This dissertation is composed of three essays on labor economics. First, I examine the effect of the rapid rise in binge watching on reported crime. I use conditionally exogenous variation in the runtime of newly released Netflix Originals to identify the effect of binge watching on reported crime. I find that binge watching reduces crime contemporaneously and in the first three days that the new content is available. I find no evidence that binge watching reduces total crime reported over a nearly two week period after new content becomes available. Second, I replicate a well-known paper by Card and Dahl (2011) which examines the effect of emotional cues on violent crime. I confirm their baseline result while using their original study design from 1995–2006. I expand on their analysis by expanding the time series of their original data and using new data. I find their baseline result is not robust using out-of-sample data from 2007–2019. Third, I estimate the effect of cell phones on traffic accidents by using the expansion of the Lifeline Assistance Program as an exogenous shock to the stock of cell phones, I use a difference-in-differences quasi-experimental design to find that cell phones causally increase traffic fatalities when those cell phones are made available in states with no restrictions to cell phone use while driving and states that ban texting while driving and require hands-free calling. In addition, I find that additional cell phones have no effect when states have only one restriction on cell phone use while driving—implying that the optimal policy to reduce traffic fatalities is to ban texting while driving.

Thesis (M.A. in National Security Affairs)--Naval Postgraduate School, September 2007. / Title from title screen (viewed Feb. 19, 2008). Thesis Advisor(s): Looney, Robert. "September 2007." Includes bibliographical references (p. 77-83). Also available in print.

<div>The following dissertation presents three, stand-alone chapters on incentives and organization in the analysis of public policy. The first two chapters use administrative data from the court system of North Carolina to (1) provide evidence of strategic scheduling decisions for felony cases around judicial rotations and (2) evaluate a wide range of alternative measures of judicial severity, a common methodology used in random judge assignment for evaluation of sentencing on recidivism and in the broader field of scoring and third-party evaluation. The first chapter presents a variety of tests for strategic scheduling, finding systematic variation in the disposition of cases by judges in their election district and by defendant gender. The second chapter presents coefficients from two-stage least squares estimates of the effect of incarceration, probation, and sentence length on recidivism, finding broadly consistent results in direction, but with a significant degree of variation in point estimates and confidence interval size. In addition, alternative indexes sometimes pass and sometimes fail balance and monotonicity tests. Finally, evidence is presented that there are multidimensional elements to judicial propensities around sentence type and sentence intensity, indicating that a single severity index may miss important variations in judge types that are meaningful to defendant outcomes. The third chapter uses data from the 1992 to 2017 Censuses of Agriculture to evaluate the impact of the Land Contract Guarantee Pilot Program (LCGP) on the share of new farmers in counties across the United States. Estimates of shares of new farmers from a difference-in-differences model are then used to assess the impact of new farmers on aggregate measures of farm capital and federal program participation. In general, the LCGP has a significant and positive effect on the share of new farmers. Counties with higher shares of new farmers are less likely to participate in federal conservation programs and have lower total machinery assets. An event study approach that includes data from 2017, when the LCGP was expanded nationwide, confirms positive effects from the program, but offers conflicting views on farm capital and program participation. It is suggested that this is likely a result of additional programs put in place in the 2014 Farm Bill, and future research is proposed to address this conflicting sign.</div>

The focus of this thesis is to examine the relationship between gambling and crime in the Czech environment, where gambling is broadly available. Data about the individual gambling machines and tables together with the data about offenses in particular police districts were used in order to estimate the effect of gambling on crime. The final dataset observes 388 geographical units over the life span between April 2013 and December 2015. The study employs three estimation techniques the OLS, Poisson regression and Negative binomial regression to estimate the effect of gambling on crime. The main variable representing the size of gambling is the number of slot machines as these are the most broadly available type of gambling. The final estimated relationship between crime and slot machines is that one additional slot machine is associated with an increase in crime by 0.3-0.5% depending on the method and frequency. On the contrary, the effect of casino games, electromechanical roulettes, and dice devices on crime was found to be statistically insignificant. In addition, the study also analyses particular types of crimes, finding that gambling has an impact particularly on crimes that involve material benefits as opposed to the violent crimes. Moreover, it also conducts a what-if analysis demonstrating the estimated impact of reduction of gambling on the substantial drop of the number of offenses over the observed period was rather limited and account for 937 offenses.

