Most non-life insurers and many creditors use regressions, more specifically Generalized Linear Models (GLM), to price their liabilities. One limitation with GLMs is that interactions between predictors are handled manually, which makes finding interactions a tedious and time-consuming task. This increases the cost of rate making and, more importantly, actuaries can miss important interactions resulting in sub-optimal customer prices. Several papers have shown that Gradient Tree Boosting can outperform GLMs in insurance pricing since it handles interactions automatically. Insurers and creditors are however reluctant to use so-called ”Black-Box” solutions for both regulatory and technical reasons. Tree-based methods have been used to identify pricing errors in regressions, albeit only as ad-hoc solutions. The authors instead propose a systematic approach to automatically identify and evaluate interactions between predictors before adding them to a traditional GLM. The model can be used in three different ways: Firstly, it can create a table of statistically significant candidate interactions to add to a GLM. Secondly, it can automatically and iteratively add new interactions to an old GLM until no more statistically significant interactions can be found. Lastly, it can automatically create a new GLM without an existing pricing model. All approaches are tested on two motor insurance data sets from a Nordic P&C insurer and the results show that all methods outperform the original GLMs. Although the two iterative modes perform better than the first, insurers are recommended to mainly use the first mode since this results in a reasonable trade-off between automating processes and leveraging actuaries’ professional judgment. / De flesta skadeförsäkringsbolag och många långivare använder regressioner, mer specifikt generaliserade linjära modeller (GLM), för att prissätta sina skulder. En begräsning med GLM:er är att interaktioner mellan exogena variabler hanteras manuellt, vilket innebär att hanteringen av dessa är tidskrävande. Detta påverkar försäkringsbolags lönsamhet på flera sätt. För det första ökar kostnaderna för att skapa tariffer och för det andra kan aktuarier missa viktiga interaktioner, vilket resulterar i suboptimala kundpriser. Tidigare forskning visar att Gradient Boosting kan överträffa GLM:er inom försäkringsprissättning eftersom denna metod hanterar interaktioner automatiskt. Försäkringsbolag och kreditgivare är dock motvilliga till att använda så kallade ”Black-box-lösningar” på grund av både regulatoriska och tekniska skäl. Trädbaserade metoder har tidigare använts för att hitta felprissättningar i regressioner, dock endast genom situationsanpassade lösningar. Författarna föreslår i stället en systematisk metod för att automatiskt identifiera och evaluera interaktioner innan de inkluderas i en traditionell GLM. Modellen kan användas på tre olika sätt: Först och främst kan den användas för att skapa en tabell med statistiskt signifikanta interaktioner att addera till en existerande GLM. Utöver detta kan den iterativt och automatiskt lägga till sådana interaktioner tills inga fler återstår. Slutligen kan modellen också användas för att skapa en helt ny GLM från grunden, utan en existerande prissättningsmodell. Metoderna testas på två motorförsäkringsdataset från ett nordiskt skadeförsäkringsbolag och resultaten visar att alla överträffar originalregressionen. Även om de två iterativa metoderna överträffar den första metoden rekommenderas försäkringsbolag att använda den första metoden. Detta eftersom den resulterar i en rimlig avvägning mellan att automatisera processer och att nyttja aktuariers omdömesförmåga.

<p>This dissertation examines the impact of active shooters upon patrons attending large outdoor events. There has been a spike in shooters targeting densely populated spaces in recent years, to include open-air venues. The 2019 Gilroy Garlic Festival was selected for modeling replication using AnyLogic software to test various experiments designed to reduce casualties in the event of an active shooter situation. Through achievement of validation to produce identical outcomes of the real-world Gilroy Garlic Festival shooting, the researcher established a reliable foundational model for experimental purposes. This active shooter research project identifies the need for rapid response efforts to neutralize the shooter(s) as quickly as possible to minimize casualties. Key findings include the importance of armed officers patrolling event grounds to reduce response time, the need for adequate exits during emergency evacuations, incorporation of modern technology to identify the shooter’s location, and applicability of a 1:548 police to patron ratio.</p>

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / Commander, Logistics Group, Western Pacific (COMLOGWESTPAC) is concerned with the delivery of high priority material, ordnance, and passengers to U.S. Navy ships due to a very large operations area and limited Combat Logistics Force (CLF) assets. High-speed vessels (HSVs) may have the potential to improve the delivery of these materials when used to complement existing logistics shuttle ships. This thesis quantifies current levels of traditional naval logistics support and provides comparison to HSV-based alternatives in various scenarios. The CLF Scenario Analysis Tool (CLFSAT), a newly developed discrete event simulation model of naval logistics support, performs the analysis. Given a scenario depicting combatant movements and operations, CLFSAT provides insight into the comparative performance of different supporting naval logistics force structures. This analysis determines that HSVs can be effective logistics platforms in specific scenarios when distributing high priority material, ordnance, and stores. HSVs are very effective in small theaters with short transit distances, but for larger theaters, their effectiveness is inversely proportional to distance from the Forward Logistics Site. Regardless of theater size, HSVs show significant improvements in theater distribution of "low density, high priority" cargo, such as precision guided munitions (PGMs) or critical repair parts when customers are outside COD range. / Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy

The study aimed to investigate the implementation of customer care at the Casualty Department of Edenvale Regional Hospital in Gauteng Province. The research was conducted using a qualitative case study approach, which sought to gain deeper understanding of the impact of customer care in the hospital’s Casualty Department from the employees’ point of view. Data was collected from 16 purposively selected respondents using semi-structured interviews and document analyses were interpreted by the researcher to give voice and meaning to the assessment topic. Data was analysed using the Content Analysis framework and six themes emerged from the data analysis: (1) High expectation levels from the community; (2) Quality of patient care; (3) Lack of resources; (4) Malfunctioning equipment; (5) Compromised safety and security; (5) Strategies to improve customer care; and (6) The effect of policies and guidelines on the quality of services rendered. The study revealed that the surrounding community that is served by the Edenvale Hospital’s Casualty Department had high expectations which the hospital was unable to meet because of the many limitations, especially resource constraints. The issues and difficulties associated with overcrowding in the emergency section were raised by respondents, who reported several challenges experienced in the hospital. These included patients sleeping on floor mattresses and even on stretchers, inadequate beds, shortage of staff, malfunctioning equipment and lack of sufficient infrastructure. These challenges resulted in long waiting periods for patients to be given open beds in the wards, bad attitudes from both patients and employees alike, poor communication among staff and patients and their families, and an unsafe environment for the staff and customers (patients). There is hence a need for the Gauteng Health Department together with the hospital management to review resources allocated to the Edenvale Regional Hospital and to increase awareness among the community about the operations of the level 2 hospitals such as this. / Public Administration / M. P. A.