This thesis examines scaling properties of petrol and diesel prices in the Czech Republic and a crude oil price over the period from January 2004 to February 2013. Using generalised Hurst exponent and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis techniques we find out that crude oil market is efficient, do not contain long memory and the returns exhibit monofractal behaviour. On the other hand, petrol and diesel markets in the Czech Republic are not efficient, because their returns contain long-range dependence in autocorrelations and exhibit multifractal behaviour caused mostly by fat-tailed distribution. Thus, fuels can be modelled by complex methods like Markov switching multifractal model. JEL Classification C15, C16, C46 Keywords petrol, diesel, crude oil, long memory, multifrac- tality, GHE, MF-DFA Author's e-mail martin.baletka@ies-prague.org Supervisor's e-mail kristoufek@ies-prague.org Abstrakt Tato práce zkoumá škálování cen benzínu a motorové nafty v České repub- lice a ceny ropy na datech v období od ledna 2004 do února 2013. Použitím metod zobecněného Hurstova exponentu a multifraktální detrendované fluk- tuační analýzy jsme zjistili, že trh s ropou je efektivní, bez přítomnosti dlouhé paměti v autokorelacích a výnosy na trhu s ropou vykazují monofraktální...

Cette thèse est consacrée à l'application et au développement de méthodes biostatistiques originales pour des applications médicales et cliniques concernant plus particulièrement les pathologies respiratoires. Il s'agit ainsi d'un travail de recherche transversale, visant à la modélisation de données hétérogènes, colinéaires et de grande dimension pour des applications cliniques. Un état de l'art traitant du diagnostic de l'asthme et de hyperactivité bronchique a tout d'abord été dressé, avant de proposer une première application statistique, prenant la forme de modèles de régressions multiples. Ce type de modèle étant particulièrement sensible à la dimension et la colinéarité des données, les chapitres suivants proposent plusieurs améliorations, après avoir explicité en détail l'enjeu et les méthodes actuelles d'analyse de données de grande dimension. Un premier modèle de classification hiérarchique non supervisé a été mis au point et appliqué au cas de la quantification du piégeage aérique. Un algorithme de régression Partial Least Square a également été mis en œuvre, prédisant une ou plusieurs variables Y à partir d'un set de variables X hétérogènes et colinéaires, ce qui a permis de mettre en évidence l'impact de l'âge sur les petites voies aériennes, tout en considérant de nombreux autres paramètres. Enfin, un algorithme d'analyse fractale a été créé, en vue de quantifier en une seule valeur la complexité spatiale et géométrique d'images de scanners thoraciques, cela constituant un innovant outil d'aide au diagnostic radiologique. / This thesis outlines new statistic methods devoted to clinical and medical applications, dealing more precisely with respiratory diseases. Our goal was to model and analyze high-dimensional clinical data, often heterogeneous, and collinear. A clinical state of the art of asthma diagnosis and bronchial hyperreactivity was first stated, before proposing a first statistical application, which took the shape of multiple regression models. This type of models is particularly tricky when treating high-dimensional collinear data, which is why the other chapters are an enhancement of this first model. Firstly, a non-supervised hierarchical classification was carried out and applied to air trapping quantification. A Partial Least Square regression model was also executed, allowing prediction of one or more variables from a set of X variables, which allowed us to highlight the impact of age on small airway impairment. Finally, a fractal analysis was performed, in order to quantify the geometrical and spatial complexity of a CT scan image into a single value. This kind a prospective methodology, where the statistics are directly involved in the clinical work, represents a brand new tool which can help medical diagnosis.

CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel Superior / A pesquisa teve como objetivo correlacionar diferentes defeitos e suas criticidades, em corpos de prova de aÃo ASTM A516 grau 60 para ensaio CTOD, cujos detalhes foram feitos no metal de base, no metal de solda e na zona termicamente afetada de uma junta soldada, com os sinais de emissÃo acÃstica obtidos durante os ensaios. Quatro mÃtodos de anÃlise fractal foram utilizados: anÃlise re-escalada de Hurst (R/S), dimensÃo de contagem de caixas, dimensÃo de cobetura mÃnima e anÃlise de flutuaÃÃo sem tendÃncias (DFA). Um nÃmero mÃnimo de pontos necessÃrios para a obtenÃÃo dos expoentes associados a cada mÃtodo de anÃlise foi determinado para os vÃrios sinais, bem como o efeito de diferentes mÃtodos de filtragem nesses expoentes. Verificou-se que nenhum dos mÃtodos isoladamente conseguiu caracterizar os defeitos nem os regimes de carregamento. Entretanto, utilizando-se representaÃÃes bidimensionais de todos os expoentes juntamente com o desvio padrÃo dos sinais foi possÃvel estabelecer, de forma satisfatÃria, uma caracterizaÃÃo hierÃrquica dos defeitos e regimes de carregamento. / The research aims to correlate different defects and their criticidades in specimens of ASTM A516 grade 60 CTOD test, details of which were made in the base metal in the weld metal and heat affected zone of welded joint with acoustic emission signals obtained during the tests. Four fractal analysis methods were applied: re-scaled analysis Hurst (R / S), the box counting dimension, cobetura minimum dimension and analysis of fluctuation without bias (DFA). A minimum number of points required to obtain the exponent associated with each method of analysis was determined for the various signals and the effect of different filtering methods such exponents. It was found that none of the methods alone failed to characterize or defects charging schemes. However, using two-dimensional representations of all the exponents with the standard deviation of signals could be made in a satisfactory way, a hierarchical characterization of defects and charging systems.

The objective of this study was to examine the link between radiographic measures of bone quality and total knee implant migration as measured by radiostereometric analysis (RSA). Two uncemented total knee arthroplasty studies (n=65) with RSA and bone mineral density (BMD) exams up to two years post surgery, and one study with cemented total knees with one year RSA data (n=18) were examined. Radiograph image texture analysis was used to characterize the bone microarchitecture, and a feasibility study was conducted to determine if a given x-ray machine could be used to obtain bone mineral density at the same time as the RSA exams. Random ForestTM ensemble classification tree statistical models classified patients into groups based on implant migration with a range of cut-points. Models based on bone texture parameters measured from the two year radiographs had a sensitivity of 87.5% and specificity of 80% when classifying patients who had more than 0.3mm maximum total point motion (MTPM) at two years using the one year exam as reference. Other cut-points were examined, with models generally having a lower specificity if the acceptable migration was smaller, and lower sensitivity if higher migrations were tolerable. In a predictive model, post-operative bone texture could be used to create a model with a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 80% when predicting those subjects with cemented implants who went on to more than 0.4mm total migration by one year. Bone mineral density of the proximal tibia, as determined by clinical scanners, was not found to increase the accuracy of implant migration group classification. An empirical fit to central regions of a purposed-built cross-wedge calibration phantom returned residuals of less than ±1.5% for the bone-equivalent thicknesses. The coefficient of variation of the region greyscale values in three images spread over three days is under 4%, showing the stability of the system to hold a calibration between phantom exams and patient scans. Scatter and dynamic range issues will need to be considered for an accurate calibration across the full range of areal bone mineral densities in the distal femur and proximal tibia.

