In this thesis, I study three aspects of sell-side analysts’ stock price forecasts, henceforth target prices: analyst teams’ target price forecast characteristics, analysts’ use of information to revise target prices, and determinants of target price disagreement between analysts.The first essay studies the target price forecast performance of team analysts in the UK and finds that teams issue timelier but not less accurate target prices. Unlike evidence from previous studies, my findings suggest that analyst teamwork may improve forecast timeliness without sacrificing forecast accuracy. However, market reactions to team target price revisions are not significantly different from those to individual analyst target price revisions, suggesting that although target prices issued by analyst teams are timelier and not less accurate than those of individual analysts, investors do not consider analyst team target prices more informative. I conjecture that analysts may work in teams to meet the demand to cover more companies while maintaining the quality of research by individual team members rather than to issue more informative reports.In the second essay, I study how analysts revise their target prices in response to new information implicit in recent market returns, stock excess returns and other analysts’ target price revisions. The results suggest that analysts’ target price revisions are significantly influenced by market returns, stock excess return and other analysts’ target price revisions. I also find that the correlation between target price revisions and stock excess returns is significantly higher when the news implicit in these returns is bad rather than good. I conjecture that analysts discover more bad news from the information in stock excess returns because firms tend to withhold bad news, disclosing it only when it becomes inevitable, while they disclose good news early. Using a new measure of bad to good news concentration, I show that the asymmetric responsiveness of target price revisions to positive and negative stock excess returns is significant for firms with the highest concentration of bad news but is insignificant for firms with the lowest concentration of bad news. I argue that firms with the highest concentration of bad news are more likely to withhold and accumulate bad news. The findings, therefore, support my hypothesis that analysts discover more bad news than good news from stock returns because firms tend to withhold bad news, disclosing it only when it is inevitable. The third essay examines the determinants of analyst target price disagreement. I find that while disagreement in short-term earnings and in long-term earnings growth forecasts are significant determinants, recent 12-month idiosyncratic return volatility has the strongest explanatory power for target price disagreement. The findings suggest that target price disagreement is driven not only by analyst disagreement about short-term earnings and long-term earnings growth, but also by differences in analysts’ opinions about the impact of recent firm-specific events on value drivers beyond short-term future earnings and long-term growth, which are eventually reflected in past idiosyncratic return volatility.

This research will contribute to the literature of managerial ability and analyst following as well as narrative disclosure in the following ways. This study is the first to investigate the association between managerial ability and external information intermediaries such as financial analysts to the best of our knowledge. Most of the earlier studies on managerial ability focus on firms’ internal information environment such as operating and financial decisions, and limited studies examine the relation between managerial ability with external perception of the information environment and narrative disclosures. We extend this literature by examining how managerial ability impacts the firm's external information environment, affecting informational intermediaries' work processes, such as financial analysts. We find that managers' higher ability leads to better performance by financial analysts regarding their forecast error, dispersion, and willingness to provide coverage on the firm. We also step further by employing more advanced and novel measures to assess managerial ability's impact on market intermediaries’ external work and perception. Able managers impact reporting informativeness, response time, and the uncertainty of the forecasts from financial analysts. Further, we examine informational channels or mediators (i.e., analyst following and readability of narrative disclosure), highlighting how managerial ability can be linked the better performance by financial analysts. We intend to show how variables like disclosure readability and analyst following mediate between managerial ability and analyst forecast properties (i.e., error and Dispersion). In the last part of the research, we answer how analysts' better performance can be a channel to help able managers increase their firms' value (i.e., analyst’s forecast error acts as the channel from the managerial ability to firm’s performance).

