Natural and man-made disasters are becoming more frequent in many countries throughout the world. Countries with inadequate infrastructure and poorly planned emergency logistics are subject to such events which may lead to the destruction of a community and/or may prevent e cient and successful recovery. Despite the progress that disaster planning, mitigation and new management systems have made, the need for disaster relief continues everlasting. Extensive research is on-going to improve the various phases in the disaster operations life cycle. However, the impact of disaster will not diminish and improved disaster relief planning and management should be addressed intensely. This dissertation addresses various possible mathematical models comprising stochastic and deterministic models, to provide generic means to address the damage and consequences associated with disaster events. The models are applied to countries such as Somalia and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which have been prone to catastrophic events and poverty consequences. / Dissertation (MEng)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Industrial and Systems Engineering / unrestricted

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Yes / Social media usage in evacuations and emergency management represents a rapidly expanding field of study. Our paper thus provides quantitative insight into a serious practical problem. Within this context a behavioural approach is key. We discuss when facilitators should consider model-based interventions amid further implications for disaster communication and emergency management. We model the behaviour of individual people by deriving optimal contrarian strategies. We formulate a Bayesian algorithm which enables the optimal evacuation to be conducted sequentially under worsening conditions. / Supported by EPSRC (IDEAS Factory - Game theory and adaptive networks for smart evacuations, EP/I005765/1)

Master of Science / Department of Industrial & Manufacturing Systems Engineering / Jessica L. Heier Stamm / Coordination between humanitarian organizations is critical during the response effort to a disaster, as coordinating aid improves efficiency, reduces duplication of efforts, and ultimately leads to better outcomes for beneficiaries. One particular challenge arises when temporary facilities must be established post-disaster due to the destruction of buildings. For example, the 2015 Nepal earthquakes created a need for the placement of over 4,000 temporary learning facilities after several school buildings were damaged or destroyed. It is important that humanitarians coordinate well to fill these needs efficiently and effectively, while maintaining equity among beneficiaries in the affected areas. This means ensuring that enough facilities are provided in a timely manner, and are distributed fairly to all in need. The goals of this thesis are to study coordination strategies focusing primarily on the placement of temporary educational facilities for children following a disaster. This research also aims to gather useful data by surveying active humanitarians in order to better understand their decisions made in the field. This work uses the results of this survey, along with publicly available data published after the 2015 Nepal earthquakes to create an agent-based simulation model, and uses the Nepal case study to demonstrate the efficacy of the model framework. This research finds that organizations' initial location of operation can greatly impact the number of facilities they are collectively able to establish, the geographic disparity across the region, and the organizations' utilization. Specifically, while focusing efforts on the districts with the most need is most efficient and effective, a more uniform approach yields a more equitable response. This work also finds that there can be a trade-off between overall effectiveness and the number of partnerships established in the field. These findings show a need for further study into the intricacies of coordination between humanitarian workers. This author advocates for the use of information sharing mechanisms among practitioners, as well as further utilization of agent-based modeling as a means of studying the complex nature of disaster response. Specifically there is a need to further study educational needs as a logistical problem, and strategies for solving the post-disaster facility location problem.

Desastres são eventos complexos que exigem esforços de múltiplos atores para assistirem suas vítimas em tempo hábil a minimizar as perdas de vidas e os custos sociais e materiais da região afetada. Esta dependência de ação entre diferentes atores cria entre eles uma relação de interdependência no que tange o sucesso da operação de resposta. Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar o problema da coordenação das atividades logísticas em uma operação humanitária utilizando Dinâmica de Sistemas como ferramenta de simulação e análise para verificar como os incentivos e impedimentos à coordenação interagem dinamicamente no ambiente humanitário e como sua estrutura de causa e efeito resulta em comportamentos com impactos e intensidades diferentes daqueles desejados pelos atores envolvidos. Assim, o objetivo específico deste trabalho é desenvolver um modelo de simulação que auxilie na compreensão do problema além de utilizá-lo para sugerir ferramentas que favoreçam o direcionamento do comportamento do sistema às metas de efetividade da ajuda humanitária exigidas pelos múltiplos atores envolvidos nesta. O desenvolvimento do trabalho segue uma estrutura multidisciplinar, buscando o necessário rigor do entendimento do problema tanto na análise da literatura quanto na formulação do modelo e sua utilização. / Disasters are complex events which require efforts from multiple actors to assist their victims on a timely manner to minimize life losses and social cost at the affected region. This action dependence between different actors rise an interdependence relation among them related to the response operation success. This work aims to analyse the problem of coordination of logistics activities in a humanitarian operation using System Dynamics as a simulation and analysis tool in order to verify how the drives and impediments to coordination dynamically interact in a humanitarian context and how its structure of cause and effect results in behaviors with different impact and intensity from those desired by involved actors. Therefore, the specific goal of this work is to develop a simulation model that support the problem understanding and apply it to suggest tools with potential to drive the system behavior towards the effectiveness goals required by the multiple actors in this environment. The development follows a cross-sectorial structure, willing to apply the necessary comprehension of the problem both in the literature review and in the model formulation and application.

