African countries have over the last few decades, experienced a thorny path towards sustained economic growth. Quite a number of researchers have opined that a major factor responsible for their stunted growth path is the prevalence of corruption in the governments of many African countries. However, a group of scholars, called revisionists, have suggested that corruption actually acts as grease in the wheel that ensures the smooth running of an economy, by providing a mechanism to evade inefficient bureaucratic procedures and allow more equitable representation of minority members of the society. With the increasing exposure of African economies to the international community, there is a need to examine the obtainable evidence in relation to corruption and economic growth in African countries. This thesis, therefore, aims to establish the nature of the relationship between corruption and economic growth in the selected African countries. The growth rate of gross domestic product per capita is used to represent the variable, economic growth. The study employs the use of panel data fixed effects and random effect estimation techniques, across 18 countries, over the period of 1997 – 2016. The results show that corruption has a positive relationship with economic growth in the selected African countries. This is in line with the grease in the wheel argument for corruption proposed by revisionists. The results also indicate that corruption has a moderately significant impact on economic growth at 10% level of significance. The literature review suggests that corruption affects economic growth directly and indirectly through mechanisms such as investment (private and public), human capital, openness, and institutional mechanisms, among others.

In this thesis we examine the colour forecasting process, its methodology and how it is communicated and used in fashion companies. The study is foremost based on qualitative research and on semi-structured interviews with people within the forecasting industry. We have divided the data collection process that constitutes the basis of the actual forecast into steps, which consist of gathering both objective facts and more soft, subjective experiences. After having collected the data, colour forecasters start their analysis by breaking them down into thematical categories that depict specific patterns (themes). We have identified colour expertise, intuition, creativity and inspiration as the factors that help the forecaster interpret those patterns. The final forecasted colour stories are being presented in different media and contexts. Besides design style, market, customer base and lead-time, it is foremost the differentmanagement philosophies of either building creative, solid collections or fast fashion that define how to use the colour forecasting material. To help the reader understand the process we have constructed a model (aDaMas). / Program: Master in Fashion Management with specialisation in Fashion Marketing and Retailing

Este trabalho consiste basicamente na realização do teste de uma gama de variáveis explicativas anuais, oriundas da literatura sobre crescimento econômico, para os estados brasileiros. O objeto primeiro é identificar quais delas são robustas em apresentar relação com as variações do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) per capita, ou seja, quais se mantêm significativas quando testadas junto a diferentes conjuntos de outras variáveis explicativas. O período analisado compreende os anos de 1986 a 2002. Resende e Figueiredo1 realizaram esse mesmo trabalho utilizando dados decenais entre 1960 e 2000. Assim, um segundo objetivo é comparar os resultados de longo prazo, obtido por Resende e Figueiredo, com os de curto prazo. Para tanto, empregou-se o teste de robustez proposto por Levine e Renelt2, o Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA), e o teste desenvolvido por Sala-i-Martin3, que argumenta que, em vez de analisar os extremos das estimativas dos coeficientes de uma variável específica, é necessário fazer a análise de toda a distribuição desses coeficientes.Com base nos testes efetuados, conclui-se que, no curto prazo, atividade agrícola, setor de serviços e água encanada têm correlação robusta com as taxas de crescimento do PIB per capita; apesar da atividade agrícola se revelar o fator de maior relação com o crescimento econômico no curto prazo, os dados não demonstraram nenhuma robustez no longo. Quanto à ocorrência de convergência condicional dos PIBs per capita estaduais, esta se confirmou tanto para o curto quanto para o longo prazo. Por outro lado, mortalidade infantil, fecundidade e carga tributária apresentam correlação robusta com as taxas de crescimento do PIB per capita somente no longo prazo. A taxa de urbanização demonstra correlação positiva no curto prazo, mas negativa no longo. / The present work basically consists of examination of a set of explanatory annual variables, whose sort derived from Economic Growth literature, to the Brazilian states. The prime aim is to identify which of those variables presents robust correlation with the per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rates, researching the 1986 to 2002 period. Resende e Figueiredo have done the same work with decennial data between 1960 and 2000. In this way, another aim is comparing those long term results with the short one. In order to do that, one applied the Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) test proposed by Levine and Renelt, as well as the test developed by Sala-i-Martin, who argued it is necessary to analyze which and all coefficients, instead of to the extremes only. Based in those tests, one concludes that the variables which present robust correlations with the per capita GDP rates in the short term are farming and service sectors as well canalized water. Although the farming was revealed the main factor of growth in the short term, it did not presented robustness at all in the long term. In the other hand, babyish mortality rate, fertility rate and tax burden presented robust correlation only in the long term. The urban rate showed positive robust correlation in the short term, despite of negative one in the long term.

