Loss prevention and distribution must begin well before a flood event at multiple levels. However, the benchmarks and terminology we use to manage and communicate flood risk may be working against this goal. U.S. flood policy is based upon a flood with a one percent chance of occurring in any year. Commonly called the "hundred year flood," it has been upheld as a policy criterion, but many have questioned the effectiveness of hundred year flood terminology in public communication. This research examined public perceptions of the hundred year flood and evaluated the comparative effectiveness of this term and two other methods used to frame the benchmark flood: a flood with a one percent chance of occurring in any year and a flood with a 26 percent chance of occurring in thirty years. This research also explored how flooding and flood risk messages fit into the larger context of people's lives by modeling the relationships between flood related understanding, attitude and behavior and the situational and cognitive contexts in which these factors are embedded. The final goal was to come up with locally based suggestions for improving flood risk communication. Data were collected in the Towns of Union and Vestal, New York. Participants were adult residents of single family homes living in one of two FEMA designated floodplains. Face to face surveys and focus groups were used to gather information on respondents' flood experience and loss mitigation activities; general perception of flood risk and cause; flood information infrastructure; perceptions associated with specific flood risk descriptions; and basic demographic data. Focus groups were also asked to suggest improvements to flood risk communication. Results indicated that experience was the most influential factor in perception and behavior. Additionally, there was little evidence that understanding led to "appropriate" behavior. The 26 percent chance description was the most effective when both understanding and persuasion were included, but interpretations of probabilistic flood risk messages were highly individualized. Finally, regulatory practice likely influences attitude and behavior and may emphasize the likelihood of a particular flood at the expense of the possibility of flooding in general.

In response to the rising costs of floods, the United States has adopted sophisticated programs to mitigate the loss of life and property. However, the efficient implementation of certain aspects of flood policy has taken precedence over effective communication. The scope of the National Flood Insurance Program and the efficient coding of "the 100 year flood" have led to a pervasive use of the term in both formal and informal risk communication. When officials began consciously communicating flood policy to the public, they assumed a narrow "engineering" model and did not fully anticipate the influence of informal communication on the perception of flood risk. The effectiveness of the "100 year flood" as a means to change attitudes or motivate behaviors was not assessed. Nor was its utility in increasing public understanding of flood risk. New explanatory methods have been introduced, but they, too, have yet to be tested. This project evaluated the effectiveness of four methods commonly used to communicate the risk associated with policy's benchmark flood. These include: a 100 year flood; a flood with a 1 percent chance of occurring in any year; a flood with a 26 percent chance of occurring in 30 years; and a flood risk map available through Project Impact. Data were collected using a structured face to face questionnaire survey of residents living in Wimberley, Texas. Respondents included individuals who lived inside the boundaries of official flood plains, as well as those who did not. Comparable questions regarding uncertainty, perceived need for protection, and levels of concern were asked using each of the four methods of description. Qualitative observations were made during both the interviews and the collection of secondary data. Results showed a significant disjuncture of understanding and persuasion with each method; potentially serious problems with the 26 percent chance method; and a preference for concrete references in describing risk. It is recommended that use of the 26 percent chance method be discontinued. Both the 100 year flood and the map performed better than expected; these descriptions are recommended with reservations in lieu of more contextually appropriate methods of communication and policy formation.

This thesis presents an analysis of subjective risk information and participation in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Data are taken from a survey of residents in flood-prone coastal regions in the southeastern U.S. Regression models are constructed to better understand factors affecting individuals’ perceived risk ambiguity related to flood risk and the role of risk preferences, risk perceptions, and especially risk ambiguity, on the decision to purchase flood insurance. This is the first study not only of the influence of risk ambiguity on NFIP participation, but also of the impact of using different risk perception measures. Results indicate that NFIP participation is significantly affected by mean perceived risk, but the influence of range/variance of perceived risk, which presents one’s perceived ambiguity, is mixed.

The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) introduced the Community Rating System (CRS) to encourage community-level flood mitigation and increase individual-level flood insurance uptake. This study analyzes what factors influence communities to participate in the CRS and conditional on participation, what factors affect the type and intensity of participation over time? I used historical data of policies-in-force, claims, CRS participation, and U.S. Census American Community Survey for all NFIP communities in 11 key states to answer these questions. The results show socio-demographic factors significantly and positively predict communities' likelihood of participating in the CRS, whilst flood risk variables of claims and policies held do not. Further, flood risk variable (claims payment received) as well as socio-demographic variable (income) positively influence the intensity of communities' participation in the CRS over time.

No description available.

