Thesis advisor: Donald Cox / This dissertation consists of two essays which address the origins of the business cycle. In particular, it asks: to what extent do behavioral or psychological effects, famously termed "animal spirits" by John Maynard Keynes, contribute to the amplification of business cycle fluctuations. The first essay, titled "The Labor Market Effects of Bad Economic News", examines the effects of economically pessimistic newspaper articles on hiring and employment patterns. Combining information on newspaper subscriptions with automated content analysis of newspaper articles, the paper reconstructs the flow of pessimistic news across the United States during the past recession on a county-by-county, quarter-by-quarter basis. This high resolution map of pessimistic news delivery is then used to estimate the causal impact of media pessimism on labor market outcomes. Exposure to negative news is found to suppress hiring and total employment during the early stages of the recession by up to 40% compared to pre-recession levels; overall, media pessimism can account for some 7% of jobs lost between 2007 and 2010. Further analysis of Google search data suggests that this contractionary effect is mediated by changes in public attitude caused by exposure to pessimistic stories in the media. Importantly, this study considers only articles which report negative news about the state of the national economy, rather than stories which focus on local events. It argues that the prevalence of such news stories affects local labor market conditions, but is unlikely to be affected by such conditions. This approach helps to address the simultaneity issues which have dogged previous research on the topic. The second essay, titled "Uncertainty and Risk Averse Firms in DSGE" a develops theoretical framework to rationalize the previous paper's empirical results. This paper solves a simple general equilibrium model in which firms are risk averse over future profits in a manner analogous to household risk aversion. It shows that response to increased economic uncertainty - particularly uncertainty with regards to future consumer demand, economies with risk averse firms are likely to undergo a business cycle contraction. This result also addresses a long standing problem in the RBC literature; namely, how to generate a contraction with a Keynesian demand side shock. In most models with risk averse utility-maximizing households, a reduction in aggregate demand due to consumer-side changes is expansionary. The paper argues that by introducing firm-side risk aversion into the model, this counter-intuitive behavior can be corrected in a realistic and parsimonious manner. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2014. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

[pt] A utilização de um modelo eficiente para o abastecimento de clientes VMI (Vendor Management Inventory) é um dos fatores mais importantes para que as empresas promovam uma relação equilibrada entre o nível de serviço oferecido ao cliente e o custo logístico associado a operação. Dado a importância do assunto, e a possibilidade por parte da autora de participar da implementação de um novo sistema para o abastecimento de clientes VMI em uma empresa de gases industriais e medicinais, o objetivo desta dissertação foi analisar a adoção deste novo sistema e os principais resultados obtidos após sua implementação. Foram ressaltados os pontos relacionados com a previsão de vendas, a programação de entregas e os indicadores de desempenho. A metodologia utilizada para a elaboração desse trabalho incluiu: pesquisa bibliográfica, dados de fontes primárias extraídos de sistemas de informação da empresa e de entrevistas não estruturadas com funcionários envolvidos na operação, além de visitas in loco para observação direta. Os resultados desta dissertação foram uma análise da operação antes e depois da implementação do novo sistema na Empresa de Gases Alfa e uma comparação com a operação da matriz americana da Empresa. Os motivos pelos quais a operação no Brasil não atingiu os mesmos patamares da operação americana, mesmo após a adoção do novo sistema, assim como ações de melhoria, também foram expostos na dissertação. / [en] The use of an efficient model for costumer VMI (Vendor Management Inventory) supply is one of the most important factors for companies to promote a balanced trade-off between the service level offered to the costumer and the logistic cost associated to the operation. Given the importance of the subject, and the possibility of the author to take part of the implementation of a new system to supply VMI costumers of an industrial and medicine gases company, the aim of this dissertation was to analyze the adoption of this system and the main results obtained after its implementation. It shall be highlighted spots related to sales prevision, delivery programming and performance indexes. The methodology used for elaborate this dissertation has included: bibliographic research, data of primary sources of the information system of the company and non-structured interviews with employees involved in the operation, besides in situ visits for direct observation. The results of this dissertation were an analysis of the operation before and after the implementation of the new system and a comparison with the operation of the company`s American office. The reasons through which the operation in Brazil has not reached the levels of the American operation, even after the adoption of the new system, as well as improvement actions, were also herein exposed.

