How do catch-up East Asian countries cultivate their exchange rate (ER) policies in a different trajectory than advanced economies often cited in current literature? What are the dynamics and results (pros and cons) of choosing a particular ER policy, and what influence does it have on the progress of developmental states? How do domestic and international politics explain the convergences and variances of ER policy decisions in East Asia? The decisions of ER policy are by all means political choices. ERs influence the prices of daily exchanged goods, and thereby determine resource allocation within and across national borders. Therefore, any internal political actor, including a government, interest group, foreign party or constituent exerts discretionary power to manipulate an ER to satisfy its own interests. Externally, the size of foreign trade and the status of international monetary accounts closely depend on the valuation and volatility of ER. Thus for the transitional polities and the trade-driving economies in East Asia, the analysis of ER politics not only helps to clarify the complex mechanisms of ER influences combined with various interests and institutional settings, but also to advance the political study of globalization. My dissertation proposes an integrated framework to contend that the domestic distributional politics and economic determinants, as well as the international monetary relations, and regional market force and adaptive policy diffusion are crucial factors that influence and interact with ER policy in East Asia. This theoretical framework explains how an ER policy decision is compromised between domestically generated preferences and apparently intense international interactions. Likewise, this dissertation provides a vigorous empirical specification toward the spatiotemporal differences of ER policy in East Asia. The application of the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model properly specifies the theoretical dynamics across variables in the East Asian panel data compiled from 1980 to 2004. Furthermore, by using the alternative Bayesian estimation, SVAR successfully demonstrates the "spinning stories" that distinguish the variances with regard to country-specific development under the asymmetrically international and interdependently regional monetary system. The empirical findings verify that my theoretical variables interact significantly with ER policy decisions in East Asia. The statistics also demonstrate that most East Asian countries tend to strategically withstand influences from the various waves of capital liberalization and keep their currencies at low values. In a general testing, however, domestic pursuits for preferred interests gradually yield to the persistent influences of international and regional forces on ER policy making in East Asia. / text

[pt] Foco de grandes controvérsias quanto seus efeitos sobre a taxa de câmbio, as intervenções cambiais tem sido amplamente utilizadas no processo de recomposição de reservas internacionais brasileiras. Muito embora não seja o principal objetivo do Banco Central do Brasil afetar o nível da taxa de câmbio, é possível que isso ocorra. Portanto, este trabalho busca responder à seguinte indagação: teriam as intervenções cambiais esterilizadas efeitos sobre a taxa de câmbio? Os resultados encontrados dão indícios de que tais efeitos existem, mas são de magnitude muito reduzida e de curta duração. / [en] Central object of big controversies regarding its effects on the exchange rate, sterilized interventions have been largely used by Brazil`s Central Bank on the buildup of the country`s international reserves. Although it is not his objective to affect the exchange rate level when buying foreign currency, there is a chance that it might happen. In this line, the primary question of this work is: Does sterilized interventions on the exchange market affect the exchange rate? The found results give some evidence that such effects exist, but are very small on its magnitude and of low duration.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Paula Oda.pdf: 1429202 bytes, checksum: 4f6c371534db698c67b0bd2458432d25 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-05-25 / Exchange rate is an important element in the economic growth process in developing countries. It is supposed that the maintenance of this rate at relatively undervalued and competitive levels generates economic stimulus necessary to promote this growth by enabling greater competitiveness in the international trade, capable of producing positive expectations in economic agents, stimulating productive investment, and industrial development. However, it will be noticed that the process of financial globalization has resulted in an increase of capital flows, leading to significant effects on exchange rates in developing countries, and reducing the ability of monetary authorities in theses countries to control the exchange rate. The adoption of a flexible exchange rate policy, as proposed by orthodox theories, ended up allowing that the increase of speculative capital flow toward the peripheral economies provoking an intense appreciation of these currencies. This appreciation harmed the process of economic growth in these countries by reducing competitiveness in the international market, favoring an increase in imports, and discouraging productive investment, which could lead to a change in the productive structure in a way to incentive the targeting toward primary-export activities. Analyzing the performance