No / There is a large literature on the economics of crime and punishment, yet surprisingly little attention is paid to the receipt of money for crime. “Contract killing” is surprisingly neglected not only by economists but also by social scientists in general. In this paper, I look at the case not of professional gangster “hitmen” but of individuals who have found themselves in a position where they wish to have a killing carried out. This discussion does not condone the practice any more than an economic analysis of suicide is an inducement to individuals to kill themselves. To the lay reader, the cases where an individual feels the need to pay for killing may seem to be such that rationality is not a likely form of behaviour. However, the economics of crime has adopted the use of the rationality postulate as a heuristic for all types of crime.

nÃo hà / A criminalidade à um dos principais problemas enfrentados pelo Brasil, afetando diretamente a populaÃÃo e exigindo dos governantes uma atuaÃÃo premente. Diante da problemÃtica, na busca de identificar os determinantes do crime, observa-se que alguns autores tÃm estudado o impacto dos gastos pÃblicos sobre a reduÃÃo da criminalidade. Sob tal perspectiva, e baseando-se na teoria econÃmica do crime, este trabalho propÃe-se a trazer mais uma contribuiÃÃo ao tema, focando a criminalidade no estado do CearÃ. ApÃs uma breve revisÃo teÃrica do crime e da literatura de economia do crime, à realizado um estudo empÃrico utilizando dados mensais para os crimes letais (homicÃdios), violentos contra o patrimÃnio (roubos) e furtos, procurando verificar, a partir da utilizaÃÃo de sÃries temporais, o impacto dos gastos pÃblicos estaduais em seguranÃa pÃblica, educaÃÃo e assistÃncia social nos trÃs tipos de crime para o perÃodo de 2010 a 2013. Os resultados foram contraditÃrios em relaÃÃo aos gastos governamentais com seguranÃa pÃblica, o que sugere um possÃvel problema de causalidade inversa ou que tais dispÃndios nÃo estejam sendo bem alocados. Em contrapartida, as estimativas alcanÃadas apontaram que os gastos com educaÃÃo e assistÃncia social, vistos em conjunto, foram negativos e significantes para os crimes letais, indicando que o aumento dos gastos estaduais em educaÃÃo e assistÃncia social à eficaz para reduzir o nÃmero de homicÃdios. / A criminalidade à um dos principais problemas enfrentados pelo Brasil, afetando diretamente a populaÃÃo e exigindo dos governantes uma atuaÃÃo premente. Diante da problemÃtica, na busca de identificar os determinantes do crime, observa-se que alguns autores tÃm estudado o impacto dos gastos pÃblicos sobre a reduÃÃo da criminalidade. Sob tal perspectiva, e baseando-se na teoria econÃmica do crime, este trabalho propÃe-se a trazer mais uma contribuiÃÃo ao tema, focando a criminalidade no estado do CearÃ. ApÃs uma breve revisÃo teÃrica do crime e da literatura de economia do crime, à realizado um estudo empÃrico utilizando dados mensais para os crimes letais (homicÃdios), violentos contra o patrimÃnio (roubos) e furtos, procurando verificar, a partir da utilizaÃÃo de sÃries temporais, o impacto dos gastos pÃblicos estaduais em seguranÃa pÃblica, educaÃÃo e assistÃncia social nos trÃs tipos de crime para o perÃodo de 2010 a 2013. Os resultados foram contraditÃrios em relaÃÃo aos gastos governamentais com seguranÃa pÃblica, o que sugere um possÃvel problema de causalidade inversa ou que tais dispÃndios nÃo estejam sendo bem alocados. Em contrapartida, as estimativas alcanÃadas apontaram que os gastos com educaÃÃo e assistÃncia social, vistos em conjunto, foram negativos e significantes para os crimes letais, indicando que o aumento dos gastos estaduais em educaÃÃo e assistÃncia social à eficaz para reduzir o nÃmero de homicÃdios. / Crime is a major problem faced by Brazil, directly affecting the population and demanding from the rulers a compelling performance. Aware of the problem, in order to identify the determinants of crime, it is observed that some authors have studied the impact of public expenditures on crime reduction. From this perspective, and based on the economic theory of crime, this work proposes to bring a further contribution to the subject, focusing on crime in the State of CearÃ. After a brief theoretical review of crime literature, an empirical study using monthly data for lethal crimes (homicides), violence against property (thefts) and burglaries, looking check is performed, from the use of series time, the impact of state public spending on public safety, education and welfare in the three types of crime for the period 2010-2013. Results were contradictory to the government spending on public safety, which suggests a possible problem of causality reverse or that such expenditures are not well allocated. In contrast, the estimates reached showed that spending on education and social assistance, taken together, were negative and significant for lethal crimes, indicating that the increase in state spending on education and social assistance is effective to reduce the number of homicides. / Crime is a major problem faced by Brazil, directly affecting the population and demanding from the rulers a compelling performance. Aware of the problem, in order to identify the determinants of crime, it is observed that some authors have studied the impact of public expenditures on crime reduction. From this perspective, and based on the economic theory of crime, this work proposes to bring a further contribution to the subject, focusing on crime in the State of CearÃ. After a brief theoretical review of crime literature, an empirical study using monthly data for lethal crimes (homicides), violence against property (thefts) and burglaries, looking check is performed, from the use of series time, the impact of state public spending on public safety, education and welfare in the three types of crime for the period 2010-2013. Results were contradictory to the government spending on public safety, which suggests a possible problem of causality reverse or that such expenditures are not well allocated. In contrast, the estimates reached showed that spending on education and social assistance, taken together, were negative and significant for lethal crimes, indicating that the increase in state spending on education and social assistance is effective to reduce the number of homicides.