Thesis advisor: Julie Holland Mortimer / Television ads have become as much a part of watching TV as the programs themselves. They are such a ubiquitous component of network and cable television that they have developed their own sub-culture; popular commercials get brought up in conversation, and many commercial actors become famous for portraying their respective characters. For how prevalent television advertising is and always has been, though, it’s amazing how little is known about advertiser demand. While many academics have conducted studies on the effects of advertising, little research has been steered towards understanding why advertisers choose to advertise when they do, especially within the context of advertising on TV. My research revolves around answering this question, as I attempt to establish patterns that can predict when firms will choose to advertise. By looking at data on past advertising trends, I try to find a sense of consistency across firms and across industries and then use that information to analyze and explain any observed changes in behavior during highly rated telecasts. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2016. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Departmental Honors. / Discipline: Economics.

O principal objetivo desta Dissertação foi o de se definir uma metodologia de planejamento de transportes que fosse sintetizada e menos onerosa que a do processo tradicional e, principalmente, que permitisse dispensar a pesquisa domiciliar, atividade demorada, trabalhosa e cara. O trabalho consistiu de uma análise superficial de diversos trabalhos existentes, elegendo quatro deles para uma análise mais detalhada, o que permitiu definir a metodologia proposta. O método baseia-se na determinação de produções e atrações de viagens a partir do conhecimento do número de unidades de uso de solos (residências, lojas, escritórios, indústrias, etc.) existentes na área de estudo, com suas respectivas características, aplicando-se-lhes taxas transferidas de outros estudos. As produções e atrações de viagens são distribuídas utilizando-se o modelo gravitacional, com parâmetros da função impedância transferidos de outros estudos. A divisão modal e a alocação de tráfego seguem o padrão tradicional, tendo sido indicada a utilização de programas de computador para a realização de alocação de equilíbrio. Segue o modelo de quatro etapas, onde a diferença fundamental está no fato de que, por não se dispor de dados completos, por causa da não realização das entrevistas de O/D domiciliares, são realizados diversos procedimentos de ajustes com o objetivo de se verificar o grau de compatibilidade das taxas transferidas utilizadas. O trabalho restringiu-se à alocação de tráfego na rede viária para o ano base, e à comparação com o fluxo observado, verificando-se que o processo conduz a um resultado aceitável. / The main aim of this work was the definition of a transportation planning methodology that was synthesized and less expensive than the one presented by the traditional process, and, more than this, which could be done without household research. A superficial analysis of several works was conducted, and four of them were chosen for a more detailed analysis, which allowed to define the proposed methodology. The method is based on the determination of trip production and trip attraction once the number of houses, shops, offices, industries, etc. present in the area of study is known, as well as their respective characteristics, and taxes from other studies were used. The trip distribution was performed using the gravitational model, applying parameters of the impedance function transferred from other studies. The modal split and the traffic assignment follow the traditional standard and the use of computational programs to perform the equilibrium assignment has been indicated. It follows the four steps model, where the fundamental difference is that, because complete data were not available, once household O/D interviews were not performed, several adjusting procedures were performed, to verify the degree of compatibility of the used transferred taxes. The work is limited to traffic assignment in the road network for the base year, and to the comparison with the observed flow, and it was verified that the process leads to an acceptable result.

Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar o impacto da oferta e da demanda por trabalho qualificado sobre o diferencial de salários entre trabalhadores de elevada e baixa qualificação para o Brasil, durante o período de 1992 a 2009. Para tanto, foi utilizado um modelo microeconômico de oferta e demanda por trabalho qualificado, sendo que a qualificação é determinada pelos anos completos de escolaridade. Dessa maneira, foi constatada uma elevação do diferencial de salários entre o trabalho de elevada qualificação (com ensino superior) e baixa qualificação (com ensino médio ou ensino básico) no período de 1992 a 2001, que foi impulsionada pelo efeito da demanda por trabalho qualificado. Por sua vez, no período de 2002 a 2009, foi constatada uma pequena diminuição desse diferencial, determinada pela intensificação da oferta relativa de trabalho qualificado que ocorreu durante esse período. / The objective of this dissertation is to assess the impact of supply and demand for skills in the wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers in Brazil, during 1992 and 2009. To do so, a microeconomic model of supply and demand for skill was used where a worker\'s skill is directly linked with its educational level. In this matter, a rise in the skill premium (wage differentials between college and less than college workers) was observed between 1992 and 2001, driven by the demand for skilled labor. Adversely, during 2002 and 2009, a slight decrease in the skill premium was observed which was driven by the intensification of the relative supply of skilled workers.

