Variações climáticas podem resultar na entrada insuficiente de água no balanço hídrico de uma região, acarretando em inconsistências relacionadas à outorga de água superficial. O sistema de outorga de água superficial utiliza as vazões percentis (Q7,10, Q90, Q95) para definir a vazão máxima outorgável. No entanto, em períodos de estiagem tais vazões de referência podem não ser suficientes para atender a demanda outorgada, demandando a captação de águas subterrâneas para contrabalançar essa insuficiência hídrica do manancial superficial. Portanto, a outorga dos recursos hídricos deve ocorrer de forma integrada e sustentável, considerando a alteração da descarga do aquífero para o rio devido à captação subterrânea. O objetivo deste trabalho é estimar a disponibilidade hídrica integrada (superficial e subterrânea), por meio de um modelo empírico linear, proposto como função da média móvel da precipitação de períodos anteriores relacionados ao tempo de regulação do aquífero. Técnicas de correlação e espectrais foram empregadas na análise de séries temporais de precipitação (P) e vazão (Q) da bacia hidrográfica do Ribeirão da Onça, com o objetivo de determinar os tempos de resposta de Q em relação a P. A metodologia proposta foi verificada para precipitação e vazões observadas na bacia com área de 65 km2 no período de 2003 a 2014. Os resultados indicam que o aquífero armazena uma parcela de água precipitada e controla o fluxo para o rio, com tempos de regulação de aproximadamente 60 dias para o escoamento subsuperficial e de aproximadamente 2 anos para o escoamento de base. A metodologia também foi testada para duas sub-bacias hidrográficas do Rio Jacaré-Guaçu, com áreas de 1867 e 3519 km2. A adoção da metodologia proposta permite calcular uma vazão de referência sustentável, possibilitando prever a variação da vazão de base nos períodos de recessão, por estar definida em função de precipitações passadas. Portanto, tal vazão seria mais condizente com as observadas no meio ambiente, proporcionando um adequado funcionamento do ecossistema, garantindo assim a sua preservação. / Climatic variation may result in insufficient input of water in the water balance in a region, resulting in inconsistencies in the water rights permits. Brazilian water allocation system uses the flow duration curves (Q7,10, Q90, Q95) to establish the maximum allowable discharge. However, during droughts such reference discharges may not reach the water rights permits, requiring groundwater extraction to compensate this deficiency in surface water bodies. Hence, the water right permits must be integral, considering the base flow variation due to the groundwater extraction. The aim of this study is to determine the integrated water availability (surface and groundwater), using an empirical linear model, proposed as a function of the average rainfall of previous periods related to the aquifer regulation time. Correlation and spectral techniques were employed for time-series analysis of precipitation (P) and discharge (Q) in the Ribeirão da Onça watershed, to determine response times of Q as a function of P. The proposed methodology was developed for precipitation and discharge observed from 2003 to 2014 in a watershed with an area of 65 km2. The obtained results indicate that the aquifer stores the rainfall water with regulation times of approximately 60 days for the subsurface flow, ans approximately 2 years for the base flow. The methodology was also tested for two sub-basins of the Jacaré-Guaçú River watershed, with areas of 1867 and 3519 km2.The proposed methodology allows the estimation of a sustainable reference discharge making it possible to predict the base flow variation during recession periods, since it is defined as a function of past rainfall. Therefore, this discharge is more consistent with the values observed in the environment, allowing a proper functioning of the ecosystem, thereby ensuring their preservation.

