Freshwater systems have, during human history, endured large-scale impacts. According to the water framework directive, measures must be developed to create a better environment for species in, and connected to, freshwater systems. Hydropower plants has caused loss of natural disturbance (e.g., floodings). Using already collected data from vegetation inventory in the riparian zone, probable distribution curves were created to find flooding requirements of different plant species, and linear regression analyses were run to see if hours of flooding and elevation above sea level had an effect on species richness and vegetation cover in the riparian zone. A model of Bredforsen 3 was conducted by using modelled values obtained from Vattenfall AB, with the aim to answer the following questions: How is riparian vegetation in mixed alluvial forests in reaches affected by static minimum flow levels structured according to flow dynamics? What would the zonation of riparian vegetation look like in an unregulated situation? How can minimum flow in Bredforsen be designed to better match the flooding regime similar to a natural riparian vegetation? Species richness showed to be dependent on elevation. Furthermore, significant results for species richness and vegetation cover both showed to be dependent on hours of flooding in the riparian zone for two of the three inventoried areas. In the alluvial forest, Picea abies, was not affected by hours of flooding. This might be caused by a low number of replicates available in Bredforsen of P. abies. In contrast, Quercus robur did show a significance towards hours of flooding and a vague negative trend for trees with high inundation distributed on lower elevations, though, it seems more parameters are affecting its distribution. The probable species distribution curves revealed the riparian zone in Bredforsen lack the clear vegetative zones visible along unregulated rivers. However, the model created for Bredforsen 3, following the assumptions of Ström et al. (2012) showed that today two vegetative zones, are apparent in Bredforsen 3 (amphibian zone and upland vegetation). With the modelled flow, a third zone (riparian forest) could appear. Because Bredforsen is a Natura 2000 reserve, the minimum flow needs alteration to mimic a relatively natural flow, which could lead to all vegetative zones to develop (amphibian zone, graminoids, willow shrubs, riparian forest, and upland vegetation). This could be achieved by using the spill water from Söderfors and time the release of spill to natural flow events. The model made from Bredforsen 3 indicates that this could cause positive changes in the riparian zone where a more natural distribution of vegetative zones is in place, meaning that species distribution returns to previous distribution patterns and would help disturbance dependent species.

Diante do crescimento de ameaças extremas, a gestão do risco de desastres é um campo em transformação. Marcos internacionais, que promovem a preparação da resiliência física e financeira nos países, e a lei que institui a Política Nacional de Proteção e Defesa Civil, orientam a mudança de foco da resposta à prevenção, exigindo desdobrar o tema em agendas urbanas variadas. Compreender fatores que amplificam riscos é um dos pontos dessa agenda: em contextos adensados, há vulnerabilidade criada pela própria complexidade e interdependência de grandes sistemas de infraestrutura urbana. Sobre ela, a precariedade urbana acumula vulnerabilidades que podem não resultar em simples soma, mas na escalada dos riscos. Situações classificadas como baixo risco por um setor, quando associadas, podem desencadear efeitos de grande escala. Contribuindo como método para análise de riscos desse contexto, esta tese aborda dimensão desafiadora: a Região Metropolitana de São Paulo como segunda natureza. Compreende desastres como falhas de sistemas urbanos, e busca analisar interfaces em risco que podem amplificar impactos. Identifica, nos conflitos entre escalas local e regional, riscos residuais, falhas sistêmicas, de interface e de desenvolvimento intersetorial. Como base empírica, levanta instrumentos de planejamento e de identificação de risco já existentes e potenciais, e desenvolve análise quantitativa de ocorrências na abrangência Metropolitana para os últimos 10 anos. A análise qualitativa, baseada em notícias de jornal dos períodos com eventos mais críticos, foi desdobrada por meio de entrevistas e levantamento de processos, planos, propostas e programas existentes para 3 casos emblemáticos na RMSP: inundações persistentes no Jardim Pantanal; conflitos entre ocupação, controle de inundação e o Sistema Cantareira na região Norte; e conflitos nos aproveitamentos hídricos a oeste, com impactos extrametropolitanos. As conclusões conduzem a uma agenda específica de pesquisa urbana, como campo que pode conferir visão integradora e de coordenação ao tema da gestão de riscos. / As extreme weather threats rise, disaster risk management field constantly change. Both the International policy frameworks, which