Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T21:00:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 ricardoguimaraesturma2003.pdf.jpg: 26051 bytes, checksum: 6b0e7c9776874c4cca5c9858858c0951 (MD5) ricardoguimaraesturma2003.pdf: 727728 bytes, checksum: 272d253073f46e9107c81183c0f3c8e9 (MD5) ricardoguimaraesturma2003.pdf.txt: 144090 bytes, checksum: 0f11f9c2b4a271b484873c9b7e941fbe (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-01-18T00:00:00Z / In general, the observations made by Myers and Thompson in their 1989 paper titled “Generalized Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation” were also observed in this research for the case of the Brazilian Fed Cattle commodity. Myers and Thompson demonstrated in theory and in practice that the use of the slope coefficient of the simple regression using price levels, price changes or price returns are all equally inappropriate except under special conditions. Such conditions are very restrictive for the price levels and price returns, but quite suitable when using price changes. To prove this, Myers and Thompson developed a robust general model that could set the parameters to compare different approaches in order to estimate the optimal hedge ratio. The optimal hedge ratio is defined by the relation between the conditional covariance matrix of cash and futures prices, and the conditional variance of futures prices. Therefore, the problem is to determine the ratio with the relevant information at the conditional moment when the hedge is implemented. In this study, the co-integration model with error correction term was utilized to simulate the general approach. The representative data set of the cash and the futures prices used were respectively the “Indicador ESALQ/BM&F do Boi Gordo” (average daily price of fed cattle from selective places) and the daily adjusted price of fed cattle contracts, negotiated at BM&F (Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange). The objectives of this research were: explore the assumptions and findings from Myers and Thompson, applied to the Brazilian fed cattle market, understand the effects of hedge horizon, and the frequency of the data set (daily or weekly prices) to estimate the optimal hedge ratio. The importance to work with a larger hedge horizon relies on the fact that agents require more than 30 days to execute their operations. It is demonstrated that the weekly data, showed better results due to less serial autocorrelation of residuals and, that the simple regressions of price changes generated the closest estimation of the hedge ratio compared to the general model. It was also observed that the optimal hedge ratio decreases as the hedge horizon increases. / As observações relatadas por Myers e Thompson, em seu artigo 'Generalized Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation' de 1989, foram analisadas neste estudo utilizando o boi gordo como a commodity de interesse. Myers e Thompson, demonstraram teórica e empiricamente, ser inapropriado o uso do coeficiente angular da regressão simples, dos preços à vista sobre os preços futuros como forma de estimar a razão ótima de hedge. Porém, sob condições especiais, a regressão simples com a mudança dos preços resultou em valores plausíveis, próximos àqueles determinados por um modelo geral. Este modelo geral, foi desenvolvido com o intuito de estabelecer os parâmetros para comparar as diferentes abordagens na estimativa da razão ótima de hedge. O coeficiente angular da reta da regressão simples e a razão ótima de hedge tem definições similares, pois ambos são o resultado da divisão entre a matriz de covariância dos preços, à vista e futuros e a variância dos preços futuros. No entanto, na razão ótima de hedge estes valores refletem o momento condicional, enquanto que na regressão simples são valores não condicionais. O problema portanto, está em poder estimar a matriz condicional de covariância, entre os preços à vista e futuros e a variância condicional dos preços futuros, com as informações relevantes no momento da tomada de decisão do hedge. Neste estudo utilizou-se o modelo de cointegração com o termo de correção de erros, para simular o modelo geral. O Indicador ESALQ/BM&F foi utilizado como a série representativa dos preços à vista, enquanto que para os preços futuros, foram utilizados os valores do ajuste diário dos contratos de boi gordo, referentes ao primeiro e quarto vencimentos, negociados na Bolsa Mercantil e de Futuros - BM&F. Os objetivos do presente estudo foram: investigar se as observações feitas por Myers e Thompson eram válidas para o caso do boi gordo brasileiro, observar o efeito do horizonte de hedge sobre a razão ótima de hedge e o efeito da utilização das séries diárias e das séries semanais sobre a estimativa da razão ótima de hedge. Trabalhos anteriores realizados com as séries históricas dos preços do boi gordo, consideraram apenas os contratos referentes ao primeiro vencimento. Ampliar o horizonte de hedge é importante, uma vez que as atividades realizadas pelos agentes tomam mais do que 30 dias. Exemplo disto é a atividade de engorda do boi, que pode levar até 120 dias entre a compra do boi magro e a venda do boi gordo. Demonstrou-se neste estudo, que o uso das séries semanais, é o mais apropriado, dado a diminuição substancial da autocorrelação serial. Demonstrou-se também, que as regressões com as mudanças dos preços, resultaram em estimativas da razão de hedge próximas daquelas obtidas com o modelo geral e que estas diminuem com o aumento do horizonte de hedge.

With an increasingly globalized world of multinational firms dominating the global market, firms have discovered the impact of transaction exposure on their business. To handle the risk, firms can hedge their transaction exposure with currency derivatives. This paper aims to determine and explain what variables, beyond the size of the transaction exposure, affect firms’ usage of currency derivatives for hedging purposes. Previous research shows a divided estimation of what underlying causes. The variables studied to explain the usage of currency derivatives are industry affiliation, size of firm, geographical dispersal and profitability. With a sample size of 70 major Swedish internationally active non-financial firms, a multiple regression analysis was constructed to potentially demonstrate causality. To create a method triangulation, an interview with a currency derivatives expert was conducted as a complement to the quantitative strategy. The result of this paper indicates that industry affiliation possibly affects firm’s usage of currency derivatives for hedging purposes, however none of the studied variables show a sufficient statistical significance to prove a causality. / Med en allt mer globaliserad värld med multinationella företag som dominerar den globala marknaden har företagen upptäckt transaktionsexponeringens påverkan på dess verksamhet. För att hantera risken kan företag säkra sin transaktionsexponering med hjälp av valutaderivat. Denna studie ämnar till att fastslå och förklara vilka variabler, utöver transaktionsexponeringens storlek, som påverkar svenska rörelsedrivande företags användande av valutaderivat i säkringssyfte. Inom tidigare forskningen råder delade meningar om vilka bakomliggande orsaker som påverkar företags användande av valutaderivat. De variabler som undersöktes för att förklara användandet av valutaderivat är företagens branschtillhörighet, dess storlek, verksamhetens geografiska spridning samt dess lönsamhet. Med ett urval på 70 stora svenska internationellt verksamma rörelsedrivna företag gjordes en multipel regressionsanalys för att påvisa samband mellan användandet av valutaderivat i transaktionssäkringssyfte och påverkande variabler. För att skapa en metodtriangulering genomfördes även en intervju med en valutaderivatexpert som ett komplement till den kvantitativa strategin. Resultatet av studien indikerar på att branschtillhörighet möjligen kan påverka företagens användande av valutaderivat men ingen av de studerade variablerna uppvisade en tillräcklig signifikans för att statistiskt säkerställa sambanden.

4 Abstract The present thesis focused on the differences in the usage of hedging in research articles of native speakers of Czech writing in English and native speakers of English. Hedging is considered to be a fundamental part of any academic text ensuring that the results and outcomes of one's research are successfully communicated to its intended audience. The main aim was to discover, by analysing the most heavily hedged, concluding sections of research articles, how the native Czech speakers employ hedging in comparison to native English speaking authors and if they project features typical for Czech academic discourse into their work written in English. The most important outcome of the results of this study is the observation that one of the most salient features of Czech academic discourse, which is the low degree of authorial presence and interactivity of the text, does significantly influence the way the Czech authors present the outcomes of their research in English. This is evidenced by the significant difference in the frequency of the reader-oriented hedging strategies in the NCS corpus.

This academic paper gives explanation the main points of the foreign exchange market and the FOREX risk management strategies that companies develop. Reading trough this paper we get a clear overview of the Foreign Exchange market, the main players and their function. Get a detailed picture of the Exchange rate system, its development and current status; Hedging strategies and the central roll they have in the foreign exchange risk management of companies.

Submitted by Fabio Sobreira Campos da Costa (fabio.sobreira@ufpe.br) on 2016-04-12T13:46:00Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) TESE (2015-08-18) - ABDINARDO MOREIRA BARRETO DE OLIVEIRA.pdf: 3951622 bytes, checksum: d0cb6e21050967dd0af31e235ae9d711 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-12T13:46:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) TESE (2015-08-18) - ABDINARDO MOREIRA BARRETO DE OLIVEIRA.pdf: 3951622 bytes, checksum: d0cb6e21050967dd0af31e235ae9d711 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-15 / FACEPE / O objetivo deste estudo foi verificar as configurações nas quais as estratégias de hedging são efetivas na diminuição do risco de preço da fruticultura exportadora brasileira. Tal pesquisa é justificada pela seguinte problema: caso fosse possível os fruticultores serem usuários do mercado de derivativos, não se sabe como as estratégias de hedging seriam configuradas para melhor lhes atenderem. Assim, foram calculados os preços médios mensais US$ FOB/kg entre 1989 e 2013, a partir dos dados fornecidos pelo site AliceWeb2, para as seguintes frutas: manga, melão e uva. Elas foram escolhidas por representarem 62% do valor recebido em dólares e 48% do volume exportado das frutas brasileiras. Foram usados os modelos ARIMA/GARCH para obter os preços futuros e estimar o hedge próprio, e adotados os preços futuros WTI do petróleo para estimar o cross-hedge. Realizaram-se previsões para cada abordagem de hedging empregada no estudo: Variância Mínima, Média-Variância, BEKKGARCH, Dominância Estocástica e VaR/CVaR. Em relação ao hedge próprio, o contrato com vencimento em 07 meses e em posição vendida, pela abordagem BEKK-GARCH, foi o mais efetivo para a manga (H = -0,725; HE = 35,8%); em 06 meses e em posição comprada, pela abordagem U-MEG (n = 300), foi o mais efetivo para o melão (H = 0,557; HE = 17,9%); e em 06 meses e em posição vendida, pela abordagem U-MEG (n = 300), foi o mais efetivo para a uva (H = -0,272; HE = 34,8%). Considerando o cross-hedge, o contrato com vencimento em 11 meses e em posição comprada, pela abordagem BEKK-GARCH, foi o mais efetivo, para a manga (H = 0,018; HE = 22%); o contrato com vencimento em 12 meses e em posição vendida, pela abordagem da Variância Mínima, foi o mais efetivo para o melão (H = -0,003; HE = 8,7%); e o contrato com vencimento em 11 meses e em posição vendida, pela abordagem BEKK-GARCH, foi o mais efetivo, para a uva (H = -0,022; HE = 22,1%). Vale ressaltar a dificuldade do cross-hedge a ser feito para o melão, dado os diminutos valores de H a serem realizados em termos práticos, demandando a realização de investigações futuras para melhorar este resultado em particular. / The objective of this study was to verify the settings in which the hedging strategies are effective in reducing the price risk in the Brazilian export fruits. Such research is justified by the following problem: if it were possible fruit growers are users of the derivatives market, it is not known how hedging strategies would be configured to best meet them. Thus, they were calculated the monthly average prices FOB US$/kg between 1989 and 2013, based on data provided by AliceWeb2 site for the following fruits: mango, melon and grape. They were chosen because they represent 62% of the amount received in dollars and 48% of the exported volume of Brazilian fruits. They were used the ARIMA / GARCH models to get the future prices and estimate the own hedge, and adopted the WTI future price of oil to estimate the cross-hedge. It was conducted estimations for each hedging approach used in the study: Minimum Variance, Mean-Variance, BEKK-GARCH, Stochastic Dominance and VaR/CVaR. Regarding to own hedge, the contract maturing in 07 months and short position by BEKK-GARCH approach was the most effective for mango (H = -0.725; HE = 35.8%); in 06 months and long position, the U-MEG approach (n = 300), was the most effective for melon (H = 0.557; HE = 17.9%); and 06 months and short position for the U-MEG approach (n = 300), was the most effective for grape (H = -0.272; HE = 34.8%). Considering the crosshedge, the contract maturing in 11 months and long position, by BEKK-GARCH approach was the most effective for mango (H = 0.018; HE = 22%); the contract maturing in 12 months and short position, the approach of the Minimum Variance was the most effective for melon (H = -0.003; HE = 8.7%); and the contract maturing in 11 months and short position by BEKK-GARCH approach was the most effective for grape (H = -0.022; HE = 22.1%). It is worth mentioning the difficulty of cross-hedge to be made to the melon, given the tiny H values to be realized in practical terms, which demands the realization of further investigations to improve this particular result.

In the past decades, real estate has turned into something more than just a home, it has become an investment. The interest to invest in the real estate market has increased from investors but also from private persons where the demand not only is to find a living but also perceived as an investment to make a profit or reinvest in the future.  The demand on the Swiss real estate market has increased from locals but also foreigners that want to invest in the stable and safe Swiss market. The high demand has increased the housing prices, which has raised even faster than the wages, and in turn, limit the possibilities to participate in the Swiss real estate market. It has made people less able to afford to buy a home, and many are forced to take from their pension funds to be able to pay the 20% of required deposit. This creates a risk for the future and puts not only the citizens but also the banks in large default risks since there does not exist an insurance if a price fall would occur on the Swiss market.  Many people mitigate the risks by diversification by investing in different assets in the derivative market. The market has seen a trend towards the technology development, which makes it possible to create more creative innovations at the derivative market. The increased interest in real estate and the accessibility of derivate products have led to a demand for real estate in derivatives.  This study investigates the possibilities to incorporate real estate within the derivative market, more specific within futures contracts. Futures contracts are standardized contracts between two parts that agree to buy/sell an asset at a future date and price. Real estate in futures is supposed to work in the same way, and to work as an insurance for possible price fall on the market since it can hedge the market by reducing price fluctuations, or as an alternative way to speculate within the real estate market to increase income. Real estate in futures could, in turn, allow a broader target group to participate in the real estate market since it would be a cheaper, easier and faster alternative to investing in than the physical real estate market.  The thesis confirms that there is a demand on the Swiss market for an alternative way to invest in real estate. However, the thesis discovers several difficulties with creating the product that should be managed. The thesis examining the subject together with the Swiss leader in online trading, the bank Swissquote. With their expertise in technology, Swissquote has an advantage when creating the product REF. / Under de senaste årtiondena har fastigheter blivit mer än bara ett hem, det har även blivit en investering. Intresset att investera i fastighetsmarknaden har ökat från investerare men även från privatpersoner där efterfrågan inte endast är att köpa en fastighet för att bo i, utan som även ska fungera som en investering för att möjliggöra en vinst eller återinvestera i framtiden. Efterfrågan på den schweiziska fastighetsmarknaden har ökat från lokalbefolkningen men även från utlänningar som vill investera i den stabila och säkra schweiziska marknaden. Den höga efterfrågan har ökat bostadspriserna mer än vad lönerna ökar, vilket minskar möjligheterna att delta i den schweiziska fastighetsmarknaden. Detta då människor inte har råd att köpa ett hem för endast sina löner, många är även tvungna att ta från sina pensionsfonder för att kunna betala handpenningen på 20%. Detta har skapat en risk för framtiden, och sätter inte bara medborgarna utan även bankerna i stora risker eftersom det inte finns någon försäkring mot ett prisfall på den schweiziska marknaden. Många mildrar riskerna genom diversifiering i olika tillgångar på derivatmarknaden. Teknologi trenden har gjort det möjligt att skapa mer kreativa innovationer på derivatmarknaden. Intresset för fastigheter och den ökade utbudet av derivatprodukter har lett till en efterfrågan på just fastigheter i derivatprodukter. Denna studie undersöker möjligheterna att införa fastigheter inom derivatmarknaden, mer specifikt inom futures. Futures kontrakt är standardiserade kontrakt mellan två parter som kommer överens om att köpa/sälja en tillgång på ett framtida datum och pris. Fastigheter i futures kan fungera på samma sätt, och det kan fungera som en försäkring för eventuellt prisfall på marknaden eftersom det kan säkra marknaden genom att minska prisfluktuationer, eller som ett alternativ för att spekulera på fastighetsmarknaden för att öka intäkterna. Fastigheter i futures kan även tillåta en bredare målgrupp att delta på fastighetsmarknaden eftersom det skulle vara ett billigare, enklare och snabbare alternativ att investera än på den fysiska fastighetsmarknaden. Studien bekräftar att det finns en efterfrågan i Schweiz för ett alternativt sätt att investera på fastighetsmarknaden. Den upptäcker dock flera svårigheter med att skapa produkten. Studien undersöker ämnet tillsammans med den schweiziskt ledande online banken Swissquote. Med en expertis inom teknik besitter Swissquote en fördel med att skapa produkten REF.

Kubikenborg Aluminium AB, Kubal är Sveriges enda tillverkare av aluminium och står inför flera risker i sin inköpsprocess som prisvolatilitet och leveransavbrott för sina råmaterial vilket är nödvändiga för deras produktion. Faktorer som policy ändringar och Covid-19 lägger stor risk att påverka dessa risker negativt. Studien genomfördes med olika datainsamling- och analys metoder för att identifiera och utveckla möjliga riskhanteringsstrategier för Kubal, specifikt för prisvolatilitet av råmaterial. Historisk inköpsdata analyserades för att identifiera mönster och trender i prisförändringarna. Studien utforskar även hållbarhetsstrategier för att skapa långsiktig hållbarhet och även stärka företagets varumärke. Studien ger en djup och bred förståelse inom riskhantering inom råmaterialinköp. Den ger teoretiska och praktiska exempel genom att studera Kubal som resultat och även kan användas för andra företag i liknande situationer. Slutsatsen visar att kubals nuvarande strategier är effektiva för att hindra leveransavbrott och kvalitetsrisker men är inte effektiva för hantering av prisvolatilitet. Genom att Kubal implementerar handelsstrategier och kontraktsstrategier skulle de spara kostnader i situationer som under pandemin. Det finns många olika faktorer som påverkar prisvolatiliteten men politiska händelser, marknadssituationer och i denna studie påverkade pandemin priset störst. Studien ger möjligheten för vidare forskning genom att studera andra material inom andra industrier och företag. / Kubikenborg Aluminium AB, Kubal is Sweden's only producer of aluminum and faces different risks in their procurement process including price volatility and supply interruptions for their essential raw materials which are used in their production. Factors like policy changes and Covid-19 add great risks to negatively impact these risks. The study was conducted using different data collection- and analysis methods to identify and develop possible risk management strategies for Kubal, specifically for price volatility of raw materials. Historical purchase data was analyzed to identify patterns and trends in price changes. The study also explores sustainability strategies to create long-term sustainability and also strengthen the company brand. The study provides a deep and broad understanding of risk management in raw material procurement. It provides theoretical and practical examples by studying Kubal, the results of which can also be used for other companies in similar situations. The study's conclusion shows that Kubals current strategies are effective against supply disturbance and quality risks but not effective for dealing with price volatility. By Kubal implementing procurement strategies and contract strategies, they would have saved costs in situations like during the pandemic. There are many different factors that affect price volatility but political events, market situations and in this study the pandemic affected the price the most. The study provides the possibility for further research by studying other materials in other industries and companies.

Este trabalho analisa três estratégias de hedge de opção, buscando identificar a importância da escolha da estratégia para a obtenção de um bom desempenho do hedge. O conceito de hedge é analisado de forma retrospectiva e uma teoria geral de hedge é apresentada. Em seguida são descritos alguns estudos comparativos de desempenho de estratégias de hedge de opção e suas metodologias de implementação. Para esta análise comparativa são selecionadas três estratégias de hedge de opção de compra do tipo européia: a primeira utiliza o modelo Black-Scholes-Merton de precificação de opções, a segunda utiliza uma solução de programação dinâmica para hedge dinâmico multiperiódico e a terceira utiliza um modelo GARCH para precificação de opções. As estratégias são comentadas e comparadas do ponto de vista de suas premissas teóricas e por meio de testes comparativos de desempenho. O desempenho das estratégias é comparado sob uma perspectiva dinâmicamente ajustada, multiperiódica e autofinanciável. Os dados para comparação de desempenho são gerados por simulação e o desempenho é avaliado pelos erros absolutos médios e erros quadráticos médios, resultantes na carteira de hedge. São feitas ainda considerações a respeito de alternativas de estimação e suas implicações no desempenho das estratégias. / This work analyzes three option hedging strategies, to identify the importance of choosing a strategy in order to achieve a good hedging performance. A retrospective analysis of the concept of hedging is conducted and a general hedging theory is presented. Following, some comparative papers of hedging performance and their implementation methodologies are described. For the present comparative analysis, three hedging strategies for European options have been selected: the first one based on the Black-Scholes-Merton model for option pricing, the second one based on a dynamic programming solution for dynamic multiperiod hedging and the third one based on a GARCH model for option pricing. The strategies are compared under their theoric premisses and through comparative performance testes. The performances of the strategies are compared under a dynamically adjusted multiperiodic and self-financing perspective. Data for performance comparison are generated by simulation and performance is evaluated by mean absolute errors and mean squared errors resulting on the hedging portfolio. An analysis is also done regarding estimation approaches and their implications over the performance of the strategies.

