Climate is a long-term driver of ecological change, but the rapidity with which climate is projected to change over the next century may push the limitations of ecological adaptability, to the detriment of biodiversity. Given their typically small populations, limiting biological traits and exposure to external stressors, species currently classified as “at risk” may be among the most vulnerable to climate change and least capable of adapting naturally. A screening level assessment of the impacts of climate change on endangered species in Canada was conducted by integrating knowledge of the current status and characteristics of each endangered species with projections of climate change and climate change impacts. It was determined that climate change may have a potential overall negative influence on more than half of all endangered species in Canada. However, while relatively few species were predicted to respond in an overall positive or neutral manner to climate change, a large portion of endangered species were classified as having insufficient information to generate a decision on the net influence of climate change; in many cases, these species were located at the northern extent of their range in warmer regions of Canada and have the potential to experience at least some benefits under climate change provided that other stressors are sufficiently mitigated. These results, as well as the inherent vulnerability of species at risk to environmental change, the potential for species at risk distributional shifts and the likelihood of increasing rates of species imperilment, demonstrate the need for greater consideration of the implications of climate change in species at risk management and policy. Canada’s Species at Risk Act (SARA) does not explicitly address the issue of climate change and limitations exist in SARA’s time-sensitive definition of wildlife species eligible for protection in Canada and in the interpretation of SARA’s mandates in the context of anthropogenically driven climate change. It is recommended that climate change be systematically considered in all species at risk assessments, recovery strategies and management plans and that SARA’s definition of a wildlife species be revaluated in light of shifting species distributions under climate change. Further recommendations to identify “values” that will assist in prioritizing species for conservation, to reassess the concept of an invasive species under climate change and to implement strategies that focus more broadly on the conservation of biodiversity and ecological integrity rather than individual species may require ethically complex discussions and decisions on the part of species at risk managers and policy makers. Future research should focus on informing species at risk management and policy by improving modeling capabilities at the species level, conducting in-depth analyses of priority species, and building knowledge of alternative species conservation strategies such as assisted colonization.

Increasingly the body of research shows that tourism is vulnerable to climate change. Tourism is also a non-negligible contributor to climate change, primarily through rapidly increasing air travel. Recently, a number of tourism destinations that are dependent on long-haul tourism have expressed concerns about the impact of climate policy (both implemented and proposed) on tourist mobility and arrivals to their countries. This thesis examines outcomes from a model which projects how climate mitigation policy could influence arrival numbers to the Caribbean region; an area projected to be disproportionately impacted by climate change. While impacts on this region are likely to be both physical as well as economical, mitigation policy restricting emissions from international aviation is likely to be the first wave of climate change effects felt. This policy, coupled with the fluctuation of global oil prices, may be a significant deterrent for travelers to the Caribbean. Different scenarios using likely mitigation policy costs on international flights and oil price fluctuations were modeled to understand how these tourism-dependent nations might fair with increases in travel cost due to conditions beyond their control. Both region-wide and destination specific results were examined showing that visitor numbers could decrease versus a business as usual scenario with climate policy and heightened oil prices, but not significantly until climate policy with deeper emission cuts and carbon prices higher than currently suggested are put in place. Result are not uniform across the region, and show that certain destinations are projected to be more vulnerable to climate mitigation policy than others. Recommendations focusing on both the aviation industry’s inclusion in climate policy and those to aid the region’s tourism sector are provided.