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / In this thesis I examine and explore whether and if Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) inspired water reforms respond to- and address the diverse realities of women and men in informal (and formal) rural economies of Sekororo, South Africa and Ward 17 in Gwanda, Zimbabwe which are both in the Limpopo basin. South Africa and Zimbabwe, like other southern African countries, embarked on IWRM inspired water reforms, culminating in the promulgation of the National Water Acts in 1998, four years after the attainment of South Africa's democracy in 1994 and 18 years after Zimbabwe attained independence in 1980. I argue that the adoption of IWRM, which emphasises second generation water issues such as demand management, water quality, environmental flow requirements etc, and not the development of water infrastructure, begs the question whether such reforms can make a meaningful contribution to the development agenda in countries where, during apartheid and colonialism, the water rights (among other rights) of millions of blacks were compromised because of unjust legislation and skewed underinvestment in water infrastructure. / South Africa

L’eau souterraine représente 98% de la ressource en eau douce liquide sur Terre. Vitale, avantageuse par ses propriétés spéciales mais, souvent, particulièrement vulnérable à long terme, face aux dégradations continues générées par l’ère anthropocène, elle devrait faire l’objet d’une réglementation exprimant toute la signification du « niveau élevé de protection de l’environnement » requis en droit primaire de l’Union européenne. C’est pourquoi la gestion intégrée des ressources en eau (GIRE) pratiquée par l’UE devrait tendre, pour cette eau, vers un degré supérieur de préservation d’un milieu hypogé singulièrement fragile, via une distinction plus marquée entre les notions de «gestion» et de «protection» intégrées, selon l’intensité de la préservation qu’elles emporteraient. A travers cette évolution de la gestion vers la protection intégrée, que l’on érigerait en mode d’intervention à part entière, le droit de l’UE définirait une nouvelle balance entre intérêts économiques et nécessités environnementales. Un tel renforcement du droit dérivé pertinent passerait avant tout par une conception rénovée des eaux souterraines, affranchie d’une conception trop sommaire, dans la directive-cadre sur l’eau et la directive 2006/118/CE, pour en appréhender toute la richesse. Ce, sous peine de ne les protéger que partiellement. Sans préjudice de l’unité du droit de l’eau, des aménagements spécifiques devraient ainsi être prévus pour les eaux souterraines, dont les dynamiques peuvent grandement différer, dans le temps et l’espace, de la surface. Les eaux souterraines ne pouvant être séparées de leur réceptacle (sol et sous-sol), leur protection intégrée requerrait en outre de transcender les limites de la politique de l’eau, et d’aller au-delà de l’intégration telle qu’on la connaissait dans le cadre de la GIRE. Cette dernière, en effet, n’efface pas toutes les contradictions entre politiques sectorielles. Aussi faudrait-il poursuivre la mise en cohérence desdites politiques concernées (environnementale, agricole, industrielle, énergétique…), dont la convergence devrait être accrue dans le sens d’une protection globale du milieu souterrain – une protection affermie pour laquelle pourraient se mobiliser l’ensemble des acteurs intéressés, s’ils étaient orientés vers cet objectif par des dispositifs plus appropriés. / Because groundwater, which represents 98% of the liquid freshwater on Earth, is vital, of particular benefit due to its special properties, but, often, especially vulnerable, in the long term, to the unceasing degra-dation caused by the anthropogenic era, it should be the subject of a regulation that would express the whole meaning of the “high level of protection of the environment” required in the European Union primary law. The integrated management of water resources management (IWRM) implemented by the EU should therefore, for this water, strive for a higher stage of preservation of a singularly fragile underground environment, through a sharper distinction between the concepts of integrated “management” and “protection”, according to the intensity of preservation they would respectively imply. Via such an evolution from integrated management to protection, the latter becoming an autonomous framework of action, the EU law would adopt a different position on the balance between economic interests and ecological necessities. This strengthening of the relevant secondary law must rest on, first and foremost, a new apprehension of groundwater, in the water framework directive and the directive 2006/118/EC, beyond a conception too perfunctory to comprehend the richness of it, otherwise it won’t be fully protected. So, without prejudice to the unity of water law, specific adjustments should be provided for, concerning ground waters, insofar as their dynamics may significantly differ, in time and space, from those of surface water. Since ground waters can’t be separated from its receptacle (soil and subsoil), its integrated protection would demand in addition to transcend the borders of the sectoral water policy and to go beyond the integration as we know it in the current IWRM, which doesn’t erase contradictions between sectoral policies. Thus has to be carried on the improvement of the coherence between relevant politics (environment, agriculture, industry, energy…), in order to build a complete protection of the underground environment. A new framework where would be mobilized all involved actors, converging towards this purpose thanks to more appropriate mechanisms.

