In Chapter one I introduce the subject of geographic profiling, its use in criminology and its previous application to biology. I go on in Chapter two to examine the original model and develop a likelihood-based approach to fit the parameters to data from 53 UK invasive species. GP performs well on this novel problem, and outperforms other simple spatial modelling techniques. Using simulations I show that GP is particularly efficient at locating sources when there is more than a single source. Chapter three develops a Bayesian approach using Dirichlet Processes to account for the problem of multiple sources. This model was developed in collaboration with Robert Verity. This new Bayesian model outperforms the original model used in criminology and offers a range of additional information from the data. The Bayesian GP model is then used to determine the sources of malaria outbreaks in Cairo. These developments significantly improve and extend the theory and application of GP. In Chapter four I discuss the possible shapes of dispersal functions. I conduct a review of the literature and find a geometric mistake in the way linear distributions have been extracted from two-dimensional data. The correct back-transformation allows these dispersal distributions to be properly generated. Using this information; ecologists, conservationists and resources managers can now apply GP to real world problems and effectively allocate limited resources to locate sources of species invasions and disease outbreaks. I go on in Chapter five to develop a method for fitting the primary parameter sigma from the point pattern data and run simulations to show the effectiveness of this new approach. In Chapter six I illustrate the application of GP to three problems, one in criminology, one in ecology and one in epidemiology. I finish by summarising the work in this thesis and discussing the potential future developments and applications of GP.

Geographic profiling (GP) was originally developed to solve the problem of information overload when dealing with cases of serial crime. In criminology, the model uses spatial data relating to the locations of connected crimes to prioritise the search for the criminal's anchor point (usually a home or workplace), and is extremely successful in this field. Previous work has shown how the same approach can be adapted to biological data, but to date the model has assumed a spatially homogenous landscape, and has made no attempt to integrate more complex spatial information (eg, altitude, land use). It is this issue that I address here. In addition, I show for the first time how the model can be applied to conservation data and - taking the model back to its origins in criminology - to wildlife crime. In Chapter 2, I use the Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) model of geographic profiling to locate sleep trees for tarsiers in dense jungle in Indonesia, using as input the locations at which calls were recorded, demonstrating how the model can be applied to locating the nests, dens or roosts of other elusive animals and potentially improving estimates of population size, with important implications for management of both species and habitats. In Chapter 3, I show how spatial information in the form of citizen science could be used to improve a study of invasive mink in the Hebrides. In Chapter 4, I turn to the issue of 'commuter crime' in a study of poaching in Savé Valley Conservancy (SVC) in Zimbabwe, in which although poaching occurs inside SVC the majority of poachers live outside, showing how the model can be adjusted to reflect a simple binary classification of the landscape (inside or outside SVC). Finally, in Chapter 5, I combine more complex land use information (estimates of farm density) with the GP model to improve predictions of human-wildlife conflict.

No description available.

Geografisk profilering har blivit en av de mest kontroversiella och modernametoderna som används under brottsutredningar i nuläget. Framgången ochtillförlitligheten av metoden är ett debatterat ämne inom forskningsvärlden. Denhär studien ämnar att undersöka huruvida geografisk profilering är ett användbartverktyg för Polisen. Syftet med studien är att analysera hur väl metoden fungerarsom ett verktyg och komplement till en brottsutredning samt om geografiskprofilering är användbart inom bostadsinbrottutredningar. Genom att skapa ensystematisk litteraturöversikt och utföra nyckelpersonsintervjuer fann författarenatt geografisk profilering fungerar som ett utmärkt komplement till utredningar.Resultatet visade att de geografiska profileringsprogrammen inte alltid är merframgångsrika än andra metoder inom området men att de oftast är konsistenta itillförlitligheten. Resultatet visade även att metoden är användbar inombostadsinbrottutredningar så länge profilen är gjord ordentligt och utav enutbildad analytiker. Studiens slutsats är att geografisk profilering är mycket merän bara en gissningslek och kan identifiera gärningsmän om analysen är gjord aven erfaren utredare. Detta resultat diskuteras senare i studien, samt valet av metodoch möjligheter för framtida forskning. / Geographic profiling is considered as one of the most controversial andinnovative technologies used in criminal investigations today. The accuracy of themethodology has become a popular topic amongst scholars and has caused aheated debate regarding the success of geographic profiling. This study seeks toevaluate if geographic profiling is a useful tool for the police. Thus the aims ofthis study are to examine if the methodology is a viable tool during investigationsand further to establish to what extent geographic profiling has been successfullyapplied within the area of property crime, in particular burglary investigations. Byconducting a systematic literature review and key informant interviews this studyfound that geographic profiling can be a very useful tool for analysts. Further theresults showed that geographic profiling systems are not always more accuratethan simpler methods, however simpler strategies are not necessarily as consistentas a computerised system. Moreover the results indicate that geographic profilingcan be applied during burglary investigations, if done correctly and by a trainedinvestigator. The study concludes that geographic profiling is more than just aguessing game and if applied appropriately it will most likely identify theoffender. Lastly the results and shortcomings of this study, including the need forfuture research is discussed.

Syftet med denna uppsats är att utifrån ett uppdrag från Christina Innala vid Örebropolisen undersöka huruvida det går att utläsa beteendemönster hos svenska mordbrännare som kan ligga till grund för vidare geografiska analyser. I uppsatsen kommer vi att se närmre på mordbrännare och geografisk profilering utifrån svenska förhållanden. Materialet som ligger till grund för uppsatsen består av domslut gällande mordbränder och dessa analyseras och kategoriseras. De domslut som i materialet har omfattat seriemordbrännare har analyserats utifrån geografisk profilering med hjälp av mjukvaran GeoProfile. Detta för att undersöka hur brottplatser förhåller sig till fasta punkter för svenska seriemordbrännare.Sammanfattningsvis kan man utifrån vårt material identifiera sex stycken kategorier av mordbrännare. Dessa kategorier stämmer överrens med tidigare forskning. Utifrån våra geografiska profileringar kan man dra slutsatsen att seriemordbrännare tenderar att anlägga sina bränder i anslutning till en eller flera fasta punkter. Den svenska mordbrännaren är alltså inte en irrationell individ som slumpmässigt och oberäkneligt anlägger bränder. Bränderna tenderar ofta att uppstå inom en gärningsmans rutinaktivitetsområde, det vill säga att gärningsmannen vanligtvis begår brott i områden som denne känner till. / As an a assignment from Christina Innala at the police in Örebro, this paper aims to investigate whether it is possible to discern behavioral patterns of Swedish arsonists as a point of departure for further spatial analysis. In this paper geographic profiling based on Swedish conditions will be studied. The material that is the basis for the essay consists of judicial decisions regarding arson and these will be analyzed and categorized. The judicial decisions that in the material has included serial arsonists has been analyzed based on geographic profiling using the software GeoProfile. We want to examine wheatear crime scenes are related to anchor-points for Swedish serial arsonists.In summary, based on our material we were able to identify six categories of arsonists. These categories match those of previous research. Based on our geographic profiling it can be concluded that the serial arsonists tend to set their fires in connection with one or more anchor-points. The Swedish arsonist is not an irrational individual that randomly and unpredictably set fires. Fires tend to occur within a criminals routine activity area, in other words the offender usually commits the offense in areas that is known for him/her.