Floodplain is an important location for the economic and social development of society throughout history, although it afflicted by different disasters like floods and bank erosion from time to time. Population dynamics and distribution trends have important effects on the landscape and society. Population dynamics in floodplains influenced mostly by the flood events and related human activities to protect themselves and the properties. Thus, floodplain population dynamics is vital to understand human-nature relationships, disaster risk assessment, flood forecasting and flood damage costs in the floodplains. Economic losses and fatalities due to flood events increase with increased flood frequency and flood magnitude. Extreme hydrological changes are responsible for such changes in the flood events. Population growth, urbanization and developmental activities worsened the situation further in the floodplain areas. Learning effect, i.e. flood memory is noticeable after the flood which diminishes with time, however, levee, which is a popular flood protection measure, causes further reduction of learning effect. Researchers suggest that levees create a false sense of safety and can influence the mobilization of floodplain population. Several pieces of research indicate that along with flood events and intervention measures, inundation depth, durations, flood type (coastal/ riverine), economic, technological and political characteristics of the societies influence flood memory, hence, influence floodplain population dynamics. However, long term floodplain population dynamics and how it is related to different flood-related, i.e. hydrological and sociological variables are yet to be confirmed. Flood is one of the major natural disasters in the United States. About 10% of the population lives in the 100-year and 500-year floodplain of the United States. This study carried out to investigate the long-term trend of floodplain population dynamics in the USA and how the dynamics changes from country to state to county level considering Arkansas State and Sebastian County to observe the difference. Also, the relationships of floodplain population dynamics with hydrological and sociological variables such as flood events, damage, intervention measures and poverty assessed in the national, state and county level. Then the dynamics of the national level, the state (Arkansas) level and the county (Sebastian) level were compared to identify changes in dynamics from macro to micro-scale. Floodplain population dynamics evaluated in terms of population growth rate and the ratio of floodplain population to the total population from 1790 – 2010. The median centroids of the population growth rate from 1790 – 2010 were estimated to observe the changes in the central tendency of the population growth rate in the total area and in the floodplain overtime to locate the typical place of floodplain population growth. High-resolution raster image (1 km x 1 km) of historical population data and a high-resolution raster image (250 m x 250 m) of floodplain data were analysed using ArcGIS to evaluate floodplain population dynamics. Historical data regarding flood events, damage, structural and non- structural flood intervention measures and poverty from available databases were extracted, processed and analysed to establish the relationship among population dynamics, hydrological and social variables. Finally, the population dynamics of the three levels were compared statistically and discussed for changes. It is found that the central tendency of the total population growth rate and floodplain population growth rate of the USA shifts from east to west direction. The central tendency of the overall population growth rate located near the lower Mississippi river basin in the 1800s. It is consistent near the geographical centroid of the USA in Kansas since 1900. For the floodplain population, the central tendency of the growth rate stayed consistent in Arkansas from 1910 – 2010, i.e. in the lower Mississippi river basin. This location indicates the floodplains in Arkansas was preferable for floodplain population settlement for many decades. Change in floodplain population proportion of the whole country USA from 1790 – 2010 shows that the proportion of floodplain population is more than 80% during the initial years of settlement. Then it reduced to less than 40% over time. At the state level – Arkansas, the proportion of floodplain population is also more than 80% during initial settlement and reduced to less than 60% over time for counties with high percentage floodplain area. Flood events, structural and non-structural protection measures influenced floodplain population dynamics over time and learning effect, i.e. social memory of flood found was seven years. At the county level- Sebastian county, Arkansas, the proportion of floodplain population varies significantly with a variance of 0.04 and a standard deviation of 0.19. The ratio of floodplain population in Sebastian was 29% in 1820, which increased and decreased over the years and about 70% in 2010. In addition to flood events, different intervention measures, the floodplain population dynamics in the Sebastian county are influenced by the social, economic and political phenomenon, examining which is out of the scope of this study. The learning effect of flood seems to be eight years in the case of Sebastian county. The population dynamics influenced by a different social, geographical, economic, political and hydrological phenomenon which makes it a complicated system to comprehend within the present scope of the study. The result shows that the floodplain population dynamics can vary for different geographical scale. Therefore, the geographic extent should also need to consider while using population dynamics in flood disaster management and mitigation strategy development, policy formulation and implementation. / Flodslätter är viktiga platser för samhällets ekonomiska samt sociala utveckling och har varit det sedan är lång tid tillbaka, även om de från och till har drabbats av olika katastrofer såsom översvämning och erosion. Översvämning är en av de största naturliga katastrofer som sker i USA. Ungefär 10 % av befolkningen bor i 100- och 500-års flodslätter som emellertid förändras på grund av olika anledningar, inklusive översvämningar. I denna studie undersöks den tillfälliga relationen mellan översvämning, relaterad skada, olika ingripande åtgärder och fattigdomsnivå med en befolkningsdynamik i flodslättsområden. Vidare sker denna undersökning i tre olika nivåer – nationellt: USA som ett helt land, stats-nivå: Arkansas och län: Sebastian County, Arkansas där de olika dynamikerna i de tre nivåerna jämförs. På den nationella nivån utvärderades befolkningsdynamiken med avseende på flodslätten till den totala populationen och befolkningstillväxt. Resultatet visar att befolkningsdynamiken förändras beroende på om den betraktas ur ett nationellt, statligt eller läns perspektiv. Ur ett nationellt perspektiv flyttar flodslättsbefolkningar till olika områden med tiden. Ur ett statligt perspektiv är flodslättsbefolkningar känsliga mot översvämningar, skada och olika ingripande åtgärder. På länsnivå, utöver översvämningsrelaterade variabler, är flodslättsbefolkningar känsliga mot andra socio-ekonomiska faktorer som inte behöver vara relaterade till översvämningar. Resultatet indikerar således att översvämningar inte alltid behöver vara den faktorn som styr befolkningsdynamiken i flodslättsområden på den lokala nivån samt beslutet att flytta till en flodslätt påverkas av olika socio- ekonomiska faktorer, inklusive översvämning. På den nationella nivån kan däremot både påverkan av översvämningar och relaterade variabler på befolkningsdynamiken i flodslättsområden observeras.

