This research adds the growing body of literature on the role of celebrities as emergent spokespersons in climate advocacy and the process and consequences of its effects on public attitudes and behaviors to resolve the climate crisis. By applying social cognitive theory in conjunction with emotional appeals and language styles as message frames, the study examines the effects of role-modeling in adoption of eco-attitudes and behaviors. In a 2 x 2 design, the independent variables were emotion frame (fear, hope) and celebrity involvement frame (first person pronouns; FPP, non-first person pronouns; NFPP). For the manipulation check, the tweets were pilot tested. The main study was an experiment that asked participants to read tweets attributed to Leonardo DiCaprio or Pharrell Williams. Four main dependent variables were attitudes toward climate change mitigation and three behaviors, including support for government action, intention to engage in sustainable behavior, and intention to participate in activism for climate change mitigation. The role of two mediating variables (risk awareness, response efficacy) and one moderating variable, parasocial interaction (PSI) with the celebrity, were also examined. First, one-way ANCOVAs compared the effects of emotion frames to the control group. No evidence of the effects of emotion frame over unrelated messages on any dependent variables was found. Second, 2 (fear vs hope) x 2 (FPP vs NFPP) ANCOVAs found that fear-framed messages were more effective than hope-framed messages in driving intention for participation in activism, but emotion frame did not affect any other variables. The results also found that FPP frames led to more positive attitude (compared to NFPP frames), but had no effect on behaviors. Third, regression analyses found no evidence that risk awareness or response efficacy mediated the effect of emotion frames on attitudes or behaviors. In addition, the study discovered that PSI was a strong positive predictor of attitudes and all behaviors, but PSI did not moderate the impact of the celebrity involvement frame. The findings provide empirical evidence of the potential for celebrities to serve as role models in climate advocacy by psychologically involving people, which can be translated to the adoption of attitudes and behaviors.

The Earth\'s atmosphere is warming due to a combination of natural effects and anthropic activities, which are directly related to the increment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by burning fossil fuel. Brazil stands out in the world economic scenario as the main producer of ethanol, from sugar cane, considered a source of clean, renewable and economically viable energy. The expansion of this crop into pasture areas, in the Center-South region of Brazil, and the intensification in the production of this biofuel to supply the market have raised concerns about its sustainability. The agricultural is one of the main sectors responsible for the emission of GHG into the atmosphere, therefore, more studies are needed about how land use change (LUC) and production intensification, mainly due to the application of agricultural inputs rich in carbon and nitrogen, can affect GHG emissions. In the Center-South region of Brazil, the main LUC is composed of the succession native vegetation areas to pasture, and in sequence to sugarcane. Therefore, two studies were carried out aiming to determine soil GHG emissions under different land uses in the Center-South region of Brazil (Valparaíso-SP), as well as to characterize the emission factor of the main agricultural inputs in either sugarcane planting or ratoon areas. In the first study, three different land use areas were evaluated, composed of native vegetation, pasture and sugarcane. Among the land uses evaluated in this study, the soil under pasture exhibited the highest emission of carbon equivalents (CO2-eq), which was 41-fold higher than under native vegetation and 5.6-fold higher than under sugarcane. In the second study, two experiments were set up to determine the soil GHG emission fluxes after the application of sources of carbon and nitrogen during sugarcane cultivation. Experiment I: set up in a sugarcane planting area with application of ammonium nitrate, limestone and filter cake, in addition to a control treatment without application of any input. Experiment II: set up in a sugarcane ratoon area with application of vinasse and urea in the first year, and vinasse in the second year. In the first experiment, the soil tillage during the planting process produced a larger increase of soil GHG emissions when compared to the sugarcane ratoon area. Among the inputs applied to the cane plant, filter cake or ammonium nitrate produced the highest GHG emissions from the soil. On the other hand, in the area of sugarcane ratoon, the highest emissions were observed with the application of a combination of organic and mineral fertilizers (vinasse and urea), but with the application of only vinasse, the emission increment was less intense. The emission factors for C-CO2 and N-N2O reported by the IPCC are higher than those observed in this study, in the Center-South region of Brazil. The highest emission factor was observed for ammonium nitrate, with 0.13% for N-N2O in the rainy season. Thus, the expansion of sugarcane planted areas plays an important role