La resilience dans l’humanitaire. Un concept pour penser autrement la gouvernance des catastrophes socio-climatiques. Le concept de resilience integre l’espace humanitaire au debut du XXIe siecle. Il a pour point de depart l’ambition affichee par les ONG d'ameliorer l’impact de leurs activites sur les populations les plus vulnerables. Si le concept de resilience est ne dans les sciences physiques, son integration au milieu du XXe siecle dans de multiples domaines de recherche : environnement, economie, psychologie et politique, le dote aujourd’hui de diverses interpretations et definitions. Au travers de ses racines multiples, cette integration est, par deduction, limitée par la complexite a trouver une definition, des indicateurs et une methodologie satisfaisante permettant de mesurer et donc d’ameliorer l’aide apportee aux victimes. En nous focalisant sur la gestion des catastrophes socio-climatiques, a savoir celles liees aux activites humaines sur les ecosystemes et aux phenomenes climatiques extremes, nous avons fait le choix d’interroger le sens et la portee de ce concept dans l’humanitaire. En d’autres termes, aux cote;s de ses aspects theoriques, comment apprehender la resilience pour penser autrement la gouvernance des catastrophes socio-climatiques ?Notre etude en 2014 sur l’evolution des trajectoires de vie de 144 foyers dans le Delta des Sundarbans au sud du Bangladesh, met en lumiere une typologie de ces differentes capacites, suite aux cyclones Sidr 2007 et Aila 2009. Par ailleurs, nos resultats avancent l’idee que, si la resilience est une capacite endogene, elle interagit avec deux autres termes complementaires et polemiques qui ont integre l’espace humanitaire entre le milieu et la fin du XXe siecle : la vulnerabilite et l’adaptation des societes. Nous soutenons que, si ces trois termes sont dissociables et parfois meme contradictoires, leur chevauchement permet une analyse plus fine des capacites des foyers au sein des collectivites et des services ecosystemiques locaux. Ce qui nous permet de mettre en avant que le concept de resilience s’apprehende dans l’humanitaire comme une notion integratrice vulnerabilite, resilience et adaptation au service d’une approche systemique de la gouvernance des catastrophes.Nous defendons que la resilience puisse aussi etre apprehendee comme une approche systemique qui bouscule le modele humanitaire, puisqu’il ne s’agit plus seulement pour repondre aux catastrophes de s’inspirer du modele classique urgence, rehabilitation et developpement mais bien de gerer tout au long du cycle d’un projet la confusion et les perceptions contradictoires de la crise et des risques. L’integration de la resilience concourt ainsi a; une modelisation de l’aide basee sur les aspects fonctionnels, structurels et operationnels de l’organisation avec une vision plus integree des systemes socio- ecologiques, a savoir la capacite des foyers a rebondir couplee a celle des services ecosystemiques locaux.Au travers des multiples polemiques qui traversent l’idee de resilience, nous assistons, si ce n’est a un bouleversement profond du paradigme humanitaire, a un enrichissement de la pensee sur la gouvernance des catastrophes et sur les modeles de l’aide qui les accompagnent. Des lors, nous posons notre question de recherche, en quoi le concept de resilience s’apprehende dans l’humanitaire a une approche systemique et a des modeles complementaires de l’aide integres dans la relation durable societe-environnement ? / Resilience in humanitarian. A concept to think differently about the governance of socio-climate disasters.The concept of resilience integrates the humanitarian space in the early 21st century. Its starting point is the ambition of the NGOs to improve the impact of their activities on the most vulnerables populations. If the concept of resilience was born in the physical sciences, its integration in the mid 20th century in multiple research areas: environment, economy, psychology and politics, endows it today with various interpretations and definitions. Through its multiple roots, this integration is by deduction, limited by the complexity to find a definition, indicators and adequate methodology to measure and therefore improve assistance to victims. By focusing on managing socio-climate disasters, namely those related to human activities on ecosystems and extreme climate events, we have chosen to question the meaning and scope of this concept in humanitarian. In other words, the side of its theoretical aspects, how to understand resilience to think differently about the governance of socio-climate disasters?We put forward the idea that resilience is a concept. In the sense that resilience is a general idea that helps to organize knowledge on multiple and complex rebounds capacity of an entity following a shock. Our study in 2014 on the evolution of life histories of 144 homes in the Delta of the Sundarbans in Southern Bangladesh highlights a typology of different capacities following the cyclones Sidr 2007 and Aila 2009. Furthermore, our results argue the idea that if resilience is an endogenous capacity, it interacts with two additional terms and controversies that have integrated the humanitarian space between the middle and late 20th century: the vulnerability and adaptation of societies. We argue that if these three terms are severable and sometimes contradictory, their overlapping enables a more detailed analysis of issues and local socio-ecological dynamics. This allows us to point out our first hypothesis: the concept of resilience is apprehended in humanitarian as an integrating concept serving a systemic approach to disasters governance.Finally, we defend that resilience can also be seen as a systemic approach that challenges the humanitarian model. Since it is not only taking inspiration from the classical model like planning, development, and quality control to answer to disasters, but to be able to model the confusion and conflicting perceptions of the crisis and risks. The integration of resilience contributes to a modeling aid, based on functional, structural and historical aspects of the organization with a more integrated vision of the socio-ecological systems.Through many controversies that cross the idea of resilience, we are witnessing, if this is not a profound change of paradigm in humanitarian, to an enrichment of the thought on governance of disasters, and the models of helps that goes with them. Therefore we ask our research question, how the concept of resilience is apprehended in humanitarian to a systemic approach and innovative models of assistance that emphasize an integrated relationship society-environment?

Les pertes économiques liées aux catastrophes naturelles ont augmenté dans le monde plus rapidement que le PIB les trente dernières années en raison d’un accroissement de population et d’un faible niveau de prévention dans les régions exposées. De plus, seulement un tiers de ces pertes sont assurées et la faible pénétration de l’assurance génère des chocs de richesse pour les populations affectées. Dans ce contexte et dans la perspective du changement climatique, réduire les pertes liées aux catastrophes naturelles et accroître la couverture d’assurance sont devenus des enjeux majeurs pour nos sociétés, qui sont abordés dans la présente thèse. Les faibles niveaux de prévention et d’assurance peuvent s’expliquer par les nombreuses imperfections de marché et les politiques publiques déficientes, comme l’explique le chapitre introductif de la thèse. Il est nécessaire de mieux comprendre ces problèmes de marché et le rôle des politiques publiques afin de les améliorer. Le chapitre 2 s’intéresse aux choix de prévention dans le contexte du développement des villes. A l’aide d’un modèle d’économie urbaine, il montre que des zones plus risquées sont développées près du centre-ville que loin du centre-ville, l’investissement dans la résilience des bâtiments permet de développer des villes plus concentrées et les zones plus risquées sont moins densément peuplées et génèrent plus de prévention. De plus, les subventions à l’assurance mènent à une exposition excessive aux risques à travers une augmentation de la densité dans les zones les plus risquées et une baisse générale de la résilience. Cette analyse illustre les effets négatifs des subventions et le rôle que peuvent jouer les politiques publiques urbaines telles que les restrictions de densité ou les codes de construction. Les chapitres suivants abordent la problématique du partage des risques dans le contexte de corrélation des risques, caractéristique majeure des risques de catastrophes naturelles. A l’aide d’un modèle d’économie avec risques individuels potentiellement corrélés, le chapitre 3 démontre qu’une allocation Pareto-optimale des risques peut être atteinte avec des compagnies d’assurance en compétition et un nombre restreint d’actifs financiers. Ce résultat, qui est valide sans imperfections de marché, nécessite en particulier que les agents soient entièrement responsables pour les contrats signés dans chaque état de la nature. En pratique, pour limiter les défauts de paiement dans les états catastrophiques, les politiques publiques requièrent que les agents aient des réserves financières. Les chapitres 4 et 5 s’intéressent à la problématique de la corrélation des risques quand ces réserves sont coûteuses. Le chapitre 4 étudie comment la probabilité d’un risque affecte le choix de couverture d’individus exposés. Il montre que les individus sont plus enclins à s’assurer pour les faibles probabilités que pour les grandes avec des coûts standard d’assurance, mais que le résultat est inversé quand des coûts dus aux réserves financières sont ajoutés. Le chapitre 5 analyse la forme optimale des contrats d’assurance quand les risques individuels sont corrélés dans une communauté. Il démontre que le contrat optimal consiste en une assurance partielle contre le risque individuel, avec une couverture plus faible dans les états catastrophiques que dans les états normaux, plus potentiellement des dividendes dans les états normaux. Le dernier chapitre conclut en ouvrant sur de nouvelles questions de recherche liées à la prévention et à l’assurance des catastrophes naturelles. / World economic losses due to natural disasters have increased faster than GDP in the last three decades because risky regions have sustained growing population and low prevention measures. Moreover, only a third of these losses are insured and the low penetration of insurance generates undesirable wealth fluctuation for affected population. In this context and in the perspective of climate change, reducing natural disaster losses and increasing insurance coverage have become main challenges for our societies, which are addressed in the present thesis. Low current levels of prevention measures and insurance coverage can be explained by the numerous market imperfections and poorly designed public policies, as detailed in the introductive chapter of the dissertation. It is thus crucial to better understand