Thesis (M.Sc. Agriculture (Agricultural Economics) -- University of Limpopo, 2019 / Studies have indicated that sorghum hectares in South Africa have been decreasing over the past decades. This has resulted in a huge importation of the grain sorghum by the country. This study was undertaken due to sorghum production variability in South Africa. The objectives of this study were to estimate elasticity of sorghum production to changes in price and non-price factors, as well as estimating the short-run and long-run sorghum price elasticity. The study used time series data spanning from 1998 to 2016. This data was obtained from the abstracts of agricultural statistics and verified by South African Grain Information Services. Variance Error Correction Model (VECM) was employed to address both objectives. A number of diagnostic tests were performed to ensure that the study does not produce spurious regression results. This study estimated sorghum supply elasticity using two dependent variables being the area and yield response functions as model one and two respectively. The results have shown that area response function was found to be a robust model as most of the variables were significant, responsive and elastic. Maize price as a competing crop of sorghum negatively influenced the area allocation; however, the remaining variables positively influenced the area allocation in the long-run. In this model, all variables were statistically significant at 10% and 1% in the short and long-run respectively. In the yield function, most of the variables were insignificant, not responsive and inelastic, therefore, this model was found not to be robust and hence not adopted. Thus, it was concluded that sorghum output in South Africa is less sensitive to changes in price and nonprice factors. The findings further indicated that error correction term for area was -1.55 and -1.30 for yield response function. This indicated that the two models were able to revert to equilibrium. Therefore, it was concluded that the area response function was more robust, while the yield response function was not. Furthermore, it was concluded that sorghum production was more responsive to area allocation than yield function. Based on the findings, the study recommends that amongst other methods to enhance sorghum output, producers could use improved varieties or hybrids, as this action would result in allocation of more land to sorghum production, following price change.

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Yes / This paper uses panel cointegration with a corresponding vector error correction model (VECM) to investigate the changes in the value relevance of accounting information before and after the mandatory adoption of IFRS in Germany and the UK under three different valuation models. First, a basic Ohlson model, where our results indicate that despite the value relevance of the book values of equity has declined, it has been replaced by the increasing prominence of earnings in both Germany and the UK after the switch to the IFRS. Second, a modified model, which shows that the incremental value relevance of both earnings and book values are considerably higher in the long term for firms in the UK than in Germany. Third, a simultaneous addition of accounting and macroeconomic variables in an extended model, which indicates a significant rise in the relative predictive power of the book value of equity in the UK compared with the more noticeable impact on the value relevance of earnings in Germany. Collectively, the results of these models indicate that: (i) the explanatory power of linear equity valuation models is higher in UK than in the Germany, (ii) a long-run Granger-causal relationship exists between accounting variables and share prices in common law countries like the UK. Nevertheless, the implications of our findings lie in the knowledge that the potential costs of switching to the IFRS is completely nullified within three years by the benefits arising from a reduction in information asymmetry and earning mismanagement among firms which are listed on the stock exchanges of both common law and code law-based EU countries.

The main purpose of this study is to empirically assess the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Ethiopia using quarterly dataset from 1992Q1 to 2010Q4. In doing so, an interesting policy issue arises. What is the threshold level of inflation for the Ethiopian economy? Based on the Engle-Granger and Johansen co-integration tests it is found out that there is a positive long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth. The error correction models show that in cases of short-run disequilibrium, the inflation model adjusts itself to its long-run path correcting roughly 40% of the imbalance in each quarter. In addition, based on the conditional least square technique, the estimated threshold model suggests 10% as the optimal level of inflation that facilitates growth. An inflation level higher or lower than the threshold level of inflation affects the economic growth negatively and hence fiscal and monetary policy coordination is vital to keep inflation at the threshold. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