Submitted by TATIANA EMY KOIKE null (tatikoike@yahoo.com) on 2016-03-10T11:09:02Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Encadernaçao Mestrado UNESP- Tatiana Emy Koike.pdf: 1535953 bytes, checksum: 25ca75a268f1c6bf7d7ca80e833b9cbd (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Juliano Benedito Ferreira (julianoferreira@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2016-03-10T20:19:49Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 koike_te_me_prud.pdf: 1535953 bytes, checksum: 25ca75a268f1c6bf7d7ca80e833b9cbd (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-10T20:19:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 koike_te_me_prud.pdf: 1535953 bytes, checksum: 25ca75a268f1c6bf7d7ca80e833b9cbd (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-17 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Muscle injuries are often cause due to the practice of sports and recreational activities. Because of its high incidence, it is important to research the treatments that promote quality in the muscle and shorter repair process. To evaluate the effect of the combination of the therapeutic resources of Cryotherapy and Therapeutic Ultrasound in the treatment of muscle damage by impact. 55 Wistar rats was separate into groups, Acute Injury (AI), Injury (I), Cryotherapy (CR), Therapeutic Ultrasound (TU), Cryotherapy and Therapeutic Ultrasound (CRTU). All animals were anesthetize and muscle damage due to impact by the release of a load of 200 g at 30 cm. Then received treatments as allocated group and CR protocol using ice bag for 20 minutes and TU for five minutes with an intensity of 0.5W / cm2 and the frequency of 1MHz. Euthanasia was performed by intraperitoneal administration of overdose of Xylazine and Ketamine. The collection of the gastrocnemius muscle for the Body and Muscle mass analysis, histological analysis and fractal dimension of inflammation and collagen gene quantification of mRNA (TNF-α and TGF-β1). Data analysis was performed using SPSS for Windows 22. The Shapiro-Wilk test to verify the normality of the data was performed. When data showed normal, we used t test for paired samples test and one-way ANOVA followed by Tukey’s post-test. When it violated the normality of the data, followed by the Kruskal- Wallis test with Dunn’s post-test. For all analyzes was adopted the significance level of 5%. Among all groups, the CRTU lose less body and muscle mass, improved morphometry, besides presenting collagen reduction by DF compared to AI and CR (p <0.05). With regard to the inflammatory process CRTU group showed a significant reduction of DF in relation to the AI groups (p = 0.001), I (p = 0.001) and CR (p = 0.007), and TU reduced the DF significantly relative to AI groups (p = 0.001), I (p = 0.001) and CR (p = 0.036). The reduction of TNF-α was significant in TU group compared with AI groups (p = 0.008); I (p = 0.032) and CR (p = 0.046) and TGF- β1 in the CR group compared to AI (p = 0.001) and I (p = 0.006), in the TU group compared to AI (p = 0.049) and CRTU compared to AI (p = 0.023). The combination treatment was superior to the results presented by the isolated treatments in the muscle repair process. Observed by reducing the loss of body and muscle mass, improved histological appearance and reduction of collagen. / As lesões musculares são frequentemente ocasionadas em decorrência da prática de atividades esportivas e recreativas. Devido sua alta incidência, é importante pesquisar os tratamentos que promovam qualidade no processo de reparação muscular e menor duração. Avaliar o efeito da combinação dos recursos terapêuticos de Crioterapia e Ultrassom Terapêutico no tratamento de lesão muscular por impacto. 55 ratos wistar foram separados em Grupos Lesão Aguda (LA), Lesão (L), Crioterapia (CR), Ultrassom Terapêutico (US), Crioterapia e Ultrassom Terapêutico (CRUS). Todos os animais foram anestesiados e submetidos à lesão muscular por impacto pela liberação de uma carga de 200g a 30 cm de altura. Em seguida receberam os tratamentos conforme grupo alocado, sendo o protocolo de CR por meio de bolsa de gelo durante 20 minutos e o US durante cinco minutos com intensidade de 0,5W/cm2 e frequência de 1MHz. A eutanásia foi realizada por administração intraperitoneal de superdosagem de Xilazina e Ketamina, para subsequente coleta do músculo gastrocnêmio destinado às análises de massa Corporal e Muscular, análises Histológica e Dimensão Fractal do processo inflamatório e de colágeno, Quantificação gênica de RNAm (TNF-α e TGF-β1). A análise dos dados foi realizada utilizando o programa estatístico SPSS 22 for Windows. Foi realizado o teste de Shapiro-Wilk para verificação da normalidade dos dados. Quando os dados apresentaram normalidade, foi utilizado teste T para amostras pareadas e teste de Anova one-way, seguido pelo pós-teste de Tukey. Quando violada a normalidade dos dados, seguiu-se com o teste de Kruskall-Wallis, com pós-teste de Dunn. Para todas as análises foi adotado o nível de significância de 5%. Dentre todos os grupos, o CRUS perdeu menos massa corporal e muscular, melhora da morfometria, além de apresentar redução de colágeno pela DF em comparação aos LA e CR (p < 0,05). Com relação ao processo inflamatório, grupo CRUS apresentou redução significante da DF em relação aos grupos LA (p = 0,001), L (p = 0,001) e CR (p = 0,007), e o US reduziu a DF significativamente em relação aos grupos LA (p = 0,001), L (p = 0,001) e CR (p = 0,036). A redução de TNF-α foi significante no grupo US comparado com grupos LA (p = 0,008); L (p = 0,032) e CR (p = 0,046), e TGF-β1 no grupo CR em comparação aos LA (p = 0,001) e L (p = 0,006), no grupo US em comparação ao LA (p = 0,049), e CRUS em comparação aos LA (p = 0,023). A associação de tratamentos foi superior aos resultados apresentados pelos tratamentos isolados no processo de reparação muscular. Observado pela redução da perda de massa corporal e muscular, melhora do aspecto histológico e redução de colágeno.