Submitted by Antonio de Araujo Laplana (antonio.laplana@gmail.com) on 2018-06-21T23:05:22Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao com assinaturas.pdf: 2005416 bytes, checksum: 382bef7d72051ea2b91f854d3addf131 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2018-06-29T19:04:51Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao com assinaturas.pdf: 2005416 bytes, checksum: 382bef7d72051ea2b91f854d3addf131 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-07-02T20:04:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao com assinaturas.pdf: 2005416 bytes, checksum: 382bef7d72051ea2b91f854d3addf131 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-03-26 / This paper investigates the following research questions: (i) Do changes in Concealed Carry Weapon (CCW) legislation affect crime? (ii) In the case it does affect crime, are there spillover effects on crime rates in neighboring states? We explore state-level changes in gun control legislation in the U.S. from 1986 to 2014, which show a national trend of lowering the requirements for issuing a CCW permit. By employing a differences-in-differences strategy we find that lowering CCW demands raised drug-related crime rates by 15%, on average, in counties within states where the law was changed. Spillover effects in neighboring states also play an important role. In the counties across the state border (but close to it), violent and drug-related crime rates raised, on average, by 13% and 15%, respectively. We also find evidence that such spillover effects are spatial in nature. The results are robust to a variety of tests and are not driven by differential pre-trends.

Universidade Federal do Cearà / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento CientÃfico e TecnolÃgico / Utilizando novos dados da criminalidade no Brasil, foi estimado atravÃs de modelos economÃtricos, o impacto dos gastos pÃblicos em seguranÃa e assistÃncia social sobre a criminalidade nos estados brasileiros para o perÃodo entre 2001 e 2003. Em contraste com os trabalhos desenvolvidos atà o presente momento para o Brasil, que se utilizaram exclusivamente de dados de homicÃdios do ministÃrio da saÃde, quatro categorias de crime sÃo analisadas: homicÃdio, roubo, furto e seqÃestro. Baseado na teoria econÃmica do crime foi avaliado o sinal e a magnitude do efeito dos gastos pÃblicos, alÃm de fatores socioeconÃmicos, sobre o comportamento criminoso nos estados brasileiros. Os resultados obtidos com Efeitos Fixos e Primeiras DiferenÃas para considerar a heterogeneidade nÃo-observada, apontaram a concentraÃÃo de renda como um importante fator propulsor do comportamento criminoso, nas quatro categorias de crimes analisadas. Visando o controle da simultaneidade entre gasto pÃblico em seguranÃa e crime, tambÃm foram utilizadas variÃveis instrumentais, examinando se existe um poder dissuasÃrio dos gastos em seguranÃa pÃblica. Observou-se que, mesmo quando o problema de endogeneidade à levado em consideraÃÃo, nÃo existe um efeito de dissuasÃo consistente de medidas de repressÃo como despesas em seguranÃa pÃblica sobre o crime no Brasil. Na maioria das estimativas, os gastos pÃblicos em assistÃncia social apresentaram um efeito negativo e robusto sobre a criminalidade, sugerindo que este tipo de gasto à um importante fator para a reduÃÃo do crime. / Using a new panel dataset of the Brazilian States, it was estimated, by means of econometric models, the effect of social expenditure on enforcement and welfare on criminality during the period of 2001 to 2003. In contrast to past works developed in Brazil, which used basically data on murder, four kinds of offenses are analyzed: murder, robbery, larceny and kidnapping. Based on the economic theory of crime, we have evaluated the direction and the size of the effect of public spending, in addition to social factors, on the criminal behavior in the Brazilian States. Our results, using fixed effects and first differences to take unobserved effects into account, pointed out income inequality as an important factor to explain criminal behavior. Aiming to control simultaneity between spending on public safety and crime, it was still used instrumental variables, examining if there is a deterrence effect from law enforcement. It was observed that, even when the endogeneity issue is taken into account, there seems not to be a consistent deterrence effect of public spending on safety on crime in Brazil. In most estimates, public spending on welfare displayed a negative and robust effect on criminality, suggesting that this kind of expenditure is an important factor to reduce crime.

