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Calculating and governing risk in times of crisis : the role of credit ratings in regulatory reasoning and legal change (1930s - 2010s) / Calculer et gouverner les marchés en temps de crise : le rôle de la notation du crédit dans le raisonnement juridique et le changement réglementaire (1930s - 2010s)Pénet, Pierre 24 November 2014 (has links)
Située à l’articulation de la sociologie de l’économie, de l’histoire de la finance et de la sociologie de la connaissance, cette thèse présente donc une analyse du rôle de la notation du crédit dans la régulation financière, et plus largement, du rôle de l’incertitude et de l’incomplétude juridiques sur les anticipations économiques des acteurs financiers. Le cadre d’analyse de la recherche se résume en quatre points : Premièrement, la thèse rompt avec une lecture strictement intellectualiste de l’action publique et présente une approche de la régulation financière par ses instruments, empruntant ainsi l’approche pragmatiste développée par les social studies of finance et par la nouvelle sociologie économique d’inspiration américaine. Deuxièmement, l’hypothèse centrale de la recherche est que les instruments réglementaires sont à la fois des techniques de connaissance et des outils juridiques. Aussi, ce sont les frictions qu’occasionnent les deux activités parfois contradictoires de calculer et de gouverner qui donnent au changement réglementaire sa dynamique historique. Troisièmement, prenant l’exemple de l’usage de la notation dans la supervision financière comme dispositif de calcul et technique de gouvernement, la thèse propose une histoire de longue durée (1865-2010) de l’activité réglementaire sur les marchés financiers aux Etats-Unis et en Europe au travers de cinq régimes de régulation (régime statutaire, d’appel, disciplinaire, fictionnel et contractuel). Quatrièmement, l’originalité de la recherche est de combiner une approche macroscopique du changement réglementaire avec une approche méticuleuse de plusieurs courtes séquences historiques durant lesquelles d’importantes innovations réglementaires ont vu le jour, notamment le New Deal aux Etats-Unis et la crise de la dette souveraine en Europe. Ainsi, en plus de définir les contours de cinq régimes réglementaires, la thèse analyse la façon dont les régulateurs se sont saisis de la notation financière comme « mécanisme d’embrayage » afin d’opérationnaliser la transition d’un régime à un autre. / Located at the intersection of economic sociology, financial history, and the sociology of knowledge, this dissertation examines the role of credit ratings in financial regulation, and more broadly, the role of financial uncertainties and legal incompleteness on financial actors’ anticipatory decisions. The framework set forth in this study can be summarized as follows. First, this study breaks with an intellectualist approach of public action to analyze financial regulation from the perspective of its instruments. As such, this research draws on a pragmatist agenda developed in social studies of finance and recent work in economic sociology. Second, the main hypothesis of this dissertation is to approach regulatory instruments as technologies of knowing and tools of government. From this double viewpoint, I hypothesize that the frictions generated by the two competing activities of calculating and governing impart the regulatory activity with both its structural features and historical dynamics. Third, using the example of regulatory reliance on ratings, I propose a longue durée historical analysis (1865-2010) of the regulatory activity in the U.S. and Europe through the examination of five regulatory regimes (statutory, appeal, disciplinary, fictional, and contractual). Four, one original feature of this dissertation is to combine a macroscopic analysis of regulatory change with a meticulous approach of several short historical sequences during which important regulatory innovations came into being, notably the New Deal in the U.S. and the European sovereign debt crisis. Thus, in addition to setting the contours of five regulatory frameworks, this dissertation analyses the ways in which regulators used ratings as “clutching” devices to operationalize the legal transition from one regime to another.
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Věřitel poslední instance / Lender of Last ResortVarvařovský, Petr January 2017 (has links)
The topic of the final thesis is The Lender of Last Resort. Author of the final thesis has dealt with the issue through the analysis of the European current legislation, available Czech or foreign literature or other relevant sources. The function of the national banks, or other institutions, as a lender of last resort is very complex the final thesis examines from the legal and economical perspective. This matter even has obvious global societal dimension when the adequate performance of the lender of last resort has positive effect on the prosperity of the society. On the other hand when the performance is defective the opposite effect arises. The final thesis is divided into five chapters. First two chapters present and clarify the term of lender of last resort and provide us definitions. Second chapter, which builds upon the first two, is providing the reader with the historical context of the lender of last resort, whose development started on the British Islands at the end of the 18th century. The fourth chapter of the final thesis is dedicated to the criteria for granting financial aid by the lender of last resort and the means of the provision of the financial aid. The author has especially focused on the danger of the systemic risk and the too-big-to-fail doctrine. Last fifth chapter...
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Udržitelnost veřejných financí v EU: komparace SRN a Velké Británie / Sustainability of public finances in the EU: Comparison of Germany and Great BritainZajíček, Jakub January 2015 (has links)
Diploma Thesis deals with the comparison of public finances of the United Kingdom and the Federal Republic of Germany from 2000 to 2014. It focuses on the period of financial and economic crisis after 2008. This thesis aims to identify the impact of the financial and economic crisis on the sustainability of public finances of both countries. It also identify the reasons for the different development of public finances in both countries. The practical part is divided into three chapters. The first chapter deals with the period of 2000-2010. The second chapter focuses on consolidation of public finances in the years 2010-2014. The last chapter deals with the current development and sustainability of public finances of both countries.
