Associated with climate change are the rising frequency, probability, and intensity of natural hazards, as stated by IPCC (2014). To contribute to the evaluation of climate change consequences, we study the impact of river floods caused by torrential rain periods, which are supposed to become and already are one of the major future challenges. Since subsequent flood and adaptation measures are usually interdependent, identifying causal effects is the main challenge. Therefore we investigate a sequence of river floods and subsequent adaption measures in a natural experiment setting. Our study area is the city of Dresden, Germany in the time period from 2000 until 2017. Remarkable in this setting is the exogeneity of the first flood event in 2002 that hit the city unexpectedly after 60 years without considerable flood events. We use a complete set of lot transactions from 2000 until 2017 to study the effect of these events on lot prices. The basis of our identification strategy is a Difference-in-Differences design in which we control for an unstable assignment to treatment and control group. Additionally we consider the heterogeneity of the treatment, which is caused by the varying intensity levels during a flood. It shows that flood risk is incorporated into lot prices only after awareness is risen due to a sudden flood event and that a higher expected intensity increases discounts. A long-term effect can be verified once we control for adaption, such as public protection measures. / Naturkatastrophen in zunehmender Wahrscheinlichkeit, Häufigkeit und Intensität sind laut IPCC (2014) wesentliche Konsequenzen des Klimawandels. Mit unserer Untersuchung der Auswirkungen von Hochwasserereignissen an Flüssen leisten wir einen Beitrag zur Bewertung der Folgen des Klimawandels. Dabei fokussieren wir uns auf Hochwasserereignisse, die durch sintflutartige Regenperioden verursacht werden und zu einer der größten zukünftigen Herausforderungen zählen. Aufgrund der Abhängigkeit von Hochwasserereignissen und Flutschutzmaßnahmen ist die Identifikation kausaler Effekte nicht trivial. Im Rahmen eines natürlichen Experiments untersuchen wir eine Abfolge von Hochwasserereignissen und daraufhin geplanten sowie umgesetzten öffentlichen Flutschutzmaßnahmen. Unser Untersuchungsgebiet ist die Stadt Dresden in der Zeitperiode von 2000 bis 2017. Bemerkenswert in dieser Region ist die Exogenität des ersten betrachteten Hochwasserereignisses im Jahr 2002, welches die Stadt nach einer 60 Jahre andauernden Periode ohne nennenswerte Hochwasserereignisse vollkommen unerwartet traf. Unserer empirischen Untersuchung liegt ein vollständiger Datensatz von Grundstückstransaktionen der Jahre 2000 bis 2017 zugrunde. Mithilfe dessen untersuchen wir innerhalb eines hedonischen Preismodells die Auswirkungen dieser Ereignisse auf Grundstückspreise. Die Basis unserer Identifikationsstrategie ist ein Difference-inDifferences-Design. Innerhalb dessen kontrollieren wir für die sich im Zeitverlauf ändernde Definition von Treatment- und Kontrollgruppe. Zusätzlich berücksichtigen wir die horizontale Heterogenität des Treatments, welche sich durch verschiedene Überflutungsintensitäten äußert. Es zeigt sich, dass ein gegebenes Hochwasserrisiko sich erst dann in Grundstückspreisen niederschlägt, wenn ein Bewusstsein für dieses existierende Risiko durch ein plötzliches Hochwasserereignis geschaffen wird. Außerdem geht eine höhere erwartete Hochwasserintensität mit einem größeren Preisabschlag einher. Weiterhin können wir, unter Berücksichtigung öffentlicher Flutschutzmaßnahmen und wiederkehrenden Flutereignissen, einen langfristig andauernden Preisabschlag nachweisen.