of the Brazilian economy in the period between 1999 and 2011, this tendency toward currency appreciation and its impact on economic performance is noticed, resulting in a moderate growth, below the level observed in its major competitors. The results observed in the Brazilian economy suggest the need for a more active exchange policy, in order to preserve the exchange rate in undervalued levels, in a way to promote stimulus to economic growth. However, it is important to highlight that the Brazilian exchange market presents a structure that encumbers interventions that aim to preserve an exchange rate that favors economic growth, whereupon the spot market suffers intense influence from derivatives markets strongly speculative. This peculiarity should be explored in the discussion for a strategy of economic growth supported by an undervalued exchange policy / A taxa de câmbio é um importante elemento no processo de crescimento econômico dos países em desenvolvimento. Propõe-se que a manutenção dessa taxa em níveis relativamente desvalorizados e competitivos gera estímulos econômicos necessários para promover esse crescimento ao possibilitar maior competitividade no comércio internacional, capaz de produzir expectativas positivas nos agentes econômicos, estimular o investimento produtivo e o desenvolvimento industrial. No entanto, se observará que o processo de mundialização financeira resultou em um aumento dos fluxos de capitais, provocando efeitos significativos nas taxas de câmbio dos países em desenvolvimento e reduzindo a capacidade de controle cambial das autoridades monetárias desses países. A adoção de um regime de câmbio flexível, tal como proposto pelas teorias ortodoxas, acaba por permitir que o aumento dos fluxos de capitais especulativos em direção às economias periféricas provocasse uma intensa valorização dessas moedas. Essa valorização, prejudica o processo de crescimento econômico desses países ao reduzir a competitividade no mercado internacional, favorecer o aumento das importações e desestimular o investimento produtivo, podendo provocar uma alteração na estrutura produtiva de forma a incentivar o direcionamento à atividades primárioexportadoras. Ao analisar o desempenho econômico brasileiro no período entre 1999 e 2011 se observa essa tendência à apreciação cambial e seus impactos sobre o desempenho econômico, resultando em um crescimento moderado, abaixo do observado nos seus principais concorrentes. Os resultados observados na economia brasileira sugerem a necessidade de uma política cambial mais ativa, com o objetivo de preservar a taxa de câmbio em níveis desvalorizados, no sentido de promover estímulos ao crescimento econômico. No entanto, destaca-se que o mercado cambial brasileiro apresenta uma estrutura que dificulta as intervenções no sentido de preservar uma taxa de câmbio que favoreça o crescimento econômico, no qual o mercado à vista sofre intensa influência dos mercados derivativos fortemente especulativos. Essa particularidade deve ser explorada na discussão de uma estratégia de crescimento econômico sustentada por uma política de câmbio desvalorizado

A presente dissertação de conclusão de mestrado tem por objetivo contribuir com a literatura existente que versa acerca da estimação da Taxa de Câmbio Real (RER) através de fundamentos econômicos. O objetivo deste trabalho é utilizar o instrumental teórico de modelos com mudança de regime (Markov Switching) aplicado sobre os fundamentos que determinam a RER em um modelo de Cointegração. O modelo teórico utilizado para a estimação foi o proposto por Montiel (1999), modelo este que é mais indicado para países em desenvolvimento, para o período de 1994 até 2005. Os resultados obtidos na estimação da Taxa de Câmbio Real foram contundentes em demonstrar que havia três regimes distintos (definidos como sendo regimes de estabilidade, transição e risco extremo) na determinação da RER, indicando que havia uma relação não linear entre está última e os fundamentos econômicos. Verificou-se ainda que a magnitude e os sinais dos parâmetros dos fundamentos estimados para cada regime distinto eram diferentes, sugerindo que a RER reagia de maneira distinta a choques nos fundamentos econômicos de acordo com o regime que a economia se encontrava. Os coeficientes obtidos nas estimações foram utilizados para estimar uma Taxa de Câmbio de Equilíbrio, sendo possível identificar os desvios (misalignments) da taxa observa com relação à taxa estimada a parti r de 1994. / The present dissertation aims to contribute with the studies over Real Exchange Rate in Brazil and the impact of the economic fundamentals on its determination. The main purpose of the dissertation is to use the Markov Switching framework over the fundamentals in the estimation of the Real exchange Rate to the period between 1994 and 2005, using a model based on Montiel (1999), which is more appropriate to developing countries. The results show strong evidences that there are different regimes (interpreted as stability, transition and extremely risk), which can be understood as a non linear relationship between the Real Exchange Rate and the fundamentals. In other words, it was possible to show that the impact of the fundamentals over the Real Exchange Rate is submitted to three different regimes, where the magnitude and signal of their coefficients are different in each regime. The parameters of the model were used to estimate an Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate, which was possible to demonstrate the misalignments after 1994.

