This study tests whether contagion effects existed during the ¡§subprime mortgage crisis¡¨ among the equity markets of the US, the EU, Asia and emerging markets. The time-varying correlation coefficients are estimated by the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) of Engle (2002), using a multivariate GJR-GARCH with AR (1) model. The empirical findings show that the conditional correlation coefficients of stock returns between the U.S. and others countries were positive and that the contagion effect exists among stock markets. Financial markets displayed contagion effects, in that the global equity markets were confronted with elevated systematic risk at the same time. Therefore, this study further examines the role of systematic risk in the equity market of each country. I used the rolling formulae, the MV-DGP, and DCC-GARCH (1, 1) models to estimate the CAPM beta and downside betas. This study found higher systematic risk (downside systematic risk) in the stock markets of the United States, Germany, France and Brazil, which had beta values nearly above one, while the Chinese stock market had the lowest systemic risk and served as a hedge for investors and fund managers. Finally, the results demonstrate that DCC-HW beta can capture some downside linkages between the market portfolios and expected stock returns, while these linkages cannot likely be captured by the CAPM beta.

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O principal objetivo da Medida Provisória (MP) nº 579/2012 foi viabilizar a redução tarifária aos consumidores de energia elétrica no Brasil. Entretanto, a medida trouxe outras consequências ao setor elétrico, entre elas incertezas quanto às regras para renovações de concessões existentes. No presente trabalho, verificou-se o impacto da MP no risco sistêmico do setor elétrico e, também, no risco sistêmico dos demais setores regulados da economia brasileira, mas não afetados diretamente com a medida. Analisou-se o risco sistêmico por meio do beta recursivo desalavancado, considerando-se uma base de 140 empresas listadas na B3 entre janeiro de 2008 a setembro de 2016. A partir da metodologia de controle sintético, criaram-se grupos de controle de modo a captar isoladamente o feito da MP sobre o risco sistêmico das empresas do setor elétrico e demais setores regulados. Os resultados mostram um aumento do risco sistêmico dos setores regulados no Brasil após a publicação da MP 579/2012, sugerindo um efeito contágio do ambiente regulatório do país. Ainda, estima-se que o aumento do risco sistêmico tenha custado mais de R$ 14 bilhões aos consumidores/contribuintes brasileiros, lançando dúvidas sobre o real efeito da MP. / The main objective of the Act (PM) n.o 579/2012 was to enable fees reduction to electric power consumers in Brazil. However, it has brought other consequences to the electric power sector, including uncertainties about the rules for renewals of existing concessions. The present work verifies the impact of the PM on the systemic risk of the electric sector and on the systemic risk of the other regulated sectors of the Brazilian economy, but not directly affected with that measure. The analysis of systemic risk uses unleveraged recursive betas, considering a set of 140 companies listed on the B3 between January 2008 and September 2016. Based on the synthetic control methodology, I have created control groups in order to capture the PM effect on the systemic risk of companies in the electricity power sector and other regulated sectors. The results show an increase in the systemic risk of regulated sectors in Brazil after publication of MP 579/2012, suggesting a possible contagion effect of the country\'s regulatory environment. Moreover, I have estimated that the increase in systemic risk may have cost Brazilian consumers/taxpayers more than R $ 14 billion, casting doubt on the real effect of the PM.

Credit Default Swaps have become a large part of financial markets and recently the center of debate between academics and regulators alike. Transferring the techniques to measure information flow between the CDS market and stock markets presented by Acharya and Johnson (2007), this paper looks at the relationship between a countries sovereign CDS spread level and its predominate stock exchange. Under the back drop of the Greek Credit Crisis in Spring of 2010 I measure contagion effects in the Euro Zone comparing the level of Granger causality significance between the stock and CDS market. I find that the greatest information flow from the CDS market to the stock market is during credit shocks or times of high credit distress. My results also point to the significance of the contagion effect in the CDS market but not in the stock market.

