This thesis discusses the occurrence and evolution of natural disasters in the world and in the Czech republic. More detail it deals with floods in the Czech republic, the causes of their formation, climate changes and especially tools of coverage the damage caused by them on property of individuals. In addition to prevention, commercial insurance, public and private sources are also considered the instruments of capital market. The interest is focused on barriers of commercial insurance that reduce the level of insurance protection. Finally, this work deals also with storms in the Czech republic.

[pt] Este estudo investiga o papel do design frente a desastres naturais e parte do princípio que o design deve se ocupar de problemas complexos. Seus principais interlocutores foram Jorge Frascara - autor do livro Diseño Grafico para la gente, que defende que o fruto da atuação do design deve ser a transformação de realidades existentes em outras mais desejáveis –, Ulrich Beck – que, em seu livro Risk Society, apresenta a globalização dos riscos na sociedade contemporânea – e Adam Smith, que discorre sobre a importância da empatia nas relações humanas em obra intitulada A teoria dos sentimentos morais. Esta dissertação traz um panorama sobre desastres naturais e seus impactos sobre populações vulneráveis. Relata, também, estudo de caso realizado em lugares atingidos por catástrofes, como Nova Friburgo, região serrana do Estado do Rio de Janeiro e em Santiago de Cuba. Ao final, identifica as principais ações que precisam ser desenvolvidas antes, durante e depois fenômenos naturais de grandes proporções, apresenta meios pelos quais o design pode agir afim de minimizar os efeitos dos desastres e conclui que a sua atuação frente a esses eventos pode ser literalmente vital. Este trabalho teve como inspiração os Médicos sem Fronteiras – organização humanitária internacional comprometida com a prestação de socorro a populações em perigo e vítimas de catástrofes e conflitos, estando entre seus desdobramentos, a realização de workshops internacionais de design com foco em problemas complexos para voluntários em parceria com organizações como a Yunus Social Business e a própria MSF. / [en] This study investigates the role of design against natural disasters and assumes that design must deal with complex problems. It s main interlocutors are Jorge Frascara – author of Diseño Grafico para la gente, which argues that the objective of the design practice must be the transformation of existing realities into other ones more desirable – Ulrich Beck – who, in his book Risk society, presents the globalization of risks in contemporary society – and Adam Smith, who defends the importance of empathy in human relations in his work entitled The theory of moral sentiments. This dissertation provides an overview of natural disasters and their impact on vulnerable populations. Also reports case studies conducted in places affected by disasters such as Nova Friburgo, mountainous region in the State of Rio de Janeiro and Santiago de Cuba. At the end, identifies key actions that need to be undertaken before, during and after natural disasters, presents ways in which design can act in order to minimize the effects of disasters and concludes that it s action against these events can literally be vital. This work was inspired by the Doctors without Borders – international humanitarian organization which provides assistance to populations in distress and victims of disasters and conflicts, and among its consequences are the development of international design workshops for complex problems, in partnership with organizations such as Yunus Social Business and the DWB itself.

