Global Climate Change has empirical evidence to support the idea that CO2 levels may be affecting weather and health, including rates of infectious diseases. The Midwest region of the United States of America has had the highest increase in giardiasis rates in recent years, and Missouri was chosen for this study as a representative state in the Midwest. There is no definitive answer as to why the rates of giardiasis have changed from 2003 - 2013. The Theory of Climate Change was used as the theoretical framework for this study. The purpose of this research was to determine whether temperature, precipitation and CO2 levels are associated with giardiasis. A cross-sectional design was used for this study with a non-probability sample of reported cases of giardiasis for 2003 - 2013, and data were analyzed using a bivariate analysis and multivariate analysis. There was a negative association between precipitation and number of cases of giardiasis in Missouri residents (p < .05), a positive association between temperature and number of cases of giardiasis in Missouri residents (p < .05), and a positive association between CO2 levels and number of cases of giardiasis in Missouri residents (p < .05). Levels of CO2 modified the association between precipitation and number of cases of giardiasis in Missouri residents (p < .05). Levels of CO2 modified the association between temperature and number of cases of giardiasis in Missouri residents (p < .05). These results demonstrate that climatic factors impact public health significantly. The implications for social change are to have the waterways, wells, and public water tested more often, to reinforce the waterway closures with increased measures to prevent morbidity and mortality with giardiasis when possible, and to raise awareness of the climatic impact on health.

Global mean surface temperatures (GMST) warmed in the early 20th century, experienced a mid-century lull, and warmed again steadily until 1997. Observations at the turn of the 21st century have revealed another period of quiescent warming of GMSTs from 1998 to 2012, thus prompting the notion of a global warming “hiatus”. The warming hiatus occurred concurrently with steadily increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, sea level rise, and retreating arctic sea ice. The occurrence of the warming hiatus suggests that natural variability continues to be a sizable contributor to modern climate change and implies that energy is rearranged or changed within the climate system. Much of the scientific research conducted over the last decade has attempted to identify which modes of natural variability may be contributing to the GMST signal in the presence of anthropogenic warming. Many of these studies concluded that natural variability, operating in the global oceans were the largest contributors to GMST. What remains unclear is how oceanic variability and its contribution to GMST may change on a warmer globe as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise. Our research includes diagnostic analyses of the available observational surface temperature estimates and novel state-of-the-art climate model experiments from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Our analyses seek to understand how the natural modes of variability within the ocean will change under different warming scenarios. Utilizing simulations forced with observed pre-industrial and historical greenhouse gas emissions in combination with several future warming simulations, we quantify the probability of similar “hiatus-like” periods occurring on a warmer globe. To that end employ various metrics and detrending techniques including EOF decomposition, running climatologies, along with linear and nonlinear trends to elucidate how natural variability changes over time. We also examine the changing influence of natural modes of variability with respect to the anthropogenic radiative forcing over different regions on the globe.Results suggest that natural variability for much of the global oceans decreases as the radiative forcing increases in the future warming scenarios.

Reef-building corals (Order: Scleractinia) are undergoing rapid taxonomic revision after molecular systematics disputed the relationships at all taxonomic levels within traditional classification. New morphological characters are being used to produce evolutionary relationships supported by molecular phylogenetics. While these characters are providing more congruent taxonomic relationships, their variation has not been fully explored. Additionally, phenotypic plasticity (changes in morphology resulting from environmental factors influencing the expressed phenotype despite a shared genotype) is prevalent amongst Scleractinia. In order to better understand the nature of these characters and explore their variation, I created a series of aquaria-based experiments designed to test the stability of these new morphological characters in response to differing environmental conditions. Light intensity and temperature were chosen as the environmental factors varied in these experiments on the basis of being a known trigger for environmentally-driven plasticity and their importance in calcification rate. In addition to aquaria-based phenotypic plasticity experiments I also examined a group (Family: Euphylliidae) within Scleractinia that had been divided by molecular phylogeny into two disparate groups. My research focused on morphological features viewed at magnifications observable by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) called micromorphology. Although variation in the skeletal micromorphology is observable, the new morphological characters that are used in taxonomy display only small amounts of variation caused by changing environmental conditions and were found to be stable for use in taxonomic studies. Additionally, I found a few micromorphological features distinguishing the two groups previously assigned to Euphylliidae including the shape of the septal margins and the fine-scale skeletal texture.

