A global transformation is being fueled by unprecedented growth in the quality, quantity, and number of different parameters in environmental data through the convergence of several technological advances in data collection and modeling. Although these data hold great potential for helping us understand many complex and, in some cases, life-threatening environmental processes, our ability to generate such data is far outpacing our ability to analyze it. In particular, conventional environmental data analysis tools are inadequate for coping with the size and complexity of these data. As a result, users are forced to reduce the problem in order to adapt to the capabilities of the tools. To overcome these limitations, we must complement the power of computational methods with human knowledge, flexible thinking, imagination, and our capacity for insight by developing visual analysis tools that distill information into the actionable criteria needed for enhanced decision support. In light of said challenges, we have integrated automated statistical analysis capabilities with a highly interactive, multivariate visualization interface to produce a promising approach for visual environmental data analysis. By combining advanced interaction techniques such as dynamic axis scaling, conjunctive parallel coordinates, statistical indicators, and aerial perspective shading, we provide an enhanced variant of the classical parallel coordinates plot. Furthermore, the system facilitates statistical processes such as stepwise linear regression and correlation analysis to assist in the identification and quantification of the most significant predictors for a particular dependent variable. These capabilities are combined into a unique geovisual analytics system that is demonstrated via a pedagogical case study and three North Atlantic tropical cyclone climate studies using a systematic workflow. In addition to revealing several significant associations between environmental observations and tropical cyclone activity, this research corroborates the notion that enhanced parallel coordinates coupled with statistical analysis can be used for more effective knowledge discovery and confirmation in complex, real-world data sets.

<p dir="ltr">Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are intense low-pressure weather systems that acts as a meteorological monster causing severe rainfall and widespread freshwater flooding, leading to extensive damage and disruption. Quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) are crucial for accurately understanding and evaluating the impacts of TCs. However, QPEs derived from various modalities, such as rain gauges, ground-based merged radars, and satellites, can differ significantly and require thorough comparison. Understanding the limitations/advantages of using each QPE is essential to simulate a hydrological model especially to estimate extreme events like TCs. The objective of the dissertation is to 1) characterize the tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) using three gridded products, 2) characterize the impact of using different QPEs in estimation of hydrological variables using a hydrology model, and 3) understand the usability of satellite-derived QPEs for eight cases of TC and its impact on the estimate of hydrological variables. The QPEs include near real-time and post-processed satellite data from NASA’s Global Precipitation Mission-Integrated Multi-sensor Retrievals for GPM Rainfall Product (IMERG), merged ground radar observations (Stage IV) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and interpolated gauge observations from the National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program (GCOOP). The study quantifies how differences in rainfall intensity and location, as derived from these gridded precipitation datasets, impact surface hydrology. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the geographic information system (GIS) routing assess the propagation of bias in the daily rainfall rate to total runoff, evapotranspiration, and flooding. The analysis covers eight tropical cyclones, including Hurricane Charley (2004), Hurricane Frances (2004), Hurricane Jeanne (2004), Tropical Storm Fay (2008), Tropical Storm Beryl (2012), Tropical Storm Debby (2012), Hurricane Irma (2017) and Hurricane Michael (2018) focusing on different regions in South-Atlantic Gulf region and land uses. The findings indicate that IMERG underpredicts precipitation at higher quantiles but aligns closely with ground-based and radar-based products at lower quantiles. IMERG reliably estimates total runoff and evapotranspiration in 90% of TC scenarios along the track and in agricultural and forested regions. There is substantial overlap ~ 70% between IMERG and GCOOP/Stage IV for the 90th percentile rainfall spatially for the case of TC Beryl 2012. Despite previous perceptions of underestimation, the study suggests that satellite-derived rainfall products can be valuable in simulating streamflow, particularly in data-scarce regions where ground estimates are lacking. The relative error in estimation is 12% and 22% when using IMERG instead of Stage IV and GCOOP rainfall data. The findings contribute to a broader perspective on usability of IMERG in estimating near real-time hydrological characteristics, paving the way for further research in this area. This analysis demonstrates that IMERG can be a reliable data product for hydrological studies even in the extreme events like landfalling TCs. This will be helpful in improving the preparedness of vulnerable communities and infrastructure against TC-induced flooding in data scare regions.</p>

Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. / On day five of combat operations during Operation IRAQI FREEDOM, advances by coalition forces were nearly halted by a dust storm, initiated by the passage of a synoptically driven cold front. This storm impacted ground and air operations across the entire Area of Responsibility, and delayed an impending ground attack on the Iraqi capital. Military meteorologists were able to assist military planners in mitigating at least some of the effects of this storm. This thesis examines the synoptic conditions leading to the severe dust storm, evaluates the numerical weather prediction model performance in predicting the event, and reviews metrics pertaining to the overall impacts on the Operation IRAQI FREEDOM combined air campaign. In general, the numerical model guidance correctly predicted the location and onset of the dust storms on 25 March, 2003. As a result of this forecast guidance, mission planners were able to front load Air Tasking Orders with extra sorties prior to the onset of the dust storm, and were able to make changes to planned weapons loads, favoring GPS-guided munitions. / Captain, United States Air Force

L'étude de la variabilité des cyclones extra-tropicaux (ETC) est non seulement un sujet d'intérêt pour la communauté scientifique mais aussi d'une grande importance en raison de ses impacts socio-économiques. Toutefois, l'étude continué de la variabilité des ETC et de leurs impacts est encore rare, en particulier a l'échelle de temps du Xeme siècle. Cette thèse vise a étudier la variabilité des trajectoires de tempêtes et de leurs dégâts associés du début du Xxeme siècle a 2010. Pour ce faire, le travail est divisé en deux sections principales, l'une dédiée a la climatologie des ETCs au cours du siècle dernier a partir de données de réanalyse, et la seconde centrée sur le calcul d'indices de pertes et l'évaluation des risques induits par les tempêtes. On s'intéresse en premier lieu a l'étude de la variabilité des ETCs par l'application d'un algorithme de suivi de cyclone, sur la réanalyse de long terme du Centre Européen (ECMWF) ERA-20C. Le nombre annuel d'ETC modérées a intenses fait ressortir trois périodes historiques distinctes. Deux périodes, l'une au début et la seconde à la fin du Xeme siècle (1900-1935 et 1980-2010) ne présentent aucune tendance tandis qu'au milieu du siècle (1930-1980) une tendance significative à l'augmentation apparait. Cette dernière peut toutefois être interrogée en raison de l'inhomogénéité temporelle des réanalyses de long terme. Pour cette raison, un ensemble de paramètres physiques sont analysés en vue d'interpréter physiquement les trois périodes. Durant la période 1930-1980, un refroidissement général de l'atmosphère est observé, en particulier aux hautes latitudes, qui augmente le gradient méridien de température et en conséquence la baroclinicité et la conversion barocline. Par ailleurs, cette augmentation de la fréquence d'ETC est observée spécifiquement sur le Pacifique (Atlantique) au cours de la première (seconde) moitié de la période en lien avec une inversion de l'indice Oscillation Décennale du Pacifique (Oscillation Multidecennale Atlantique). La seconde partie de la thèse s'intéresse à l'analyse des tempête scausant les plus forts dégâts du Xeme siècle. Tout d'abord, on calcule un champ d'indices de dégâts de vents forts pour plus de vingt pays. On développe ensuite une Méthode de Suivi de Tempêtes de Forts Dégâts et les résultats de l'algorithme de suivi sont combinés avec les indices de dégâts de vents forts pour chaque pays. [...] / Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) variability is not only a subject that raises interest among the scientific community, but also extremely important in terms of social-economical impacts. Nevertheless, the study of both the extratropical cyclones variability and windstorms impacts is still scarce, particularly at time-scales that cover the twentieth century. This thesis aims to study, both storms track variability and associated losses from the beginning of the 20th century until 2010. In order to do so, the work was separated in two main parts, one witch focus on ETCs climatology during the last century using reanalysis data and another focused on loss indexes calculations and risk assessment of windstorms. The first part of this PhD concerns the study of ETCs variability after applying a tracking algorithm on the long-term ECMWF reanalysis ERA-20C. The number of ETCs per year shows three distinct periods for the moderate and deep cyclones. Two periods, one at the beginning and another at end of the century (1900-1935 and 1980-2010) for which no significant e trends are observed and a middle-century period between 1935-1980 which presents a significant positive trend. This last trend, however, a deeper analysis on this period should be done due to time-inhomogeneity of long-term reanalysis datasets. For this reason, a set of physical parameters are analysed and a physical interpretation made for each one of the periods. During the middle period, a general cooling of the atmosphere is observed, particularly at high-latitudes, which increases the meridional gradients of temperature and consequently baroclinicity and baroclinic conversion. Besides that, this increase is also observed more specifically in the Pacific (Atlantic) in the first (second) half of this period and linked with a Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) change in signs. On the opposite, the first and third periods are related with warmer polar temperatures that are more intense in the third period but never reach the upper levels of the troposphere. This creates differential changes in baroclinicity. On the one hand, baroclinicity decreases at lower levels and, on the other hand increases at upper levels. The second part of this thesis is focused on the analysis of the most damaging windstorms of the century. First, Loss and Meteorological indexes Pinto et al 2012 are computed for more than twenty countries. Then, a High-Loss Tracking Method is developed and the tracking algorithm trajectories are matched with the LI and MI information for each country. [...]

A la suite des dégâts occasionnés par le cyclone Hyacin~ the, le B.R.G.M. Réunion et l'équipe de géologie appliquée de l'I.R.I.G.M. (Université de Grenoble) ont entrepris l'étude des risques du secteur de Grand lIet. . Cette étude comporte plusieurs parties : La première est une présentation générale du secteur de travail dans le contexte géographique et géologique de l'ile de la Réunion. Les raisons du choix de Grand lIet y sont exposées. En dernier lieu, les résultats d'une analyse statis* tique systématique des directions de ravines sont présenté. La deuxième partie est l'étude géologique détaillée des formations de Grand Ilet. Elle conduit à la définition de l'unité intermédiaire qui est caractérisée par des glissements de grande ampleur. La troisième partie concerne des mouvements de terrains plus superficiels mais qui sont responsables de dégârs importants. On insiste sur le rôle des précipitations cycloniques dans leur évolution. Enfin, la quatrième partie tente de faire un bilan des conditions d'instabilité et permet de proposer un zonage du secteur adapté au contexte volcano-détrique et au climat tropical.

This study deals with the effect of natural disturbance caused by typhoons on the natural dynamic of primary mountain forests of South Korea. Further study subjects are change of typhoon characteristics and influence caused by the global climatic change and evaluation of ecological requirements of woody plants. The study is based on dendrochronological methods.

This study deals with the effect of natural disturbance caused by typhoons on the natural dynamic of primary mountain forests of South Korea. Further study subjects are change of typhoon characteristics and influence caused by the global climatic change and evaluation of ecological requirements of woody plants. The study is based on dendrochronological methods.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:55:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 5587.pdf: 3066852 bytes, checksum: 17d88d3ab913d61bb315842b57ec5a74 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-09-30 / Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos / Cyclones are used to separate suspended particles from gas streams. The analysis of flow inside the cyclone is complex due to the large number of parameters and operating variables that influence the dynamics of the system. Due to its versatility of use and its robustness, results in computational fluid dynamic are an important alternative often used to study the dynamics of flow in the cyclone. In the literature, several works make use of computational fluid dynamics in order to study the pressure drop of cyclones. However, the works about the efficiency of collection are fewer. For the cyclone, computational fluid dynamics allows an accurately simulation of the collection efficiency of particles with diameter greater than 5 µm; but for particles with smaller diameters the simulated results diverge from experimental values. In this work, Stairmand s cyclone was numerically simulated with injected particles with diameters from 1 to 5 µm. The results were verified using available experimental data reported in the literature. The experimental data taken from literature belong to Zhao and Shen Kang (2004) and Zhao (2005). The simulation mesh was analyzed before and after the simulations. The turbulence models used in the simulation of flow in the cyclone were: Reynolds Stress Model (RSM) and Large Eddy Simulation (LES). The dispersed phase was simulated considering one and two way couplings. The equation of motion of the particles was integrated using the integration schemes: implicit, analytic, trapezoidal, and Runge-Kutta. The results showed that the methodology was adequate to reproduce the behavior of the flow in the cyclone. The error percentages obtained in pressure drop were under 5% and the average collection efficiency was reproduced with good accuracy for diameters of 3, 4 and 5 µm. / O ciclone é um equipamento utilizado para separar partículas suspensas em correntes gasosas. A análise do escoamento dentro do ciclone é complexa devido ao grande número de parâmetros e variáveis operacionais que influenciam na dinâmica do sistema. Devido a sua versatilidade de uso e a sua robustez nos resultados a fluidodinâmica computacional é uma alternativa importante utilizada com frequência no estudo da dinâmica do escoamento no ciclone. Na literatura existem vários trabalhos que fazem uso da fluidodinâmica computacional no estudo da queda de pressão. Entretanto, no estudo da eficiência de coleta, os artigos são em menor quantidade. No ciclone, a fluidodinâmica computacional permite simular a eficiência de coleta de partículas com diâmetro maiores que 5 µm com bastante precisão; a modelagem da eficiência de coleta para partículas com diâmetros menores ainda resultam em valores diferentes dos valores experimentais. Neste trabalho foram realizadas as simulações numéricas no ciclone tipo Stairmand; foram injetadas partículas de 1 a 5 µm. Para a verificação foram tomados dados experimentais disponíveis na literatura. Os dados experimentais foram obtidos por Zhao, Shen e Kang (2004) e Zhao (2005). A malha utilizada nas simulações, foi analisada antes e depois das simulações. Os modelos de turbulência utilizados para simular o escoamento no ciclone foram: Reynolds Stress Model (RSM) e Large Eddy Simulation (LES). A fase dispersa foi simulada considerando acoplamento de uma via e acoplamento de duas vias. Para integrar as equações de movimento das partículas, foram utilizados os esquemas de integração: implícito, analítico, trapezoidal e Runge-Kutta. Os resultados mostraram que a metodologia empregada mostrou-se adequada para reproduzir o comportamento do escoamento no ciclone. As porcentagens de erro obtidos na queda de pressão foram em média menores que 5% e na eficiência de coleta foram reproduzidas com boa precisão para os diâmetros de 3, 4 e 5 µm.

Some climate models predict that, within the next 30-50 years, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) will frequently exceed the current thermal tolerance of corals (Fitt et al. 2001; Hughes et al. 2003; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007). A potential consequence is that mass coral bleaching may take place (i) during warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events which are predicted to occur in some regions more frequently than the current 3-7 year periodicity (Hoegh-Guldberg 1999; Sheppard 2003) or (ii) perhaps as often as annually or biannually if corals and their symbionts are unable to acclimate to the higher SSTs (Donner et al. 2005, 2007). Global data also indicate an upward trend toward increasing frequencies, intensities, and durations of tropical hurricanes and cyclones (Emanual 2005; Webster et al. 2005). As coral communities have been shown to require at least 10-30 years to recover after a major disturbance (e.g. Connell 1997; Ninio et al. 2000; Bruno & Selig 2007; Burt et al. 2008), it is possible that future coral communities may be in a constant state of recovery, with regeneration times exceeding the periods between disturbances. Life history traits (e.g. reproduction, recruitment, growth and mortality) vary among species of hard corals; thus, gradients in community structures may have a strong influence on susceptibilities to disturbance and rates of recovery (Connell 1997; Ninio & Meekan 2002). Taxa which are more susceptible to bleaching and mechanical disturbance (e.g. tabular and branching acroporids and pocilloporids) may experience continual changes in population structure due to persistent cycles of regeneration or local extirpation, while the more resistant taxa (e.g. massive poritids and faviids) may display relatively stable population structures (Woodley et al. 1981; Hughes & Connell 1999; Baird & Hughes 2000; Marshall & Baird 2000; Loya et al. 2001; McClanahan & Maina 2003). Determining whether resistant coral taxa have predictable responses to disturbances, with consistent patterns over wide spatial scales, may improve predictions for the future affects of climate change and the composition of reefs (Done 1999; Hoegh-Guldberg 1999; McClanahan et al. 2004). The work presented in this dissertation describes the spatial and temporal patterns in community structures for high latitude coral assemblages that have experienced the types of natural disturbances which are predicted to occur in tropical reef systems with increasing frequency as a result of climate change. The primary area of focus is the southeastern Arabian Gulf, where the coral communities are exposed to natural conditions that exceed threshold limits of corals elsewhere in the world, with annual temperature ranges between 14-36°C (Kinzie 1973; Shinn 1976) and salinities above 40 ppt. Two additional regions are included in this study for comparisons of high latitude coral community structures. The northwestern Gulf of Oman is adjacent to the southeastern Arabian Gulf (i.e. the two bodies of water are connected by the Strait of Hormuz); however, the environmental conditions are milder in the Gulf of Oman such that the number of coral taxa therein is threefold that found in the southeastern Arabian Gulf (i.e. 