This research examines the legal issues arising in the inter-relationship between climate change law and policy on the one hand, and international trade regulation on the other. The focus is government procurement. It looks at “green” government procurement (GPP) policies and practices used by the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol as a tool for climate change mitigation, and as it relates to these countries’ obligations under the WTO Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA). GPP is government purchase practice that favours goods, services and service suppliers that are more climate-friendly and energy efficient over similar others that are less so. For example, under the EU GPP policy, for climate reasons, procurement authorities have a preference for green electricity (generated from renewable sources) as against the conventional fossil-based electricity. The two types of “electricities” are ordinarily same products as far as their performance is concerned, that is, at the consumption level. Discriminating between the two has the potential to raise serious issues of law at WTO level.Under the WTO non-discrimination disciplines (GATT Arts. I and III, and GPA Art.III) product or service standards based on non-product related processes and production methods (PPMs) such as climate friendliness should not serve to permit differentiation in treatment between “like” products. The general exceptions provisions (GATT Art. XX(b) and (g) and GPA Art. XXIII) however, may permit such climate-related differential measures if they are: (1) necessary to achieve the legitimate policy objective intended, (2) not applied in a discriminatory manner and (3) not a disguised restriction on international trade. There are two issues of major concern to this study: First, there are textual discrepancies as between the GATT and GPA provisions related both to the nondiscrimination norms and the exceptions, which may pose interpretation difficulties in the event of a dispute. Secondly, the provisions of GATT Art. XX (b) and (g) are interpreted to refer to environment in general terms. However, the current trend is to single out and address climate change separately from among other environmental problems of transboundary nature. This is in view of the urgency associated with the challenge it poses. Generally, also, in accordance with established WTO jurisprudence, the party who invokes the GATT Art. XX exceptions bears the burden to prove the measure in question as being covered under the exceptions. Some scholars suggest that this situation places at a disadvantage the subjects covered by the exception provisions (in this case climate-related procurement). Examined, therefore, is not only the extent to which GPP practices can be accommodated under these exceptions, which are also in line with the WTO’s recognition of the principles of sustainable development, but also whether climate-friendly procurement is best protected if expressly provided for as “positive norm” in the text of the GPA. The Revised GPA 2007 (not yet in force) contains a new paragraph (Art. X:6) which explicitly permits the Parties to include environmental considerations in their procurement policies. This study argues that the revision would not fundamentally address the issues observed earlier. In order to avoid the interpretation difficulties envisaged, and to promote mutual supportiveness and coherence between the climate and trade regimes further amendment would be necessary to the text of Art. XXIII of the GPA to the general exceptions, or in the alternative, to Art. X:6 of the Revised GPA. The amendment should, subject to appropriate conditions, explicitly permit discriminatory GP measures meant to address climate change subject. This amendment would effectively shift the burden of proof from the Party maintaining the measure to the one complaining against it. In the final analysis, this research will contribute to the current discourse on what role the WTO may play in the efforts to fashion out new international climate policy to succeed the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC by 2012.

Lyme disease is one of the most common vector-borne diseases around the world, and the numbers of reported cases are quickly rising. Ixodes ticks are the principal vectors, while Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato genospecies are the etiological agents of the disease. Climate change, namely global warming, and habitat modification, namely forest fragmentation, are hypothesized to play an active role in this rise in reported cases. An analysis of the primary literature, specifically of studies focused on North America and Europe, was conducted in order to investigate these hypotheses. These studies show that global warming has precipitated a growth in tick populations as well as a northward tick migration, thereby increasing the risk of Lyme disease in emergent and endemic areas alike, for Borrelia spirochetes quickly infect naïve tick populations. Furthermore, published studies support the idea that forest fragmentation near human population centers has also increased the risk of Lyme disease in North America, for edge habitats provide suitable conditions for ticks and provide edible vegetation for the animals on which ticks feed, animals which also serve as hosts for B. burgdorferi sensu lato. In contrast, a decrease in fragmentation was found to facilitate tick invasion and establishment in Europe. These studies demonstrate that anthropogenic habitat modifications of varying types can affect ticks and their host populations and increase the risk of Lyme disease near human population centers. However, more research needs to be done to truly understand the different factors that are precipitating the rising number of cases of Lyme disease since there are significant interactions between climate change, habitat modification, and other drivers not examined here. Furthermore, understanding how these drivers function in specific geographic locations can help scientists and public officials tailor local public health measures appropriately. Finally, researchers and pharmaceutical companies must develop a safe, long-lasting, and effective vaccine against the Lyme disease spirochete, for there is not one currently available. Although easily treatable if diagnosed early, Lyme disease can progress to debilitating disease. Unfortunately, the risk of contracting this illness is currently rising and will continue to rise unless effective preventative measures are employed.