-Les dynamiques du taux de change en présence de frictions sur les marchés financiers.Cette analyse est une extension du modéle du surajustement « Overshooting » de Dornbusch. Il s'éloigne du modéle de base en faisant l'hypothèse que les marchés financiers ne s'ajustent pas instantanément, « generalised interest parity condition ». Le modele de taux de change sous cette hypothèse, reproduit le surajustement retarde du taux de change nominal. Notre modele arrive aussi a capturer la variation en forme de bosse du taux de change reel et suite a un choc monetaire.-Électorale Cycle de taux de change en CoréeCe papier analyse empiriquement les variations du taux de change reel en Coree du Sud, a l'approche des elections et un peu apres de celles-ci. Nous remarquons que le taux de change baisse juste avant les election mais nous n'avons pu deceler de tendance nette apres. Ce resultat est a l'oppose de celui trouve lors de l'étude des cycles électorales en Amérique latine. Nous expliquons cette divergence par des différences dans la structure économique entre la Corée du Sud et les pays d'Amerique latine-Le régime de change, l'ouverture des marchés de la capitale et de la politique monétaire; Le trilemme en CoréeCet article teste la proposition trilemme en effectuant une étude empirique de Corée. La Corée possède périodes distinctes de toutes les combinaisons de régime de taux de change et l'ouverture du marché des capitaux dans le trilemme: rattaché au régime de taux de change sous le contrôle des capitaux, rattaché au régime de taux de change sous libre circulation des capitaux et des taux de change flottant régime en vertu libre circulation des capitaux. Nous vérifions si l'autonomie monétaire existe dans chacune des trois combinaisons différentes. Nous constatons que l'autonomie monétaire existé au cours des périodes où les contrôles de capitaux et les périodes de régime de taux de change flottant. Pour les périodes avec le régime de parité fixe et libre circulation des capitaux, l'autonomie monétaire a été limitée. En outre, nous identifions que, juste avant la crise financière, le gouvernement a poursuivi la politique monétaire autonome sous le régime de taux de change arrimé et libre circulation des capitaux, défiant ainsi le trilemme. / -Exchange Rate Dynamics under Financial Market FrictionsThis paper extends Dornbusch's overshooting model by proposing “generalized interest parity condition”, which assumes sluggish adjustment on the asset market. The exchange rate model under the generalized interest parity condition is able to reproduce the delayed overshooting of nominal exchange rates and the hump-shaped response to monetary shocks of both nominal and real exchange rates.-Electoral Cycle of Exchange Rate in KoreaThis paper empirically investigates the real exchange rate behavior around elections in Korea. We find that the real exchange rate depreciates more before the elections but there is no clear pattern found after the elections. Interestingly, this result is the opposite of the electoral cycle found in Latin American countries. To explain this results we should consider the difference between economic backgrounds of Korea and Latin American countries.-Exchange Rate Regime, Capital Market Openness and Monetary Policy; The Trilemma in KoreaThis paper tests the trilemma proposition by performing an empirical study of Korea. Korea has distinct periods of all combinations of exchange rate regime and capital market openness in trilemma: pegged exchange rate regime under capital controls, pegged exchange rate regime under free capital mobility, and floating exchange rate regime under free capital mobility. We check whether monetary autonomy exists in each of the three different combinations. We find that monetary autonomy existed over the periods with capital controls and the periods with floating exchange rate regime. For the periods with the pegged exchange rate regime and free capital mobility, monetary autonomy was limited. In addition, we identify that just before the financial crisis the government pursued autonomic monetary policy under pegged exchange rate regime and free capital mobility, thereby defying the trilemma.

A presente dissertação de conclusão de mestrado tem por objetivo contribuir com a literatura existente que versa acerca da estimação da Taxa de Câmbio Real (RER) através de fundamentos econômicos. O objetivo deste trabalho é utilizar o instrumental teórico de modelos com mudança de regime (Markov Switching) aplicado sobre os fundamentos que determinam a RER em um modelo de Cointegração. O modelo teórico utilizado para a estimação foi o proposto por Montiel (1999), modelo este que é mais indicado para países em desenvolvimento, para o período de 1994 até 2005. Os resultados obtidos na estimação da Taxa de Câmbio Real foram contundentes em demonstrar que havia três regimes distintos (definidos como sendo regimes de estabilidade, transição e risco extremo) na determinação da RER, indicando que havia uma relação não linear entre está última e os fundamentos econômicos. Verificou-se ainda que a magnitude e os sinais dos parâmetros dos fundamentos estimados para cada regime distinto eram diferentes, sugerindo que a RER reagia de maneira distinta a choques nos fundamentos econômicos de acordo com o regime que a economia se encontrava. Os coeficientes obtidos nas estimações foram utilizados para estimar uma Taxa de Câmbio de Equilíbrio, sendo possível identificar os desvios (misalignments) da taxa observa com relação à taxa estimada a parti r de 1994. / The present dissertation aims to contribute with the studies over Real Exchange Rate in Brazil and the impact of the economic fundamentals on its determination. The main purpose of the dissertation is to use the Markov Switching framework over the fundamentals in the estimation of the Real exchange Rate to the period between 1994 and 2005, using a model based on Montiel (1999), which is more appropriate to developing countries. The results show strong evidences that there are different regimes (interpreted as stability, transition and extremely risk), which can be understood as a non linear relationship between the Real Exchange Rate and the fundamentals. In other words, it was possible to show that the impact of the fundamentals over the Real Exchange Rate is submitted to three different regimes, where the magnitude and signal of their coefficients are different in each regime. The parameters of the model were used to estimate an Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate, which was possible to demonstrate the misalignments after 1994.