A critical evaluation of the national profile of energy supply and demand and the associated greenhouse gas (OHO) emissions in China has been conducted. The contribution of the transport sector in China, the road transport sector in particular, to China's overall energy demand and OHO emissions has been assessed and compared with values for other countries. Approaches for reducing energy demand and OHO emissions in the road transport sector worldwide have been reviewed. A detailed bottom-up model has been developed using 'LEAP' software, to estimate future energy demand and OHO emissions in China's road transport sector, incorporating China's recent efforts in alternative fuel promotion. Modelling approach and historical data used have been tested and verified to ensure reliability. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of China's road transport sector between 2005 and 2030. The 'Business as Usual' scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario, in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long-term trends of road transport energy demand. The 'Best Case' scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures are assumed to be implemented. Energy demand and OHO emissions in China's road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios. The reduction potential and the relative contribution of each measure have been estimated. A 'life cycle assessment' model for the road transport sector has been developed. The life cycle energy demand and OHO emissions in China's road transport sector are estimated using the model. The reduction potential and the relative contribution of each measure have been re-assessed from a life cycle perspective. Potential impacts on global oil resources, availability and prices are discussed. The importance of life cycle assessment in evaluating the effects of different reduction measures is discussed. Policy implications are presented.

O turismo entrou em um período de forte expansão após a Segunda Guerra Mundial que perdura até os dias atuais. O aumento da circulação de turistas repercute na geração de renda e empregos para os países visitados, além do enriquecimento adquirido através das trocas culturais. Este crescimento tem despertado o interesse da comunidade científica, bem como profissional, com o intuito de explorar as metodologias para a modelagem e previsão da demanda turística. Estimativas acuradas da demanda servem de apoio para corretas tomadas de decisão por parte dos gestores quanto ao dimensionamento adequado de recursos financeiros, especialmente frente à realização de um evento de grandes proporções. Neste sentido, este trabalho tem por objetivos verificar quais são as técnicas atualmente mais utilizadas para previsão de demandas turísticas através de revisão da literatura, desde 2005 até 2015; utilizar dois métodos de modelagem (ARIMA e RNA) para modelar e prever a demanda turística de duas sedes olímpicas recentes; comparar essas previsões com as previsões obtidas por cinco métodos de combinação de previsões (médias aritmética, harmônica e geométrica, variância mínima e regressão linear) e; aplicar o método mais acurado para prever a demanda turística do Brasil. Os resultados foram avaliados através de três medidas de acurácia. Em virtude da realização dos Jogos Olímpicos em 2016, a demanda brasileira para este período foi modelada e prevista e a previsão foi ajustada segundo um ajuste matemático sazonal, objetivando ganho de acurácia. Foi observado ganho de acurácia quando as previsões foram combinadas e, na série brasileira, o ajuste adotado indicou um acréscimo de 175% na demanda original para agosto de 2016. / Tourism has experienced a strong increase since the end of World War II. The increase in tourist circulation results in income and employment expansion, besides the cultural enrichment involved in such experiences. This growth has attracted attention from the scientific community as well as professional, with the objective of exploring the methodologies for tourism demand modelling and forecasts. Accurate demand estimates serve as support for correct decision making by managers especially considering financial resource scaling for major events. In this sense, this study aims to verify which techniques are more currently used for forecasting tourism demand through review of the literature from 2005 to 2015; using two modeling methods (ARIMA and ANN) to make models and forecasting the tourism demand of two recent Olympic hosts; comparing these forecasts with the forecasts obtained for five methods of combining forecasts (arithmetic, harmonic and geometric means, minimum variance and linear regression) and; applying the most accurated method to forecast the tourism demand in Brazil. The results were evaluated using three different accuracy measurements. By virtue of the 2016 Olympic Games, the Brazilian tourism demand was modeled and the forecast was adjusted by a seasonal mathematical adjustment, designed for better precision. A gain in preciseness was observed when forecasts were combined and, for the Brazilian series, the adopted adjustment indicated an increase of 175% when compared with the original demand for August 2016.

