Η παρούσα εργασία σκοπεύει στην παρουσίαση και ανάλυση μιας μεθόδου Λήψης Αποφάσεων η οποία διαχειρίζεται αποφάσεις πολυσταδιακές ως προς τα κριτήρια. Πρόκειται για αποφάσεις οι οποίες έχουν συγκεκριμένες εναλλακτικές επιλογές και πολλαπλά κριτήρια. Αποφάσεις σαν αυτές συνδέονται με κάθε επιστημονικό κλάδο αλλά τις συναντάμε και στην καθημερινότητα μας, γεγονός που καθιστά τον αποτελεσματικό χειρισμό τους σημαντικό. Η μέθοδος με την οποία θα ασχοληθούμε ονομάζεται Αναλυτική Ιεραρχική Διαδικασία (Analytic Hierarchy Process – AHP), δημιουργός της είναι ο Thomas L. Saaty και χρονολογείται μέσα στην δεκαετία του 1970. Η AHP βασίζεται στις σχετικές συγκρίσεις ανάμεσα στους παράγοντες που προσδιορίζουν την εκάστοτε απόφαση. Οι συγκρίσεις πραγματοποιούνται με κοινή βάση την θεμελιώδη κλίμακα του Saaty. Στο πρώτο κεφάλαιο όπου παρουσιάζεται το θεωρητικό υπόβαθρο της μεθόδου, θα δούμε ότι με τον τρόπο αυτό η AHP καθιστά τα πάντα μετρήσιμα. Σκοπός είναι μέσω της ιεραρχική δόμησης του προβλήματος να προσδιοριστεί η καλύτερη από τις εναλλακτικές. Η AHP προσεγγίζει με απλότητα την πολυπλοκότητα των αποφάσεων, γεγονός που κάνει την εννοιολογικά απλή προσέγγιση της μεθόδου εξαιρετικά ισχυρή. Στην πορεία της εργασίας θα παρουσιάσουμε το μαθηματικό υπόβαθρο της μεθόδου μέσα από την αξιωματική θεμελίωση όπως δόθηκε από τον Thomas L. Saaty. Τέλος, θα αναλύσουμε προβλήματα επιλογής τοποθεσίας σε διεθνές επίπεδο και θα ολοκληρώσουμε με την υλοποίηση ενός τέτοιου προβλήματος στο Expert Choice. / This paper intends to present and analyze a method of multi-criteria decision making. In these decisions the alternatives have been predetermined and there are multiple criteria affecting them. Decisions like these are linked with many areas of science, but there are in everyone’s daily lives too, fact that makes the effective handling really important. The present study is been dealing with a method called Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), invented by Thomas L. Saaty in seventies. The AHP is based on pairwise comparisons among the factors that determine the decision. The Saaty’s fundamental scale of absolute numbers is used in making paired comparison judgments. In the first chapter of the study where the theoretical base of the method is represented, will be seen that AHP with the relative comparisons makes everything measurable. AHP intends through hierarchical structuring of the problem to determine the best of the alternatives. The AHP approach with simplicity to the complexity of decisions makes the method conceptually simple and extremely powerful. Later in this paper will be presented the mathematical background of the method through the axiomatic foundation as given by Thomas L. Saaty. Finally, will be dealt with problems of location selection decisions in international operations and the paper will be completed with the implementation of such a problem in Expert Choice.

Submitted by Reginaldo Soares de Freitas (reginaldo.freitas@ufv.br) on 2016-11-11T15:15:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.pdf: 1536901 bytes, checksum: bd802f24118997ec9dc78f715bd85f72 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-11-11T15:15:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 texto completo.pdf: 1536901 bytes, checksum: bd802f24118997ec9dc78f715bd85f72 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005-03-17 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / Tendo em vista o potencial da fruticultura no Brasil, e considerando-se especialmente as oportunidades para os produtos agroindustriais orgânicos à base de frutas, o presente estudo teve como objetivo geral oferecer uma contribuição ao esforço de fomento à fruticultura orgânica através da identificação de uma alternativa de produção e processamento de frutas segundo características desejadas pelos consumidores. O trabalho exemplifica ainda um processo metodológico capaz de contribuir para o desenvolvimento de novos produtos agroindustriais orgânicos em bases científicas, aumentando assim as suas probabilidades de sucesso nos mercados consumidores. O estudo enfocou as áreas da Zona da Mata de Minas Gerais e Paracatu, onde se desenvolvem projetos da Universidade Federal de Viçosa fomentando a fruticultura orgânica. Para atender a esses objetivos aplicaram-se as metodologias de análise de processos hierárquicos (MAH) e desdobramento da função de qualidade (QFD). Avaliou-se o potencial de uso dessas ferramentas, bem como sua aplicabilidade como metodologia para a hierarquização da produção de culturas e para a caracterização da qualidade na agroindustrialização de frutas, respectivamente. Foram realizadas duas aplicações do MAH, sendo, portanto montados dois modelos hierárquicos. Em ambos os casos, a metodologia se mostrou útil, por permitir levar em consideração, nos processos decisórios sobre as características das alternativas de produção e processamento consideradas, a opinião de especialistas em fruticultura e de consumidores. Através da aplicação do MAH, chegou-se à conclusão que a cultura com maior chance de ser produzida organicamente nas zonas estudadas seria a manga e que sua polpa orgânica congelada seria a forma de agroindustrialização que os consumidores gostariam, principalmente, de encontrar nas prateleiras das lojas. Por meio do QFD, foram identificados os desejos e necessidades dos consumidores, e foi avaliado o desempenho do produto em estudo (polpa congelada de manga) para cada item de qualidade e o desempenho dos dois produtos concorrentes selecionados (suco de fruta natural e o suco concentrado para diluir). Na pesquisa qualitativa realizada, além de serem identificados os itens de qualidade exigida, foi verificado que 97% dos entrevistados consumiriam produtos orgânicos