保險業的清償能力一直是保險監理機關關心的重點，保險公司一旦失卻清償能力，所影響的將不只是該公司，還有龐大的保戶及社會大眾。自西元1988年開始，即有許多學者提出早期預警模型，針對保險公司的清償能力作預測，希望可以及早發覺問題保險公司，直到西元1994年，開始有學者以類神經網路作為預測工具，結果發現，其預測準確度較過去多篇文獻所認為的邏輯斯迴歸來的精確。 　　本論文的目的在利用新的類神經網路建構保險公司失卻清償能力的早期預警系統，並將其結果與邏輯斯迴歸之結果作比較，樣本為美國產險公司，實證結果顯示，若以類神經網路作為預測的工具，在預測破產公司方面，其結果較邏輯斯迴歸好；但若是在預測健全公司方面，則為邏輯斯迴歸較好。另外，就整體的預測準確度而言，則以類神經網路的預測結果較好。 / The solvency of insurance industry plays an important role in society and has been the focus of insurance regulation. The insurer insolvency will affect not only company itself, but also the policyholders and society. The better method up to 1994 to identify insurer insolvencies in most prior researches is logistic regression. Some scholars use neural networks to predict insurer insolvencies. The result showed that neural network performed better than logistic regression model. 　　The purpose of this paper aims to construct an early warning system for property and casualty insurer insolvencies prediction and to compare the predictive ability of neural network and logistic regression model. The results show that neural network performs better than logistic regression model in classifying insolvent insurers. On contrast, logistic regression model performs better in classifying solvent insurers. Overall, the neural network performs better than its counterpart based on all sample firms.

Future seismic losses including the physical, economic and social ones as well as casualties concern a wide range of authorities varying from geophysical and earthquake engineers, physical and economic planners to insurance companies. As its many components involve inherent uncertainties, a probabilistic approach is required to estimate seismic losses. This study aims to propose a probabilistic method for estimating seismic losses, and to predict the potential seismic loss for the residential buildings for a selected district in Bursa, which is a highly industrialized city in Northwestern Turkey. To verify the methodology against a past large event, loss estimations are initially performed for a district in D&uuml / zce, and the method is calibrated with loss data from the 12 November 1999 D&uuml / zce Earthquake. The main components of the proposed loss model are seismic hazard, building vulnerability functions and loss as a function of damage states of buildings. To quantify the regional hazard, a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approach is adopted. For different types of building structures, probability of exceeding predefined damage states for a given hazard level is determined using appropriate fragility curve sets. The casualty model for a given damage level considers the occupancy type, population of the building, occupancy at the time of earthquake occurrence, number of trapped occupants in the collapse, injury distribution at collapse and mortality post collapse. Economic loss is calculated by multiplying mean damage ratio with the total cost of initial construction. The proposed loss model combines these input components within a conditional probability approach. The results are expressed in terms of expected loss and losses caused by events with different return periods.

Tender vessels in the United States will soon need to comply with new safety regulations as mandated by the Coast Guard Authorization Act of 2010. This thesis focuses specifically on assisting in the formation of an Alternative Safety Compliance Program (ASCP) for the unique tender vessel fleet and seeks to understand why tender vessels experience fatalities and vessel casualties. By analyzing data of tendermen fatalities and tender vessel casualties between 2000 and 2012, the report sheds light on the realities of these incidents. Among other findings, the data show that the most common cause of vessel casualty was striking rocks or the ocean floor, and the most common human error was falling asleep at the helm. This thesis then proposes potential regulations that would be economically feasible and realistic for tenders by comparing the casualty data to the reported financial realities of current tender vessels. Notably, the analysis indicates that applying the current Alternative Compliance and Safety Agreement (ACSA) to tenders would not be beneficial. Ultimately, the proposed regulations herein should act as a foundation for a discussion regarding an alternative compliance agreement, as the final agreement will be reached through a much greater dialogue between many involved parties, including tendermen, regulators, safety compliance experts, and others.

A qualitative description of the personal armour design system is elicited by comparing armour throughout the ages. Inputs that 'shape' designs are the materials technology, threat, wearer, task and environment. The emergent properties of protection, ergonomic effectiveness and financial cost form the basis of trade-offs to select final solutions. Work on the protection subsystem refines the key positive emergent property of personal armour. Existing quantifications of protection effectiveness are rejected in favour of a novel measure named the Usefulness Factor, UF. This is the first measure that accounts for the real benefit of armour. A five-stage model is proposed for the assessment of protection. Two feedback loops - due to making tasks as safe as possible and the ergonomic penalty of armour are evident. These must be considered in order to assess protection correctly. Casualty reduction analysis software (CASPER) is used to produce 'approach plots' and 'zones of usefulness' in order to make tasks safer and map the benefit of armour. This approach is demonstrated with the UK's Lightweight Combat EOD Suit against L2A2 and No. 36 Mills grenades, an HB876 area denial mine, a BL 755 sub-munition and a 105mm artillery shell. Assessment of secondary fragmentation from antipersonnel (AP) blast mines defines a threat input that is specific to Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD). Trials are carried out with explosive charges of 50g to 500g, buried under 5 or 10cm of stones and sand at a range of 1m. The threat is defined in terms of the probabilities of (a) being hit, (b) a hit perforating armour and (c) a hit incapacitating an unarmoured person. The chances of being hit close to the ground decrease to approximately 15% of the value when directly above the mine. Secondary fragmentation is not likely to perforate armour that protects against primary fragments. However, it is likely to incapacitate an unarmoured person. Protection is traded-off against proxies for ergonomic and financial cost effectiveness by using quantitative optimisation of personal armour. This introduces the concept of a 'protection optimisation envelope', which defines the bounds of possibility rather than a single solution. CASPER is adapted to produce weight and cost as well as incapacitation parameters. This provides a model that generates both benefits and constraints of armour. Hence, the foundations are laid for the world's first fully integrated personal armour design tools. The ergonomic effectiveness subsystem is the primary constraint of personal armour. Visor demisting for the UK's Mk 5 EOD Suit provides a simple example. Existing methods of assessment of the ergonomic penalty of armour are considered. A novel development of biomechanics computational models is proposed to predict both the mechanical and thermal burdens of armour.

