<p>Den information som företag lämnar i sina finansiella rapporter ger dess intressenter en möjlighet att analysera företagets verksamhet. Det är då av stor vikt att informationen är tillförlitlig, vilket i sin tur är beroende av egenskaperna hos det som mäts.</p><p>År 2004 kom nya normer för hur redovisning av pensioner skulle ske. En stor förändring var att företagen, istället för Finansinspektionen, skulle ta fram många av de antaganden som behövs vid beräkningen av de förmånsbestämda pensionsplanerna. Dessa antaganden kan ha en stor påverkan på företagens finanser</p><p>vilket innebär en risk att de används i earnings management-syfte.</p><p>Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka huruvida ett företags finansiella situation påverkar dess val av aktuariella antaganden vid beräkningen av de förmånsbestämda pensionsplanerna.</p><p>De kvantitativa data som undersökningen bygger på insamlades från</p><p>årsredovisningar från 75 koncerner av ett ursprungligt urval av 272. Det material som hämtades utgjordes av aktuariella antaganden samt andra finansiella variabler som rapporterades i årsredovisningarna för år 2004 och 2005. Koncernerna delades in i två grupper utifrån förhållandet mellan pensionsförpliktelsen och totala tillgångar. Hypoteserna som genererades med stöd av teorier ifrågasätter huruvida</p><p>företag med signifikanta pensionsförpliktelser använder aktuariella antaganden i earnings management-syfte. Hypotes 1 testar huruvida koncerner med signifikanta pensionsförpliktelser i genomsnitt har gjort aktuariella antaganden som, ceteris paribus, ger ett lägre nuvärde på pensionsförpliktelsen. Hypotes 2 testar huruvida</p><p>gjorda aktuariella antaganden hos gruppen med signifikanta pensionsförpliktelser, ceteris paribus, ger ett lägre nuvärde på pensionsförpliktelsen än i gruppen med osignifikanta pensionsförpliktelser.</p><p>Hypotes 1 testades med regressionsanalys och kunde påvisa ett svagt samband mellan gjorda aktuariella antaganden och soliditet. Vid testningen av hypotes 2 användes ett oberoende grupp T-test och här kunde en liten skillnad urskiljas mellan de två grupperna. De samband och skillnader som kunde observeras visade sig dock inte vara statistiskt signifikanta vilket innebär en större risk för att resultaten har naturliga förklaringar.</p><p>I studien dras slutsatsen att det inte finns ett tydligt stöd för att hävda att earnings management förekommer i redovisningen av förmånsbestämda pensionsplaner hos noterade koncerner i Sverige.</p>

<p>This thesis consists of three papers which evaluate the effects of the Adult Education Initiative (AEI) in Sweden relative to the vocational part of Labor Market Training (LMT).</p><p>Paper [I] studies unemployment incidence and unemployment duration for participants in the AEI relative to LMT. When evaluating the relative program effects on duration, one needs to take into account both the problem of selection and the fact that the outcome variable is right hand censored. The method used is an instrumental variable adaptation of the symmetrically trimmed least squares estimator. A bivariate probit model is used in order to study unemployment incidence. The results indicate a beneficial effect of the AEI relative to LMT on unemployment incidence, but longer duration in unemployment among the AEI participants.</p><p>Paper [II] uses annual wage earnings in 1999 to compare the AEI and LMT for individuals that do not continue in education following program completion. Two separate estimation methods are used, the classical selection model and the method of matching on the propensity score. The results of both methods indicate negative effects of the AEI relative to LMT on wage earnings. The earnings effect of the AEI for individuals with a weak position in the labor market is particularly poor, implying that the official target to assist those individuals appear not to have succeeded.</p><p>Paper [III] employs data for those enrolled in 1997 as well as 1998 to study the annual wage earnings of 1999 and 2000 and data on attachment to branches of employment before and after program. Data on branches of employment indicate less mobility among the AEI participants. This is largely due to a stronger attachment to the public service sector. The analysis of wage earnings of the sample enrolled in 1997, indicate that the effects on wage earnings tended to be more advantageous for the AEI in 2000 rather than 1999, possibly implying a lag in the effects of the program.</p>

