Särskilt Betydelsefulla Områden infördes för att öka informationsvärdet i revisionsberättelsen och bidra till en ökad insikt i revisionsbranschens arbete. Det råder dock delade meningar kring vad SBO faktiskt fyller för funktion och det finns därför ett behov av att undersöka hur SBO påverkar förekomsten av resultatjustering, vilket avgör redovisningskvaliteten. Studien visar att resultatjustering är vanligt förekommande på Stockholmsbörsen, men att den minskar vid högre omfattning av periodiseringsrelaterade SBO i revisionsberättelsen. Större andel periodiseringsrelaterade SBO indikerar alltså bättre redovisningskvalitet. / Key Audit Matters was introduced to increase the informational value of audit reports and contribute to an enhanced insight of the audit process. However, there is a difference of opinion regarding the functionality and efficiency of KAM. Therefore, there is a need to investigate how KAM impacts the extent of earnings management, which decide the accounting quality.

Cash flow prediction is involved in a number of economic decisions, particularly in investment. Previous research conducted in the United States has provided inconsistency in the results of investigating accounting data, cash flow and accrual accounting data in predicting future cash flows. No published research has studied cash flow prediction in Thailand. The current study investigates the ability of accrual and cash flows accounting data to predict future cash flows of Thai listed companies. Three regression models are constructed namely earnings, cash flows, accrual components and cash flows models. In addition, cash flow ratios are investigated to predict future cash flows by using a stepwise regression. Data used in this study is collected from the financial statements of non-financial companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand from 1994 to 2002. Cash flow data are selected directly from the cash flow statements. The empirical results show that past earnings, cash flows, cash flow and accrual component of earnings can be used to predict future cash flows of Thai listed companies and cash flows have better predictive power than past earnings. Additionally, the cash flow model and the cash flow and accrual components of earnings model have better predictive power than the earnings model. The findings of testing the models in an out-of-sample period suggest that the cash flow model is a better predictor of future cash flows than the other models. Furthermore, additional year lags of accounting data can improve the predictive power of the model. However, the results indicate that cash flow ratios are not a good predictor of future cash flows. In addition, this study finds that the Asian economic crisis had an impact on the predictive power of accounting data.

Studies on earnings management usually hypothesise that managers manage accruals opportunistically. Few studies however, argue that managers can also use accruals to improve the value relevance of reported earnings to help investors better assess the firm's operating performance. While substantial evidence on managers' opportunistic behaviour on accruals has been documented in the literature, empirical evidence on the informativeness of accruals is scarce and inconclusive. The purpose of this thesis is to examine whether managers use accruals to communicate private information regarding the firm's operating performance, or as reported in the literature, use them for their own benefit. This thesis finds that on average, firms reporting high earnings accompanied by high accruals have significantly negative subsequent period stock returns suggesting that these firms manage their accounting earnings. Focusing on stock dividend issues as an incentive to opportunistically increase accruals, the results are found to be consistent with the earnings management hypothesis. Stock dividend issuing firms are reported to significantly increase accruals in the issue year followed by poor earnings and stock price performances in the subsequent year. Moreover, discretionary accruals of the issuing firms are negatively correlated with both future earnings and abnormal stock returns. This evidence attempts to complement the earnings management literature. The analysis on the incentive to decrease accruals related to share repurchases, however, does not provide sufficient evidence to suggest that managers use their discretion to decrease accruals. To investigate the hypothesis that managers use accruals to convey information regarding their firm's future profitability, this thesis employs the contemporaneous earnings and dividend announcements as the research setting. This choice was made to increase the likelihood of detecting the use of accruals as private information communication while simultaneously mitigating the likelihood of the opportunistic income smoothing hypothesis to explain the results. The evidence strongly indicates that managers use both accruals and dividend increases as their private information communication regarding their firm's future profitability. Dividend increasing firms report positive accruals which are positively correlated with future profitability. This finding contributes to the literature by providing evidence on the accrual signalling hypothesis. Overall, the results of this thesis suggest that, depending on the incentives, managers can use the discretion accorded under the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) in estimating accounting accrual, either to manage accruals opportunistically or to help investors better assess the firms' operating performance.