The alpine treeline ecotone is primarily caused by climate at continental and regional scales, but at finer scales exhibits increasing complexity and linkages with abiotic factors. In order to better understand the dynamics and geographic properties of treeline, a three-pronged study was conducted. The study's first objective investigated what factors account for local treeline variation by comparing a climate-based predictive surface with actual treeline elevation. After finding that a mean growing season temperature of 10.27°C was the strongest predictor of treeline at continental scales, statistical analyses attempted to model the differences between predicted and actual treeline elevation based on local climatic and geomorphological controls. Site elevation and latitude were found to correlate most strongly. Roughness also exerted positive influences, as well as precipitation when coupled with certain terrain factors. The second objective explored the distribution of treeline carbon at site scales by analyzing field data gathered in August 2009 in Glacier National Park, Montana. This confirmed the expected relationship of upright trees containing the highest biomass density, tundra the lowest, and krummholz in the middle. A high degree of dead organic matter was discovered, which may have important implications for treeline as a carbon source or sink when considering treeline's slow decomposition rates, and how these will change under climate warming. An additional analysis investigated the potential for relative biomass gain with future treeline advance, based on site and regional differences in slope and environmental lapse rates. The third objective asked what the potential for change in treeline biomass is across the western United States is by using freeze-thaw days as a proposed indicator. This potential importance is based on existing knowledge of the facilitating relationships between solifluction, surface geomorphology, and seedling establishment and survival. Freeze-thaw days were found to be highly variable, but correlated most strongly with elevation, suggesting increased temperature variability at higher elevations. The concluding chapter synthesizes the findings and maps potential biomass gain and freeze-thaw days together to highlight treeline sites and regions with the greatest potential for advance in a warming climate.

The salinization of groundwater resources is a widespread problem in arid agricultural environments. In Mewat, the amount of solutes dissolved in the water has become too high to use for drinking or agriculture. The only fresh water recharge to this bowl-shaped region is through precipitation, which is focused at the foothills of the mountain. The freshest water is found closest to the mountains and the salinity of the groundwater increases as the distance from the mountains increase. The pumps that supply the region with fresh water are located in the shrinking freshwater zone. Locally-monitored wells show the movement of salinity in the region, as the saline water encroaches upon the freshwater. This study aims to answer the following questions: How long until the region runs out of fresh water? What would it take to have sustainable fresh water supplies? Is it even possible to have sustainable fresh water supplies in this environment? In order to answer these questions, we will quantify potential futures for an arid, groundwater-dependent location in rural India, using numerical groundwater modeling to quantify interactions between human water use, infrastructure, and climate. Outcomes of this modeling study will inform sustainable management of groundwater resources

Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae, Hopkins) is a major disturbance agent in pine ecosystems of western North America. Adaptation to local climates has resulted in primarily univoltine (one generation per year) generation timing across a thermally diverse latitudinal gradient. We hypothesized that this pattern in total development time is shaped by selection for slower developmental rates, altered developmental thresholds, or oviposition rates in southern populations inhabiting warmer climates. To investigate traits responsible for latitudinal differences we measured lifestage-specific development of southern mountain pine beetle eggs, larvae and pupae across a range of temperatures. We also describe and model oviposition of southern US MPB. Using a novel technique that included frequent X-ray imaging, oviposition rate and fecundity were estimated separately and shown to both be significant and independent sources of variation. When compared with previously collected data for a northern MPB population, total oviposition time predicted for southern MPB at a constant 20°C was slightly longer than that of northern MPB, but the delay was too small to account for significant differences between the populations in total development time. Developmental rate curves for eggs, larvae, and pupae were fit using maximum posterior likelihood estimation with a Bayesian prior to improve fit stability. When compared to previously published data for a northern population (Régnière et al. 2012), observed developmental rates of the southern and northern populations were similar across all studied lifestages at 20 and 25°C, although southern individuals were generally faster at temperature extremes (10 and 27°C). These findings were inconsistent with our hypothesis that southern individuals would have consistently slower rates. Optimal development of southern individuals occurred at higher temperatures, with higher development thresholds, as compared with northern individuals. Our results suggest that evolved traits in the remaining unstudied lifestage, teneral (i.e., pre-emergent) adult, likely influence latitudinal differences in mountain pine beetle generation time.