Facing the urgency of taking actions to guarantee the water supply to Brazil's Capital, the project called IWAS/ÁguaDF aims to provide scientific knowledge for the development of an Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) concept. The project is organized in multiple working groups wherein climate is considered as one of the main drivers. The water supply system of Distrito Federal (DF) is mainly dependent on three major complexes: river basins, waste water and drinking water. Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to affect these water complexes in a number of ways such as by losing storage capacity due to erosion and sedimentation, through altered persistency of dry events and due to increasing water demand. As a contribution to the IWAS/ÁguaDF project, this study focuses on the development of climate change projections for hydrological impact assessments at local/regional scale. The development of proper climate information is a challenging task. The level of complexity corresponds directly to the issues that concern impact modellers as well as technical aspects such as available observational data, human and computational resources. The identification of the needs for water-related issues gives the foundation for deriving proper climate projections. Before making projections, it is necessary to assess the current climate conditions, or baseline climate. Despite a better understanding of the regional aspects of the climate and the ongoing changes, the baseline climate provides the foundation for calibrating and validating climate models and downscaling methods. The General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the most preferred tools in simulating the response of the climate system to anthropogenic activities, like increasing greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions. However, the climate information required for regional impact studies, such as water resources management in DF, is of a spatial scale much finer than that provided by GCMs and therefore often demands a downscaling procedure. Hydrological models are usually sensitive to the temporal variability of precipitation at scales that are not well represented by GCMs. Statistical downscaling methods have the potential to bridge the mismatch between GCMs and impact models by adding local variability that is consistent with both the large-scale signal and local observations. The tool used (i.e., Statistical DownScaling Model - SDSM) is described as a hybrid of regression-based and stochastic weather generator. The systematic calibration adopted provides the appropriated predictors and model parameterization. The validation procedure takes into account the metrics relevant to the requirements of hydrological studies. Moreover, the downscaling approach considers several climate models (i.e., 18 GCMs) and emission scenarios (i.e., SRES A1B, A2, B1) in order to sample the widest sources of uncertainties available. In spite of the elevated level of uncertainties in the magnitude of change, most of the downscaled projections agree with positive changes in temperature and precipitation for the period of 2046-2065 when compared to the reference period (i.e., 1980-1999). Large ensembles are preferable but are often associated with massive amount of data which have limited application in hydrological impact studies. An alternative is to identify subsets of projections that are most likely and projections that have lower likelihood but higher impact. A set of representative climate projections is suggested for hydrological impact assessments. Although high resolution information is preferable, it relies on limited assumptions inherent to observations and coarse-resolution projections and, therefore, its use alone is not recommended. The combination of the baseline climate with large- and local-scale projections achieved in this study provides a wide envelope of climate information for assessing the sensitivity of hydrological systems in DF. A better understanding of the vulnerability of hydrological systems through the application of multiple sources of climate information and appropriate sampling of known uncertainties is perhaps the best way to contribute to the development of robust adaptation strategies. / Starkes Bevölkerungswachstum sowie Landnutzungs- und Klimawandel gefährden die Wasserversorgung der Metropolregion Brasília. Vor diesem Hintergrund soll das Projekt IWAS/ÁguaDF die wissenschaftlichen Grundlagen für ein Integriertes Wasserressourcen-Management (IWRM) im Distrito Federal (DF) erarbeiten. Das Projekt gliedert sich in drei klimasensitive Bereiche: Einzugsgebietsmanagement, Abwasseraufbereitung und Trinkwasserversorgung. Klimaänderungen können die Wasserversorgung im DF vielfältig beeinflussen, durch Veränderung der speicherbaren Wassermenge (Wasserdargebot, Speicherkapazität von Talsperren durch Sedimentation), der Dauer von Dürreperioden und des Wasserbedarfs (z.B. für Bewässerung). Klimaprojektionen für regionale