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The housing prices have increased in a rapid pace in Stockholm the past decades. Simultaneously, the interest rates have decreased drastically, since the global financial crisis in 2008. The two movements combined have led to higher debt among Swedish households and especially in the capital, Stockholm. This article presents a quantitative research investigating which types of households, based on their social economic profile, will be mostly affected by an increased mortgage rate. The DSR is calculated for each HH, taking in account the amortization regulations introduced in 2016 and 2018. By doing a regression analysis using the DSR as the dependent variable and the socioeconomic factors as independent variables, we find that income and age are the variables with highest significance describing the DSR. Additionally, we investigate the socioeconomic profile of those households that have the highest DSR increment, based on specific cluster made by Insightone. The findings of the paper suggest that four out of 44 types of families have exceptionally higher exposure to the two different mortgage-rate increase scenarios. Three of these four family clusters are young, have children, high income and lives in houses. The remaining family cluster is young, have no children, has low income but is highly educated. / Bostadspriserna har ökat snabbt de senaste åren i Stockholm. Samtidigt har räntan sjunkit jämfört med de nivåerna som var under finanskrisen 2008. Dessa två faktorer kombinerade med varandra har lett till högra bolån bland det svenska folket och främst för de som bor i Stockholm. Denna artikel är en kvantitativ studie som undersöker vilka typer av hushåll baserad på deras socioekonomiska profil som påverkas mest av en ökad bolåneränta. Först räknade vi ut skuldsättningsgrad för varje hushåll. I dessa beräkningar tog vi hänsyn till de nya amorteringskraven som har införts från 206 och framåt. Därefter gjorde vi en regressionsanalys där vårt resultat blev att inkomst, ålder och amortering är de faktorer som påverkar skuldsättningsgrad mest. Senare undersöker vi hur den typiska familjen ser ut där resultatet blev att unga, utan barn, låg inkomst och högutbildade är de som påverkas mest av en ökad bolåneränta.

abstract: This dissertation is a collection of three essays relating household financial obligations to asset prices. Financial obligations include both debt payments and other financial commitments. In the first essay, I investigate how household financial obligations affect the equity premium. I modify the standard Mehra-Prescott (1985) consumption-based asset pricing model to resolve the equity risk premium puzzle. I focus on two channels: the preference channel and the borrowing constraints channel. Under reasonable parameterizations, my model generates equity risk premiums similar in magnitudes to those observed in U.S. data. Furthermore, I show that relaxing the borrowing constraint shrinks the equity risk premium. In the Second essay, I test the predictability of excess market returns using the household financial obligations ratio. I show that deviations in the household financial obligations ratio from its long-run mean is a better forecaster of future market returns than alternative prediction variables. The results remain significant using either quarterly or annual data and are robust to out-of-sample tests. In the third essay, I investigate whether the risk associated with household financial obligations is an economy-wide risk with the potential to explain fluctuations in the cross-section of stock returns. The multifactor model I propose, is a modification of the capital asset pricing model that includes the financial obligations ratio as a ``conditioning down" variable. The key finding is that there is an aggregate hedging demand for securities that pay off in periods characterized by higher levels of financial obligations ratios. The consistent pricing of financial obligations risk with a negative risk premium suggests that the financial obligations ratio acts as a state variable. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Economics 2017

Submitted by MARCO ANTONIO BORGES (marcoabo@yahoo.com) on 2016-12-29T23:39:46Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Monografia_Marco_Borges_final_protocolo.pdf: 1475419 bytes, checksum: 2bdf046a99b07047a77b094ecde2cb32 (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Marco, boa tarde Por gentileza, retirar a acentuação do nome Getúlio e submeter novamente o arquivo. Att on 2016-12-30T13:51:45Z (GMT) / Submitted by MARCO ANTONIO BORGES (marcoabo@yahoo.com) on 2016-12-30T15:23:07Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Monografia_Marco_Borges_final_protocolo.pdf: 1474578 bytes, checksum: 77fc797b0e6aae88f089845229138c2d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2016-12-30T17:15:05Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Monografia_Marco_Borges_final_protocolo.pdf: 1474578 bytes, checksum: 77fc797b0e6aae88f089845229138c2d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-30T17:59:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Monografia_Marco_Borges_final_protocolo.pdf: 1474578 bytes, checksum: 77fc797b0e6aae88f089845229138c2d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-12-20 / This paper investigates the determinants of household debt-service ratio, using disaggregate data from the Household Budget Surveys of 2002/2003 and 2008/2009 from IBGE. The results show strong evidence of the influence of payroll loans on the increase of debt-service ratio in Brazilian families in the period considered. It was also found that indebtedness is associated with the occurrence of financial difficulties affecting spending on housing, health and food at the household. Assessing the influence of debt on the likelihood of financial difficulties, we conclude that the existence of debt increases more strongly the vulnerability of families whose heads are female, over the age of 60, with more than 11 years of schooling or belonging to the 40% higher incomes. In households headed by women, the impact of debt on financial vulnerability can be attributed to socioeconomic factors and adds to the already high vulnerability of these families. In the other cases identified (householders over 60 years, more than 11 years of schooling and families between the 40% higher income) financial vulnerability is lower, but the impact of debt is greater than average due to the high debt-service ratio. This may indicate an inadequate volume, interest rate or term in the credit offered to this segment. / Este trabalho investiga os determinantes do comprometimento de renda familiar com o pagamento de dívidas, utilizando os dados desagregados das Pesquisas de Orçamentos Familiares de 2002/2003 e 2008/2009 do IBGE. Os resultados mostram forte evidência da influência do Crédito Consignado sobre o aumento do comprometimento de renda das famílias brasileiras no período considerado. Também verificamos que o endividamento está associado à ocorrência de dificuldades financeiras que afetam gastos com habitação, saúde e alimentação no domicílio. Avaliando a influência do endividamento sobre probabilidade de ocorrência de dificuldades financeiras, concluímos que a existência de dívidas aumenta mais fortemente a vulnerabilidade das famílias cujos chefes são do sexo feminino, com idade acima de 60 anos, com mais de 11 anos de estudo ou pertencentes às 40% maiores rendas. Nos domicílios chefiados por mulheres, o impacto do endividamento sobre a probabilidade de ocorrência de dificuldades financeiras pode ser atribuído a fatores socioeconômicos e vem se somar à já elevada vulnerabilidade destas famílias. Já os demais casos identificados (chefes de família com mais de 60 anos, mais de 11 anos de estudo e famílias entre as 40% maiores rendas) apresentam vulnerabilidade financeira mais baixa, porém nestes domicílios o impacto do endividamento é maior do que a média devido ao elevado comprometimento de renda. Isto pode indicar uma inadequação no volume, taxa ou prazo do crédito ofertado para este segmento.