Income inequality and its relationship to long-term GDP per capita growth has been researched for decades since the development of the Kuznet’s Curve. Theoretical and empirical research has shown mixed results including positive, negative, non-existent, or statistically insignificant relationships. Empirical research on income inequality and economic growth in the United States has also shown mixed results. In addition to using existing data, this paper uses originally-constructed Gini Coefficients from 2005 to 2009. A statistically significant negative correlation between income inequality, and both short-term growth and long-term growth is found in the analysis of this data. Finally, this paper attempts to justify a causal relationship between income inequality and long-term growth.

As a culturally distinctive region, Asia was chosen as the sample for this study. This empirical study investigated what the major trends of democratisation were in Asia between 1981 and 2005: why some countries became democratic while other countries failed to follow suit during that period. The main research hypothesis was: “That is it was mainly economic development that drove democratisation in Asia between 1981 and 2005”. Although some studies have studied the impact of economic development on democratisation in Asia, their findings have been inconclusive and focuses sometimes different. [To investigate the research hypothesis, 24 Asian countries were selected…measurement tools used etc…] For this research work, statistical and case study methods were applied. The data used in the analyses were collected from established data sources e.g. Freedom House (Freedom in the World, n.d.) and United Nations Statistics Division (UN Stat, n.d.). Repeated Measures in Linear Mixed Modeling (LMM) were used to analyse the quantitative data. Three case studies supplemented the findings of statistical analyses. Historical information and institutional and legal facts were also used in the case studies. This study found that increases in the level of economic development along with its equitable distribution in society and positive roles of political actors increase the level of democratisation in Asia. Some pro-democratic political and social institutions, such as tradition of parliamentarianism, and international organisations, for example Bretton wood institutions, also led to democratisation. A low extent of national political divide was found to result in a considerably high level of democratisation in a country where confrontation between major political forces is the main feature of politics. This study also found that a partial democracy with Asian values, economic legitimacy, a lack of corruption and a “systematic control” over opposition politicians can survive, and is not prone to higher level of democratisation. The Taiwan case revealed that, amongst other factors, the role of political actors and economic equity along with economic development is also vital for democratisation. The Singapore case explained how a “hybrid regime” in a rich country outsmarts democratisation. The study of Bangladesh provides an idea about other elements, e.g. lower level of political confrontation, that push for higher levels of democratisation.

Este trabalho consiste basicamente na realização do teste de uma gama de variáveis explicativas anuais, oriundas da literatura sobre crescimento econômico, para os estados brasileiros. O objeto primeiro é identificar quais delas são robustas em apresentar relação com as variações do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) per capita, ou seja, quais se mantêm significativas quando testadas junto a diferentes conjuntos de outras variáveis explicativas. O período analisado compreende os anos de 1986 a 2002. Resende e Figueiredo1 realizaram esse mesmo trabalho utilizando dados decenais entre 1960 e 2000. Assim, um segundo objetivo é comparar os resultados de longo prazo, obtido por Resende e Figueiredo, com os de curto prazo. Para tanto, empregou-se o teste de robustez proposto por Levine e Renelt2, o Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA), e o teste desenvolvido por Sala-i-Martin3, que argumenta que, em vez de analisar os extremos das estimativas dos coeficientes de uma variável específica, é necessário fazer a análise de toda a distribuição desses coeficientes.Com base nos testes efetuados, conclui-se que, no curto prazo, atividade agrícola, setor de serviços e água encanada têm correlação robusta com as taxas de crescimento do PIB per capita; apesar da atividade agrícola se revelar o fator de maior relação com o crescimento econômico no curto prazo, os dados não demonstraram nenhuma robustez no longo. Quanto à ocorrência de convergência condicional dos PIBs per capita estaduais, esta se confirmou tanto para o curto quanto para o longo prazo. Por outro lado, mortalidade infantil, fecundidade e carga tributária apresentam correlação robusta com as taxas de crescimento do PIB per capita somente no longo prazo. A taxa de urbanização demonstra correlação positiva no curto prazo, mas negativa no longo. / The present work basically consists of examination of a set of explanatory annual variables, whose sort derived from Economic Growth literature, to the Brazilian states. The prime aim is to identify which of those variables presents robust correlation with the per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rates, researching the 1986 to 2002 period. Resende e Figueiredo have done the same work with decennial data between 1960 and 2000. In this way, another aim is comparing those long term results with the short one. In order to do that, one applied the Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) test proposed by Levine and Renelt, as well as the test developed by Sala-i-Martin, who argued it is necessary to analyze which and all coefficients, instead of to the extremes only. Based in those tests, one concludes that the variables which present robust correlations with the per capita GDP rates in the short term are farming and service sectors as well canalized water. Although the farming was revealed the main factor of growth in the short term, it did not presented robustness at all in the long term. In the other hand, babyish mortality rate, fertility rate and tax burden presented robust correlation only in the long term. The urban rate showed positive robust correlation in the short term, despite of negative one in the long term.

