Policymakers and scholars universally accept and recognise the influence of small, macro, and medium enterprises (SMMEs) on stimulating economic growth and job creation. South Africa in particular, has the challenge of a high unemployment rate, particularly among the youth, coupled with high inequality levels and stagnant economic growth over the recent years. These challenges have made the role of SMMEs even more important in South Africa. Despite the known importance of the influence of SMEs on the economy and the government initiatives to grow SMEs, SMEs continue to face challenges of access to finance and high failure rates in their start-up phases. Against this background, this study examined the key reasons SMMEs struggle to gain access to banking finance with the aim of understanding the root causes of those reasons. This study aimed to provide solutions to addressing the root causes of SMMEs inaccessibility to finance to narrowing the finance gap in this segment. The study employed the parallel convergent mixed methods approach that combined both qualitative and quantitative approaches in data collection and analysis. Convenient sampling was used to identify the SMMEs for quantitative research. The empirical evidence was collected using survey data. The survey was distributed among the SMMEs sampled. For qualitative research, purposeful sampling was used to identify the research participants. Four bank managers working specifically with SME finance were selected and approached for the research. Qualitative data was collected using semi-structured interviews. The study found that most SMMEs struggle to get access to finance with the majority citing a poor credit record as the main reason for being declined for credit. Most SMMEs are deterred from applying for banking finance and find the processes long and complicated. The study also found that the root cause of SMMEs low access to banking finance is a lack of education and understanding of bank processes and factors influencing their creditworthiness. These include poor governance by SMMEs and lack of proper bookkeeping. It is recommended that SMMEs upskill themselves with financial literacy and basic business management skills. Banks should find innovative ways of assessing creditworthiness for SMMEs and should consider other data sources. A collaboration between banks, government agents, and DFIs is advised.

Credit market frictions, captured by mortgage spreads, are potentially an equally important driver behind mortgage rate innovations as monetary policy. Possibly a significant driver of business cycles. Yet, the effect of such shocks on the economy has barely received any attention in empirical research. By estimating a SVAR for 12 EU countries, I find that mortgage spread shocks have a significant effect on GDP, consumption, residential investment and house prices. The magnitude of their effects is comparable to a monetary policy shock. I also find that the transmission mechanism of such shocks is influenced by mortgage market characteristics. A high mortgage debt-to-GDP ratio and widespread use of mortgage equity withdrawal, compared to a lower ratio and less or no use, potentially imply a stronger response in house prices and residential investment of 0.5 and 1 percent respectively.

Essay 1: Expectation-Driven House Prices, Debt Default and Inflation Dynamics We contribute to the literature on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with housing collateral by including shocks to house price expectations. We also incorporate endogenous mortgage defaults that are rarely included in DSGE models with housing collateral. We use this model to study the effects of variations in house price expectations on macroeconomic dynamics and their implications for monetary policy. Model simulations show that an increase in expected future house prices leads to a decline in mortgage default rate and interest rates on household and business loans, whereas it leads to an increase in house prices, housing demand, household debt, business debt, bank leverage ratio and economic activity. In contrast to previous studies, we find that inflation is low during a house price boom. Finally, we show that monetary policy that takes into account household credit growth reduces the volatility of output and dampens a rise in housing demand, household debt and bank leverage ratio that enhances financial stability. However, a central bank that reacts to household credit growth increases the volatility of inflation. / Essay 2: House Price Expectations, Boom-Bust Cycles and Implications for Monetary Policy This essay examines the role of household expectations about future house prices and their implications for boom-bust cycles and monetary policy. Our findings are as follows. First, waves of optimism and pessimism about future house prices generate boom-bust cycles in house prices, financial activities (household debt, business debt, bank leverage, interest rates on household and business loans) and the real economy (housing demand, consumption, employment, investment and output). Second, we find that inflation declines during a house price boom and increases during a house price burst. Third, we find that monetary policy that reacts to household credit growth reduces the magnitude of boom-bust cycles and improves household welfare. Fourth, we find that the case for taking into account household credit growth becomes stronger in an economy in which the bank capital to asset ratio requirement is low, interest rates on loans and deposits adjust immediately to changes in the policy rate, or the household sector is highly indebted. / Essay 3: Credit Disruptions and the Spillover Effects between the Household and Business Sectors This essay examines the effects of credit supply disruptions in a New Keynesian DSGE model with housing collateral and working capital channels. A tightening of business credit conditions creates negative spillovers from the business sector to the household sector through labor income and housing collateral channels. A tightening of household credit conditions has negative spillover effects on the business sector via the housing collateral channel. We find that spillovers are more sensitive to changes in leverage where the shock occurs. A negative business credit shock creates upward pressure on inflation, whereas a negative household credit shock creates downward pressure on inflation. The working capital channel magnifies the response of inflation to a business credit shock, whereas it dampens the response of inflation to a household credit shock.