À l’heure de la prise de conscience de la finitude des ressources et du besoin grandissant d'énergie, la notion de développement durable doit prendre une place centrale dans l'évolution de la société. Pour atteindre ce but, il est maintenant reconnu, qu'un changement de consommation profond est nécessaire ; et ce, qu'il s'agisse de consommation énergétique, alimentaire ou de produits finis. Nous croyons que ce changement de paradigme n’est possible que si tous les acteurs avancent de concerts sur les différentes problématiques auxquelles nous sommes confrontées. Chacun à son échelle doit ainsi pouvoir prendre les décisions qui s'imposent à tous. C'est la logique qui a motivé l'outil d'exergo-graphie présenté dans le chapitre 3. Inscrit dans la lignée des diagrammes de Sankey, il permet de représenter les bilans exergétiques sous forme graphique afin d’en communiquer plus facilement les enseignements. Nous l’appliquons à deux cas d'analyses faites sur les installations de chauffage et de production d’ECS du bâtiment A de l’UPN. Pour chacune, nous étudions la possibilité d’une solution de production durable de la chaleur (PAC géothermique et solaire thermique). Après en avoir présenté les analyses, nous en dressons les représentations graphiques que nous comparons à celles du système actuel. Au préalable, le chapitre 1 introduit les concepts de base de l’analyse exergétique, approfondis dans le chapitre 2, au travers d’une modélisation des systèmes fluides statiques et dynamiques. Finalement, dans le chapitre 4, nous introduisons un modèle-jouet qui, proposant une représentation fractale de la chaleur, tente d’établir un lien conceptuel entre le comportement microscopique, statistique, du support de la chaleur, et les observables macroscopiques qui la caractérisent. / At this time of awareness of the finiteness of resources, and of increasing needs for energy, the concept of sustainable development must play a central role in the forthcoming developments of our society. To do so, it is now an accepted fact that a deep change of our consumption habits is necessary; whether it is energy, food or final goods consumption. We believe this paradigm shift is only possible if all actors face together the various issues we are dealing with. Everyone, at one own scale, must be able to make informed decision. This is the idea that leads to the exergo-graphy tool presented in chapter 3. In line with the so called Sankey diagrams, it allows to graphically represent exergy balances in order to communicate more easily on their lessons. We apply it to two analysis done on the heating and DHW installations of the building A of the UPN. For each, we investigate the possibility of a sustainable heat production solution (geothermal heat pump and solar thermal energy). After presenting the analyses, we draw their graphical representations which we then compare to those of the current system. Beforehand, the first chapter introduces the basic notions of exergetic analysis, discussed further in chapter 2, through a model for static and dynamic fluid systems. Finally, in chapter 4, we introduce a toy-model which, proposing a fractal representation of exergy, tries to establish a conceptual link between microscopic, statistical, behaviour of heat background support, and the macroscopic observables that characterize it.

Cette thèse présente l’apport d’une analyse fractale de la texture de l’os trabéculaire sur des clichés de radiographie du genou pour la caractérisation de la gonarthrose. Dans un premier temps cette analyse de texture a été confrontée aux méthodes actuelles de suivi de la pathologie afin de valider leur intérêt dans le suivi clinique des patients. Un second temps a été consacré à la prédiction de l’initiation de la pathologie où aucun marqueur ne fait référence. L’analyse de texture a été menée en utilisant des approches fractales permettant de s’affranchir des problèmes de variation d’acquisition entre différents centres cliniques tout en comparant différentes méthodes de calcul. La texture osseuse trabéculaire a été analysée à différentes plages d’échelle afin de caractériser les mécanismes sous-jacents de modification de la microarchitecture osseuse induits par la gonarthrose. Nous avons pu mettre en évidence l’intérêt prédictif de cette analyse peu coûteuse et largement accessible dans le cadre aussi bien de l’initiation que de la progression de l’arthrose du genou. / This thesis presents the contribution of the trabecluar bone texture fractal analysis on knee radiographs for the knee osteoarthritis characterization. Firstly, this texture analysis was confronted to the actual methods of the pathology clinical monitoring in order to validate their interest in the patients monitoring. Secondly, the prediction of the knee osteoarthritis initiation was investigated, domain in which there are still no markers defined. The texture analysis was performed using fractal approaches avoiding the problems of the variations in the acquisition among different clinical centers and comparing different computing methods. Trabecular bone texture was analyzed at different ranges of scale in order to characterize the underlying mechanisms of the microarchitecture modification induced by the knee osteoarthritis. Thus, we highligthed the predictive interest of this cheap and largely available analysis for both the initiation and the progression of the knee osteoarthritis.

