Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are a common feature of mid- and high-latitudes which, on a large scale, are a primary mechanism by which heat and moisture are transported from equator to pole. ETCs also exert a major impact at smaller scales. Communities along the western coast of Alaska face many types of impacts generated by the winds associated with ETCs, including storm surges, sea water intrusion into fresh water stores, and coastal erosion. Such “strong wind events”, which can occur independent of an ETC, can also generate hazardous sea states and associated impacts on shipping. With no roads, coastal Alaska relies heavily on marine and air transportation. Hazards posed to marine and air travel are often related to two main types of weather: wind and fog. Consultations with stakeholders in the marine transportation community have indicated more precisely specific aspects of poor weather, such as high wind events, that are problematic, including the idea that the periods between strong wind events, defined as lull periods, represent an important metric when planning travel between points of safe harbour. Three separate studies of storminess metrics in the North Pacific and Alaskan regions are presented. The first study presents both a comparison of two storm identification and tracking algorithms and an evaluation of the general characteristics of extratropical cyclones for the North Pacific as portrayed in two reanalyses. The second study applies a modified wind event identification algorithm to reanalysis data to evaluate the spatial climatological patterns of wind events in the circum-Arctic. The third study tests the statistical relationships and predictability of two measures of storm activity - cyclone track density (TDEN) and wind event frequency - in the North Pacific using teleconnection indices exhibiting local influence. The first study showed that the general patterns and trends of cyclone characteristics are similar between the two methods, though with increased values of cyclogenesis density, cyclolysis density, and track density when using the relative vorticity based method. A comparison between storm tracks for NCEP1 and the 56-member ensemble of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis v2 (20CR) shows distinct differences between the 20CR and NCEP1 mean climatology for main storminess indicators. The second study evaluated the spatial and temporal characteristics of wind events and introduced a novel indicator that characterizes periods of favorable weather between strong wind events that last 48-hours or longer, termed lull events. Lull periods were found to be an important consideration for northern marine operations – both economic and subsistence. Additionally, combinations of lull and wind event indicators, termed lull/storm winds (LSW), were analyzed and showed that preferred areas of wind events and lull events are not always spatially coherent. The third study tested the statistical relationships and predictability of two measures of storm activity - cyclone track density (TDEN) and wind event frequency - in the North Pacific using teleconnection indices with local influence for the winter period of 1950 - 2012. Two statistical modeling techniques are applied to evaluate linear and non-linear methods of prediction for the region. For both measures of storm activity, the North Pacific index, Niño 3.4 index, and the AO index were found to be the best predictors. Using a 23-year hindcast period (1980 – 2012), the region of highest wind event anomaly prediction skill is located in the western Bering Sea, with hindcast correlation values as high as +0.5 and root mean squared skill scores (RMSESS) 25% higher than climatology. Highest TDEN predictive skill from the 23-year hindcast is found in the southeast region of the North Pacific, near the California coastline, with correlation and RMSESS as high as +0.7 and 25 - 30%, respectively. / Graduate

Thesis advisor: Jean M. Bartunek / Thesis advisor: Myeong-Gu Seo / My dissertation builds theory about gratitude at work. Drawing from Affective Events Theory, I suggest two different forms of gratitude: state gratitude and job gratitude. State gratitude refers to grateful moods or emotions which tend to last short term, whereas job gratitude refers to employees’ grateful attitudes particularly toward their jobs that tend to last longer. Empirically, I conducted three related studies. In the first study, I developed and validated the 7-item measure of job gratitude using a series of surveys that confirmed a satisfactory content and construct validity of the measure. Using an experience sampling procedure, in the second study I suggested and tested a theoretical model of state gratitude at work. A series of longitudinal surveys with 135 employees showed that state gratitude that is captured by a 3 week long daily survey is positively associated with in-role behaviors through the desire to reciprocate benevolence. My analyses also showed that the availability of extrinsic job rewards negatively moderates the positive impact of state gratitude on helping behaviors through the desire to reciprocate benevolence. Employees’ job dependency also negatively moderates the positive impact of state gratitude on both helping and in-role behaviors through the desire to reciprocate benevolence. The third study proposed and tested a theoretical model of job gratitude. My analyses showed that through the mechanism of intended help, job gratitude is positively associated with extra-role behaviors including helping behaviors, organizational citizenship behaviors directed to an organization, and voice behaviors. Taken together, my dissertation enriches theories in emotion literature by exploring a particular type of discrete, social, and moral emotions. My dissertation also contributes to gratitude literature outside of organizational studies, as it broadens the scope of impacts of gratitude in work contexts. Lastly, this dissertation contributes to Organizational Positive Scholarship by shedding light on the experiences of the recipients’ of prosocial behaviors. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2016. / Submitted to: Boston College. Carroll School of Management. / Discipline: Management and Organization.

