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The United States is the single largest contributor of greenhouse gas emissions. Its engagement is therefore critical to the success of any international effort to prevent man-made global climate change. It was therefore a huge step-back for the international community when President Bush soon after taking office in 2001 rejected the Kyoto Protocol. Despite a strong opposition the international community did not convince the Bush administration to reconsider its decision and re-engage in the Kyoto Protocol process. The objective of this thesis is to investigate which central elements that will increase a US inclination to participate in international agreements after the first commitment period in the Kyoto Protocol. These elements were found through a literature study of four peer-reviewed articles and an empirical analysis of four international partnership agreements. The overall conclusion is that there are several central elements that could increase a US inclination to participate in international agreements after the first commitment period in the Kyoto Protocol. These elements cover a wide range of disciplines from technology over research and development to business interests.

<p>The effects of climate change on forest dynamics will be determined by tree responses at different life-stages and different scales -- from establishment to maturity and from individuals to populations. Studies incorporating local factors, such as natural enemies, competition, or tree physiology, with sufficient variation in climate are lacking. The importance of global and regional climate variation vs. local conditions and responses is poorly understood and may only be addressed with large datasets capturing sufficient environmental variation. This dissertation uses several large datasets to examine tree demographic and ecophysiological responses to light, moisture, predation, and climate in eastern temperate forests of North Carolina. </p><p> First, I use a 19-yr seed rain record from 13 forest plots in the piedmont, transition zone, and mountains to examine how climate-mediated seed maturation and density-dependent seed predation processes increase population reproductive variation in nine temperate tree species (Chapter 1). I address several hypotheses explaining interannual reproductive variation, such as resource matching, predator satiation, and pulse resource dynamics. My results indicate that (1) interannual reproductive variation increased as a result of seed maturation and seed predation processes, (2) seed maturation rates increased under warm, wet conditions, and (3) seed predation rates exhibited negative and positive density-dependence, depending of tree species and type of seed predator (specialist insects vs. generalist vertebrates). Because positive density-dependent seed predation dampened and negative density-dependent seed predation amplified the effects of climate-mediated maturation on reproductive variation, this study showed evaluations of tree reproduction need to incorporate both climate and seed predation.</p><p> Next, I use an 11-yr record of annual tree seedling growth and survival in 20 tree species planted in the piedmont and mountains to quantify individual tree seedling growth and survival responses to spatial variation in resources and temporal variation in climate (Chapter 2). First, I tested whether height-mediated growth provides an advantage to large individuals in all environments by amplifying responses to light and moisture or only when those resources were plentiful. Second, I tested whether allometric and survival responses differed among species based on life-history strategies. Individual height amplified tree seedling growth. However, some species exhibited amplification at moderate to high resource levels as well as depression of growth in large individuals growing in low light and moisture environments. Shade intolerant species exhibited an increasing ratio of height to diameter growth and increasing survival probability with both increasing light and moisture resources. Conversely, shade tolerant species exhibited decreasing height to diameter ratio with increasing light, possibly because of biomass allocation toward acquisition of limiting light resources. Despite relative small effects of drought and winter temperature of tree seedling demography, the results of this study indicate that individual tree seedlings sensitive to light and moisture environments, such as large seedlings and seedlings of shade intolerant species, growing in shaded or xeric sites may be particularly vulnerable to climate induced mortality. </p><p> Finally, I examine interannual and interspecific variation in canopy conductance using four years of environmental (vapor pressure deficit, above canopy light, and soil moisture) and stem sap flux data from heat dissipation probes for six co-occurring tree species. I developed a state-space modeling framework for predicting canopy conductance and transpiration which incorporates uncertainty in canopy and observation uncertainty. This approach is used to evaluate the degree to which co-occur deciduous tree species exhibited drought tolerating and drought avoiding canopy responses and whether these patterns were maintained in the face of interannual variation in environmental drivers. Comparisons of canopy conductance responses to environmental forcing across species and years highlighted the importance of tree sensitivity to moisture limitation, both in terms of high vapor pressure deficit and low soil moisture, and tree hydraulic characteristics within diverse forest communities. The state-space model produced similar parameter estimates to the more traditional boundary line analysis, performed well in terms of in-sample and out-of-sample prediction of sap flux observations, and provided for coherent incorporation of parameter, process, and observation errors in predicting missing data (i.e., gap-filling), canopy conductance, and transpiration.</p><p> Much needs to be learned about forest community responses to climate change, however these responses depend on local growing conditions (light and moisture), the life-stage being examined (seedlings, juveniles, or mature trees), and the scale of inference (individuals, canopies, or populations). Because climate change will not occur in isolation from other factors, such as stand age or disturbance, studies must characterize tree responses across multidimensional gradients in growing conditions. This dissertation addresses these challenges using large demographic and ecophysiological datasets well-suited for global change research.</p> / Dissertation

