This thesis models the Australian-US Dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate with particular attention being paid to investor risk aversion. Accounting for investor risk aversion in AUD/USD exchange rate modelling is novel, so too is the method used to measure risk aversion in this thesis. Investor risk aversion is measured using a technique developed in Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004), which makes use of Probability Density Functions (PDFs) extracted from option markets. More conventional approaches use forward-market pricing or Uncovered Interest Parity. Several methods of estimating PDFs from option and spot markets are examined, with the estimations from currency spot-markets representing an original application of an arbitrage technique developed in Stutzer (1996) to the AUD/USD exchange rate. The option and spot-market PDFs are compared using their first four moments and if estimated judiciously, the spot-market PDFs are found to have similar shapes to the option-market PDFs. So in the absence of an AUD/USD exchange rate options market, spot-market PDFs can act as a reasonable substitute for option-market PDFs for the purpose of examining market sentiment. The Relative Risk Aversion (RRA) attached to the AUD/USD, the US Dollar-Japanese Yen, the US Dollar-Swiss Franc and the US-Canadian Dollar exchange rates is measured using the Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004) technique. Amongst these exchange rates, only the AUD/USD exchange rate demonstrates a significant level of investor RRA and only over a weekly forecast horizon. The Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004) technique is also used to approximate a time-varying risk premium for the AUD/USD exchange rate. This risk premium is added to the cointegrating vectors of fixed-price and asset monetary models of the AUD/USD exchange rate. An index of Australia???s export commodity prices is also added. The out-of-sample forecasting ability of these cointegrating vectors is tested relative to a random walk using an error-correction framework. While adding the time-varying risk premium improves this forecasting ability, adding export commodity prices does so by more. Further, including both the time-varying risk premium and export commodity prices in the cointegrating vectors reduces their forecasting ability. So the time-varying risk premium is important for AUD/USD exchange rate modelling, but not as important as export commodity prices.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Tufts University, 2004. / Adviser: Joseph Litvak. Submitted to the Dept. of English. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 295-301). Access restricted to members of the Tufts University community. Also available via the World Wide Web;

Techn. Univ., Diss/2004--Darmstadt, 2003.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Wollongong, 2007. / Typescript. Includes bibliographical references: leaf 168-189.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Columbia University, 1941. / Lithoprinted. Vita. Bibliography: p. 257-263.

Thesis (doctoral)--Technische Universität, Darmstadt, 2003/2004. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 274-290) and index.

ABSTRACT “Almost all places are in trouble, but some are in more trouble than others" Kotler, Haider & Rein (1993) Kotler, Haider & Rein (1993) contend that all places are in trouble now, or will be in the near future. The onset of globalisation of the world's economy, country political dynamics and the accelerating pace of technological changes are some of the forces that require all places to learn how to compete on the world arena. Porter (1990) states that the framework for understanding a company’s sources of competitive advantage can be extended to the level of nations. It is basically concerned with the question as to why some nations succeed in global competition when others fail. Nations must learn how to think more like businesses if they are to survive and should begin by identifying their competitive advantages and building on them. As countries compete for inward investment, tourism and export of goods and services- success or failure can accurately be chartered, and questions of reputation, image, identity and hence marketing and branding become central to the competitive edge (Olins, 1999). Faced with the challenge of a negative image, a country must adopt a proactive stance to correct this image. This is where the question of country branding comes in. Branding a country for many is misconstrued and interpreted to simply mean designing a new logo for their country and possibly a slogan to go underneath it. However country-banding proponents highlight that there is a difference between nation branding and tourism promotion. It helps even less that there are so many communications agencies that perhaps frustrated by lack of pure strategy capacity to sell to governments, have fallen into the habit of i Sibonokuhle GUMPO - 34462481 pandering to this misconception and simply selling logos and slogans to any government prepared to buy them (Anholt, 2003). However faced with the urgent need to address the crippling impact of a negative image, countries like Zimbabwe cannot simply wait and expect things to turn out for the better. Kotler et al (1993) stress that places are not able to respond to negative images concerning their nations as quickly as negative perceptions are built, be it through media, word of mouth or other channels. As a result the importance of a pro-active response cannot be overemphasized. This study explores the current negative image of Zimbabwe and tries to define the root or source of this negative image. Having defined or spelt out what is thought to be the problem, the researcher than explores possible ways of how the stakeholders of Zimbabwe can rebrand their country reflecting on known success stories. Kotler et al (1993) contend that the central tenet of marketing places is that in spite of the powerful internal and external forces that buffet them, places have within their collective resources and people the capacity to improve their relative competitive positions. Zimbabweans in general believe that their situation