La vapeur d'eau est une composante clé du système climatique. Sa distribution et sa variabilité sont des sources d'incertitude dans les modèles climatiques. L'utilisation d'observations et des réanalyses des Contenus Intégrés en Vapeur d'Eau (CIVE) peut faciliter leur évaluation. Dans ce travail, des données CIVE-GPS retraitées du réseau mondial ont été utilisées pour la période 1995-2010. Afin d'évaluer les incertitudes et les inhomogénéités dans les séries GPS, une comparaison globale avec les données de réanalyse ERA-Interim a été faite. Un bon accord général a été trouvé sur les moyennes, la variabilité et les tendances ait été trouvé. Des interruptions et inhomogénéités ont été constatées dans les séries GPS, ainsi que les problèmes de représentativité dans les zones côtières et de topographie complexe. Dans ERA-Interim, des tendances trop fortes ont été constatées dans certaines régions. ERA-Interim a aussi été comparé avec d'autres réanalyses (MERRA-2, ERA-20C, 20CR), et des différences ont été trouvées dans les tendances de les CIVE sur l'Afrique, l'Australie et l'Antarctique. Enfin, les jeux de données CIVE-GPS et CIVE-ERA-Interim ont été utilisés pour évaluer quatre configurations du modèle de circulation générale atmosphérique LMDZ avec deux physiques, libres et guidées avec les vents d'ERA-Interim. Il a été trouvé que la nouvelle physique est plus humide aux latitudes tropicales. Sans guidage, pour les deux physiques, le modèle présente des difficultés à reproduire les tendances et la variabilité obtenues par GPS et par ERA-Interim. Cela confirme l'importance de la dynamique à grande échelle pour les tendances et la variabilité des CIVE. / Water vapour is a key component of the Earth’s climate system, and its distribution and variability are sources of uncertainty in climate models. The use of long-term integrated water vapour (IWV) observations and reanalyses can help in their assessment. This work pioneered the use of reprocessed GPS IWV data for 1995-2010, converted from estimates of Zenith Total Delay. The conversion was assessed, with the goal of producing a high quality long-term IWV data set. Due to uncertainties in the GPS observations and homogeneity concerns, a global comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis data was made. Although a general good agreement in means, variability and trends was found, issues in both data sets were highlighted. In GPS, gaps and inhomogeneities in the time series were evidenced, as well as representativeness differences in coastal areas and regions of complex topography. In ERA-Interim, too strong trends in certain regions were found. ERA-Interim was also compared with other reanalyses (MERRA-2, ERA-20C, 20CR), and differences were found in the IWV trends over Africa, Australia, and Antarctica. Finally, GPS and ERA-Interim IWV were used to assess four configurations of the LMDZ atmospheric general circulation model with two different physics and with or without nudging towards ERA-Interim wind fields. Impact of the model physics on the IWV mean was found, with the new physics being moister at tropical latitudes. Overall, the model free runs in both physics have difficulty reproducing the trends and variability observed in ERA-Interim and GPS. This is improved with the nudging, which confirms the importance of large-scale dynamics on IWV trends and variability.