in GHG emission. New studies on this contribution to GHG emissions are urgently needed in different regions around the world, in order to define measures to limit emissions and aiming at maintaining the sustainability of this biofuel / O aquecimento da Terra decorrente de atividades antrópicas, está diretamente relacionado ao aumento das emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) por queima de combustíveis fósseis. O Brasil se destaca no cenário econômico mundial como o principal produtor de etanol, de cana-de-açúcar, considerado uma fonte de energia limpa, renovável e economicamente viável. A expansão desta cultura sobre áreas de pastagem, na região Centro-Sul do Brasil, e a intensificação da produção deste biocombustível, necessárias para suprir o mercado têm levantado preocupações sobre a sua sustentabilidade. O setor agrícola é uma das principais fases relacionadas à emissão de GEE na atmosfera, sendo necessário maior entendimento sobre como as mudanças de uso da terra (MUT) e intensificação de produção podem afetar as emissões GEE, principalmente após a aplicação no solo de insumos agrícolas ricos em carbono e nitrogênio. Na região Centro-Sul do Brasil, a principal MUT é composta pela sucessão de áreas de vegetação nativa- pastagem- cana-de-açúcar. Foram realizados dois estudos com o objetivo de determinar as emissões de GEE do solo em diferentes usos da terra em Valparaíso-SP, bem como caracterizar o fator de emissão dos principais insumos agrícolas utilizados em áreas de cana planta e cana soca. No primeiro estudo, foram avaliadas três áreas de uso da terra, compostas por vegetação nativa, pastagem e cana-de-açúcar. Entre os sistemas de usos da terra avaliados neste estudo, a pastagem apresentou a maior emissão de carbono equivalente (CO2-eq), no qual representou cerca de 41 vezes maior do que a vegetação nativa e 5,6 vezes maior do que a cana-de-açúcar. No segundo estudo, dois experimentos foram conduzidos simultaneamente para determinar os fluxos de emissões de gases do solo após a aplicação de fontes de carbono e nitrogênio durante diferentes fases do ciclo da cana-de-açúcar. Experimento I: realizado em uma área de plantio de cana-de-açúcar com aplicação de nitrato de amônio, calcário e torta de filtro, além de um tratamento controle sem aplicação de nenhum insumo. Experimento II: área de cana soca com aplicação de vinhaça e ureia no primeiro ano, e vinhaça no segundo ano. No primeiro experimento o revolvimento do solo no processo de plantio proporcionou as maiores emissões de GEE quando comparada a área de cana soca. Dentre os insumos aplicados na cana planta, a torta de filtro ou nitrato de amônio proporcionaram as maiores emissões de GEE do solo. Por outro lado, na área de cana soca, as maiores emissões foram verificadas quando houve a combinação de fertilizante orgânico e mineral (vinhaça e ureia), sendo que com a aplicação somente de vinhaça, o aumento das emissões foi menos intenso. Os fatores de emissão para C-CO2 e N-N2O relatados pelo IPCC ainda são maiores do que os observados neste estudo, realizado na região Centro-Sul do Brasil, no qual o maior fator de emissão foi observado para nitrato de amônio, com 0,13% para N-N2O, na estação chuvosa. A expansão das áreas plantadas de cana de açúcar tem importante papel na emissão de GEE, sendo necessários novos estudos sobre essa contribuição em distintas regiões de produção em todo o mundo, na busca de medidas menos emissoras, visando a sustentabilidade deste biocombustível

O objetivo deste estudo foi verificar se existe associação entre a qualidade da água para abastecimento público proveniente do Sistema Guarapiranga e o clima da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (RMSP). Realizou-se a análise dos dados meteorológicos adquiridos junto à Estação Meteorológica do Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas da Universidade de São Paulo (IAG/USP) e dos resultados de análises laboratoriais da água do Reservatório Guarapiranga adquiridos junto à Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo (SABESP). A partir da relação entre as variáveis observadas em gráficos e testes de associação/correlação, verificou-se a associação/correlação entre a densidade de cianobactérias e as variáveis meteorológicas na RMSP, tais como temperatura atmosférica (T°C), insolação (horas de brilho do sol) e precipitação (mm). Para analisar as interações e relações de cada uma das variáveis meteorológicas em relação à densidade de cianobactérias, foram feitos diferentes recortes de tempo. Todos os dados foram organizados em Planilhas Microsoft® Excel 15.0 (Office 2013) e analisados em gráficos e testes estatísticos. Segundo os resultados deste estudo, a densidade de cianobactérias apresenta associação positiva com os períodos de chuva e temperaturas elevadas (outubro a março) e, juntamente com as análises de dados climáticos dos últimos 42 anos, verificou-se que as condições climáticas ideais para a proliferação de cianobactérias no Reservatório Guarapiranga vêm se acentuando ao longo das últimas quatro décadas, particularmente nos últimos 20 anos. Conclui-se que há indicações de que a densidade de cianobactérias no Reservatório do Sistema Guarapiranga tenha relação temperaturas mais elevadas e pluviosidade e que a proliferação de cianobactérias pode aumentar caso se mantenha a tendência do clima. / This study