abstract: Dietary diversity is an important component of species’s ecology that often relates to species’s abundance and geographic distribution. Additionally, dietary diversity is involved in many hypotheses regarding the geographic distribution and evolutionary fate of fossil primates. However, in taxa such as primates with relatively generalized morphology and diets, a method for approximating dietary diversity in fossil species is lacking. One method that has shown promise in approximating dietary diversity is dental microwear analyses. Dental microwear variance has been used to infer dietary variation in fossil species, but a strong link between variation in microwear and variation in diet is lacking. This dissertation presents data testing the hypotheses that species with greater variation in dental microwear textures have greater annual, seasonal, or monthly dietary diversity. Dental microwear texture scans were collected from Phase II facets of first and second molars from 309 museum specimens of eight species of extant African Old World monkeys (Cercopithecidae; n = 9 to 74) with differing dietary diversity. Dietary diversity was calculated based on food category consumption frequency at study sites of wild populations. Variation in the individual microwear variables complexity (Asfc) and scale of maximum complexity (Smc) distinguished groups that were consistent with differences in annual dietary diversity, but other variables did not distinguish such groups. The overall variance in microwear variables for each species in this sample was also significantly correlated with the species’s annual dietary diversity. However, the overall variance in microwear variables was more strongly correlated with annual frequencies of fruit and foliage consumption. Although some variation due to seasonal and geographic differences among individuals was present, this variation was small in comparison to the variation among species. Finally, no association was found between short-term monthly dietary variation and variation in microwear textures. These results suggest that greater variation in microwear textures is correlated with greater annual dietary diversity in Cercopithecidae, but that variation may be more closely related to the frequencies of fruit and foliage in the diet. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Anthropology 2015

En raison des changements climatiques actuels, il est primordial de comprendre comment les écosystèmes vont réagir et tout particulièrement comment les chaînes trophiques vont être impactées. Pour cela, le comportement des oiseaux marins peut être utilisé comme des indicateurs des changements se déroulant au sein de l’écosystème. Cependant, un des défis actuels dans l’étude du comportement animal est d’identifier comment la structure temporelle du comportement est dépendante des conditions intrinsèques et extrinsèques et comment la complexité de cette organisation comportementale évolue sur un gradient allant de la stochasticité au déterminisme en fonction des changements environnementaux. Ma thèse a donc pour objectif d’étudier si un comportement complexe est adapté pour faire face à une perturbation du système chez les oiseaux marins et plus particulièrement chez deux espèces de manchots étant exposées à des changements environnementaux. / Due to ongoing climate change, it is necessary to understand how ecosystems will react and more particularly, how species may cope with the challenges of living in unstable systems. Seabirds’ behavior provides a way to monitor changes occurring in the marine environment, but identifying how the temporal structure and complexity of behavior depend on intrinsic and extrinsic parameters are underexplored topics in the field of animal behavior. My thesis aims to investigate if behavioral organization, through a gradient of stochasticity-determinism complexity, allows little and adélie penguins to buffer changes in the environment under a fractal analysis approach.

Ce travail de thèse aborde le problème de l'alignement d'images 2D obtenues en tomographie électronique dans la perspective d'une reconstruction tridimensionnelle et la détection des ribosomes à partir de l'objet reconstruit. Une méthode d'optimisation globale est proposée pour minimiser un coût qui permet d'effectuer l'alignement 3D et la reconstruction de manière conjointe. La thèse traite également le problème de la segmentation des images 3D reconstruites avec une méthode de classification probabiliste. Cependant, la nature des images de cryo-tomographie révèle des problèmes de bruit et de contraste. Deux méthodes de filtrage 3D ont été proposées comme prétraitement du processus de segmentation. La première méthode est basée sur l'intégration fractionnaire. La seconde est basée sur l'analyse multi-fractale. L'institut de recherche biomédicale IGBMC de Strasbourg a fourni les images de projection utilisées dans cette thèse. / This thesis deals with the problem of the alignment of 2D images obtained by transmission electron microscopy in the perspective of a three-dimensional reconstruction and the detection of ribosomes from the reconstructed object. A global optimization method is proposed to minimize a cost that allows the 3D alignment and reconstruction to be carried out jointly. The thesis also deals with the problem of segmentation of reconstructed 3D images with a probabilistic classification method. However, the nature of cryo-tomography images reveals noise and contrast problems. For this reason, two methods of 3D filtering have been proposed as pre-processing of segmentation, one is based on fractional integration, and the other on a multi-fractal analysis. The institute of biomedical research IGBMC in Strasbourg provides the projection images used in this thesis.