Climate change presents a clear threat to the future of global food security. Changes in the patterns of temperature and precipitation have the potential to greatly decrease agri- cultural production. Developing successful adaptation strategies is dependent on under- standing both the potential changes in yield of a given crop, as well as the likelihood those changes occurring. This requires an understanding of the uncertainty in the geographic patterns of future climate change, as well as the response of a crop to those changes. In this dissertation I explore a framework for generating rapid estimates of the risk of climate change to agricultural yields. Using data from multiple climate models I use a regression based pattern scaling ap- proach in conjunction with a multi-resolution Gaussian spatial process model to emulate the output of a multi-model ensemble of global climate models. The approach is flexible across climate scenarios, allowing it to be easily used in conjunction with other impact models. Using this model I am able to rapidly emulate thousands of runs of a climate model on a laptop computer. The resulting synthetic distributions retain the spatial variability of the initial emulated models and provide a tool for generating probabilistic forecasts of regional climate change. Next I use a generalized additive model approach to estimate the stable manifold yield response surface of a set of irrigated and rained crops in China. This approach highlights the nonlinear relationship between changes in temperature and precipitation and yield. Results suggest that irrigation alone cannot prevent losses from climate change. Predictions of future temperature and precipitation show a trend towards temperatures above the critical threshold for many crops, indicating the potential for large losses. In the final chapter I combine the previously described methods to assess the impact of climate change on the spatial patterns of crop yield change in China. Result indicate overall losses to crop yield in the majority of cropped regions for both irrigated and non irrigated crops. These results represent a new methodology for rapidly assessing the risk of climate change to crop yield, and provide a new tool for prioritizing adaptation measures.

A expectativa de alterações climáticas é especialmente importante para o setor agropecuário, uma vez que se trata de atividade que possui dependência dos ciclos naturais. O objetivo desta tese é avaliar impactos econômicos de cenários de mudança climática para a agricultura brasileira. Efeitos sobre áreas aptas de oito culturas (feijão, milho, soja, algodão, arroz, cana de açúcar, mandioca e café) são avaliados através de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável, o The Enormous Regional Model for Brazil - TERM-BR, e cenários disponibilizados pela Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária - EMBRAPA, baseados no Painel Intergovernamental para a Mudança Climática - IPCC. Dois cenários são simulados com horizontes distintos, um para 2020 desconsiderando mudanças sociais e econômicas (2020/A2) e outro para 2070 com adaptações sociais e econômicas, nas projeções do IPCC (2070/B2). Para 2020/A2 os efeitos negativos concentram-se nas regiões Nordeste, conseqüência do clima semi-árido e perfil produtivo da região, além dos estados de Mato Grosso e Mato Grosso do Sul, resultado de impactos sobre a área apta para o produto soja. Em oposição, neste cenário, a região Sudeste beneficia-se, pois o produto cana de açúcar observa aumentos de rendimento sob aquecimento climático brando. O resultado líquido aponta para uma pequena redução da atividade econômica (PIB), elevação de preços de gêneros alimentícios e deslocamentos regionais da mão de obra, do Nordeste e Centro Oeste para as demais regiões. Para o segundo cenário, 2070/B2, novamente o Nordeste e o Centro Oeste são as regiões mais afetadas. Porém, os ganhos para a atividade econômica da região Sudeste são menores, uma vez que o efeito benéfico sobre a cana de açúcar desaparece em cenários mais severos de mudança climática. Como conseqüência, há um declínio nacional da atividade econômica superior ao cenário anterior. Naquilo que diz respeito ao mercado de trabalho permanecem as tendências de migração da mão de obra das regiões Nordeste e Centro Oeste para as demais regiões. Contudo, esta migração concentrase, proporcionalmente, nos estratos mais qualificados do mercado de trabalho. A mudança climática, na ausência de medidas de adaptação e mitigação mais intensas pode representar um risco para regiões historicamente subdesenvolvidas ou de desenvolvimento recente. Em especial, demonstra-se que os impactos econômicos no território brasileiro são heterogêneos entre as grandes regiões e os estados que o compõem. / The outlook of climate change is especially important for the farming sector, an economic activity where connection with natural cycles is strong. The objective of this thesis is to calculate economic impacts in scenarios of climatic change for Brazilian agriculture. Effect on appropriate areas of eight harvests (beans, maize, soy, cotton, rice, sugar cane, cassava and coffee) are evaluated through a model of computable general balance, the TERM-BR, and scenes available from EMBRAPA, based on the IPCC. Two scenarios are simulated with divergent perspectives, one for 2020 disrespecting social and economic changes (2020/A2) and another one for 2070 with social and economic adaptations, in the projections of the IPCC (2070/B2). For 2020/A2 the negative effect are concentrated in the regions Northeast, consequence of the several dry climate and production profile of the region, beyond the states of Mato Grosso and South´s Mato Grosso, outcome of impacts on the appropriate region for the soy. In antagonism, in this simulation, the Southeastern region is benefited; therefore the product sugar cane registers increases of income under soft climatic change scenario. The net result points with respect to a small reduction of the economic activity (GDP), rise of prices of foodstuffs and regional migration of the labor force, from Northeast and Center West for the other regions. For as the scenario, 2070/B2, the Northeast and the Center West are the affected regions also. However, the positive results for the economic activity in the Southeastern region are lesser, outcome of the smaller beneficial shock on the sugar cane in more severe scenarios of climate change. In this sense it has a national decline of the economic activity to the previous simulation. In labor market remain the trends of migration of the labor force from Northeast and Center West regions for the other regions. Nevertheless, this migration is intense, proportionally, in most qualified persons of the labor market. The climate change, in the lack of measures of intense adaptation and mitigation can represent a risk for historically underdeveloped regions or regions of recent development. In special, shows that the economic impacts in the Brazilian territory are heterogeneous between the great regions and the states that compose it.

