The importance of school buildings, among the built heritage of a community, is largely acknowledged. Due to past seismic events, damage or even collapse of schools have had a huge social impact. The safety of children and youth has a fundamental priority and, in addition, the unsafety of schools can aggravate social dispersion phenomena which follow an earthquake. In the aftermath of the Molise earthquake (2002), which caused the collapse of a primary school in San Giuliano di Puglia (Campobasso, Italy) and the consequent death of 27 children and a teacher, the Italian government issued a national plan for the seismic vulnerability assessment of relevant and strategic structures all over the country. The huge number of structures to be evaluated makes this operation extremely complex and, after almost twenty years, it still requires efficient and cost-effective (also in terms of execution time) tools to be effectively planned. More recently, the United Nations adopted, in March 2015, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, which is articulated in “priorities”, providing actions to be implemented. Specifically, Priority 1 is focused on “understanding disaster risk”, while Priority 2 sets the goal of “strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk”. Both objectives require to deepen knowledge of risks and of its components (i.e., hazard, exposure and vulnerability) at various territorial scale (e.g., national or urban). This thesis presents the seismic vulnerability and fragility assessment of school buildings in Italy, to address this problem at multiple scales, at municipality level and at national level, also including investigations on case studies for refined modelling. First, a prioritisation procedure to sort school buildings part of an urban stock by their seismic vulnerability is proposed. This procedure has the aim of supporting local administrations and enterprises in charge with built stocks in decision-making for the allocation of limited funds for retrofit. The knowledge process of the building stock is comprised of on-site visual surveys and retrieval of original projects documentations. Then, the priority list is defined based on the combination of a qualitative evaluation and of a quantitative capacity/demand ratio resulting from a simplified mechanics-based model. The former results from the application of a form, counting structural and non-structural deficiencies, which is proposed in this work for masonry, reinforced concrete (r.c.), and mixed masonry-r.c. buildings, by updating an existing form. The priority-ranking procedure was applied to r.c. school buildings managed by the Municipality of Padova, in north-east Italy. Then, in the second part of the thesis, the research focuses on the fragility assessment of macro-classes of buildings, representative of the Italian school taxonomy, aimed at risk evaluation at national scale. Based on the Italian school building census, macro-classes of buildings were identified according to a limited number of parameters (i.e., the construction material, age of construction, number of stories, and plan area). Fragility curves were derived for five damage states (from slight damage to complete collapse), with reference to the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS98). For masonry schools, fragility curves were derived for 265 building types by means of a simplified mechanics-based approach, named Vulnus, which accounts for both in-plane and out-of-plane responses. Fragility assessment was also carried out for a macro-class of r.c. school buildings by selecting two representative schools from the above-mentioned urban stock managed by the Municipality of Padova. A non-linear fibre model was developed for each prototype building, taking into account its specific features, such as the presence of infills and of non-seismic joints. Non-Linear Time History Analyses (NLTHA) were carried out by applying a great number of natural and scaled ground motion records, covering a large range of seismic intensities. Fragility curves were derived by statistically processing the outcomes of NLTHA. Thus, the application of two alternative approaches for fragility estimate are provided in this work. Finally, damage maps at national scale are provided by implementing the obtained fragilities, showing the distribution of expected damage for a selected return period and for observation time windows.

