Orientador: Paulo Sérgio Franco Barbosa / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Civil, Arquitetura e Urbanismo / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-26T09:44:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tiezzi_RafaeldeOliveira_D.pdf: 10672810 bytes, checksum: 5a4742f1807a1976eee5fd029668e096 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 / Resumo: A variabilidade hidroclimatológica seja na forma de secas ou na forma de anomalias temporais e/ou volumétricas nas precipitações é um problema enfrentado por muitos países e regiões do mundo. Estes fenômenos afetam de forma severa todos os usos da água sejam eles para consumo, geração de energia, abastecimento público, industrial, irrigação, dentre outros. O Brasil em particular possui seu sistema elétrico altamente dependente dos recursos hídricos, ou seja, altamente vulnerável a problemas hidroclimatológicos, como bem evidenciado na crise hídrica do ano de 2014 que impactou o sistema hidroenergético e sistemas de suprimento hídrico de muitos municípios na região Sudeste. O presente trabalho objetivou investigar os impactos desses períodos críticos, por meio de simulações de anomalias futuras nas precipitações e, consequentemente, os impactos nas vazões e nas séries históricas de ENA (Energia Natural Afluente), analisando, assim, os riscos aos quais o SIN (Sistema Interligado Nacional de Energia Elétrica) está exposto. Os resultados mostram que para questão energética estes impactos são importantes e consideráveis, porém para outros usos de água, sejam estes conflitantes com a geração de energia ou não, os efeitos podem ser ainda mais severos, principalmente nas porções Norte e Nordeste do país / Abstract: The hydroclimatological variability in the form of drought or temporal anomalies in volumetric rainfall is a problem faced by many countries and regions in the world. These phenomenon affect all the water's uses, these are: for consumption, power generation, drinking, industry, irrigation, and others. In the Brazil particular case this electrical system is highly dependent on water, and this is highly vulnerable to hydroclimatologicals problems, as well evidenced in the water crisis of 2014 which affected the hydroelectric system and water supply systems in many municipalities in the Southeast. This study aimed to investigate the impact of these critical periods, through simulations of future anomalies in rainfall and hence the impact on flows and the historical series of ENA (Natural Affluente Energy), analyzing the risks with the SIN (National Interconnected Electric Power System) are exposed. The results show that for energy issue these impacts are important and significant, but for other water uses, whether conflicting with the generation of energy or not, the effects can be even more severe, especially in the North and Northeast parts of the country / Doutorado / Recursos Hidricos, Energeticos e Ambientais / Doutor em Engenharia Civil

Orientador: Susana Oliveira Dias / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Estudos da Linguagem / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-22T16:34:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Luccas_TainaMascarenhasde_M.pdf: 5791821 bytes, checksum: 64067b10269fd69d22dee0b501d4f3c6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: Nuvens de pensamento que se encontram e dispersam... Será que vai chover? Potência que se faz em água. Pesquisa-inundada que deseja pensar a imagem fotográfica enquanto potência de vida - uma imagem-viva que prolifera intensidades distintas que movimentam nossos pensamentos e sensações em fluxos imprevisíveis, devires. Ventos que me levaram ao encontro de fotografias que querem representar o clima - as mudanças climáticas, desejo de aproximação com esses materiais para pensar as potências de vida nas/pelas/com/por essas imagens. Intensidades que se propagam desde dentro desses corpos-imagéticos cada vez mais presentes em nossas vidas e que criam formas de habitar o mundo. Imagens estas que aparecem na mídia e na divulgação científica - fotografias que, com frequência, dizem de um tempo que passou (o vivido) e também desejam afirmar um tempo futuro (querem fixar as nuvens?); discursos que investem na previsibilidade do tempo, no controle das forças da natureza, na conservação da vida. Imagens que carregam muitos clichês e tentativas de fixação