The reduction green house gases (GHG) and migitation of climate change have become great challenges to mankind. Taiwan¡¦s households, which account for about 13% of the GHG emissions in Taiwan, are certainly a target for GHS and energy reduction. Based on the theory of planned behavior and Stern and Gardner's (1981) typology of energy saving behavior, this study proposed a model of curtailment behavior toward climate change (CCC model) and a model of efficiency action toward climate change (ECC model). Results of confirmatory factor analysis showed that both models were useful. The CCC model could predict people's intent to take curtailment actions and actual behavior, whereas the ECC model could predict people's intent to take efficiency actions. However, the functions of independent variables were different by gender in both models. Subjective norm influnce the dependent variable significantly only in ECC model. This study suggests some energy saving methods, according to the literatures and the findings.

Flooding inundation during hurricanes has been very costly and dangerous. However, the impact of climate change on hurricane flooding is not well understood at present. As sea surface temperatures increase, it is expected that hurricane intensity will increase and sea levels will rise. It is further hypothesized that climate change will increase hurricane flooding inundation, which would increase property damages and adversely affect a greater number of people. This thesis presents a case study of Corpus Christi, Texas, which analyzes the impact of climate change on hurricane flooding. Sea level rise projections and intensification of historical hurricanes were considered in this study. Storm surges were determined with the ADCIRC numerical model, while GIS was used to estimate area flooded, property damages, and population affected. Flooding inundation, property damages, and number of people affected by flooding increases as the intensity of the hurricane increases. As hurricane intensity increases and sea levels rise, the depth of flooding also increases dramatically. Based on two historical hurricanes and one shifted historical hurricane, on average the inundated area increases about 11 km2 per degree Celsius of sea surface temperature rise, the property damages increase by about $110 million per degree Celsius of sea surface temperature rise, and the number of people affected by flooding inundation increases by about 4,900 per degree Celsius of sea surface temperature rise. These results indicate that it may become necessary to consider the effects of climate change when building future coastal communities and adapting the protection of existing communities.

In this dissertation, I study the effects of climate change on agricultural total factor productivity and crop yields and their variability. In addition, an examination was conducted on the value of select climate change adaptation strategies in forestry. Across the study, the climate change scenarios analyzed were based on the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. Climate change impacts on the returns to research investments were examined extending the work of Huffman and Evenson (2006), incorporating climatic effects. The conjecture is that the rate of return of agricultural research is falling due to altered resource allocations and unfavorable weather conditions, arising from the early onset of climate change. This work was done using a panel model of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) for the forty-eight contiguous states over 1970?1999. Climatic variables such as temperature and amount and intensity of precipitation were added into the model. The main results are (1) climate change affects research productivity, varying by region; (2) this effect is generally negative; (3) additional investments are needed to achieve pre-climate change TFP rates of growth; and (4) the predicted investment increases are on the order of 18%. The second inquiry involved the impact of historical climatic conditions on the statistical distributions of crop yields through mean and variability. This was done statistically, using historical yields for several crops in the US, and climate variables, with annual observations from 1960 to 2007. The estimation shows that climate change is having an effect on the first two moments of the distribution, concluding that crop yield distributions are not stationary. The implication is that risk analysis must consider means and volatility measures that depend on future climatic conditions. The analysis shows that future mean yields will increase, but volatility will also be greater for the studied crops. These results have strong implication for future crop insurance decisions. Finally, an examination was done on the value of select forestry adaptation strategies in the face of climate change. This work is motivated by the known fact that forestry sector is already heavily adapted to changing climatic conditions. Using the Forestry and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model for the United States (FASOM), I found that rotation age is the most effective adaptation strategy being worth about 60 billion dollars, while changes in species and management intensity are worth about 1.5 billion, and land use change between forestry to agriculture is worth about 200,000.