A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Science, School of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Johannesburg, October, 2017. / The purpose of this study was to examine how subsistence farmers in the Delta State of Nigeria employed their asset portfolios i.e. human, financial, social, natural and physical capitals to build their adaptive capacity and resilience to climate variability and change. The study was also interested in understanding the extent to which climate change risk communication facilitated the protection and adaptation of subsistence farmer’s assets in the face of extreme weather warnings. Primary data were obtained using the Participatory Climate Change Adaptation Appraisal (PCCAA), which comprises both the asset vulnerability analytical and the asset-based adaptation operational frameworks. The systems thinking approach, together with the asset vulnerability analytical framework were also used as an operational vulnerability framework to highlight the myriad factors undermining the rural poor from maximising their asset portfolios during food production. Focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews facilitated the use of the PCCAA tools. Meteorological data reinforced subsistence farmer’s perception (62%) that there has been an increase in temperature within the last decade, which have adversely affected on groundnut production. The farmers (92%) also listed heavy rainfall event and flooding as a climatic variable that impede their ability to produce cassava throughout the year. This is because their farmlands, which are generally low-lying, are always inundated for approximately four months every year. Nonetheless, the farmers still engaged in cassava production annually by adopting a strategy indigenously referred to as elelame (follow-water-go). It is important to mention that in spite of the rapidly changing climate, the subsistence farmers did not rely on Seasonal Climate Forecast (SCF) in order to determine the appropriate time to grow their food. Instead, they relied on their Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS) not limited to cloud observations, croaking of frogs and peculiar sounds made by the swamp chickens. However, the farmers acknowledged that their IKS have not been as reliable as it has always been in the past decades. Nonetheless, the farmers underlined being misled by an inaccurate scientific forecast in 2013 and, a lack of trust in the source of the forecast are some of the reasons they continue to rely primarily on IKS. With climate change expected to continue occurring at unprecedented levels in Nigeria, it is crucial to build subsistence farmers trust in SCF while simultaneously not undermining the value of their IKS. This is because there is growing consensus that if subsistence farmers continue to rely on IKS alone, the key assets that play a huge role in food production will likely be eroded. This will adversely hamper households’ ability to continue obtaining the livelihood they aggressively pursue. Thus, a useful starting point will be to generate a “unified” forecast whereby SCF compensates for the limitations of farmer’s IKS. However, for the unified forecast to make meaningful contributions to the ways in which farmers produce their food and protect their assets in anticipation of an extreme weather forecast, it must be communicated through the various mediums that the farmers rely upon to receive vital pieces of information. Keywords: Indigenous knowledge systems, seasonal climate forecast, climate change risk communication, Delta State, Nigeria. / LG2018

Les quatre chapitres de cette thèse s’attachent à répondre à deux questions de recherche.Dans un premier temps, je développe des outils théoriques et statistiques visant à mesurer la sûreté nucléaire malgré la rareté des accidents nucléaires majeurs. En particulier, j’applique des résultats de théorie de la décision afin de déterminer le coût social espéré d’un accident nucléaire majeur, en prenant en compte les attitudes individuelles envers les incertitudes qui le caractérisent. Ensuite, j’utilise des données récentes concernant des incidents de sûreté déclarés dans les réacteurs Français afin de mener une analyse statistique de l’évolution de la sûreté nucléaire au cours des 20 dernières années.Dans la seconde partie de cette thèse, j’aborde la question de l’implémentation de réglementations de la sûreté nucléaire et des politiques post-accidentelles face à des risques rares et catastrophiques. En particulier, j’évalue empiriquement l’effet d’une politique publique française encadrant la surveillance des opérateurs nucléaires par des commissions locales sur le comportement déclaratif des opérateurs et sur leur conformité avec les réglementations existantes. Je propose ensuite une analyse par la théorie des jeux des problèmes de coordination qui existent entre les stratégies de communications de crises et les politiques publiques de prévention et de compensation post-accidentelles. / The four chapters of this Ph.D. thesis follow two research axes.First, I develop theoretical and statistical tools for the measurement of nuclear safety, when rare occurrences of accidents preclude the measurement of objective probabilities of incurring harm. In particular, using recent results from decision theory, I develop a framework for the assessment of the expected social cost of major nuclear accidents that accounts for the attitude of individuals towards the uncertainties that characterize their likelihood of occurrence. Next, I provide an empirical analysis of the French nuclear safety based on a novel dataset containing all the significant safety events reported in the currently-operated French reactors. Despite their minor consequences, I show how valuable information regarding safety can be drawn from this data.In the second part of the thesis, I tackle the question of the implementation of safety regulations and disaster management strategies when risks are rare and catastrophic. I first focus on identifying the causal impact of an information-based incentive mechanism implemented in France on the levels of safety care and compliance exerted by nuclear plant managers. I then develop a cheap-talk model to analyse the coordination of disaster communication strategies with several preparedness and disaster response policies.