O número de desastres vem aumentando a cada ano e a quantidade de pessoas afetadas por estes é cada vez maior. A convergência de materiais, que é o afluxo de grande quantidade de material ao local do desastre, é observada em muitos eventos e tem grande impacto sobre operações humanitárias; em especial, nos processos de logística humanitária, como transporte, processamento e distribuição de itens necessários no auxílio às vítimas. Devido a diversos efeitos negativos da convergência - por exemplo, o emprego de recursos humanos em tarefas não essenciais e a maior demora para distribuição de material prioritário -, é necessário estudar os fatores que a influenciam e, também, como suas consequências afetam o sistema em que se insere. Desta forma, utilizou-se o método de dinâmica de sistemas para desenvolver um modelo que permita, pela análise de diversos cenários, alcançar uma melhor compreensão sobre o fenômeno. O modelo, além de permitir testar políticas abordadas na literatura, também proporciona uma simulação para o preparo em desastres reais e, no âmbito acadêmico, é o primeiro modelo de convergência de materiais a integrar tanto variáveis quantitativas quanto qualitativas e propiciar uma análise de forma dinâmica no tempo. A partir do cenário base, o caso das inundações em São Luiz do Paraitinga em 2010, foram simulados 13 cenários com o objetivo de identificar quais políticas aumentariam a quantidade de material prioritário distribuído para suprir as necessidades das vítimas. No cenário base foram encontrados gargalos no transporte e na distribuição de materiais e a análise de sensibilidade ficou restrita a uma política, limitando a generalização do trabalho. Na implementação de políticas uma a uma, observa-se que a não admissão de material não prioritário atinge os melhores resultados, seguida pela política de realocação de recursos humanos para processamento de material prioritário. Já no caso de políticas mistas, o controle de admissão com uma maior disponibilidade de recursos é o cenário que mais se sobressai no auxílio às vítimas. / The number of disasters is increasing each year and the amount of people affected by them is also getting bigger. Material convergence, which is the influx of large amounts of material to the disaster site, is observed in many events and has a large impact on humanitarian operations; in particular in humanitarian logistics processes, such as transportation, processing and distribution of necessary items to assist victims. Due to various negative effects of the convergence - for example, the use of human resources in non-core tasks and the longer delay for priority material distribution - it is necessary to study the factors that influence it and how its consequences affect the system. In this way, the method of system dynamics was used to develop a model that allows, through the analysis of several scenarios, to reach a better understanding about the phenomenon. The model, besides allowing to test policies approached in the literature, also provides a simulation for the preparation in real disasters and, in the academic scope, it is the first model of material convergence to integrate both quantitative and qualitative variables and to provide a dynamic analysis. Based on the baseline scenario, the case of the floods in São Luiz do Paraitinga in 2010, 13 scenarios were simulated to identify which policies would increase the amount of priority material distributed to meet the needs of the victims. Analyzing the base scenario there were found bottlenecks both in the transportation and the distribution of material and, as the sensitivity analysis was restricted to only one policy, the generalization of the presented work has been limited. In implementing policies one by one, it is observed that the non-admission of non-priority material achieves the best results, followed by the policy of reallocating human resources to processing priority material. In the case of mixed policies, admission control with greater availability of resources is the most prominent scenario in assisting victims.

Humanitarian logistics is a young science and complex discipline compared to business logistics because not only are actors in that arena compelled to work with outmost speed in interrupted environments having undetermined demand, they are also forced to work closely with other unknown players. Even more complex are civil-military relations because as studies show, the differences between these two humanitarian actors run deep to include contrasting missions, humanitarian principles, organizational and cultural differences. The purpose of this work is to examine civil-military relations during the preparedness and response phases of humanitarian crises. We developed a frame of reference, set forth some operational and theoretical definitions, examined overlapping supply chains, modeled organizational structures and coordination mechanisms, established civil-military cooperation framework, disaster cycle studies and proposed a working model. Our methodology included primary data collection through an empirical study of two NGOs and the military force through a series of interviews. Data culled was then analyzed in conjunction with the models and literature outlined in the frame of reference. Based on our analysis, a number of observations were made in the conclusion. To begin with a number of strategies are employed during the preparedness and response phase where speed and agility are crucial. Also, overlapping roles between the military and NGOs have both positive and negative impact. Different organizational structures and funding outlay mean differences abound in how actors coordinate activities and share information. Cooperation, trust, information sharing and coordination are closely linked when finding a strategic fit among actors. In spite of the attempt at seeking a right formula for civil-military relations, it would be erroneous to ‘standardize’ relations as no two cases are ever the same.