In its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change estimated that global mean temperature will increase between 1.8 to 4.0°C by the end of the 21st century. An increase in global temperature by even a few degrees could have significant environmental and economic impacts, and mean that economic sectors that are better able to adapt to a changing climate will prosper, and those that are not may decline, relocate or disappear. Traditional resource sectors, which are highly reliant on environmental conditions, such as agriculture and forestry have been considering the implications of climate change for several decades. The tourism sector, which is also highly reliant on environmental factors, has only begun to consider the possible impacts of climate change over the past five to seven years. The integrated effects of a changing climate are anticipated to have far-reaching consequences for the rapidly growing global tourism economy and the communities that rely on the sector. In fact, the United Nations World Tourism Organization [UNWTO], United Nations Environment Program [UNEP] and World Meteorological Organization [WMO] identified climate change as the ‘greatest challenge to the sustainability of the global tourism industry in the 21st century’. The winter tourism sector has been repeatedly identified as vulnerable to climate change due mainly to the high susceptibility of mountain environments and the projected reduction in natural snow availability. The international ski industry has received the most detailed attention because of the sector’s high cultural and economic importance in many regions. The multi-billion dollar ski sector is highly vulnerable to changes in both regional and local climate and as a result has been projected to experience decreased natural snow reliability resulting in decreased season length, increased snowmaking requirements, increased operating costs, and decreased revenues in association with decreased visitation. The overarching goal of this dissertation is to examine climate change vulnerability (see glossary of terms, p. xi) (both- supply and demand-sides) for the entire US Northeast ski tourism sector in order to understand how the regional marketplace, as a whole, is likely to change in response to projected climate change. Previous research has been piecemeal in its approach (i.e. examining either supply or demand) and has largely neglected to examine climate change vulnerability of the ski sector from a systems-based perspective (i.e. examining both supply and demand for a single marketplace). Understanding how the US Northeast ski area marketplace may contract under climate change conditions including how ski area competitors may fair under future conditions, and how demand-side behavioural response is likely to occur, would allow ski area operators and managers to develop and implement appropriate adaptation strategies that can help reduce the negative impacts of change while taking advantage of any opportunities. The research revealed that there is likely to be a contraction of ski area supply, which favours those ski areas that are able to afford the increased cost of adapting to projected changes in climatic conditions. Ski areas that are situated at higher elevations or are located in the northern portion of the Northeast region, were found to be at an advantage due to lower temperatures and more precipitation falling as snow. Ski areas in Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and northeastern New York were projected to maintain longer season lengths, require less snowmaking and be more likely to be operational during the economically important Christmas-New Year holiday than ski areas in Connecticut or Massachusetts. The extent to which skiers intend to change their skiing behaviour in response to the projected impacts on ski area supply were not significantly greater than the extent to which they already change their skiing habits when current conditions are poor. This suggests that the future response to climate change is likely to be similar to that which has been observed during marginal snow conditions of the past, and that demand for skiing opportunities is not likely to reduce proportionally to the expected reduction in supply. In which case, the ski areas that are able to remain operational under projected climate change, may be able to take advantage of a possible geographic market shift (i.e. greater demand/market share for ski areas that remain). If there is a net transfer of demand throughout the remaining marketplace, it would mean that some communities would need to prepare for development pressures (e.g. water use for snowmaking, real estate development, slope expansion, congestion) associated with the concentration of ski tourism in fewer areas, while others would need to prepare for economic diversification and investment in alternative industries (i.e. adapted snow-based industry or non-snow-based industry).

Recreational boating in the Great Lakes is suggested to fuel tourism and the Ontario economy. Like many other tourism sectors, boating-tourism is a highly climate-sensitive economic sector which significantly relies upon compromising climatic conditions. Climate change in the 21st century is projected to alter climatic parameters in the Great Lakes region, thereby generating low lake water conditions and inadequate water levels within some marina facilities that cater to recreational boats. This study examines the multiple implications lakeside marina facilities have previously endured during low water conditions and the possible implications they may experience during three scenarios of water level reductions as a result of climate change. Among the five Great Lakes, Lake Huron has become one of the most prominent lakes for understanding the relationship between climate variability and water-level fluctuations. A questionnaire was administered to 58 marina operators on the Canadian Lake Huron coastline. The questionnaire results were analysed, indicating implications Lake Huron marina operators experienced at their facilities during low water conditions and methods of adaptation that they used to overcome these conditions. The results also projected future implications that may result from climate change and reduced water levels. The most imminent impacts Canadian marina facilities on the Lake Huron coastline would endure as a result of climate change and low water conditions would be the loss of docking slips and potential marina closures. Without adaptation of marina infrastructure, future implications on some Lake Huron Canadian marina facilities may cause substantial economic loss for nearby communities and businesses. Economic losses resulting from lake level water reductions and reduced boat-based expenditures for two regions located on Lake Huron's Georgian Bay shoreline are derived in the study. It is anticipated that the results of this study will provide significant groundwork for systematic and regional evaluations on the impacts in which climate change has upon Great Lake marinas and boat-based tourism.

The Challenge of System Justification for Acknowledging and Responding to Environmental Dilemmas and Climate Change

Jalisco es un estado altamente vulnerable a los efectos del cambio climático. El estado es vulnerable a sequías en el norte e inundaciones en las costas. Jalisco también es un estado con un sector agrícola de alta producción. Los efectos del cambio climático ponen en riesgo esta producción agrícola, que en turno tendría efectos negativos en las familias agrícolas y la economía del estado. A través de varias estrategias de adaptación al nivel del agricultor y del gobierno, se puede crear un sector agrícola con posibilidades para afrontar los efectos del cambio climático con éxito. Para crear estas estrategias de una manera justa y eficaz, se podría usar el marco de las policy sciences durante la formulación para políticas públicas. El marco de las policy sciences promueve la colaboración entre las partes interesadas durante el proceso del desarrollo de políticas públicas. Por medio de la colaboración de las agencias gubernamentales, los agricultores, las organizaciones no gubernamentales, los centros de investigación y la ciudadanía se pueden crear e efectuar estrategias eficaces para adaptar al sector agrícola jalisciense a los efectos del cambio climático.