Desastres são eventos complexos que exigem esforços de múltiplos atores para assistirem suas vítimas em tempo hábil a minimizar as perdas de vidas e os custos sociais e materiais da região afetada. Esta dependência de ação entre diferentes atores cria entre eles uma relação de interdependência no que tange o sucesso da operação de resposta. Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar o problema da coordenação das atividades logísticas em uma operação humanitária utilizando Dinâmica de Sistemas como ferramenta de simulação e análise para verificar como os incentivos e impedimentos à coordenação interagem dinamicamente no ambiente humanitário e como sua estrutura de causa e efeito resulta em comportamentos com impactos e intensidades diferentes daqueles desejados pelos atores envolvidos. Assim, o objetivo específico deste trabalho é desenvolver um modelo de simulação que auxilie na compreensão do problema além de utilizá-lo para sugerir ferramentas que favoreçam o direcionamento do comportamento do sistema às metas de efetividade da ajuda humanitária exigidas pelos múltiplos atores envolvidos nesta. O desenvolvimento do trabalho segue uma estrutura multidisciplinar, buscando o necessário rigor do entendimento do problema tanto na análise da literatura quanto na formulação do modelo e sua utilização. / Disasters are complex events which require efforts from multiple actors to assist their victims on a timely manner to minimize life losses and social cost at the affected region. This action dependence between different actors rise an interdependence relation among them related to the response operation success. This work aims to analyse the problem of coordination of logistics activities in a humanitarian operation using System Dynamics as a simulation and analysis tool in order to verify how the drives and impediments to coordination dynamically interact in a humanitarian context and how its structure of cause and effect results in behaviors with different impact and intensity from those desired by involved actors. Therefore, the specific goal of this work is to develop a simulation model that support the problem understanding and apply it to suggest tools with potential to drive the system behavior towards the effectiveness goals required by the multiple actors in this environment. The development follows a cross-sectorial structure, willing to apply the necessary comprehension of the problem both in the literature review and in the model formulation and application.

O estudo apresentado fundamenta-se no evento extremo ocorrido em março de 1967, na Bacia do Rio Santo Antônio, no Município de Caraguatatuba, Brasil, tendo por objetivo esclarecer os reais impactos do fenômeno de debris flows, ou corridas de detritos, produzido por precipitações intensas. Os riscos intangíveis de vítimas humanas e tangíveis de danos materiais associados a tal evento na região são muito maiores nos dias de hoje, devido ao crescimento demográfico e à implantação de grandes empreendimentos industriais, como os do setor petrolífero, com reduzidos e, muitas vezes inexistentes, sistemas de defesa. Considerando tais fatores, a região necessita de estudos detalhados que possibilitem a elaboração de planos diretores mais eficazes, com objetivas diretrizes para a tomada de decisões, planos de contingência, regulação da distribuição da população, medidas estruturais mitigadoras e remediadoras. Para chegar aos resultados do estudo, foi definido o modelo digital do terreno a partir de análises topográficas, geográficas, hidrográficas e de uso e ocupação do território. A simulação de um evento similar ao ocorrido em 1967 resultou em valiosas informações para a definição de planos de evacuação, diretrizes de zoneamento, critérios de desmobilização, planos diretores para o município e implantação de obras de defesa. / The study here proposed aims to define the real impacts of the debris flows phenomenona, caused by a very intense rainfall, based on the disaster occurred in March of 1967, in Caraguatatuba, Brazil. The risk regarding mainly human casualties and material losses associated to such events in the region is higher nowadays, due to the increasing population rates and the settling of large companies such as oil industry, with reduced defense measures and works. Considering these factors, the region needs more detailed studies that will enable more effective master plans, decision making guidelines, contingency plans, population distribution regulation and structures of mitigation and remediation. In order to achieve these results, it was defined a digital terrain model through analysis of topographic, geographic, hydrographic and soil occupation data. The simulation of a similar extreme event as of 1967\'s on this model will result in valuable information to define evacuation plans, zoning guidelines, demobilization criteria, master plans and structural defenses.