This dissertation consists of two chapters. The first chapter examines the role of growth options on stock return continuation. Growth options are both difficult to value and risky. Daniel, Hirshleifer and Subrahmanyam (1998) argue that higher momentum profits earned by high market-to-book firms stem from investors' higher overconfidence due to the difficulty of valuing growth options. Johnson (2002) and Sagi and Seasholes (2007) offer an alternative rational explanation wherein growth options cause a wider spread in risk and expected returns between winners and losers. This paper suggests that firm-specific uncertainty helps disentangle these two different explanations. Specifically, the rational explanation is at work among firms with low firm specific uncertainty. However, the evidence is in favor of the behavioral explanation for firms with high firm specific uncertainty. This is consistent with the notion that investors are more prone to behavioral biases in the presence of firm-specific uncertainty and the resulting mispricings are less likely to be arbitraged away. The second chapter examines how investors capitalize differences of opinion when disagreements are common knowledge. We conduct an event study of the market's reaction to analysts' dispersed earnings forecast revisions. We find that investors take differences of opinion into account and do not exhibit an optimism bias. Our findings indicate that the overpricing of stocks with high forecast dispersion is not due to investors' tendency to overweight optimistic expectations, but rather due to investor credulity regarding analysts' incentives. Our findings support the notion that assets may become mispriced when rational investors face structural uncertainties as proposed by Brav and Heaton (2002). / Ph. D.

This dissertation examines the characterization of transient investors by financial analysts. Transient investors have been portrayed in the literature as either 1) informed investors or 2) poor monitors. No research to date, however, has examined how financial analysts, who are important information intermediaries, characterize transient investors. A view of transient investors through the lens of a financial analyst is obtained through examining how the presence of transient owners in a firm affects financial analysts' decision making. Specifically, this study examines how transient ownership affects both the propensity of analysts to herd when issuing earnings forecasts for a given firm as well as the incidence with which analysts revise their forecasts when the firm issues earnings guidance. Empirical tests show that financial analysts exhibit a greater propensity to herd when there are transient investors present. The proposed reason for this effect is analysts are herding due to reputational concerns. Further testing, however, does not show that the relation between transient ownership and analyst herding is owed to poor monitoring behavior of transient-owned firms. In contrast, evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that the firm information environment of transient-owned firms is an important cause of analyst herding. In summary, evidence is consistent with the informed investor portrayal of transient investors and there is no evidence indicating financial analysts view transient owners as poor monitors. Finally, when the decision of analysts to issue revised forecasts is examined, it is found that having a higher percentage of the firm owned by dedicated or long-term investors increased the propensity of analysts to issue a revised forecast. Thus, while my analysis is inconsistent with a poor monitoring portrayal of transient investors, results suggest that a dedicated investor base can enhance the perceived credibility of firm disclosures. / Ph. D.

Financial markets have many different key actors, but one of the most important ones are the financial analysts. They are considered as experts in gathering and disseminating the information that firms produce, to those that seek it, such as stock recommendations and reports on firms. Related to this is a growing interest in society toward disclosures in regards of CSR as well as ESG. There has been considerable discussion in academia of whether or not CSR can be considered to be value relevant. This is a question which relate to both institutional and legitimacy perspectives in terms of theory, but also discussions in regards to agency and stakeholder theory as well:   Has value relevance of CSR disclosures increased in stock recommendations for the Nordic markets?   Thereby, the main purpose of this thesis is to find out whether or not there has been a shifting view of CSR over time, which would be evidenced in an increasing legitimization of CSR in terms of an increasing value-relevance to financial analysts. This would also be related to a shifting institutional logic, whereby it would be possible to relate to a shift in the view of the firm and its role in society. This is both looked at purely from the starting point of the dataset to the end point, but also for two different periods of time, so as to test if there is a different view of the issue after the financial crisis. In addition to this main purpose, this thesis furthermore sets out to answer whether CSR is value-relevant or not in different subsegments, such as nations, industries and the different types of recommendations that exist.   To answer the research question, an objectivist and positivist stance is taken, which subsequently leads the authors to utilize quantitative methods and statistical analysis to the data. Here, different panel models are fitted to the data to account effects that exist within it. To explain the findings, a theoretical framework is built upon three different levels: societal, firm and individual level. Here, on the societal level theories such as institutional theory as well as legitimacy theory are dealt with. On the firm level, agency theory and stakeholder theory as well as theoretical views of CSR forms the basis, and the individual level deals with theory related to the financial analyst.   In looking at the results and the analysis, one cannot draw the conclusion that there has been a shifting view of the value-relevance of CSR. Financial analysts appear to not find it value-relevant in issuing their stock recommendations, except for two cases: namely in terms of the industrial sector Basic Materials and the Buy recommendations. In terms of Basic Materials, it appears to be value-relevant in a positive manner. In regards to the Buy recommendation, it appears to have a negative effect on the value-relevance. All in all, this thesis cannot find evidence for a value-relevance of CSR to financial analysts in the Nordic markets. Essentially, the view of it appears to be pessimistic.