de sentidos em torno das mudanças do clima. E como, então, procurar potências de vida, outras temporalidades nessas imagens cada vez mais encharcadas de clichês? Questão que movimentou o pensamento-escrita-pesquisa a se aventurar por entre fotografias clichês, mudanças e climas; estudos que passaram a integrar as atividades do projeto de extensão "Vida e tempo em proliferação: experimentações com as imagens das mudanças climáticas" (Faepex/Unicamp) - que trafegou pelas interfaces entre ciência, arte, filosofia, comunicação; com a criação de artefatos e contato com o público. Que vida e tempo pulsam dessas imagens? Pergunta que movimentava nossas pesquisas/experimentações a procurar possibilidades distintas de aproximação com as imagens do clima, intensidades que pudessem emergir desde dentro dos clichês, das tensões entre retenção e fluxo de significados; controle e descontrole; previsibilidade e imprevisibilidade, forças marcantes nas imagens e dizeres climáticos. Buscamos experimentar outros caminhos e possibilidades de encontro com o tema climático, outras políticas e poéticas imagéticas que pudessem proliferar fluxos imprevisíveis de pensamentos em devir / Abstract: Clouds of mind which meet and scatter... Is it going to rain? Floated research desires thinking about a photographic image while the power of life - alive image makes different intensities which move our thoughts and sensations of flows becoming unpredictably. Winds enlace me until photographs, wanting to present the atmosphere - climate changings, approach desire with these materials, thinking about the life power within through these images. Intensities scatter since the beginning of these image-bodies even more inside our lives, creating slims which inhabit the world. These images arise on the media screens and scientific communication - photographs that, frequently, tell about an old time which passed by (lived) besides they desire the destiny (do they want to be clouds?). Speeches increase time predictably, manage the strengths of the nature, controlling life. Images which carry a lot of clichés and sense fix temptation of signs according to climate changings. So how looking for life power, other time changings to these images each time more floated by clichés? It is a question of movement that turns on the writing thoughts research to adventure among photos clichés, changings and climate; studies that take part in the extension project activities "Life and time proliferating: experiences with climate image changings" (Faepex/Unicamp) -walking on the surfaces among science, art, philosophy, communication; with the creation of manufacture in touch with public. Which life and time pull these images? Question that moves our researches/experiences looking for different possibilities of approaching to the climate images, intensities which could emerge from inside the clichés, tensions between holding back and meaning flows; controlling and loosing control; predictable and unpredictable, remarkable strengths inside images and climate speeches. We are looking for experiencing other ways and possibilities of enlacement with the climate subject, other politics and poetic images that could proliferate flows and unpredictable becoming thoughts / Mestrado / Divulgação Científica e Cultural / Mestra em Divulgação Científica e Cultural

Please read the abstract in the 00front part of this document / Dissertation (MSc (Agricultural Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2007. / Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development / unrestricted

Les dérèglements climatiques engendrés par l’activité anthropique vont fortement perturber les écosystèmes naturels dans un futur proche. Les écosystèmes marins, déjà soumis à la forte variabilité de leur environnement, sont donc fortement menacés. Au sein de ces communautés, le phytoplancton a un rôle primordial dans les réseaux trophiques, ainsi que pour les processus régulant le climat. Comprendre l’évolution de ces communautés dans un monde en perpétuel changement est l’un des enjeux de l’océanographie. Parmi les facteurs influençant le phytoplancton, les virus jouent un rôle primordial de par leur capacité à induire une lyse cellulaire. Ils contrôlent ainsi la dynamique phytoplanctonique. Il est donc indispensable de comprendre comment l’impact des virus sur ces communautés va évoluer dans le contexte de