Cette thèse de doctorat étudie les liens entre prison, réinsertion et récidive. Chacun des quatre chapitres contribue au champ croissant de l’´economie du crime, en appliquant diverses méthodes économétriques sur des données françaises pour répondre à des questions essentielles pour les politiques publiques.Le Chapitre 1 explore la dynamique du risque de récidive après la sortie de prison. Cet article est le premier à documenter la forme du hasard de récidive dans le temps en France (une fonction rapidement décroissante) et `a explorer les déterminants individuels majeurs qui expliquent le niveau et la dynamique des risques dans le temps.Le Chapitre 2 étudie l’effet causal des réductions de peine sur la récidive. Cet article est le premier à tenir explicitement compte du rôle essentiel des anticipations et de l’adaptation des détenus. En exploitant la grâce collective française de Juillet 1996 comme une expérience naturelle, les résultats soutiennent l’importance du design concret des réductions de peine.Le Chapitre 3 propose la première évaluation des effets causaux d’une politique pénale majeure en France, l’introduction du Placement sous Surveillance Électronique (PSE) comme alternative aux courtes peines de prison fermes. En utilisant la mise en place progressive du PSE dans les tribunaux français, l’article trouve des effets significatifs bénéfiques du PSE sur la récidive, par rapport à l’incarcération.Enfin, le Chapitre 4 mesure l’effet dissuasif d’une incarcération plus ou moins rapide sur la délinquance future. Cet article est le premier à estimer les effets très bénéfiques de recourir à des procédures rapides pour prévenir la récidive après la libération. / This PhD dissertation investigates the linkages between prison, reentry and recidivism. Eachof the four chapters contributes to the growing field of the economics of crime, applying a series of econometric methods on French data to answer highly policy-relevant questions.Chapter 1 explores the dynamics of the risk of recidivism after prison release. This article is the first to document the shape of the hazard of recidivism over time in France (a fastlydiminishing function) and to explore the key individual characteristics explaining the level and dynamic of this risk over time.Chapter 2 investigates the causal effect of sentence reductions on recidivism. This article is the first to explicitely account for the key mediating role of anticipations and adaptation by prisoners. By exploiting the French collective pardon of July 1996 as a natural experiment, the article finds strong evidence supporting the importance of the concrete design of sentence reductions.Chapter 3 offers the first evaluation of the causal effects of a major penal policy in France, the introduction of Electronic Monitoring (EM) as an alternative to short prison sentences. Using the staged rollout of EM across courts and over time, the paper finds evidence of significant beneficial effects of EM on recidivism, compared to incarceration.Finally, Chapter 4 measures the deterrent effect of fast versus slower incarceration on future crime. This article is the first to estimate the large beneficial impact of using fast-track procedures, instead of longer procedures, on recidivism after release.

This thesis focuses on capturing causal link between alcohol consumption and one of its externalities, crime. The quasi-natural experiment of the Czech temporary ban on hard liquor following an outbreak of methanol poisonings in September 2012 provides a valuable setting for evaluation of the alcohol-crime relationship. Over the course of the prohibition, violent crime rates fell by approximately 10 %, just like the aggregate of aggravated assault, criminal threatening, vandalism and property damage. In addition, the biggest share of reduction in crime falls on weekend criminality. The number of offenders under the influence of alcohol dropped by approximately 18 % for traffic-related offences and by 28 % in non-traffic offenses. The possibility of the reduction in crime being caused by lower detection capabilities of the law enforcement was examined. The reduction in reported cases of e.g. driving under the influence might be to a large extend explained by lower detection, but it could have reduced only rates of victimless crimes. Finally, the property crime rate was not significantly affected by the intervention, except for burglaries into bars and restaurants.