本研究主要在研究上市（櫃）公司上半年公告強制性財務預測的達成率與下半年盈餘管理之間的關係。當公司在上半年度公告的財務預測過份樂觀，公司在公告預測的下半年擬現金增資時，則公司會以盈餘管理的方式來令原始（上次更新）預測達到準確的目的。即探討公司上半年度財務預測達成率過高或過低之的情境下，公司是否從事盈餘管理活動以避免於下半年度更新財務預測。 本研究以盈餘達成率作為衡量篩選樣本的指標，以無母數統計MANN-WHITNEY U TEST與單因子變異數(1-WAY ANOVA)分析資料。 本研究的實證結果顯示： 一、上市（櫃）公司於上半年度未更新財務預測，其上半年財務預測達成率低者，公司有傾向以盈餘管理方式操縱應計項目以避免於下半年更新財務預測。 二、上市（櫃）公司於上半年度更新一次財務預測，其上半年財務預測達成率仍未達20﹪者，公司有傾向以盈餘管理方式操縱應計項目以避免於下半年更新財務預測，但幅度不是很顯著，可能盈餘管理並非管理當局達成財務預測的主要方式。 三、不論上市（櫃）公司於上半年度是否更新過財務預測，其上半年財務預測達成率低者，公司皆有傾向以盈餘管理方式操縱應計項目以避免於下半年更新財務預測。而上半年度未更新財務預測者又較上半年度更新一次財務預測者傾向以盈餘管理方式操縱應計項目以避免在下半年更新財務預測。

本研究係探討「上市公司季盈餘宣告」與「投信持股比例」之關係，希望瞭解季盈餘資訊對基金經理人投資決策之影響方向與程度。樣本涵蓋期間為民國八十四年第四季至八十六年第一季，以國內全體基金及其投資標的為研究對象，採用 t 檢定（單尾、雙尾）及簡單迴歸分析進行研究，實證結果如下： 一、關於「季盈餘成長率」與「持股比例變動百分比」之相關性： 就整體樣本而言，此二項變數間的關係並不顯著，但就產業別而言，「金融類股」與「其他類股」則出現顯著的結果，顯著水準分別是 1%與 5%。 二、關於「好消息」與「持股比例變動百分比」之相關性： 「季盈餘成長率」與「持股比例變動百分比」均達到 1% 的顯著水準，且後者的 t 值為證數，顯示好消息確實會引起持股比例顯著增加。 但就變動幅度的相關性加以分析，整體樣本的迴歸分析結果並不顯著，在產業類別方面，僅有「其他類股」出現顯著的狀況，達到 1%顯著水準。 三、關於「壞消息」與「持股比例變動百分比」之相關性： 「季盈餘成長率」與「持股比例變動百分比」均達到 1%的顯著水準，但後者的 t 值為負數，表示壞消息的出現反而造成持股比例顯著增加。 若就變動幅度的相關性加以分析，全體樣本迴歸分析結果達到 10%的顯著水準，至於在產業別方面，計有塑膠、營建、金融等三種產業出現顯著的結果，顯著水準分別是 10%、1%、1%。 四、關於「好消息的幅度」與「持股比例增加幅度」的分組檢定： 四組「好消息的幅度」均達到 1%的顯著水準，而四組「持股比例增加幅度」亦均達到 5%的顯著水準，顯示只要出現好消息，不論幅度大小，均會引起持股比例顯著增加。 但是迴歸分析方面，四組皆未達到顯著水準，顯示「持股比例增加的幅度」與「好消息的幅度」並不具有顯著的相關性。 五、關於「壞消息的幅度」與「持股比例減少幅度」的分組檢定： 四組「壞消息的幅度」均達到 1%的顯著水準，而四組「持股比例減少幅度」亦均達到 5%的顯著水準，顯示只要出現壞消息，不論幅度大小，均會引起持股比例顯著增加。原因可能亦為投信基金進場承接的結果。 至於在迴歸分析方面，四組皆未達到顯著水準，顯示「持股比例增加的幅度」與「壞消息的幅度」並不具有顯著的相關性，亦即只要出現壞消息投信基金就可能進場承接，但承接時買進的幅度與壞消息的幅度並未沒有顯著的相關性。 六、關於「本季盈餘成長率大於前一季」與「持股比例變動百分比」之相關性： 不論是全體樣本或細分的三組樣本（正正、負正、負負）均出現顯著的結果，除了「負正組」的顯著水準為 5%外，全體樣本與其餘二組（正正、負負）的顯著水準均為 1%。顯示投信業者相當重視上市公司盈餘改善的訊息，只要本季盈餘成長率大於前一季，不論前後二季盈餘成長率究竟是正號或負號，投信基金均會顯著增加持股比例。 七、關於「本季盈餘成長率小於前一季」與「持股比例變動百分比」之相關性： 不論是全體樣本或細分的三組樣本（正正、正負、負負）均出現顯著的結果，全體樣本與「負負組」的顯著水準為 1%，「正正組」與「正負組」的顯著水準為 5%。但四種情況的 t 值均為正數，與假說之預期正好相反，表示本季盈餘成長率小於前一季時，確實會引起投信基金進場承接。 / The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of quarterly report announcement on portfolio revision of mutual funds in the Taiwan stock market. Based on economics of information, mutual fund can be considered as a professional investor in the market such that management of mutual fund wold apply his (her) professional knowledge to forecast the realized number of earnings this period. Therefore, this study hypothesizes that mutual funds would response to the announcement of quarterly earnings earlier than other investors such that the porfolio of mutual fund would accord the announcement to make proper revision. The findings of this study can be summarized as follows. ● Except for financial servics and others industry groups, the relationship between the announcement of quarterly earnings and porfolio revisions of mutual funds is not significant. ● The positive growth of quarterly earnings will cause the significant porfolio revisions of mutual funds; but the relationship between their magnitude is not significant. ● The negative growth of quarterly earnings will cause the reverse significant porfolio revisions of mutual funds. This results implies mutual fund may be an instrument for maintaining price; or mutual fund may consider the bad news of this period being the worst condition of the firm. ● It is robust to conclude whatever itis a good news or not, mutual fund will increase its holdings. In particular, these results hold when the next quarter has the same sign of earnings growth.