This interdisciplinary doctoral dissertation addresses land subsidence in different and diverse study cases in the world, employing advanced techniques and methodologies to measure their magnitude and comprehensively explore its causes, and implications. Investigating areas such as the San Luis Potosi metropolitan area, Alaşehir-Sarıgöl sub-basin (ASSB) in Türkiye, and the Alto Guadalentín Valley in Spain, the research unveils critical insights into the complex dynamics of subsidence phenomena. Utilizing advanced remote sensing techniques like Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) and Coherent Pixels Technique (CPT), the study assesses subsidence rates and correlates them with factors such as trace faults, groundwater extraction, and soft soil thickness. Validation methodologies were developed and proposed to the scientific community on the first stage, integrating Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) benchmarks, enhance the reliability of Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR) measurements, ensuring a robust foundation for subsequent analyses. The research aims to contribute to the understanding of land subsidence and contribute to create a decision-support framework to mitigate the phenomenon while addressing specific research objectives within each identified topic of inquiry. The research topic 1 includes the “DInSAR for monitoring land subsidence in overexploited aquifers”. In the San Luis Potosi metropolitan area (Mexico), the application of CPT technique reveals intriguing correlations between trace faults, land subsidence, and groundwater extraction. Specifically, areas in the municipality of Soledad de Graciano Sánchez exhibit subsidence values ranging between -1.5 and -3.5 cm/year, while in San Luis Potosi, values range from -1.8 to -4.2 cm/year. The validation of CPT results against five Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) benchmarks establishes a robust correlation of 0.986, underlining the reliability of InSAR-derived deformations. Additionally, in regions like the Alaşehir-Sarıgöl sub-basin (Türkiye), where water stress is heightened due to intensive agricultural irrigation, the study explores the roles of tectonic activity and groundwater withdrawal in land subsidence. Utilizing the P-SBAS algorithm, 98 Sentinel-1 SAR images in ascending orbits and 123 in descending orbits were analysed, covering the period from 2016 to 2020. Independent Component Analysis was applied to distinguish long-term displacements from seasonal variations in the DInSAR time series data. Displacement rates of up to -6.40 cm/year were identified, thus, the proposed P-SBAS algorithm facilitates the monitoring of displacement, revealing direct correlations between DInSAR displacement and critical factors like aquitard layer compaction. These findings contribute valuable insights into the dynamic interactions shaping overexploited aquifers. The research topic 2, developing parallelly to topic 1, consists of the “Validation of DInSAR data applied to land subsidence areas”. Addressing the imperative for validation methodologies in subsidence assessments, a systematic approach introduces statistical analyses and classification schemes. This methodology is designed to validate and refine DInSAR data, enhancing the reliability of subsidence assessments. By normalizing Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) parameters with the range and average of in-situ deformation values and employing the squared Pearson correlation coefficient (R²), a classification scheme is established. This scheme facilitates the acceptance/rejection of DInSAR data for further analyses through the application of automatic analysis supported by a Matlab © code, ensuring a more accurate representation of land subsidence phenomena. The research topic 3 covers the exploitation of DInSAR data for assessing flooding potential and determining characteristic parameters of aquifer systems. The first one is “Impact of land subsidence on flood patterns”. The study in the Alto Guadalentín Valley, a region experiencing extreme flash floods jointly with high-magnitude land subsidence, integrates flood event models, Differential interferometric SAR (DInSAR) techniques, and 2D hydraulic flow models. Through Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite images and DInSAR, land subsidence's magnitude and spatial distribution are quantified. The results demonstrate significant changes in water surface elevation between the two 1992 and 2016 temporal scenarios, leading to a 2.04 km² increase in areas with water depths exceeding 0.7 m. These outcomes, incorporated into a flood risk map and economic flood risk assessment, underscore the pivotal role of land subsidence in determining inundation risk and its socio-economical implications. The research offers a valuable framework for enhancing flood modelling by considering the intricate dynamics of land subsidence. The second application of DInSAR data is about the “Automatic calculation of skeletal storage coefficients in aquifer systems”. In response to the need for automating data analysis for specific storage coefficients in aquifer systems, a MATLAB© application is introduced. This application streamlines the correlation between piezometric levels and ground deformation, significantly reducing analysis time and mitigating potential human interpretation errors. The developed application integrates temporal groundwater level series from observation wells and ground deformation data measured by in-situ or remote sensing techniques (e.g., DInSAR). Through the automatic construction of stress-strain curves, the application contributes to the estimation of skeletal storage coefficients, offering a valuable tool for evaluating aquifer system behaviours. This comprehensive research, guided by the complexities of these three distinct research topics, yields detailed insights and methodological advancements. By integrating diverse datasets and employing advanced techniques, this dissertation offers a multidimensional understanding of land subsidence dynamics and provides a robust foundation for sustainable groundwater management globally. / This research is funded by the PRIMA Programme supported by the European Union (Grant agreement 1924), project RESERVOIR.

