In the Highway construction project development process, State Highway Agencies (SHA) prepare cost estimates for effective communication to stakeholders and for project cost control. Cost estimates prepared in the planning phase of project development typically in a time range of 10 to 20 years from project letting are characterized by a great deal of uncertainty due to low scope definition. SHAs typically include an amount as contingency in the project cost estimate to cover costs due to unidentified or unquantified risks during project development. However, most of the methods used by SHAs to apply contingency to projects lack consistency in definition and application. This leads to poor communication to stakeholders, project cost escalation and other project control issues due to inaccuracy of baseline cost estimates. This study developed a set of sliding scale contingencies for estimating contingency on highway projects taking into consideration the effect of major factors, such as project complexity that impacts contingency application. Expert opinion was sought through the use of the Delphi technique. Experimental techniques were not suitable for this study due to the exploratory nature of the problem and the lack of data to analyze using empirical methods. The Delphi method typically consists of a series of rounds called questionnaires. Twenty-three professionals with experience in risk assessment and cost estimating agreed to participate in the study. Email was the means of communication using an excel spreadsheet. The assessment was completed in three iterative rounds with controlled feedback to the participants on the panel at the end of each round. Sliding scale contingencies were developed for three levels of project complexity: noncomplex (minor), moderately complex, and most complex (major) projects. The sliding scale contingencies are presented as a final output of this study. This method of estimating contingency provides consistent rationale for estimating contingency. Risks are an inextricable part of the contingency estimating process. Estimators are encouraged to identify and document risks as justification for contingency values applied to a project.

The paper explores theoretical shortcomings in the egalitarian theory by John Rawls and provides a complementary view on the problem of morally arbitrary contingencies. The conception of natural lottery, which Rawls presents to signify the starting range of morally arbitrary inequalities, falls short in philosophical grounding. According to critics, the notion of natural lottery appeals to the philosophical conception of moral luck which undermines ascription of moral responsibility. Since moral responsibility is a basic prerequisite for egalitarian justice, the appeal to morally arbitrary contingencies of the natural lottery may be self-defeating for the theory. Criticizing Rawls’s approach to morally arbitrary contingencies Susan Hurley investigates philosophical groundings for judgment of moral responsibility. Philosophical inquiries into moral luck differentiate four categories of luck and expose the difficulties of ascription of moral responsibility for it. The conception of moral luck implies epistemological shortcomings in the rational judgment of moral responsibility. Hurley claims that ascription of moral responsibility requires another logical strategy. The critical discussion by Norman Daniels refers to another egalitarian theory by Ronald Dworkin which suggests ascription of moral responsibility on a gradual scale. The theory divides the naturally contingent recourses into categories of brute luck and option luck. This strategy stratifies normative standards of responsibility by the criteria of individual choice and circumstances. Considering the strategy of gradual ascription of responsibility, I suggest to apply a moral developmental perspective as an additional outlook on the moral responsibility in egalitarian theory. The theory of moral development by Lawrence Kohlberg provides an explanation of a gradual development of moral responsibility through a natural order of developmental stages. It stratifies the moral responsibility into a hierarchical model of measurement and systematizes the order of normative standards.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:31:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2008-12-04Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T20:22:51Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 elfakhouri_s_dr_mar.pdf: 9930814 bytes, checksum: c5c603589d0c58a9afcb725612fb5352 (MD5) / Este trabalho avalia e compara os alunos do sexto ano de medicina da Faculdade de Medicina de Marília em relação ao estágio de terapia intensiva. Para execução do trabalho, os alunos foram divididos em dois grupos, controle e experimental, e a análise dos ganhos em relação ao estágio foram feitas intra e intergrupos. Os objetivos deste trabalho são avaliar e comparar os ganhos teóricos e práticos de cada grupo antes e após o estágio de terapia intensiva, e comparar os dois grupos entre si após a inserção de treinamento em atividades práticas programadas e inseridas no grupo experimental. Usou-se um questionário fechado, aplicado