O presente estudo tem o objetivo de analisar as notificações dos incidentes relacionados à assistência à saúde em um hospital universitário brasileiro entre os anos de 2015 e 2016.Para tanto, foram coletados dados secundários dos Eventos Adversos (EA) ocorridos no hospital e registrados no sistema VIGIHOSP, e foram descritos eventos de 8 perfis distintos: Procedimentos cirúrgicos, Quedas, Identificação do Paciente, Flebite, Medicamentos utilizados, Perda do Cateter, Lesão na Pele, e Sangue e Hemocomponentes. Os resultados alcançados têm suporte na literatura, tanto em relação à porcentagem de ocorrência de cada notificação, como também no que diz respeito às notificações que se tornam EA. Uma lacuna foi identificada: a literatura científica reforça bastante o problema da subnotificação e as mazelas dela decorrentes; mas, além desse fato, o que este estudo chama atenção é para a efetividade das notificações incompletas. Sugere-se ao hospital pesquisado a promoção das notificações como parte de uma cultura de segurança, buscando mais os resultados do que os culpados. Propõe-se também a utilização dos EA como indicadores de resultado para a gestão hospitalar, atrelados aos objetivos de qualidade e de custo / This study aims to analyze the reports of incidents related to health care in a Brazilian university hospital during the years 2015 and 2016. To do so, secondary data from Adverse Events (AD) occurred at the hospital and were recorded in the VIGIHOSP system, and events of 8 different profiles were described: Surgical Procedures, Falls, Patient Identification, Phlebitis, Medications Used, Catheter Loss, Skin Injury, and Blood and Hemocomponents. The results obtained are supported in the literature, both in relation to the percentage of occurrence of each notification, as well as with regard to notifications that become AD. A gap has been identified: the scientific literature strongly reinforces the problem of underreporting and the ensuing problems; but beyond this fact, what this study calls attention to is the effectiveness of incomplete notifications. For the researched hospital is suggested to promote the notifications as part of a safety culture, seeking more results than the culprits. It is also proposed the use of AD as outcome indicators for the hospital management, linked to quality and cost objectives

As estratégias para tornar as empresas mais competitivas apontam para a necessidade de redução de custos de produção e melhoria da qualidade dos produtos. Nesta direção o trabalho apresentado visa a incorporação dos princípios Lean de como diminuir os custos de produção e melhorar a qualidade dos produtos baseada na utilização dos elementos da manufatura enxuta através da técnica de eventos Kaizen. O uso isolado de ferramentas como o mapa de fluxo de valor fornece direção clara do que melhorar e possibilita enxergar o todo. Porém, ela não dá a receita de como transformar ou como fazer com que as pessoas contribuam para atingir os estados futuros. Existe a necessidade de transformar os processos e, também, as pessoas que neles trabalham. É preciso dar poder às pessoas para contribuir. A técnica de eventos Kaizen preconiza o comprometimento das pessoas e em muitos casos tem início de forma rápida e positiva, mas em pouco tempo as pessoas envolvidas esmorecem, pois os resultados na forma de lucros e melhoria substancial da qualidade não aparecem. Os eventos são realizados de forma isolada com utilização dos recursos em situações que aparentemente não são os pontos críticos do sistema. Em outras situações, as ferramentas aplicadas nos eventos não estão claramente entendidas pelos participantes e não conseguem resolver o problema focado. Por fim, nos eventos eficazes, os resultados não são sustentados por falta de acompanhamento das ações implantadas, ou mesmo, dos indicadores relacionados ao desempenho da área. Neste panorama, após uma revisão teórica dos principais elementos que levam uma organização a tornar-se Lean, o trabalho busca verificar se fatores como processo decisório de onde aplicar a técnica, assim como, os indicadores de monitoramento implicam na eficácia e sustentação dos resultados dos eventos. A verificação foi realizada através da análise e estudo de uma seqüência de eventos realizados de 2002 a 2005 na unidade escolhida, gerando algumas recomendações para se melhorar o processo decisório baseando-se em indicadores financeiros relevantes e um diagnóstico da área avaliada. / The strategies to transform companies more competitive direct to enhance the regional market, production cost reduction and quality improvement. It is clear the necessity of studying effective ways to accomplish these targets. In this direction this dissertation intend to study a technique that reduces the production costs and improve the quality levels based on the implementation of lean concepts through a Kaizen events technique. The isolated use of tools like value stream mapping gives a clear view of the whole picture but does not give the direction of how implement the future state and more important make the people committed allowing them contribute for the change. There is a need for change the process as well as the people. To accomplish this, the Kaizen technique can help or not depending how it is implemented. At first the technique really stimulates people to participate and get involved but soon the events do not give the expected results and the people involvement decrease. The events are realized in areas not relevant and the events are not sustained due to lack of monitoring process. In this scenario after a theory review of the lean journey, the dissertation verified if factors such as decision process on where to apply the technique and how to measure the improvement reached influence on the effectiveness and sustainability of the events’ results. It ended up with recommendations of a decision process based on financials metrics and a lean diagnosis of the evaluated area in order to really identify the business problem as well as the priority to address it solution.