According to the Global Climate Risk Index, Bangladesh with its densely populated coastal areas is considered as one of the most vulnerable countries affected by climate change in the world. In this context, the goal of this research is to assess the social vulnerability of the south-western coastal communities of the country,which is becoming more vulnerable, trying to understand the underlying social conditions of coastal people who are dependent on limited natural resources. To do so, vulnerability indicators of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity are analyzed using quantitative data collected from different sample areas and focus group discussions (FGD) were held with the local women in two study areas. The results show that a community in the area have close dependency on natural resources such as water, mangrove forest and also has a limited set of livelihood options. Also many households, above the traditional fishing and agriculture, have no secondary occupation or alternative livelihood options. Therefore, unpredictable seasonal patterns on the sea and land would threat livelihood and mainly their food security. Considering that the coastal areas have potential opportunities for nation’s sustainable development, assessing on social vulnerability to climate change will help to create regulation and awareness programs in order to minimize vulnerabilities.

The study compiles and summarizes the existing knowledge about observed and projected impacts of climate change on agriculture in the Carpathian region, putting it in the context of rural development and giving suggestions for regional adaptation strategy.There are some differences in the social and age structures, stability of settlements and rates of unemployment within the Carpathian region. Adaptive capacity is higher in the Northern and Western Carpathians where there are more non-agricultural employment opportunities that could act as a safety net in case of loss of the harvest. Indicators show gradual decrease of well-being from North-West to South-East, which coincides with projected changes in the precipitation and severity of climate impacts. Southern part of the region (Romania and the Republic of Serbia) is identified as the most vulnerable.To achieve broader goal of sustainable agriculture in the face of climate change, the economic structure of rural areas should be reformed towards diversification of employment options, improvement of infrastructure and better access to services. Rich in biodiversity and beautiful landscapers, the Carpathian region offers significant opportunities in the field of eco- and rural tourism development. A regional adaptation strategy should focus on raising awareness to facilitate autonomous adaptation, climate proofing of the policies and creating favourable conditions for social entrepreneurship and green business.

The Red Tail site is one of 19 archaeological sites that lie within central Saskatchewan’s Wanuskewin Heritage Park. Since the creation of a long-term research program in 1984, many of these sites have been excavated making this the longest running archaeological project in Canada. This has provided an extensive body of archaeological evidence of human activity dating as early as the Early Precontact Period. Despite the extensive archaeological excavation and research that has occurred, relatively few geomorphic and paleoenvironmental studies have been conducted within the area. Paleoenvironmental data provide important context in building archaeological interpretations of past lifeways. The Red Tail site was originally excavated in 1988 and 1989 to a depth of approximately 2.7 m. In 2007, the site was revisited in order to conduct subsurface coring to a depth of over 6 m using a Geoprobe coring rig. This method allowed recovery of culturally sterile soils/sediments beyond the depth of the original excavation. This project includes analysis of these cores in order to investigate geomorphic processes active at the site and proxy indicators of paleoenvironment and paleoclimate. Analysis of two of the cores included detailed description of the recovered soils and sediments, as well as stable isotope and phytolith analysis of selected units in one of the cores. This suite of methods provides a robust, multi-proxy interpretation of geomorphic change and paleoenvironmental conditions at the site. The site was geomorphically active during the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene, reflective of a dynamic and fluctuating climate following the glacial retreat. As the environment became more stable during the Middle to Late Holocene, periods of landscape stability are reflected in a sequence of buried soils. The paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic record recovered from these buried soils shows a fairly consistent history of C3-plant dominated communities, reflective of moist, cool climate conditions. The relatively stable environmental and climatic conditions reflected at the site contribute to the understanding of the Wanuskewin area as an oasis on the prairies.

In Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, open reservoirs provide the majority of the drinking water. In the study present and future condition of these water sources and supplies were systematically assessed regarding water quantities. The study was done by reviewing municipal documents and accessing meteorological, hydrological and demographical data in Addis Ababa. 0%, 5% and 10% change in reservoir inflow/rainfall were used and projections for 2020 and 2030 were used to estimate future temperature and population sizes. The result indicated that supplied water quantity per capita from surface sources in Addis Ababa is likely to be reduced. Both climate and socio-economic related vulnerabilities were identified and the four following got the highest risk score: Increases in population, increased per capita water demand, overexploited land and increased distribution losses.At present the annual increase in population in Ethiopia is 4.4% and annual GDP increase is 7%, leading to a growing water demand in Addis Ababa. If the water supplies are not substantially increased the situation will lead to water scarcity. By 2020 water demand coverage will be 34% and by 2030 22%, compared with the current 50% coverage.Overexploited land was also identified as a major vulnerability due to the impact on catchment hydrology and distribution losses, caused by insufficient maintenance and replacement of aged pipes. At present 20% of the treated water is lost and it is likely to increase during the coming decades. However, the climate change induced rainfall variability is unlikely to cause large problems within the observed timeframe. Even with a 100 year drought 14% of the available water would be spill due to the limited reservoir capacity.To secure future water distribution Addis Ababa Water and Sewerage Authority (AAWSA) should build dams north of the Entoto ridge. They should also gain further understanding about and find appropriate measures for, highlighted vulnerabilities. A full vulnerability assessment should be done by AAWSA and they should consider implementing a „Water Safety Plan‟ for the whole water supply system.