Submitted by Dilene Paulo (dilene.fatima@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-03-06T14:54:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 SUÊNIO ANDERSON FELICIANO DA SILVA – DISSERTAÇÃO PPGECA 2016.pdf: 3921966 bytes, checksum: 53c3555eef829b588ba9d5d3ac4ca044 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-03-06T14:54:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 SUÊNIO ANDERSON FELICIANO DA SILVA – DISSERTAÇÃO PPGECA 2016.pdf: 3921966 bytes, checksum: 53c3555eef829b588ba9d5d3ac4ca044 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-12-07 / No semiárido brasileiro, a situação de escassez hídrica compromete o desenvolvimento econômico e social da região. Assim, torna-se necessário desenvolver ferramentas adequadas para apoiar a tomada de decisão quanto ao uso dos recursos hídricos, de maneira a encontrar alternativas de adaptação da agricultura, principalmente, em perímetros irrigados, às alterações climáticas enfrentadas. Particularmente nos perímetros irrigados criados pelo Departamento Nacional de Obras Contra Seca (DNOCS), torna-se um desafio o uso dos recursos hídricos, em decorrência do descompasso da oferta e demanda de água nestes locais, agravado pela falta de planejamento quanto ao uso destes recursos. Nesse sentido, este trabalho tem como objetivo a utilização do (Processo de Análise Hierárquica) AHP em (Sistema de Informações Geográficas) SIG como ferramenta para auxiliar a tomada de decisão quanto ao uso dos recursos hídricos no perímetro irrigado de Sumé-PB. O diagnóstico qualiquantitativo demonstrou que dos recursos hídricos, o que possui melhor qualidade química e microbiológica corresponde à água superficial, e que, para viabilização integral da irrigação no perímetro são necessárias, no mínimo, duas fontes hídricas como água superficial e subterrânea. A modelagem espacial multicritério demonstrou que dentre os critérios utilizados, o mais restritivo corresponde à qualidade da água, isto é comprovado mediante as faixas de adequação e inadequação obtidas nas alternativas concebidas pelo modelo espacial. A água residuária por revelar uma qualidade inferior em comparação às águas subterrânea e superficial apresentou uma maior faixa de inadequação nas alternativas geradas, considerando pesos semelhantes no processo hierárquico para os critérios técnicos, econômicos e ambientais dentro do modelo para os recursos hídricos estudados. Com base nas alternativas geradas pelo modelo para água superficial e subterrânea, gerou-se um cenário para o gerenciamento integrado dos recursos para uma área irrigável de aproximadamente 118 hectares com água superficial, 112 hectares com água subterrânea e 58 hectares ditos inadequados para o uso de tais recursos. / Water Scarcity disrupts an economic and social development for the whole Brazilian semi-arid region. In order to minimize this problem, suitable decision-making tools can be used for helping on agriculture and climate change adaptations in irrigated crop areas. In the National Department of Works Against Drought (DNOCS) irrigated areas, it becomes a challenge the water management by the irregular proportionality among offer and demand, compounded by a bad water use planning. In this sense, this dissertation proposes an integrated use of (Analytic Hierarchy Process) AHP and (Geographic Information System) GIS tools for helping an integrated water management in Sumé-PB area. Through a qualitative and quantitative analysis, it shows that the surface water source has a better water quality (microbiological and chemical). It also shows for irrigating the whole area it will be necessary at least two different water sources (as surface water and groundwater as well). The spatial multicriteria modeling comes up the water quality as the most restrictive criteria. It can be proofed by the suitability ranges obtained by the alternatives suggested on the spatial modeling. The waste water revealed a low quality comparing with the groundwater and surface water. Using similar weights for hierarchical analysis of all criterion (technical, economic and environmental), the model shows a wide “no suitability” range for waste water sources (reuse). Based on the generated alternatives for surface and groundwater, a scenario was simulated to an integrated water resources management of the crops areas. Results are approximately 118 hectares recommended by the model to be irrigated by surface water, 112 hectares by groundwater and 58 hectares are not appropriate to use any water resources.

La Ley de Recursos Hídricos (No 29338) de 2009 transformó el marco normativo e institucional del sector hídrico en el Perú hacia un enfoque en la Gestión Integrada de Recursos Hídricos (GIRH). Este cambio fue significativo después de 40 años de vigencia de la ley anterior que priorizaba el uso agrícola del recurso hídrico. A través de un análisis del marco normativo actual y la institucionalidad existente combinado con una mirada a las relaciones históricas entre la burocracia hídrica del Estado y la sociedad peruana, este artículo argumenta que la institucionalidad del agua contemporánea refleja la persistencia de una cultura tecnocrática basada en la ingeniería y la manipulación y control de la naturaleza que predominaba al nivel global en el siglo 20. El trabajo muestra como la burocracia hídrica actual en el Perú ha consolidado su autoridad sobre el agua a través de la asimilación y desarrollo de una variante de la GIRH que prioriza el establecimiento de derechos formales al agua, el reconocimiento del valor económico del recurso hídrico, y un creciente enfoque en la eficiencia del uso del agua. / The 2009 Hydrologic Resources Law (Law 29338) shifted the legal and institutional framework in Peru’s water sector toward a focus on Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM). This change formally ended the explicit prioritization of water for agricultural uses that had prevailed for four decades under the prior legal regime enacted during the nation’s agrarian reform. This article combines analysis of Peru’s current legal and institutional setting for water management with examination of the historical dynamics betweenthe state water bureaucracy and Peruvian society to argue that the existing arrangements for water governance reflect the enduring influence of an engineer-led technocracy rooted in the high-modernist approaches of the 20th century. The article illustrates how the state bureaucracy has consolidated centralized authority over the water sector through assimilation and adaptation of the IWRM paradigm and the development of a water regime that prioritizesthe formalization of water rights, recognition of the economic value of water, and water-use efficiency.

Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-10T17:44:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Neimar_Afonso_Sornberger.pdf: 2465528 bytes, checksum: a6b61d82b21e105c35d728512b55b37e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02-25 / Fundação Araucária / This paper aims at discussing about water management in Paraná Basin 3 - BP3, whose focus is on the role of the BP3 Committee, management and conservation of water resources. The interdisciplinary dialogues presented here are guided in the environmental crisis on the perspective of modernity risks and the Science role; the right to an ecologically balanced environment and drinking water and; water management based on the Integrated Management of Water Resources, concerning the nowadays legal framework in Brazil and Paraná State. The overall purpose of this research is to study water resources management within the BP3, from the National Water Resources Policy of 1997 and the BP3 Committee. This is an exploratory study according to its goals, which is also classified as a case study. Data were obtained from questionnaires or semi-structured interviews with members of the BP3 Committee and the representative of the Basin Management BP3 (integrated into the Institute of Paraná waters), in 2014. Its results are analyzed and presented in accordance with the theoretical and methodological assumptions according to Bardin's content analysis (1995) and aim at contributing to further discussions regarding water resources management. In addition, this trial has instigated some reflections recommended by the Post-Graduation Program in Sustainable Rural Development (PPGDRS) at the Western Paraná State University (Unioeste), structured at the Concentration Area of Sustainable Rural Development / Este trabalho discorre sobre a gestão da água no território da Bacia Hidrográfica do Paraná 3 BP3, com enfoque no papel do Comitê da BP3, na gestão e conservação dos recursos hídricos. Os diálogos interdisciplinares aqui apresentados pautam-se na crise ambiental sobre a ótica dos riscos da modernidade e o papel da Ciência; o direito ao meio ambiente ecologicamente equilibrado e à água potável e; a gestão das águas pautada na Gestão Integrada dos Recursos Hídricos, sobre as perspectivas legais em vigor no Brasil e no Estado do Paraná. O objetivo geral desta pesquisa é estudar a gestão dos recursos hídricos no território da BP3, a partir da Política Nacional de Recursos Hídricos de 1997 e do Comitê da BP3. Este é um estudo exploratório de acordo com seus objetivos, classificado como um estudo de caso. Os dados foram obtidos a partir de questionários ou entrevistas semiestruturadas aos integrantes do Comitê da BP3 e ao representante da Gerência de Bacia da BP3 (integrado ao Instituto das Águas do Paraná), no ano de 2014. Os resultados deste trabalho são analisados e apresentados segundo os pressupostos teóricos e metodológicos da análise de conteúdo de Bardin (1995) e buscam contribuir para novas discussões sobre a gestão dos recursos hídricos. Além de instigar reflexões preconizadas pelo Programa de Pós-Graduação em Desenvolvimento Rural Sustentável (PPGDRS) da Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (Unioeste), enquadrado na Área de Concentração de Desenvolvimento Rural Sustentável

A strategic management of water is integral for any society aiming at moving towards sustainability. This thesis aims to provide a common understanding of how water management should be considered within sustainability constraints, using ‘backcasting’ from basic sustainability principles as a compass. With a common language, a constructive dialogue is then possible to unify all stakeholders to move together towards sustainability. To answer the research question “How can an interaction with water stakeholders be strategically developed to progress toward the service of water in a sustainable society”, a methodology based on Sustainability Life Cycle Assessment, the Template for Sustainable Product Development and Multi-Stakeholder Platforms has been utilised within one domestic and one industrial water user case study in Blekinge, Southern Sweden. In this locality, water is regarded as abundant in volume. Yet it was revealed that what is consumed by society is not water as such; but the purity of water. Within this context, opportunities to move towards sustainability have arisen and the case study organizations were able to utilise improvements in reporting and operations. Economic activity such as new infrastructure, pollutant trading schemes and product accreditation are amongst the many concepts identified as potential steps towards the service of water in a sustainable society.