This thesis argues that the financial sector played a positive, but limited role in British economic growth from 1850 to 1913. It examines empirically the role played by different types of financial institutions: commercial banks, stock markets and merchant banks. To this end, the thesis uses recently developed time series and dynamic panel methods for the econometric analysis, alongside new data on different parts of the financial system. The results suggest that at a national level, the growth of commercial banks had a limited impact on British economic development over the long run, and stock markets had no impact. However, changes in bank lending influenced economic growth to a significant extent in the short term. Growing conservatism in bank lending practices did not significantly increase credit constraints, as had been previously suspected. Findings from new geographically disaggregated data indicate that the spread of bank offices improved the economic performance of English and Welsh counties. Increased concentration of the banking industry did not hinder economic growth, a result that challenges widespread suggestions in the relevant literature. Moreover, the development of provincial stock exchanges – exchanges outside London - did not influence county-level economic growth, contrary to the view that they were important for the expansion of local industry. Finally, this thesis is the first to assess econometrically the role of merchant banks. It demonstrates that their trade financing activities were beneficial not only for the growth of British international trade, but also for that of the domestic economy.

Submitted by Pedro Bogado (pedrobogado@gmail.com) on 2013-01-10T14:13:41Z No. of bitstreams: 1 PedroBogado_final.pdf: 351157 bytes, checksum: 8e8aaaca8adbafbbe0148af641564a29 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2013-01-29T16:26:40Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 PedroBogado_final.pdf: 351157 bytes, checksum: 8e8aaaca8adbafbbe0148af641564a29 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-01-29T16:28:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PedroBogado_final.pdf: 351157 bytes, checksum: 8e8aaaca8adbafbbe0148af641564a29 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-11-03 / The identification problem of supply and demand equations for testing the bank lending channel has been discussed in recent decades. This work evaluates the identification strategy carried out in a VECM setting to determine if there is empirical evidence of a bank lending channel in the transmission of monetary policy in Brazil. Monthly aggregate data was used for the period 2001 through 2010. / O problema da identificação de equações de oferta e demanda de crédito para verificação da existência do canal de crédito tem sido sendo bastante discutido nas últimas décadas. Este trabalho avalia a estratégia de identificação via estimação de um modelo de um Modelo Vetorial de Correção de Erros para determinar a relevância do canal de crédito no Brasil. Foram utilizados dados agregados mensais compreendendo o período de 2001 até 2010.

Diese Doktorarbeit besteht aus drei Aufsätzen, in welchen die Reaktion von Finanzinstitutionen auf Geldpolitik analysiert wird. In dem ersten Aufsatz finde ich anhand eines Bayesian VAR, dass eine Erhöhung des Leitzinses zu einer zusätzlichen Kreditvergabe in Nichtbanken (NBFI) führt. Banken verleihen wie bereits bekannt weniger. Der Grund für die gegensätzliche Bewegung liegt in der unterschiedliche Art der Finanzierung. Dieser Befund legt nahe, dass die Existenz von NBFI die Volatilität der aggregierten Kreditvergabe zu geldpolitischen Schocks verringern könnte. Zusätzlich bietet die Analyse einen Erklärungsansatz für die Beobachtung, dass sich die Kreditvergabe seit der Finanzkrise stockend entwickelt hat. Im zweiten Aufsatz knüpfe ich an diese empirische Untersuchung an, indem ich ein theoretisches Modell mit unterschiedlichen Arten von Firmenfinanzierung entwerfe. Haushalte müssen sich zwischen festverzinsichlichen und erfolgsbedingten Sparmöglichkeiten entscheiden. Auf Grundlage des Modells von Bernanke, Gertler und Gilchrist (1999) mikrofundiere ich die Entscheidung über Unternehmensgründung in Form von Eigenkapitalinvestitionen. Im dritten Aufsatz entwickele ich ein geschätztes DSGE Modell mit Finanzierungsfriktionen, welches in der Lage ist, die empirischen Ergebnisse zu replizieren. Ich untersuche, wie sich die Regulierung von Schattenbanken auf eine Volkswirtschaft am ZLB auswirkt. Konsumvolatilität wird reduziert, wenn Schattenbankenkredite stattdessen von Banken vergeben werden. Alternativ dazu führt die Behandlung von Schattenbanken wie Investment Fonds dazu, dass eine Volkswirtschaft am ZLB eine mildere Rezession und einen schnelleren Austritt erlebt. Der Grund liegt darin, dass ein Nachfrageschock, der die Volkswirtschaft zum ZLB bringt, eine Reaktion hervorruft, die vergleichbar mit geldpolitischen Schocks ist, da am ZLB keine Möglichkeit der Leitzinsverringerung besteht. / This thesis consists of three essays that analyze the reaction of financial institutions to monetary policy. In the first essay, I use a Bayesian VAR to show that an increase in the monetary policy rate raises credit intermediation by non-bank financial institutions (NBFI). As is well known, credit intermediation by banks is reduced. The movement in opposite directions is explained by the difference in funding. This finding suggests that the existence of NBFI may decrease aggregate volatility following monetary policy shocks. Following this evidence, I construct a theoretical model that includes different types of funding in the second essay. Households face a savings choice between state contingent (equity) and non-state contingent (debt) assets. I use the financial accelerator model of Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999) as a basis and microfound the decision by which new net worth in entrepreneurs is created. A Bayesian estimation suggests a change in the survival rate of entrepreneurs, affecting impulse responses. The analysis suggests that models that use the financial accelerator should include endogenous firm entry if variables regarding household portfolios or shocks directly affecting firm net worth are considered. In the third essay, I develop an estimated monetary DSGE model with funding market frictions that is able to replicate the empirical facts. In a counterfactual exercise I study how the regulation of shadow banks affects an economy at the ZLB. Consumption volatility is reduced when shadow bank assets are directly held by commercial banks. Alternatively, regulating shadow banks like investment funds results in a milder recession during, and a quicker escape from, the ZLB. The reason is that a recessionary demand shock that moves the economy to the ZLB has similar effects to a monetary tightening due to the inability to reduce the policy rate below zero.