This thesis examines the validity of the cost of carry model for pricing FTSE100 futures contracts and the relationship between FTSE100 spot and futures markets during two sub-periods characterised by different market trading systems employed by the LSE and LIFFE. The empirical work is carried out using three approaches to econometric modeling: a basic VECM for spot and futures prices, a VECM extended with a DCCTGARCH framework to account for the conditional variance-covariance structure for spot and futures prices and a threshold VECM to capture regime-dependent spot-futures price dynamics. Overall, both the basic VECM and the DCC-TGARCH analysis suggest that there are deviations from the cost of carry relationship in the first sub-sample when transactions costs in both markets are relatively high but that the cost of carry relationship tends to be valid in the second sub-sample when transactions costs are lower. This is further confirmed by the evidence of higher conditional correlations between the two markets in the second sub-sample as compared with the first, using the DCC-TGARCH analysis. This implies that the no-arbitrage cost of carry relationship between spot and futures markets is more effectively maintained by index arbitrageurs in the second period when market conditions are closer to perfect market assumptions, and hence the cost of carry model could be more reasonably used as a benchmark for pricing stock index futures. The threshold VECM analysis depicts regime-dependent price dynamics between FTSE100 spot and futures markets and leads to some interesting and important findings: arbitrage may not be practicable under some market conditions, either because it is difficult to find counterparties for the arbitrage transactions, or because there is significant risk associated with arbitrage; as a result, the cost of carry model may not always be suitable for pricing stock index futures. Furthermore, the threshold values yielded from estimating the threshold VECM reflect the average transaction costs for most arbitrageurs that are more reliable and fair than subjective estimations.

This paper focuses on analysing and modelling inflation and its dynamics in Czech Republic applying a special kind of econometric models. Firstly economic theory of inflation is mentioned - fundamental terms, measuring methods of inflation, the way Czech national bank is monitoring the inflation and obviously a short summary of historical evolution of inflation in Czech economy. In the second part of this paper two econometric concepts of modelling time series are introduced - vector autoregression models (VAR models) and volatility models, concretely ARCH and GARCH models. In connection with the VAR models, Granger causality, impulse response functions, cointegration and error correction models are described. The empirical part includes application of selected models on real time series of chosen macroeconomic indicators. The estimation outputs are interpreted and forecasts are implemented. The quality of chosen econometric models for modelling inflation in Czech Republic is discussed.

The main purpose of this study is to empirically assess the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Ethiopia using quarterly dataset from 1992Q1 to 2010Q4. In doing so, an interesting policy issue arises. What is the threshold level of inflation for the Ethiopian economy? Based on the Engle-Granger and Johansen co-integration tests it is found out that there is a positive long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth. The error correction models show that in cases of short-run disequilibrium, the inflation model adjusts itself to its long-run path correcting roughly 40% of the imbalance in each quarter. In addition, based on the conditional least square technique, the estimated threshold model suggests 10% as the optimal level of inflation that facilitates growth. An inflation level higher or lower than the threshold level of inflation affects the economic growth negatively and hence fiscal and monetary policy coordination is vital to keep inflation at the threshold. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

A segmentação dos mercados internacionais permite a existência do pricing-to-market, hipótese inicialmente formulada por Krugman (1986). O primeiro objetivo deste trabalho foi testar o pricing-to-market realizado pelos exportadores brasileiros entre 1999 e 2012 utilizando dados para 26 setores industriais. À partir do modelo de Marston (1990), a sua estratégia de identificação adotada foi expandida para ser utilizada em dados em painel e considerar a possibilidade de cointegração entre as variáveis. Modelos de correção de erros em painel foram estimados utilizando diferentes técnicas de estimação, o efeito médio da taxa real de câmbio no longo prazo é de 0.673, ou seja, um aumento de 1% na taxa real de câmbio leva a um aumento de aproximadamente 0.07% nos preços relativos. No curto prazo, o efeito médio da taxa real de câmbio é de 0.233 nos preços relativos. Então há um efeito maior da taxa real de câmbio no longo prazo que no curto prazo. Após encontrar evidências de pricing-to-market nas exportações brasileiras, este estudo testou a assimetria do pricing-to-market através do modelo de painel com parâmetros limiares proposto por Hansen (1999). Foi estudado se a assimetria ou a volatilidade cambial possuem efeitos no nível de pricing-to-market realizado. As evidências encontradas mostram que a taxa real de câmbio possui efeitos assimétricos, há um aumento do pricing-to-market com a desvalorização cambial. / The segmentation of international markets allows the pricing-to-market, hypothesis initially defined by Krugman (1986). The first objective of this work is to test the pricing-to-market held by Brazilian exporters between 1999 and 2012 using data panel for 26 industrial sectors. Using the model proposed by Marston (1990), his identification strategy has been expanded from and consider the possibility of cointegration between the variables. Panel error correction models were estimated using differents estimation techniques, the average effect of the real exchange rate in the long run is 0.673, i.e. an increase of 1% in the real exchange rate leads to an increase of 0.07% in relative prices. In the short term, the average effect of the real exchange rate is 0.233 in relative prices. So there is a higher effect of real exchange rate in the long run than the in the short term. After finding evidence of the Brazilian pricing-to-market, this study tested the asymetric pricingto-market using the panel threshold model proposed by Hansen (1999). It was examined whether the exchange rate asymmetry or the volatility have effects on the level of pricing-tomarket. The evidences shows the real exchange rate has asymmetric effects, there is an increase of brazilian pricing-to-market associated with a depreciated exchange rate.