Magister Scientiae (Integrated Water Resource Management) / The questions posed in this study address the different processes that were involved in the decision-making and establishment of the water management organisations, the extent of public participation, as well as features of evident governance in implementing the policies. A critical analysis of the role of stakeholders and the various influences they may have in water management will also be examined. The methodology follows a historical study approach. A thorough document review will be done of the policies and related materials around BMCs, where events will be constructed from the findings. Interviews will be conducted for verification purposes, to verify the desktop findings and to assimilate any conflicts of opinion that might have not been documented. / South Africa

This qualitative study, focussing on the way in which values and valuing processes might strengthen social learning in water stewardship practices in South Africa, is located within the broader global narrative that describes the scale of human impact on our Earth systems and that is setting humanity on a trajectory that threatens to place us beyond the safe operating spaces called planetary boundaries. For humanity to live within planetary boundaries – one of which is global freshwater use –will take a new way of relating to the environment called Earth stewardship, which calls for a new ethic of responsibility towards Earth systems. It is at the local level of stewardship within a global approach to water resources management called integrated water resources management that this qualitative study is contextually bound. Two case studies, located in the catchment management forums (CMFs) of the Upper Vaal catchment of Gauteng, South Africa, are used in an exploration of the way in which values and valuing processes might strengthen social learning in water stewardship practices in South Africa. The meta-theory of critical realism is used to help explore this relationship between values, practice and social learning. The study uses document analysis, interviews and observation of selected water stewardship practices to identify held and assigned values, and valuing processes and their influence on social learning, and the framing and de-framing processes that occur in social learning oriented towards water stewardship practices. The study differentiates between held and assigned values and identifies a strong altruistic-held values tendency that characterises forum participants who practice water stewardship in the two case study sites. Most water stewardship practice, identified in the case study sites, manifests as compliance activities in the public – or forum – space, while private-sphere environmentalism is mostly left to the confines of the individual’s private household. Lastly, the CMFs seem to have the potential to provide a space for social learning that is not yet maximised. Drawing from these key findings, the study’s major recommendation is that forums that facilitate learning, either using the current CMF structure or creating new opportunities, need to be provided as a conduit for social learning and reflexivity to make the existing boundaries between private and public forms of water stewardship more porous. This social learning may expand social practice and thus strengthen social change processes that expand water stewardship practices.