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Suverénní entity - financování, kreditní riziko a rating / Sovereign entities - financing, credit risk and ratingNavrátil, Jan January 2015 (has links)
The echoes of Eurozone debt crisis brought into question the sovereign risk of advanced economies. Understanding factors that influence this risk is key to avoid similar crisis of public debt financing in the future. The main aim of this thesis is to identify which factors influence sovereign entity financing and how the problems of public debt financing arise. This is reached through analysis of debt crisis development and its causes in the GIPS economies.
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Zásadní problémy španělské ekonomiky v kontextu hospodářské krize od roku 2007 do roku 2012 / Main problems of spanish economy in the context of economic crisis from 2007 to 2012Havlasová, Petra January 2011 (has links)
Thesis describes origins of spanish financial and economic crisis and describes the main problems of spanish economy Spain deals with since 2008. There is also country evaluation Spain receives from raiting agencies, IMF and EU and description of anticrisis measures approved by spanish government.
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Úloha Německa v současném integračním procesu v Evropě / The Role of Germany in Today’s Process of Integration in EuropePetráňová, Zuzana January 2012 (has links)
When debt crisis fully started in the Eurozone, the attention was concentrated not only on states of southern Europe in debt, but also on Germany. If we consider that Germany is the biggest economy in Europe and its policy is tightly connected with EU, the decisions of the German government are important in the process of European integration. The thesis talks about actual role of Germany in today's crisis of the Eurozone. Because of the size of the problem the thesis is concentrated on last three years and it is focused on key events, whit caused the biggest discussion. The goal of the research is to find out which role Germany plays within EU and if it becomes or has already become a regional hegemony. In the analysis was partly used the role theory and also neomramscianism, that works with the hegemony concept. Results of the research shows that Germany becomes more self confident player. Player which today leaves the strategy of restraint and takes the role of a regional leader. The question of hegemony stays open, even though Germany refuses to identify itself with this role.
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Government yield spread determinants in the eurozone and the effect of the European debt crisis / Determinanter för statsobligationers räntespread i euroområdet och skuldkrisens påverkanKalantari, Arian January 2019 (has links)
The inception of the economic and monetary union (EMU) in January 1999 created new conditions for government debt. By eliminating currency exchange rate risk between the member states, the hope was to achieve a more sustainable and integrated government debt market in the euro area. Even though we witnessed relative stability for several years, the financial turmoil starting in 2008 and more so the European government debt crisis starting in late 2009 led to higher and more volatile yield differentials between the member states. This thesis explores the European government bond market to find the fundamental determinants of yield spreads and to see if the impact of these determinants changed since the start of the debt crisis. Financial theory suggests that there are three main fundamental drivers of government bond yields and as such lay the framework for finding the explanatory variables. By using a fixed-effect panel regression model the empirical findings of this study show that credit risk, liquidity risk, risk aversion all play a significant role in explaining yield spreads in the euro area. Furthermore, we find evidence of increasing marginal effects of all explanatory variables except for global risk aversion since the start of the crisis. We also consider the effect of the statement by the ECB President in 2012 where the ECB committed to quantitative easing as an important reason for the decrease in yields and illustrate this by expanding our model. The contribution of this study is centered around the use of longer timeseries data that provides the significant advantage of fully incorporating the European debt crisis which is something that previous studies were lacking. / Införandet av den ekonomiska och monetära unionen (EMU) i januari 1999 skapade nya villkor för statsskuldmarknaden. Genom att eliminera valutakursrisk mellan medlemsstaterna var förhoppningen att skapa en mer hållbar och integrerad statsskuldmarknad i euroområdet. Trots flera år av relativ stabilitet ledde finanskrisen 2008 och eurokrisen i slutet av 2009 till högre och mer volatila ränteskillnader mellan medlemsstaterna. Denna uppsats undersöker den europeiska obligationsmarknaden för att hitta de grundläggande determinanterna för räntespreads och för att se om effekterna av dessa determinanter har förändrats sedan skuldkrisens början. Genom att använda en “fixed-effects” regressionsmodell visar de empiriska resultaten att kreditrisk, likviditetsrisk, riskaversion spelar en viktig roll för att förklara räntespreads i euroområdet. Vidare finner vi bevis på ökande marginaleffekter för alla determinanter med undantag för global riskaversion sedan krisens början. Vi undersöker också effekten av ECB-Presidentens uttalande 2012 som indikerade en hängivenhet till kvantitativ lättnad som en viktig orsak till fallet i räntespread och illustrerar detta genom att utöka vår modell. Bidraget från denna studie är centrerad kring användandet av längre tidsseriedata som ger den stora fördelen att inkorporera den europeiska skuldkrisen vilket är något som tidigare studier ofta saknat.