The unique species, ecosystems and landscapes of the Western United States are experiencing unprecedented pressures from climate change, creating new challenges for conservation. As temperatures rise and patterns of precipitation shift, plant and wildlife species have been shifting their ranges to new areas in search of more suitable climates, building groupings of species that are historically unfamiliar. These climate -driven migrations place an additional burden on species that are already threatened from habitat loss and other human-related activities. The impacts of climate change are of particular concern in landscapes that have long been conserved and managed based on the ecological features that define them, including national parks, wildlife refuges, and wilderness areas. With many of these existing protected areas experiencing ecological shifts due to climate change, there is a growing need to identify the places within wider regions that will help species cope with impacts of changing climatic conditions. In some cases, those places are those where the pressures of climate change are least pronounced, what are referred to as “climate refugia.” At other times, helping plants and wildlife cope involves aiding their movement across the landscape in response to climate shifts, by preserving the connectivity between critical habitats and other highly important areas. While many efforts have been made to assess the potential of different areas as climate refugia and corridors, these practices have usually been carried out looking at individual species or ecosystems at a relatively local scale. Unfortunately, many of the decisions to conserve new parts of the landscape occur across much broader regions that span a multitude of species and ecosystems, ranging from individual states to entire continents. As a consequence, assessing climate refugia and corridors on a case-by-case basis for every ecological feature is neither feasible nor an efficient use of the limited resources available for conservation. Additionally, when deciding which areas are best suited for protecting native species and ecosystems from the impacts of climate change, one cannot ignore the existence of the other prevalent threats to conservation, such as habitat loss or invasive species. In this thesis, I have explored methods for widely incorporating climate change into the complex process of identifying high priority areas for conservation across broad regions. As a case study for this work, I chose the Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative, a collaborative public and private effort for conserving and managing the ecological characteristics of a distinct region spanning seven states in the US Intermountain West. After broadly measuring climate change impact and connectivity in a manner that was not tied to any particular species, I simulated climate refugia and corridors that simultaneously represented the ranges of 31 separate wildlife species. Though further research is needed to better understand the full suite of threats to species persistence, the means already exist for conservation decision makers to account for climate change in their actions. I believe that my work supports that decision making process, providing a framework for identifying areas that are most critical for aiding diverse species and ecosystems in their responses to the pressures of climate change.