promote physical and financial resilience to the countries, and the Brazilian National Policy on Civil Protection and Defense, are driving the focus from response to prevention. This requires a deeper and broader understanding of risk management in urban agenda. Understanding conditions that amplify risks is one of the points of this agenda: there are vulnerabilities created by the very complexity and interdependence of large urban infrastructure systems in large cities and metropolises. On them, urban precariousness overlaps vulnerabilities that may not result in simple sum, but in the escalating of risks. Situations classified as low risk by one sector, when associated, can trigger large-scale effects. Proposing a method for risk analysis of these situations, this thesis addresses a challenging dimension: the São Paulo Metropolitan Region and its second nature. It understands disasters as failures of urban systems, and analyzes interfaces at risk that can increase impacts. It identifies residual risks, interface and systemic failures, and intersectoral development gaps in local and regional cross-scale conflicts. The research was based on surveying existing and potential urban planning instruments and risk identification instruments, and on quantitative analysis of occurrences within the metropolitan area for the last decade. The qualitative analysis was based on newspaper reports from the periods with the most critical events. It was detailed through interviews and survey of existing processes, plans, proposals and programs for 3 emblematic cases in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area: floods in Jardim Pantanal, in the east region; conflicts between urban settlements, flood control and the Cantareira Water Supply System in the north region; and water resources conflicts in the west region, with extra-metropolitan impacts. The conclusions lead to a specific research urban agenda, as a field that might integrate and coordinate actions towards a more effective urban risk management.

La thèse, inscrite en octobre 2009, a été rattrapée par l’actualité, suite aux submersions liées à la tempête Xynthia de février 2010. En raison du changement climatique et de la pression foncière toujours plus forte sur le littoral, la vulnérabilité des activités humaines à la submersion marine ne fera que croître, en fonction de l’élévation du niveau marin. Les outils juridiques doivent donc se renouveler : non seulement ils doivent garantir que cesse l’urbanisation sur les zones vulnérables du littoral, mais ils doivent également accompagner la relocalisation de certains biens ou activités déjà menacés en associant acteurs publics et assureurs. L’anticipation nécessaire aujourd’hui doit permettre de réfléchir de façon participative aux notions de solidarité, d’équité, ainsi qu’à l’acceptabilité des solutions à mettre en œuvre à l’avenir. La thèse porte sur les moyens juridiques et assurantiels qui peuvent être mis en œuvre pour réduire la vulnérabilité des biens et des activités humaines face aux submersions marines, et sur la mise en œuvre de moyens de protection, de prévention, et/ou d’adaptation pour réduire les conséquences humaines et économiques de ce risque. L’observation des outils existants et de leurs limites conduit à rechercher et proposer de nouveaux mécanismes juridiques innovants. Parallèlement à la question du rôle des acteurs publics, étatiques ou locaux, se pose celle de l’assurabilité de ce risque émergent et de l’impact qu’il peut avoir sur les enjeux financiers des assureurs. De fait, le rôle que ces derniers peuvent jouer dans l’élaboration de stratégies de prévention ou de mitigation de ces risques peut s’avérer important / This thesis, registered in October 2009, has been effected by recent revents; the floods that were caused by the storm, Xynthia, in February, 2010. Due to the climate change and to the land pressure still stronger on the coast, the vulnerability of the human activities in the flooding will only increase, according to the rise of the marine level. The legal tools thus have to be renewed: they have not only to guarantee the stop of the urbanization on the vulnerable zones of the coast, but they also have to accompany the relocation of some properties or activities already threatened by associating public actors and insurers. Today, the necessary anticipation has to allow to think in a participative way about the notions of solidarity, equity, and also the acceptability of the solutions to be implemented in the future. This thesis concerns the implementation of legal and insurance means to reduce the vulnerability of the properties and human activities in front of the floodings, and of the means of protection, prevention, and/or adaptation to reduce the human and economic consequences of this risk. The observation of the existing tools and their limits, leads to look for and to propose new innovative legal mechanisms. At the same time, as the question of the role of the public, state or local actors, settles the insurability of this emergent risk and the impact he can have on the financial stakes of the insurers. Actually, the role which the insurers can play in the elaboration of strategies of prevention or mitigation of these risks can become important