Atropelamentos de animais silvestres são a principal causa de mortalidade de origem antrópica de vertebrados terrestres. Além da mortalidade direta, as populações animais também são fragmentadas e isoladas por rodovias, que podem atuar como filtro ou barreira ao movimento da fauna. A indicação e implementação de medidas mitigadoras têm sido uma estratégia cada vez importante, ampliando a necessidade de desenvolver e qualificar métodos para avaliar os impactos e indicar áreas prioritárias. Essa tese de doutorado foi concebida com a preocupação de investigar certos temas relacionados à mortalidade e fragmentação por rodovias. No primeiro capítulo, discuto como a qualificação da pesquisa e do licenciamento podem colaborar com este cenário. No segundo capítulo, apresento uma revisão de diferentes métodos de análise espacial utilizados para testar se existe a presença de agregações de atropelamento e para localizar onde estão estas agregações. No terceiro capítulo, apresento os resultados de um modelo de simulação baseado em indivíduos, que mostra que a localização dos hotspots muda ao longo do tempo em função da diminuição das populações próximas a trechos de rodovias com maior letalidade, o que torna a mortalidade per capita um melhor indicador da necessidade de mitigação. No último capítulo avaliei o efeito da rede de rodovias na fragmentação de habitat nos campos sulinos do Rio Grande do Sul, e demonstro que considerar o efeito da rede de rodovias como uma barreira aos movimentos da fauna modifica de forma severa a percepção que temos sobre o status de conservação dos campos. Esta tese pode ter dois tipos principais de implicações: a aplicação direta dos resultados aqui apresentados nas avaliações dos impactos de rodovias e planejamento da mitigação, e a influência em novos rumos de pesquisa na ecologia de rodovias. / Roads are responsible for a series of impacts to ecosystems, and some authors point out that road-kills are the main cause of terrestrial vertebrate mortality from anthropogenic causes. Besides direct mortality, wildlife populations are also fragmented and isolated by roads, as they can act as barriers or filters to wildlife movement. Implementing mitigation measures had become an important conservation strategy, but the need to prioritize areas brings the urgency to develop and qualify methods to assess road impacts and indicate priority areas. This doctorate thesis was developed with the concern of investigating subjects related to wildlife mortality and fragmentation by roads. In the first chapter I discuss how qualifying research and environmental licensing may contribute in this scenario. In the second chapter, I present a review of different methods of spatial analysis that have been used to test the presence of clustering on road-kill data and to identify road-kill hotpots. In the third chapter, I present the results of simulations of an individual-based model that shows that the location of road-kill hotspots change in time due to population depression near high-risk road segments; making per capita mortality a better indicator of the need for mitigation. In the last chapter, I evaluated the effect of the road network on habitat fragmentation of South Brazilian grasslands in Rio Grande do Sul State, and I show that considering the road network as a barrier changes severely our perception about grassland conservation status. This thesis may have two types of implications: the direct applications of the results presented here in environmental impact assessment of roads and in mitigation planning, or the influence on new paths to study road effects on wildlife.

The current study utilized two experiments to assess Smith's (1981) simple per capita-maximization model, which provides a quantitative framework for predicting optimal group sizes in social foraging contexts. Participants engaged in a social foraging task where they chose to forage for points exchangeable for lottery prizes either alone or in a group that has agreed to pool and share all resources equally. In Experiment 1, groups (“settlements”) of 10 or 12 participants made repeated group membership choices. Settlements were exposed to three conditions in which the optimal group size was either 2, 5, or 2 for the 10 person settlement or 3, 4, or 6 for the 12 person settlement. A linear regression of the data from Experiment 1 revealed a strong relationship between the observed group sizes and group sizes predicted by the simple per capita maximization model. Experiment 2 was a systematic replication of Experiment 1 in which single participants foraged for shared resources with groups of automated players in a computerized simulation. Automated player group choices mirrored group choices of participants in Experiment 1; excluding the data for the best performing participant. Thus, the participant acted essentially in the stead of the best performing participant for each condition. Two logistic regressions provided mixed support for the model, while failing to replicate the results of Experiment 1, providing mixed support for the use of the simple per capita maximization model in predicting group sizes in social foraging contexts.