has been sensationalised by the media and is not a reflection of what is on the ground. By adopting a proactive stance in rebranding their country, Zimbabweans will perhaps finally realise that when it comes to image, “being in possession of the truth is not enough, the truth has to be sold” (Anholt,all places are in trouble now, or will be in the near future. The onset of globalisation of the world's economy, country political dynamics and the accelerating pace of technological changes are some of the forces that require all places to learn how to compete on the world arena. Porter (1990) states that the framework for understanding a company’s sources of competitive advantage can be extended to the level of nations. It is basically concerned with the question as to why some nations succeed in global competition when others fail. Nations must learn how to think more like businesses if they are to survive and should begin by identifying their competitive advantages and building on them. As countries compete for inward investment, tourism and export of goods and services- success or failure can accurately be chartered, and questions of reputation, image, identity and hence marketing and branding become central to the competitive edge (Olins, 1999). Faced with the challenge of a negative image, a country must adopt a proactive stance to correct this image. This is where the question of country branding comes in. Branding a country for many is misconstrued and interpreted to simply mean designing a new logo for their country and possibly a slogan to go underneath it. However country-banding proponents highlight that there is a difference between nation branding and tourism promotion. It helps even less that there are so many communications agencies ABSTRACT “Almost all places are in trouble, but some are in more trouble than others" Kotler, Haider & Rein (1993) Kotler, Haider & Rein (1993) contend that all places are in trouble now, or will be in the near future. The onset of globalisation of the world's economy, country political dynamics and the accelerating pace of technological changes are some of the forces that require all places to learn how to compete on the world arena. Porter (1990) states that the framework for understanding a company’s sources of competitive advantage can be extended to the level of nations. It is basically concerned with the question as to why some nations succeed in global competition when others fail. Nations must learn how to think more like businesses if they are to survive and should begin by identifying their competitive advantages and building on them. As countries compete for inward investment, tourism and export of goods and services- success or failure can accurately be chartered, and questions of reputation, image, identity and hence marketing and branding become central to the competitive edge (Olins, 1999). Faced with the challenge of a negative image, a country must adopt a proactive stance to correct this image. This is where the question of country branding comes in. Branding a country for many is misconstrued and interpreted to simply mean designing a new logo for their country and possibly a slogan to go underneath it. However country-banding proponents highlight that there is a difference between nation branding and tourism promotion. It helps even less that there are so many communications agencies that perhaps frustrated by lack of pure strategy capacity to sell to governments, have fallen into the habit of i Sibonokuhle GUMPO - 34462481 pandering to this misconception and simply selling logos and slogans to any government prepared to buy them (Anholt, 2003). However faced with the urgent need to address the crippling impact of a negative image, countries like Zimbabwe cannot simply wait and expect things to turn out for the better. Kotler et al (1993) stress that places are not able to respond to negative images concerning their nations as quickly as negative perceptions are built, be it through media, word of mouth or other channels. As a result the importance of a pro-active response cannot be overemphasized. This study explores the current negative image of Zimbabwe and tries to define the root or source of this negative image. Having defined or spelt out what is thought to be the problem, the researcher than explores possible ways of how the stakeholders of Zimbabwe can rebrand their country reflecting on known success stories. Kotler et al (1993) contend that the central tenet of marketing places is that in spite of the powerful internal and external forces that buffet them, places have within their collective resources and people the capacity to improve their relative competitive positions. Zimbabweans in general believe that their situation has been sensationalised by the media and is not a reflection of what is on the ground. By adopting a proactive stance in rebranding their country, Zimbabweans will perhaps finally realise that when it comes to image, “being in possession of the truth is not enough, the truth has to be sold” (Anholt, / Graduate School of Business Leadership / MBL

Cette thèse est divisée en deux sections. La première section adresse la question sur les conséquences des interventions des politiques budgétaires sur l'économie et la deuxième section traite de la problématique de la liquidité des titres européens de la dette souveraine pendant la récente crise financière, l'effet d'un choc de liquidité sur ces titres et les conséquences des réponses politiques. Le premier chapitre étudie l'impact d'un choc de politique budgétaire discrétionnaire sur l'activité économique et d'autres variables macroéconomiques en utilisant une approche alternative à deux étapes pour l'identification d'un choc budgétaire. Le deuxième chapitre analyse conjointement les effets d'une combinaison de chocs de politique fiscale et monétaire sur les variables macroéconomiques et financières, en utilisant un modèle de Time- V arying Parameters Factor Augmented Vector (TVP-F A V AR). Le troisième chapitre étudie le rôle des titres de la dette souveraine comme collatéral dans le marché interbancaire . En particulier, dans le marché dès pensions livrées, on montre comment une augmentation des marges initiales des