<p>Background: An evaluation of analysts´ forecasting ability is interesting since their estimates constitute an important part in stock valuation and investment decisions. The recent years´ development in the stock market has lead to criticism of analysts’ deficient forecasts. </p><p>Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate analysts´ forecasting ability concerning companies quoted at Stockholmsbörsen between 1987 and 2002. We also intend to discuss possible explanations for analysts’ behavior in case of deficient accuracy. </p><p>Method: Regression analysis is used to compare consensus estimates of earnings per share to actual earnings per share. We attempt to investigate the existence of a relation between forecasting ability and forecast horizon, the volatility at Stockholmsbörsen and the industry in which the firm operates. Behavioral finance and economic incentives is used to discuss the most convincing explanations to analysts´ behavior in cases of deficient accuracy. </p><p>Result: The study indicates over optimistic forecasts and overreaction to earnings information. Analysts tend to give more accurate forecasts closer to earnings announcement. We believe that herding, economic incentives and the fact that analysts get information from the company explains a significant part of analysts’ behavior. In addition, the study shows a possible relation between more accurate forecasts and lower volatility. Concerning industries we find stronger overreaction in healthcare and heavy industry. The study shows the most exceptional optimism in consumer goods/services and IT/telecom.</p>

<p>This thesis consists of three papers that examine college choice and earnings among university graduates in Sweden.</p><p>Paper [I] analyzes how geographical accessibility to higher education affects university enrollment decisions in Sweden. The empirical findings show that the probability of enrollment in university education increases with accessibility to university education. The results also indicate that accessibility adds to the likelihood of attending a university within the region of residence. Both these findings are robust with regard to different specifications of accessibility. The empirical results furthermore indicate that the enrollment decisions of individuals with a less privileged background are more sensitive to accessibility to university education than are the decisions of individuals from a more favorable background.</p><p>Paper [II] examines the effect on earnings of graduating from five different college groups. The paper relies on selection on observables and linear regression to identify the earnings effect of college choice. Contrary to the majority of previous Swedish studies, we do not find any systematic differences in estimated earnings between college graduates from the different college groups. This finding does not only hold when considering all college graduates, but also when focusing on men and women separately as well as when considering college graduates in two specific fields of education. The results suggest that an estimator of the earnings effects of college choice that does not properly adjust for ability is likely to be substantially biased.</p><p>Paper [III] estimates the causal effect on earnings of graduating from old universities rather than new universities/university colleges. The study compares estimates from several different matching methods and linear regression. We cannot find any significant differences in earnings between graduates from the two groups of colleges. This holds for male and female sub-samples covering all majors, as well as male and female sub-samples covering two broad fields of education. The results are robust with regard to different methods of propensity score matching and regression adjustment. Furthermore, the results indicate little sensitivity with regard to the empirical support in the data and alternative specifications of the propensity scores.</p>