Trata-se de uma análise sócio-ambiental do fenômeno de enchentes, recorrente no município de Santo André/SP, permitindo identificar, de um lado, um esforço contínuo do poder público para combater esse fator de ameaça relacionado às chuvas. E, de outro, a persistência da vulnerabilidade espacial de populações de baixa renda na localidade, em especial, em áreas marginais. A dissertação levanta problemas que estão na área do gerenciamento do desastre de enchentes, descreve os processos sociais e urbanos, demonstra as vulnerabilidades e as ações tomadas para minimizálas, verificar quais são as perspectivas futuras para as vulnerabilidades e qual é o discurso coletivo das representações sociais dos afetados para as questões do risco, dos danos imateriais, o entendimento da política aplicada para as áreas de enchente, buscando a dimensão do desastre nas percepções dos atingidos pelas enchentes e inundações. Apresenta-se, daí, uma compreensão sociológica baseada no Discurso do Sujeito Coletivo (DSC) do relato padrão dos afetados na convivência com as enchentes. A pesquisa qualitativa, realizada através de entrevista, identifica um discurso coletivo de sofrimento que, ao lado das perdas materiais, revelam a ausência de cidadania para levar adiante alternativas para a segurança do lugar frente às enchentes. A dissertação visa destacar seu valor informativo para balizar as ações de gerenciamento de risco através das ações integradas de prevenção, preparação, resposta e recuperação mais eficazes no futuro. / This dissertation is about a social-environmental analysis of the floods phenomenon in Santo André city/SP, which, on one hand, allows us to identify a non-stop effort of the public power to beat this threat related to rain and, on the other hand, the spatial vulnerability persistence of the low-income population in the region, especially, on river banks. This dissertation brings up problems that are in the area of the flood disaster management, describes the social and urban processes, shows the vulnerability factors and the actions taken to minimize them. It verifies which the future prospects for the vulnerability factors are and which the collective speech of the social representatives of the affected people is, concerning the risk and immaterial damage issues. This dissertation also verifies the understanding of the policy applied to the flood areas, analysing the disaster dimension from the point of view of the ones affected by floods. Thus we have a sociological comprehension - based on Collective Subject Speech - of the standard-report of people affected by floods. The qualitative survey identifies a collective speech of pain that, besides the material loss, reveals lack of citizenship to carry on alternatives for the local safety against floods. This dissertation aims to highlight its information value to delimit the risk management actions through more efficatious integrated actions of prevention, preparation, response and recuperation in the future.

Nos desastres catastróficos relacionados a eventos hidrometeorológicos ocorrem perdas e danos socioambientais incomensuráveis. Alguns deles têm destaque perante as autoridades que atuam no contexto da emergência e outros não. No Brasil, em geral, os animais gravemente afetados nesses desastres permanecem socialmente invisíveis. Tendo isso em conta, este estudo - que integra pesquisa bibliográfica, documental e de campo - inicia com considerações preliminares sobre a construção da racionalidade do especismo bem como do surgimento de uma preocupação política com a proteção de animais em contexto internacional de desastre. Em seguida, focaliza a dimensão sociopolítica brasileira que, com raras exceções, fundamenta a manutenção de práticas de desamparo aos animais em circunstâncias adversas. Por fim, através do caso do município de Teresópolis/RJ, destaca o protagonismo da sociedade civil organizada na proteção dos animais afetados no desastre ocorrido em 2011 bem como as tensões havidas com as autoridades locais. Conclui, destacando as contradições entre os avanços anunciados pelas autoridades de defesa civil do estado do Rio de Janeiro na proteção de animais de estimação nesse contexto de desastres e as práticas efetivas das autoridades municipais de Teresópolis. / Immeasurable social-environmental damage and losses occur in catastrophic disasters related to hydrometeorological events. Some of them have prominence to the authorities who work in the emergency context and others do not. In Brazil, in general, animals seriously affected in these disasters remain socially invisible. With that in mind, this study - which includes literature review, documentary research and field - begins with preliminary considerations on the construction of the rationality of speciesism and the emergence of a political concern for animal protection in the international context of disaster. Then, focuses on the Brazilian socio-political dimension that, with rare exceptions, grounds the maintenance of practices of abandonment of animals in adverse circumstances. Finally, through the case of the city of Teresopolis/RJ, highlights the role of civil society organizations, in the protection of animals affected in the disaster occurred in 2011, as well as the tensions with local authorities. Concludes, highlighting the contradictions between the advances announced by civil defense authorities of the state of Rio de Janeiro on animal protection, in this context of disasters, and the effective practices of municipal authorities of Teresopolis.