Submitted by Marcelo Eduardo Franzin null (marcelo_franzin@yahoo.com.br) on 2018-02-05T16:32:51Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Avaliação da fragilidade e dos efeitos da urbanização sobre o relevo no setor oeste da cidade de Rio Claro (SP).pdf: 52230482 bytes, checksum: b28f0cdfa65b81b18dba39ec59737268 (MD5) / Rejected by Ana Paula Santulo Custódio de Medeiros null (asantulo@rc.unesp.br), reason: Falta a capa on 2018-02-05T18:37:49Z (GMT) / Submitted by Marcelo Eduardo Franzin null (marcelo_franzin@yahoo.com.br) on 2018-02-06T17:24:55Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Avaliação da fragilidade e dos efeitos da urbanização sobre o relevo no setor oeste da cidade de Rio Claro (SP).pdf: 52759249 bytes, checksum: 9fd673c72386578e35a37ac419061b84 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ana Paula Santulo Custódio de Medeiros null (asantulo@rc.unesp.br) on 2018-02-06T18:07:56Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 franzin_me_me_rcla.pdf: 52552347 bytes, checksum: 755c6d507e1ace3e1fa13f31a94b7ded (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-02-06T18:07:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 franzin_me_me_rcla.pdf: 52552347 bytes, checksum: 755c6d507e1ace3e1fa13f31a94b7ded (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-07 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / A urbanização tem crescido consideravelmente nos países tropicais e em desenvolvimento; no Brasil, nas últimas sete décadas, a população passou a ser predominante urbana. A construção das cidades e a expansão das áreas urbanas tem alterado as dinâmicas dos sistemas naturais e provocado profundas alterações nas paisagens, com a criação de novas condições para os fluxos de matéria e energia no sistema relevo, suporte físico para o assentamento urbano. No âmbito da geomorfologia, a antropogeomorfologia considera o homem como um agente geomorfológico, capaz de alterar as formas e os processos geomorfológicos. Essa vertente de estudos tem contribuído com a análise ambiental dos meios urbanos e dos efeitos da ocupação das cidades sobre o relevo. Nesse contexto, a presente pesquisa busca relacionar as características físicas do relevo, a fragilidade do meio físico, a fragilidade ambiental (ROSS, 1990, 1994, 2001) e os padrões de urbanização, buscando colaborar com instrumentos de gestão e planejamento para áreas urbanas. Assim, tem como objetivo avaliar a fragilidade do meio físico e ambiental do setor oeste da cidade de Rio Claro (SP), a fim de identificar como determinadas características geomorfológicas suportam as transformações promovidas pelo uso urbano. Para alcançar o objetivo exposto, parte-se da análise sistêmica, a partir da Teoria Geral dos Sistemas aplicada a Geografia, e por um referencial metodológico e técnico aplicado aos estudos de ambientes antropizados por meio de níveis hierárquicos de fragilidade potencial e emergente, considerando o histórico evolutivo da área e os parâmetros físicos e ambientais, extraídos da análise de materiais cartográficos elaborados. A síntese das variáveis físicas do relevo na carta de fragilidade do meio físico, possibilitou uma análise articulada: dos parâmetros morfométricos, dos materiais inconsolidados e das feições erosivas, o que permitiu apontar as características geomorfológicas que suportam de maneira estável ou instável diferentes usos da terra, em áreas urbanas e rurais. A fragilidade ambiental é alterada de acordo com as características do uso da terra e o tipo de cobertura vegetal, sendo possível identificar como a urbanização acentua a fragilidade ambiental, enquanto outras formas de ocupação e cobertura vegetal atenuaram a fragilidade. O modelo cartográfico para identificar os padrões urbanos e os efeitos sobre fragilidade ambiental, permitiu setorizar o ambiente urbano a partir da diversidade da forma de ocupação do solo e a capacidade técnica das infraestruturas urbanas utilizadas por diferentes classes sociais. / The urbanization has risen considerably in developing tropical countries; in Brazil, in the last seven decades the population has passed to be mainly urban. The cities’ construction and the expansion of urban areas has altered the natural system dynamics and caused deep modifications on landscapes, with the creation of new conditions to the matter and energy flows in the relief system, physical support to the urban settlement. In the scope of geomorphology, anthropomorphology considers man as a geomorphological agent, capable of altering geomorphological forms and processes. This strand of studies has contributed to the environmental analysis of urban environments and the effects of the occupation of cities on relief. In this context, the present research seeks to relate the physical characteristics