京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第22218号 / 経博第606号 / 新制||経||292(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 柴田 章久, 准教授 遊喜 一洋, 准教授 高橋 修平 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM

This paper investigates how the introduce of single currency influence on the synchronization of business cycles in Central Eastern European Countries. The Hodrick-Prescott filter is applied to extract the cyclical component of real GDP for fifteen European countries and the Vector Autoregression models are applied to further investigate the influence of fiscal policy on regional economies. A database of quarterly real GDP for business cycles and quarterly current account for fiscal variables for the period: 1995Q1-2019Q4 is constructed. The main results of the study can be summarized as follows. The establishment of Economy Monetary Union has significantly increased the level of co-movement across euro area member states. There is a high degree of synchronization of business cycles in core countries than periphery countries after the introduce of common currency. For CEEC-7 including non-Eurozone countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland) and Eurozone countries (Estonia, Germany, Slovakia, Slovenia), clusters in correlation exist because their GDP reacts differently to the fiscal shocks especially after the global financial crisis and ongoing euro area crisis. Key words business cycle synchronization; Economic integration; Fiscal policy; VAR

Thesis advisor: Ryan Chahrour / Virtual Economies present an excellent opportunity to study Economic concepts and phenomena in a controllable environment where perfect data collection exists. This paper uses Macroeconomic data provided by CCP Games on EVE Online to explore how the Quantity Theory of Money holds in a world without finance. The study supports the Real Business Cycle's effects on prices. Furthermore, a quick look is taken on the effects that player imposed borders have on trade within the EVE universe. It appears that, even in a virtual world, borders tend to reduce patterns of trade among neighboring regions. These findings encourage the further use of virtual economies, particularly Massive Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games (MMORPGs), as petri dishes for the study of macroeconomic theories. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2020. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Departmental Honors. / Discipline: Economics.

Credit market frictions, captured by mortgage spreads, are potentially an equally important driver behind mortgage rate innovations as monetary policy. Possibly a significant driver of business cycles. Yet, the effect of such shocks on the economy has barely received any attention in empirical research. By estimating a SVAR for 12 EU countries, I find that mortgage spread shocks have a significant effect on GDP, consumption, residential investment and house prices. The magnitude of their effects is comparable to a monetary policy shock. I also find that the transmission mechanism of such shocks is influenced by mortgage market characteristics. A high mortgage debt-to-GDP ratio and widespread use of mortgage equity withdrawal, compared to a lower ratio and less or no use, potentially imply a stronger response in house prices and residential investment of 0.5 and 1 percent respectively.

Although the concept of real estate market analysis are more widely used in real estate industry but penetration rate seem to be misunderstood by some commentators in the market. To accomplish a penetration analysis, existing models have to extensive taking the specific characteristics of explainable model and techniques that allow the market commentators to estimate penetration rate with more accuracy through existing models by integrate changes in the macro economy. The main purpose of this paper is to explain and analyze to give some issues for the prediction of how business cycle and real estate cycle will affect to penetration rate. The scope of this thesis is to study of a medium sized complete residential development in Sweden namely Gåshaga Pirar in Lidingö municipality.

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to apply the concept of business cycle and real estate cycle in term of their characteristics, period and sequence of the cycle to the Kuala Lumpur’s office market. Design/methodology/approach - The paper is based on previous literature review, facts, reports, and data in arriving at the conclusion of the study. Findings - This paper revealed the characteristics, period and sequence between business and real estate cycles to Kuala Lumpur’s office market. Research limitation/ Implications - The framework and flows of this paper act as an introduction for the paper. Lacks of literature and attention on the business and real estate cycles in Kuala Lumpur’s have created difficulties to gains information and data on this paper. Practical implications - This paper is important for the students, government and policy maker in order to further a research and develop a foundation for business and real estate cycles in Kuala Lumpur.

