Introdução. A cidade de São Paulo vem adotando medidas no enfrentamento das inundações, como a implantação dos Reservatórios de Contenção de Cheias \"Piscinões\", que no período de estiagem, após as precipitações, propiciam a formação de criadouros de culicídeos, especialmente nos componentes hidráulicos. Objetivos. Avaliar os aspectos ecológicos da fauna de culicídeos nos Reservatórios de Contenção de Cheias Caguaçu e Inhumas, verificando a diversidade, dominância, similaridade e riqueza de espécies. Correlacionar fatores abióticos com a abundância numérica de mosquitos. Materiais e Métodos: Coletas mensais de culicídeos, no período de março de 2006 a fevereiro de 2007, empregando-se os métodos de conchas e aspirador à bateria. Em laboratório, após o desenvolvimento das larvas, os adultos foram identificados até a categoria de espécie. Resultados. Foram coletados 8.917 espécimes de culicídeos, dos quais 7.750 larvas e pupas e 1.167 adultos. Os espécimes identificados foram distribuídos em 4 gêneros e 13 espécies. Observou-se a dominância de Culex (Culex) quinquefasciatus, que representou 98% dos espécimes coletados no Inhumas e 92% no Caguaçu. A maior freqüência de mosquitos foi registrada no Piscinão Inhumas (6.378 larvas e 930 adultos) e maior riqueza de espécies no Caguaçu (11 espécies). Verificou-se correlação positiva entre a temperatura a e abundância numérica de imaturos nas duas áreas, correlação positiva no Piscinão Caguaçu e correlação negativa no Inhumas entre a precipitação e a abundância numérica de imaturos. As análises estatísticas demonstraram que os fatores abióticos analisados exercem pouca influência na população de adultos. Conclusões. A espécie Culex quinquefasciatus mostrou-se dominante e mais freqüente nos dois ambientes. Medidas de controle da espécie nos piscinções estudados se fazem necessárias tendo em vista seu potencial epidemiológico na transmissão de agentes patogênicos. / Introduction. The City of São Paulo has been adopting highly measures to enable it to face up to the problem of flooding, among them being the construction of Reservoirs for the Containment of Flood Waters, known as \"piscinões\". In the dry season, after the occasional rains, these reservoirs, especially their hydraulic machinery, serve as breeding places for the Culicidae. Objectives. The assessment of the ecological aspects of the Culicidae fauna in the Reservoirs for the Containment of Flood Waters at Caguaçu and Inhumas to establish their diversity, dominance, similarity and species richness and, further, to correlate a-biotic factors with the numerical abundance of the mosquitoes. Materials and Methods: Monthly collections of Culicidae were undertaken during the period from March 2006 to February 2007, using the shell and battery aspirator methods. Results. A total of 8,917 Culicidae specimens were collected, 7,750 of which were larvae and pupae and 1,167 adults. The specimens were identified as belonging to 4 genera and 13 species. Culex quinquefasciatus, accounting for 98% of the specimens collected in the Inhumas Reservoir and 92% of those collected in Caguaçu, was the dominant species. The greatest frequency of mosquitoes was registered in the Inhumas Reservoir (6,378 larvae and 930 adults) and the greatest species richness in the Caguaçu Reservoir (11 species). A positive correlation was found as between the temperature and the numerical abundance of immature forms of the two areas and a positive correlation in Caguaçu and a negative correlation in Inhumas between the rainfall the and numerical abundance of immature forms. The analyses demonstrated that the a-biotic factors analyzed exercised little influence on the adult population. Conclusions. The species Culex quinquefasciatus was the dominant and most frequent species in both environments. Methods for the control of the species in the Reservoirs studied are necessary in view of their epidemiological potential in terms of the transmission of pathogenic agents.

