Este estudo trata da caracterização hidromorfodinâmica de um setor paulista da planície fluvial meândrica do rio Ribeira de Iguape, abordando-se os três níveis da pesquisa geomorfológica de acordo com a concepção de HART (1986), a saber: (a) o nível descritivo da morfologia; (b) o nível descritivo dos materiais superficiais e solos; e (c) o nível analítico interpretativo dos processos, que, no caso, são hidrodinâmicos. Os resultados possibilitaram compreensão da hidromorfodinâmica das planícies fluviais meândricas em ambientes tropicais úmidos e, principalmente, da planície de inundação, podendo servir de subsídios no planejamento físico territorial regional, tendo em vista a importância da ocupação humana dentro desses setores. / The objective of this research is the hydromorphodynamic characterization of the Paulista River Ribeira de Iguape sector, approaching three levels of the geomorphology research according HART (1986), to know: (a) the morphology descriptive level; (b) the superficial materials and ground descriptive level; and (c) the processes interpretation analytical level, or hydrodynamic processes. With these surveys and systematization was possible the partially understanding humid tropical environments hidromorphodynamics trends and, mainly, of the flooding plain, which can be used in the regional territorial physical planning, in view of the importance of the occupation human being on these sectors.

Short and intense rainfall, called cloudbursts, is becoming more frequent in Sweden as an effect of climate change. With that comes an increased frequency of flooding events caused by the heavy rainfall, called pluvial flooding. This is especially problematic in urban areas where large areas of impervious surface greatly increases the volumes of surface runoff. Mapping of bluespots, locations where pluvial flooding is more likely to occur, can be an important aid towards preventing this kind of flooding. This study concerns performing such a mapping for the islands Kullö, Resarö and Rindö in the municipality Vaxholms stad, Sweden. These islands are chosen for being future high development areas. The analysis is done through hydrological modelling of a digital elevation model. From that expected runoff volumes is calculated from statistical models of precipitation data. Analysis of the result concludes that the major road, 274, is expected to be affected by flooding along two sections. Some houses and other minor roads are also affected. But the overall impact on infrastructure and social functions is low. The mapping should be able to function as a tool in the flood preventative work of Vaxholms stad and in planning of future developments.

The occurrence of natural phenomena such as floods and floods are gaining alarming proportions in recent years, bringing as a result of social and economic losses. Considering the subsidy in the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provide for the generation of information and decision making, this geotechnology is in a tool that can assist in the planning of the geographical space. Thus, this research seeks from the digital terrain modeling (DTM) of the watershed Arroio Cadena and Picadinha, located in the city of Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul and multi-criteria method Hierarchy Process Analytic (AHP), identify susceptible areas the flood phenomenon. To do this, proceed to the acquisition of contour data, elevation points, hydrography, soil type and satellite images (RapidEye). Manipulation of the data resulted in the hierarchy of hydrography as Shreve, map of soil types in the study area, from satellite images obtained map of the use and occupation of land and generation of MDT, providing maps of slope and hypsometry. Thus, through the variables generated, there was a multi-criteria analysis (AM), which is the intersection of the generated maps and consequently the identification of areas susceptible to the occurrence of the flood event of the watershed Arroio Cadena and Picadinha. From the identification of these areas it was possible to estimate the population that is inserted. Based on these results, it is believed that the techniques and methods used can provide subsidies and soffits for future studies and aid in monitoring the study area. / As ocorrências de fenômenos naturais, como enchentes e inundações, vêm ganhando proporções alarmantes nos últimos anos, trazendo como consequência prejuízos sociais e econômicos. Considerando o subsídio que os Sistemas de Informações Geográficas (SIG) fornecem para a geração de informações e tomadas de decisões, essa geotecnologia constitui-se em uma ferramenta que pode auxiliar no planejamento do espaço geográfico. Sendo assim, a presente pesquisa busca, a partir da Modelagem Digital de Terreno (MDT) das bacias hidrográficas dos Arroios Cadena e Picadinha, localizadas no município de Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul e do método multicritério Processo Analítico Hierárquico (AHP), identificar as áreas suscetíveis ao fenômeno de inundação. Para isso, procedeu-se à aquisição de dados de curvas de nível, pontos cotados, hidrografia, tipo de solos e imagens de satélite (RapidEye). A manipulação dos dados obtidos resultou na hierarquização da hidrografia conforme Shreve, no mapa de tipos de solo da área de estudo, a partir das imagens de satélite obteve-se o mapa de uso e ocupação da terra e na geração do MDT, proporcionando mapas de declividade e hipsometria. Assim, mediante as variáveis geradas, realizou-se a Análise Multicritério (AM), que consiste no cruzamento dos mapas obtidos e, consequentemente, na identificação das áreas suscetíveis à ocorrência do evento de inundação das bacias hidrográficas dos Arroios Picadinha e Cadena. A partir da identificação dessas áreas, foi possível estimar a população que nelas está inserida. Com base em tais resultados, acredita-se que as técnicas e os métodos utilizados possam fornecer subsídios e embasamentos para futuras pesquisas e auxiliar na fiscalização da área de estudo.