In 2003, the U.S. Department of Energy created regional joint governmentindustry partnerships as part of a larger incentive to develop carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies to address the issue of climate change. As part of their missions, DOE and their partners are responsible for creating and distributing public outreach and education materials discussing climate change and CCS technologies. In this dissertation, I sought to evaluate processes for communicating CCS to the public by examining different pathways including direct communication through DOE and regional partnership websites (Chapter I), news media from states with energy projects proposed or underway (Chapter II), and alternative strategies for communication such as an online educational game for youth (Chapter IV). My study also included focus groups in communities where CCS technologies have been piloted to determine public knowledge and acceptance of CCS (Chapter III). In Chapter I, a critique of DOE and partnership websites, I found authority to be a dominant theme throughout DOE and partnership website content, often incorporating technical jargon beyond laymen understanding and, in many cases, targeting industry audiences over the intended public. In Chapter II, I analyzed newspaper articles from the states of Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana and Texas using Luhmann’s social theory and the SPEED framework to determine how CCS has been framed by the media. Findings indicated that political, legal, economic and technical frames dominated, with emphasis on benefits, rather than risks of adoption. I also found that CCS reporting increased dramatically as pilot projects started to come on line. In my study of community acceptance of CCS in the American Southwest, Chapter III, I found that participants focused their conversations on industry and government knowledge, risks and unknowns of CCS and processes for decision-making. These topics also provided an impetus for caution. Skepticism and distrust of government entities and corporations influenced participant willingness to accept storage risks to mitigate for CO2 emissions. After open discussion of pros and cons associated with the technology, however, participants were more willing to consider CCS as an option, indicating a need to talk through the issue and to come to their own conclusions. Finally, in focus groups used to evaluate of an online game titled The Adventures of Carbon Bond, I found that it was difficult for participants to discuss environmental issues with students that are viewed as contentious (i.e. climate change and CCS), but that gaming was a valuable tool for addressing such sensitive subjects. Overall, these four chapters demonstrate that communication of CCS has only reached portions of the public and has not consistently connected with those potentially impacted by the technology. They also show that CCS must overcome numerous barriers to deployment, foremost of which is public acceptance.

Climate change is possibly the greatest threat facing human society in this century. The response to this challenge has been dominated by international negotiations for controlling greenhouse gas emissions. More recently there are efforts by the international community to engage other levels of governance in mitigation and adaptation response. While the framework for international action on climate change continues to evolve, there is mounting pressure from researchers to include cities as significant actors in the global climate change management strategy. Cities are centers of production and consumption in our society and as such will be crucial for global climate change management strategy. Despite these links, demands for consideration of climate change management issues in local policy making have remained a research rhetoric and have not yet translated into planning action. This gap between planning research and practice is probably due to lack of evidence based research on this issue. This study fills in this gap and provides empirical evidence supporting the key role of local development plans in climate change management. Specifically, in the first step, this research investigates the influence of local development plans on climate change mitigation by comparing change in carbon dioxide emissions in groups of cities with and without plans. Thereafter, climate change management capacity in local development plans is analyzed through policy analysis. Finally, this research study examines the effect of plan quality on the change in carbon dioxide emissions, while controlling for socio-economic, landscape and policy characteristics. Results of this study support the demands for using local development plans as tools for climate change management. This study identifies numerous planning policies in local development plans with potential to influence climate change management. The analysis also reveals wide variation in the quality of the climate change management policies. For example, policies related to site planning regulations and transportation are fairly detailed, whereas acquisition and incentive/disincentive tools are not. The detailed review of plan quality suggests that although development plans have the potential to significantly influence climate change, there is need for further improvement, especially of the overall plan implementation capacity. Finally, the research findings show that the quality of climate change management planning policies in local development plans have a significant impact on a communities’ emissions. Communities with better plan quality had significantly lower increase in per-capita emissions over the period of analysis. The study also discovered significant effects of wealth, travel behavior, occupation base and state policy on the change in emissions. Based on the research findings this study recommends evolving integrated local development policies that focus on dual goals of climate change management and sustainable development. Further studies are recommended to examine the opportunities and challenges to use of local development plans for climate change management.

