Canadian Prairie agriculture, in general, is expected to benefit under climate change with increasing mean temperatures projected for the immediate future. However, a number of knowledge gaps still exist. Foremost among these is the measurement of the effects of extreme climate events in a given year as well as their long-term impact on the supply of agricultural products, and also the financial situation of farms. In addition, the economic impacts of climate change on livestock operations are relatively under-studied. In particular, knowledge of the impacts on Prairie beef cattle remains more guesswork than research-based evidence. This dissertation assesses the impact of changes in the normal climate as well as the impact of climate extremes by including projected inter-annual climate variability. The economic impact of these changes on crops, beef cattle activities and the viability of farms in mixed operation settings is measured. Correspondingly, this work presents alternative adaptation measures and their likely use in managing mixed farm operations for future extreme weather events. For the analysis, two study sites are selected: (1) the Oldman River Basin of Alberta, called Pincher Creek, and (2) the Swift Current Creek Basin of Saskatchewan, called Swift Current. This study is a part of a larger project entitled “Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Extremes in the Americas” and the study sites are intended to represent the project catchment areas in the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. I develop what I call a MF-CCE model (Mixed Farm model for the economic impact assessment of Climate Change and Extremes). The MF-CCE is a whole farm simulation model that integrates models of beef cattle production, crop production and climate changes into farm level economic decisions. Simulations are conducted over a 30-year period in each climate scenario: the first of these is a baseline climate scenario from 1971-2000, and I also simulate future climate change impacts for the 2041-2070 era. The modelled farms produce enough crops, hay and pasture to support the beef cattle feed demand. Pasture demand and supply are linked by specific pasture requirements and productivity. Beef herd feed grain demand and on-farm supply are linked by a linear programming optimization algorithm. Crop mix for the market is selected through the development of a multi-year linear programming problem that maximizes the present value of gross margins. Crop and hay productivity are estimated through the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO’s) AquaCrop (version 3) modeling framework, while annual pasture productivity is estimated using the Forage Calculator for Native Rangeland obtained from the Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC). The AquaCrop is a water-driven crop simulation model, termed a crop water productivity (WP) model which simulates the yield response of herbaceous crops to water availability and use. The model is believed to be superior in simulating crop yield in the conditions where water is a key limiting factor in crop production (FAO, 2011). Summarizing the results of the simulation, prairie crop production is expected to benefit under the simulated climate change scenario. Increases in crop productivity generate about 60% higher profits in the Pincher Creek site and about 57% more for the Swift Current site. Due to increases in grain and hay productivity, more area is made available to produce grain for the market. This effectively doubles the crop net return at the Pincher Creek site and triples the crop return at the Swift Current site. A consideration of future pasture response to the climate change scenario is important in estimating climate change consequences for live beef production as well as on the economic return of a mixed farm. If the pasture productivity decreases, as assumed under the regular pasture yield scenario in the study, appropriate adaptation is necessary for the farm to benefit from future climate change. Under this scenario, beef production activities in the future are projected to gain by 50% in Pincher Creek and 40% in Swift Current compared to the baseline scenario. If pasture productivity under the future scenario increases in a manner similar to crop yield increases, existing pastureland will be enough to maintain beef herds into the future. In turn, this strategy will mitigate the cost of beef herd adaptation during climate extremes, and instead gains from beef cattle production would be 35% higher in Swift Current and 6% higher in Pincher Creek relative to gains under regular pasture yield conditions. At the farm level, with beef cattle and crop production combined, substantial gains are projected for both of the study sites. Farm net profit is estimated to increase by more than 35% at the Pincher Creek site and more than 140% at the Swift Current site under the future scenario. Income