本研究的主要目的在探討是否我國新上市公司盈餘管理的現象與証券交易法上所規定的上市申請的門檻有關。我國新上市公司在上市後多有業績衰退及上市前盈餘管理之現象（曾國楊，民國84年）。這種人為的業績擴充或增加盈餘，往往是為了符合法規中上市申請的規定，特別是上市門檻的規定。倘若公司上市可以為原始股東帶來大量的邊際利益，列在可接受的範圍內，申請上市公司自有動機從事上市前業績人為擴充及盈餘管理的現象。本研究就在探討這項研究問題。 本研究以民國74年至83年間斬上市的公司為樣本，測試獲利能力較差或存續期間較短之新上市公司，是否較有動機在上市前從事盈餘管理。實証結果顯示： 就獲利能力來說，獲利能力較差之第一類上市公司在上市前會以應計項目及與營業有關之應計項目來操縱盈餘；但就第二類上市公司而言，實証結果反而與假說所預測的相反，即獲利能力較優的新上市公司反而會在上市前操縱盈餘。 就存續期間來說，第一類上市公司之實証結果大致與假說所預測的一致，但未達顯著水準，即存續期間較短之新上市公司，並不會在上市前以應計項目式與營業有關之應計項目來進行盈餘管理。就第二類上市公司來說，實証結果則與假說相反，但也未達顯著水準。 / This study aims to investigate whether the earnings management prior to IPO (Initial Public Offerings) relates to the qualifications of an IPO. In general, a firm will manage its earnings prior to IPO and have sales recess subsequent to IPO. Due to mandated IPO qualifications, perhaps, the motivation of earnings management or artificial sales expansion comes from the mandated IPO qualifications. The empirical sample period covers from 1985 to 1994 on which the empirical findings can be summarized as follows. 1. Low profitability first class firms will manage their earnings prior to IPO by the use of net accruals and net accruals from operations. In contrast, high profitability second class firms will manage their earnings prior to IPO. 2. This study cannot conclude that a younger IPO firm has a stronger incentive in managing its earnings than an older firm does.

本研究之目的在探討討強制性財務預測下,公司管理當局對於不準確度程度過高之公司,其可能之修正行為, 準確度係預計值與實際值之間的差異從會計理論之觀點而言管理當局可用盈餘管理(隱含方式),或修正預測(外在方式)為之達到預測準確性之目的,本研究首先要了解之問題便是財務預測之更新與否與盈餘管理之間的關連,其次由於新上市公司於國內外實證研究中發現其於上市前後存有盈餘管理之現象故本研究推論由上市目的所編製之財務預測亦有較現金增資者有較樂觀之傾向存在另外在我國企業之歷史性財務報表之查核會計師通常亦為該公司之財務預測核閱會計師故本研究亦推論會計師之聲譽對於準確度有影響以上三項問題均以WILCOXONTEST 及T TEST 來回答另外本研究欲建立一可以解釋預測準確性之迴歸式而以預測更新與否,會計師聲譽,財務預測發布目的及盈餘管理幅度為自變數研究結果顯示管理當局傾向於以更新預測之方式達成其準確度之目的會計師聲譽並非決定準確度之決定性因素上市目的所發佈者較現金增資所發布者保守推論其可能之原因與承銷商之連坐記點有關故閱表者可從財務預測之更新與否及發布目的兩者綜合判斷財務預測之準確性