Les problèmes d’environnement et leur gestion suscitent un ensemble de faits sociaux qui interrogent les relations sociétés/environnement. Le risque d’inondation et plus généralement la gestion de l’eau sont de bons exemples pour analyser ce phénomène. Les tenions générées par les évènements socio-naturels définis par le risque conduisent à identifier des territoires dits « sensibles ». Comment émerge cette sensibilité ? Comment peut-elle s’identifier et comment s’exprime-t-elle ? Cette thèse interroge la notion de sensibilité du point de vue sociologique pour en retenir une définition socio-spatiale. La démarche mise en place a nécessité le recours à la géographie pour mieux considérer la dimension environnementale de l’objet d’étude. La pertinence de la proposition est testée sur le bassin de la Sarthe amont à travers l’analyse de situations générées par le risque d’inondation et le déploiement de sa gestion. Les réactions autour de deux projets d’aménagement de retenue sèche, pour la régulation dynamique des crues, sont plus particulièrement étudiées. En nous appuyant sur le cadre d’analyse des régimes d’engagement (Thévenot, 2006) et particulièrement celui de la justification, nous montrons comment les réactions d’acteurs riverains des cours d’eau se concentrent autour de revendications d’enjeux qui varient selon les secteurs de vallées : demande de protection face au risque dans les secteurs vulnérables ; protection des paysages et maintient des dynamiques locales dans les secteurs amonts. L’analyse des entretiens menés met en évidence que les enjeux se hiérarchisent différemment selon les secteurs. Les revendications antagonistes des acteurs sont sources de tensions et parfois de conflits, qui sont résolues ou non au cours du temps. La mise en relation de la dimension spatiale et de la dimension temporelle, des évènements analysés, permet d’identifier des trajectoires de la sensibilité socio-spatiale. Au final, ce travail montre les difficultés de la mise en partage des territoires de l’eau pour le cas de la gestion du risque d’inondation. / Environmental issues and their managements set off a range of social facts questioning societies/environment relations. Flooding risks, and more generally, water management are relevant examples in order to analyse this phenomenon. Some areas are categorised as sensitive and so because of tensions resulting from socio-natural events which are defined by this risk. Where does this sensibility come from? How can it be identified and how is it expressed? This thesis questions this notion of sensibility from a sociological point of view to eventually take on a socio-spatial definition. This approach required the resort of geography, for a better consideration of the environmental dimension considering the object under study. Through the analysis of situations generated by flooding risk and its management in the Sarthe Bassin is tested the proposal relevance. Main focus will be on the reactions arousing from the development projects of two dry flood barriers- keeping a dynamic control of spates. Considering the analytical frame of the commitment policies (Thévenot, 2006), and more precisely the policy of justification, we point out the way riverside locals' reactions focus on varying claims, according to the different valley areas: request for protection to face flooding risks in vulnerable sectors, protection of the landscapes and finally, that local dynamics are maintained in upstream sectors. The analysis of interviews highlights a different hierarchy among the issues at stakes and so according to the sectors in question. Local actors' antagonistic claims trigger new issues and sometimes conflicts that are not always resolved over time. It leads to an inter-relationship between the spatial and temporal dimensions that enables to identify some trajectories of the socio-spatial sensibility. To conclude, this work illustrates the difficulties concerning the sharing of water territories when the flooding risk management is at stake.

