Destructive events such as natural disasters and terrorist attacks occur not only in developing economies but also developed economies. Consequently, the response of these economies has been observed in case of both type of events. This dissertation is a collection of essays regarding natural disasters, terrorist attacks and the macroeconomy. Specifically, I examine the response of local labor markets that reflect a wide spectrum of economies, but also have a safety-net in the form of being part of a developed country in the aftermath of a violent tornado. Further, I explore the heterogeneity in the economies response to natural disasters and terrorist attacks. Additionally, I investigate the effects of terrorism on growth and its disaggregated value added components. The first chapter focuses on the effects of tornadoes on local labor markets. I examine the change in local labor markets caused by extreme tornadoes that occur in counties of the contiguous United States. I also investigate the effect these tornadoes have on neighboring counties and evaluate the labor market response in urban and rural counties separately as well. Using a generalized difference-in-difference approach on quarterly data spanning from 1975 to 2016, I find that counties experience persistently higher wages per worker two years following a violent tornado. The effects on urban county can be observed on employment, while the effect in the rural county is observed on wages per worker. Further, evaluating the response of labor markets by sectors reveals the industrial sectors that experience increased labor market activity. The second chapter evaluates the long-run effects of natural disasters and terrorist attacks on growth and the channels through which they affect growth. Using the conceptual framework of a Solow-Swan model I examine an unbalanced annual panel of 125 countries spanning from 1970 to 2015 and find that domestic terrorist attacks, floods, and storms have a similar negative effect on growth, while transnational terrorist attacks and earthquakes have no significant effect on growth. Examining the channels through which they affect growth brings to the forefront the differences between these different types of events. I find that domestic terrorist attacks lead to increased military expenditures in their wake, while floods lead to increased non-military expenditures in their aftermath. Reviewing the data by developed and emerging economies reveals that developed economies are better able to absorb the shock of terrorist attacks as well as natural disasters. I find that although emerging economies are able to absorb the shock of transnational and domestic terrorist attacks, they experience some adverse effects from floods and storms. The third chapter examines the path of GDP growth and its disaggregated industrial, service, and agricultural sector value added components in the aftermath of two types of terrorism - transnational and domestic terrorism. Using a panel VAR model on cross country annual data from 1970 to 2015 I find that fatalities caused by neither domestic nor transnational terrorist attacks lead to a significant change in GDP growth. Examining the disaggregated industrial, service, and agricultural sector components of GDP growth reveals that even disaggregated the value added components of GDP growth experience no adverse effects from the deaths caused by transnational and domestic terrorist attacks. I also distinguish the emerging economies from the entire sample to find that GDP growth in emerging economies experience no significant effects due to the casualties of transnational and domestic terrorist attacks.

To what extent do unexpected, apolitical events affect governors’ popularity? Individuals’ attitudes towards government are often random, and executives at both the state-level and national-level are held accountable for events that they have little control over. In this study, I seek to understand how these unplanned events affect support for elected officials. Specifically, I examine the effect of the declaration of a State of Emergency on gubernatorial approval. I use an ordinary least squares (OLS) model and data from FEMA as well as the United States Officials Job Approval Ratings dataset to answer such questions. The results indicate that not only do natural and manmade disasters NOT have a negative effect on governors’ popularity, there is actually no correlation between the two variables at all. Instead, I find that relative to one another, major disaster declarations have a stronger negative effect on a governor’s approval ratings than emergency declarations. Though surprising, I suggest that these disasters simply do not affect enough individuals for a long enough time to have an impact on gubernatorial popularity.