Nas cidades, historicamente, são realizados eventos de diversos portes em praças públicas ou locais alternativos, como vazios urbanos, estacionamentos de automóveis, descampados, campos de futebol, faixas de areia das praias, entre outros. Tais festas são categorizadas genericamente como eventos ao ar livre e muitas vezes atraem uma grande concentração de público, o que gera a necessidade de aporte de uma logística com aparatos de suporte para garantir sua boa realização. Outro suporte importante é o staff, ou seja, a equipe de realização do evento. Esta pesquisa tem por objetivo entender como se dá a relação entre o sítio de realização, a qualidade do evento e os profissionais envolvidos. / Historically, cities have held events of different sizes in squares or alternative places such as vacant terrains parking lots, open fields, sports fields, beaches etc. Those events are generically categorized as open air, and often find a high concentration of public, which creates the need of a logistic apparatus to support the event and ensure its proper execution. Another important aspect is the support staff. This research tries to understand how the professionals involved, location and quality relates to each other in such events.

Cette thèse s’inscrit au carrefour du monde de la modélisation et simulation de systèmes d’une part et du monde de l’ingénierie logicielle d’autre part. Elle vise à faire bénéficier un formalisme de spécification de systèmes à évènements discrets (DEVS) des apports de l’ingénierie dirigée par les modèles (IDM) avec l’une de ses incarnations les plus populaires : MDA (Model Driven Architecture). Le formalisme DEVS de par son adaptabilité et son extensibilité permet l’expression et la simulation de modèles dans des domaines très variés, mais l’existence de plusieurs plateformes dédiées à ce langage nuit fortement à l’interopérabilité de ces modèles. Ces difficultés, si elles ne sont pas nouvelles, représentent cependant un défi d’autant plus important que les modèles considérés sont complexes (i.e composés en général de nombreux sous modèles et interagissant fortement entre eux). L’objectif de la thèse est de proposer une réponse à la problématique de l’interopérabilité des modèles DEVS, vis-À-Vis d’autres formalismes voisins de DEVS et également vis-À-Vis des différents simulateurs existants. Le cœur de notre travail est constitué par MetaDEVS, méta-Modèle offrant une représentation des modèles DEVS indépendante des plateformes. MetaDEVS est également le nom donné à l’approche globale qui vise à fournir des passerelles génériques entre différents formalismes et DEVS («Model-To-Model»). Cette approche montre également comment, à partir de modèles DEVS spécifiés selon MetaDEVS, du code orienté-Objet, simulable, peut être automatiquement généré («Model-To-Text»).Les formalismes choisis pour faire l’objet d’une transformation vers DEVS sont BasicDEVS, un petit formalisme pédagogique créé pour l’occasion, ainsi que les automates à états finis (FSM). La plateforme de destination choisie pour la génération de code est la plateforme éducative PyDEVS, compatible avec la plateforme DEVSimPy, utilisée par les chercheurs du projet TIC de l’Università di Corsica. / This thesis takes place at the intersection between the world of modeling and simulation, and the world of software engineering. Its provides a contribution to a discrete-Event specification formalism (DEVS) using techniques of Model-Driven Engineering, with one of its most popular incarnations : MDA (Model Driven Architecture). The DEVS formalism, thanks to its adaptability and its extensibility, is able to express and simulate models in various domains. However, the existence of many dedicated platforms damages the interoperability of those models. Those difficulties, even if they are not new, are a challenge which is all the greater as the studied models are complex (i.e. usually composed of several submodels with a strong interaction).The main purpose of this thesis is to tackle the problem of the DEVS models interoperability, with respect to other formalisms close to DEVS, and also with respect to the different existing simulators. The core of our work is constituted by MetaDEVS, a metamodel that offers a platform-Independent representation of DEVS models. MetaDEVS is also the name given to the global approach which aims to provide generic bridges between different formalisms and DEVS (“Model-To-Model”). This approach also shows how, starting from DEVS models specified with MetaDEVS, object-Oriented code can be automatically generated (“Model-To-Text”).The formalisms chosen to be transformed into DEVS are BasicDEVS, a small pedagogical formalism create for our needs, and the finite state machines (FSM). The chosen target platform for the code generation is the educative framework PyDEVS, compliant with the DEVSimPy framework used by the researchers of the TIC project of the University of Corsica.