se estes fossem oferecidos em maior escala a um preço acessível, ainda que mais caros que os convencionais. Os itens de qualidade exigida, levantados na avaliação qualitativa compuseram um questionário estruturado, o qual foi aplicado numa pesquisa quantitativa. Nessa etapa, determinou-se o grau de importância dos itens de qualidade desejados pelos consumidores e o desempenho comparativo entre o produto em estudo e os produtos concorrentes. De posse das características de qualidade exigidas pelos clientes e conhecendo o aprimoramento de cada uma delas, foi possível estabelecer o conceito do produto, que consiste de “uma polpa congelada orgânica para a elaboração de suco, isenta de químicos e agrotóxicos, com alto valor nutricional, excelente aparência e embalagem higiênica com preço acessível a todos os consumidores”. Analisando na Matriz da Qualidade os valores dos pesos relativos de cada característica da qualidade, estabeleceu-se a Qualidade Projetada, permitindo concluir que a manga orgânica a ser industrializada como polpa congelada terá condições de igualar os concorrentes naqueles itens que obteve notas menores e ainda poderá superar um ou os dois concorrentes nos itens como “preço”, “sabor de fruta”, “sabor gostoso”, “rico em nutrientes”, “desenho”, “análises microbiológicas”, “informações no rótulo sobre procedência da fruta” e “informações no rótulo sobre composição da fruta”, além de poder usar como argumento de vendas especial nas suas estratégias de marketing itens tais como “ser nutritivo”, “menor preço” e “livre de químicos e agrotóxicos”. / In view of the potential of fruit cultivation in Brazil, and considering especially the opportunities for organic agro-industrial products based on fruits, the present study has as a general objective to contribute to the efforts of promoting organic fruit growing, through the identification of fruit production and processing alternatives in accordance with characteristics desired by the consumers. This work proposes a methodological process capable to support the development of new organic agro- industrial products under a scientific basis, thus increasing the probabilities of success in the market. The study is focused in the areas of the Zona da Mata and Paracatu, in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, where there are undergoing projects developed by the Federal University of Viçosa fomenting organic fruit growing. To accomplish these objectives, the methodologies of analytical hierarchy processes (MAH) and quality function deployment (QFD) were applied. The potential of use of these tools was evaluated, as well as their applicability as decision support methodologies for production and processing choices among multiple alternatives and for quality characterization in the agro-industrialization of fruits, respectively. Two applications of the MAH were carried out. Hence, two hierarchic models were set. In both cases, the methodology showed its usefulness. It allowed to take into consideration the opinion of specialists in fruit cultivation and the viewpoints of consumers, during the decision making processes regarding the characteristics of different fruit production alternatives and agro-industrial processes considered. Through the application of the MAH, it was arrived to the conclusion that the fruit with better possibility of being produced organically in the zones of the study would be mango and that frozen organic pulp would be the agro-industrial product that consumers would mostly like to find in the markets. Using QFD, wants and needs of consumers were identified. The performance of the product under study (frozen mango pulp) was evaluated for each quality item, as well as the performance of the two selected competing products (natural fruit juice and concentrated juice to be diluted). Through a qualitative consumer survey, it was verified that 97% of the respondents would consume organic products if these were offered in larger scale and at an accessible price, even though at a more expensive level than that for the conventional products. The demanded quality attributes identified in the qualitative evaluation were used to design a structured questionnaire, which was applied in a quantitative survey. In this stage, the degree of importance of the desired quality attributes was determined by consumers and the comparative performance between the product in study and the competing products was judged. Knowing the quality attributes demanded by the customers and knowing the improvements desired for each one of them, it was possible to establish a product concept, that was stated as a "organic frozen pulp for juice processing, free from chemicals and agro-toxics, with high nutritional value, excellent appearance and hygienical packing, with accessible price to all the consumers". Analyzing the Quality Matrix with the values of the relative weights for each quality attribute, the “projected quality” was established. It was concluded that the industrialized organic mango as frozen pulp would have conditions to equally compete with those products that got lower weights in the evaluation and would still be able to outdo one or even two competitors in items such as "price", " fruit flavor", "taste", "rich in nutrients", "design", "microbiological analyses", "information on the label about the origin of the fruit" and "information on the label on composition of the fruit". Moreover, special sales strategies could be developed focusing on items such as "to be nutritional", "lower price" and "free of chemicals and agro-toxics". The study recommendations will be used to guide product development in the above mentioned organic fruit development projects. / Não foi localizado o cpf do autor.