Throughout history floods have been part of the human experience. They are recurring phenomena that form a necessary and enduring feature of all river basin and lowland coastal systems. In an average year, they benefit millions of people who depend on them. In the more developed countries, major floods can be the largest cause of economic losses from natural disasters, and are also a major cause of disaster-related deaths in the less developed countries. Flood disaster mitigation research was conducted to determine how remotely sensed data can effectively be used to produce accurate flood plain maps (FPMs), and to identify/quantify the sources of error associated with such data. Differences were analyzed between flood maps produced by an automated remote sensing analysis tailored to the available satellite remote sensing datasets (rFPM), the 100-year flooded areas "predicted" by the Flood Insurance Rate Maps, and FPMs based on DEM and hydrological data (aFPM). Landuse/landcover was also examined to determine its influence on rFPM errors. These errors were identified and the results were integrated in a GIS to minimize landuse / landcover effects. Two substantial flood events were analyzed. These events were selected because of their similar characteristics (i.e., the existence of FIRM or Q3 data; flood data which included flood peaks, rating curves, and flood profiles; and DEM and remote sensing imagery.) Automatic feature extraction was determined to be an important component for successful flood analysis. A process network, in conjunction with domain specific information, was used to map raw remotely sensed data onto a representation that is more compatible with a GIS data model. From a practical point of view, rFPM provides a way to automatically match existing data models to the type of remote sensing data available for each event under investigation. Overall, results showed how remote sensing could contribute to the complex problem of flood management by providing an efficient way to revise the National Flood Insurance Program maps.

This thesis examines the role of the public in Flood Risk Management (FRM) service provision at a time when the perceptions of the distribution of benefits provided by FRM interventions are in flux, and the role the public should play in FRM highly contested among stakeholders. Two schemes have marked the revised role of the public in FRM - Partnership Funding and Flood Re - both of which challenge existing judgments of the excludability and rivalry of benefits delivered by FRM interventions. The Partnership Funding scheme allocates capital for FRM projects proportionately to the public benefits they provide, allowing communities to top-up grants through local contributions. In comparison, by increasing accessibility to affordable insurance through cross-subsidies and pricing signals, Flood Re highlights a growing recognition that the distribution of gains as a result of widespread insurance uptake is greater than the benefits received by the policyholder alone. Following the identification of these schemes, we tested their social feasibility, examining both the scale and distribution of benefits. Due to the different stages of implementation of each scheme at the time of writing this thesis, two distinct methods were developed. The Partnership Funding Chapter used field data to examine how public-private funding of flood defences has changed service provision and the public acceptance of this transition. Whereas the Flood Re chapter used computer-based experiments to hypothesize how Flood Re may make the purchase of insurance a more or less attractive investment for different types of consumer. We found that Partnership Funding enabled more FRM projects to go ahead, raised public awareness of flood risk, and improved collaboration between stakeholders, but encouraged lower-cost projects, which, in the longer term, could transfer the expense of managing residual risk to the householder. In comparison, Flood Re provided peace of mind to householders struggling to afford rises in insurance premiums, but disproportionately benefited those who annually purchased insurance. Combining this proposed inequity in Flood Re with increasing residual risks, we identify a gap in service provision for the public who cannot afford household mitigation measures. We propose that loss mitigation and flood defence should become increasingly collaborative in line with the complexities of flooding within a community. We seek a move away from the information asymmetry which currently exists between insurance providers and policyholders, and yet simultaneously call for local authorities to recognise the capacity of the public to participate in FRM, and sustain resilience in the face of rising flood risk.