A qualitative description of the personal armour design system is elicited by comparing armour throughout the ages. Inputs that 'shape' designs are the materials technology, threat, wearer, task and environment. The emergent properties of protection, ergonomic effectiveness and financial cost form the basis of trade-offs to select final solutions. Work on the protection subsystem refines the key positive emergent property of personal armour. Existing quantifications of protection effectiveness are rejected in favour of a novel measure named the Usefulness Factor, UF. This is the first measure that accounts for the real benefit of armour. A five-stage model is proposed for the assessment of protection. Two feedback loops - due to making tasks as safe as possible and the ergonomic penalty of armour are evident. These must be considered in order to assess protection correctly. Casualty reduction analysis software (CASPER) is used to produce 'approach plots' and 'zones of usefulness' in order to make tasks safer and map the benefit of armour. This approach is demonstrated with the UK's Lightweight Combat EOD Suit against L2A2 and No. 36 Mills grenades, an HB876 area denial mine, a BL 755 sub-munition and a 105mm artillery shell. Assessment of secondary fragmentation from antipersonnel (AP) blast mines defines a threat input that is specific to Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD). Trials are carried out with explosive charges of 50g to 500g, buried under 5 or 10cm of stones and sand at a range of 1m. The threat is defined in terms of the probabilities of (a) being hit, (b) a hit perforating armour and (c) a hit incapacitating an unarmoured person. The chances of being hit close to the ground decrease to approximately 15% of the value when directly above the mine. Secondary fragmentation is not likely to perforate armour that protects against primary fragments. However, it is likely to incapacitate an unarmoured person. Protection is traded-off against proxies for ergonomic and financial cost effectiveness by using quantitative optimisation of personal armour. This introduces the concept of a 'protection optimisation envelope', which defines the bounds of possibility rather than a single solution. CASPER is adapted to produce weight and cost as well as incapacitation parameters. This provides a model that generates both benefits and constraints of armour. Hence, the foundations are laid for the world's first fully integrated personal armour design tools. The ergonomic effectiveness subsystem is the primary constraint of personal armour. Visor demisting for the UK's Mk 5 EOD Suit provides a simple example. Existing methods of assessment of the ergonomic penalty of armour are considered. A novel development of biomechanics computational models is proposed to predict both the mechanical and thermal burdens of armour.

The aim of my thesis is to review current and approchable types of insurance in Czech republic with an emphasis on the health insurance. The thesis should result in a summary of possible reform or stabilization arrangements that are solving unfavourable prognosis in Czech republic in the long term.

Since the early 1980's there has been a heightened academic interest in the field of commitment, particularly as it relates to business relationships. Knowledge of commitment continues to advance and has begun splintering and applied into specific and narrow fields. The particular field of interest in this study surrounds commitment levels in business relationships within property and casualty insurance distribution networks. The intent of understanding and enhancing commitment levels is to allow stakeholders to explore new ways to improve profitability. This can be achieved by deepening the level of understanding and knowledge of relationship partners with a view to anticipating and fulfilling their needs better than the competition. However, commitment is intangible and involves many factors including human emotion. This increases the difficulty in comprehending the whole phenomenon of commitment. To assist in furthering the knowledge in this area, transaction cost theory is examined and applied to insurance company and broker relationships. In seeking a greater understanding of the underlying drivers of commitment, this thesis investigates the theoretical contribution of transaction cost economics theory in assessing commitment levels. The purpose is to utilize the elements of transaction costs as a means to extend the awareness of how commitment is constructed, and to search for ways to improve and strengthen these relationships. The primary research method consists of three major case studies within the Canadian property and casualty insurance distribution sector. The first case study explores the perspectives of insurance brokers in Ontario. The second study reveals the perceptions of relationship managers employed with ING Canada, the country's largest property and casualty insurance company. Lastly, the research incorporates a series of interviews with ING Canada senior executives to capture their perspectives and validate the research findings from the first two case studies. These investigations into the Canadian insurance industry have provided several outputs, chief among them is the development of a conceptual model referred to as the 'Commitment Wheel'. This model has the advantages of seating affective and calculative commitment at the centre of a moving environment of commitment enablers.