Cette thèse de doctorat comprend trois essais relatifs au genre des analystes financiers. Les résultats empiriques de la première étude attestent d'une sous-représentation des femmes analystes et confirment que la culture nationale exerce un impact important sur la représentation des femmes chez les analystes financiers dans les pays européens étudiés. La deuxième étude montre que les analystes hommes sont plus susceptibles de formuler des recommandations innovantes que les analystes femmes, du fait d'une plus forte confiance en leur jugement. Enfin, les conclusions de la troisième étude montrent que les recommandations innovantes déclenchent des réactions plus fortes de la part des investisseurs, mais on ne note aucune différence de genre dans les réactions du marché à ces recommandations innovantes. Les conclusions empiriques de cette thèse complètent la littérature sur les analystes financiers, et plus particulièrement sur l'impact du genre dans la prise de décisions financières. / This PhD dissertation consists of three essays relating to gender concerns among financial analysts. The empirical results of the first study provide evidence for under-representation of female analysts and confirm that national culture exerts a material impact on female representation among financial analysts across European countries under study. In the second study, I document evidence that male analysts are more likely to issue innovative recommendations than female analysts, due to their relative overconfidence. Finally, the findings of third study suggest that innovative recommendations trigger larger market reactions but there is no gender difference in market reactions to innovative recommendations. The empirical findings of my dissertation complement prior literature on financial analysts, more specifically, gender-based difference in financial market decision making.

Denna studie granskar aktieanalytikers arbetsmetodik, deras påverkan på aktiemarknaden samt deras upplevda yrkesproblematik. För att åskådliggöra detta har vi genomfört tio djupintervjuer med aktörer från dagens finansbransch. Fem analytiker från de större analyshusen samt fem experter från diverse relaterade finansområden har intervjuats. Målsättningen är att granska analytiker utifrån dessa tio respondenters olika perspektiv och därmed tydliggöra analytikers roll i det finansiella maskineriet. Detta uppnås genom att fokusera på tre delområden: Hur analytiker faktiskt praktiserar sitt yrke och vad för vetenskaplig förankring de har (1), vad de har för påverkan på aktiemarknaden (2) samt vilka svårigheter de upplever att yrket möter i dagsläget och en nära framtid (3). Studien påvisar att variablerna bakom aktievärderingarna är viktigare än värderingsverktyget i sig. Analytikers verktyg för analys är därför bristande vilket har sitt ursprung i företagsekonomins ofullständiga finansiella teorier. De aktörerna med störst påverkan på marknaden är de professionella och institutionella placerarna. Det framgår även att analytiker inte har någon större påverkan på marknaden, vilket var studiens utgångpunkt. Småsparare bör vara medvetna om dessa fakta och inte blint följa riktkurser eller rekommendationer. Slutligen kan studien påvisa att analytiker inte befinner sig i en helt oberoende ställning gentemot arbetsgivare, kunder och bolagen de analyserar. Att konstant värna om dessa relationer leder till direkta och indirekta agentkostnader som slutligen drabbar kunderna och analyshuset. / This paper examines analysts' methodology, their impact on the stock market and their perceived professional problems. To illustrate this, we have conducted ten interviews with profiles from today's financial industry. Five analysts from larger investment banks and five experts from various related financial areas were interviewed. The goal is to examine analysts from these ten respondents' perspectives and thereby clarify the analyst’s role in the financial machinery. This is achieved by focusing on three areas: How analysts actually practice their profession and what scientific basis they have (1), what their impact on the stock market is (2) and the difficulties they believe that the profession is facing today and in the near future (3). The paper shows that the variables behind set value of the stock are more important than the tools of how to set the value itself. The analysts’ tools for analyzing are therefore lacking which can be derived from the fact that the financial theories within the community of business administration often are incomplete. The profiles with the greatest impact on the market are the professional and institutional investors. Furthermore, the paper shows that analysts do not have a major influence on the market, which was the study's starting point. Small investors should be aware of these facts and not blindly follow target prices or recommendations. Finally, the study shows how analysts do not have an unbiased relationship towards their employers, clients or the companies they analyze. Constantly trying to preserve these relations leads to direct and indirect agency costs that ultimately affect the clients and investment banks.