La succession de plus en plus fréquente d’événements catastrophiques a amené les sociétés à poser les conditions d’une gestion proactive des risques « naturels ». Ainsi, dans une perspective exploratoire, nous étudions les processus de planification du rétablissement postcatastrophe et la place qu’occupe le concept de résilience urbaine au sein des pratiques de cette planification et des contenus et produits qui en sont issus. Nous entamons plus spécifiquement une réflexion entourant l’intelligibilité et l’opérationnalisation de la résilience. Pour ce faire, nous examinons deux cas signifiants d’inondation dans l’historique nord-américain, soit celui de la Nouvelle-Orléans en Louisiane et celui de la ville québécoise de La Baie, ayant été respectivement victimes des ouragans Katrina et Rita en 2005 et des pluies diluviennes de 1996. Après avoir procédé à une brève mise en contexte des désastres éprouvés, de leurs effets et des vulnérabilités physico-spatiales qu’ils ont mis en exergue, nous mettons en parallèle les logiques institutionnelles précatastrophe d’aménagement du territoire, d’urbanisme et de gestion des risques des villes. Nous observons ensuite l’évolution des deux processus de planification du rétablissement et les enjeux et débats qui les ont caractérisés, pour terminer avec une exposition des changements résilients qui en ont émané. Les deux derniers chapitres démontrent que la qualité de résilience des villes est fortement influencée par leurs cultures politiques, administratives et législatives propres et leurs traditions urbanistiques. Bien qu’elles aient su élaborer une stratégie de prévention des risques, qui accepte les inondations plutôt que de tenter de s’y opposer à tout prix, elles n’ont toutefois pas saisi l’entièreté des opportunités qui s’offraient à elles. / A higher rate of catastrophic events has brought societies to set out the conditions of proactive “natural” risk management. As a result, and from an exploratory perspective, we are studying post-disaster recovery planning processes and the importance of the concept of urban resilience in these planning practices as well as the contents and products which stem from it. More specifically, we begin reflecting upon the intelligibility and operationalization of resilience. To do so, we will focus on two significant cases of flooding in North America: New Orleans, Louisiana, and the city of La Baie, Quebec, which were respectively victims of hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 and of torrential rain in 1996. After a brief contextualization of these disasters, of their effects and of the physico-spatial vulnerabilities that they highlighted, we will link pre-disaster institutional logic regarding territorial planning, urban planning, and city risk management. Next, we observe the evolution of these two recovery planning processes as well as their characteristic issues and debates, finishing with a overview of subsequent resiliency changes. The last two chapters demonstrate that the quality of resilience of cities is strongly influenced by political, administrative and legislative culture as well as urban traditions. While they were able to design risk prevention strategies which accept flooding rather than trying to oppose it at all costs, they did not fully grasp all the opportunities that were offered to them.

La succession de plus en plus fréquente d’événements catastrophiques a amené les sociétés à poser les conditions d’une gestion proactive des risques « naturels ». Ainsi, dans une perspective exploratoire, nous étudions les processus de planification du rétablissement postcatastrophe et la place qu’occupe le concept de résilience urbaine au sein des pratiques de cette planification et des contenus et produits qui en sont issus. Nous entamons plus spécifiquement une réflexion entourant l’intelligibilité et l’opérationnalisation de la résilience. Pour ce faire, nous examinons deux cas signifiants d’inondation dans l’historique nord-américain, soit celui de la Nouvelle-Orléans en Louisiane et celui de la ville québécoise de La Baie, ayant été respectivement victimes des ouragans Katrina et Rita en 2005 et des pluies diluviennes de 1996. Après avoir procédé à une brève mise en contexte des désastres éprouvés, de leurs effets et des vulnérabilités physico-spatiales qu’ils ont mis en exergue, nous mettons en parallèle les logiques institutionnelles précatastrophe d’aménagement du territoire, d’urbanisme et de gestion des risques des villes. Nous observons ensuite l’évolution des deux processus de planification du rétablissement et les enjeux et débats qui les ont caractérisés, pour terminer avec une exposition des changements résilients qui en ont émané. Les deux derniers chapitres démontrent que la qualité de résilience des villes est fortement influencée par leurs cultures politiques, administratives et législatives propres et leurs traditions urbanistiques. Bien qu’elles aient su élaborer une stratégie de prévention des risques, qui accepte les inondations plutôt que de tenter de s’y opposer à tout prix, elles n’ont toutefois pas saisi l’entièreté des opportunités qui s’offraient à elles. / A higher rate of catastrophic events has brought societies to set out the conditions of proactive “natural” risk management. As a result, and from an exploratory perspective, we are studying post-disaster recovery planning processes and the importance of the concept of urban resilience in these planning practices as well as the contents and products which stem from it. More specifically, we begin reflecting upon the intelligibility and operationalization of resilience. To do so, we will focus on two significant cases of flooding in North America: New Orleans, Louisiana, and the city of La Baie, Quebec, which were respectively victims of hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 and of torrential rain in 1996. After a brief contextualization of these disasters, of their effects and of the physico-spatial vulnerabilities that they highlighted, we will link pre-disaster institutional logic regarding territorial planning, urban planning, and city risk management. Next, we observe the evolution of these two recovery planning processes as well as their characteristic issues and debates, finishing with a overview of subsequent resiliency changes. The last two chapters demonstrate that the quality of resilience of cities is strongly influenced by political, administrative and legislative culture as well as urban traditions. While they were able to design risk prevention strategies which accept flooding rather than trying to oppose it at all costs, they did not fully grasp all the opportunities that were offered to them.