hydrologische Impaktstudien stellen jedoch eine große Heraus-forderung dar. Ihre Komplexität richtet sich nach dem Bedarf des Impaktmodellierers und hängt zudem von technischen Voraussetzungen ab, wie der Verfügbarkeit von Beobachtungsdaten sowie von Personal- und Rechenressourcen. Die Ableitung geeigneter Maßnahmen für ein nachhaltiges Wasserressourcenmanagement im DF stellt hohe Ansprüche an die Qualität der zu entwickelnden Klimaprojektionen. Noch vor der Projektion müssen die gegenwärtigen klimatischen Bedingungen (Referenzklima) analysiert und bewertet werden. Die Analyse des Referenzklimas ermöglicht ein besseres Verständnis regionaler Unterschiede und aktueller Tendenzen und bildet die Grundlage für die Kalibrierung und Validierung von Klimamodellen und Downscaling-Methoden. Globale Klimamodelle (GCM) simulieren die Reaktion des Klimasystems auf anthropogene Treibhausgas- und Aerosolemissionen. Ihre räumliche Auflösung ist jedoch meist zu grob für regionale Klimaimpaktstudien. Zudem reagieren hydrologische Modelle meist sehr sensitiv auf zeitlich variable Niederschläge, welche in hoher zeitlicher Auflösung (Tagesschritte) ebenfalls nur unzureichend in GCM abgebildet werden. Statistische Downscaling-Verfahren können diese Inkohärenz zwischen GCM und Impaktmodellen reduzieren, indem sie das projizierte Klimasignal um lokale Variabilität (konsistent gegenüber den Beobachtungen) erweitern. Das in der vorliegenden Arbeit verwendete Tool, Statistical DownScaling Model - SDSM, vereint regressionsbasierte und stochastische Methoden der Wettergenerierung. Geeignete Prädiktoren und Modelparameter wurden durch systematische Kalibrierung bestimmt und anschließend validiert, wobei unter anderem auch hydrologisch relevante Gütekriterien verwendet wurden. Der gewählte Downscaling-Ansatz berücksichtigt zudem eine Vielzahl verschiedener Globalmodelle (18 GCM) und Emissionsszenarien (SRES A1B, A2 und B1) um die mit Klimaprojektionen verbundene hohe Unsicherheit möglichst breit abzudecken. Die Mehrheit der regionalen Projektionen weist auf eine Zunahme von Temperatur und Niederschlag hin (Zeitraum 2046 bis 2065 gegenüber Referenz-zeitraum, 1980 bis 1999), wenngleich die Stärke des Änderungssignals stark über das Ensemble variiert. Große Modellensemble sind zwar von Vorteil, sie sind jedoch auch mit einer erheblichen Datenmenge verbunden, welche für hydrologische Impaktstudien nur begrenzt nutzbar ist. Alternativ können einzelne „wahrscheinliche“ Projektionen verwendet werden sowie Projektionen, die weniger wahrscheinlich, aber mit einem starken Impakt verbunden sind. Ein solcher Satz repräsentativer Klimaprojektionen wurde für weitergehende Impaktstudien ausgewählt. Auch wenn in der Regel hochaufgelöste Klimaprojektionen angestrebt werden, ihr alleiniger Einsatz in Impaktstudien ist nicht zu empfehlen, aufgrund der vereinfachten Annahmen über die statistische Beziehung zwischen Beobachtungsdaten und den Modellergebnissen grob aufgelöster Globalmodelle. Der Vergleich des Referenzklimas mit großräumigen und lokalen Projektionen, wie er in dieser Arbeit durchgeführt wurde, liefert ein breites Spektrum an Klimainformationen zur Bewertung der Vulnerabilität hydrologischer Systeme im DF. Die Einbeziehung einer Vielzahl vorhandener Klimamodelle und die gezielte, den ermittelten Unsicherheitsbereich vollständig abdeckende Auswahl an Projektionen sollte die Entwicklung robuster Anpassungsstrategien bestmöglich unterstützen. / Diante do desafio de garantir o abastecimento de água potável da capital federal do Brasil, o projeto denominado IWAS/ÁguaDF tem como objetivo prover conhecimento científico para o desenvolvimento de um conceito de Gestão Integrada dos Recursos Hídricos (PGIRH). Afim de atingir esta proposta, o projeto é organizado em multiplos grupos de trabalho entre os quais o clima é considerado um dos principais fatores de influência. O sistema de abastecimento de água do Distrito Federal (DF) depende praticamente de três complexos: bacias hidrográficas, águas residuais e água potável. Mudanças climáticas causadas por ações antropogênicas apresentam um enorme potencial de impacto a estes complexos, por exemplo através de alterações no regime de chuvas, perda de volume dos reservatórios por assoriamento e aumento na demanda de água. Como contribuição ao projeto IWAS/ÁguaDF, este estudo tem como foco o desenvolvimento de projeções de mudanças climáticas para estudo de impacto nos recursos hídricos na escala local/regional. O nível de complexidade corresponde diretamente às questões levantadas pelos modeladores de impacto, bem como aspecto técnicos como a disponibilidade de dados observados e recursos humanos e computacionais. A identificação das necessidades de questões relacionadas à água no DF dão a base para derivar projeções climáticas adequadas. Antes de qualquer projeção futura, é indispensável avaliar as condições atuais do clima, também chamado de linha de base do clima. Além de fornecer a compreenção dos aspectos regionais do clima e mudaças em