<p>Stochastic information, to be understood as &quot;information gained by the application of stochastic methods&quot;, is proposed as a tool in the assessment of changes in climate.</p> <p>This thesis aims at demonstrating that stochastic information can improve the consideration and reduction of uncertainty in the assessment of changes in climate. The thesis consists of three parts. In part one, an indicator is developed that allows the determination of the proximity to a critical threshold. In part two, the tolerable windows approach (TWA) is extended to a probabilistic TWA. In part three, an integrated assessment of changes in flooding probability due to climate change is conducted within the TWA.</p> <p>The thermohaline circulation (THC) is a circulation system in the North Atlantic, where the circulation may break down in a saddle-node bifurcation under the influence of climate change. Due to uncertainty in ocean models, it is currently very difficult to determine the distance of the THC to the bifurcation point. We propose a new indicator to determine the system's proximity to the bifurcation point by considering the THC as a stochastic system and using the information contained in the fluctuations of the circulation around the mean state. As the system is moved closer to the bifurcation point, the power spectrum of the overturning becomes &quot;redder&quot;, i.e. more energy is contained in the low frequencies. Since the spectral changes are a generic property of the saddle-node bifurcation, the method is not limited to the THC, but it could also be applicable to other systems, e.g. transitions in ecosystems. </p> <p>In part two, a probabilistic extension to the tolerable windows approach (TWA) is developed. In the TWA, the aim is to determine the complete set of emission strategies that are compatible with so-called guardrails. Guardrails are limits to impacts of climate change or to climate change itself. Therefore, the TWA determines the &quot;maneuvering space&quot; humanity has, if certain impacts of climate change are to be avoided. Due to uncertainty it is not possible to definitely exclude the impacts of climate change considered, but there will always be a certain probability of violating a guardrail. Therefore the TWA is extended to a probabilistic TWA that is able to consider &quot;probabilistic uncertainty&quot;, i.e. uncertainty that can be expressed as a probability distribution or uncertainty that arises through natural variability.</p> <p>As a first application, temperature guardrails are imposed, and the dependence of emission reduction strategies on probability distributions for climate sensitivities is investigated. The analysis suggests that it will be difficult to observe a temperature guardrail of 2&deg;C with high probabilities of actually meeting the target.</p> <p>In part three, an integrated assessment of changes in flooding probability due to climate change is conducted. A simple hydrological model is presented, as well as a downscaling scheme that allows the reconstruction of the spatio-temporal natural variability of temperature and precipitation. These are used to determine a probabilistic climate impact response function (CIRF), a function that allows the assessment of changes in probability of certain flood events under conditions of a changed climate. </p> <p>The assessment of changes in flooding probability is conducted in 83 major river basins. Not all floods can be considered: Events that either happen very fast, or affect only a very small area can not be considered, but large-scale flooding due to strong longer-lasting precipitation events can be considered. Finally, the probabilistic CIRFs obtained are used to determine emission corridors, where the guardrail is a limit to the fraction of world population that is affected by a predefined shift in probability of the 50-year flood event. This latter analysis has two main results. The uncertainty about regional changes in climate is still very high, and even small amounts of further climate change may lead to large changes in flooding probability in some river systems.</p> / <p>Stochastische Information, zu verstehen als &quot;Information, die durch die Anwendung stochastischer Methoden gewonnen wird&quot;, wird als Hilfsmittel in der Bewertung von Klima&auml;nderungen vorgeschlagen.</p> <p>Das Ziel dieser Doktorarbeit ist es, zu zeigen, dass stochastische Information die Ber&uuml;cksichtigung und Reduktion von Unsicherheit in der Bewertung des Klimawandels verbessern kann. Die Arbeit besteht aus drei Teilen. Im ersten Teil wird ein Indikator entwickelt, der die Bestimmung des Abstandes zu einem kritischen Grenzwert ermöglicht. Im zweiten Teil wird der &quot;tolerable windows approach&quot; (TWA) zu einem probabilistischen TWA erweitert. Im dritten Teil wird eine integrierte Absch&auml;tzung der Ver&auml;nderung von &Uuml;berflutungswahrscheinlichkeiten im Rahmen des TWA durchgeführt.