No description available.

Since the Industrial Revolution at the end of the 18th century, anthropogenic changes in the environment have shifted from the local to the global scale. Even remote environments such as the high Arctic are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Similarly, anthropogenic mercury (Hg) has had a global reach because of atmospheric transport and deposition far from emission point sources. Whereas some effects of climate change are visible through melting permafrost, or toxic effects of Hg at higher trophic levels, the often-invisible changes in microbial community structures and functions have received much less attention. With recent and drastic warming-related changes in Arctic watersheds, previously uncharacterized phylogenetic and functional diversity in the sediment communities might be lost forever. The main objectives of my thesis were to uncover how microbial community structure, functional potential and the evolution of mercury specific functions in lake sediments in northern latitudes (>54ºN) are affected by increasing temperatures and Hg deposition. To address these questions, I examined environmental DNA from sediment core samples and high-throughput sequencing to reconstruct the community composition, functional potential, and evolutionary responses to historical Hg loading. In my thesis I show that the microbial community in Lake Hazen (NU, Canada) sediments is structured by redox gradients and pH. Furthermore, the microbes in this phylogenetically diverse community contain genomic features which might represent adaptations to the cold and oligotrophic conditions. Finally, historical Hg pollution from anthropogenic sources has likely affected the evolution of microbial Hg resistance and this deposition can be tracked using sediment DNA on the Northern Hemisphere. My thesis underscores the importance of using culture-independent methods to reconstruct the structure, functional potential and evolution of environmental microbial communities.

No description available.

The purpose of this thesis is to understand the reasons for the varying adaptation policies in place for coastal states that will experience flooding as result of climate change. Responses to excessive precipitation and worsened flooding differ widely between predominantly conservative and predominantly progressive states. The levels of flooding aren’t fully known, but they are predicted to be increasingly catastrophic as climate change worsens. Coastal populations will only grow more vulnerable to flooding without adaptive measures put in place. Increasing green infrastructure is one of the most effective methods. Adaptation measures vary widely by state and more progressive states have greater amounts of adaptive measures in place. Conservative states have a long history that results in their lack of climate policy and environmental governance.

Inuit constructions of gender in the pre-colonial period were centered around a gendered division of subsistence tasks. It is through this division of labor which gender roles, gendered socialization and spousal roles were formed. However, during the colonial period Inuit subsistence and the role it plays in Inuit society was rapidly and drastically changed. By analyzing the work of three different Arctic ethnographers documenting Inuit subsistence in different time periods and national contexts, this thesis will analyze how political, economic and environmental change in the Arctic has altered Inuit subsistence practices from European contact through the contemporary era. By analyzing how subsistence has changed overtime, this paper will assess the contemporary Inuit food system and the current crisis of food insecurity in Inuit communities. This analysis will be used to understand the social impacts of an evolving Inuit food system and how the emerging mixed wage and subsistence economy has constructed a new gendered division of labor in which Inuit women act as the primary providers of financial capital while men maintain access to natural resources through traditional subsistence pursuits.

Agricultural adaptation to climate change is notoriously context specific. Recently updated projections for the Northeastern US forecast increasingly severe and erratic precipitation events which pose significant risks to every sector of agricultural production in the region. Vegetable and berry farmers are among the most vulnerable to the risks of severe precipitation and drought due to the intensive soil and crop management strategies which characterize of this kind of production. To successfully adapt to a changing climate, these farmers need information which is tailored for the unique challenges of vegetable and berry production, framed at the level of climate impacts, and delivered through the familiar lexicon used by farmers in the region. My approach is grounded by partnerships with farmer networks to inform both the relevance of this information and my outreach strategy for sharing results. This research presents complimentary quantitative and qualitative data sets on adaptive management, and highlights the insight of farmers voices on innovative and promising solutions for managing climate related risks. The goal of the project was to create usable information for producers through a Farmer First approach which privileges the voices and experiences of farmers in determining the information and resources they need. As part of a broader project, this thesis analyzed the results of a regional survey of vegetable and berry growers conducted over the winter months of 2017-2018. The first chapter reviews theoretical foundations for academic study of agricultural management and climate change, with a focus on information usability. The second chapter applies theories of adaptation and resilience to identify agroecological principles for adapting farm management to water extremes and innovative practices emerging in the region. The third chapter uses a regression modelling approach to explore how adaptive management practices vary across site specific characteristics. Our analysis identifies trends and principles for adapting to water excess and water deficits on diversified vegetable and berry farms in the Northeast. The research findings highlight how site characteristics influence the selection of adaptive management practices on farms in the Northeast.