The literature on nexus between trade and business cycle synchronization have provided mixed and weak evidence of the effect of trade on business cycle synchronization as a result of lack of value-added bilateral trade data which provides solution for overestimation or underestimation of shock exposure when using gross trade data. Also, due to limited data on sectoral bilateral value-added trade, the literature has not been able to pinpoint the sectors where synchronization is necessary in order to economically direct all effort to these sectors in forging economic integration. The paper uses value-added trade data to examine the impact of trade on business cycle synchronization at the aggregate level and sector level and find a highly significant and highly positive effect of trade on the aggregate level. Estimates for agriculture, manufacturing, construction, total business, electricity gas and sewer, and other service sectors yield a positive significant effect in the service sector, indicating that attention should be focus on the service and business sector when integrating economically.In this paper we examine output cycle synchronization patterns of the countries that joined the Eurozone later and countries that are in preparation or committed to join in relation to the original Eurozone members. We analysis this in the contest of before, during and recovery periods of the global financial crisis investigate the differences in the patterns of synchronization for late and future members of the Eurozone. For more understanding, we examine the pattern on disaggregate level using data for agricultural, manufacturing, construction, utility, total business and other services sectors from 1995-2015. Also, we examine the importance of trade on output synchronization both on the aggregate and disaggregate level using System GMM which not only solves the problem of endogeneity, but it estimates the persistence of business cycle synchronization efficiently. The result provides evidence of a positive persistence; however, synchronization pattern differs between late and future member states. Also, the financial crisis had a negative effect on synchronization in the European sub region as result the difference in the response by member states. The result shows a weak evidence of the importance of trade as a channel of synchronization. Even though previous studies have provided evidence improvement in UK and the Eurozone output comovement, Brexit came to pass. This has questioned the potency of the Enlargement of the Eurozone Initiative. This paper reexamines the degree of business cycle synchronization between the Euro area countries and United Kingdom in attempt to find an economic reason for Brexit. We also examine if the disaggregate economy have share similar pattern as the aggregated economy using the output synchronization in the agricultural, manufacturing, constructions, utility, total business and other service sectors between the euro area countries and United Kingdom. Using valued-added trade data between 1995 and 2015 from WTO-TiVA database we further examine effect of trade (sectoral trade) on the output (sectoral output) synchronization. Furthermore, we analyze the same questions in the contest of before and after the global financial crisis. The result show that the UK-EMU trade channel is no important to the output cycles synchronization. Also, due the unstable pattern or persistence of UK-EMU synchronization the EMU will have little effect from the Brexit if there exit one.

In this thesis, I take a theoretical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach to investigate optimal aggregate dividend policy. I make the following contribution: 1. I extend the standard DSGE model to incorporate a residual dividend policy, external financing and default and find that simulated optimal aggregate payouts are much more volatile than the observed data when other variables are close to the values observed in the data. 2. I examine the sensitivity of optimal aggregate dividend policy to the level of the representative agent¿s habit motive. My results show that, when the habit motive gets stronger, the volatility of optimal aggregate payouts increases while the volatility of aggregate consumption decreases. This is consistent with the hypothesis that investors use cash payouts from well diversified portfolios to help smooth consumption. 3. I demonstrate that the variability of optimal aggregate payouts is sensitive to capital adjustment costs. My simulated results show that costly frictions from changing the capital base of the firm cause optimal aggregate dividends and real investments to be smooth and share prices to be volatile. This finding is consistent with prior empirical observations. 4. I run simulations that support the hypothesis that optimal aggregate dividend policy is similar when the representative firm is risk averse to when it has capital adjustment costs. In both cases, optimal aggregate dividends volatility is very low. 5. In all calibrated DSGE models, apart from case 4, optimal aggregate payouts are found to be countercyclical. This supports the hypothesis that corporations prefer to hold more free cash flows for potential investment opportunities instead of paying dividends when the economy is booming, but is inconsistent with observed data. Keywords: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE), real business cycle, utility function, habits, dividends