has aimed to verify if there is a relation between the quality of the water in the Guarapiranga System (reservoir), as it is supplied to the inhabitants, and the climate in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area (RMSP). We have analyzed the data obtained from the Weather station of the Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospherical Sciences Institute at the University of São Paulo (IAG/USP), as well as the results of the reservoir water laboratory analysis, provided by the basic sanitation company in the State of São Paulo (SABESP). Cyanobacteria density and meteorological variables in the RMSP, such as atmospheric temperature (ToC), insolation (daily solar irradiance) and precipitation (mm), were verified through association/correlation tests and graphics. To analyze the interaction and relation between cyanobacteria density and meteorological variables, were have resorted to different time spans. Data was organized in Microsoft® Excel 15.0 (Office 2013) tables and graphics, and statistically analyzed. According to this study results, cyanobacteria density might be positively associated to periods of rainfall and high temperatures (October to March). Also, along with data analysis of climate throughout the last 42 years, we have observed that the ideal climate conditions for cyanobacteria proliferation in the Guarapiranga reservoir have been stressed in the last four decades, especially during the last 20 years. Therefore, frequency and intensity of cyanobacteria proliferation in the Guarapiranga reservoir may increase according to climate trend in the RMSP.

A cartografia atual de nossas metrópoles tem origens históricas perturbadoras e disputadas por interesses hegemônicos capazes de se apoderarem de forma desigual do território. A urbanização da Cidade de São Paulo é caracterizada por um processo de construção social excludente e de supressão da maioria, que inviabilizou a criação de um modelo espacial urbano coletivamente mais justo. Embora a constância dos eventos climáticos extremos e as transformações ambientais sejam um componente a mais no desequilíbrio entre o espaço urbano construído e o ajuste ao ambiente, as consequências colhidas hoje não são apenas resultado da diagnosticada mudança climática em curso. Na verdade, ela potencializa os déficits que por anos acumularam-se ao produzir um espaço urbano que relevou fatores ambientais em sua gestão, construção e planejamento. Como estratégia de enfrentamento, o Município de São Paulo criou, em 2009, a Política Municipal de Mudança do Clima, cujo objetivo principal é alcançar a estabilização das concentrações de gases de efeito estufa na atmosfera, em um nível que impeça uma interferência antrópica perigosa no sistema climático. Esta dissertação teve como objetivo analisar a Política Municipal de Mudança do Clima a partir da inserção do Setor Saúde e de ações intersetoriais decorrentes. Utilizou-se como metodologia o modelo de Análise de Conteúdo. Concluiu-se ser refutável a hipótese da pesquisa em que se afirmava que o Setor Saúde teria suas atribuições restritas para realizar o monitoramento da qualidade do ar. Ao contrário, observou-se um redirecionamento de suas ações, em que se estabeleceu uma relação dialética intersetorial positiva, nutrindo-se, na fase de implementação, de novas forçantes políticas, tangenciando e agregando potencialidades e vulnerabilidades restritas a outras políticas já existentes e, com isso, ampliando suas dimensões no sentido da prevenção e promoção da saúde. / The current cartography of our metropolis has disturbing historical origins disputed by hegemonic interests able to unevenly seize the territory. The urbanization of the city of São Paulo is characterized by a process of social exclusion and suppression of the majority, which made unfeasible the creation of an urban spatial model collectively fairer. Although constancy of extreme weather events and environmental transformations are another component in the unbalance between the urban built environment and natural environment, the consequences obtained today are not only a result of the diagnosed climate change in progress. In fact, this maximizes the deficits which accumulated for years to produce an urban space that relented environmental factors in their management, construction and planning. As a coping strategy, the municipality of São Paulo created in 2009, the Municipal Policy on Climate Change, whose main objective is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gases concentrations in the atmosphere at a level able to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climatic system. This dissertation aimed to analyze the Municipal Policy on Climate Change from the insertion of the Health Sector and derived intersectoral actions. The Content Analysis model was used as methodology. It is concluded that the research hypothesis, which stated that the health sector would have their attributions restricted to perform the monitoring of air quality, was refutable. Instead, there was a redirection of their actions, in which a dialectical intersectoral positive relationship was established, supporting, in the implementation phase, new political forcings, adding capabilities and vulnerabilities restricted to other existing policies and with it, enlarging its dimensions towards prevention and health promotion.