risk will also be lower in this scenario, as highlighted by a lower coefficient of variation of net farm profit. Farm financial indicators tracked in this study – farm cash flow, family cash flow, and farm net worth – all indicate that the farm’s financial position will be much better in the future climate scenario. At the Pincher Creek site, a few problematic liquidity events are forecasted under the future climate scenario, but in light of significant improvements in other economic indicators, overall, this effect is negligible. The appropriate choice of adaptation strategies for managing beef herds during extreme climate events plays an important role in determining the profitability of not only beef cattle activities, but also the financial position at the whole farm level. However, the choice of adaptations is contextual: the preference of adaptation strategy differs across activities, farms and period of study. For beef cattle activities, maintaining the beef herd without any compromise on herd size and implementing a regular feeding plan is preferred to other adaptation alternatives. At the whole farm level for the Pincher Creek site, culling the herd is preferred under the baseline scenario, while the purchasing feed option is preferred under the future climate scenario. At the Swift Current site, culling the herd is the preferred strategy under both scenarios. Commodity prices and the cost of farm inputs profoundly affect the economic position of the farm under the future climate change scenario. If commodity prices and cost of production remain the same as under the baseline scenario, future farm net profit is estimated to be 50% higher for the Pincher Creek site and about 25% higher for the Swift Current site, compared to profits under projected future prices. This result implies that the pure effect of climate change could be much higher if costs and prices do not change. Results of this dissertation indicate that average Prairie mixed farms, as represented by these study farms, remain economically viable under both the baseline and future scenarios. The results also suggest that the overall gain to these farms under a future climate change scenario would be positive. The potential severity of extreme climate events in the future, at least for the future scenario period simulated in this study, would not be significant enough to threaten the future economic viability of Prairie agriculture. However, the research also highlights the importance of policies that support farmers when they endure losses in years of extreme climate events. Further research on evaluating different Best Management Practices (BMPs) in dealing with droughts, for example, would be helpful in taking advantage of future climate change. Policy development to enhance the longer-term adaptive capacity of Prairie farmers, such as development of early warning systems for climate extremes, or the development of drought tolerant cultivars of crops and forages, would be most helpful in coping with climate extremes in the future.

Orientador: Antonio Carlos de Laurentiz / Resumo: O estudo foi realizado na UNESP – Faculdade de Engenharia – Campus de Ilha Solteira, Setor de Avicultura, tendo como objetivo analisar a retirada do suplemento mineral e vitamínico e a valorização da matriz nutricional da enzima fitase na última semana de criação de frangos de corte (42 a 49 dias), avaliando características de desempenho zootécnico (consumo de ração, ganho de peso e conversão alimentar), peso relativo do fígado e do pâncreas, parâmetros sanguíneos e análise da viabilidade econômica. Foram utilizadas 400 aves da linhagem Coob® (lote sexado - machos) criados de 42 a 49 dias, distribuídas em um delineamento inteiramente casualizado, em um esquema fatorial 2x2 (com e sem suplemento mineral e vitamínico e com e sem a inclusão de enzima fitase), totalizando quatro tratamentos com cinco repetições de 20 aves por tratamento. Nas rações formuladas com a inclusão da enzima fitase (1000 FTU), sua matriz nutricional estimada foi considerada. Os dados foram submetidos à análise de variância e quando ocorreu efeito significativo para os valores avariados as médias foram comparadas pelo teste SNK a 5% de probabilidade. Baseado nos resultados de desempenho zootécnico, pode-se recomendar a retirada do suplemento e a valorização da matriz nutricional da enzima fitase. / Abstract: The objective of this study was to analyze the withdrawal of the mineral and vitamin supplement and the valorization of the nutritional matrix of the enzyme phytase in the last week of broiler breeding (UNESP - Faculdade de Engenharia - Campus de Ilha Solteira, Poultry Sector). 