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This dissertation topic is on the market discipline of banking institutions during the most recent business cycle (i.e., the business cycle surrounding the Great Recession of 2007). Market discipline has been a focal point of banking regulation since the implementation of Basel II in June 2004. In an attempt to provide a comprehensive framework that provides international standards on bank supervision, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision designed a complementary three-pillar structure. These include: capital requirements, the supervisory review process, and market discipline. Recent research has shown that the success of capital requirement ultimately lies in how well it serves market discipline (Gordy and Howells, 2006). The FDIC defines market discipline as: The forces in a free market (without the influence of government regulation) which tend to control and limit the riskiness of a financial institution’s investment and lending activities. Such forces include the concern of depositors for the safety of their deposits and the concern of bank investors for the safety and soundness of their institutions. Source: FDIC Glossary of Definitions Thus, regulators must account for market discipline in their design of a new regulatory framework. In Chapter 1, I investigate how the yield spreads of debt issued by U.S. Systemically Important Banks (SIBs) in the secondary market are associated with their idiosyncratic risk factors, as well as bond features, and macroeconomic factors, over a complete business cycle across the pre-crisis (2003:Q1 to 2007:Q3), crisis (2007:Q4 to 2009:Q2), and post-crisis (2009:Q3 to 2014:Q3) periods. Both Global and Domestic SIBs (G-SIBs and D-SIBs) are considered. Economic theory suggests that as SIB risk-levels increase, bond-buyers demand a higher yield spread (lower price) on the debt security (Evanoff and Wall, 2000). However, explicit and implicit government safety nets before, during, and after the crisis complicate the market discipline mechanism and make a priori predictions of the yield changes in response to increases in risk inconclusive. This renders the issue an empirical exercise. By stratifying across the most recent business cycle, I am able to investigate two broad objectives. First, I study how bond-buyers react to increases in SIB risk across the recent business cycle. Second, I investigate the degree to which the proportion of the variance in yield spreads explained by macroeconomic factors changed across the phases of the cycle. Unusual volatility during and after the financial crisis in the macroeconomic realm, and the keen focus by regulators, investors, and other stakeholders on idiosyncratic risk makes it theoretically unclear which countervailing force is the primary driver of yield spreads in the secondary market. The data includes over 9.7 million bond trades across the 26 SIBs based in the U.S. I obtain several interesting results. First, bond-buyers do react to increases in bank risk factors (leverage, credit risk, inefficiency, lack of profitability, illiquidity, and interest rate risk) by charging higher yield spreads. Second, bond buyer response to risk is sensitive to the phase of the business cycle. Third, the proportion of variance in yield spreads driven by issuing-firm-specific and bond-specific risk factors (as opposed to macroeconomic factors) increased from 29% in the pre-crisis period to 48% and 77% during the crisis and post-crisis periods, respectively. This last finding indicates that market discipline greatly improved in the two latter phases of the business cycle, and while the literature on market discipline following the 2007-2009 crises is still scant, this result is consistent with some extant studies (Balasubramnian and Cyree, 2014). Despite unprecedented accommodative fiscal and monetary policies during and after the financial crisis, market discipline in the secondary bond market has strengthened considerably, providing evidence that regulatory intervention and market discipline can work in tandem. These results can advise regulators, investors, bank risk managers, and others, on how bond traders react to issuing-bank, bond, and macroeconomic factors. For example, regulators and policy makers should account for the effect of market discipline in formulation of their monetary and fiscal policies designed to achieve specific targets because, otherwise, they may miss the targets. In Chapter 2, I study the impact of bank risk taking and macroeconomic factors on the growth of interest-bearing deposits and interest rates paid on those deposits for U.S. commercial banks with less than $10 billion in total assets (known as commercial banking organizations or CBOs). The sample period for deposit growth covers the recent business cycle (2003:Q1 to 2014:Q4) and it is broken down into pre-crisis (2003:Q1 to 2007:Q3), crisis (2007:Q4 to 2009:Q2), and post-crisis (2009:Q3 to 2014:Q4) sub-periods in order to contrast the patterns of effects over these phases of the business cycle. Deposit pricing equations are estimated over the post-crisis period only due to data limitations. Separate deposit growth rate equations are estimated across four deposit types (transaction, savings, large, and small time deposits), while separate deposit pricing equations are estimated across 30 deposit types (including various terms and balances for certificates of deposits as well as personal and business money market accounts and interest checking accounts, among others). Bank heterogeneity is accounted for via fixed effects estimation. I obtain several interesting results. First, there is a relationship between bank risk taking and subsequent deposit withdrawals over the three sub-sample periods, indicating that depositors do respond to bank riskiness under the pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis environments (market discipline). Second, there is also market discipline in deposit pricing as evidenced by the statistically significant and consistent relationship between bank risk taking and deposit pricing across all 30 different product types I study. Third, when deposits are disaggregated into insured and uninsured components, I find that the uninsured depositors react to changes in bank credit risk via deposit withdrawals (during the pre-crisis period) and pricing (during the post-crisis period) to a greater extent than do the fully insured depositors, supporting the presence of moral hazard. Fourth, since the pre-crisis period, macroeconomic factors have become even a greater force in driving the changes in deposit growth because of market intervention and implicit and explicit government guarantees. As macroeconomic factors drive more of the variation in deposit growth, mechanisms to keep CBO risk in check depend less on the depositors and banks and more on macroeconomic policy. In Chapter 3, I investigate the impact of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank) of 2010 on accounting fees for commercial banks with less than $10 billion in total assets (known as commercial banking organizations or CBOs), while controlling for their litigation risk via legal fees spent on outside counsel. Using panel data from 2008 through 2014 for U.S. CBOs, I find that litigation risk is the primary driver of accounting fees for “large” CBOs with $1 billion - $10 billion in total assets. This finding is contrary to previous studies, which attribute the majority of explained variance in those fees to firm size alone. To my knowledge, these results are the first to explicitly confirm the litigation risk-audit fee hypothesis (Seetharaman et al., 2002) for the banking industry. In terms of magnitude, I find that for every one percent increase in legal fees, accounting fees will increase from two to nine basis points, depending on CBO size. Controlling for bank-specific risk and the general business cycle, our results show that Dodd-Frank has the greatest impact on accounting fees for small CBOs (<$500 million in total assets), which experience an increase in these expenses of 73% due to the drafting of the Act, and an increase of 105% due to the subsequent passage (compared to an increase of 56% and 86% in accounting fees for the large CBO cohort during the drafting and subsequent passage of Dodd-Frank, respectively). I also find that a decrease in bank leverage (for CBOs of all sizes) and an increase in real estate loans to total loans (for large CBOs) are indicative of higher accounting fees. / Economics