The connections between surface water and groundwater systems remain poorly understood in many catchments throughout the world and yet they are fundamental to effectively managing water resources. Managing water resources in an integrated manner is not straightforward, particularly if both resources are being utilised, and especially in those regions that suffer problems of data scarcity. This study explores some of the principle issues associated with understanding and practically modelling surface and groundwater interactions. In South Africa, there remains much controversy over the most appropriate type of integrated model to be used and the way forward in terms of the development of the discipline; part of the disagreement stems from the fact that we cannot validate models adequately. This is largely due to traditional forms of model testing having limited power as it is difficult to differentiate between the uncertainties within different model structures, different sets of alternative parameter values and in the input data used to run the model. While model structural uncertainties are important to consider, the uncertainty from input data error together with parameter estimation error are often more significant to the overall residual error, and essential to consider if we want to achieve reliable predictions for water resource decisions. While new philosophies and theories on modelling and results validation have been developed (Beven, 2002; Gupta et al., 2008), in many cases models are not only still being validated and compared using sparse and uncertain datasets, but also expected to produce reliable predictions based on the flawed data. The approach in this study is focused on fundamental understanding of hydrological systems rather than calibration based modelling and promotes the use of all the available 'hard' and 'soft' data together with thoughtful conceptual examination of the processes occurring in an environment to ensure as far as possible that a model is generating sensible results by simulating the correct processes. The first part of the thesis focuses on characterising the 'typical' interaction environments found in South Africa. It was found that many traditional perceptual models are not necessarily applicable to South African conditions, largely due to the relative importance of unsaturated zone processes and the complexity of the dominantly fractured rock environments. The interaction environments were categorised into four main 'types' of environment. These include karst, primary, fractured rock (secondary), and alluvial environments. Processes critical to Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) were defined within each interaction type as a guideline to setting a model up to realistically represent the dominant processes in the respective settings. The second part of the thesis addressed the application and evaluation of the modified Pitman model (Hughes, 2004), which allows for surface and groundwater interaction behaviour at the catchment scale to be simulated. The issue is whether, given the different sources of uncertainty in the modelling process, we can differentiate one conceptual flow path from another in trying to refine the understanding and consequently have more faith in model predictions. Seven example catchments were selected from around South Africa to assess whether reliable integrated assessments can be carried out given the existing data. Specific catchment perceptual models were used to identify the critical processes occurring in each setting and the Pitman model was assessed on whether it could represent them (structural uncertainty). The available knowledge of specific environments or catchments was then examined in an attempt to resolve the parameter uncertainty present within each catchment and ensure the subsequent model setup was correctly representing the process understanding as far as possible. The confidence in the quantitative results inevitably varied with the amount and quality of the data available. While the model was deemed to be robust based on the behavioural results obtained in the majority of the case studies, in many cases a quantitative validation of the outputs was just not possible based on the available data. In these cases, the model was judged on its ability to represent the conceptualisation of the processes occurring in the catchments. While the lack of appropriate data means there will always be considerable uncertainty surrounding model validation, it can be argued that improved process understanding in an environment can be used to validate model outcomes to a degree, by assessing whether a model is getting the right results for the right reasons. Many water resource decisions are still made without adequate account being taken of the uncertainties inherent in assessing the response of hydrological systems. Certainly, with all the possible sources of uncertainty in a data scarce country such as South Africa, pure calibration based modelling is unlikely to produce reliable information for water resource managers as it can produce the right results for the wrong reasons. Thus it becomes essential to incorporate conceptual thinking into the modelling process, so that at the very least we are able to conclude that a model generates estimates that are consistent with, and reflect, our understanding (however limited) of the catchment processes. It is fairly clear that achieving the optimum model of a hydrological system may be fraught with difficulty, if not impossible. This makes it very difficult from a practitioner's point of view to decide which model and uncertainty estimation method to use. According to Beven (2009), this may be a transitional problem and in the future it may become clearer as we learn more about how to estimate the uncertainties associated with hydrological systems. Until then, a better understanding of the fundamental and most critical hydrogeological processes should be used to critically test and improve model predictions as far as possible. A major focus of the study was to identify whether the modified Pitman model could provide a practical tool for water resource managers by reliably determining the available water resource. The incorporation of surface and groundwater interaction routines seems to have resulted in a more robust and realistic model of basin hydrology. The overall conclusion is that the model, although simplified, is capable of representing the catchment scale processes that occur under most South African conditions.