42 to 49 days), evaluating characteristics of zootechnical performance (feed intake, weight gain and feed conversion), relative liver and pancreatic weight, blood parameters and economic viability analysis. A total of 400 birds of the Coob ® lineage (male - batch) were harvested from 42 to 49 days, distributed in a completely randomized design, in a 2x2 factorial scheme (with and without mineral and vitamin supplementation and with and without the inclusion of phytase enzyme ), totaling four treatments with five replicates of 20 birds per treatment. In the diets formulated with the inclusion of the enzyme phytase (1000 FTU), its estimated nutritional matrix was considered. The data were submitted to analysis of variance and when there was a significant effect for the faulty values the means were compared by the SNK test at 5% probability. Based on the results of zootechnical performance, we can recommend the withdrawal of the supplement and the valorization of the nutritional matrix of the enzyme phytase. / Mestre

With electricity tariffs in South Africa escalating at a rapid pace the demand for alternative power sources has increased. One of these renewable energy sources includes the use of biogas. Biogas is not only one of the most efficient and effective renewable energy possibilities available but also requires less capital investment as compared to other renewable sources like hydro, solar and wind and are also more economical as it involves less per unit production cost. Biogas plants have been used around the globe for numerous years, but are a relative new technology in South Africa, predominantly in the red meat industry with the use of slaughter waste as a form of biomass. Slaughter waste offers a vital possible source of renewable energy. A variation of factors makes the production of renewable energy from slaughter waste particularly appealing. The continuous rise of energy prices, waste disposal prices, and incentives for renewable energy production have increased the value of outputs from slaughter waste-to-energy systems. The primary objective of the research is assessing the economic viability of biogas plants at abattoirs in South Africa and if such a biogas plant would be beneficial to an abattoir. The research aimed to determine the viability through various capital budgeting techniques and define what the most significant calculated variables are that should be addressed in such an economic viability model. For the purposes of this study a Class A abattoir with a slaughtering capacity of 400 cattle per day was used as a case study. Biogas will be generated through anaerobic digestion and the utilising of the gas for the generation of electricity and heat by means of a CHP generator. The economic viability study contains of a base case scenario and two other possible scenarios and provides recommendations and a concluding report, based on the scenario that is the most viable. The succeeding techniques which were recognised were used to analyse the economic viability of the biogas plant: Payback Period, Discounted payback period, Net present value, profitability index, and internal rate of return. Furthermore a sensitivity analysis was done in the study with a pessimistic and optimistic outcome on key variables. The study establish that in the base case scenario a positive net present value was realised, the internal rate of return was more than the required rate of return and the payback periods was shorter than required. In this study the concept of biogas plants in the red meat industry were researched with the purpose of determining the economic viability of these plants. In determining the viability of the biogas plant the key variables that will impact the viability was also identified and discussed. Based on the data gathered and assumptions that was made it was concluded that a biogas plant will be beneficial to an abattoir and was considered economically viable. / MBA, North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

With electricity tariffs in South Africa escalating at a rapid pace the demand for alternative power sources has increased. One of these renewable energy sources includes the use of biogas. Biogas is not only one of the most efficient and effective renewable energy possibilities available but also requires less capital investment as compared to other renewable sources like hydro, solar and wind and are also more economical as it involves less per unit production cost. Biogas plants have been used around the globe for numerous years, but are a relative new technology in South Africa, predominantly in the red meat industry with the use of slaughter waste as a form of biomass. Slaughter waste offers a vital possible source of renewable energy. A variation of factors makes the production of renewable energy from slaughter waste particularly appealing. The continuous rise of energy prices, waste disposal prices, and incentives for renewable energy production have increased the value of outputs from slaughter waste-to-energy systems. The primary objective of the research is assessing the economic viability of biogas plants at abattoirs in South Africa and if such a biogas plant would be beneficial to an