these market failures and the role of public policies to improve both of them. Chapter 2 investigates preventive behaviors in the context of city development. By featuring an urban model, it shows that riskier areas are developed nearer to the city center than further away, investment in building resilience leads to more concentrated cities and riskier areas get lower household density and higher building resilience. Moreover, insurance subsidy leads to risk over-exposure through increase of density in the riskiest areas and general decrease of resilience. This analysis highlights the negative effects of subsidization and the role that can be played by urban policies such as density restrictions and building codes. The following chapters deal with risk sharing in the context of risk correlation, a main feature of natural disaster risks. In a model of a risky economy with potential risk dependence between individuals, chapter 3 shows that Pareto optimal allocation of risks can be reached thanks to stock insurance companies in competition and a reduced number of financial assets. This result, which is valid without market imperfections, requires in particular that agents be fully liable for their contracts in each state of nature. In practice, to limit the default on liabilities in catastrophic states, public policies require agents to secure financial reserves. Chapters 4 and 5 investigate the issue of risk correlation when securing financial reserves is costly. Chapter 4 analyzes how the probability of a risk affects the purchase of insurance by risk-exposed individuals. It demonstrates that individuals are more inclined to insure for low-probability risks than for high-probability risks with standard insurance costs, but result is reversed when reserve related costs are added. Chapter 5 examines the optimal design of insurance contracts when individual risks are correlated in a community. It shows that the optimal contract consists in partial insurance against individual risk, with a lower indemnity in catastrophic states than in normal states, and potentially some dividend in normal states. The last chapter concludes by opening on further possible research related to prevention and insurance of natural disasters.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第23173号 / 工博第4817号 / 新制||工||1753(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 堀 智晴, 教授 田中 茂信, 教授 角 哲也 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

<p>Despite the fact that natural disasters have always existed, the number and intensity of natural disasters have increased. Progress has been made in preparing for natural disasters, but the consequences are still severe. This study takes on the task of identifying the features that make schools more vulnerable to natural disasters. Using a simple OLS (N=387). The study analyses the effect of natural disasters on school closures. Using six different disasters as our study area, we capture different demographic and socioeconomic features of a school impacted by natural disaster at different geographic levels: the individual school, the school district, and the Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA). The regression results show that factors such as increased disaster severity, higher levels of poverty, and larger numbers of at-risk individuals within a puma have significant positive associations with an increase in the number of days a school closes. At a practical level, understanding the impact of a disaster on school closure can depend on multiple factors and is important for local, state and federal governments. Policies must be implemented by local communities throughout the nation to increase community resilience. By understanding vulnerability factors adequately, their impact on school closure can be mitigated by increasing appropriate preparedness, efficient recovery strategies, evacuation strategies, and interpersonal awareness. Climate change and its effects, present and future, is a major concern for the whole world. Our efforts to understand and seek solutions to prevent and limit the damages rendered by natural disasters are critical to an effort to reduce the impacts of climate change in the U.S. and other affected countries. </p>

This study investigates whether in-uterus earthquake exposure causes long-term labor, human capital, and health effects. The health shock is maternal stress, which generates excessive concentration levels of cortisol in the fetal environment, negatively impacting the development of the fetus. I use multiple earthquakes between the years 1960-1980 in the setting of Colombia. In my definition of earthquake exposure, I consider both the intensity and the extent of the shaking. Difference-in-difference estimates show mixed results. I find a higher likelihood of being disabled when exposed during the first trimester and the favorable effect of more years of schooling when exposed during the final trimester. Separating the analysis by gender indicates that the effect on disability is centered around males, while results indicating favorable effects are found among females. Generally, exposure from high intensity shaking generates larger point estimates. The results are sensitive to the exclusion of specific earthquakes. In addition, when including those exposed to shaking that were either not felt or weak into the treatment group, some estimates indicate a long-term impact from such exposure. Based on these inconsistencies I am not able to make any general or causal claims.

El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo desarrollar un plan de recuperación ante desastres para una empresa peruana de telecomunicaciones, tomando como un marco de referencia a la norma americana NIST 800-34, para ello se siguió los 7 procesos de planificación de contingencias que sugiere la norma. El trabajo está compuesto por 11 capítulos, en los tres primeros capítulos se hacen un acercamiento a la organización con el fin de conocer la estructura interna en el que se explora las situaciones problemáticas que afronta la organización, así mismo se definen los objetivos que serán clave para el desarrollo de todo el proyecto, en el marco teórico se analiza a fondo los procesos de la norma y los conceptos necesarios para comprender el tema. En el capítulo 4 se desarrolla ampliamente el plan de recuperación ante desastres, para ello se hace un análisis de impacto de negocio con el que se logra determinar los tres procesos críticos del negocio, como parte de este proceso se realiza un análisis de riesgo de todos los recursos que intervienen en los procesos críticos, dicho análisis sirve de entrada para definir los seis escenarios de desastre, así mismo se desarrollaron las estrategias que permitan actuar ante dichos escenarios, se definen los recursos necesarios, los roles y responsabilidades de los equipos de respuesta, por otro lado se realizaron pruebas y ejercicios de los sistemas implementados para garantizar su eficacia ante un escenario real. Por último, se hace un análisis de los resultados y se brinda las conclusiones y recomendaciones. / This paper aims to develop a disaster recovery plan for a Peruvian telecommunications company, taking as a frame of reference the American standard NIST 800-34, for this the 7 contingency planning processes suggested by the standard were followed.  The work is composed of 11 chapters, in the first three chapters an approach to the organization is made in order to know the internal structure in which the problematic situations that the organization faces are explored, as well as defining the objectives that will be key For the development of the entire project, in the theoretical framework the processes of the standard and the concepts necessary to understand the subject are thoroughly analyzed. In Chapter 4, the disaster recovery plan is widely developed as such, for this a business impact analysis is made with which it is possible to determine the three critical processes of the business, as part of this process a risk analysis of all assets is performed that intervene in the critical processes, this analysis serves as input to define the six disaster scenarios, as well as the strategies that allow acting in these scenarios, the necessary resources, roles and responsibilities of the response teams are defined, by On the other hand, tests and exercises of the systems implemented were carried out to guarantee their effectiveness in a real scenario. Finally, an analysis of the results is made, and the conclusions and recommendations are provided. / Tesis

In February 2022 the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) published a report indicating that wildfires may become more frequent as climate changes keeps progressing. The last few years we have witnessed devastating consequences due to wildfires around the world. In 2014 Sweden was affected by one of the biggest wildfires in modern history when a total of 15 000 hectares burned down. This study investigates how municipalities in Sweden work with crisis management against wildfires. Data was collected in a questionnaire sent out to municipalities as a web-survey. The questionnaire included questions about the municipality´s ability to handle a higher frequency of wildfires and if their risk and vulnerability analysis includes wildfires. The overall response rate was 52 % (151/290) and more than half of the municipalities answered that wildfires are included in their risk and vulnerability analysis, and they think they can manage a higher frequency of wildfires. It was not possible to identify a difference in crisis management between small (&lt;16 000) and large (&gt;16 000) municipalities, and municipalities located in the southern and northern parts of Sweden, respectively. What can be seen as worrying is that there are municipalities that do not have the capacity to handle an increase in wildfires. Economics are named one of the main reasons municipalities do not prioritize these issues. Due to the development with rising temperatures and more frequent wildfires in the world, forest fires will probably be a topical research area onwards.