A presente dissertação de conclusão de mestrado tem por objetivo contribuir com a literatura existente que versa acerca da estimação da Taxa de Câmbio Real (RER) através de fundamentos econômicos. O objetivo deste trabalho é utilizar o instrumental teórico de modelos com mudança de regime (Markov Switching) aplicado sobre os fundamentos que determinam a RER em um modelo de Cointegração. O modelo teórico utilizado para a estimação foi o proposto por Montiel (1999), modelo este que é mais indicado para países em desenvolvimento, para o período de 1994 até 2005. Os resultados obtidos na estimação da Taxa de Câmbio Real foram contundentes em demonstrar que havia três regimes distintos (definidos como sendo regimes de estabilidade, transição e risco extremo) na determinação da RER, indicando que havia uma relação não linear entre está última e os fundamentos econômicos. Verificou-se ainda que a magnitude e os sinais dos parâmetros dos fundamentos estimados para cada regime distinto eram diferentes, sugerindo que a RER reagia de maneira distinta a choques nos fundamentos econômicos de acordo com o regime que a economia se encontrava. Os coeficientes obtidos nas estimações foram utilizados para estimar uma Taxa de Câmbio de Equilíbrio, sendo possível identificar os desvios (misalignments) da taxa observa com relação à taxa estimada a parti r de 1994. / The present dissertation aims to contribute with the studies over Real Exchange Rate in Brazil and the impact of the economic fundamentals on its determination. The main purpose of the dissertation is to use the Markov Switching framework over the fundamentals in the estimation of the Real exchange Rate to the period between 1994 and 2005, using a model based on Montiel (1999), which is more appropriate to developing countries. The results show strong evidences that there are different regimes (interpreted as stability, transition and extremely risk), which can be understood as a non linear relationship between the Real Exchange Rate and the fundamentals. In other words, it was possible to show that the impact of the fundamentals over the Real Exchange Rate is submitted to three different regimes, where the magnitude and signal of their coefficients are different in each regime. The parameters of the model were used to estimate an Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate, which was possible to demonstrate the misalignments after 1994.

The thesis deals with the exchange rate policy of the People's Republic of China. The objective is to evaluate the effect of exchange rate policy on the current account balance and the monetary policy. The theoretical part of the thesis outlines basic concepts of the foreign exchange market and relevant theories. The following section deals with the evolution of exchange rate policies. The final part is devoted to the analysis of influence of renminbi exchange rate on current account deficit and monetary policy. When assessing the impacts of renminbi exchange rate on monetary policy, open market operations and reserve requirements of banks can be considered as a vital tool of monetary policy of China. The central bank employs interest rate adjustments as a secondary instrument of the Chinese monetary policy.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Joanito Teixeira Machado.pdf: 806090 bytes, checksum: 13b58824a76d41aa01eaa9d8af3c6cd2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-05-11 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This study consists in the analyses of the relations of causality among some of the main variables of Brazilian fiscal and monetary policies in the period post-Plano Real (1995-2008). The study was concentrated in the identification of the impacts of each one of the variables over the determination of the temporal path of each another. Initially, the work systematizes the theorist debate about the subject in two divergent axes: i) The hypothesis of fiscal dominance, that identificates the main determinants of the persistent contracionist monetary policy in the expansionist fiscal policy. ii) An alternative hypothesis that identificates the main determinants of the fiscal disequilibrium of the public sector in Brazil in the contracionist monetary policy, in the persistent overvaluation of the Real and in the strategy of international insertion of the country in the last two decades. Even, the study presents an econometric analyses of temporal series about fiscal policy, monetary policy and exchange rate policy in Brazil in the period of January/1995- December/2008. The econometric analyses consists in the application of the Vector Autorregressive Model (VAR) and of the Granger Causality Test / Este estudo consiste numa análise das relações de causalidade existentes entre algumas das principais variáveis de políticas fiscal e monetária brasileiras no período pós-Plano Real (1995-2008), concentrando-se na identificação dos impactos que cada uma das variáveis exerceu sobre a