abattoir. The research aimed to determine the viability through various capital budgeting techniques and define what the most significant calculated variables are that should be addressed in such an economic viability model. For the purposes of this study a Class A abattoir with a slaughtering capacity of 400 cattle per day was used as a case study. Biogas will be generated through anaerobic digestion and the utilising of the gas for the generation of electricity and heat by means of a CHP generator. The economic viability study contains of a base case scenario and two other possible scenarios and provides recommendations and a concluding report, based on the scenario that is the most viable. The succeeding techniques which were recognised were used to analyse the economic viability of the biogas plant: Payback Period, Discounted payback period, Net present value, profitability index, and internal rate of return. Furthermore a sensitivity analysis was done in the study with a pessimistic and optimistic outcome on key variables. The study establish that in the base case scenario a positive net present value was realised, the internal rate of return was more than the required rate of return and the payback periods was shorter than required. In this study the concept of biogas plants in the red meat industry were researched with the purpose of determining the economic viability of these plants. In determining the viability of the biogas plant the key variables that will impact the viability was also identified and discussed. Based on the data gathered and assumptions that was made it was concluded that a biogas plant will be beneficial to an abattoir and was considered economically viable. / MBA, North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

Resumo: No Brasil um dos grandes desafios para o enfrentamento do problema dos resíduos sólidos está no campo da gestão. É necessário que a definição de uma política para o setor, articule os três níveis de governo (Federal, Estadual e Municipal), considerando questões ambientais, tecnológicas, sociais e econômicas. O compromisso com a gestão dos resíduos deve envolver setores públicos, iniciativa privada e segmentos organizados da sociedade civil. Por outro lado a grande demanda por produtos industrializados faz com que cresça o número de embalagens e descartáveis. Este crescimento reflete no aumento da degradação ambiental, elevando o consumo de matérias-primas e de lixo depositado em aterros e lixões, mas também, é renda para milhares de famílias que, não sabendo como se organizar, acabam sendo exploradas por empresas de revenda e submetidas à árdua tarefa de catadores. O objetivo desta pesquisa é analisar os resíduos sólidos urbanos gerados no município de São Manuel, fazer um estudo da quantidade coletada e do montante resultante de sua comercialização desde a criação da Associação de Catadores de Papel, Papelão e Material Reciclável de São Manuel (ACAPEL) em fevereiro de 2003 até dezembro de 2008. Verificar no período, a evolução da taxa de crescimento de preços dos 45 tipos de resíduos sólidos, bem como analisar a viabilidade econômica da Associação e, sobretudo, mostrar os ganhos ambientais e educativos para a população e o município. Esta análise desenvolveu-se a partir de uma base teórica sobre os resíduos sólidos urbanos envolvendo sua conceituação básica, os aspectos ambientais, sociais e financeiros e a gestão, gerenciamento e manejo dos resíduos sólidos urbanos. Diante dos dados levantados verificou-se que o valor do salário da ACAPEL está acima dos índices analisados / Abstract: One of the biggest challenges we face with the solid waste problems in Brazil is in the management field. It's been necessary that the definition of a policy for this area involving the threes levels of government (Federal, State and Community), taking into account environmental issues as well as technological, economical and social ones. The commitment with the management of the waste problem involves public sectors, as well as private enterprises and organized segments of the society. The great demand for industrial goods causes increase in the number of packaging and disposables. This growth reflects the increasing in environmental degradation, increasing in the consumption of raw materials and waste deposited in landfills and dumps, but it also represents income for thousands of families who, not knowing how to organize themselves, end up being exploited by retail companies and subjected to the arduous task of scavengers. The objective of this research is to analyze the solid waste generated in the municipality of San Manuel, to study of the amount collected and the amount resulting from its marketing since the inception of the Association of Collectors of Paper, Cardboard and Recyclable Material of San Manuel (ACAPEL) in February 2003 until December 2008; to check, on the period, the growth rate trend of prices of 45 types of solid waste, as well as to analyze the economic viability of the Association and, above all; to show environmental and educational gains for the population and the municipality. This analysis was developed from a theoretical base on urban solid waste involving its basic concepts, its the environmental, social and financial aspects, and the management, and the handling of urban solid waste. Considering the data obtained it was found that the value of earnings from ACAPEL is above of analysed indexes / Orientador: Alcides Lopes Leão / Coorientador: Maura Seiko Tsutsui Esperancini / Banca: Osmar de Carvalho Bueno / Banca: Angelo Cataneo / Banca: Jair Wagner de Souza Manfrinato / Banca: Sandra Fiorelli de Almeida P. Simeão / Doutor