The damage assessment caused by floods, earthquakes, hurricanes among others phenomenons in the world are analyzed with methodologies such as "Vulnerability curves". In Peru, disasters caused by hyperconcentrated flows are alarming due to a climatic variability such as the "El Nio Costero"phenomenon. Therefore, this research has developed vulnerability curves for 1 and 2-story confined masonry buildings in Urb. San Idelfonso, Ica - Peru; linking the variables: flow depth, associated with the event produced by heavy rains at the top of the "Quebrada Cansas"caused by the "El Nio Costero"phenomenon in 2017, and the percentage of the damage based on the methodology of the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), whose formula is the repair value and total building value. The monetary amounts and items of the buildings are obtained from the RM 415-2017-VIVIENDA of the Ministry of Housing, Construction and Sanitation of Peru. The process consisted of hydrological modeling in HEC-HMS, hydraulic modeling in FLO-2D, damage percentage estimate and vulnerability curves production. Finally, the vulnerability curves for hyperconcentrated flows were contrasted with similar studies regarding curves for flooding and debris flow. The results of the investigation showed that the "El Nio Costero"phenomenon in 2017 had an economic impact of at least 1.3 million soles in Urb. San Idelfonso. In addition, at least 24 buildings had a complete damage and 21 buildings an extensive damage.

Chapter 1 – This paper analyzes the effects of extreme temperature on manufacturing output using a dataset covering the universe of manufacturing establishments in Canada from 2004 to 2012. Extreme temperature can affect manufacturing activity directly through its impact on labour productivity and indirectly through a change in demand for products. Using a panel fixed effects method, our results suggest a non linear relationship between outdoor extreme temperature and manufacturing output. Each day where outdoor mean temperatures are below -18◦C or above 24◦C reduces annual manufacturing output by 0.18% and 0.11%, respectively, relative to a day with mean temperature between 12 to 18◦C. In a typical year, extreme temperatures, as measured by the number of days below -18◦C or above 24◦C, reduce annual manufacturing output by 2.2%, with extreme hot temperatures contributing the most to this impact. Given the predicted change in climate for the mid and end of century, we predict annual manufacturing output losses due to extreme temperature to range between 2.8 to 3.7% in mid-century and 3.7 to 7.2% in end of century. Chapter 2 – In May 2011, the municipality of Slave Lake, Alberta was hit by a devastating wildfire; the second costliest natural disaster in Canada at the time. In this study, we use longitudinal income tax data from 2004-2018, to analyze the short, medium, and long-term effect of this wildfire on incomes, and related outcomes. This paper contributes to the very limited literature examining the economic effects of natural disasters on individuals. It also contributes to the discussion about the cost of natural disasters and highlights an important cost often excluded in published reports of natural disasters. Our results suggest that this event led to a decrease in total income mainly explained by a drop in employment income. Evidence of an intensive margin effect, whereby individuals are more likely to report lower earnings conditional on paid employment, is found. We also find evidence for an extensive margin effect, in which the employment rate falls for individuals over 55 years old. Chapter 3 – How do firms in the manufacturing sector respond to voluntary energy conservation program? Using data covering the universe of manufacturing firms in Canada over the period 2004 to 2012, we estimate the effectiveness of the Canadian Industry Program for Energy Conservation, the flagship federal government energy conservation program targeted at large industrial firms. We use a difference-in-difference approach, coupled with coarsened exact matching, to estimate the effect of this program on firms energy intensity, output, as well as productivity. Our results suggest that the program does not significantly affect the energy intensity of participating firms compared to non-participating firms. We also find no evidence that participant firms perform differently from non-participant firms in term of total productivity or total production. Our study results add to the evidence that voluntary programs play a limited role in transforming energy and environmental outcomes.

The aim of the project is to investigate how a residential area could be more resilient to disasters. I have explored how this could be done by reusing or developing what already exists. The intention is to show how a residential area could be strengthened by such redesign, in collaboration with the residents. The project is located at Kandidatvägen, in the southern parts of Ålidhem in Umeå. In the area, different hubs are designed, with different functions related to our basic needs such as food, water, or sleep. One of these hubs, for food production and storage without electricity, is illustrated in detail within the project. A common room (kvarterslokal) is transformed and equipped with food solutions to function without electricity. Spatially, walls are removed and folding doors are applied to the facade to create a more flexible space. The kitchen is mobile and can be used indoors and outdoors. The space is also provided with foldable furnitures and storage. In the inner courtyard, a greenhouse and a cultivation area for food production are located. The residents could gather in the food hub if an electricity interruption occurs, and in ‘normal’ times, when people can use their apartments as usual, the space could be used in a similar way as today; as a social space for different activities. But with the new design, the space will be more flexible and enhance its usage.