本研究旨在建構一套適用當前教育環境的「國民小學學校效能評鑑指標與權重體系」，以作為未來有效評鑑國民小學辦學績效的基礎。 研究者透過推薦程序，選定教育學者、教育行政人員、小學校長及小學教師等合計138名為參與評定專家，以進行指標可用性及相對權重分配之調查及訪談，並應用卡方考驗、階層分析程序法(AHP) 等進行考驗分析，最後建構完成「國民小學學校效能評鑑指標與權重體系」。研究結果顯示： 一、「國民小學學校效能評鑑指標與權重體系」中，一級指標包含了「教育輸入」、「教育歷程」與「教育產出」。其相對權重分配，「教育輸入」指標為26％，「教育歷程」指標為41％，「教育產出」指標則為33％。 二、一級指標中之教育輸入指標，下轄「發展目標與計畫」、「經費與教學設備」、「教師能力素質」與「學校環境品質」等四個二級指標。其相對權重分配，依序為20％、17％、43％與20％，其下並分別下轄數個三級評鑑指標。 三、一級指標中之教育歷程指標，下轄「校長領導作為」、「學校行政管理」、「學校組織氣氛」與「教師教學品質」等四個二級指標。其相對權重分配，依序為23％、12％、23％與42％，其下並分別下轄三到四個三級評鑑指標。 四、一級指標中之教育產出指標，下轄「發展目標與計畫達成」、「學生成就表現」、「教師專業成長」與「學校社區聲望」等四個二級指標，其相對權重分配，依序為24％、34％、28％與14％，其下並分別下轄二到四個三級評鑑指標。 五、三級評鑑指標項下，並建構有評估細目指標，惟並無相對權重之設計，以符合實務應用時客觀具體與因地制宜之平衡需求。 此外，本研究也針對「學校效能評鑑模式」、「評鑑指標的有效選擇」與「相對權重的理想建構」等進行分析討論。文末並針對實務應用與未來之研究方向等提出具體之建議。 / The purpose of this study aims to establish the evaluation indicators and the weight system of school effectiveness in elementary education. Total of 138 experts were recommended to help developing the evaluation indicators. The subjects consisting of educators, administrators, principals, teachers in elementary schools are implemented with questionnaires and interviews. The main work of these experts was to judge the availability of indicators and the ratio of weights. The results are analyzed by Chi-square test and Analytic Hierarchy　Process（AHP）. The conclusion manifests as follows: 1) the first-order indicators in the weight system for elementary school effectiveness include educational input, educational process, and educational output. The weight for each inidicator is 26%, 41% and 33% respectively. The second-order inidicators and their weights are stated as follows: a.) the "educational input" comprises four second-order indicators: developing goals and planning (20％), expenditure and equipment（17％）, teachers' competence（43％） and environmental quality（20％）. There are three third-order indicators under these second-order indicators. b.) the "educational process" encompasses four second-order indicators: principal's leadership（23％）, administration and management（12％）, school climate (23％) and teaching quality (42%). Each of these indicators contains three or four third-order indicators. c.) the "educational output" contains of four second-order indicators: the developing and achieving goals（24％）, students' performance（34％）, teachers' professional development（28％）, and school's reputation in community (14％). Each of these indicators also contains 2 to 4 third-order indicators. 2.) the reason for the fourth-order indicators not given any weight is to keep the flexibility of this system in various education settings. Besides, this study also discusses the evaluation model of school effectiveness, the effective choice of indicators and the ideal construct of indicator weight. At the end of the study also proposes some concrete suggestions for practice and further study.

This master's thesis is focused on modern methods and tools to support managerial decision-making. The first part of this thesis introduces the basic characteristics related to the management and managerial decision-making that are subsequently extended to the area of modeling, simulation, optimization and multi-criteria decision making. It also outlines the relationship between the managerial decision-making tasks. The second part introduces practical examples which show the connection of these areas. Specifically, they are a colony of ants, traveling salesman problem, a tool AnyLogic, analytic hierarchy process and simulation HealthBound. The thesis is further supplemented by an appropriate software tools to support multi-criteria decision making.