pensions livrées, peut représenter un canal dans la transmission des crises bancaires aux crises de la dette souveraine dans les pays de la périphérie de la zone euro. Une augmentation des marges initiales des pensions livrées, qui ont comme collatéraux les titres de la dette souveraine peut être modélisée comme un choc de liquidité sur les titres de la dette souveraine. Le quatrième chapitre analyse l'impact de ce choc dans un modèle stochastique dynamique d'équilibre général (DSGE) avec frictions financières et analyse les conséquences des mesures économiques non-conventionnelles pour restaurer la liquidité dans les marchés financiers. / This dissertation is divided in two sections. The first section addresses the question of the consequences of fiscal policy interventions on the economy and the second section analyzes the issue of the liquidity of European Government bonds during the recent financial crisis, the effect ofliquidity shock on these securities and consequences ofpolicy responses. The frrst chapter studies the impact of a discretionary government spending shock on economic activity and other macroeconomic variables by using an alternative two-step procedure for the identification of the govemment spending shock. The second chapter analyzes the effects of a combination of fiscal and monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic and financial variables using a Time Varying Parameters Factor Augmented VAR (TVP-FA VAR) mode!. The third chapter investigates the European market of repurchase agreements and shows that government bonds represent a key fraction of the collateral in these transactions. lt also examines the effects of a rise in haircuts on the value of govemment bonds and shows that this mechanism may represent a channel in the transmission mechanism of banking and sovereign-debt crises in the periphery of the Eurozone. Following the empirical findings of the third chapter, the last chapter proposes a DSGE model with financial frictions to assess the impact of a negative liquidity shock and the consequences ofunconventional policy.

Le but de cette thèse est d’approfondir les connaissances académiques sur les variations jointes des actifs financiers à haute fréquence en les analysant sous un point de vue novateur. Nous tirons profit d’une base de données de prix tick-by-tick pour mettre en lumière de nouveaux faits stylises sur la corrélation haute fréquence, et également pour tester la validité empirique de modèles multivariés. Dans le chapitre 1, nous discutons des raisons pour lesquelles la corrélation haute fréquence est d’une importance capitale pour le trading. Par ailleurs, nous passons en revue la littérature empirique et théorique sur la corrélation à de petites échelles de temps. Puis nous décrivons les principales caractéristiques du jeu de données que nous utilisons. Enfin, nous énonçons les résultats obtenus dans cette thèse. Dans le chapitre 2, nous proposons une extension du modèle de subordination au cas multivarié. Elle repose sur la définition d’un temps événementiel global qui agrège l’activité financière de tous les actifs considérés. Nous testons la capacité de notre modèle à capturer les propriétés notables de la distribution multivariée empirique des rendements et observons de convaincantes similarités. Dans le chapitre 3, nous étudions les relations lead/lag à haute fréquence en utilisant un estimateur de fonction de corrélation adapte aux données tick-by-tick. Nous illustrons sa supériorité par rapport à l’estimateur standard de corrélation pour détecter le phénomène de lead/lag. Nous établissons un parallèle entre le lead/lag et des mesures classiques de liquidité et révélons un arbitrage pour déterminer les paires optimales pour le trading de lead/lag. Enfin, nous évaluons la performance d’un indicateur basé sur le lead/lag pour prévoir l’évolution des prix à court terme. Dans le chapitre 4, nous nous intéressons au profil saisonnier de la corrélation intra-journalière. Nous estimons ce profil sur quatre univers d’actions et observons des ressemblances frappantes. Nous tentons d’incorporer ce fait stylise dans un modèle de prix tick-by-tick base sur des processus de Hawkes. Le modèle ainsi construit capture le profil de corrélation empirique assez finement, malgré sa difficulté à atteindre le niveau de corrélation absolu. / This thesis aims at providing insight into comovements of financial assets at high frequency from an original point of view. We take advantage of a database of tick-by-tick prices to bring to light new stylized facts on high frequency correlation as well as to check the empirical validity of multivariate modelling frameworks. In chapter 1, we elaborate on the reasons why high frequency correlation is of the utmost importance for trading purposes. We also briefly review the empirical and theoretical literature on correlation at small time scales. Then, we describe the main features of the data set we use. Finally, we enunciate the results obtained in this thesis. In chapter 2, we suggest a way of extending the subordination modelling to the multivariate case. This relies on the definition of a global event time that merges the trading activity of all assets under consideration. We test the ability of our model to capture salient features of the empirical multivariate probability distribution of returns and find a convincing agreement. In chapter 3, we study high frequency lead/lag relationships using a suitable cross-correlation estimator for tick-by-tick data. We show its superiority over the classical correlation estimator in detecting lead/lag patterns. We relate lead/lag to standard liquidity measures and exhibit a trade-off to find optimal pairs for lead/lag trading. Finally, we evaluate the performance of a lead/lag indicator in forecasting the short-term evolution of prices. In chapter 4, we focus on the intraday correlation seasonal pattern. We estimate this pattern over four universes of stocks and observe striking similarities. We attempt to incorporate this stylized fact into a tick-by-tick price model based upon Hawkes processes. The resulting model captures the empirical profile of correlation quite well, though it doesn’t match the absolute level of correlation.