A expectativa de alterações climáticas é especialmente importante para o setor agropecuário, uma vez que se trata de atividade que possui dependência dos ciclos naturais. O objetivo desta tese é avaliar impactos econômicos de cenários de mudança climática para a agricultura brasileira. Efeitos sobre áreas aptas de oito culturas (feijão, milho, soja, algodão, arroz, cana de açúcar, mandioca e café) são avaliados através de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável, o The Enormous Regional Model for Brazil - TERM-BR, e cenários disponibilizados pela Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária - EMBRAPA, baseados no Painel Intergovernamental para a Mudança Climática - IPCC. Dois cenários são simulados com horizontes distintos, um para 2020 desconsiderando mudanças sociais e econômicas (2020/A2) e outro para 2070 com adaptações sociais e econômicas, nas projeções do IPCC (2070/B2). Para 2020/A2 os efeitos negativos concentram-se nas regiões Nordeste, conseqüência do clima semi-árido e perfil produtivo da região, além dos estados de Mato Grosso e Mato Grosso do Sul, resultado de impactos sobre a área apta para o produto soja. Em oposição, neste cenário, a região Sudeste beneficia-se, pois o produto cana de açúcar observa aumentos de rendimento sob aquecimento climático brando. O resultado líquido aponta para uma pequena redução da atividade econômica (PIB), elevação de preços de gêneros alimentícios e deslocamentos regionais da mão de obra, do Nordeste e Centro Oeste para as demais regiões. Para o segundo cenário, 2070/B2, novamente o Nordeste e o Centro Oeste são as regiões mais afetadas. Porém, os ganhos para a atividade econômica da região Sudeste são menores, uma vez que o efeito benéfico sobre a cana de açúcar desaparece em cenários mais severos de mudança climática. Como conseqüência, há um declínio nacional da atividade econômica superior ao cenário anterior. Naquilo que diz respeito ao mercado de trabalho permanecem as tendências de migração da mão de obra das regiões Nordeste e Centro Oeste para as demais regiões. Contudo, esta migração concentrase, proporcionalmente, nos estratos mais qualificados do mercado de trabalho. A mudança climática, na ausência de medidas de adaptação e mitigação mais intensas pode representar um risco para regiões historicamente subdesenvolvidas ou de desenvolvimento recente. Em especial, demonstra-se que os impactos econômicos no território brasileiro são heterogêneos entre as grandes regiões e os estados que o compõem. / The outlook of climate change is especially important for the farming sector, an economic activity where connection with natural cycles is strong. The objective of this thesis is to calculate economic impacts in scenarios of climatic change for Brazilian agriculture. Effect on appropriate areas of eight harvests (beans, maize, soy, cotton, rice, sugar cane, cassava and coffee) are evaluated through a model of computable general balance, the TERM-BR, and scenes available from EMBRAPA, based on the IPCC. Two scenarios are simulated with divergent perspectives, one for 2020 disrespecting social and economic changes (2020/A2) and another one for 2070 with social and economic adaptations, in the projections of the IPCC (2070/B2). For 2020/A2 the negative effect are concentrated in the regions Northeast, consequence of the several dry climate and production profile of the region, beyond the states of Mato Grosso and South´s Mato Grosso, outcome of impacts on the appropriate region for the soy. In antagonism, in this simulation, the Southeastern region is benefited; therefore the product sugar cane registers increases of income under soft climatic change scenario. The net result points with respect to a small reduction of the economic activity (GDP), rise of prices of foodstuffs and regional migration of the labor force, from Northeast and Center West for the other regions. For as the scenario, 2070/B2, the Northeast and the Center West are the affected regions also. However, the positive results for the economic activity in the Southeastern region are lesser, outcome of the smaller beneficial shock on the sugar cane in more severe scenarios of climate change. In this sense it has a national decline of the economic activity to the previous simulation. In labor market remain the trends of migration of the labor force from Northeast and Center West regions for the other regions. Nevertheless, this migration is intense, proportionally, in most qualified persons of the labor market. The climate change, in the lack of measures of intense adaptation and mitigation can represent a risk for historically underdeveloped regions or regions of recent development. In special, shows that the economic impacts in the Brazilian territory are heterogeneous between the great regions and the states that compose it.