changement climatique. Cette thèse explore ainsi le rôle de la température dans les interactions entre le phytoplancton et les virus grâce à une approche intégrée reliant expériences en laboratoire et modélisation mathématique. Dans notre travail, nous nous sommes intéressé plus particulièrement aux pico-eucaryotes du genre Micromonas. Dans une première étude, nous avons caractérisé la réponse à la température du genre Micromonas en étudiant 11 souches différentes. Nous avons montré le rôle primordial de la température sur l’écologie du phytoplancton. En particulier, nous avons démontré que la température océanique avait joué un rôle décisif dans l’évolution. Ainsi, nous avons pu prédire l’évolution de la biodiversité dans un océan en voie de réchauffement. Dans une deuxième étude nous avons montré que la température est un facteur clef dans le contrôle de la dynamique phytoplancton – virus. La température affecte notamment les taux de perte d'infectiosité et de dégradation des virus, ainsi que le taux de production de virus. En particulier, nous avons observé un changement de stratégie d’infection. Au-delà d’une température proche de la température optimale de croissance, les dynamiques deviennent plus complexes suggérant un changement de stratégie d'infection, qui passerait de lytique à chronique. Dans une troisième étude, nous avons modélisé ces interactions et avons pu reproduire les changements observés en fonction de la température. Nous avons discuté du rôle de la température sur les processus d’infection mis en jeux. / Climate changes induced by human activities will deeply impact natural ecosystems. Marine ecosystems, leaving in a highly variable environment, are therefore threatened. Within these communities, phytoplankton have a primordial role in the trophic web and in the regulation of climate processes. Understanding the evolution of these communities in a warming world is an issue of oceanography. Among factor affecting phytoplankton dynamics, viruses play a key role through their capacity to lyse their hosts. They are therefore controlling the phytoplankton population dynamics. It is then crucial to understand how the viruses impact will evolve in a warming ocean. In this thesis we explore the impact of temperature on these interactions with an integrative method combining laboratory experiments and mathematical modelling. We focus on the pico-eukaryote genus Micromonas. In a first study, we have characterized the temperature response of the Micromonas genus by studying 11 different strains. We have shown the primordial role of temperature on the ecology of phytoplankton. In particular, we have demonstrated that ocean temperature has played a decisive role in evolution. Thus, we have been able to predict the evolution of biodiversity in a warming ocean. In a second study we showed that temperature is a key factor in controlling the phytoplankton - virus dynamics. The temperature affects in particular the rates of infectivity loss and of virus degradation, as well as the rate of virus production. In particular, we observed a change in infection strategy. Beyond a temperature close to the optimal growth temperature, the dynamics become more complex suggesting a change in infection strategy from lytic to chronic. In a third study, we have developed a mathematical model representing these interactions. The model efficiently reproduced the observed changes as a function of temperature. Finally, we discuss the role of temperature on the involved infection processes.

The thesis deals with coverage of natural disaster damages by commercial insurance. A description of natural disasters and their possible occurrence mainly in our territory in association with climate changes as the factor causing increase in their number serve as an introduction. Starting from the impact on the world and the Czech insurance sector, where the thesis deals especially with floods in 1997 and 2002, it is getting on to the analysis of the offers presented by three largest Czech insurance companies. The analysis studies the floods in 1997 and 2002 in perspective with different high-risk flood areas specified in our country. The conclusion of the thesis proposes the ways describing how to deal with risks differently, without using the insurance. The proposal advises an insurer to use such methods as reinsurance or alternative risk transfer instruments.