Este trabalho consiste basicamente na realização do teste de uma gama de variáveis explicativas anuais, oriundas da literatura sobre crescimento econômico, para os estados brasileiros. O objeto primeiro é identificar quais delas são robustas em apresentar relação com as variações do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) per capita, ou seja, quais se mantêm significativas quando testadas junto a diferentes conjuntos de outras variáveis explicativas. O período analisado compreende os anos de 1986 a 2002. Resende e Figueiredo1 realizaram esse mesmo trabalho utilizando dados decenais entre 1960 e 2000. Assim, um segundo objetivo é comparar os resultados de longo prazo, obtido por Resende e Figueiredo, com os de curto prazo. Para tanto, empregou-se o teste de robustez proposto por Levine e Renelt2, o Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA), e o teste desenvolvido por Sala-i-Martin3, que argumenta que, em vez de analisar os extremos das estimativas dos coeficientes de uma variável específica, é necessário fazer a análise de toda a distribuição desses coeficientes.Com base nos testes efetuados, conclui-se que, no curto prazo, atividade agrícola, setor de serviços e água encanada têm correlação robusta com as taxas de crescimento do PIB per capita; apesar da atividade agrícola se revelar o fator de maior relação com o crescimento econômico no curto prazo, os dados não demonstraram nenhuma robustez no longo. Quanto à ocorrência de convergência condicional dos PIBs per capita estaduais, esta se confirmou tanto para o curto quanto para o longo prazo. Por outro lado, mortalidade infantil, fecundidade e carga tributária apresentam correlação robusta com as taxas de crescimento do PIB per capita somente no longo prazo. A taxa de urbanização demonstra correlação positiva no curto prazo, mas negativa no longo. / The present work basically consists of examination of a set of explanatory annual variables, whose sort derived from Economic Growth literature, to the Brazilian states. The prime aim is to identify which of those variables presents robust correlation with the per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rates, researching the 1986 to 2002 period. Resende e Figueiredo have done the same work with decennial data between 1960 and 2000. In this way, another aim is comparing those long term results with the short one. In order to do that, one applied the Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) test proposed by Levine and Renelt, as well as the test developed by Sala-i-Martin, who argued it is necessary to analyze which and all coefficients, instead of to the extremes only. Based in those tests, one concludes that the variables which present robust correlations with the per capita GDP rates in the short term are farming and service sectors as well canalized water. Although the farming was revealed the main factor of growth in the short term, it did not presented robustness at all in the long term. In the other hand, babyish mortality rate, fertility rate and tax burden presented robust correlation only in the long term. The urban rate showed positive robust correlation in the short term, despite of negative one in the long term.

abstract: Before 1990s, the relationship between money supply and inflation was positively correlated, however, from 1990 onwards, the US and other major developed countries entered into a new financial era with a typical belief that hyper money supply coexisted with lower inflation. This phenomenon is called “the paradox of inflation”. Traditional theories cannot provide reasonable explanations of this new phenomenon. In my study, I have taken the linear filtering techniques which Lucas developed in 1980, and the recursive estimation method, as well as the chow test and F-test, and choose the data of the US, Britain, Japan, Germany, Euro area, BRICKs and some members of ASEAN, from 1960 to 2012, to study the relationship between annual rate of M2 growth and CPI inflation. The results show that in most sample developed and developing countries the positive correlation relationship between money supply and inflation began to weaken since the 1990s, and “the paradox of inflation” is now a common phenomenon. In my paper, I attempt to provide a new explanation of “the paradox of inflation”. I conjecture that, in the past two decades, some advanced countries were becoming a “relatively wealthy society”, which means that commodity supply as well as money supply is abundant. I state that the US is a “relatively wealthy society” and try to determine what features could mark a “relatively wealthy society”. I choose the credit growth rate of nonfinancial sectors and the ratio of dividends to investment to represent the production inclination of the business sector, and choose the income per capita and the GINI index to represent the consumption inclination of the resident sector. Then, through a semi parametric varying-coefficient regression model, I found that, in the US, when the credit growth of the business sector is under 5%, the ratio of dividends to investment is over 0.20, the per capita income is more than $30,000, and the GINI index is over 0.45, the country becomes a “relatively wealthy society”. Base on this new explanation, I can conclude “in the relatively wealthy society, inflation is no longer a monetary phenomenon; it is a wealth allocation phenomenon”. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Business Administration 2015