Rapid climate change is a significant threat to the long-term persistence of native tree populations. Concern has been expressed that tree populations might fail to adapt due to rate of change, insufficient adaptive variation in tree populations and limits to dispersal. In contrast, others have contended that most tree species have high phenotypic plasticity, maintain high levels of within-population genetic variation and exhibit effective gene dispersal capability, all characteristics which should enable an adaptive response. To assess the potential adaptability of tree populations we need to understand their genetic diversity and phenotypic plasticity to build on the currently limited evidence base and guide decisions about seed sourcing for establishment of new woodlands desired to meet ambitious planting targets. Currently the seed sourcing system divides the island in four regions of similar size although it is not based on any genetic or ecological information. We discuss the suitability of this system with the insight of the data collected from native tree populations growing in experimental trials. In this thesis we study genetic diversity and phenotypic plasticity patterns in over 30 native tree populations across all Great Britain for three broadleaved species: ash (Fraxinus excelsior), rowan (Sorbus aucuparia), and silver birch (Betula pendula). To obtain these data we assessed the variation in multiple traits in several common garden experiments for each species, which were grown in contrasting environments. There is a tendency in provenance experiments to consider height as a proxy for fitness. We demonstrate that tree height is not enough to understand tree fitness and its adaptability capacity. We assessed our tree populations for growth (survival, tree height, DBH), stem form (number of forks), leaf phenology (leaf flushing and senescence) and leaf anatomical traits (leaf area, stomatal density and stomatal size).Great Britain has very distinct and heterogeneous environments likely to have given rise to adaptive differentiation. Knowing the geographical pattern of the genetic differences we can see the direction selective pressures have had on each of the traits studied, and we compare differences in patterns across the traits and species. Comparing populations growing in different environments we assessed the variation in phenotypic plasticity by trait and the direction of these plasticity. We found that tree populations across Great Britain are highly genetically variable and show genetic differences which have a geographical pattern, and that the patterns and size of the differences vary by species. Phenotypic plasticity varies across traits and interactions between genotype and environment make plasticity in some traits more unpredictable than others. We conclude that tree populations of ash, rowan and birch are well adapted to the diverse and oceanic climate of Great Britain, and that levels of genetic diversity and phenotypic plasticity provide a high capacity to respond to environmental change.

There is little doubt that anthropogenic climate change will have long lasting, unavoidable, large scale and cross sector effects. Having a clear understanding of the scale and rate of projected future changes, and the potential impacts of those changes at multiple spatial and temporal scales, will be important to allow environmental managers the best chance of adapting to changing conditions. There are particular concerns about impacts on freshwater systems due to the coupling of direct impacts to both hydrology and ecology. Expected changes can be grouped into three functional categories: those affecting physico-chemical (broadly water quality), hydromorphological (physical structure and habitat) and biological elements of the lake system. The Lake-Landscape Context framework provides a way of approaching the sensitivity or resilience of an individual lake to change by exploring the complex and multi-layered relations between water, land and human activity. However, the exact combination of strategies and actions available to environmental managers is yet to be comprehensively documented beyond broad principles. To reach this goal, to manage our ecosystems in the most comprehensive and responsible way, we need to have a clear understanding of what and where that resource is, what the conservation priorities currently are and where threats to these priorities are likely to emerge. Therefore, the overall aim of this thesis was to develop adaptation strategies to minimise climate change impacts on the conservation interests of Scotland’s standing freshwater. This was approached through the adoption of the ESVRA conceptual framework, intended to assist policymakers and practitioners in adaptation planning. Practical actions can be guided by working through the framework’s four key stages: understanding exposure to the pressure (external drivers); considering the sensitivity and resilience of the system at multiple scales (internal functions); exploring areas of vulnerability (a measure of sensitivity plus exposure); and consideration of multiple possible responses across spatial and temporal scales. Chapter 2 explores the lake resource making use of the latest geospatial data and GIS techniques to investigate Scottish standing freshwaters in depth. 