Orientadores: Mateus Batistella, Lúcia da Costa Ferreira / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-26T13:01:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Iwama_AllanYu_D.pdf: 19435233 bytes, checksum: 3bf2de5c4f689d0e7ed9b543b12b84e1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: As zonas costeiras são áreas potencialmente sujeitas a riscos ambientais, sobretudo no contexto de eventos climáticos extremos. Há uma considerável parcela da população vivendo em zonas costeiras, o que reforça a importância de apontar as situações de risco e vulnerabilidade que as mudanças climáticas trazem para essas regiões. Esta pesquisa tem como principais objetivos: (1) identificar e caracterizar as áreas em situação de vulnerabilidade no litoral do estado de São Paulo, com ênfase no litoral norte, compreendido pelos municípios de Caraguatatuba, Ilhabela, São Sebastião e Ubatuba; (2) avaliar a percepção das pessoas em situação de risco e analisar suas estratégias de adaptação ou enfrentamento [aos riscos a que estão expostas]. A abordagem metodológica foi baseada considerando duas principais escalas, a regional e a local, embasadas por um misto de métodos que envolveu a análise espacial de dados sociodemográficos e do meio físico e a aplicação de questionários estruturados para analisar a percepção da população em situações de risco e o contexto das mudanças climáticas. Os resultados apontam para uma distribuição das áreas de riscos geotécnicos no litoral paulista, com ênfase analítica para a UGRHi-3 (litoral norte de São Paulo), classificada como Muito Alta ou Alta suscetibilidade a escorregamentos ou inundação, sobretudo em áreas de acesso restrito da população aos serviços públicos básicos ou em condições precárias de moradia. Os resultados chamam atenção para situações de vulnerabilidade social, que têm se mantido `contínuas¿ ao longo de dez anos, associadas a um retrato de contraste social e segregação socioespacial, sem uma efetiva intervenção ou ação para reduzir os impactos ante a um perigo iminente de desastre. O que se tem observado são ações remediadoras de pós-evento aos `desastres¿ e suas razões vão desde um quadro insuficiente de equipes de defesa civil para atender toda a extensão dos municípios até uma política institucional voltada mais para ações de reconstrução do que de prevenção. Essa realidade vem sendo modificada com a implementação de políticas públicas orientadas para uma integração de instrumentos de gestão (tais como regras para parcelamento de uso do solo, planos diretores, zoneamento e mapeamento de riscos) que considerem também aspectos das mudanças climáticas. No entanto, essas ações ainda são incipientes. Os resultados desta pesquisa permitem possíveis avanços nas abordagens teóricas e metodológicas ligadas ao tema de vulnerabilidade e adaptação da sociedade diante dos riscos a que está exposta, buscando também contribuir para uma interface com as políticas públicas. Os resultados, em seu conjunto, trazem contribuições como parte integrante do projeto temático "Clima" ¿ Crescimento populacional, vulnerabilidade e adaptação: dimensões sociais e ecológicas das mudanças climáticas no litoral de São Paulo (n.o 2008/58159-7), no escopo do Programa Fapesp de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais (PFPMCG) / Abstract: The coastal zones are areas of potential environmental risks, particularly in the context of climatic extreme events. A significant portion of the population living in coastal areas, emphasizing the importance of characterizing situations of risk and vulnerability in the context of climate change in these regions. This research project had two main objectives: (1) identify and characterize vulnerable areas on the coast of São Paulo, with focus on the Northern coast (UGRHi-3), by municipalities Caraguatatuba, Ilhabela, São Sebastião and Ubatuba; (2) assess the risk perception of people at risk and to analyze their strategies of adaptation or coping [the hazards/risks they are exposed]. The methodological approach was based on considering two main scales: regional and local levels, based on a combination of methods involving spatial data analysis of the physical and demographic variables and the application of structured questionnaires to analyze the risk perception of the population at risk and context of climate change. The results point out to a distribution of areas of geotechnical risks on the coast of São Paulo, ranked as Very High or High susceptibility to landslides or flooding, especially in areas of restricted access of the population to basic public services or in slums housing conditions. The results called attention to situations of social vulnerability that has remained 'continuous' over ten years, together with a scenario of social contrasts and socio-spatial segregation without an effective intervention or action to reduce the impacts faced with the risk impending disaster. What has been observed is actions post-event to 'disasters' and his reasons ranging from insufficient framework of civil defense teams to meet the full extent of these municipalities by an institutional policy focused on actions for reconstruction than prevention. This situation has been changing with the implementation of public policies for the integration of management tools (such as guidelines for land use, master plans, zoning and risk mapping) and also consider aspects of climate change, however is still incipient. The results of this research supported the research components within the thematic `Clima¿ project - "Population growth, vulnerability and adaptation: social and ecological dimensions of climate change on the coast of São Paulo" (Fapesp 2008/58159-7), in the scope the FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change (PFPMCG), allowing possible advances in methods approaches linked to the theme [risks and vulnerabilities] and adaptation of society against the hazards/risks they are exposed. This approach, also sought to contribute to the broader issues of the thematic project from FAPESP, seeking interfaces with public policy / Doutorado / Aspectos Sociais de Sustentabilidade e Conservação / Doutor em Ambiente e Sociedade

The tourism sector in Stockholms city, Sweden, is a dynamic industry that through the years has generated large revenues and job openings. Unpredictable events such as terrorism, pandemics, natural disasters and climate changes, may have great imapct on the tourism sector. This may be true to most cities in the world including Stockholm. in this thesis, the effect of various unpredictable events has been investigated through interviews with city of Stockholm and the authority for community protection and preparedness. In use of strenghts, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT-analys). The main conclusion of this thesis is that the Covid-19 pandemic (year 2020) has shown that the emergency preparations for unpredictable events are incorrectly dimensiond. This means that the city of Stockholm needs to work more proactively in the future to ensure that the tourism sector is not jeopardized during upcoming unpredictable events.