107 coral species in the Gulf of Oman compared to 34 species in this region of the Arabian Gulf (Riegl 1999; Coles 2003; Rezai et al. 2004)). Broward County, Florida is geographically remote from the Gulfs and, therefore, serves as a benchmark for testing whether consistent patterns in community structures exist despite different climatic and anthropogenic influences. The coral communities within the southeastern Arabian Gulf, the northwestern Gulf of Oman, and Broward County, Florida have been exposed to recurrent elevated sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, sequential cyclone and red tide disturbances, and frequent hurricanes and tropical storms, respectively. These disturbances and other impacts (e.g. bleaching episodes, disease outbreaks, anthropogenic stresses) have affected the more susceptible acroporids and pocilloporids, resulting in significant losses of coral cover by these families and shifts towards massive corals as the dominant taxa. During the post-disturbance scarcity or absence of branching and tabular corals, the resistant massive taxa have become the crux of the essential hard coral habitat for fish, invertebrates and other marine organisms. Because recovery to pre-disturbance community structures may take decades or may not occur at all, it is vital that scientists and resource managers have a better understanding of the spatial and temporal ecology patterns of the corals that survive and fill in the functional gaps that are created by such disturbances. To aid in this understanding, this dissertation presents spatial and temporal patterns for the coral assemblages which have developed after the respective disturbances. Spatial ecology patterns are analyzed using graphical descriptions (e.g. taxa inventories, area cover, densities, size frequency distributions), univariate techniques (e.g. diversity indices), distributional techniques (e.g. k-dominance curves) and multivariate techniques (e.g. hierarchical clustering, multidimensional scaling). Temporal comparisons at monitoring sites within the southeastern Arabian Gulf and northwestern Gulf of Oman describe the coral population dynamics and are used to create size class transition models that project future population structures of massive corals in the recovering habitats.

Damages during extreme wind events highlight the weaknesses of mechanical fasteners at the roof-to-wall connections in residential timber frame buildings. The allowable capacity of the metal fasteners is based on results of unidirectional component testing that do not simulate realistic tri-axial aerodynamic loading effects. The first objective of this research was to simulate hurricane effects and study hurricane-structure interaction at full-scale, facilitating better understanding of the combined impacts of wind, rain, and debris on inter-component connections at spatial and temporal scales. The second objective was to evaluate the performance of a non-intrusive roof-to-wall connection system using fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) materials and compare its load capacity to the capacity of an existing metal fastener under simulated aerodynamic loads. The Wall of Wind (WoW) testing performed using FRP connections on a one-story gable-roof timber structure instrumented with a variety of sensors, was used to create a database on aerodynamic and aero-hydrodynamic loading on roof-to-wall connections tested under several parameters: angles of attack, wind-turbulence content, internal pressure conditions, with and without effects of rain. Based on the aerodynamic loading results obtained from WoW tests, sets of three force components (tri-axial mean loads) were combined into a series of resultant mean forces, which were used to test the FRP and metal connections in the structures laboratory up to failure. A new component testing system and test protocol were developed for testing fasteners under simulated tri-axial loading as opposed to uni-axial loading. The tri-axial and uni-axial test results were compared for hurricane clips. Also, comparison was made between tri-axial load capacity of FRP and metal connections. The research findings demonstrate that the FRP connection is a viable option for use in timber roof-to-wall connection system. Findings also confirm that current testing methods of mechanical fasteners tend to overestimate the actual load capacities of a connector. Additionally, the research also contributes to the development a new testing protocol for fasteners using tri-axial simultaneous loads based on the aerodynamic database obtained from the WoW testing.