In future cities, urban drainage and flood management systems should be designed not only to reliable during normal operating conditions but also to be resilient to exceptional threats that lead to catastrophic failure impacts and consequences. Resilience can potentially be built into urban drainage systems by implementing a range of strategies, for example by embedding redundancy and flexibility in system design or rehabilitation to increase their ability to efficiently maintain acceptable customer flood protection service levels during and after occurrence of failure or through installation of equipment that enhances customer preparedness for extreme events or service disruptions. However, operationalisation of resilience in urban flood management is still constrained by lack of suitable quantitative evaluation methods. Existing hydraulic reliability-based approaches tend to focus on quantifying functional failure caused by extreme rainfall or increases in dry weather flows that lead to hydraulic overloading of the system. Such approaches take a narrow view of functional resilience and fail to explore the full system failure scenario space due to exclusion of internal system failures such as equipment malfunction, sewer (link) collapse and blockage that also contribute significantly to urban flooding. In this research, a new analytical approach based on Global Resilience Analysis (GRA) is investigated and applied to systematically evaluate the performance of an urban drainage system (UDS) when subjected to a wide range of both functional and structural failure scenarios resulting from extreme rainfall and pseudo random cumulative link failure respectively. Failure envelopes, which represent the resulting loss of system functionality (impacts) are determined by computing the upper and lower limits of the simulation results for total flood volume (failure magnitude) and average flood duration (failure duration) at each considered failure level. A new resilience index is developed and applied to link resulting loss of functionality magnitude and duration to system residual functionality (head room) at each considered failure level. With this approach, resilience has been tested and characterized for a synthetic UDS and for an existing UDS in Kampala city, Uganda. In addition, the approach has been applied to quantify the impact of interventions (adaptation strategies) on enhancement of global UDS resilience to flooding. The developed GRA method provides a systematic and computationally efficient approach that enables evaluation of whole system resilience, where resilience concerns ‘beyond failure’ magnitude and duration, without prior knowledge of threat occurrence probabilities. The study results obtained by applying the developed method to the case studies suggest that by embedding the cost of failure in resilience-based evaluation, adaptation strategies which enhance system flexibility properties such as distributed storage and improved asset management are more cost-effective over the service life of UDSs.

[pt] O presente trabalho busca discutir mecanismos em pauta na literatura em relação à injeção de água de salinidade otimizada com os resultados de 10 (dez) testes de escoamento bifásico óleo/água para 2 (dois) cenários carbonatos e 1 (um) arenito. O principal objetivo foi estudar o efeito de íons potencialmente determinantes (Ca, Mg, SO4, NaCl), além da temperatura, no fator de recuperação e curvas de permeabilidade relativa óleo-água. Em relação a carbonatos, avaliou-se se Ca/Mg e SO4 tinham algum papel na alteração da molhabilidade da formação e, em caso positivo, se esse efeito era exacerbado em ambiente de baixa salinidade. Em relação a reservatórios areníticos, comparou-se a injeção de água dessulfatada com água do mar diluída. Dos testes de deslocamento realizados em amostras de arenito, observou-se que água do mar diluída, injetada após água do mar dessulfatada foi capaz de, em média, acrescer o FR em 2,8 por cento e em reduzir o Sor de 2,1 por cento. Quanto ao cenário carbonato A de alta temperatura avaliado (95 graus Celsius), observou-se que água otimizada, quando injetada após água dessulfatada, foi capaz de aumentar o FR em 15,3 por cento e diminuir o Sor em 12,1 por cento. Ainda, quando se introduziu água otimizada de forma secundária, observou-se redução no Sor em 4,6 por cento e aumento do FR em 5,9 por cento quando comparado com a injeção usual de água. No carbonato B, injeção da água otimizada após água dessulfatada levou a um acréscimo de 10,1 por cento no FR e diminuição de 7,1 por cento no Sor. Tanto no cenário arenito quanto nos carbonatos, não houve produção adicional de óleo quando injetado água do mar após a injeção de água otimizada. Isso corrobora a ideia de que o fluido customizado permitiria atingir o máximo de eficiência de deslocamento. / [en] The present work seeks to discuss possible mechanisms in the literature based in the results of 10 (ten) oil / water core flooding experiments in 2 (two) carbonate scenarios and 1 (one) sandstone scenario Rock and oil samples from real reservoirs were used in experimental conditions of temperature and pressure close to the field reality. The main objective was to study the effect of Ca, Mg, SO4, NaCl and temperature on the recovery factor and oil-water relative permeability curves.Regarding the carbonate scenario, it was evaluated whether Ca / Mg and SO4 had any role in altering the wettability of the formation and, if so, whether this effect was exacerbated in a low salinity environment. For the sandstone reservoirs, the injection of desulfated water and seawater diluted were compared. From the displacement tests carried out in the sandstone samples, it was observed that the diluted sea water, injected after the desulfated sea water, was able to average increase the RF by 2.8 percent and to reduce the Sor by 2.1 percent. Regarding the hightemperature carbonate scenario evaluated (95 degrees Celsius) it was observed that the optimized water, when injected tertiarily, was able to increase the RF by 15.3 percent and decrease the Sor by 12.1 percent, in comparison to the desulfated seawater. In carbonate B, optimized water injection after desulfated water led to a 10.1 percent increase in the recovery factor and a 7.1 percent decrease in the residual oil saturation. Mainly, in both sandstone and carbonate scenarios, there was no additional oil production when sea water was injected after the optimized water injection. This corroborates the idea that the taylor-designed fluid achieves maximum displacement efficiency.