The influence of volcanoes on climate is very often debated, not only in the scientific community. However, the question remains, how much may the volcanic activity contribute to the significant ganges, that could cause a response of environment, which lies in the immediate vicinity. These changes could arise as a response on prolonged exposure of the negative influence, which would last much longer than decades, like it is at present. From this reason the situation in the České středohoří Mountains, where the volcanic activity lasted for several million years during the Paleogene period, is studied. This area is extraordinally rich in deposits of so-called volcanic floras, which accompany the neovolcanic activity. The age of the localities are between late Eocene to late Oligocene and it is a long time enough for recognizing some changes in the floristic composition to help elucidate the given problem.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(農学) / 甲第23523号 / 農博第2470号 / 新制||農||1087(附属図書館) / 学位論文||R3||N5354(農学部図書室) / 京都大学大学院農学研究科森林科学専攻 / (主査)准教授 岡田 直紀, 教授 神﨑 護, 教授 北島 薫 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Agricultural Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

For marine fishes, the early larval phase is considered a critical stage for survivorship and recruitment. The spatial and temporal dynamics of larval fish assemblages can influence their success and trophic structure of marine communities and entire ecosystems. This thesis will provide the first characterization of larval fish assemblage in the Strait of Georgia (SoG) in terms of diversity, abundance and composition, and their variability over multiple temporal scales, as well as the first quantification of variability in larval fish distribution in the SoG across multiple spatial scales. On the interdecadal scale, a significant decrease in larval abundance of several dominant fish taxa (Pacific hake, walleye Pollock, northern smoothtongue and rockfishes) contributed to a decline in total larval abundance and turnover in the composition structure between the early 1980s and the late 2000s. In contrast, both abundance and the relative composition of flatfishes and several demersal forage fish taxa increased during the same period. On interannual scales, abundance, diversity and community structure of the spring larval assemblages varied dramatically through 2007-2010, a period which alternated between strong La Niña and El Niño events. Higher overall larval concentrations were associated with warm conditions in the SoG in 2007 and 2010, while the lowest larval concentration was associated with cooler condition in 2009. Examination of associations between larval fish assemblages and environmental fluctuations suggests a potential influence of large-scale climate processes between the early 1980s and the late 2000s, but a primary association with local environmental factors on interannual scales. Spatial patterns in larval density of three dominant fish taxa (Pacific herring, Pacific hake and northern smoothtongue) were mostly structured on predefined broad (> 40km) and medium (20~40km) scales. Although their scale-dependent associations with environmental factors varied interannually, larval distributions in the central-southern SoG were generally associated with salinity, temperature and vertical stability of water column in the upper layer (0-50m). Our results emphasize the role of local estuarine circulation in structuring hierarchical spatial distributions of planktonic fish larvae in the SoG. These findings will provide considerable implications in fisheries resource management and conservation strategies. / Graduate / 0416 / 0329 / guanlu129@gmail.com