This study measures the short-term and long-term contagion effects in U.S. stock markets and REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) markets during the periods of subprime mortgage and financial crises. First, we test contagion between the U.S. stock market and the U.S. REITs market. Then, we test the contagion effects between the U.S. REITs market and eighteen international REITs markets, selected from North America, Oceania, Asian and Europe. To catch the asymmetric effect in the volatility structure of index returns and consider the time-varying data, this study employs asymmetric dynamic Copula models that measure contagion effects. The test result in this study shows that the contagion effect exists because of the fact that during the subprime mortgage crisis, the correlation between the U.S. stock market and REITs market significantly increased. Thus, the two markets lost ground together. While managing not to emerge in Asian REITs markets, the contagion then spread from the U.S. REITs market to Canada, Australia and most of the European REITs markets. In the later financial crisis period, however, the number of European REITs markets impacted by contagion from the U.S. REITs market decreased. Except for Singapore, contagion is absent from the Asian REITs markets. Contagion is more obvious in the short term than in the long term. These results imply that the Asian REITs markets are not easily affected by the U.S. REITs market, which in turn implies that investors could obtain the positive effects of international diversification by investing in this portfolio. In addition, investors should reduce the proportion of their investments placed in REITs markets, as well as focus on a long-term diversification strategy.

O principal objetivo da Medida Provisória (MP) nº 579/2012 foi viabilizar a redução tarifária aos consumidores de energia elétrica no Brasil. Entretanto, a medida trouxe outras consequências ao setor elétrico, entre elas incertezas quanto às regras para renovações de concessões existentes. No presente trabalho, verificou-se o impacto da MP no risco sistêmico do setor elétrico e, também, no risco sistêmico dos demais setores regulados da economia brasileira, mas não afetados diretamente com a medida. Analisou-se o risco sistêmico por meio do beta recursivo desalavancado, considerando-se uma base de 140 empresas listadas na B3 entre janeiro de 2008 a setembro de 2016. A partir da metodologia de controle sintético, criaram-se grupos de controle de modo a captar isoladamente o feito da MP sobre o risco sistêmico das empresas do setor elétrico e demais setores regulados. Os resultados mostram um aumento do risco sistêmico dos setores regulados no Brasil após a publicação da MP 579/2012, sugerindo um efeito contágio do ambiente regulatório do país. Ainda, estima-se que o aumento do risco sistêmico tenha custado mais de R$ 14 bilhões aos consumidores/contribuintes brasileiros, lançando dúvidas sobre o real efeito da MP. / The main objective of the Act (PM) n.o 579/2012 was to enable fees reduction to electric power consumers in Brazil. However, it has brought other consequences to the electric power sector, including uncertainties about the rules for renewals of existing concessions. The present work verifies the impact of the PM on the systemic risk of the electric sector and on the systemic risk of the other regulated sectors of the Brazilian economy, but not directly affected with that measure. The analysis of systemic risk uses unleveraged recursive betas, considering a set of 140 companies listed on the B3 between January 2008 and September 2016. Based on the synthetic control methodology, I have created control groups in order to capture the PM effect on the systemic risk of companies in the electricity power sector and other regulated sectors. The results show an increase in the systemic risk of regulated sectors in Brazil after publication of MP 579/2012, suggesting a possible contagion effect of the country\'s regulatory environment. Moreover, I have estimated that the increase in systemic risk may have cost Brazilian consumers/taxpayers more than R $ 14 billion, casting doubt on the real effect of the PM.

This thesis explores three important issues in financial distress and corporate bankruptcy: bankruptcy venue choice and creditor recovery, the efficiency of Chapter 11 corporate bankruptcy and distressed exchanges, and the bankruptcy ripple effect on peer firms’ investment policy. / Dissertation / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) / This thesis explores three important issues in financial distress and corporate bankruptcy: bankruptcy venue choice and creditor recovery, the efficiency of Chapter 11 corporate bankruptcy and distressed exchanges, and the bankruptcy ripple effect on peer firms’ investment policy.