</p> <p>Die thermohaline Zirkulation (THC) ist ein Zirkulationssystem im Nordatlantik, in dem die Zirkulation unter Einfluss des Klimawandels in einer Sattel-Knoten Bifurkation abreißen kann. Durch Unsicherheit in Ozeanmodellen ist es gegenw&auml;rtig kaum m&ouml;glich, den Abstand des Systems zum Bifurkationspunkt zu bestimmen. Wir schlagen einen neuen Indikator vor, der es erm&ouml;glicht, die N&auml;he des Systems zum Bifurkationspunkt zu bestimmen. Dabei wird die THC als stochastisches System angenommen, und die Informationen, die in den Fluktuationen der Zirkulation um den mittleren Zustand enthalten sind, ausgenutzt. Wenn das System auf den Bifurkationspunkt zubewegt wird, wird das Leistungsspektrum &quot;roter&quot;, d.h. die tiefen Frequenzen enthalten mehr Energie. Da diese spektralen Ver&auml;nderungen eine allgemeine Eigenschaft der Sattel-Knoten Bifurkation sind, ist die Methode nicht auf die THC beschränkt, sondern weitere Anwendungen k&ouml;nnten m&ouml;glich sein, beispielsweise zur Erkennung von &Uuml;berg&auml;ngen in &Ouml;kosystemen.</p> <p>Im zweiten Teil wird eine probabilistische Erweiterung des &quot;tolerable windows approach&quot; (TWA) entwickelt. Das Ziel des TWA ist die Bestimmung der Menge der Emissionsreduktionsstrategien, die mit sogenannten Leitplanken kompatibel sind. Diese Leitplanken sind Begrenzungen der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels, oder des Klimawandels selber. Der TWA bestimmt daher den Spielraum, den die Menschheit hat, wenn bestimmte Auswirkungen des Klimawandels vermieden werden sollen. Durch den Einfluss von Unsicherheit ist es aber nicht m&ouml;glich, die betrachteten Auswirkungen des Klimawandels mit Sicherheit auszuschlie&szlig;en, sondern es existiert eine gewisse Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die Leitplanke verletzt wird. Der TWA wird daher zu einem probabilistischen TWA weiterentwickelt, der es erm&ouml;glicht, &quot;probabilistische Unsicherheit&quot;, also Unsicherheit, die durch eine Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung ausgedr&uuml;ckt werden kann, oder die durch den Einfluß von nat&uuml;rlicher Variabilit&auml;t entsteht, zu ber&uuml;cksichtigen.</p> <p>Als erste Anwendung werden Temperaturleitplanken betrachtet, und die Abh&auml;ngigkeit der Emissionsreduktionsstrategien von Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen über die Klimasensitivit&auml;t wird bestimmt. Die Analyse ergibt, dass die Einhaltung einer Temperaturleitplanke von 2&deg;C sehr schwierig wird, wenn man hohe Wahrscheinlichkeiten des Einhaltens der Leitplanke fordert.</p> <p>Im dritten Teil wird eine integrierte Absch&auml;tzung der &Auml;nderungen von &Uuml;berflutungswahrscheinlichkeiten unter Einfluss des Klimawandels durchgef&uuml;hrt. Ein einfaches hydrologisches Modell wird vorgestellt, sowie ein Skalierungsansatz, der es erm&ouml;glicht, die raum-zeitliche nat&uuml;rliche Variabilit&auml;t von Temperatur und Niederschlag zu rekonstruieren. Diese werden zur Bestimmung einer probabilistischen Klimawirkungsfunktion genutzt, einer Funktion, die es erlaubt, die Ver&auml;nderungen der Wahrscheinlichkeit bestimmter &Uuml;berflutungsereignisse unter Einfluss von Klima&auml;nderungen abzusch&auml;tzen.</p> <p>Diese Untersuchung der Ver&auml;nderung von &Uuml;berflutungswahrscheinlichkeiten wird in 83 großen Flusseinzugsgebieten durchgef&uuml;hrt. Nicht alle Klassen von &Uuml;berflutungen k&ouml;nnen dabei ber&uuml;cksichtigt werden: Ereignisse, die entweder sehr schnell vonstatten gehen, oder die nur ein kleines Gebiet betreffen, k&ouml;nnen nicht ber&uuml;cksichtigt werden, aber großfl&auml;chige &Uuml;berflutungen, die durch starke, langanhaltende Regenf&auml;lle hervorgerufen werden, k&ouml;nnen ber&uuml;cksichtigt werden. Zuguterletzt werden die bestimmten Klimawirkungsfunktion dazu genutzt, Emissionskorridore zu bestimmen, bei denen die Leitplanken Begrenzungen des Bev&ouml;lkerungsanteils, der von einer bestimmten Ver&auml;nderung der Wahrscheinlichkeit eines 50-Jahres-Flutereignisses betroffen ist, sind. Letztere Untersuchung hat zwei Hauptergebnisse. Die Unsicherheit von regionalen Klima&auml;nderungen ist immer noch sehr hoch, und au&szlig;erdem k&ouml;nnen in einigen Flusssystemen schon kleine Klima&auml;nderungen zu gro&szlig;en &Auml;nderungen der &Uuml;berflutungswahrscheinlichkeit f&uuml;hren.</p>