aos alunos antes e apos o estágio de terapia intensiva, em ambos os grupos, para avaliar os ganhos teóricos e práticos em relação ao estágio. No grupo experimental foram inseridas atividades práticas para treinamento dessas habilidades durante o estágio de UTI. Essas atividades práticas foram escolhidas de acordo com a literatura que apontava as necessidades de formação prática para os graduandos em medicina, elaboradas e aplicadas com base no rearranjo de contingências, de acordo com a análise do comportamento, que foi o método didático usado. O treinamento dos alunos foi realizado pela pesquisadora docente especialista na área de terapia intensiva, que supervisionou o trabalho diretamente. A análise estatística recebeu tratamento especial para cada comparação e cada grupo de questões. Os dados foram descritos utilizando-se medidas de freqüência absoluta (n) quando a comparação era feita no mesmo grupo entre fases (Pré x Pós- estágio – intra-grupo) utilizando o teste de Wilcoxon para escala ordinal e o teste de McNemar quando escala nominal, e utilizou medidas relativas (%) quando a comparação foi feita entre grupos independentes (Controle x Experimental – intergrupos) usando o teste de Mann-Whitney para... / This study evaluates and compares the students of the sixth year of medicine, School of Marília Medicine, in relation to the stage of intensive care. To undertake the work, students were divides into two groups, control and experimental, and analysis of earnings in relation to the stage were made within and intergroup. The objectives of this study are assessed and compared the theoretical and practical gains of each group before and after the stage of intensive care, and compare the two groups among themselves, after the insertion of training in practical activities planned and included in the experimental group. The study was divided into two phases, first with the control group and the second phase with the experimental group. A closed questionnaire was applied to students before and after the stage of intensive care, in both groups, to assess the theoretical and practical gains on the stage. In the experimental group were included practical activities for training of these skills during the stage of ICU. These practical activities were chosen according to literature that emphasized the need for practical training for graduate students in medicine, developed and implemented based on the rearrangement of contingencies, according to the analysis of behavior, which was the teaching method used. The training of students was conducted by the researcher teacher expert in the field of intensive care, which oversaw the work directly. Statistical analysis has received special treatment compared to each and every group of issues. The data were described using the measures of absolute frequency (n) when the comparison was made between the same group stages (Pre x Post-stage - intra-group) using the Wilcoxon test for ordinal scale and McNemar test when nominal scale was used, and used measures on percent (%) when the comparison was made between independent groups... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:29:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2009-02-19Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:17:04Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 jensen_ca_me_bauru.pdf: 397940 bytes, checksum: fd41a9eb137e5b6358737c6af4b30d5b (MD5) / No âmbito da Análise do Comportamento, instruções são definidas como estímulos verbais que descrevem, de modo completo ou fragmentado, relações de contingência em contextos específicos, sendo que as consequencias explicitadas ou implicadas poderiam ter modelado os mesmos repertórios descritos na ausência da instrução. A identificação de relações funcionais entre instruções e desempenhos operantes constitui-se em relevante objeto de investigação para a Análise do Comportamento. Este estudo procurou ampliar o alcance de tal objeto concentrando ênfase em caracterizar o comportamento do treinador de fornecer instruções de três jogos consecutivos da fase classificatória de um torneio de futebol júnior. Participaram a comissão técnica e 25 atletas. As verbalizações foram gravadas em vídeo na sala de preleções do hotel na qual a delegação esteve hospedada, bem como no campo de treinamento. O procedimento consistiu em duas etapas. Na Etapa 1 ocorreu um período de ambientação da pesquisadora com a equipe durante as atividades de preparação para a competição. Inicialmente sem a filmadora e posteriormente com a mesma, a pesquisadora observou e gravou preleções ministradas em situações de treinamentos de campo. A Etapa 2 consistiu na gravação em vídeo de três ocorrências consecutivas de três fases: Fase 1) preleção efetuada antes do último treino de campo que precedeu o jogo; Fase 2) preleção realizada antes do jogo no dia em que este foi realizado; Fase 3) preleção efetuada no primeiro treino após o jogo. Todos os registros em vídeo foram transcritos. Foram adotados três critérios para a classificação das instruções emitidas pelo treinador: audiência, topografia e características relacionais, definidas pelos elementos de contingências presentes no enunciado da instrução. A caracterização dos relatos foi efetuada simultaneamente... / In Behavior Analysis, instructions are verbal stimuli that make entire or breaking up description about contingencies relations in situational constraints. The explicit or implied consequences in contingencies could shaped the same repertoires described in the instruction fault. The identification of functional relations among instructions and operant behaviors corresponds to relevant object of investigation to the Behavior Analysis. This study aimed to broaden the extent of such object by emphasizing the sporting coach's behavior when giving instructions in the routine of three consecutive games in the classificatory phase of a junior soccer tourney. The technical committee and twenty five athletes have participated on this project. The verbalizations were recorded on video on the conference room of the hotel, where the delegation had been accommodated, as well as in the training field. The procedure consisted of two stages. In the first stage, an involvement period was carried out among the researcher and the team during the preparation for the compettion. Initially, without the camera and after that with it, the researcher observed and recorded previous instructions ministered in training situations in the field. The second stage consisted in the video recording of the three consecutive events of three phases: Phase 1) previous instructions which happened before the last training field that preceded the game; Phase 2) previous instructions that happened before the game, on the day it was accomplished; Phase 3) previous instructions that happened on the first training after the game. All the video records were transcribed. Three criteria were adopted to classify the instructions that were given by the coach: audience, topography and relational characteristics, defining as contingencies elements related by instructions. The characterizations of the instructions were simultaneously... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)

[pt] O uso de compensação de potência reativa, embora permita um carregamento mais elevado do sistema elétrico, leva-o a operar próximo de situações de colapso de tensão. Portanto, tornou-se necessário analisar o comportamento do sistema quanto a esse fenômeno na ocorrência de contingências. Neste trabalho alguns métodos existentes são estudados para verificar a capacidade de classificação das contingências que possam afetar o sistema, e como esses métodos procedem para ordená-las por severidade e selecionar aquelas mais prejudiciais. Os métodos são estudados tendo como foco principal a operação em tempo real. Este trabalho propõe um método capaz de ordenar e selecionar uma lista de contingências prováveis, com base em índices nodais de avaliação das condições de segurança de tensão. Esses índices são baseados na margem em MVA para o máximo carregamento, indicam a região de operação na curva V x P, Q e a importância relativa entre barras. O Índice de Sensitividade, que indica a redução da margem de potência diante de uma contingência, é estudado minuciosamente. Além da análise nodal, também é proposta uma forma de análise sistêmica, capaz de ordenar e selecionar as contingências de acordo com as influências sobre todo o sistema elétrico. São apresentados resultados numéricos correspondentes ao sistema Brasileiro Interligado Norte-Nordeste, com carga máxima de junho de 1992. A análise da eficiência computacional do método proposto demonstrou ser possível sua utilização na operação em tempo real integrado à ferramenta de avaliação da segurança de tensão, através de uma estrutura de dados comum aos dois processos. / [en] Although the use of compensation of reactive power allows a higher loading in the electric system, it leads it to work closer to voltage collapse situations. Therefore it`s necessary to assess the behavior of the system regarding to this phenomena in the occurrence of the contingencies. In this work some existing methods are studied to check the capacity of ranking the contingencies that might affect the system, and how these methods rank them by severity and select those which are more damaging. The methods are studied having as the main focus the real-time operation. This work proposes a method which is able to rank and select a list of probable contingencies, having as a basis, nodal indexes of voltage security conditions assessment. These indexes are based on MVA margin to the maximum loading, indicate the region of operation on V x P,Q curve, and the relative importance among buses. The sensitivity index which indicates the reduction of the power margin before a contingency, is studied in detail. Besides the nodal analysis, it is proposed a form of a systemic analysis which is able to rank and select the contingencies according to their influence upon all electrical system. Numerical results corresponding to the North-Northeast Brazilian Interconected power system, with maximum load of June 1992 are presented. The analysis of computational efficiency of the proposed method showed that it`s possible to be used in real-time operation connected to the voltage assessment security tool, through a common structure of data to both procedures.

Com a popularidade e o crescimento das Redes Sociais Online, o interesse pelo entendimento de como seus usuários interagem entre si também tem crescido, configurando assim um cenário rico no qual são criadas oportunidades para melhorar o design de interfaces, compreender a organização de movimentos sociais, o marketing viral e a distribuição de conteúdos multimídia, dentre outros. Na investigação dessas oportunidades de pesquisa, um modelo de representação da atividade dos usuários amplamente empregado é baseado na construção de um grafo. Embora as atividades dos usuários em uma Rede Social Online sejam variadas, assim como as possibilidades de interação entre usuários, a construção de um grafo normalmente considera uma interação específica, que é então analisada a partir da interpretação de medidas baseadas em grafos ou de medidas estatísticas. Técnicas de mineração de dados podem ser empregadas de forma alternativa e complementar ao modelo baseado em grafos, possibilitando a extração e a avaliação de padrões das atividades de usuários. Entretanto, tanto na análise baseada em grafos quanto na utilização de técnicas de mineração de dados, a literatura reporta trabalhos em que são implicitamente representados elementos associados com a atividade dos usuários como ações executadas, mídias compartilhadas, aplicações e tipos de dispositivos utilizados. Nesse cenário, existe uma demanda por um modelo descritivo que permita a representação explícita dos elementos associados com as atividades dos usuários representação essa que possa ser utilizada na extração e na avaliação das interações entre usuários. Para atender essa demanda, nesta tese é apresentada uma técnica e um método para representar, extrair e avaliar interações entre usuários de Redes Sociais Online. São também reportados resultados de experimentos da aplicação da técnica e do método a partir de dados obtidos de uma Rede Social Online / The interest in understanding user interactions is increasing with the popularity of Online Social Networks. This scenario leads to rich opportunities to improve the design of interfaces, to understand the organization of social movements, to model the dynamics of viral marketing and to characterize the distribution of multimedia content, among others. In the investigation of these research opportunities, a widely used representation of users activities is based on graphs as underlying data models. Graph data models usually consider a specific interaction, which is analyzed based on the interpretation of statistical measures and graph-based measures. On the other hand, user activities and possibilities of interaction in social networks are multifaceted, so that singleinteraction graph-based approaches might prove to be unfeasible to properly model the problem. In order to deal with these limitations, data mining techniques may be employed as an alternative to graph-based modeling approaches, by enabling extraction and evaluation of users activities as patterns. However, both in the use of the model graph-based as in the use of data mining techniques, the literature reports an implicit representation of elements associated with the users activities such as executed actions, shared media, used applications and devices. In this scenario, there is a demand for a descriptive model which allows explicit representation of the elements associated with users activities - this representation can be used in the extraction and evaluation of interactions among users. To meet this demand, this thesis presents a technique and a method to represent, to extract and to evaluate interactions among users of Online Social Networks. Results of experimentation of applying the technique and method based on data obtained from an Online Social Network are also reported

Observational learning (OL) occurs when an individual contacts reinforcement as a direct result of discriminating the observed consequences of other individuals' responses. Individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) may have deficits in observational learning and previous research has demonstrated that teaching a series of prerequisite skills (i.e., attending, imitation, delayed imitation, and consequence discrimination) can result in observational learning. We sequentially taught these prerequisite skills for three young children with ASD across three play-based tasks. We assessed the direct and indirect effects of training by assessing OL before and after instruction across tasks and task variations (for two participants) during both in-vivo and video-model probes using a concurrent multiple-probe design. All participants acquired the prerequisite skills and demonstrated observational learning during probes of directly-trained tasks. Generalization results varied across participants. Observational learning generalized to one untrained task for one participant. For the other two participants, observational learning generalized to variations of the trained tasks but not to untrained tasks. Generalization additionally occurred during the in-vivo probes for both participants for whom we assessed this response. Implications of these findings, as well as directions for future research, are discussed.

Incorporating gender into disasters and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) is important given women’s and men’s different needs, vulnerabilities, capacities and roles in the context of disasters. Male engagement or ‘men-streaming’ has gained increased attention in research on gender and development, yet it has been overlooked in the field of DRR. This thesis aims to transfer the discussion on male engagement from development to disasters by studying how ‘men-streaming’ is described in the context of DRR. The analysis will build upon a case-study of the Gender Equality Toolkit by The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB). A qualitative content analysis will be the main method for the thesis. The Toolkit will be analyzed using an open analytical framework, consisting of three themes: Men as Vulnerable, Men as Capable and Men as Allies. The results illustrate that all three themes of male engagement are described in gender policy for DRR, with a main focus on men’s vulnerabilities. The contribution of this thesis is the recognition that while men are increasingly seen as vulnerable rather than obstacles in the context of DRR, men’s capacities and allyship to women are not fully included in gender policy.