This thesis consists of three papers which evaluate the effects of the Adult Education Initiative (AEI) in Sweden relative to the vocational part of Labor Market Training (LMT). Paper [I] studies unemployment incidence and unemployment duration for participants in the AEI relative to LMT. When evaluating the relative program effects on duration, one needs to take into account both the problem of selection and the fact that the outcome variable is right hand censored. The method used is an instrumental variable adaptation of the symmetrically trimmed least squares estimator. A bivariate probit model is used in order to study unemployment incidence. The results indicate a beneficial effect of the AEI relative to LMT on unemployment incidence, but longer duration in unemployment among the AEI participants. Paper [II] uses annual wage earnings in 1999 to compare the AEI and LMT for individuals that do not continue in education following program completion. Two separate estimation methods are used, the classical selection model and the method of matching on the propensity score. The results of both methods indicate negative effects of the AEI relative to LMT on wage earnings. The earnings effect of the AEI for individuals with a weak position in the labor market is particularly poor, implying that the official target to assist those individuals appear not to have succeeded. Paper [III] employs data for those enrolled in 1997 as well as 1998 to study the annual wage earnings of 1999 and 2000 and data on attachment to branches of employment before and after program. Data on branches of employment indicate less mobility among the AEI participants. This is largely due to a stronger attachment to the public service sector. The analysis of wage earnings of the sample enrolled in 1997, indicate that the effects on wage earnings tended to be more advantageous for the AEI in 2000 rather than 1999, possibly implying a lag in the effects of the program.

Background: An evaluation of analysts´ forecasting ability is interesting since their estimates constitute an important part in stock valuation and investment decisions. The recent years´ development in the stock market has lead to criticism of analysts’ deficient forecasts. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate analysts´ forecasting ability concerning companies quoted at Stockholmsbörsen between 1987 and 2002. We also intend to discuss possible explanations for analysts’ behavior in case of deficient accuracy. Method: Regression analysis is used to compare consensus estimates of earnings per share to actual earnings per share. We attempt to investigate the existence of a relation between forecasting ability and forecast horizon, the volatility at Stockholmsbörsen and the industry in which the firm operates. Behavioral finance and economic incentives is used to discuss the most convincing explanations to analysts´ behavior in cases of deficient accuracy. Result: The study indicates over optimistic forecasts and overreaction to earnings information. Analysts tend to give more accurate forecasts closer to earnings announcement. We believe that herding, economic incentives and the fact that analysts get information from the company explains a significant part of analysts’ behavior. In addition, the study shows a possible relation between more accurate forecasts and lower volatility. Concerning industries we find stronger overreaction in healthcare and heavy industry. The study shows the most exceptional optimism in consumer goods/services and IT/telecom.

This thesis consists of three papers that examine college choice and earnings among university graduates in Sweden. Paper [I] analyzes how geographical accessibility to higher education affects university enrollment decisions in Sweden. The empirical findings show that the probability of enrollment in university education increases with accessibility to university education. The results also indicate that accessibility adds to the likelihood of attending a university within the region of residence. Both these findings are robust with regard to different specifications of accessibility. The empirical results furthermore indicate that the enrollment decisions of individuals with a less privileged background are more sensitive to accessibility to university education than are the decisions of individuals from a more favorable background. Paper [II] examines the effect on earnings of graduating from five different college groups. The paper relies on selection on observables and linear regression to identify the earnings effect of college choice. Contrary to the majority of previous Swedish studies, we do not find any systematic differences in estimated earnings between college graduates from the different college groups. This finding does not only hold when considering all college graduates, but also when focusing on men and women separately as well as when considering college graduates in two specific fields of education. The results suggest that an estimator of the earnings effects of college choice that does not properly adjust for ability is likely to be substantially biased. Paper [III] estimates the causal effect on earnings of graduating from old universities rather than new universities/university colleges. The study compares estimates from several different matching methods and linear regression. We cannot find any significant differences in earnings between graduates from the two groups of colleges. This holds for male and female sub-samples covering all majors, as well as male and female sub-samples covering two broad fields of education. The results are robust with regard to different methods of propensity score matching and regression adjustment. Furthermore, the results indicate little sensitivity with regard to the empirical support in the data and alternative specifications of the propensity scores.

Fundamental analysts use basic fundamentals, which generally based on available public information, to determine a firm’s intrinsic value. Forecasting future performance is one of the key elements for doing fundamental analysis, and historical results are the foundation for future forecast. The analysis of this study is conducted into two sections with case studies in the airline business. Firstly, financial ratios are analyzed to examine whether low-cost or traditional airlines better perform their operations during a certain period. The other section is undertaking fundamental analysis of the case studies to evaluate current stock prices of representative airlines based on the potential future forecast. The model using for this valuation is the Residual Earnings Model. Key assumptions of future forecasts are mainly based on their historical ratios. Other related factor such as the gross domestic product (GDP) is included in forecasting sales growth rate because it is one of the key influences in the airline business. For ratio analysis, the findings suggest that low-cost airlines perform better operations based on five years average. However, the traditional airlines improve their performances significantly in the latest fiscal year. For equity valuation, the findings show that estimates of equity values of the airlines yield inconsistent results comparing to their stock prices. Possible reasons of the difference might be the improvement in key financial ratios of the airlines.

Den information som företag lämnar i sina finansiella rapporter ger dess intressenter en möjlighet att analysera företagets verksamhet. Det är då av stor vikt att informationen är tillförlitlig, vilket i sin tur är beroende av egenskaperna hos det som mäts. År 2004 kom nya normer för hur redovisning av pensioner skulle ske. En stor förändring var att företagen, istället för Finansinspektionen, skulle ta fram många av de antaganden som behövs vid beräkningen av de förmånsbestämda pensionsplanerna. Dessa antaganden kan ha en stor påverkan på företagens finanser vilket innebär en risk att de används i earnings management-syfte. Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka huruvida ett företags finansiella situation påverkar dess val av aktuariella antaganden vid beräkningen av de förmånsbestämda pensionsplanerna. De kvantitativa data som undersökningen bygger på insamlades från årsredovisningar från 75 koncerner av ett ursprungligt urval av 272. Det material som hämtades utgjordes av aktuariella antaganden samt andra finansiella variabler som rapporterades i årsredovisningarna för år 2004 och 2005. Koncernerna delades in i två grupper utifrån förhållandet mellan pensionsförpliktelsen och totala tillgångar. Hypoteserna som genererades med stöd av teorier ifrågasätter huruvida företag med signifikanta pensionsförpliktelser använder aktuariella antaganden i earnings management-syfte. Hypotes 1 testar huruvida koncerner med signifikanta pensionsförpliktelser i genomsnitt har gjort aktuariella antaganden som, ceteris paribus, ger ett lägre nuvärde på pensionsförpliktelsen. Hypotes 2 testar huruvida gjorda aktuariella antaganden hos gruppen med signifikanta pensionsförpliktelser, ceteris paribus, ger ett lägre nuvärde på pensionsförpliktelsen än i gruppen med osignifikanta pensionsförpliktelser. Hypotes 1 testades med regressionsanalys och kunde påvisa ett svagt samband mellan gjorda aktuariella antaganden och soliditet. Vid testningen av hypotes 2 användes ett oberoende grupp T-test och här kunde en liten skillnad urskiljas mellan de två grupperna. De samband och skillnader som kunde observeras visade sig dock inte vara statistiskt signifikanta vilket innebär en större risk för att resultaten har naturliga förklaringar. I studien dras slutsatsen att det inte finns ett tydligt stöd för att hävda att earnings management förekommer i redovisningen av förmånsbestämda pensionsplaner hos noterade koncerner i Sverige.

The first oral contraceptive was introduced in the United States during the 1960s, and, subsequently, there was an increase in women’s labor force participation rates. Although the economic role of oral contraceptives is still highly debated by scholars, previous studies have found that the pill had a statistically significant impact on women’s labor force participation rates. Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Women, I will analyze how hours worked, hourly wages, weekly earnings and occupations for women were affected by oral contraceptives. By controlling for various governing statutes that affected the availability of the use and distribution of oral contraceptives in different states, I am able to provide evidence highlighting the extent of the pill’s significance. I find that early legal access (ELA) to oral contraceptives that resulted from residential states legalizing abortion before others positively and significantly affects women’s hours worked, hourly wages, weekly earnings and whether or not women entered into professional occupations.