Abstract The frequency of natural disasters and its negative consequences in terms of the number of people killed, property destroyed and negative environmental impacts caused in the affected communities constitute one of the basic foundations and motivations for the development and use of ICT and other means of preventing as well as responding to disasters in the world today. This is simply because disaster management constitutes an important part of any developmental framework. Unfortunately a majority of these natural disasters occur in developing countries where information flow is greatly hampered because the national actors in disasters lack the skills to use ICT to prepare for and to response to disasters in their communities. Current study aims at studying the use of ICT in disaster management in Cameroon-a less developing country south of the Sahara To achieve the aim of this study, a quantitative research approach was chosen. A total sample of 150 organisations was selected from a population of 285 organisations within Cameroon, that are directly or indirectly involved with disaster management or developmental issues of any nature. In total 150 questionnaires were administered to these selected national actors by mail, internet, telephone and self-administration and 85 of the organisations respondended to the questionnaire. After collecting and analysing the data, the authors came to the conclusions that; disasters occur in Cameroon on frequent bases causing lots of damages thus the need for ICT use in humanitarian logistics to move information and material. Results showed that national actors use the radio and local TV (CRTV) for disaster preparedness and the mobile phone for disaster response, while the internet and computer techonology, foreign TV, Fixed phone and fax had a very low usage rate or sometimes not used at all. The reason for low usage or no usage was due to problems encountered by national actors in an attempt of trying to use them. Against this background, the authors suggested a number of recommendations that could improve the degree of ICT usage. One of them was that the Cameroon government should partner with private sector firms to make ICT infrastructure available by investing more and improving on the telecommunication sector in the country. This will solve the problem of poor ICT infrastructure, poor radio and TV signals, limited internet connectivity accessibility and availability in Cameroon.

<p>Humanitarian logistics is a young science and complex discipline compared to business logistics because not only are actors in that arena compelled to work with outmost speed in <em>interrupted </em>environments having undetermined demand, they are also forced to work closely with other unknown players. Even more complex are civil-military relations because as studies show, the differences between these two humanitarian actors run deep to include contrasting missions, humanitarian principles, organizational and cultural differences.</p><p>The purpose of this work is to examine civil-military relations during the preparedness and response phases of humanitarian crises. We developed a frame of reference, set forth some operational and theoretical definitions, examined overlapping supply chains, modeled organizational structures and coordination mechanisms, established civil-military cooperation framework, disaster cycle studies and proposed a working model.</p><p>Our methodology included primary data collection through an empirical study of two NGOs and the military force through a series of interviews. Data culled was then analyzed in conjunction with the models and literature outlined in the frame of reference.</p><p>Based on our analysis, a number of observations were made in the conclusion. To begin with a number of strategies are employed during the preparedness and response phase where speed and agility are crucial. Also, overlapping roles between the military and NGOs have both positive and negative impact. Different organizational structures and funding outlay mean differences abound in how actors coordinate activities and share information. Cooperation, trust, information sharing and coordination are closely linked when finding a strategic fit among actors. In spite of the attempt at seeking a right formula for civil-military relations, it would be erroneous to ‘standardize’ relations as no two cases are ever the same.</p>

<p><strong>Abstract</strong></p><p>The frequency of natural disasters and its negative consequences in terms of the number of people killed, property destroyed and negative environmental impacts caused in the affected communities constitute one of the basic foundations and motivations for the development and use of ICT and other means of preventing as well as responding to disasters in the world today. This is simply because disaster management constitutes an important part of any developmental framework. Unfortunately a majority of these natural disasters occur in developing countries where information flow is greatly hampered because the national actors in disasters lack the skills to use ICT to prepare for and to response to disasters in their communities. Current study aims at studying the use of ICT in disaster management in Cameroon-a less developing country south of the Sahara</p><p>To achieve the aim of this study, a quantitative research approach was chosen. A total sample of 150 organisations was selected from a population of 285 organisations within Cameroon, that are directly or indirectly involved with disaster management or developmental issues of any nature. In total 150 questionnaires were administered to these selected national actors by mail, internet, telephone and self-administration and 85 of the organisations respondended to the questionnaire.</p><p>After collecting and analysing the data, the authors came to the conclusions that; disasters occur in Cameroon on frequent bases causing lots of damages thus the need for ICT use in humanitarian logistics to move information and material. Results showed that national actors use the radio and local TV (CRTV) for disaster preparedness and the mobile phone for disaster response, while the internet and computer techonology, foreign TV, Fixed phone and fax had a very low usage rate or sometimes not used at all. The reason for low usage or no usage was due to problems encountered by national actors in an attempt of trying to use them. Against this background, the authors suggested a number of recommendations that could improve the degree of ICT usage. One of them was that the Cameroon government should partner with private sector firms to make ICT infrastructure available by investing more and improving on the telecommunication sector in the country. This will solve the problem of poor ICT infrastructure, poor radio and TV signals, limited internet connectivity accessibility and availability in Cameroon.<strong></strong></p>