Les départements franciliens de la Seine-Saint-Denis et du Val-de-Marne sont exposés au risque d'inondation pluviale urbaine. Ce risque pourrait s'aggraver en raison du changement climatique. Cette thèse propose une lecture sociologique et politique du risque d'inondation pluviale et du changement climatique afin de définir les spécificités des systèmes territoriaux de gestion du risque et le programme politique de l'adaptation au changement climatique. À partir de l'analyse des différents instruments politiques utilisés pour organiser la gestion du risque pluvial et l'adaptation au changement climatique, complétée par des entretiens réalisés avec les professionnels de la gestion urbaine de l'eau et de l’assainissement, les élus locaux et les habitants des zones inondables, cette étude propose de décrire et d'expliquer les pratiques organisées localement pour gérer le risque ainsi que leurs évolutions. Les évolutions à l'œuvre sur les territoires ne correspondent que partiellement à celles promues par la politique d'adaptation au climatique. Elles sont encadrées et contraintes par les ressources et les stratégies politiques des acteurs locaux. Ce travail met en exergue la dimension politique du programme de l'adaptation et des évolutions à l'œuvre au sein des collectivités locales en matière de gestion des risques. Il insiste sur les concepts d'énoncés politiques et d'interactions stratégiques pour étudier les politiques des risques / In Seine-Saint-Denis and Val-de-Marne (France) several cities are exposed to pluvial flooding. This situation could worsen with climate change. This research develops a social and political perspective of pluvial flooding and climate change risks, in order to define the specificities of local systems which manage pluvial flooding and the contents of the adaptation policy. From the analysis of different policy instruments used to organize pluvial flooding management and climate change adaptation, as well as interviews with urban water management professionals, local officials elected, and citizens who are living in floodable areas, this study describes the local practices and their evolutions. The current evolutions in local practices correspond only partially to those promoted by the climate change policy. The evolutions of risks management practices also depend on resources and political strategies of local stake holders. This work highlights the political program of climate change adaptation and the evolutions in risk management at the local scale. It emphasizes the concepts of policy statements and strategic interactions as keys to analyse risks policies

Inondations qui se produisent dans les zones urbaines sont régies par une fréquence accrue. Structures de protection contre les inondations existantes démontrent ses inconvénients. Une des solutions est émouvant de culture du risque et de trouver l'équilibre entre la forme de l'utilisation des terres et de l'urbanisation grâce à des stratégies d'adaptation, d'atténuation, de prévention et intervention et de rétablissement. La nouvelle approche globale est basée sur le concept de résilience donner une nouvelle place pour le développement et la mise en œuvre de nouvelles approches en vertu de gestion des risques d'inondation (FRM) cadres existants. Ajout de résilience à la gestion des risques d'inondation est une première étape. Grâce à une gestion des risques d'inondation opérationnelle a pour la résilience des prestations. L'indice résilience Flood (FRI) est développé dans cette thèse est une approche unique pour l'évaluation de la résistance aux inondations dans les systèmes urbains avec la priorité principale de la structure du système lorsque l'évaluation se fait sur les micro et méso échelle et sur la dimension du système lorsque la résistance aux inondations est évaluée sur macro échelle. La réflexion est mise sur le développement de la méthode par l'évaluation de la gestion des risques d'inondation existants (FRM) cadres. Grâce à l'évaluation, il est possible de constater le niveau d'intégration et de mise en œuvre de l'élément essentiel du risque d'inondation. La méthode développée pour l'évaluation de la résistance aux inondations est potentiellement applicable à tout système urbain à une échelle géographique. / Floods that happen in urban areas are governed by increased frequency. Existing flood defence structures demonstrate its downsides. One of the solutions is moving to risk culture and finding the balance between the shape of land use and urbanization through adaptation, mitigation, prevention, and response and recovery strategies. The new holistic approach is based on resilience concept give a place for new development and implementation of new approaches under existing flood risk management (FRM) frameworks. Adding resilience to flood risk management is a first step. The Flood Resilience Index (FRI) is developed in this thesis is a unique approach for evaluation of flood resilience in urban systems with the main priority on system structure when evaluation is done on micro and meso scale and on system dimension when flood resilience is evaluated on macro scale. The main reflection is on the development of method by evaluation of existing flood risk management (FRM) frameworks. Through evaluation, there is a possibility to notice the level of integration and implementation of crucial element of flood risk. The developed method for evaluation of flood resilience is potentially applicable to any urban system of any geographic scale. Connections and dependences between main city elements and natural hazards (in this case urban flooding process) are defined. With its implementation, social, economical, political and cultural relations between cities will be more visible and better established and flood risk management well implemented.