This dissertation is composed of three essays, investigating two aspects of the role of agricultural sector in climate change mitigation: leakage and additionality. Leakage happens when mitigation policies reduce net GHG emissions in one context, but increase (decrease) prices, which in turn causes production (demand) expansion resulting in an offsetting rise in emissions elsewhere. The first essay documents an integration of a US domestic agricultural sectoral model and a global agricultural sectoral model, with the aim to deliver better leakage assessment. The second essay investigates the trend of US crop yield growth and its implication on the international leakage effect. We find that the slowdowns have occurred to the growth rates of most US major crops. The implementation of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the expansion of bioenergy production, causes demand for the agricultural sector to increase substantially. The new demand would cause noticeable leakage effect if crop yields continue to grow at the current rates. Such effect may be potentially alleviated by higher crop yield growth rates; but the extent of alleviation depends on the mix of technological progress obtained across crops as well. Additionality is often a concern in programs designed to incentivize the production of environmental services. Additionality is satisfied if payments are made to services that would not have occurred without the payment. However, because of the information asymmetry between service buyers and sellers, ensuring additionality poses a challenge to program designers. The third essay investigates how the pursuit of ensuring additionality would complicate environmental policy design with a theoretical model. Specifically, we examine 4 types of policy design, including 2 discriminating schemes and 2 simpler non-discriminating schemes. We found that under certain conditions, some of the non-discriminating schemes can be almost as good as the discriminating ones. Findings in this dissertation contribute to inform policy makers about the potential impacts of climate change mitigation policies in the agricultural sector and also help to improve understanding of environmental program design.

This dissertation analyzes the basis for and magnitudes of discount factors based on the characteristics of greenhouse gas emission (GHGE) offsets that are applied to the GHGE reduction projects, concentrating on agricultural projects. Theoretical approaches to discount factors, estimation and incorporation of discount factors procedures are developed. Discount factors would be imposed by credit purchasers due to noncompliance with regulatory program of the credits with GHG program including consideration of shortfall penalties and limited durations. Discount factors are proposed for (i) additionality, (ii) leakage, (iii) permanence, and (iv) uncertainty. Additionality arise when the region where an AO project is being proposed would have substantial adoption of the AO practice in the absence of GHG programs (business as usual GHGE offset). Leakage arises when the effect of a program is offset by an induced increase in economic activity and accompanying emissions elsewhere. The leakage effect depends on demand and supply elasticities. Permanence reflects the saturation and volatility characteristics of carbon sequestration. Carbon is stored in a volatile form and can be released quickly to the atmosphere when an AO practice is discontinued. The permanence discount depends on the project design including practice continuation after the program and the dynamic rate of offset. Also, consideration of multiple offsets is important. Uncertainty arises due to the stochastic nature of project quantity. The uncertainty discount tends to be smaller the larger the size of the offset contract due to aggregation over space and time. The magnitude of these discounts is investigated in Southeast Texas rice discontinuation study. The additionality and the leakage discounts are found to play an important role in case of rice lands conversion to other crops but less so for pasture conversions and yet less for forest conversions. The permanence discount is important when converting to other crops and short rotation forestry. When all discounts are considered, rice lands conversion to forest yields claimable credits amounting to 52.8% ~ 77.5% of the total offset. When converting rice lands to pasture, the claimable credits 45.1% ~ 64.2%, while a conversion of rice lands to other crops yields claimable credits 38.9% ~ 40.4%.