determinação da trajetória temporal das demais. Buscou-se, inicialmente, sistematizar o debate teórico travado acerca do tema em torno de dois eixos divergentes, quais sejam, i) o que aceita a hipótese da dominância fiscal e identifica no manejo de uma política fiscal supostamente expansionista o principal determinante da natureza persistentemente contracionista da política monetária durante o período; e ii) o que rejeita esta hipótese, idenficando, ao contrário, no manejo da política monetária contracionista e da política cambial marcada pela persistente sobrevalorização da moeda nacional bem como na peculiar inserção internacional do país, dada ao longo das últimas duas décadas, os principais determinantes do persistente desequilíbrio fiscal do setor público. O estudo inclui ainda uma análise econométrica de séries temporais referentes às políticas fiscal, monetária e cambial, para o período de janeiro de 1995 a dezembro de 2008, baseada na aplicação do modelo de Vetores Auto-Regressivos (VAR) e no teste de causalidade de Granger

La présente thèse analyse les interactions entre les stratégies de ciblage d’inflation et leur contexte institutionnelau sein des économies émergentes. Plus précisément, les investigations empiriques menées dans le cadre de cettethèse visent à étudier le rôle du cadre institutionnel dans la conduite et l’efficacité de cette stratégie de politiquemonétaire. Pour cela, nous procédons en deux étapes. Dans un premier temps, nous considérons le cadreinstitutionnel comme exogène à l’adoption du ciblage d’inflation et analysons dans quelle mesure ce cadre a pujouer un rôle dans les performances macroéconomiques des pays émergents cibleurs inflation. Ainsi, après avoirposé les bases conceptuelles du ciblage d’inflation et mis en évidence le rôle des pré-requis économiques etinstitutionnels dans le choix des économies émergentes d’adopter cette stratégie de politique monétaire (chapitre1), nous montrons qu’un certain nombre de conditions institutionnelles ont pu renforcer l’efficacité du ciblaged’inflation en termes de stabilité des prix (chapitre 2). Puis, dans un second temps, nous nous plaçons postadoptionet considérons le cadre institutionnel comme endogène à l’adoption du ciblage d’inflation. L’objectifvisé est alors d’analyser la réponse des autorités des économies émergentes à l’adoption de ce cadre de politiquemonétaire. Nous montrons ainsi que l’adoption du ciblage d’inflation exerce un effet disciplinant sur la conduitede la politique budgétaire, en incitant notamment le gouvernement à intensifier ses efforts de mobilisation desrecettes publiques (chapitre 3). Enfin, nous analysons la politique de change des pays émergents cibleursd’inflation et montrons que la poursuite simultanée d’une cible officielle d’inflation et d’une cible implicite dechange peut être contreproductive en termes de performances macroéconomiques, surtout lorsque cette gestiondu change est motivée par des considérations de stabilité financière (chapitre 4). D’où l’importance pour lespays émergents souhaitant adopter une stratégie de ciblage d’inflation de conduire en amont des réformesstructurelles visant à développer leur marché bancaire et financier. / This thesis deals with the interactions between inflation targeting strategies and their institutional framework inemerging economies. More precisely, empirical investigations conducted in this thesis aim to study the role ofthe institutional framework in the conduct and efficiency of inflation targeting. To this end, we proceed in twosteps. First, we consider the institutional framework as exogenous to inflation targeting adoption and analyzewhether this framework has impacted macroeconomic performance of inflation targeting countries. Thus, afterlaying the conceptual background of inflation targeting and showing the importance of economic andinstitutional prerequisites in the choice of emerging countries of adopting this monetary policy strategy (chapter1), we show that some institutional conditions can strengthen the performance of inflation targeting countries interms of inflation level and volatility (chapter 2). Then, in a second step, we consider the institutionalframework as endogenous to inflation targeting and analyze the response of authorities to the adoption of thismonetary policy strategy. The first result that emerges is that the adoption of inflation targeting provides strongincentives to government for improving fiscal discipline, especially the collection of domestic tax revenue(chapter 3). Finally, we analyze the exchange rate policy of inflation targeting emerging economies and showthat the pursuit of two nominal targets, inflation and exchange rate, can be counterproductive in terms ofmacroeconomic performance, more particularly when this exchange rate management is motivated by financialstability considerations (chapitre 4). Hence the importance for inflation targeting candidates of conductingstructural reforms to increase financial development.