<p dir="ltr">With increasing frequency, American schools have been plagued with mass casualty events perpetrated by offenders using various types of firearms. In recent years, several studies have used AnyLogic®, an agent-based computer modeling software, to model some of these mass shooting events. More specifically, researchers have modeled mass shooting events and how changes in police response and victim response affect casualty rates in these scenarios. Another model has used the same agent-based software to model mass-casualty events of various venues. The model goes further by integrating what will be known throughout this paper as “the bleed-out model”. The bleed-out model uses known data from these mass casualty events to model types of injuries and their related probability of resulting in a fatality. The model also uses known data about traumatic wound interventions from mass casualty scenarios, as well as law enforcement and military applications, to model life-saving measures to counteract traumatic injuries and decrease the probability of a victim becoming a fatality. This research used AnyLogic® software to integrate agent-based school shooting models with an agent-based bleed-out model. Once combined, individual first aid kits (IFAKs) geared toward traumatic wound/hemorrhaging care were introduced into the environment and their placement was arranged in several different ways. AnyLogic® software and quantitative analysis were used to make recommendations about best practices for implementing IFAKS in schools. This research specifically examines whether the placement distance for IFAKS in schools during an active shooter incident could have a statistically significant impact on the survivability of active shooter victims. Different scenarios are assessed in the AnyLogic® model varying the placement of a fixed number of IFAKS throughout the school during an incident.</p>

Contemporary conflicts are marked by support relationships between partners for the purpose of achieving common goals, namely partnered military operations. These have been seen to amplify positive or negative repercussions of conflict, like civilian harm and restraint from such. This study explores what influences restraint in partnered military operations by examining the effect of civilian casualty tracking, and asking how does the implementation of civilian casualty tracking mechanisms affect restraint in partnered military operations? This study builds on liberal internationalism, attributing restraint to external pressures. This thesis hypothesises that restraint in a partnered military operation will be higher, the more comprehensive the civilian casualty tracking. Using the method of within-case comparative analysis, resembling a structured focused comparison, the hypothesis is tested on the case of Afghanistan. Results indicate support for the theorized relationship, as low comprehensiveness of civilian casualty tracking is correlated with low restraint, while comprehensive civilian casualty tracking is correlated with higher restraint. The correlation is in line with the expected direction, yet not perfect, indicating that other variables may influence restraint in interaction effects. Further research is needed to determine causal factors and trace underlying mechanisms.

In this thesis, we explore three critical emergency logistics problems faced by healthcare and humanitarian relief service providers for short-term post-disaster management. In the first manuscript, we investigate various integration mechanisms (fully integrated horizontal-vertical, horizontal, and vertical resource sharing mechanisms) following a natural disaster for a multi-type whole blood-derived platelets, multi-patient logistics network. The goal is to reduce the amount of shortage and wastage of multi-blood-group of platelets in the response phase of relief logistics operations. To solve the logistics model for a large scale problem, we develop a hybrid exact solution approach involving an augmented epsilon-constraint and Lagrangian relaxation algorithms and demonstrate the model's applicability for a case study of an earthquake. Due to uncertainty in the number of injuries needing multi-type blood-derived platelets, we apply a robust optimization version of the proposed model which captures the expected performance of the system. The results show that the performance of the platelets logistics network under coordinated and integrated mechanisms better control the level of shortage and wastage compared with that of a non-integrated network. In the second manuscript, we propose a two-stage casualty evacuation model that involves routing of patients with different injury levels during wildfires. The first stage deals with field hospital selection and the second stage determines the number of patients that can be transferred to the selected hospitals or shelters via different routes of the evacuation network. The goal of this model is to reduce the evacuation response time, which ultimately increase the number of evacuated people from evacuation assembly points under limited time windows. To solve the model for large-scale problems, we develop a two-step meta-heuristic algorithm. To consider multiple sources of uncertainty, a flexible robust approach considering the worst-case and expected performance of the system simultaneously is applied to handle any realization of the uncertain parameters. The results show that the fully coordinated evacuation model in which the vehicles can freely pick up and off-board the patients at different locations and are allowed to start their next operations without being forced to return to the departure point (evacuation assembly points) outperforms the non-coordinated and non-integrated evacuation models in terms of number of evacuated patients. In the third manuscript, we propose an integrated transportation and hospital capacity model to optimize the assignment of relevant medical resources to multi-level-injury patients in the time of a MCI. We develop a finite-horizon MDP to efficiently allocate resources and hospital capacities to injured people in a dynamic fashion under limited time horizon. We solve this model using the linear programming approach to ADP, and by developing a two-phase heuristics based on column generation algorithm. The results show better policies can be derived for allocating limited resources (i.e., vehicles) and hospital capacities to the injured people compared with the benchmark. Each paper makes a worthwhile contribution to the humanitarian relief operations literature and can help relief and healthcare providers optimize resource and service logistics by applying the proposed integration and coordination mechanisms.