Questa tesi di ricerca si occupa del ruolo rivestito dai parlamenti nazionali italiano, britannico e tedesco. Analizza il modo in cui questi parlamenti partecipano al processo decisionale ed implementano il diritto dell'Unione europea dopo il Trattato di Lisbona. La ricerca si concentra su un'analisi comparata delle leggi, delle procedure e consuetudini parlamentari al fine di esaminare il ruolo rivestito dai parlamenti nazionali nel contesto europeo. Il nuovo quadro giuridico previsto dal Trattato di Lisbona promuove la creazione di un sistema parlamentare integrato, basato sulle istituzioni europee e sui parlamenti nazionali cui è attribuito un ruolo più incisivo nel processo decisionale europeo, nella convinzione che un loro maggiore coinvolgimento possa contribuire a garantire un livello più efficace di democrazia nel funzionamento complessivo dell'Unione. I parlamenti nazionali possono contribuire a rendere l'U.E. più o meno efficiente. Essi sono chiamati a svolgere un ruolo rilevante nel processo legislativo europeo, in particolare nella fase di formazione delle politiche e del diritto dell’Unione europea (c.d. fase ascendente) e nel monitoraggio dell'esecuzione del principio di sussidiarietà. Il Trattato di Lisbona introduce norme di partecipazione diretta dei parlamenti nazionali nel processo legislativo europeo, trasformandoli in "guardians of subsidiarity". Il Trattato di Lisbona e i relativi Protocolli riconoscono il ruolo della cooperazione interparlamentare, affidando ai parlamenti nazionali il compito di promuovere e organizzare la sua realizzazione all'interno dell'Unione europea. In questa prospettiva le competenze delle commissioni specializzate in affari europei e della COSAC (Conference of Parliamentary Committees for Union Affairs of Parliaments of the European Union) sono ulteriormente potenziate. / This research thesis deals with the role of national parliaments in Italy, United Kingdom and Germany. It analyses the way in which these Parliaments participate in the European Union and implement the Law of the European Union after the Treaty of Lisbon. The research focuses on a comparative analysis of parliamentary procedures, instruments, and practices in order to examine the respective roles of the European Institutions and the national parliaments within the European framework. The new legal framework laid down the Treaty of Lisbon encourages the creation of an integrated parliamentary system, based on the European Parliament and on the national parliaments which are assigned a more incisive role in the European decision-making process, in the belief that these innovations may contribute to guaranteeing a more effective level of democracy in the overall functioning of the Union. The national parliaments can contribute to making Europe more or less effective. They will be called on to play a more important role in the European law-making process, specifically in the pre-legislative dialogue with European institutions and particularly in the monitoring of the enforcement of the subsidiarity principle in European legislation proposals. The Treaty of Lisbon regulations introduce direct participation of national parliaments in the European law-making process, transforming them into the "guardians of subsidiarity". The Treaty of Lisbon and the related protocols recognise and encourage interparliamentary cooperation, entrusting national parliaments with the task of promoting and organising its achievement within the European Union. In this perspective, the competences of the Conference of Community and European Affairs Committees of Parliaments of the European Union (COSAC) are further enhanced. In this thesis, the reasons for overall inclusion of national parliaments in the European Union activities are analysed. The role of national parliaments in the EU according to the specific provisions of the EU treaties is also discussed and the largest part of the work is devoted to the ex ante subsidiarity principle control mechanism (the Early Warning System), which gives the right for the national parliaments to influence the EU legislative process.

國際研究中雖有針對國家級的銀行脆弱性作分析，卻並未定義或預測台灣系統性危機，本研究在這樣的背景下，決定建構台灣本土的銀行業預警系統，建立銀行危機的領先指標，希望不只順應國際潮流，更能發展適合台灣特殊性的模型。本研究利用貝氏網路模型的特殊性: (1)事後值(2)機率特性，以個體化資料著手，建構一總體性模型。故研究者能確切了解個別銀行財務狀況，對個別銀行發出預警。事後值的特性使研究者能同時考慮多項財務比率。另外，利用機率特性，可幫助研究者了解危機的程度，且能做總體的延伸運用。 本研究發展出兩種方法建構總體模型。第一種為百分比法，以危機銀行佔總銀行個數的比率為基礎；第二種為加權平均法，讓機率值高者有較大權數，機率小者有較小權數去建立一加權平均機率值。 將本研究的推論結果和「台灣金融服務業聯合總會委託計畫-台灣金融危機領先指標之研究」比較，顯示本模型的兩種方法皆與危機之發生有相同趨勢，而考慮危機訊號的設定後，方法二加權平均法顯然具備較佳的預測結果。此外相較總體面衝擊產生的危機，本模型在預測能力上，對來自銀行個體面造成的危機預測明顯較優異。 / International organizations defined and predicted country bank crises events without Taiwan, but they happened in Taiwan in the past twenty years. We construct the early warning system for banking crises in Taiwan and develop the specific model suited to our country. Using Bayesian Model’s specialities: (1) posterior value; (2) probability, we build a systematic model based on microeconomic data. So researcher can understand all financial conditions and predict the financial distresses of individual banks. The concept of posteriority lets researchers can consider a lot of financial ratio at the same time. The characteristic of probability makes researcher to extend the model to macroeconomic. We develop two methods to build systematic model. One is Percentage method which is based on the percentage of financial distress banks to all banks. The other one is weighted average method which used large weight in financial distress bank and small weight in financial sound banks. Comparing our results with the report that Taiwan Financial Services Roundtable issued in 2009, our methods have distress trends which link with crisis directly. But weighted average method has a better predict power than percentage method after considering the signals of distress we specify. Besides, our model has a stronger predictive power in crises from individual effect than crises from macroeconomic shocks.