The complexity of credit-money is conceived as the central issue in the banking-macro nexus, which the author considers as a structural as well as process component of the evolving economy. This nexus is significant for the stability as well as the fragility of the economic system, because it connects the monetary with the real domain of economic production and consumption. The evolution of credit rules shapes economic networks between households, firms, banks, governments and central banks in space and time. The properties and characteristics of this evolutionary process are discussed in three sections. First, the author looks into the origins of the theory of money and its role for contemporary monetary economics. Second, he briefly discusses current theoretical foundations of top-down as well as bottom-up approaches to the banking-macro nexus, such as dynamic stochastic general equilibrium and agent-based models. In the third part he suggests an evolutionary framework, building on a generic rule-based approach, to arrive at standards for bottom-up foundations in agent-based macroeconomic models with a banking sector. (author's abstract)

本研究使用資金成本(cost of capital)、信用供給(credit supply)和資源基礎理論（resource-based view）來探討政府政策與公司投資決策的關係。在資金成本(cost of capital）理論的解釋下，政府政策實施後，企業外部融資成本的下降使企業無謂的損失減少，增加企業投資的動機。同時本研究使用信用供給(credit supply)理論來解釋當政府政策增加金融市場的信用供給後，企業外部融資限制的降低促使其進行投資。結果顯示在資源基礎理論（resource-based view）之下，國家政策對公司投資決策產生顯著的影響，並不是透過改變公司的外部融資條件實現。 / Our research used the cost of capital credit supply and resource-based view to explain the changing in investment decisions after implement policy. The government policy effect will increase the willingness of investment. Meanwhile, we used the credit supply theory to explain the changing of external financing constraints in companies increases investment. Our results showed that based on the resource-based view, government policy significantly affects the investment decisions without having impact on external financing.

The potential of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in promoting economic growth in both developed and developing countries is widely accepted and documented by both scholars and policy makers. Particularly lacking are studies on the evidence in support of the importance of credit rationing to the sustainability of SMEs in an emerging economy like South Africa’s. This specific problem, especially in the developing countries, has been identified as the major bottleneck in realising socio-economic potentials of SMEs in those countries. However, one of the major ways of addressing the challenge of inadequate funding that exists within the SME sector is the use of bank credit. This study was therefore undertaken to explore the role of commercial banks in the provision of credit to the SMEs in South Africa. This study focuses on the issue of the relationship between the banking industry and SMEs. In particular, the problem of credit rationing of, and discrimination against SMEs by commercial banks was investigated. Because credit rationing and finance gaps can stem from imperfections on either supply-side (banks), or demand-side (SMEs), or both, the intention of the study was to examine both of these variables in order to uncover the implications of their relationships. The empirical analysis is based on survey data collected by means of a structured questionnaire which was distributed amongst banks and SME borrowers in the Gauteng Province of South Africa. Contrary to the general view that commercial banks are disinclined to provide credit to SMEs, the study found that South African banks are keen to serve the SMEs and are therefore making efforts to penetrate this potentially profitable market segment. However, several obstacles are potentially restricting the involvement of banks with SMEs in South Africa. The findings revealed that regulations such as the Financial Intelligence Centre Act (FICA) and the National Credit Act (NCA) came out strongly as major hindrances of bank financing to SMEs. Furthermore, it was shown that compliance with the NCA was ranked higher than credit history and profitability as a factor hindering the approval of SME loans. - iii - However, by using the structural equation modelling (SEM), the results also show that there is a positive and significant influence of lending technology and collateral on the supply of credit to SMEs. Variables such as creditworthiness, collateral and e-banking were found to have a positive and significant impact on the provision of credit to SMEs by commercial banks. For both the supply- and demand-side analysis, technology came out as the most important predictor of SME access to finance. This means that banks should strive to align their lending techniques with the dynamic technological developments so as to reach as many SMEs as possible even in the geographically dispersed regions. It is anticipated that improving SME access to bank credit could be the key to the growth and sustainability of SMEs, the alleviation of poverty and unemployment; and consequently leading to the growth of the South African economy. / Business Management / D. Com. (Business Management)