In recent years transportation professionals have shown increasing interest in evacuation planning. With the advances in computing technologies it is possible to simulate urban transportation networks with great detail. These details from the traffic simulation model can be used for devising strategies for evacuation and emergency response in case of a disaster. This thesis describes the modeling, calibration, and validation of the VISSIM traffic simulation model coded for downtown San Jose. The network is then used to test various evacuation scenarios to assess evacuation strategies that would be effective in case of a human-caused disaster. The network modeled in the simulation software VISSIM required a large amount of data regarding network geometry, signal timings, signal coordination schemes, and turning movement volumes. Turning movement counts at intersections were used to validate the network with an empirical formula to assess the differences between observed and simulated counts. For freeways the simulation model was validated using the actual travel time information. Once the base network was validated, various scenarios were tested to estimate evacuation and emergency response vehicle arrival times. It was found that in the event of coordinated terrorist attacks (specified in the disaster scenario) simultaneously occurring at four locations in the downtown San Jose area, severe bottlenecks would result due to evacuee traffic. To alleviate the congestion, contraflow lanes should be used on Montgomery Street (which becomes Bird Avenue) to help reduce congestion. While contraflow lanes helped the situation, traffic incidents potentially resulting from all the chaos could complicate evacuations. The investigators found that reducing the number of vehicles on the road through public transit ridership would be the optimal approach, while leaving area roads uncongested for the emergency response personnel. In the scenario where 30% of the evacuees used transit at Diridon Transit Center, the travel times for the remaining evacuees, as well as the first responders, were minimized. None the less, the other scenarios were also critical to this study, since they provided a response strategy in case the transit station is affected by the attacks.

acase@tulane.edu

Natural and technological disasters impact thousands of families in the United States each year. Catastrophic events leave homelessness, unemployment, injury, and death in their wake. The cost to society is usually measured in homes destroyed, jobs lost, casualties, and expected dollar expense of recovery. There are the social, psychological, and family consequences of catastrophic stressors. Anecdotal reports suggest that among these consequences is an increase in family violence, including child abuse. This dissertation tests the hypotheses that reported and confirmed child abuse increases in the wake of natural disasters. Child Protective Services (CPS) records of several jurisdictions that have experienced natural disasters during the past decade were examined. Data were collected from counties in South Carolina impacted by Hurricane Hugo in 1989, counties in California affected by the Loma Prieta Earthquake in 1989, and parishes in Louisiana impacted by Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The numbers of reports and confirmations for a one-year period following each of these events were compared with those for the year prior to the disaster. Analyses of these data indicated statistically significant increases in child abuse reports during the first 6 months following Hurricane Hugo and the Lama Prieta Earthquake, but showed no statistically significant change following Hurricane Andrew. The study concluded that reactions to natural disasters vary for a number of different reasons. The findings from California and South Carolina indicated that there are changes in patterns of reporting and/or confirmation of child abuse following catastrophes. CPS workers in each of the impacted areas were interviewed to obtain their impressions regarding the extent and causes of these changes in reporting and substantiation. Recommendations that governmental and social service agencies dedicate resources and develop programs to address this specific problem following catastrophes were included. Future research that replicates this study and the development of methodologies that do not depend on official reports and investigations were recommended.