現代化的企業型態，所有權與經營權分離，會計報表可以呈現經營績效讓投資人作為評估的依據，為二者之間的橋樑。 　　根據理性預期理論，一個理性的投資者，當公司宣告盈餘時，投資者會依盈餘宣告所帶來之新資訊調整投資行為，而這些行為即會反應在股價上，亦即盈餘新資訊會包括在股價形成之中。本研究以探討季盈餘宣告與股價變動的關係來證明季盈餘是否具有資訊內涵。 　　本研究擬依序回答下列的研究問題：1.是否季盈餘具有顯著的資訊內涵2.一至三季的資訊內涵與第四季是否有顯著差異3.是否季盈餘的資訊內涵具規模效應。 　　本研究係採t檢定來支持異常報酬異於零的假說，對於假說二及假說三則採兩樣本間的t-test來假定兩組間的平均異常報酬是否有顯著的不同。 　　實證結果如下：一、依未預期盈餘分組，UE為正的有正的異常報酬UE為負的有負的異常報酬，但由於並未達統計上之顯著水準，故未能獲得「季盈餘具有資訊內涵」之結果。二、由實證結果顯示，第四季盈餘宣告較能引起較高之異常報酬，但未達統計上之顯著水準，第四季與1-3季股價之反應，在兩組t-test之中並未達顯著，故無法獲得季盈餘具有季節效應之假說。三、以規模大小所做的t-test亦未達統計上之顯著水準，故結論亦不支持「季盈餘具有規模效應」之假說。

在財務會計準則公報第一號「一般公認會計原則彙編」發布之前，上市公司可引用的會計方法彈性極大，可源自於美國的教課書或一般公認會計原則；亦可採用一些與會計方法有關的法規之規定，例如稅法、公司法與商業會計法等。因為這些彈性的存在，管理當局在其自身最大利益的考量之下，必然會傾向選擇對其自身最為有利的會計方法來編製財務報表，提供相關的財務資訊。 　　本研究根據財務會計準則公報第一號之相關規定與公報實施之前會計實務之差異為出發點，推論財務會計準則公報第一號的發布會大大地縮小管理當局編製損益表時操縱損益或會計選擇的空間。本研究運用應計項目尺度的變動來量度管理當局會計選擇的彈性或空間的改變。 　　本研究以財務會計準則公報第一號發布前後上市公司財務報表資訊，針對其應計項目的變動情形進行實證分析獲致以下的結果： 　　1.在總應計項目上，以前後二年及三年之平均數為分析對象，發現財務會計準則公報第一號發布前之總應計項目尺度，明顯大於之後之總應計項目尺度。 　　2.在與營業有關應計項目上，以前後二年及三年之平均數為分析對象，發現財務會計準則公報第一號發布前之與營業有關應計項目尺度，明顯大於之後與營業有關應計項目尺度。 　　3.針對流動比率、營運資金、營業週期天數、負債對股東權益比、總資產等五個財務屬性，將樣本區分為二組進行敏感度分析，發現此五個變數對前二項的結果並沒有影響。 　　據以上的實證結果，本研究獲致以下結論： 　　1.財務會計準則公報第一號的發布，確使管理當局利用總應計項目進行損益操縱或會計選擇空間縮小了。 　　2.財務會計準則公報第一號的發布，確使管理當局利用與營業有關應計項目進行損益操縱或會計選擇的空間縮小了。

<p>Fundamental analysts use basic fundamentals, which generally based on available public information, to determine a firm’s intrinsic value. Forecasting future performance is one of the key elements for doing fundamental analysis, and historical results are the foundation for future forecast.</p><p>The analysis of this study is conducted into two sections with case studies in the airline business. Firstly, financial ratios are analyzed to examine whether low-cost or traditional airlines better perform their operations during a certain period. The other section is undertaking fundamental analysis of the case studies to evaluate current stock prices of representative airlines based on the potential future forecast. The model using for this valuation is the Residual Earnings Model. Key assumptions of future forecasts are mainly based on their historical ratios. Other related factor such as the gross domestic product (GDP) is included in forecasting sales growth rate because it is one of the key influences in the airline business.</p><p>For ratio analysis, the findings suggest that low-cost airlines perform better operations based on five years average. However, the traditional airlines improve their performances significantly in the latest fiscal year. For equity valuation, the findings show that estimates of equity values of the airlines yield inconsistent results comparing to their stock prices. Possible reasons of the difference might be the improvement in key financial ratios of the airlines.</p>