Esta pesquisa tem como objeto principal caracterizar a sociedade de risco e analisar a organização político-institucional de resposta à vulnerabilidade. A sociedade que constrói perigos tecnológicos e convive com os perigos naturais, estrutura-se para minimizar, reduzir ou eliminar os impactos causados por estes processos com perdas de vidas e econômicas de grandes perdas através da forma institucional denominada defesa civil. A partir das bases conceituais da teoria sociológica contemporânea, discute-se a efetividade do Estado para reduzir tais riscos e mitigar desastres, focalizando-se o caso Brasil mas, em especial, o caso do município de São Carlos/SP. Os procedimentos de pesquisa social utilizada formam: a) síntese da literatura no tema de riscos na sociologia: Anthony Guiddens, Milton Santos, Ulrich Beck, Scott Lash, Norma Felicidade da Silva Valencio, e outros; b) síntese de pesquisa na análise dos riscos no território: Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Ishoaqui Shimbo,Masato Kobiyama, Nivaldo Nale e Pedro Caballero; c) síntese de pesquisa documental e análise institucional, registros oficiais de orgãos constituintes do Sistema Nacional de Defesa Civil (SINDEC), além de documentos de instuições internacionais de proteção civil e fontes jornalísticas, e outros. Comprovou-se que existe uma baixa reflexividade na produção social do espaço e em decorrência, baixa efetividade das políticas de emergência centenárias que se repetem privilegiando um enfoque equivocado do problema e suas soluções, revelando um novo-velho desastre a cada evento. A partir dos resultados é possivel propor soluções e recomendações de políticas públicas relacionadas com a proteção civil. / This research has for main object to characterize the risk society and to analyze the politicize-institutional organization of answer to the vulnerability. The society built technological dangers and lives together with the natural dangers, it is structured to minimize, to reduce or to eliminate the impacts caused by these processes with losses of lives and economical of big sets up through the form denominated institutional civil defense. Starting from the conceptual bases of the contemporary sociological theory, the effectiveness of the state is discussed to reduce such risks and to mitigate disasters, being focalized the case Brazil but, especially, the case of the municipal district of São Carlos/SP. The procedures of used social research were: a) research synthesis of the literature in the used social theme were: Anthony Guiddens, Milton Santos, Ulrich Beck, Scott Lash, Norma Felicidade da Silva Valencio, and others; b) research synthesis in the analysis of the risks in the territory: Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Ioshoaqui Shimbo, Masato Kobiyama, Nivaldo Nale e Pedro Caballero, and others; c) research synthesis of documental research and institutional analysis, official registrations of constituent organs of the National System of Civil Defense and sources journalistic, and other. We was proven that a low reflexivity exists in the social production of the space and in consequence, low effectiveness of the centennial emergency politics that one repeat privileging a mistaken focus of the problem and your solutions, revealing a new-old disaster to each event. Starting from the results it is possible to propose solutions and recommendations of public politics related with the civil protection.

Thesis advisor: Ann W. Burgess / Background: On March 11, 2011, a 9.0-magnitude earthquake hit the islands of Japan. Subsequent tsunami waves occurred as high as 40 meters above sea level and severely destroyed the nuclear plant in Fukushima. While it is known that both natural and manmade disasters impose physical and psychological distress on affected people, the impact on people's health of indirect exposure to a traumatic event has remained to be determined. This study investigates somatic and psychological stress reactions among residents in the United States and Japan to the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster from comparative perspectives. Study design: A secondary analysis of data obtained from the mother study which examined media use and health impact among those living in the United States and Japan at the time of the disaster. Results: Two groups of participants, Japanese Americans (n=297) and Japanese (n=1142), were analyzed. Japanese Americans reported higher psychological and somatic symptoms than their counterpart in Japan. Among Japanese Americans, income, the severity of somatic symptoms, and help seeking behavior predicted 38.2% of the variance in psychological symptoms. Among Japanese, age, income, help seeking behavior, and severity of somatic symptoms predicted 31.9% of the variance in psychological symptoms related to the 311 disaster. Conclusions: It is evident that indirect exposure to a traumatic event occurring in a distant place has significant adverse effects on people's physical and mental health. Therefore, clinical nurses and health care providers, especially in primary care settings, need to acknowledge the importance of screening for psychological distress among ethnic groups when a natural or man-made disaster occurs in their country of origin. Nurses can promote mental health by responding to stress related responses associated with disasters for those both directly and indirectly impacted. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2015. / Submitted to: Boston College. Connell School of Nursing. / Discipline: Nursing.