The purpose of this thesis research was to examine the dynamic relationship between climate change and tourism, with a direct focus on Churchill, Manitoba’s polar bear viewing industry. This unique tourism industry and the polar bears it depends on, are experiencing the negative effects of climate change due to warmer temperatures and melting sea ice, which significantly impacts the health, appearance, and prevalence of polar bears on display for tourists. Not only is this tourism industry affected by climate change, it also contributes to the ongoing changes of climatic conditions. This is due to the dependence of fossil fuel energy used for transportation, accommodation, and activities which directly contributes to the release of greenhouse gas emissions and thus to global climate change. Emissions from tourism has increased by 3% over the last 10 years, largely as a result of the accessibility and affordability of air travel, the most energy intensive form of transportation (Lenzen et al., 2018; UNWTO-UNEP-WMO, 2008). It has been suggested that in response to the increase in the demand to travel, the tourism industry should take a leadership role to reduce their total greenhouse gas emissions in an effort to decrease the impact of climate change. In this study, a visitor survey was conducted during four weeks of Churchill’s 2018 polar bear viewing season (October 16 to November 16). The aim of the survey was to: 1) estimate greenhouse gas emissions from polar bear viewing tourists and the polar bear viewing industry; 2) identify tourists’ awareness of the impacts of climate change (to and from tourism activities); 3) understand tourist’s climate-related travel motivations, and 4) identify tourists’ opinions on climate change mitigation strategies. Visitor surveys were hand- distributed at the Churchill Northern Studies Centre and at the Churchill Airport to tourists who had participated on a polar bear viewing tour. Surveys were analyzed and compared with the results from similar studies (Dawson et al., 2010 and Groulx, 2015) to identify the changing trends in greenhouse gas emissions, travel motivations, tourists’ knowledge of climate change, and acceptance of climate change mitigation strategies. Similar to trends observed 10 years ago, emissions from polar bear viewing tourists are 3-34 times higher than the average global tourist experience. Tourists’ awareness about climate change has stayed relatively consistent, despite the topic of climate change having received increased attention globally. Tourists recognize that climate change is happening and that it is human induced however, there is still a lack of understanding of how air travel is a contributor to climatic change. Although briefly mentioned in some participant’s responses, the main motivation was not to see a polar bear before it disappeared from the wild. The majority of tourists identified they were traveling to Churchill simply for the opportunity to see a polar bear. Additional motivators were photography, the Northern Lights, and for the opportunity to see other Arctic animals. The climate change mitigation strategies that tourists believed to be the most effective to reduce emissions were educational programs and transportation alternatives (such as taking the train- which was not an option at the time of study due to a rail line shutdown). This research contributes to the existing knowledge about tourism and climate change and provides a current analysis of Churchill’s polar bear viewing industry, enabling a comparison between findings from another study conducted over ten years ago. This research also makes conclusions about climate change mitigation strategies that might be effective for Churchill’s tourism industry to reduce their impact on the environment.

Climate change is the first anthropogenic alteration of a global Earth system. It is globally catastrophic in terms of food production, sea level rise, fresh water availability, temperature elevation, ocean acidification, species disturbance and destruction to name just a few crisis concerns. In addition, while those changes are occurring now, they are amplifying over decadal periods and will last for centuries and possibly millennia. While there are a number of pollutants involved, carbon dioxide (CO2) which results from the combustion of any fossil fuel is the primary pollutant. It has not been considered a pollutant until recently because of its natural dissociation into oxygen and carbon compounds like wood. However, because of its molecular durability and ability to acidify water, it has become the primary pollutant as a result of the exponential increase in fossil fuel use for the production of energy by Earth’s population that has doubled over the last six decades. That increase has exceeded Earth’s ability to handle humanity’s waste CO2. Obviously, the involved changes detrimentally affect all life on Earth. Because of the evolving nature of the changes, climate change is presently denied primarily in the United States because of the costs of eliminating our carbon addiction. Because no similar global natural or anthropogenic situation has previously occurred during the lifetime of Homo sapiens, our extant ethical theories are incapable of confronting the crisis. Consequently, new ethical paradigms are necessary. This dissertation attempts to provide thoughts about the use of Aristotelian ethical theory, the aidōs feeling, Aquinian psychology and a possible new virtue of proper primility in an effort to further nurture the growth of the new climate change ethics.

Many populations of burbot (Lota lota)around the world have been extirpated, are endangered or are in serious decline both regarding numbers but also in size. The aim of this study was to investigate if growth and overall condition in populations of anadromous burbot in the Gulf of Bothnia has changed over time and if so, discuss potential causes behind. This was done by comparing size at age and individual level condition indices of the two populations of anadromous burbot in Sävarån and Rickleån to previous studies from the same rivers. The results showed thatgrowth of young burbot has increased between the time period 2001-2014 to 2019in Sävarånand also a change towards a higher frequency of young individuals and a lack of older ones. Furthermore, an increase over time in condition was observed in Sävarån. In Rickleån the growth at the age of 3 had increased from both 1969-1971 and 2001-2014 to 2019. At the age of 4 to 9 a decrease in growth was shown from the time period 1969-1971 to 2001-2014 in Rickleån. A shift towards warmer water temperatures due to climate change might be an explanation in the observed change in both growth and condition in the population of burbots in Sävarån and Rickleån. Furthermore, the observed change in age frequency in Sävarån could also be a result of an increase in water temperature but could also be an effect of restoration and the control of pH in Sävarån.