of the relief, the fragility of the physical environment, the environmental fragility (ROSS, 1990, 1994, 2001) and urbanization patterns, seeking to collaborate with management and planning instruments for urban areas. Thus, the objective of this study is to evaluate the fragility of the physical and environmental environment of the western sector of the city of Rio Claro (São Paulo State), in order to identify how certain geomorphological characteristics support the transformations promoted by urban use. In order to achieve the above objective, it is based on the systemic analysis, based on the General Theory of Systems applied to Geography, and a methodological and technical reference applied to the studies of anthropized environments through hierarchical levels of potential and emerging fragility, considering the evolutionary history of the area and physical and environmental parameters, extracted from the analysis of elaborated cartographic materials. The synthesis of physical variables of relief in the letter of fragility of the physical environment, allowed an analysis articulated: the morphometric parameters, the unconsolidated materials and erosive features, which allowed pointing the geomorphological characteristics that support a stable or unstable different land uses, in urban and rural areas. The environmental fragility is amended in accordance with the characteristics of the land use and the type of plant cover, being possible to identify as urbanization accentuates the environmental fragility, while other forms of occupation and vegetation cover attenuated the fragilit. The cartographic model to identify the urban patterns and the effects on environmental fragility, allowed setorizar the urban environment from the diversity of form of occupation of the soil and the technical capacity of urban infrastructures used by different social classes.

Pile-supported ports allow seawater to run below the deck, and thus may suffer structural damages during extreme coastal events such as hurricanes. These structural damages, in turn, may result to port closures that can cause significant economic losses. Risk analysis can predict the post-hazard functionality of ports though the structural damage assessment of these structures prior to coastal events. However, assumptions on the selected demand estimates may affect the estimated probability of structural damage. This research aims to shed light on the sensitivity of the wave model selection for the risk assessment of pile-supported ports when subjected to storm surge and waves. The examined structural damage is the uplift of the deck, and the risk assessment is conducted through the development of fragility curves for a typical deck-pile connection, for which fragility curves are developed for different wave models. Uncertainties are also considered in parameters affecting the demand and capacity of the examined deck-pile connection and are propagated through the Monte Carlo simulation using the Latin Hypercube Sampling. The results indicate changes to the uplift probability as a result of the selected wave model. Thus, wave model selection can alter the uplift failure probability. In addition, the study proposes parameterized fragility models to enable the uplift risk assessment across a region. The presented results aim to throw light on the proper model selection to produce more realistic risk assessment estimates towards the resilience of coastal infrastructure. / Thesis / Master of Applied Science (MASc)

This thesis contains three empirical essays in banking. The empirical analyses focus on the role of information in banking. This will be done by analyzing the effectiveness of three types of signals that are sent by banks. The first signal is the CAMEL-type indicators that measure the soundness of the banks. The second signal is the price offered by banks in attracting deposits. The third signal is the amount of risk related information that banks disclose in their financial statements. This thesis aims to answer a few key questions that are relevant in banking. Firstly, it aims to find if CAMEL-type indicators are able to predict subsequent decisions by regulators to fail banks. This analysis will focus on the banks' liquidity ratio before and during crises in finding whether high liquidity holding and high reliance on external funding contribute towards the subsequent failure of the banks. Secondly, it aims to find if depositors discipline banks by focusing on depositors' reaction to the price signal from banks. Lastly, it aims to find if depositors react to the amount of risk-related information that banks disclose. The empirical issues are analyzed using the sample of financial institutions in five crisis led East Asian countries