Internationally, water resources are facing increasing pressure due to over-exploitation and pollution. Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) has been accepted internationally as a paradigm for integrative and sustainable management of water resources. However, in practice, the implementation and success of IWRM policies has been hampered by the lack of availability of integrative decision support tools, especially within the context of limited resources and observed data. This is true for the Crocodile River Catchment (CRC), located within the Mpumalanga Province of South Africa. The catchment has been experiencing a decline in water quality as a result of the point source input of a cocktail of pollutants, which are discharged from industrial and municipal wastewater treatment plants, as well as diffuse source runoff and return flows from the extensive areas of irrigated agriculture and mining sites. The decline in water quality has profound implications for a range of stakeholders across the catchment including increased treatment costs and reduced crop yields. The combination of deteriorating water quality and the lack of understanding of the relationships between water quantity and quality for determining compliance/non-compliance in the CRC have resulted in collaboration between stakeholders, willing to work in a participatory and transparent manner to create an Integrated Water Quality Management Plan (IWQMP). This project aimed to model water quality, (combined water quality and quantity), to facilitate the IWQMP aiding in the understanding of the relationship between water quantity and quality in the CRC. A relatively simple water quality model (WQSAM) was used that receives inputs from established water quantity systems models, and was designed to be a water quality decision support tool for South African catchments. The model was applied to the CRC, achieving acceptable simulations of total dissolved solids (used as a surrogate for salinity) and nutrients (including orthophosphates, nitrates +nitrites and ammonium) for historical conditions. Validation results revealed that there is little consistency within the catchment, attributed to the non-stationary nature of water quality at many of the sites in the CRC. The analyses of the results using a number of representations including, seasonal load distributions, load duration curves and load flow plots, confirmed that the WQSAM model was able to capture the variability of relationships between water quantity and quality, provided that simulated hydrology was sufficiently accurate. The outputs produced by WQSAM was seen as useful for the CRC, with the Inkomati-Usuthu Catchment Management Agency (IUCMA) planning to operationalise the model in 2015. The ability of WQSAM to simulate water quality in data scarce catchments, with constituents that are appropriate for the needs of water resource management within South Africa, is highly beneficial.

The aim of the study emanates from the research question: Is the incorporation of the integrated water resource management (IWRM) approach in South Africa’s water policy, from a political point of view, appropriate? The IWRM approach, as applied to developing countries, originated in developed countries with predominantly homogeneous societies where there is a broad commitment to democratic principles, the free market system and individualism. Societies in developing countries do not necessarily share the same characteristics associated with those in developed countries. South Africa, classified as a developing country, has a multicultural society that reflects an income disparity and two major cultures, namely a modernised Western and a traditional African culture. As a result two subsidiary research questions follow: Can the commitment and impartiality of all the stakeholders that partake in the decision-making processes of water institutions at all levels be ensured? Is it possible to establish small, efficient and financially viable bureaucratic structures (water institutions) at the level of water management areas (WMA)? The study uses the public choice theory to assess the IWRM approach in selected developed and developing countries. The applicability of public choice concepts with reference to the differences between Western and African cultures are briefly alluded to. It also defines the IWRM approach and certain IWRM elements that have political implications for society at large. The study describes specific elements of the IWRM approach in France and Australia and the relative successes thereof in terms of the public choice theory. The implementation of the IWRM approach in Indochina and selective developing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are described to highlight certain institutional problems, inadequate financial resources, the lack of capacity and various cultural aspects that inhibit the efficiency and effectiveness of the IWRM approach. In the analysis of South Africa’s water policy, the study found that the multicultural nature of society, the unequal levels of economic development and the limited level of technological and scientific knowledge, will make it extremely difficult to implement the IWRM approach without contextualising it. According to the public choice theory, the net benefits of a policy for a society must outweigh the costs. If not, the policy needs to be either adjusted or abandoned. Since none of the proposed catchment management agencies (CMA) were established between 1998 and 2001, it is not possible to come to a verifiable conclusion. However, the study indicates that the opportunity costs of the IWRM approach are likely to outweigh the benefits for society. Other aspects that necessitate a re-evaluation of South Africa’s water policy are the holistic element of the IWRM approach and the demarcation of WMAs. The study identifies three options: The first option is to revert back to the riparian principle. The second option is to either revisit the concept of public participation, or to re-delineate the WMAs. The third and most favourable option is to abandon the concept of public participation. It would not only negate the need for CMAs (and indirectly WMAs), but would also greatly simplify the management of water resources. / Dissertation (M (Political and Policy Studies))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Political Sciences / unrestricted