5,165 Scottish lakes exhibit an outstanding myriad of forms and sizes ranging across the country. This variety of form, density and distribution contribute to habitats of international importance for numerous species. Perhaps because of this diversity, no natural grouping of lakes were found based on simple hydromorphological categorisations. The use of landscape and wildness ‘scoring’ is a novel geographic approach, which may be an important factor in how landscapes are valued in the future. Chapter 3 investigates the direct exposure to global climate change facing Scotland. Projected changes to global climate were downscaled to illustrate impact on the UK and Scotland using both the UKCP09 and HadGEM2-ES climate models. Climate change by the 2050s will impact the UK in the range 1.1°C to 2.7°C with a clear South-East/North-West gradient. Precipitation too is projected to change in the UK in this time, with annual precipitation varying from -65 to +116 mm/yr. By incorporating the climate model data into a GIS it was possible to further interrogate the results for specific locations, with a detailed water balance model created for all 5165 lakes. This model suggests that during the summer months there will be sustained periods of water scarcity and deficit. Finally, in this chapter, a climate change spatial risk assessment was undertaken, identifying 200 lakes in the area of greatest projected change. Leading on from these findings, Chapter 4 explores the vulnerability of Scotland’s standing freshwaters. A vulnerability framework attempts to place resilience as a key part of the model, which has to date been missing from similar assessments. The expert weighted scoring mechanism highlights 851 of Scotland’s standing freshwaters, geographically spread across the country, as being highly vulnerable to projected climate changes. The results were mapped to show the vulnerability across Scotland and a display system for individual lakes proposed that allows a transparent and coherent structure that can shed light on distinct components of vulnerability, so that each can be evaluated individually, and in combination. Finally, in Chapter 5, a multipart online survey with key stakeholder experts actively involved in freshwater environmental management was produced to approach adaptation strategies and actions themselves. Over 80 adaptation actions specifically applicable to Scotland’s standing freshwaters were collated and grouped into 12 adaptation strategies. All 12 strategies were considered desirable with six strategies considered ‘Definitely feasible’, a further four considered ‘Likely feasible’. This provides a framework of potential actions that could help to reduce system sensitivity by increasing adaptive capacity or system resilience. In conclusion, while there are undoubtedly challenges ahead for Scotland’s standing freshwaters and for those who manage them, there is clear opportunity to make proactive and engaged decisions to minimise the impact of climate changes on the conservation interest of these important habitats.

This thesis outlines the notion of '<i>Disruptive Futuring'</i> as a new design methodology to addressing climate change. It is founded on making a connection between our behaviour as individuals and the environment. Since the publishing of 'Our Common Future' (Brundtland Commission.1987) major bodies have been publicly documenting the damage that climate change is having on the planet. This has been followed by the creation of United Nations Climate Change Conference international incentives including the Kyoto Protocol and national attempts including government departments and NGO projects. All have been directed to address the issue of climate change but have seen minimal success. Psychology plays a significant role in understanding and promoting human behavioural change and how we prioritise particular decisions or actions. However, until recently it has carried less weight in a design approach to solving behavioural problems in climate change. The primary issue is that climate change isn't a normal behavioural problem, and numerous psychologists including Stoknes (2015) highlight its incompatibility with innate human motivation. Newly explored areas within psychology and behavioural economics expose some of the reasons we may react to climate change with lower importance then other less damaging problems. <i>Disruptive Futuring</i> provides a new methodology based on thinkers such as Fogg (2002), Gilbert (2015), Dubner and Levitt. (2009), Marshall(2014), Pink(2009) and Stoknes (2015) to improve quantitative and qualitative adoption of designed interventions aimed at changing behaviours in order to accelerate human actions affecting climate change. This thesis takes a research through design approach that incorporates reflective practice. The research builds upon a literature review evaluating our connection with climate change, resulting in combining behavioural psychology with mapping and lens methods. <i>Disruptive Futuring</i> is presented as anew design methodology that develops new types of behavioural change using what Thaler & Sunstein (2009) describe as "Nudge" as a process to reroute people to new actions and flows in their everyday lives. These behavioural changes are achieved through framing climate change in ways humans are motivated by. Three practice-based projects pilot the methodology of <i>Disruptive Futuring</i> by exploring the topics of energy, water and food. These areas were selected because of their significance to our physiological requirements as highlighted by Maslow (1943). The projects result in three systems-based interventions aimed at changing behaviours that negatively impact climate change. It is observed through reflection that this methodology provides a context for designers to work in an oblique way; it has a preference to influence thinking and designing in systems; and that complex psychological concepts can be applied through designed interventions that reduce the conflict between our psychological composition and the human perception of climate change. This research explores the capability and capacity for <i>Disruptive Futuring </i>to bring climate change psychology into a unified way for designers to use during the conception and research stages of designing interventions, technology or services that target behavioural change, decisions making and create new ways of living to have less impact on climate change.