namely Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. Among the striking findings in Chapter 2 are that the effect of liquidity on the probability of bank failure varies before and during a crisis. The results show the vulnerabilities of banks to failure declines as a result of higher liquidity holding. The results also show that banks' probability of failure increases as a result of high reliance on external funding. Findings in Chapter 3 confirm the endogenous relationship between the price and quantity of deposits in the depositor discipline model. Panel data analysis shows that depositors' behavior in East Asia is driven by bank fundamentals and risk aversion activities and also by price movements. Dynamic panel data analysis is carried out to account for the lagged dependency of the deposits growth variable and endogeneity of the price mechanism in the depositor discipline model. The results show that depositors in East Asia do not demand a higher price for deposits. Analysis by subdividing the sample of banks into healthy and weak banks shows that the relationship between price and quantity is not non-linear. Healthy banks are not able to attract more deposits by raising price. Depositors do not discipline weak banks by demanding a higher return. Lack of responsiveness by depositors to price signals may be attributable to large the outflow of deposits that happened during the crisis period and regulations on interest rates. Analysis in Chapter 4 confirms that depositors are influenced by the content and also quantity of risk-related information disclosure. Panel data analysis shows that higher risk-related information disclosure enables banks to attract more funds only during the post-crisis period. Once the lagged dependency of the deposits growth variable and endogeneity of the price and disclosure mechanism is taken into account, estimation using dynamic panel data analysis shows that disclosure is a more effective signal in attracting deposits than price. These findings provide support to the proposition of the third pillar of the Basel II which aims to encourage market discipline by requiring banks to disclose more risk-related information. In line with the wake-up-call hypothesis, the findings show that depositors' responsiveness to the amount of information disclosure is higher during the post-crisis period. This study also finds that the effectiveness of disclosure signal varies according to the quality of banks. Depositors in East Asia reward good banks for disclosing more information but they do not discipline weak banks by demanding greater disclosure. Greater responsiveness of depositors to the disclosure signal of healthy banks compared to weak banks implies that disclosure is a more effective signal for healthy banks than for weak ones. Other issues analyzed in the thesis pertain to the relevance of the different type of econometric analysis used in carrying out the empirical analyses.

Mato Grosso encontra-se em acelerado processo de desenvolvimento do agronegócio, expandindo cada vez mais suas fronteiras agrícolas. Por outro lado, amplia a criação de áreas de conservação ambiental sendo elas estaduais ou municipais. A concepção de proteção da flora, fauna e de recursos hídricos, manejo de recursos naturais, desenvolvimento de pesquisas científicas, manutenção do equilíbrio climático e ecológico e preservação de recursos genéticos, representa um importante instrumento para a sobrevivência de muitas espécies, inclusive a humana e contribuem para a criação dessas Unidades de Conservação. A região do Parque Estadual da Serra de Ricardo Franco, localizado no município de Vila Vela da Santíssima Trindade, mesmo abrigando grande riqueza da biodiversidade, não possui nenhuma infra-estrutura de gestão do parque que vise o combate a exploração da terra, invasão por grileiros e posseiros, desmatamentos e queimadas. Diante do exposto, essa pesquisa tem como objetivo principal avaliar e analisar a situação atual e importância da geodiversidade (geomorfologia, solos, geologia, clima), da biodiversidade (a cobertura vegetal), por meio principalmente do componente geomorfológicos, para o estudo e determinação da fragilidade da paisagem como subsídio ao planejamento ambiental do referido parque. Dessa forma, a partir dessa avaliação e análise, propor ações de recuperação e restauração dos recursos hídricos, edáficos, e dos ecossistemas degradados. No desenvolvimento desta pesquisa, aplicou-se uma metodologia de estudo que englobou os estudos de geodiversidade, compartimentação geomorfológica, dissecação e declividade do relevo, pedologia, uso do solo e cobertura vegetal e precipitação pluviométrica como subsídios para a produção da carta de fragilidade potencial da região. As cartas com dados geomorfológicos, geológicos e pedológicos foram confeccionados a partir da base de dados de cartas disponíveis pelo IBGE/DSG, CPRM e pela SEPLAN/MT, na escala de 1:1.000.000; 1:500.000, 1::250.000; 1:100.000 e 1:50.000, atualizadas com dados de imagens LANDAST 5 TM de 1993 a 1955 e 2005 a 2011, sendo as Folhas SD -20 Z B e SD 20 Z D/SE 20 X B, Mapa 001 MIR 369 e 385/401 as que demonstram o território do Parque Estadual Serra Ricardo Franco. Os resultados obtidos demonstram um relativo equilíbrio ambiental, que ocorre em função dos fatores naturais e pela forma de uso do solo do interior do Parque. Entretanto, os problemas fundiários do entorno do Parque se não forem legalizados, poderão ocasionar sérios problemas ambientais na região. Nesse sentido, torna-se necessário algumas ações de planejamento e gestão ambiental e territorial no intuito de preservar as áreas ainda conservadas. A hierarquização da área conforme as classes de fragilidade potencial, associadas às análises realizadas na presente pesquisa, constituem-se em ferramenta para orientar na definição de planos de recuperação, planejamento e zoneamento territorial e ambiental do Parque Estadual Serra Ricardo Franco, inserido em uma região de grande importância geoecológica, econômica e social do Estado de Mato Grosso. Diante do exposto fica explícito que a escolha da área do Parque Estadual Serra Ricardo Franco se deve aos seus aspectos naturais, destacando a compartimentação do relevo e da zona de ecótono entre o bioma Amazônico, o Cerrado e o Pantanal do Guaporé. / Mato Grosso is experiencing rapid growth in agribusiness, expanding the state\'s agricultural frontiers even farther. On the other hand, state and municipal environmental preservation areas are also expanding. The concept of preserving the flora, fauna and water resources, management natural resources, developing scientific research, maintenance of climatic and ecological balance and preservation of genetic resources represents an important tool for the survival of many species, including humankind, and contributes to the creation of these Conservation Units. The region of Serra de Ricardo Franco State Park, located in the municipality of Vila Vela da Santíssima Trindade, despite its rich biodiversity, presents no infrastructure aimed at fighting land exploitation, invasion by encroachers and squatters, deforestations and bush fires. In view of the above considerations, this research seeks to evaluate and analyze the current status and importance of biodiversity (geomorphology, soils, geology and climate), biodiversity (vegetal cover), mainly through the geomorphological components in order to study and determine the fragility of the landscape so as to support the environmental planning of the said park. Thus, from this evaluation and analysis, we propose actions to recover and restore water and edaphic resources of the degraded ecosystems. In the development of this research, we applied the methodology comprising studies on geodiversity, geomorphological compartimentation, relief dissection and declivity, pedology, soil use and vegetal cover and rainfall as subsidies for the production of the potential fragility letter of the region. The letters with geomorphological, geological and pedological data were prepared based on the letters database made available by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE/DSG), the Geological Survey of Brazil (CPRM) and the Secretariat for Regional Planning and Development of the State of Mato Grosso (SEPLAN/MT), in scales of 1:1.000,000; 1:500,000, 1:250,000; 1:100,000 e 1:50,000, updated with LANDAST 5image data TM from 1993 to 1955 and 2005 to 2011, with pages SD -20 Z B and SD 20 Z D/SE 20 X B, Map 001 MIR 369 and 385/401 displaying the territory of Serra de Ricardo Franco State Park. The results obtained suggest relative environmental balance as a result of natural factors and the form of soil use in the interior of the park. However, land title problems surrounding the Park have not been legalized and may cause serious environmental problems in the region. Therefore, some environmental and territorial planning and management actions are needed to protect the areas currently preserved. Ranking the area according with potential fragility classes, in addition to the analyses carried out in this research, may help define recovery, planning and territorial and environmental zoning plans of Serra de Ricardo Franco State Park, a region of great geo-ecological, economic and social significance for the State of Mato Grosso. Based on the above considerations, we have made explicit that the choice of the area of Serra de Ricardo Franco State Park is due to its natural features, mainly relief compartimentation and the ecotone zone between the Amazon biome, the Cerrado and Pantanal do Guaporé.