When the effects of wind and air pressure combine with a high tide to give unusually high water levels this can lead to severe coastal flooding. This happened in England in early 1953 when 307 people died in the East Coast Flood. In Britain today such events, now called storm surges, are forecast daily using computer models from the National Oceanographic Centre in Liverpool, formerly the Liverpool Tidal Institute (TI). In 1919, when TI was established, such events were considered unpredictable. TI's researchers, Joseph Proudman (1888-1975), Arthur Doodson (1890-1968), Robert Henry Corkan (1906-1952) and Jack Rossiter (1919-1972), did much mathematical work to attempt to change this. In 1959 Rossiter published a set of statistical formulae to forecast storm surges on the East Coast and a national warning system was predicting such events using these formulae. At this point TI believed they had made surges at least as predictable as they could with their existing methods. This thesis provides a narrative of how this perceived rise in the predictability of surges happened, analysing how TI worked to achieve it between 1919 and 1959 by following two interwoven, contingent and contested threads: practices of calculation and patronage. A key aspect of this thesis is the attention I pay to material practices of calculation: the methods, technologies and management practices TI's researchers used in their mathematical work on storm surge forecasting. This is the first study by historians of oceanography or meteorology that pays this detailed level of attention to such practices in the construction of forecasting formulae. As well as using published accounts, I analyse statistical research in the making, through notes, calculations, graphs and tables produced by TI's researchers. They used particular practices of calculation to construct storm surges as calculable and predictable scientific objects of a specific kind. First they defined storm surges as the residuals derived from subtracting tidal predictions from observations. They then decided to use multiple regression, correlating their residuals with pressure gradients, to make surges predictable. By considering TI's practices of calculation the thesis adds to the literature on mathematical research as embodied and material, showing how particular practices were used to make a specific phenomenon predictable. I combine this attention to mathematical practice with analysis of why TI's researchers did this work. US historians have emphasised naval patronage of physical oceanography in this period but there is very little secondary literature for the British case. The thesis provides a British case study of patronage of physical oceanography, emphasising the influence on TI's work not only of naval patronage but also of local government, civil state and industrial patronage. Before TI's establishment Proudman argued that it should research storm surges to improve the Laplacian theory of tides. However, when the new Institute received patronage from the local shipping industry this changed and the work on forecasting surges was initially done as part of a project to improve the accuracy of tidal predictions, earning TI further patronage from the local shipping industry. After a flooding event in 1928 the reasons for the work and the patronage again shifted. Between then and 1959 TI did this work on commission from various patrons, including local government, civil state and military actors, which connected their patronage to national debates about state involvement in flood defence. To understand why TI's researchers worked on forecasting surges I analyse this complex mix of patrons and motivations. I argue that such complex patronage patterns could be fruitfully explored by other historians to further existing debates on the patronage of oceanography.

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall retrieval algorithms are evaluated in tropical cyclones (TCs). Differences between the Precipitation Radar (PR) and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) retrievals are found to be related to the storm region (inner core vs. rainbands) and the convective nature of the precipitation as measured by radar reflectivity and ice scattering signature. In landfalling TCs, the algorithms perform differently depending on whether the rainfall is located over ocean, land, or coastal surfaces. Various statistical techniques are applied to quantify these differences and identify the discrepancies in rainfall detection and intensity. Ground validation is accomplished by comparing the landfalling storms over the Southeast US to the NEXRAD Multisensor Precipitation Estimates (MPE) Stage-IV product. Numerous recommendations are given to algorithm users and developers for applying and interpreting these algorithms in areas of heavy and widespread tropical rainfall such as tropical cyclones.