This research presents methods of creating digital maps for floodplain delineation and flood probability studies and storing them in a geodatabase. Methods for creating a geodatabase for water resources outside of a GIS are presented. The geodatabase follows the ArcHydro data model. Methods are also shown for creating digital flood maps and storing them in the geodatabase. These flood maps, defining the floodplain boundary and flood probability, are stored in a digital format ready for use in a FEMA flood hazard project, allowing for better archival methods and reproducibility.

Die vorliegende Habilitation beschäftigt sich mit verschiedenen Aspekten des Hochwasserrisikos in Deutschland. In zwölf Artikeln werden neue wissenschaftliche Erkenntnisse über Hochwassergefahren, über Faktoren, die Hochwasserschäden beeinflussen, sowie über effektive private Vorsorgemaßnahmen präsentiert. So wird die jahreszeitliche Verteilung von Hochwasser in ganz Deutschland gezeigt. Weiterhin werden mögliche Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf Abflussverhältnisse und Häufigkeiten von Hochwasserereignissen am Beispiel des Rhein-Einzugsgebietes abgeschätzt. Ferner wird am Niederrhein simuliert, welche Auswirkungen Deichbrüche haben können. Hochwasserschäden stehen im zweiten Teil der Arbeit im Fokus: Nach dem August-Hochwasser 2002 wurden ca. 1700 Privathaushalte telefonisch befragt. Damit konnten die Einflüsse verschiedener Faktoren, wie der Überflutungsdauer oder der Verunreinigung des Hochwassers mit Öl, auf die Höhe von finanziellen Schäden quantifiziert werden. Daraus ist zum einen ein neues Modell entstanden, mit dem Hochwasserschäden großräumig berechnet werden können. Zum anderen konnten Hinweise für die Verbesserung der privaten Vorsorge abgeleitet werden. Beispielsweise zeigte sich, dass versicherte Haushalte schneller und besser entschädigt werden als Nicht-Versicherte. Ebenfalls wurde deutlich, dass verschiedene Bevölkerungsgruppen, wie Mieter und Hauseigentümer, unterschiedliche Möglichkeiten haben, Vorsorge zu betreiben. Dies ist zukünftig in der Risikokommunikation zu berücksichtigen. In den Jahren 2005 und 2006 waren Elbe und Donau wiederum von Hochwasser betroffen. Eine erneute Befragung von Privathaushalten und Behörden ermöglichte, die Verbesserung des Hochwasserrisikomanagement und der Vorsorge am Beispiel der Stadt Dresden zu untersuchen. Viele Methoden und Erkenntnisse dieser Arbeit sind in der wasserwirtschaftlichen Praxis anwendbar und tragen somit zur Verbesserung der Hochwasserrisikoanalyse und des Risikomanagements in Deutschland bei. / This thesis deals with different aspects of flood risk in Germany. In twelve papers new scientific findings about flood hazards, factors that influence flood losses as well as effective private precautionary measures are presented. The seasonal distribution of flooding is shown for the whole of Germany. Furthermore, possible impacts of climate change on discharge and flood frequencies are estimated for the catchment of the river Rhine. Moreover, it is simulated at reaches of the Lower Rhine, which effects may result from levee breaches. Flood losses are the focus of the second part of the thesis: After the flood in August 2002 approximately 1700 households were interviewed by telephone. By this, it was possible to quantify the influence of different factors such as flood duration or the contamination of the flood water with oil on the extent of financial flood damage. On this basis, a new model was derived, by which flood losses can be calculated on a large scale. On the other hand, it was possible to derive recommendations for the improvement of private precaution. For example, the analysis revealed that insured households were compensated more quickly and to a better degree than uninsured. It became also clear that different groups like tenants and homeowners have different capabilities of performing precaution. This is to be considered in future risk communication. In 2005 and 2006, the rivers Elbe and Danube were again affected by flooding. A renewed pool among households and public authorities enabled us to investigate the improvement of flood risk management and the precaution in the City of Dresden. Several methods and finding of this thesis are applicable for water resources management issues and contribute to an improvement of flood risk analysis and management in Germany.