Cette thèse étudie les déterminants de l’épargne des ménages, à la fois dans leur dimension microéconomique et macroéconomique, en coupe et en panel. L’étude de ces déterminants ne se limite pas au cas français, mais est également étendue à la zone euro, au Royaume-Uni et aux États-Unis. Le premier chapitre introductif rappelle les principaux modèles et théories de l’épargne développés depuis les années 1930, et compare les approches macroéconomique et microéconomique de l’épargne des ménages. Les principales différences entre ces deux approches sont mises en exergue, ainsi que les hypothèses qui sous-tendent le passage du niveau micro au niveau agrégé. Dans un deuxième chapitre, on teste d'abord l’homogénéité des comportements d'épargne en étudiant les liens entre taux d’épargne et revenu (courant et permanent) des ménages français, à partir des données de l'enquête INSEE Budget de famille 2011. On met ensuite empiriquement en évidence et on quantifie une épargne de précaution liée au risque sur le revenu. Dans un troisième chapitre, on s’attache à décrire et à expliquer l’hétérogénéité des comportements d’épargne à l’intérieur et entre les pays européens, à partir des déterminants socio-économiques et des variables de protection sociale. On cherche ainsi à mettre en évidence un effet d'éviction entre épargne publique et épargne privée. Le dernier chapitre exploite la dimension macroéconomique de l'épargne et de la consommation : on passe en revue les principaux déterminants de la consommation (donc de l’épargne), avec une analyse particulière de l’effet de richesse, c’est à dire l’impact du patrimoine financier et immobilier sur le comportement d’épargne. / This PhD dissertation investigates the determinants of households’ savings, both in theirmicro- and macroeconomic dimensions, on cross section and panel data. This analysis is notrestricted to the French case, but also examines the euro area, the United Kingdom and theUnited States. The introduction recalls main models and theories of savings which were developed in the 1930s, and compares the macroeconomic and microeconomic approaches of households’ savings. The main discrepancies between these two approaches are highlighted, as well as the hypotheses which underpin the aggregation of data. In the second chapter, I investigate the relationship between savings rates and (current and permanent) income to test the homogeneity of French households’ behaviours. Then I highlight and measure precautionary savings related to the income risk. In the third chapter, I describe the heterogeneity of savings behaviours within and between European countries, by analyzing social and economic determinants and social protection variables. I try to highlight a crowding-out effect between public and private savings. The last chapter is on the macroeconomic side: the main determinants of consumption (and savings) are scanned, with an emphasis on wealth effect – i.e. the effect of financial wealth and real estate wealth on savings rate.

The question of an equilibrium exchange rate has always been a debatable issue. Along with rapid growth of the Chinese economy over the past two decades, a number of studies have been undertaken to investigate whether or not the RMB exchange rate is at its long run ‘equilibrium’ level. Because the equilibrium exchange rate affects the competitiveness of a country’s economy, these studies have focused on whether or not the real exchange rate is misaligned with respect to its long-run equilibrium level. One of the main reasons for this concern is that effective management of the exchange rate system could help a country’s economy achieve internal and external balance. Otherwise, it could negatively influence the stability of a country’s financial economy, possibly resulting in regional financial crises. This study estimates time varying values of the equilibrium real effective exchange rate (EREER) and associated exchange rate misalignments for China in recent years (from the first quarter of 1999 to fourth quarter of 2007). The study focuses on the reduced-form equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) model for developing countries presented by Elbadawi (1994) and follows Edwards’ (1989, 1994) work on models of exchange rate determination. We identify the terms of trade, openness, government expenditure, productivity, and money supply as important explanatory variables of the RMB long-run equilibrium value. We use the Johansen-Juselius (1990) co-integration procedure to analyse our data. Using the ERER model, our results show there is a cointegrating relationship between the real effective exchange rate and its economic fundamentals. Subsequently, compare to other previous studies discussed in Chapter 2, our restricted error-correction model suggests that the extent of the misalignment is not very large, moving in a narrow band of plus and minus 12 percent of the long-run equilibrium level during the sample period. Focusing on the RMB real exchange rate misalignment in recent years, our result shows that the RMB was undervalued by an average of 6.7 percent during the period of 2005Q:3-2007Q:4. Furthermore, our short-run empirical error correction model indicates that, on average, the real exchange rate takes over one quarter to reach its long-run equilibrium level.