In this dissertation, I study international financial crises. For this purpose, I build two models. In the first model, I focus on financial crises in developing, large open economies where foreign debt with various maturities and issue dates is available. The objective is to measure the vulnerability of the domestic financial system to domestically triggered bank runs and externally triggered sudden stops. The main contribution of this model is that both types of crises are treated as rational responses of domestic depositors and international creditors. Such vulnerability measures are linked to fundamentals and equilibrium term structure of foreign debt. Banks’ vulnerability to runs increases if they hold a relatively shorter term debt. Also, a larger cost of liquidating the long-term investment before maturity makes the banks more fragile. In the next step, given a domestic banking crisis, I allow international creditors to decide whether they want to stop lending to domestic banks (in which case a “sudden stop” takes place) or not. A sudden stop is more likely if (i) creditors highly discount future consumption, (ii) creditors’ current income is small relative to their future income, and (iii) the cost of liquidating the long-term investment before maturity is small. In the second model, I investigate the merits of alternative monetary policies with respect to financial fragility. In this monetary model of an explicit financial system, I motivate the demand for two fiat currencies by spatial separation and limited communication of agents. There is a domestic and a foreign currency freely traded without restrictions. I analyze the policy of a constant growth rate of domestic money supply with a floating exchange rate regime. Both currencies are held in positive amounts at the steady-state only if the growth rate of domestic money supply is equal to the world inflation rate (WIR). If the former rate is larger than the WIR, domestic currency is not held at the steady-state. Also, total real money balances held is negatively related with WIR. Finally, monetary policy in the form of a constant growth rate of domestic money supply is neutral with respect to welfare.

No description available.

No description available.

Hurricanes and earthquakes have caused extensive property damage to wood-frame residential construction in the past two decades in the United States. In order to improve residential building performance and mitigate losses from hurricane and earthquake hazards, there is an urgent need for better understanding of building performance and improvements in design and evaluation tools. In this study, a fragility analysis methodology is developed for assessing the response of light-frame wood construction exposed to extreme hurricane winds and earthquakes. The fragility is a conditional limit state probability, presented as a function of the 3-second gust wind speed (hurricanes) or spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of the building (earthquakes), leading to a relation between damage state probability and the hazard stipulated in ASCE Standard 7. A fully coupled probabilistic framework is proposed to assess reliability of the residential construction through convolution of the structural fragility model with hazard models. Finally, a comparative risk assessment addresses the similarities and differences in competing hurricane and earthquake hazards. The tools above can be used to evaluate new and existing building products, model the uncertainties that are inherent to the prediction of building performance, and manage the risk that is consequent to these uncertainties economically

The infrequent nature of earthquakes in the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS), and the fact that none with intensity comparable to the New Madrid sequence of 1811 12 or the Charleston earthquake of 1886 has occurred in the past century, have caused the earthquake hazard in the region to be ignored until quite recently. The seismic performance of reinforced concrete (RC) frames in the CEUS, which have primarily been designed for gravity load effects, is expected to be deficient when subjected to earthquakes that are judged, in recent seismological research, as being plausible in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). The objective of this study is to develop a set of probability-based tools for efficient uncertainty analysis and seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of such gravity load designed (GLD) RC frames and to use these tools in evaluating the seismic vulnerability of RC frames that are representative of the building inventory in Memphis, TN the largest population center close to the NMSZ. Synthetic earthquake ground motions for the CEUS that are available from two different Mid-America Earthquake (MAE) Center projects were used in the finite element-based simulations for determining the seismic demand on the GLD RC frames by nonlinear time history analysis (NTHA). A beam-column joint model was developed to address the deficiencies in the joints of GLD frames and was incorporated in the finite element structural models. Seismic fragilities were derived for low-, mid-, and high-rise GLD RC frames. Various sources of uncertainty were propagated through the analysis, and their significance for fragility assessment was examined. These fragilities were used to evaluate the vulnerability of the RC frame inventory in Memphis, TN with regard to performance-based design objectives, defined in terms of performance levels associated with reference earthquake hazard levels. This performance appraisal indicated that GLD RC frames do not meet the life safety and collapse prevention performance objectives that are found in recent building codes and guidelines for performance-based earthquake engineering.