Submitted by Irene Nascimento (irene.kessia@ufpe.br) on 2017-04-26T17:42:32Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) PRONTA Dissertação Vanessa.pdf: 1042935 bytes, checksum: 5bdc65647d310e8d46e28a299e4d3513 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-04-26T17:42:32Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) PRONTA Dissertação Vanessa.pdf: 1042935 bytes, checksum: 5bdc65647d310e8d46e28a299e4d3513 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-01 / A segurança do paciente é: “a redução, ao mínimo aceitável, do risco de dano desnecessário associado à assistência à saúde”. A Organização Mundial da Saúde estima que danos à saúde ocorram em dezenas de milhares de pessoas todos os anos no mundo. Sabe-se que as causas que levam à ocorrência de um Eventos Adversos são multifatoriais, podendo ser identificados dois grandes grupos de fatores: humanos e organizacionais. No segundo, pode-se incluir as questões de infra-estrutura, adequação e preparo das instalações para a execução das ações de segurança por profissionais e pacientes (fatores humanos). Esse trabalho objetiva analisar a viabilidade financeira de implantação das 6 metas internacionais do Programa Nacional de Segurança do Paciente em um serviço hospitalar do município de João Pessoa/Paraíba/ Brasil. Trata-se de um estudo de caso, com projeção de custos por um período de 3 anos e aplicação do VPL (Valor Presente Líquido) como método de análise de viabilidade. Obteve-se um custo total de aquisição de insumos materiais de R$ 931.296,44. O custo por paciente internado foi de R$ 51,73 e por atendimento/mês foi de R$ 3,87. O VPL obtido foi um valor positivo de R$ 3.668.554,53, o que demonstra que a proposta de implantação pode ser aceita e é viável para execução. A análise de viabilidade financeira pode subsidiar a gestão pública para a tomada de decisão na alocação de recursos para a execução de estratégias em segurança do paciente. Outros estudos como os de custo-efetividade não necessários para achados mais precisos de resultados. / Patient safety is: "minimizing the risk of unnecessary harm associated with health care". The World Health Organization estimates that damage to health occurs in tens of thousands of people every year in the world. It is known that the causes that lead to the occurrence of Adverse Events are multifactorial, and two major groups of factors can be identified: human and organizational. In the second, it is possible to include the questions of infrastructure, adequacy and preparation of facilities for the execution of safety actions by professionals and patients (human factors). This study aims to analyze the financial feasibility of implementing the 6 international goals of the National Patient Safety Program in a hospital service in the city of João Pessoa / Paraíba / Brazil. This is a case study, with projection of costs over a period of 3 years and application of NPV (Net Present Value) as a method of feasibility analysis. A total cost for the acquisition of material inputs of R $ 931,296.44 was obtained. The cost per patient was R $ 51.73 and per service / month was R $ 3.87. The NPV obtained was a positive value of R $ 3,668,554.53, which shows that the proposed implementation can be accepted and is feasible for execution. The financial feasibility analysis can subsidize public management for decision making in the allocation of resources for the execution of patient safety strategies. Other studies such as cost-effectiveness are not necessary for more accurate results.

<p> This thesis explored the feasibility of using a decision-making approach to explain changing agricultural land-use patterns in the rural-urban fringe. The change in farm ownership to a non-farmer user was assumed to reflect a change in land use. A basic objective was to identify and describe the types of elements which composed the farmers mode of perception of the decision-making context. Variations in the modes of perception were then related to an array of socio-economic characteristics of the landowner. </p> <p> The investigation confirmed the utility of the decision-making approach and confirmed the importance of the land appreciation component to the decision context. The selling price which the farmer appraised his property at was critical in determining whether the property was sold. Empirical analysis suggested a significant relationship between the selling price and the economic viability of the farm operation.</p> / Thesis / Master of Arts (MA)