The budgeting debate concerns that traditional budgets have become dysfunctional in today’s volatile business environment. Thus, it can seem logical that organisations would implement alternatives, and beyond budgeting has become popular. Nevertheless, knowledge of beyond budgeting’s practical implications is limited, and future research needs to study organisations that have implemented beyond budgeting. This study, therefore, investigates beyond budgeting in practice through a qualitative multiple case study with eight semi-structured interviews, whose respondents come from four retail organisations. The study intends to research reasons for choosing beyond budgeting, how the beyond budgeting solution is designed and what consequences beyond budgeting implies. The study finds that organisations choose to implement beyond budgeting for several reasons, some similar, such as budgets being time-consuming and aiming for higher adaptability, and some more organisation specific. The study also finds that the beyond budgeting solutions differ, for example, the companies’ management processes are designed differently. However, no organisation intentionally implemented all beyond budgeting principles, and all have a high focus on the management processes. Further, the study finds that the company's consequences implies some similarities and differences. For example, higher adaptability was a consistent outcome. Moreover, the study shows that all companies experienced consequences that were unanticipated. Lastly, the study implies that an organisation’s contingencies affects reasons, beyond budgeting solution and outcomes as beyond budgeting should be adjusted to its situation.

This dissertation studies decision theories for both individual and interactive choice problems. This thesis proposes three non-standard models that modify assumptions and settings of standard models. Chapter 1 provides an overview of this dissertation. In the second chapter I present a model of decision-making under uncertainty in which an agent is constrained in her cognitive ability to consider complex acts. The complexity of an act is identified by the corresponding partition of state space. The agent ranks acts according to the expected utility net of complexity cost. I introduce a new axiom called Aversion to Complexity, that depicts an agent's aversion to complex acts. This axiom, together with other modified classical expected utility axioms characterizes a Complexity Aversion Representation. In addition, I present applications to competitive markets with uncertainty and optimal contract design. The third Chapter discusses how a complexity averse agent measures the complexity cost of an act after she receives new information. I propose an updating rule for the complexity cost function called Minimal Complexity Updating. The idea is that if the agent is told that the true state must belong to a particular event, she needs not consider the complexity of an act outside of this event. The main result characterizes axiomatically the Minimal Complexity Aversion Representation. Lastly, I apply the idea of Minimal Complexity Updating to the theory of rational inattention. The last chapter deals with a variant model of fictitious play, in which each player has a perturbation term that measures to what extent his rival will stick to the rules of traditional fictitious play. I find that the empirical distribution can converge to a pure Nash equilibrium if the perturbation term is bounded. Furthermore, I introduce an updating rule for the perturbation term. I prove that if the perturbation term is updated in accordance with this rule, then play can converge to a pure Nash equilibrium. / Doctor of Philosophy / This dissertation studies decision theories for both individual and interactive choice problems. This thesis proposes three non-standard models that modify assumptions and settings of standard models. Chapter 1 provides an overview of this dissertation. In the second chapter I present a model of decision-making under uncertainty in which an agent is constrained in her cognitive ability to consider complex acts. The complexity of an act is identified by the corresponding partition of state space. The agent ranks acts according to the expected utility net of complexity cost. I introduce a new axiom called Aversion to Complexity, that depicts an agent's aversion to complex acts. This axiom, together with other modified classical expected utility axioms characterizes a Complexity Aversion Representation. In addition, I present applications to competitive markets with uncertainty and optimal contract design. The third Chapter discusses how a complexity averse agent measures the complexity cost of an act after she receives new information. I propose an updating rule for the complexity cost function called Minimal Complexity Updating. The idea is that if the agent is told that the true state must belong to a particular event, she needs not consider the complexity of an act outside of this event. The main result characterizes axiomatically the Minimal Complexity Aversion Representation. Lastly, I apply the idea of Minimal Complexity Updating to the theory of rational inattention. The last chapter deals with a variant model of fictitious play, in which each player has a perturbation term that measures to what extent his rival will stick to the rules of traditional fictitious play. I find that the empirical distribution can converge to a pure Nash equilibrium if the perturbation term is bounded. Furthermore, I introduce an updating rule for the perturbation term. I prove that if the perturbation term is updated in accordance with this rule, then play can converge to a pure Nash equilibrium.