Esta tese tem como objetivo compreender as práticas relacionadas ao consumo de produtos audiovisuais sob demanda em plataformas digitais através da investigação das práticas relacionadas à Netflix na rotina dos seus usuários. O referencial teórico toma como base a Teoria da Prática, na qual a prática é considerada um comportamento rotinizado, com vários elementos interconectados, em uma relação constante entre agentes e objetos. O estudo empírico acontece a partir de entrevistas semiestruturadas e observação dos espaços de consumo — os respondentes foram selecionados por meio de um questionário prévio compartilhado em sites de redes sociais. A investigação acontece com base em cinco eixos: materiais, competências, dinâmicas afetivas, relacionais e espaço-temporais. Em termos gerais, conclui-se que o consumo de conteúdo na Netflix e as práticas relacionadas adquiriram ao longo do tempo um caráter social e recursivo, e assumem também uma dimensão afetiva no cotidiano dos usuários. Nesse sentido, nota-se também o estabelecimento e a reprodução de fluxos de consumo interconectados, nos quais usuários e empresa relacionam-se continuamente: de um lado, há a disponibilização contínua de conteúdo, e do outro, o acesso rotinizado, fragmentado e marcado pela insaciabilidade e autonomia do tempo dedicado à prática, o que favorece a manutenção da estrutura. / The aim of this study is to understand consumption habits of on-demand audiovisual products available on digital platforms by investigating how Netflix is incorporated into the routines of its subscribers. The theoretical reference is based on the practice theory, where the practice is a routine behavior with many interconnected elements of a constant relationship between agents and objects. The empirical research is comprised of semi-structured interviews and by observing spaces of consumption – the respondents were selected from a survey made available on social network sites. The research is based on five axes: materials, skills, affective dynamics, relational and space-time. Overall, it is concluded that content consumption in Netflix and related practices acquired a social and recursive character over time, assuming an affective dimension. In this respect, users and companies are constantly relating with one another in a flowing exchange of interconnected consumption. On one hand, there is constant access to content; on the other, there is routine access which can be fragmented and determined by one’s insatiableness and how much time is spent on it, a key to maintaining its structure.

Thesis. 1975. Ph.D.--Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Economics. / Vita. / Bibliography: leaves 213-214. / Ph.D.

The field of International Trade aims to study the consequences of the spatial disconnection between the activities of production and consumption, which has been allowed by the increasing opening of the economies. However, while most of the history of the field has focused on the role played by production in shaping trade patterns, only recently researchers have emphasized the importance of demand characteristics. This dissertation follows these recent works by containing three essays that specifically study the importance of demand characteristics on export patterns at the microeconomic level. In the first chapter of this dissertation, I explore the importance of the dynamic aspects of demand on the export decisions made by firms. Standard dynamic models of trade identify sunk entry costs as the main export barrier faced by firms. However, these large entry costs are inconsistent with the existence of many small new exporters with low survival rates in foreign markets. In this chapter, I study the role of destination-specific demand dynamics by introducing, in a dynamic model of trade, the idea that firms gradually accumulate consumers in foreign markets. Estimating the model using export data from individual French firms, I show that this consumer margin is consistent with the dynamics of sales, prices and survival of exporters, but also leads to much lower estimates of the entry costs of exporting - about one third of those estimated in the standard model. Moreover, this change in the nature of trade barriers has important implications at the aggregate level. In contrast to the standard model, this model correctly replicates the slow response of trade to shocks and the increasing contribution of the extensive margin in this response. Finally, I demonstrate using out-of-sample predictions that the model better predicts actual trade responses to an observed shock than the standard model. The second chapter presents a novel instrumental variable strategy to estimate product quality at the micro level using trade data. Written with Gabriel Smagghue from University Carlos III of Madrid, this work develops a new firm-specific instrument, based on variations in exchange rates combined with firm-specific import shares, that delivers, under weak assumptions, consistent estimates of demand elasticity and firm product quality. Implementing our method using French customs data, we document the reliability of these measures through correlations with firm characteristics and alternative measures of quality. Finally, we use our estimates to document the quality response of French firms when facing low-wage competition on foreign markets. Finally, in the third chapter of this dissertation, I document the positive correlation between the size of a firm and its advertising intensity - measured by the amount spent in advertising as percentages of sales. Taking advantage of firm-level information about advertising expenditures from the Chilean manufacturing census, I show that this correlation holds between firms operating within a similar industry, and is stronger in industries with a larger scope for vertical differentiation. Building on these findings, I develop a model of advertising with heterogeneous firms, based on Arkolakis (2010). In addition to using advertising to inform consumers about the existence of their good, firms can use advertising to affect consumers' valuation of their products. Consistent with the empirical findings, this latter feature of advertising leads to a positive link between the advertising intensity of a firm and its size. Moreover, this link is amplified by a parameter describing the degree of vertical differentiation of the product.