O objetivo desse estudo foi avaliar o efeito da inclusão de fibra na dieta de poedeiras comerciais. Para tanto, foram utilizadas 416 poedeiras comerciais, da linhagem Lohmann LSL, distribuídas em um delineamento inteiramente casualizado em quatro tratamentos com 13 repetições de oito aves em cada unidade experimental. Os níveis de fibra estudados consistiram em dietas com a inclusão de 0,0; 0,2; 1,0 e 2,0% de uma fonte comercial de fibra. O período experimental foi conduzido da 24ª a 40ª semana de idade das poedeiras, totalizando quatro ciclos de 28 dias cada. Os dados de desempenho produtivo (produção de ovos, consumo de ração, peso e massa de ovos, conversão alimentar por dúzia e por massa de ovos e percentagem de ovos vendáveis) e a qualidade de ovos (resistência da casca, coloração da gema, altura de albúmen, unidade Haugh e espessura de casca) foram avaliados ao final de cada ciclo de 28 dias. No final do experimento, uma ave por unidade experimental foi separada, para a obtenção dos dados de morfometria intestinal, em que foi retirado o trato intestinal para as avaliações de peso de moela, comprimento de intestino e altura das vilosidades e profundidade de cripta dos segmentos (duodeno, jejuno e íleo). Os dados experimentais do desempenho produtivo obtidos pela média do período experimental foram utilizados para a realização da análise econômica. Observou-se que no desempenho produtivo, os níveis de inclusão de 1,0 e 2,0% de fibra na dieta promoveram efeito significativo positivo sobre o peso e massa de ovos. Na qualidade de ovos os diferentes níveis de fibra apresentaram melhora sobre a resistência e espessura de casca. Na análise de morfometria intestinal observou que as aves alimentadas com diferentes níveis de fibra na dieta obtiveram maior comprimento de intestino, maior altura de vilosidade no jejuno e melhor relação altura da vilosidade:profundidade de cripta no íleo. Em relação à análise econômica o nível de inclusão de 0,2% de fibra na dieta obteve resultados iguais aos da dieta controle sobre custo total, custo total por ave e entre o custo total sobre a renda total. Concluindo-se que a inclusão de 1,0 e 2,0% de fibra na dieta de poedeiras pode causar efeitos positivos sobre os parâmetros de desempenho produtivo, qualidade de ovos e no desenvolvimento da mucosa intestinal. E pelo ponto de vista econômico a inclusão de 0,2% de fibra na dieta é mais viável. / The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of fiber inclusion on the diet of laying hens. Therefore, 416 commercial laying hens of the Lohmann strain were distributed in a completely randomized design in four treatments with thirteen replicates of eight birds per experimental unit. The fiber levels studied consisted of diets with inclusion of 0,0; 0.2; 1,0 and 2,0% from a commercial source of fiber. The trial was conducted from the 24th to 40th week of birds\' age, totaling 4 cycles of 28 days each. The data of productive performance (egg production, feed intake, egg weight and mass, feed conversion per dozen and egg mass and percentage of salable eggs) and egg quality (eggshell strength, yolk color, albumen height, Haugh unit and eggshell thickness) were evaluated at the end of each 28-day cycle. At the end of the experiment, one bird per experimental unit was separated to obtain the intestinal morphometry data, in which the intestinal tract was removed for gizzard weight, intestine length and villus height and crypt depth of the segments (duodenum, jejunum and ileum). The experimental data of the productive performance obtained by the mean of the experimental period were used for the accomplishment of the economic analysis. It was observed that in the productive performance, inclusion levels of 1,0 and 2,0% of dietary fiber promoted a significant effect on egg weight and egg mass. In the egg quality the different levels of fiber presented improvement on the resistance and thickness of the shell. In the analysis of intestinal morphometry, it was observed that the birds fed different levels of fiber in the diet obtained a longer intestine length, a higher villus height in the jejunum and a better villus height ratio: crypt depth in the ileum. Regarding the economic analysis, the inclusion level of 0.2% fiber in the diet obtained results equal to the control diet over feeding cost, feeding cost per bird and between feeding cost over total revenue. It was concluded that the inclusion of fiber in the laying diet can cause positive effects on parameters of productive performance, egg quality and intestinal mucosa development. And from the economic point of view the inclusion of 0.2% fiber in the diet is more viable.

O objetivo do presente trabalho foi de analisar a viabilidade econômica de sistemas agroflorestais (SAFs) em dois ecossistemas amazônicos (terra firme e várzea) próximo a Manaus/AM. A amostra utilizada foi constituída por 21 módulos agroflorestais: 13 localizados em áreas de terra firme, no município de Manacapuru/AM; e, 08 localizados na margem direita do rio Solimões, em áreas de várzea. Os dados foram coletados via uso de questionários apropriados, visando a caracterização da amostra e para o estudo econômico proposto. Os preços dos produtos agrícolas cobrem um período de 23 anos (1980-2002) e foram fornecidos pela Secretaria Municipal de Abastecimento Mercados e Feiras (SEMAF) e Secretaria Municipal de Abastecimento e Produção Rural (SEPROR). Os padrões de variação estacional dos preços foram estimados pelo método da média geométrica móvel centralizada. A avaliação econômica das culturas perenes e semiperenes foi feita utilizando os seguintes indicadores: Valor Presente Líquido (VPL); Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR); Relação Benefício Custo (RB/C); e, Valor Esperado da Terra (VET). Os resultados obtidos mostraram que os SAFs estudados apresentaram viabilidade econômica para a pratica nos dois ecossistemas, sendo que as áreas de terra firme são mais estáveis que as áreas de várzea. / The objective of this study was the estimation of the economic viability of Agroforestry Systems (SAFs) in two Amazon ecosystems ("terra firme" and "varzeas") near Manaus/AM. The sample used had 21 observations of farmers adopting SAFs: 13 located in areas of "Terra Firme" in the Manacapuru/AM municipality; and, 8 located on the right margin of "Solimões" River, in "varzea" area. The data was collected using a properly developed questionnaire, to determine the profile of the sample and to do the economic evaluation. Selected agricultural prices, covering a period of 23 years (1980 - 2002) were collected from the Secretaria Municipal de abastecimento Mercados e Feiras (SEMAF) and Secretaria Municipal de Abastecimento e Produção Rural (SEPROR). The patterns of seasonal price variation were estimated using the centralized geometrical moving average method. The economic evaluation of SAFs was estimated using the following indicators: Net Present Value; Internal Rate of Return; Benefit-Cost Ratio; and, Expected Land Value. The results obtained indicate that the SAFs in the sample studied were economic viable on both ecosystems, and they are more profitable in "Terra Firme" than in the "Varzeas".

Produtores e empresários estão sujeitos a situações de risco de mercado como, por exemplo, o impacto da variação de preços de insumos e produtos na rentabilidade da sua produção. Este estudo avaliou a rentabilidade de um modelo simulado de produção de tilápias em tanques-rede de pequeno volume, implantado no reservatório da Usina Hidroelétrica de Ilha Solteira sob condições de áreas não onerosas, considerando as variações mensais de preços entre os anos de 2001 a 2015. A partir dos parâmetros da licitação da área aquícola foi dimensionado um sistema de produção para atender as condições impostas às áreas não onerosas. Em função da inexistência de séries históricas de preços de ração de tilápia, foram elaboradas três rações comerciais baseadas na composição das dietas dos preços dos insumos deflacionados encontrados na literatura, e estimados os preços mensais das rações; o preço de venda do pescado fresco foi determinado a partir da série de preços mensais fornecida pelo CEAGESP. A atividade não se mostrou rentável mesmo após 2006 quando houve valorização no preço de venda da tilápia. A licitação para áreas em Ilha Solteira ocorreu em 2010, quando o preço do peixe seguia valorizado mas não tornou a produção na escala considerada viável, com 100% de operações negativas e prejuízo acumulado de R$-36.767,89. Entre 2001 e 2015, a atividade teve 100% de operações negativas e prejuízo acumulado de -R$887.248,02. Uma eventual queda no preço de venda poderia piorar ainda mais a rentabilidade e mostra a necessidade do produtor em ser eficiente e adotar estratégias que minimizem seu risco e que os parâmetros técnicos dispostos na licitação sejam revisados. / Fish farmers and agribusinesses stand for market risk situations, such as the impact of price changes on the profitability of operations. This study evaluated the profitability of a simulated model of tilapia farming in small volume cages, operated in \"Ilha Solteira\" Power Plant Reservoir under cost-free zones conditions, considering the monthly price variations between the years 2001 to 2015, CEAGESP price range (CEAGESP - São Paulo State Market and Warehouses Company). A production system was simulated to meet the conditions imposed by cost-free zones bidding parameters. Because of the lack of historical data on prices of tilapia commercial feeds, the composition and deflated prices of diets found in the literature were used to estimate monthly costs of feeding management; the selling price of fresh fish was determined from the series of monthly prices provided by CEAGESP. The activity wasn\'t profitable even after 2006 after a raise in the selling price of tilapia. The bidding for aquaculture areas at Ilha Solteira reservoir occurred in 2010, when the price of fish was still valued turning scaled production viable, with all negative operations and yearly losses of US$ 10,328.89. Between 2001 and 2015, the activity accumulated only negative transactions and losses of US$ 249,226.97. A possible fall in the selling price would make profitability worse, bring the need for the fish farmers to be efficient and adopt strategies to minimize the risk of their operations and shows the need to review the technical parameters arranged in the bidding.