The future is uncertain. We therefore make predictions and forecasts of the future in order to be able to plan and react to future events. For this purpose, financial analysts are argued to have a responsibility towards investors and the market, in helping to keep the market efficient. Given that financial analysts act in a rational way we argue that analysts should strive to maximize forecast accuracy. The purpose of this study is to investigate how accurate financial analysts’ forecasts of Swedish firms’ future values are, and what information that analysts use that significantly affect the analysts’ forecast accuracy. To investigate this we first examine whether financial analysts contribute with value to investors by comparing their forecast precision against a simple time-series model. Our findings show that financial analysts produce significantly more accurate forecasts than a time-series model in the short term. Furthermore, given that rational analysts act in their own best interest while making accurate forecasts, we argue that analysts will incorporate and use the information that is available to them for the purpose of maximizing forecast accuracy. We investigate this by testing if the analysts’ forecast accuracy is affected by; the forecast horizon, the number of analysts following a firm, the firm size, the corporate visibility, the predictability of earnings, and trading volume. We find that the forecast accuracy is better when the amount of analysts following a firm is high, the firm size is larger, the forecasted company’s corporate visibility in the news is more frequent, and the predictability of earnings is higher. The trading volume does not have a significant effect on analysts’ forecast accuracy. To conclude, we question the value of financial analysts’ forecasts for longer forecast horizons.

Background: The interest in shares has increased over the years, despite several stock market crashes. One reason for this is the emergence of stock trading online,which makes it easier for individuals to trade in shares. However, there has been much criticism towards financial analyst with the lack of fundamental basis to support their recommendations. Objective: The purpose of this study is to examine the share valuation models swedish financial analysts today applies and consider appropriate. A comparison will also be carried out in previous studies, to see if the application of the modelsand their suitability has changed. Method: The study used a qualitative approach with deductive approach. Semistructured interviews were conducted and the basis for the study's primary data.The theories and previous studies obtained through secondary data. Results: Our results demonstrate that no single model applied, is appropriate. Therefore, the financial analyst combines the models. Financial analysts place great emphasis on the macro-economic aspects in the valuation of shares. Macroeconomic analyses underlying fundamental valuation models.

Knowledge workers are an important resource for the typical modern business firm, yet financial reporting ignores such resources. Some researchers contend that the accounting profession has stressed reliability in order to make the accounting appear objective. Others concur, noting that accounting is an insecure profession and adopts strict rules when faced with uncertainty. Accountants have promulgated a strict rule to expense human resource costs, although many know that such resources have future benefits. Some researchers suggest that any discipline must modify its language in order to initiate change toward providing useful social ameliorations. If accounting theorists extend this idea to the accounting lexicon.s description of investments in human resources, investors and other accounting user groups might gain greater insight into how a firm fosters and nourishes human capital. I tested three hypotheses related to this issue by administering an experiment designed to assess financial analysts. perceptions about alternative financial statement treatments of human resources in an investment recommendation task. I predicted that (1) analysts' perceptions of the reliability (relevance) of the information they received would decrease (increase) as the treatment of human resources increasingly violated GAAP (became more current-oriented), (2) analysts exposed to alternative accounting treatments would report a lower likelihood of recommending that their clients invest in the company in the task, and (3) financial analysts who ranked reliability (relevance) as a more important information quality would be less (more) likely to recommend that their clients buy the stock represented in the case because the treatment of human resources on the financial statements violated GAAP (was more current-oriented) as compared to analysts who ranked reliability (relevance) as being lower (higher) in importance. Analysts receiving financial statements with accounting treatments of human resource costs that violated GAAP judged such information as less reliable and were also less likely to recommend that their clients buy the stock in the task than analysts receiving financial statements that conformed to GAAP. Also, analysts who perceived reliability as a more important information quality reacted more negatively to a replacement cost approach to accounting for human resources than participants who perceived reliability as being less important. A potential confounding explanation of the results is the varied language used in the audit opinions included with the treatment financial statements. Whether explained by the audit opinion language or the actual differences contained in the financial statements, the results suggest that an important user group, financial analysts, may be subject to the aura of objectivity suggested by Porter in 1995.