The recent financial crisis has brought to the fore the need to better understand systemic risk, that is, the risk of collapse of a large part of the financial system and its potential effects on the real economy. In this thesis, we argue that a proper assessment of systemic risk must include an analysis of the network of interdependencies that exists between the different financial institutions. In fact, today's level of financial interconnectedness between and among markets has proven to have ambiguous effects. On the one hand, a highly connected system allows to diversify risk at the micro level. On the other hand, too much interdependencies provide various paths for contagion to take place and propagate at the macro level. In what follows, we analyze financial markets as networks of interactions and dependencies between financial agents. Through this lens, we investigate three major aspects: (i) how the structure of financial networks can amplify or mitigate the propagation of financial distress, (ii) what are the implications for macro-prudential regulation and (iii) which patterns of interactions characterize real financial networks.We start out by delivering a stability analysis of a network model of interbank contagion that accounts for panics and bank runs. We identify the effects of market architecture, banks' capital ratios, market liquidity and shocks. Our results show that no single network architecture is always superior to others. In particular, highly concentrated networks can both be the most robust and the most fragile depending on other market characteristics, mainly, liquidity.We then move on to tackle issues related to the building of regulatory frameworks that adequately account for the effects of financial interdependencies. We propose a new methodology to compute individual and systemic probabilities of default and show that certain network characteristics give rise to uncertainty. More precisely, we find that network cycles are responsible for the emergence of multiple equilibria even in the presence of complete knowledge. In turn, multiple equilibria give rise to uncertainty for the regulator in the determination of default probabilities. We also quantify the effects of network structures, leverage, volatility and correlations.Having introduced a way to overcome multiplicity, we deliver a method that quantifies the price of complexity in financial markets based on the above mentioned model. This method consists of determining the scope of possible levels of systemic risk that can be obtained when some parameters are subject to small deviations from their true value. The results show a price to the interconnected nature of credit markets even when the equilibrium is unique: small errors can lead to large mistakes in measuring the likelihood of systemic default. Extending the model to account for derivative contracts, we show that error effects increase dramatically as more types of contracts are present in the system. While there is an intuition for such phenomenon, our framework formalizes the idea and quantifies its determinants.In the last part of this thesis, we contribute to the quantitative analysis of real financial networks. We start with a temporal network analysis of one of the major national interbank markets, that is, the German interbank market. We report on the structural evolution of two of the most important over-the-counter markets for liquidity: the interbank market for credit and for derivatives. We find that the majority of interactions is concentrated onto a set of few market participants. There also exists an important correlation between the borrowing and lending activities for each bank in terms of numbers of counterparties. In contrast with other works, we find little impact of the 2008 crisis on the structure of the credit market. The derivative market however exhibits a peak of concentration in the run up to the crisis. Globally, both markets exhibit large levels of stability for most of the network metrics and high correlation amongst them.Finally, we analyze how banks interact with the real economy by investigating the network of loans from banks to industries in Japan. We find evidence of a particular structure of interactions resulting from the coexistence of specific strategies both on the lending side and the borrowing side: generalist agents and specialist agents. Generalist banks have a diversified portfolio (i.e. they provide liquidity to almost all industries) while specialist banks focus their activity on a narrow set of industries. Similarly, generalists industries obtain credit from all banks while specialist industries have a restricted number of creditors. Moreover, the arrangement of interactions is such that specialists tend to only interact with generalists from the other side. Our model allows to structurally characterize highly persistent, and economically meaningful, sets of generalists and specialists. We further provide an analysis of the factors that predict whether a given bank or industry is a generalist. We show that size is an important determinant, both for banks and industries, but we also highlight additional relevant factors. Finally, we find that generalist banks tend to be less vulnerable. Hence, how banks position themselves in the network has important implications for their risk profile. Overall the results presented in this thesis highlight the complex role played by financial interlinkages. Therefore, they demonstrate the need to embed the network dimension in the regulatory framework to properly assess the stability profile of financial systems. Such findings are relevant for both theoretical modeling and empirical investigations. We believe that they also shed light on crucial aspects of systemic risk relevant for policy making and regulation of today's complex financial systems. / Doctorat en Sciences de l'ingénieur et technologie / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished