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Counterfactual reasoning in strategy context : a theoretical investigation of the role of hindsight in strategic foresightMacKay, R. Bradley January 2004 (has links)
The purpose of this doctoral thesis is to deepen theoretical understanding of the role that hindsight plays in foresight. The thesis argues that the past is not an isolated static state, but one that is intimately connected with the future. However, there are several biases that influence our perceptions and conceptions of the past. These biases act as constraints on strategic learning by limiting our ability to understand the driving forces that emerge from the past, play out through the present and become critical uncertainties in the future. They can result in misperceptions about events or processes, and as such, may impair foresight methodologies such as scenario thinking. Such foresightful thinking flaws are characterised by a combination of hindsight biases and creeping determinism, which result in searching for information that corresponds to people's views about both the past and the future, logical path-dependencies, misaligned dominant logics, routines, recipes and paradigms, and over-confidence and defensive pessimism. Drawing on received research in psychology, the role of counter-to-factual reasoning as a heuristic is discussed and analysed as a possible antidote to foresightful thinking flaws. The judicious use of such a heuristic device as counterfactual reasoning, both as a sense-making process and as an analytical reasoning tool applied to the analysis of historical data, the thesis concludes, is a method for investigating and discovering the past and fortifying foresightful strategic thinking.
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The Effects of Expertise on the Hindsight BiasKnoll, Melissa A. Z. Marks 22 July 2009 (has links)
No description available.
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Role of Behavioral Finance in Portfolio Investment Decisions: Evidence from IndiaSubash, Rahul January 2012 (has links)
I Role of Behavioral Finance in Portfolio Investment Decisions: Evidence from India Abstract Extreme volatility has plagued financial markets worldwide since the 2008 Global Crisis. Investor sentiment has been one of the key determinants of market movements. In this context, studying the role played by emotions like fear, greed and anticipation, in shaping up investment decisions seemed important. Behavioral Finance is an evolving field that studies how psychological factors affect decision making under uncertainty. This thesis seeks to find the influence of certain identified behavioral finance concepts (or biases), namely, Overconfidence, Representativeness, Herding, Anchoring, Cognitive Dissonance, Regret Aversion, Gamblers' Fallacy, Mental Accounting, and Hindsight Bias, on the decision making process of individual investors in the Indian Stock Market. Primary data for analysis was gathered by distributing a structured questionnaire among investors who were categorized as (i) young, and (ii) experienced. Results obtained by analyzing a sample of 92 respondents, out of which 53 admitted to having suffered a loss of at least 30% because of the crisis, revealed that the degree of exposure to the biases separated the behavioral pattern of young and experienced investors. Gamblers' Fallacy, Anchoring and...
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Examining Moderators of the Hindsight Bias in the Context of Civil Legal Decision-Making: Counterfactuals, Causal Proximity, and Self-ReferencingYork, Rachel Michelle 10 July 2008 (has links)
The current research sought to clarify the diverging relationships between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias observed in the literature thus far. In a non-legal context, Roese and Olson (1996) found a positive relationship between counterfactuals and hindsight bias, such that counterfactual mutations that undid the outcome also increased participants’ ratings of the outcome’s a priori likelihood. Further, they determined that this relationship is mediated by causal attributions about the counterfactually mutated antecedent event. Conversely, in the context of a civil lawsuit, Robbennolt and Sobus (1997) found that the relationship between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias is negative. The current research sought to resolve the conflicting findings in the literature within a legal context. In Experiment One, the manipulation of the normality of the defendant’s target behavior, designed to manipulate participants’ counterfactual thoughts about said behavior, did moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge on mock jurors’ judgments of the foreseeability of that outcome as well as their negligence verdicts. Although I predicted that counterfactual thinking would increase, or exacerbate, the hindsight bias, as found by Roese and Olson (1996), my results provided some support for Robbenolt and Sobus’s (1997) finding that counterfactual thinking decreases the hindsight bias. Behavior normality did not moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge in Experiment Two, nor did causal proximity in Experiment Three. Additionally, my hypothesis that self-referencing may be an effective hindsight debiasing technique received little support across the three experiments. Although both the self-referencing instructions and self-report measure consistently decreased mock jurors’ likelihood of finding the defendant negligent, and self-referencing instructions decreased their foreseeability ratings in studies two and three, the self-referencing manipulation did not interact with outcome knowledge to moderate a hindsight bias effect on either foreseeability or negligence judgments. The consistent pattern of results across the three experiments, however, suggests that self-referencing may be an effective technique in reducing the likelihood of negligence verdicts.
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"I knew it would happen..." - What are the risks organizations in Northern Sweden face when deciding to digitalize?Zingel, Marcel January 2023 (has links)
This thesis aims to understand the risks faced by organizations operating in Northern Sweden when making decisions about digitalization. Through empirical analysis and discussion, the study investigates the influence of hindsight bias on risk perception and the decision-making process. The findings indicate that there is an arguable elevated level of hindsight bias is observed among all participants, with varying intentions behind this bias. One specific case highlights the influence of external decision-makers and the implications of their expertise. While an organization is acting in good faith by seeking advice from individuals of expertise as external decision-makers, who prioritize utility-maximizing choices, it exposes the organization to potential non-perceivable risks. The study reveals that individuals tend to overlook the risks associated with digitalization until they face tangible implications. However, the perception of risks is not artificially altered by expertise level, but rather triggered by occurrences. Moreover, the study identifies a pattern of elevated levels of hindsight bias, primarily in terms of foreseeability, coupled with a motivation for self-esteem. This pattern emphasizes the lack of communication regarding digitalization risks, which contributes to overconfidence and myopia in the decision-making process. The empirical analysis supports the notion that positive perceptions of digitalization and a failure to acknowledge possible implications result in individuals overseeing risks. Consequently, organizations in Northern Sweden run the risk of overconfidence and oversight if they fail to question the basis of their digitalization decisions or the motives and biases of their employees involved in the decision-making process. In conclusion, this thesis reveals that the risks faced by organizations operating in Northern Sweden when making decisions about digitalization include a failure to perceive digitalization risks due to preconceived positive perceptions, which affects both employees and decision-makers, concluded from a two-perspective investigation. This behavior puts organizations at risk of overconfidence, particularly in the context of hindsight bias. Finally, the study responds to a research question inquired by past research and confirms that overconfidence reduces the availability of risks in the case of Northern Sweden.
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Handedness Differences in Hindsight Bias: Insight into Mechanisms and Theory of a Common Decision Biasbhattacharya, chandrima 10 July 2012 (has links)
No description available.
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“It had to happen”: Individual memory biases and collective memory / “Tenía que ocurrir”: sesgos de la memoria individual y memoria colectivaKlein, Olivier, Pierucci, Sabrina, Marchal, Cynthie, Alarcón-Henríquez, Alejandra, Licata, Laurent 25 September 2017 (has links)
For the purpose of the study we varied the outcome of a sequence of ambiguous behaviors performed by an imaginary individual during World War II. Compared to a control condition where no outcome was presented, this person either ended up saving Jews (heroic behavior) or denouncing Jews to the Gestapo (cowardly behavior). After one week, behavioral antecedents that were consistent with the outcome were likely to be recalled and communicated. Results suggest a tendency towards forming extreme impressions of the target, depending on the outcome. These extreme impressions in turn guide the recall and evaluations of predictability, and also impact on communication about these episodes and thereby on the formation of collective memory. / Para el estudio se varió el resultado final de una secuencia ambigua de conductas realizadas por una persona ficticia durante la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Después de la secuencia ambigua de acciones, en una condición control no se producía ninguna consecuencia, en otra condición de heroísmo la persona salvaba la vida de Judíos y en otra condición de cobardía los denunciaba a la Gestapo. Los antecedentes congruentes con la conducta final se recordaron y comunicaron más una semana después. Esto sugiere una tendencia a inferir juicios extremos a partir de la conducta final del personaje, que a su vez influyen en el recuerdo en relación al nivel de previsibilidad de la conducta del personaje, e influyen en la comunicación sobre el hecho y la memoria colectiva.
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Psychologické aspekty procesu hodnocení důkazů. / Psychological aspects of evidence assessmentHurych, Jan January 2018 (has links)
Psychological aspects of evidence evaluation: Abstract The diploma thesis focuses on the topic of judging and decision-making within the process of evidence evaluation. Its main goal is to identify and describe cognitive illusions which can have a negative impact on the process of evidence evaluation. The mutual position of psychology and law in also considered within introductory chapters. The decision making of the judges is initially described by theoretical models. Three cognitive illusions that are essential for evidence evaluation are described in the following chapter. It is anchoring heuristic, hindsight bias and confirmation bias. Eventually risks, which these cognitive illusions represent for evidence evaluation, are described and forms of countermeasures are discussed. One chapter of the thesis is devoted to the description of ego depletion, which could pose another limit for the process of evidence evaluation. Ego depletion describes decline of self-control in cases which demand conscious effort. The judges are probably in a risk of ego depletion. This phenomenon can lead to higher vulnerability towards cognitive illusions and stronger tendency to maintain status quo. Possible countermeasures are described and discussed on one hand against anchoring, hindsight and confirmation bias and on the...
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Les cadres de santé entre « culture du soin » et « culture du management »… Jalons pour une reconstruction identitaire / The identity of health managers in question : finding their feet between two visions of the health-care system : "company culture" versus "patient care culture".Sirot, Marie-cecile 11 December 2012 (has links)
Le système de santé est traversé aujourd’hui par une tension forte entre deux logiques : l’une privilégie, dans la tradition humaniste, le soin inconditionnel à la personne, l’autre privilégie, au nom d’impératifs de gestion, le management au service de l’efficacité productive hospitalière. Placé au cœur d’une organisation complexe, le cadre de santé semble ainsi condamné à un mouvement de balancier entre une « culture-santé » et une « culture-entreprise », ce qui lui confère un positionnement professionnel délicat au sein de l’institution. Comment se positionne-t-il et vers quoi évolue-t-il ? Nous montrerons que ces acteurs sont en tension et fortement clivés entre une idéologie humaniste et une idéologie gestionnaire, à la recherche de leur identité qui semble désormais problématique. Héritier d’une histoire et positionné dans un entre-deux, il se cherche. Comment concilie-t-il concrètement ces deux logiques dans son quotidien ? En quête d’un modèle lui permettant de résister aux pressions gestionnaires, il adopte une « posture d’accompagnement », se reconstruit ainsi à partir de compétences pédagogiques dans un espace informel, pour créer un antidote au management technicien et réintroduire ainsi un équilibre identitaire. Leurs capacités réflexives renforcent leur posture d’accompagnement et constituent alors un moyen efficace pour dépasser les tensions institutionnelles entre soin et management. Une formation en Sciences Humaines et Sociales, au service de leur développement personnel et professionnel, stabilise leur système de valeurs et leur permet de reconquérir une possible identité. / The French health-care system is currently faced with tensions arising from two different visions of health-care: the first one focuses on the unconditional care given to the patient in accordance with the humanistic tradition. The second one focuses on management priorities aiming for an efficient and productive management of hospitals. At the heart of a complex organizational structure lie the health managers, whose roles inevitably shift back and forth between a ‘company culture’ vision and that of ‘health-care culture’, thereby jeopardizing their professional position. Where do health managers stand and what is their future role? The aim of this study is to show the difficulties of juggling the humanistic tradition with the management-based approach and defining their identity. Health managers often find themselves in overlapping positions and strive to combine and apply the two visions in their work on a daily basis. In need of a model to resist management pressures, they act as a ‘support function’. This support stance helps them redefine their position and balances out the negative effects of technical management in health-care. The ability to look back on their own experience reinforces this support function and allows them to overcome the tensions arising from the cleavage between health-care and management. Providing health managers with a specific training in social and human sciences for their personal and professional development would strengthen their ethical values and allow them to regain control of their identity.
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Better Sorry Than Safe? : An evaluation of Scandinavian acquirers participating in European mergers and acquisitions between 2010-2017Joakimson, Anton, Lyrfors, Olle January 2021 (has links)
Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are a popular way of growing a company. This is challenged by previous research that shows that an M&A-transaction generally harms the financial key metrics of the acquiring company. The main focus of this report is to examine if there is an effect on financial ratios for Scandinavian companies partaking in an M&A as an acquirer. The effect is captured by the movements in the key metrics return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), return on invested capital (ROIC), EBIT-margin. In addition, both ESG-ranking and underlying non-financial values, like if the deal was domestic or not, the age of the executives and board gender diversity, are looked at for a better understanding of what differences there are between the performance of M&As. A database of Scandinavian companies acting within Europe was created containing the specific deal characteristics over a period of three years prior as well as three years after the deal. The statistical methods used to analyze this data were Wilcoxon signed-rank test, bivariate Pearson Correlation and Independent Samples t-test. The generated results in the aggregated dataset showed a negative performance of ROE and ROIC in the period after the deal, compared to the period prior to the deal. This result was also seen in the sub-set of foreign deals with an additional negative performance of ROA for the acquirer while the sub-set of domestic deals did not show any significant negative performance in the period after the deal. We found that it was not possible to analyze the post-period effect on ESG-ranking as the data for our included companies was too scarce. Our findings suggest, when looking at our certain key metrics, that M&A-transactions are not economically justified and that executives might be partially motivated by something other than economic performance when deciding upon an M&A. It is furthermore possible to conclude that the disclosing of ESG data has not been a priority for companies in the past and continues to be ignored by the masses which makes it difficult to progress academically in this field.
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