Technological innovation is inescapable if civilisation is to continue in the face of population growth, rising expectations and resource exhaustion. Unfortunately, major innovations, confidently thought to be safe, occasionally fail catastrophically. The fears so engendered are impeding technical progress generally and that of nuclear power in particular. Attempts to allay disquiet about these disastrous Low Probability Events (LPEs) by exhaustive studies of nuclear power plant designs have, so far, been less than successful. The New Treatment adopts instead an approach that, after examination of the LPE in its historical and societal settings, combines theoretical design analysis with construction site and operational realities in pragmatic engineering, the quality of which can be assured by accountable inspection. The LPE is envisaged as a singularity in a stream of largely mundane, but untoward incidents, described as 'Event-noise'. Predictions of the likelihood of plant LPEs by frequency-theory probability are illusory because the LPE is unique and not part of a stable distribution. Again, noise analysis seems to lead to intractable mathematical expressions. While theoretical LPE prognostications depend on the identification of fault sequences in design that can either be designed-out or reduced to plausibly negligible probabilities, the reality of LPE prevention lies with the plant in operation. As absolute safety is unattainable, the approach aims at ensuring that the perceived residual nuclear risk is societally tolerable. An adaption of elementary Catastrophe theory to model the prospective Event-noise field to be experienced by the plant is proposed whereby potential, credible LPEs could be more readily discerned and avoided. In this milieu of increasing sophistication in technology when management in the traditional administrative mold is proving inadequate, the engineer emerges as the proper central decision-maker. The special intellectual capability needed is acquired during his training and experience, a claim that can draw support from new studies in neuropsychology. The Nuclear Installation Inspectorate is cited as an exemplar of a body practising the kind of engineering inspection needed to apprehend those human fallibilities to which most catastrophic failures of technology are due. Nevertheless, such regulatory systems lack accountability and, as Goedel's theorem suggests, cannot assess their own efficiency. Independent appraisal by Signal Detection Theory is suggested as a remedy.

Disaster preparedness is absolutely necessary as the number of both man-made and natural disasters increases worldwide. Not confined to any regions or people, disasters can result in mass casualties. The United States is not spared from these incidents. Ever since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the United States has tried to establish more effective and efficient emergency management systems at all levels in order to respond to any type of disaster. Due to the effort, much improvement in disaster preparedness was observed when mass casualty events happened within the last 10 years. Although there are many independent studies for each mass casualty event, there are very few studies done to compare multiple mass casualty incidents and find commonly shared lessons. This paper aims to determine whether there are any similarities among three mass casualty events - 2005 Hurricane Katrina, the 2009 Aurora Theatre Shooting, and the 2013 Boston Marathon Bombing. Because the response to the 2013 Boston Marathon Bombing was the most seamless among the three, the most in-depth investigation was done on this incident. Through the examination, the study will also prove if any of the lessons learned from these events can be implemented in future mass casualty incidents. To do so, many current reports and literature reviews were analyzed. The conclusion gained from this study is that there are indeed commonly occurring challenges in disasters and various aspects of disaster preparedness that require practice and preparation. In addition, learning from others' unfortunate mass casualty incidents and their lessons is an important part of strengthening the existing disaster preparedness systems.