No description available.

Waterflood optimization via rate control is receiving increased interest because of rapid developments in the smart well completions and I-field technology. The use of inflow control valves (ICV) allows us to optimize the production/injection rates of various segments along the wellbore, thereby maximizing sweep efficiency and delaying water breakthrough. It is well recognized that field scale rate optimization problems are difficult because they often involve highly complex reservoir models, production and facilities related constraints and a large number of unknowns. Some aspects of the optimization problem have been studied before using mainly optimal control theory. However, the applications to-date have been limited to rather small problems because of the computation time and the complexities associated with the formulation and solution of adjoint equations. Field-scale rate optimization for maximizing waterflood sweep efficiency under realistic field conditions has still remained largely unexplored. We propose a practical and efficient approach for computing optimal injection and production rates and thereby manage the waterflood front to maximize sweep efficiency and delay the arrival time to minimize water cycling. Our work relies on equalizing the arrival times of the waterfront at all producers within selected sub-regions of a water flood project. The arrival time optimization has favorable quasi-linear properties and the optimization proceeds smoothly even if our initial conditions are far from the solution. We account for geologic uncertainty using two optimization schemes. The first one is to formulate the objective function in a stochastic form which relies on a combination of expected value and standard deviation combined with a risk attitude coefficient. The second one is to minimize the worst case scenario using a min-max problem formulation. The optimization is performed under operational and facility constraints using a sequential quadratic programming approach. A major advantage of our approach is the analytical computation of the gradient and Hessian of the objective which makes it computationally efficient and suitable for large field cases. Multiple examples are presented to support the robustness and efficiency of the proposed optimization scheme. These include several 2D synthetic examples for validation purposes and 3D field applications.

No description available.

We investigate systems with a mixed phase space, where regular and chaotic dynamics coexist. Classically, regions with regular motion, the regular islands, are dynamically not connected to regions with chaotic motion, the chaotic sea. Typically, this is also reflected in the quantum properties, where eigenstates either concentrate on the regular or the chaotic regions. However, it was shown that quantum mechanically, due to the tunneling process, a coupling is induced and flooding of regular islands may occur. This happens when the Heisenberg time, the time needed to resolve the discrete spectrum, is larger than the tunneling time from the regular region to the chaotic sea. In this case the regular eigenstates disappear. We study this effect by the time evolution of wave packets initially started in the chaotic sea and find increasing probability in the regular island. Using random matrix models a quantitative prediction is derived. We find excellent agreement with numerical data obtained for quantum maps and billiards systems. For open systems we investigate the phenomenon of flooding and disappearance of regular states, where the escape time occurs as an additional time scale. We discuss the reappearance of regular states in the case of strongly opened systems. This is demonstrated numerically for quantum maps and experimentally for a mushroom shaped microwave resonator. The reappearance of regular states is explained qualitatively by a matrix model. / Untersucht werden Systeme mit gemischtem Phasenraum, in denen sowohl reguläre als auch chaotische Dynamik auftritt. In der klassischen Mechanik sind Gebiete regulärer Bewegung, die sogenannten regulären Inseln, dynamisch nicht mit den Gebieten chaotischer Bewegung, der chaotischen See, verbunden. Dieses Verhalten spiegelt sich typischerweise auch in den quantenmechanischen Eigenschaften wider, so dass Eigenfunktionen entweder auf chaotischen oder regulären Gebieten konzentriert sind. Es wurde jedoch gezeigt, dass aufgrund des Tunneleffektes eine Kopplung auftritt und reguläre Inseln geflutet werden können. Dies geschieht wenn die Heisenbergzeit, das heißt die Zeit die das System benötigt, um das diskrete Spektrum aufzulösen, größer als die Tunnelzeit vom Regulären ins Chaotische ist, wobei reguläre Eigenzustände verschwinden. Dieser Effekt wird über eine Zeitentwicklung von Wellenpaketen, die in der chaotischen See gestartet werden, untersucht. Es kommt zu einer ansteigenden Wahrscheinlichkeit in der regulären Insel. Mithilfe von Zufallsmatrixmodellen wird eine quantitative Vorhersage abgeleitet, welche die numerischen Daten von Quantenabbildungen und Billardsystemen hervorragend beschreibt. Der Effekt des Flutens und das Verschwinden regulärer Zustände wird ebenfalls mit offenen Systemen untersucht. Hier tritt die Fluchtzeit als zusätzliche Zeitskala auf. Das Wiederkehren regulärer Zustände im Falle stark geöffneter Systeme wird qualitativ mithilfe eines Matrixmodells erklärt und numerisch für Quantenabbildungen sowie experimentell für einen pilzförmigen Mikrowellenresonator belegt.