O objetivo desta pesquisa foi estudar a ocorrência histórica de desastres associados a enchentes/inundações/alagamentos que afetaram o município de Conde, no Litoral Norte da Bahia, no período entre 1966 e 2016, a partir do levantamento dos eventos extremos, os principais fatores deflagradores (condições de contorno) e danos e prejuízos associados, bem como da análise da percepção de risco de desastres por parte dos diferentes atores envolvidos e as estratégias de gestão do risco. A abordagem metodológica adotada foi quali-quantitativa, e contou com as seguintes etapas: (a) cadastro histórico eventos elaborado principalmente pelo método hemerográfico, que permitiu também a identificação das áreas atingidas e dos danos e prejuízos sofridos; (b) identificação das condições de contorno de cada evento - com base em variáveis hidrológicas, climatológicas e oceanográficas coletadas nos bancos de dados públicos disponíveis para a região; (c) mapa de uso e ocupação da terra com a espacialização dos setores de risco alto e muito alto previamente mapeados, em ambiente SIG, para identificação das possíveis causas antrópicas em escala local, da ocorrência dos desastres; (d) análise de percepção de risco de desastres - aplicação de questionários orientados por meio da realização de entrevistas em moradores das áreas de risco muito alto/alto; (e) avaliação da gestão de risco por parte de agentes públicos municipais e estadual - por meio de entrevistas orientadas para essa finalidade. Os resultados indicam que as causas dos desastres em Conde são naturais, de origem local e regional, mas fortemente influenciadas por ocupações inadequadas em áreas de risco, que amplificam a magnitude dos eventos e os danos e prejuízos causados por eles. Estes desastres não parecem seguir um padrão exatamente rítmico, variando sua ocorrência em intervalos entre 2 e 7 anos, porém predominado (9 vezes) os intervalos entre 3 e 4 anos, que deslocam a média geral para ciclos de 4,2 anos. Pela análise da percepção de risco de desastres ficou evidenciado que a memória seletiva ou fraca em relação à baixa frequência e à irregularidade de ocorrência dos eventos, interfere no nível de preocupação e de preparação da população e dos tomadores de decisão quanto ao enfrentamento de futuros desastres. Deste modo, recomenda-se que os gestores municipais melhorem a gestão de risco de desastres, adotando uma postura mais proativa, estabelecendo parcerias técnico-científicas com universidades e centros de pesquisa em desastres, com o objetivo de construir um aparato de monitoramentos ambientais, promover iniciativas educativas e dar suporte à implementação de medidas e ações de adaptação para o enfrentamento de futuros eventos. / The objective of this thesis is to understand the behavior of flood-related flood / flooding / flooding factors that affected the municipality of Conde (Litoral Norte da Bahia) between 1966 and 2016. This study also sought to know and analyze the perception of risks of disasters by the actors involved. Elaborating a register of extreme events, raising their boundary conditions and analyzing how subjects experience and decision makers perceive these events are steps that help the implementation of disaster risk management in municipalities that present hazardous areas, that is, with risk of disaster. In this sense, to reach the objective, it was important to follow the steps, for that the methodological strategy was the qualitativequantitative, based on a case study, based on an integrated approach of physical-natural and social variables. The use of the hemerographic method to survey the history, the analysis of hydrological, climatological and oceanographic variables, the use of GIS for spatialisation of disaster risks, questionnaire application and interviewing, and field empirical research were satisfactory and successful . The results indicate that the Conde events have local and regional boundary conditions and that occupations in high and very high risk areas can increase the magnitude of future events with greater damages and losses. These disasters do not seem to follow an exactly rhythmic pattern, varying their occurrence in intervals between 2 and 7 years, but predominate (9 times) intervals between 3 and 4 years, which shift the general average to cycles of 4.2 years. It was evidenced through the analysis of the perception that, the selective or weak memory in relation to low frequency and irregular occurrence of the events, interferes in the level of concern and preparation of the population and of the decision makers regarding the confrontation of future disasters. Thus, it is recommended that municipal managers adopt a proactive stance, and seek to establish technical-scientific partnerships with Universities and Disaster Monitoring and Prevention Research Centers and Centers (CEMADEN, Geological Survey of Brazil - CPRM, SUDEC / Bahia etc. .), with the objective of building a geotechnical and legal instrument apparatus, promoting educational actions and support for the implementation of measures and actions in the area of civil protection and defense and disaster risk management.

Past decades have witnessed evidence to large-scale upheaval caused by natural disasters. Thus, there is a need for determination of mechanisms through which natural disasters may influence growth, especially for developing countries. This paper traces the medium-short run time path of agricultural and industrial output growth response to four types of disasters in Southern and Southeastern Asian countries. Disasters considered are floods, droughts, storms and earthquakes. The empirical results suggest heterogeneous effects for disasters as well as different economic sectors. In many cases disaster impact was delayed. Generally speaking, floods and droughts have a stronger effect while earthquakes and storms have a weaker one on disaggregated output growth. Floods have a predominantly posi-tive effect while droughts have a negative one on both agricultural and industrial sectors. Storms seem to show a stronger negative effect in the agricultural sector than in industrial sector hinting at existence of short lived indirect effects. Earth-quakes, on the other hand, presented ambiguous growth responses. / No