Este trabalho analisa três estratégias de hedge de opção, buscando identificar a importância da escolha da estratégia para a obtenção de um bom desempenho do hedge. O conceito de hedge é analisado de forma retrospectiva e uma teoria geral de hedge é apresentada. Em seguida são descritos alguns estudos comparativos de desempenho de estratégias de hedge de opção e suas metodologias de implementação. Para esta análise comparativa são selecionadas três estratégias de hedge de opção de compra do tipo européia: a primeira utiliza o modelo Black-Scholes-Merton de precificação de opções, a segunda utiliza uma solução de programação dinâmica para hedge dinâmico multiperiódico e a terceira utiliza um modelo GARCH para precificação de opções. As estratégias são comentadas e comparadas do ponto de vista de suas premissas teóricas e por meio de testes comparativos de desempenho. O desempenho das estratégias é comparado sob uma perspectiva dinâmicamente ajustada, multiperiódica e autofinanciável. Os dados para comparação de desempenho são gerados por simulação e o desempenho é avaliado pelos erros absolutos médios e erros quadráticos médios, resultantes na carteira de hedge. São feitas ainda considerações a respeito de alternativas de estimação e suas implicações no desempenho das estratégias. / This work analyzes three option hedging strategies, to identify the importance of choosing a strategy in order to achieve a good hedging performance. A retrospective analysis of the concept of hedging is conducted and a general hedging theory is presented. Following, some comparative papers of hedging performance and their implementation methodologies are described. For the present comparative analysis, three hedging strategies for European options have been selected: the first one based on the Black-Scholes-Merton model for option pricing, the second one based on a dynamic programming solution for dynamic multiperiod hedging and the third one based on a GARCH model for option pricing. The strategies are compared under their theoric premisses and through comparative performance testes. The performances of the strategies are compared under a dynamically adjusted multiperiodic and self-financing perspective. Data for performance comparison are generated by simulation and performance is evaluated by mean absolute errors and mean squared errors resulting on the hedging portfolio. An analysis is also done regarding estimation approaches and their implications over the performance of the strategies.

Neste trabalho é apresentado um sistema autônomo de gestão de carteiras que utiliza Redes Neurais Artificiais para monitoramento do mercado e o modelo de Black-Litterman para otimização da alocação de patrimônio. O sistema analisa as dez ações mais negociadas do índice Bovespa, com redes neurais dedicadas a cada ação, e prevê estimativas de variações de preços para um dia no futuro a partir de indicadores da análise técnica. As estimativas das redes são então inseridas em um otimizador de carteiras, que utiliza o modelo de Black-Litterman, para compor carteiras diárias que empregam a estratégia Long and Short. Os resultados obtidos são comparados a um segundo sistema de trading autônomo, sem o emprego da otimização de carteiras. Foram observados resultados com ótimo índice de Sharpe em comparação ao Benchmark. Buscou-se, assim, contribuir com evidências a favor da utilização de modelos de inferência bayesiana utilizados junto à técnicas quantitativas para a gestão de patrimônio. / This work presents an autonomous portfolio management system which uses a Neural Network approach for monitoring the market and the Black-Litterman model for portfolio composition. The ten most traded assets from the Bovespa Index are analyzed, with dedicated neural networks, which suggests future return estimates using technical indicators as input. Those estimates are inserted in the Black-Litterman model which propose daily portfolio composition using long & short positions. The results are compared to a second autonomous trading system without the Black-Litterman approach. The results show great performance compared to the Benchmark, specially the risk and return relation, captured by the Sharpe Index. The work sought to bring positive evidences for the use of Bayesian Inference techniques in quantitative portfolio management.