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Analýza vzájemné závislosti výnosů z vládních dluhopisů v EU / Time-scale analysis of sovereign bonds market co-movement in the EUŠmolík, Filip January 2014 (has links)
The thesis analyses co-movement of 10Y sovereign bond yields of 11 EU mem- bers (Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, Germany, Netherlands, Great Britain, Belgium, Sweden and Denmark) divided into the three groups (the Core of the Eurozone, the Periphery of the Eurozone, the states outside the Eurozone). In the center of attention are changes of co-movement in the crisis period, especially near the two significant dates - the fall of Lehman Brothers (15.9.2008) and the day, when increase of Greek public deficit was announced (20.10.2009). Main contribution of the thesis is usage of alternative methodol- ogy - wavelet transformation. It allows to research how co-movement changes across scales (frequencies) and through time. Wavelet coherence is used as well as wavelet bivariate and multiple correlation. The thesis brings three main findings: (1) co-movement significantly decreased in the crisis period, but the results differ in the groups, (2) co-movement significantly differs across scales, but its heterogeneity decreased in the crisis period, (3) near to the examined dates sharp and significant decrease of wavelet correlation was observable across lower scales in some states. JEL Classification C32, C49, C58, H63 Keywords Co-movement, Wavelet Transformation, Sovereign Debt Crisis, Sovereign Bond Yields,...
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Modelos, contramodelos e seu contexto: as respostas sul-coreana a argentina à crise da dívida como evidência da complexa interação entre o processo político e as formças da economia internacional / Models, against models and its context: South Korean and Argentine responses to the Debt Crisis as evidences of the complex interaction between the political process and the forces of the international economySilva, Rodrigo Luiz Medeiros da 20 April 2012 (has links)
No fim dos anos 1970, dois choques externos o segundo salto nos preços do petróleo e o reajuste na taxa básica de juros norte-americana marcam o início de tendências econômicas divergentes entre o Leste da Ásia e a América Latina. Para os prósperos tigres, a próxima década seria uma janela para o chamado catching up, culminando com a promoção simbólica de seu prodígio, a Coréia do Sul, ao status de país desenvolvido quando da realização dos Jogos Olímpicos em Seul. Na América Latina, inversamente, os anos 1980 são geralmente apelidados de Década Perdida, inaugurando uma era de regressão econômica e instabilidade política. A Argentina, provavelmente a menos dinâmica dentre as economias que então se industrializavam, é geralmente evocada como um desastre que tipifica a sina regional. A vasta maioria das investigações acerca desta divergência se concentra nas políticas econômicas domésticas e em seus resultados objetivos. Não obstante, tais políticas foram formuladas e aplicadas sob uma combinação de circunstâncias internacionais e políticas que podem variar consideravelmente de país para país ao longo do tempo. O objetivo deste texto é examinar em que medida algumas das particularidades destes dois casos naquilo que concerne ao processo político interno e à evolução da economia internacional moldaram a reação de cada qual ao cenário adverso. / At the end of the 1970s, a couple of external shocks namely, the second leap in petroleum prices and the readjust of American basic interest rate mark the beginning of divergent economic trends for East Asia and Latin America. For the prosperous tigers, the following decade would be a time for catching up, culminating with the symbolic promotion of its prodigy, South Korea, to the rank of a developed country by the time of Seouls Summer Olympics. In Latin America, inversely, the 1980s are generally nicknamed the Lost Decade, inaugurating an era of economic regression and political instability. Argentina, probably the worlds less dynamic industrializing economy at that time, is usually evoked as a disaster that typifies the regional fate. The vast majority of the investigations about this diversion concentrate on domestic economic policies and their objective results. Nonetheless, such policies were formulated and launched under a combination of international and political circumstances that can vary considerably from country to country and along the course of time. The aim of this text is to examine to what extent have some of these two cases particularities in what concerns to the domestic politic process and the evolution of international economy molded each national reaction to the adverse scenario.
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Stabilita eurozóny v kontextu dopadů ekonomické krize / Stability of the euro area in the context of the impact of economic crisisMalinová, Lucie January 2011 (has links)
The aim of the thesis is to evaluate the stability of the euro area in the context of the impact of the economic crisis. The work is divided into three chapters. The theory of optimum currency area was identified as a fundamental theoretical basis for subsequent analysis, and then Ireland and Portugal were chosen as the two countries representing vulnerable economies, which have been subjected to more detailed examination and comparison. These two parts were for the coherence of the whole work set in the historical context of European monetary integration. The first part deals with a theory of optimal currency area. The first chapter is further analysis of potential benefits and costs of the monetary area. The second chapter focuses on the historical context of monetary integration in Europe and recent developments in euro area countries. The theme of the third chapter is to compare the impact of the crisis on the Irish and the Portuguese economy. This chapter focuses on the main causes of the crisis in Ireland and then in Portugal, the impact of the crisis on them and stability restoring program adopted in the context of drawing loans from the European Commission, ECB and IMF. In the last part of the third chapter the causes and effects of the crisis in Ireland and Portugal were mutually compared. The conclusion of this chapter is devoted to the prospects of these countries into the future.
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