This work investigates the performance of CO₂ soluble surfactants used for CO₂ foam flooding in fractured carbonate reservoirs. Oil recovery associated with the reduction of CO₂ mobility in fractures is assessed by monitoring oil saturation and pressure drops during injection of CO₂ with aqueous surfactant solution in artificially fractured carbonate cores. Distinct novel CO₂ soluble surfactants are evaluated as well as a conventional surfactant. Water flooding and pure CO₂ injection are conducted as baseline. Characterization of fluids and rock are also reported which include Amott test, oil phase behavior and slim tube test. Transport and thermodynamic properties of surfactant and supercritical CO₂ are used to evaluate the process on a core scale using a commercial reservoir simulator. / text

Minimum miscibility pressure (MMP) is a key parameter in the design of gas flooding. There are experimental and computational methods to determine MMP. Computational methods are fast and convenient alternatives to otherwise slow and expensive experimental procedures. This research focuses on the computational aspects of MMP estimation. It investigates the shortcomings of the current computational models and offers ways to improve the robustness of MMP estimation. First, we develop a new mixing cell method of estimating MMP that, unlike previous "mixing cell" methods, uses a variable number of cells and is independent of gas-oil ratio, volume of the cells, excess oil volumes, and the amount of gas injected. The new method relies entirely on robust P-T flash calculations using any cubic equation-of-state (EOS). We show that mixing cell MMPs are comparable with those of other analytical and experimental methods, and that our mixing cell method finds all the key tie lines predicted by MOC; however, the method proved to be more robust and reliable than current analytical methods. Second, we identify a number of problems with analytical methods of MMP estimation, and demonstrate them using real oil characterization examples. We show that the current MOC results, which assume that shocks exist from one key tie line to the next may not be reliable and may lead to large errors in MMP estimation. In such cases, the key tie lines determined using the MOC method do not control miscibility, likely as a result of the onset of L₁-L₂-V behavior. We explain the problem with a simplified pseudo-ternary model and offer a procedure for determining when an error exists and for improving the results. Finally, we present a simple mathematical model for predicting the MMP of contaminated gas. Injection-gas compositions often vary during the life of a gasflood because of reinjection and mixing of fluids in situ. Determining the MMP by slim-tube or other methods for each possible variation in the gas-mixture composition is impractical. Our method gives an easy and accurate way to determine impure CO₂ MMPs for variable field solvent compositions on the basis of just a few MMPs. Alternatively, the approach could be used to estimate the enrichment level required to lower the MMP to a desired pressure. / text

Während der Elbeflut im Juni 2013 wurde in Dresden erstmals eine über das Internet frei zugängliche Hochwasserkarte eingesetzt. Über 3 Millionen Zugriffe erfolgten innerhalb des einwöchigen Betriebes. Somit konnte ein großer Teil der Einwohner erreicht und über aktuelle Gefahren informiert werden. Mit den Möglichkeiten, die eine solche Plattform bietet, wird aber gleichzeitig auch die Frage aufgeworfen, wie sich Bürger in Zukunft besser koordinieren lassen. (...)

Non-point pollution from stormwater runoff is one of the greatest threats to water quality in the United States today, particularly in urban karst settings. In these settings, the use of karst features and injection wells for stormwater management results in virtually untreated water being directed into the karst aquifer. Currently, no policies exist specifically to provide water quality protections to karst environments. This study utilized a combination of karst stormwater quality data, along with survey data collected from MS4 Phase II communities, and an analysis of current federal, local, and state water quality regulations, to assess the need for karst-specific water quality regulations. Water quality data indicate that significant levels of contamination are mobilized during storm events, and often are directed into the karst system via Class V injection wells. Survey data collected from MS4 stakeholders in the karst regions of Kentucky indicate stakeholders are generally unable to explain local karst regulations or the steps taken to develop them. This confusion comes in part from insufficient progress on evaluation criteria available for the MS4 Minimum Control Measures (MCMs). Karst waters are often placed into the legal “gray zone” due in part to differences in definitions of key terms in state and federal regulations. This study recommends the development of regulations specific to karst waters at the state and federal levels through either the adaptation of existing or creation of new policies, which place an emphasis on the integration of water quality monitoring and karst education.