Thesis advisor: Robert Ross / Military balance of power and geographical proximity are two key factors that shape thelikelihood of war and peace in the realist paradigm. However, the empirical cases associated with the leading sea power and a naval challenger sometimes are not congruent to systemic anticipations of both the balance of power theory and hegemonic shift theories. Why do the leading sea power and a challenger fight a war despite naval power disparity and geographical distance? Conversely, how do these powers arrive at a strategic settlement even with naval power parity and geographical proximity? More practically, under what conditions are the U.S. and China more likely to avoid or end up in a war as China’s naval overtake looms large in the Asia-Pacific? To address these questions, I construct a mid-range theory, An Interactive Theory of Power Projection, that incorporates the geographical dimension of power projection in determining the outcome of naval power shifts. Specifically, I conduct comparative historical case studies of the two Anglo-French dyads (1856-1870/1882-1904) and the U.S.-Japan dyad (1921-1941) with a goal of developing a theory to apply to U.S.-China relations. At root, I argue that the outcome of a naval power transition is contingent upon two conditions: (1) the interactive dynamics of a challenger’s expansion and the leading sea power’s expectation about its contagion effect on the first line of maritime defense; and (2) whether alignment opportunity, shaped by third common threats and available allies in the theaters of the power transition, is open or closed. The contagion effect refers to three kinds of possibilities in the event of a challenger’s occupation: (1) an occupation will become a stepping stone on which a challenger further expands into the adjacent first line of maritime defense; (2) an occupation will produce a negative second-order effect on the other, possibly distant, first line of maritime defense; (3) an occupation will undermine or remove local allies on the first line of maritime defense. I argue that while bilateral resource-extraction capacities initiate or end a naval arms race, it is the interactive dynamics of geographical power projection as well as alignment opportunity in the theater of the naval challenge that bring a conflict to the fore and determine its outcome. These findings carry policy implications for U.S.-China relations and U.S. foreign policy. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2024. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Political Science.

The study aims to detect the influence of the initial cross-listing of Taiwanese enterprises on the variety of the stock price of the listing company and its rival firms. However, the limitations from the Taiwanese authorities on the local company¡¦s direct listing in the oversea market are not a few. Accordingly, I employ GDR instead of direct international listing to delve the phenomenon of information content and intra-industry transfer derived from a company¡¦s initial GDR offering. Recent studies focusing on the same issue rarely inspect the situation of Taiwanese industries. Thus, the research intends to excavate the effect and the aftermath of a Taiwanese firm¡¦s initial GDR offering on its local market price as well as on the one of its rival company that concurrently does not have GDR offering. To delineate the complication of the issue, the study develop three trajectories mainly based on various approaches, including reference review, event study method, and multi-regression analysis. The first aspect attends to the research result of event study method and multi-regression analysis that exposes the stock price of the GDR offering company has abnormally positive rise accompanying with the announcement of its GDR offerings, particularly in the period before the announcement. That reflects the investors regard the GDR offering as a positive news for a company while the situation turns out to be the opposite for the rival firms. The research also finds that industry differences might dominate the consequence of the GDR offering. Hence, the exemplary simples are divided into the ¡§hi-tech¡¨ industry group and the ¡§non hi-tech¡¨ industry group. Based on the reference review of Melvin and Valero-Tonone¡]2005¡^ and the outcome of the multi-regression analysis, the influence of GDR offering on both industry group will be carefully scrutinized. In addition, the study places another attention on the discussion of intra-industry transferring and the contagion effect of the GDR offering on the offering company and its rival firm. Although Taiwanese enterprises offer GDR mainly in four main trade locations from London, Luxembourg, New York, and NASDAQ, the study exposes that the trade location has less influence on a company¡¦s and its rival firm¡¦s SCAR variation. That implies that Taiwanese investors might recognize the fact of a company¡¦s GDR offering in the oversea market, whereas, they seldom be aware of the trivial differentiation of the disparate trade location. In conclusion, the GDR offering of Taiwanese enterprises indeed encompasses information content that might motivate the alteration of the stock price in Taiwan stock market. Besides, the action of GDR offering supplies intra-industry information transferring effect. Even though the strategy of offering GDR of a Taiwanese company does not rely on consulting the action of its rival firms, in reality and according to the application of game theory, the implementing efficiency of a company¡¦s strategies might probably be impinged by its opponents¡¦ behavior. In other words, while a company offers GDR, its rival firms should propose expedients to reduce the damage that might be caused by the issue information.

The impact of own-country and cross-border events on asset markets is an important subject. We examine the co-movement of conditional volatilities in Korean won, Chinese yuan and Taiwanese dollar NDF markets. Using a multivariate GARCH model, we test whether the announcement of Chinese yuan’s appreciation on 21st July, 2005 affects the co-movements of Asian NDF rates. Our findings show Japanese yen spot rate has influences on three Asian NDF markets. Furthermore the most liquid Korean NDF rate also affects Chinese yuan and Taiwanese NDF markets. Our results are consistent with the findings that Asian NDF markets also show strong co-movements, especially after the announcement date of Chinese yuan’s appreciation on 21st July, 2005.