本財務預警模型研究延續Shumway(2001)年所提出的離散型風險模型(Discrete-time Hazard Model)架構，即Shumway 所稱之多期邏輯斯迴歸模型(Multiperiod logistic regression model) ，來建立銀行財務預警模型。不同於Shumway所提出的Log 基期風險式，研究者根據實際財務危機發生機率圖提出Quadratic 基期風險式。由於離散型風險模型考量與時間相依共變量(Time-dependent covariate)，該模型可以納入隨時間變動的的市場與總體變數，這是單期模型無法達到的。實證結果顯示，不論是否有加入總體與市場變數，Quadratic 基期風險式離散型模型在樣本內檢測表現都比單期模型與Log 基期風險式離散型模型好，研究亦顯示樣本外的預測Quadratic基期風險式在大多數情況都優於Log 基期風險式與單期模型 / This paper continues Shumway(2001) studies on discrete time hazard model, the so called multi-period logistic regression model, to develop a bank failure early warning model . Different from log baseline hazard form proposed by Shumway, author present quadratic baseline hazard form based on the pattern of real default rate. By incorporating time-varying covariates, our model enables us to utilize macroeconomic and market variables, which cannot be incorporated into in a one-period model. We find that our model significantly outperforms the single period logit model and Log baseline hazard model with and without the macroeconomic and market variables at in-sample estimation. The improvement in accuracy comes both from the time-series bank-specific variables and from the time-series macroeconomic variables. Our research also shows that quadratic baseline hazard model outperforms Log baseline hazard model and single period logit model in out-of-sample prediction.

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Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an emerging viral zoonosis that causes frequent outbreaks in east Africa and on the Arabian Peninsula. The likelihood of RVF global expansion due to climate change and human anthropogenic factors is an important issue. The causative agent, RVF virus, is an arbovirus that is transmitted by several mosquito species and is able to infect a wide range of livestock as well as people. The infection leads to mass abortions and death in livestock and a potentially deadly hemorrhagic fever in humans. RVF has severe socio-economic consequences such as animal trade bans between countries, disruption of food security, and economic disaster for farmers and pastoralists as well as for countries. Human behavior such as direct contact with infected animals or their fluids and exposure to mosquito bites increases the risk for contracting the disease. To better understand the challenges associated with RVF outbreaks and to explore prevention and control strategies, we used the One Health approach. The local community had to be involved to understand the interaction between the environment, animals, and humans. We focused on Sudan, Saudi Arabia, and Kenya. First, we systematically reviewed the literature and then we performed cross sectional community-based studies using a special One Health questionnaire. Climatic and remote sensing data were used in combination with statistics to develop a sub-region predictive model for RVF. For both Saudi Arabia and Sudan, the ecology and environment of the affected areas were similar. These areas included irrigation canals and excessive rains that provide an attractive habitat for mosquito vectors to multiply. The surveillance systems were unable to detect the virus in livestock before it spread to humans. Ideally, livestock should serve as sentinels to prevent loss of human lives, but the situation here was reversed. Differences between countries regarding further spread of RVF was mainly determined by better economic and infrastructure resources. In Sudan, there was a lack of knowledge and appropriate practices at the studied community regarding RVF disease symptoms and risk factors for both animals and humans. The community was hesitant in notifying the authorities about RVF suspicion in livestock due to the lack of a compensation system. The perceived role of the community in controlling RVF was fragmented, increasing the probability of RVF transmission and disease. In Kenya, our study found that better knowledge about RVF does not always translate to more appropriate practices that avoid exposure to the disease. However, the combination of good knowledge, attitudes, and practices may explain why certain communities were less affected. Strategies to combat RVF should consider socio-cultural and behavioral differences among communities. We also noticed that RVF outbreaks in Kenya occurred in regions with high livestock density exposed to heavy rains and wet soil fluxes, which could be measured by evapotranspiration and vegetation seasonality variables. We developed a RVF risk map on a sub-regional scale. Future outbreaks could be better managed if such relevant RVF variables are integrated into early warning systems. To confront RVF outbreaks, a policy is needed that better incorporates ecological factors and human interactions with livestock and environment that help the RVF pathogen spread. Early detection and notification of RVF is essential because a delay will threaten the core of International Health Regulations (IHR), which emphasizes the share of information during a transboundary disease outbreak to avoid unnecessary geographical expansion.

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Zusammenschlüsse über Firmengrenzen hinweg sind mit Risiken verbunden, besonders bei Einbindung von Mitarbeitern. Ein neu entwickeltes Frühwarnsystem ermöglicht ein rechtzeitiges Eingreifen in die Kooperationsprozesse, bevor eine erfolgsmindernde Wirkung einsetzen könnte. Es basiert auf Forschungsergebnissen zu Führung und Mitarbeitermotivation in Projektgruppen und orientiert sich an den Erfahrungen von Managern bei der Gestaltung interorganisationaler Zusammenarbeit. Die informationsund kommunikationstechnische Umsetzung dient dem ökonomischen orts- und zeitflexiblen Einsatz sowie einer schnellen Rückmeldung. Inzwischen wurde das Frühwarnsystem in verschiedenen Kooperationsprojekten eingesetzt und von den Beteiligten positiv angenommen.

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