Orientador: Silvana Andrea Molina Lima / Resumo: A cultura de segurança pode ser definida como padrões de comportamento de indivíduos e/ou grupos, baseando-se em valores e atitudes, e que podem determinar a maneira como exercerão seu trabalho. Uma cultura de segurança positiva estabelece uma boa comunicação institucional e um compartilhamento eficaz da percepção sobre a importância da segurança e da confiança nas medidas preventivas adotadas. O presente trabalho teve como objetivo analisar a cultura de segurança do paciente sob a perspectiva dos enfermeiros de um hospital terciário do interior do estado de São Paulo. Trata-se de estudo quantitativo, transversal e descritivo. Foi aplicado o instrumento Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture (HSOPSC), validado e traduzido para o português pela ENSP – Fiocruz. A coleta dos dados foi realizada no período de agosto de 2017 a fevereiro de 2018. Após análise dos dados, verificou-se que a população é predominantemente do sexo feminino, e com idade média de 34,19 ± 6.29 anos. A maioria dos enfermeiros tem carga horária de trabalho entre 40 a 59 horas, um tempo de trabalho no hospital e na unidade menor de 5 anos. Em relação as dimensões do questionário sobre a cultura de segurança do paciente, foram avaliadas no geral, de forma positiva. Apenas a dimensão “Quadro de Funcionários” e “Percepção geral de segurança do paciente” foi avaliada de maneira negativa. A instituição possui uma cultura de segurança, uma vez que os profissionais enfermeiros realizam as notificações de ocorrênc... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: Safety culture can be defined as a behavioral pattern of individuals and groups, based on their values and attitudes, and that determine the way in which they carry out their work. A safety culture is positive in relation to safety and an effective control of safety in safety and security in the preventive measures adopted. The present study had the objective of analyzing the patient 's culture from the perspective of the nurses of a tertiary hospital in the interior of the state of. This is a quantitative, cross-sectional study. The instrument Hospital Research on Patient Safety Culture, validated and translated into Portuguese by National public health school - Fiocruz, was applied. Data collection was performed from August 2017 to February 2018. After data analysis, the population was predominantly female, with a daily average of 34.19 ± 6.29 years. Most professionals have a working time between 40 and 59 hours. Regarding the dimensions of the filter on the safety culture of the patient, they were evaluated in general, in a positive way. Only one "Employee Scale" and "General Perception of Patient Safety" dimension was evaluated negatively. The institution has a safety culture, since nursing professionals perform events of adverse events such as the existence of an error and the incident without harm. The implementation, evaluation of results, investments in the systematic of errors and professional suitability can strengthen the security in the institution. It is conclude... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Mestre

Rare events have very low probability of occurrence but can have significant impact. Earthquakes, volcanoes, and stock market crashes can have devastating impact on those affected. In industry, engineers evaluate rare events to design better high-reliability systems. The objective of this work is to increase efficiency in design optimization for rare events using metamodeling and variance reduction techniques. Opportunity exists to increase deterministic optimization efficiency by leveraging Design of Experiments to build an accurate metamodel of the system which is less resource intensive to evaluate than the real system. For computationally expensive models, running many trials will impede fast design iteration. Accurate metamodels can be used in place of these expensive models to probabilistically optimize the system for efficient quantification of rare event risk. Monte Carlo is traditionally used for this risk quantification but variance reduction techniques such as importance sampling allow accurate quantification with fewer model evaluations. Metamodel techniques are the thread that tie together deterministic optimization using Design of Experiments and probabilistic optimization using Monte Carlo and variance reduction. This work will explore metamodeling theory and implementation, and outline a framework for efficient deterministic and probabilistic system optimization. The overall conclusion is that deterministic and probabilistic simulation can be combined through metamodeling and used to drive efficiency in design optimization. Applications are demonstrated on a gas turbine combustion autoignition application where user controllable independent variables are optimized in mean and variance to maximize system performance while observing a constraint on allowable probability of a rare autoignition event.