This study addresses the question of how climate variability, in terms of seasonal rainfall variation, might affect food security in Malawi. It hypothesizes that seasonal rainfall variation could cause food insecurity and that the consequences of weather hazards possibly differ within the country. An additional aim of this study is therefore to map local resilience in Malawi to estimate the adaptation ability by analyzing two subsamples. The hypothesis is tested by using a two-way fixed effect regression analysis and panel data for 28 districts in Malawi covering the years 2000, 2004, 2010 and 2015. This study finds no statistically significant effect of seasonal rainfall variation on children’s health for the examined years.

This research examines the legal issues arising in the inter-relationship between climate change law and policy on the one hand, and international trade regulation on the other. The focus is government procurement. It looks at “green” government procurement (GPP) policies and practices used by the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol as a tool for climate change mitigation, and as it relates to these countries’ obligations under the WTO Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA). GPP is government purchase practice that favours goods, services and service suppliers that are more climate-friendly and energy efficient over similar others that are less so. For example, under the EU GPP policy, for climate reasons, procurement authorities have a preference for green electricity (generated from renewable sources) as against the conventional fossil-based electricity. The two types of “electricities” are ordinarily same products as far as their performance is concerned, that is, at the consumption level. Discriminating between the two has the potential to raise serious issues of law at WTO level.Under the WTO non-discrimination disciplines (GATT Arts. I and III, and GPA Art.III) product or service standards based on non-product related processes and production methods (PPMs) such as climate friendliness should not serve to permit differentiation in treatment between “like” products. The general exceptions provisions (GATT Art. XX(b) and (g) and GPA Art. XXIII) however, may permit such climate-related differential measures if they are: (1) necessary to achieve the legitimate policy objective intended, (2) not applied in a discriminatory manner and (3) not a disguised restriction on international trade. There are two issues of major concern to this study: First, there are textual discrepancies as between the GATT and GPA provisions related both to the nondiscrimination norms and the exceptions, which may pose interpretation difficulties in the event of a dispute. Secondly, the provisions of GATT Art. XX (b) and (g) are interpreted to refer to environment in general terms. However, the current trend is to single out and address climate change separately from among other environmental problems of transboundary nature. This is in view of the urgency associated with the challenge it poses. Generally, also, in accordance with established WTO jurisprudence, the party who invokes the GATT Art. XX exceptions bears the burden to prove the measure in question as being covered under the exceptions. Some scholars suggest that this situation places at a disadvantage the subjects covered by the exception provisions (in this case climate-related procurement). Examined, therefore, is not only the extent to which GPP practices can be accommodated under these exceptions, which are also in line with the WTO’s recognition of the principles of sustainable development, but also whether climate-friendly procurement is best protected if expressly provided for as “positive norm” in the text of the GPA. The Revised GPA 2007 (not yet in force) contains a new paragraph (Art. X:6) which explicitly permits the Parties to include environmental considerations in their procurement policies. This study argues that the revision would not fundamentally address the issues observed earlier. In order to avoid the interpretation difficulties envisaged, and to promote mutual supportiveness and coherence between the climate and trade regimes further amendment would be necessary to the text of Art. XXIII of the GPA to the general exceptions, or in the alternative, to Art. X:6 of the Revised GPA. The amendment should, subject to appropriate conditions, explicitly permit discriminatory GP measures meant to address climate change subject. This amendment would effectively shift the burden of proof from the Party maintaining the measure to the one complaining against it. In the final analysis, this research will contribute to the current discourse on what role the WTO may play in the efforts to fashion out new international climate policy to succeed the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC by 2012.