<p>This dissertation consists of three studies exploring the effects of natural disasters in North Carolina on the longer term outcomes of children. The first study looks at the effect of prenatal natural disaster exposure on maternal health behaviors and birth outcomes for twenty cohorts of children born in North Carolina. Combining North Carolina administrative and survey data on births with disaster declarations from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) allows me to identify children who were exposed to disasters in each trimester of prenatal development. Using a county fixed effect strategy, I compare these children to other children born in the same county who were not exposed to disasters while in utero. Results indicate that prenatal natural disaster exposure, especially exposure to hurricanes, has a significant effect on some maternal health behaviors, but this study provides only limited support for the theory that natural disaster exposure negatively affects birth outcomes, as measured by birth weight and gestational age.</p><p>The second study looks at the impact of exposure to natural disasters during pregnancy on the educational outcomes of North Carolina children at third grade. A broad literature relates negative birth outcomes to poor educational performance, and a number of recent studies examine the effect of prenatal exposure to natural disasters on birth outcomes. This study takes the next step by considering how prenatal exposure affects later outcomes. The children identified in the first study as exposed to disasters prenatally are compared to other children born in the same county who were not exposed to disasters while in utero. Results suggest that children exposed to hurricanes prenatally have lower scores on third grade standardized tests in math and reading. Those exposed to flooding or tornadoes also have somewhat lower math scores. Additionally, results suggest that these negative effects are more concentrated among children in disadvantaged subgroups, especially children born to Black mothers. </p><p>The third study addresses the question of whether the disruption caused by a natural disaster has an impact on student academic outcomes in the school year during which the natural disaster occurs. The effects of disasters on school performance are important because natural disasters often constitute a major community disruption with widespread impacts on the lives of children. The educational data in this study comes from administrative records for all school districts in North Carolina. Results suggest that hurricanes have a negative overall impact on reading test scores, with the effect concentrated among middle schools. However, winter storms have a positive effect on both math and reading scores in middle school. This difference in effect and additional analysis of mechanisms suggests that mobility is more important than missed days of schools in mediating negative effects of hurricanes on school performance.</p> / Dissertation

Catastrophes such as floods, droughts and earthquakes have caused significant human and infrastructural losses throughout history. Nevertheless, researchers struggle to quantify macroeconomic impacts, and the existing literature is ambiguous in its findings. In this study I use econometric methods on panel data from Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), and find that hydrometeorological, climatological and geophysical events all affect economic growth negatively in the short run. Second, while events typically linked to climate change tend to cause negative growth shocks the same year they occur, geophysical disasters do not alter overall economic performance before the next year. With respect to future global warming, these dynamic differences give important insights for the understanding of how economies might be affected by climate change. However, by means of two stage least square methods, I do not find that negative economic shocks caused by weather related disasters increase the likelihood of armed civil conflicts. This latter result is in contrast to conclusions in much of the seminal conflict literature, but similar to findings in other recent cross-country studies that use the instrument variable approach.

Climate change has begun to affect the frequency, intensity, and duration of weather related disaster events. This trend may foster a greater probability of encountering 2 or more disaster events simultaneously, increasing the potential to deplete emergency resources. Using Canadian forest fire management as a focal point, this research has determined the extent to which forest fire resource sharing (resources being equipment, fire fighter teams, planes, etc.) has been able to mitigate the impacts of simultaneous forest fire events induced by climate change. Provincial and territorial forest fire management agencies are responsible for forest fire suppression within their jurisdictions, but when fires exceed their suppression capabilities they may request resources from other agencies using resource sharing agreements including: Compact agreements with American States, other international agreements and agreements initiated through the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center (CIFFC). If the potential for simultaneous forest fires is neglected, excess fire activity may overwhelm the resource sharing structure. A historical analysis, 2 case studies, and a survey were employed to uncover information regarding simultaneous forest fires. Moreover, an examination of other resource sharing disciplines was used to uncover new ways of approaching resource sharing issues. The results of this study show that simultaneous fire events have overwhelmed the resource sharing system (during at least two years 1998 and 2003) and that modifications are needed to prepare for the potential increase in forest fire frequency.