Behovet av klimatanpassning i kustområden är stort, och fortsätter öka världen över. Naturbaserade lösningar (NBS) är flexibla och multifunktionella åtgärder som samverkar med naturliga processer, vilket gör dem anpassningsbara till förändrade förhållanden, till skillnad från hårda kustskydd. Genom denna studies kvalitativa intervjuer med fyra skånska kustkommuner har förutsättningar för NBS att främja klimatanpassning visats vara på god väg. Kustkommunerna ser NBS som ett självklart förstahandsval inom kustskydd. NBS har fått större genomslag i och med ökat samarbete på lokal, regional, nationell och internationell nivå genom nätverk och projekt, vilket har möjliggjort stort utbyte av praktiska lärdomar och kunskap om NBS, naturliga processer och klimatförändringars effekt i kustområden. Samverkan är en viktig del i klimatanpassningsarbetet där samlad expertis bidrar till gemensam förståelse för NBS funktion och mervärden. Idag finns konsensus om ett naturbaserat arbetssätt, där tjänstepersoners och eldsjälars kunskap, intresse och engagemang spelar en avgörande roll för det kommunala arbetet med NBS. Deltagande i NBS-projekt ger mer praktisk erfarenhet och synliggör åtgärdernas positiva effekter, vilket i sin tur kan skapa lokala politiska incitament för att integrera och använda NBS ytterligare i klimatanpassningsarbetet. Dock påträffas flertalet svårigheter, i huvudsak gällande förlegad lagstiftning som inte är kompatibel med NBS flexibilitet, tidskrävande och komplicerade tillståndsprocesser samt frånvaron av uttalat tillvägagångssätt gällande gränsöverskridande åtgärder för hur kommuner, myndigheter samt enskilda fastighetsägare ska samarbeta och dela på ansvaret. För att kunna normalisera och skala upp implementering behöver NBS bli inkluderade som standardalternativ vid beslut om olika kustskyddsåtgärder. Svenska kustkommuner kommer behöva ta ställning och diskutera acceptansen för klimatförändringars olika grad av påverkan i kustområden, där obekväma beslut och övervägandet av andra strategier såsom förändrad markanvändning och planerad reträtt väntas bli mer påträngande. Studiens resultat kan förhoppningsvis uppmuntra naturbaserade insatser inom svenskt klimatanpassningsarbete ytterligare, för att säkerhetsställa levande kustområden där natur och samhällen kan bevaras och klimatsäkras för dagens och framtida klimatförändringar. / The need for climate adaptation in coastal areas is great, and continues to increase worldwide. Nature-based solutions (NBS) are flexible and multifunctional measures that interact with natural processes, which makes them adaptable to changing conditions, as opposed to hard coastal protection. Through this study's qualitative interviews with four southern Swedish coastal municipalities, the conditions for NBS to promote climate adaptation have been shown to be on the right track. The coastal municipalities see NBS as an obvious first choice in coastal protection. NBS have had a greater breakthrough by increased cooperation at local, regional, national and international level through networks and projects, which has enabled a great exchange of practical lessons and knowledge about NBS, natural processes and the effect of climate change in coastal areas. Collaboration is an important part of the climate adaptation work, where collective expertise contributes to a common understanding of NBS' function and co-benefits. Today, there is consensus on a nature-based approach, where the knowledge, interest and commitment of officials and champions play a crucial role in the municipal work with NBS. Participation in NBS projects provides more practical experience and highlights the positive effects of the measures, which in turn can create local political incentives to further integrate and implement NBS in climate adaptation work. However, many difficulties are encountered, mainly regarding outdated legislation that is not compatible with NBS flexibility, time-consuming and complicated permit processes, and the absence of a stated approach regarding cross-border measures for how municipalities, authorities and individual property owners should cooperate and share responsibility. To be able to normalize and scale up implementation, NBS needs to be included as a standard alternative when deciding on various coastal protection measures. Swedish coastal municipalities will need to take a stand and discuss acceptance of climate change's different level of impact in coastal areas, where uncomfortable decisions and the consideration of other strategies such as changed land-use and planned retreat are expected to become more intrusive. The results of the study can hopefully encourage nature-based initiatives in Swedish climate adaptation work further, to ensure living coastal areas where nature and communities can be preserved and climate-secured for current and future climate change.