curso, a linha de base provê dados para a calibração e validação de modelos globais de clima e técnicas de regionalização (downscaling). Os Modelos de Circulação Geral (GCM) são as ferramentas mais adotadas na simulação da resposta do sistema climático às atividades antropogênicas, tais como aumento de emissões de gases do efeito estufa e aerosóis. No entanto, a informação necessária para estudos regionais de impacto, tais como gestão de recursos hídricos, é de escala espacial mais refinada do que a resolução espacial fornecida pelos GCMs e, dessa forma, técnicas de regionalização são frequentemente demandadas. Modelos hidrológicos são geralmente sensitivos à variabilidade temporal de precipitação em escalas não representadas pelos modelos globais. Métodos estatísticos de ‘downscaling’ apresentam um potencial para auxiliar no descompasso entre GCMs e modelos de impacto através da adição de variabilidade local consistente com o sinal de larga escala e as observações locais. A ferramenta utilizada (Statistical DownScaling Model - SDSM) é descrita como um híbrido entre regressão linear e gerador de tempo estocástico. A calibração sistemática adotada fornece apropriados preditores e uma parameterização consistente. O procedimento de validação do modelo leva em conta as métricas relevantes aos requerimentos dos estudos hidrológicos. Ainda, a abordagem aqui utilizada considera diversos modelos globais (isto é, 18 GCMs) e cenários de emissões (isto é, SRES A1B, A2 e B1) afim de contemplar as mais abrangentes fontes de incertezas disponíveis. Embora o elevado nível de incertezas na magnitude das mudançãs de clima, a grande maioria das projeções regionalizadas concordam com o aumento de temperatura e precipiatação para o período de 2046-2065 quando comparado com o período de referência (isto é, 1980-1999). Grandes conjuntos de projeções são preferíveis, mas são frequentement associados com uma quantidade exorbitante de dados os quais são de aplicação limiatada nos estudos de impacto. Uma alternativa é identificar sub-conjuntos de projeções que são as mais prováveis e projeções que são menos prováveis, porém apresentam maior impacto. Embora altas resoluções são preferíveis, estas baseiam-se em hipóteses inerentes às observações e projeções de larga escala e, dessa forma, não é recomendável o seu uso sozinho. A combinação do clima de base com projeções de resoluções baixas e altas fornece um amplo envelope de imformações climáticas para avaliar a sensitividade dos sistemas hidrológicos no DF. Um compreendimento mais apurado da vunerabilidade dos sistemas hidrológicos através da aplicação de multiplas fontes de informação e apropriada abordagem das incertezas conhecidas é talvez a melhor maneira para contribuir para o desenvolvimento de estratégias robustas de adaptação.

L’objet de la thèse est d’évaluer la pertinence de l’approche participative comme outil-levier pour une gestion locale mieux partagée et durable des ressources en eau autour du lac de Guiers au Sénégal. Unique lac d’eau douce d’importance du pays, implanté dans une zone semi-désertique de la région écologique sahélienne, le lac de Guiers est très convoité par plusieurs types d’usages. Il est considéré, au plan national comme au plan local, comme une source vitale d’approvisionnement en eau potable des régions proches et de grandes villes une ressource stratégique pour le maintien de l’autosuffisance alimentaire ainsi qu’un moteur de développement économique pour les communautés villageoises agro-pastorales. La démarche méthodologique retenue est de type « bottom-up », partant du diagnostic de terrain du cas du lac de Guiers. Elle s’appuie sur des entretiens et enquêtes par questionnaires auprès des gestionnaires et des usagers de l’eau du lac, une analyse des jeux d’acteurs dans un cadre institutionnel en évolution et l’analyse des dynamiques spatiales de répartition des usages de l’eau. Ce diagnostic montre dans quelle mesure l’approche participative prônée dans les stratégies et plans de gestion de l’eau du lac de Guiers est effectivement mise en œuvre et vient renforcer la participation des usagers de la ressource en eau pour parvenir à une gestion mieux partagée et durable de celle-ci. L’approche participative n'est fonctionnelle que si le cadre de gestion s’inscrit dans une démarche globale de gestion concertée et intégrée dans laquelle tous les usagers et les acteurs gestionnaires sont co-gestionnaires de la démarche.De plus, l’approche participative reste souvent difficile à organiser. Cette difficulté est d’autant plus forte que l’étendue géographique est grande, et qu’il s’agit de faire participer tous les usagers et acteurs gestionnaires concernés à toutes les échelles avec des intérêts parfois contradictoires. Par ailleurs, la thèse révèle que l’accroissement de l’implantation d’activités économiques sensées profiter à la région conduit à des effets pervers qui vont à l’encontre des objectifs des plans de gestion : baisse de la qualité de l’eau et des quantités disponibles (pollution causée par les rejets des agro-industries et augmentation des volumes de prélèvement).Toutes les séries d’actions engagées constituent des dépenses pour les acteurs gestionnaires (maintenance des infrastructures, contrôle des prélèvements, lutte contre la pollution etc.). Dans ce domaine, la thèse recommande que la gestion de la ressource en eau du lac prenne en compte cette dimension déterminante, en développant de nouveaux outils de gestion correspondant à la valorisation économique de l’eau et en créant un Observatoire, outil intégrateur de son avenir durable. Ceci est une condition sine qua non pour une amélioration des conditions de vie des riverains. La thèse confirme, à travers le cas du lac de Guiers, la pertinence des théories de l’approche participative pour accompagner et aider ses acteurs gestionnaires dans leur appréhension et leur organisation du système de gestion. / The aim of the thesis is to evaluate the relevance of the participatory approach as a leverage tool to achieve a better shared and sustainable local management of water resources around lake Guiers in Senegal. It is the only freshwater lake of importance in the country. Located in a semi-desert zone of the Sahelian ecological region, lake Guiers is coveted by several types of uses. It is considered both nationally and locally as a vital resource for drinking water supply in nearby regions and large cities as a strategic resource for maintaining food self-sufficiency, as well as being a vector of economic development of the agro-pastoral village communities.The methodological approach adopted is the "bottom-up" approach, starting from field diagnosis of the case of lake Guiers. It is based on interviews and questionnaire surveys with managers and users of the lake’s water, an analysis of the sets of actors in an evolving institutional framework and the analysis of the spatial dynamics of distribution of the uses of the lake’s water. This diagnosis demonstrates the extent to which the participatory approach advocated in the water management strategies and plans of lake Guiers is effectively implemented and strengthens the participation of water resource users in order to achieve a better shared and sustainable management of this water resource.The participatory approach is functional only if the management framework is part of a comprehensive, collaborative and integrated management approach in which all users and managers are involved in the decision-making process (co-management). Furthermore, the participatory approach is often difficult to organize. This difficulty increases when the geographical scope is large and the aim is to involve all the users and managers concerned at all levels with sometimes contradictory interests. Moreover, the thesis reveals that the increase in the implantation of economic activities that are supposed to benefit the region leads to perverse effects that run counter to the objectives of the management plans: a drop in water quality and of the available quantities (pollution caused by discharges from agro-industries and increased collection volumes). All the series of actions (services) involved imply expenditures for the management actors (maintenance of infrastructures, control of sampling, pollution control etc.). In this area, the thesis recommends that the management of water resources in the lake should take into account this decisive dimension, by developing new management tools corresponding to the economic valuation of water and by creating an observatory, an integrating tool of its sustainable future. This is a sine qua non condition for improving the living conditions of local residents. The thesis confirms, through the case of Lake Guiers, the relevance of the theories of the participatory approach to accompany and help its management actors in their apprehension and organization of the management system.

Botswana is a water scarce country. Rainfall is highly variable, leading to limited surface and groundwater resources. Due to persistently dry conditions most rivers found in Botswana are ephemeral. The Boteti River sub-Basin is one of the numerous ephemeral river sub-Basins, in Botswana. Key environmental challenges, resulting from human activities, in the sub-Basin are: increased pressure on local resources due to overstocking, overgrazing and over-harvesting; reductions in wildlife numbers; denudation of vegetation and the resultant exposure of the soil to wind erosion. As a major step, to pilot implementation of river basin management in the ephemeral river basins in southern Africa, the Boteti River sub-Basin is one of the key areas identified for study under the Ephemeral River Basins in the Southern African Development Community SADC (ERBSADC) Project. This study was initiated, as part of the ERB-SADC project and its aim is to investigate the socio-economic status of the Boteti River sub-Basin and determine the potential for developing integrated management of water and land resources in the sub- Basin. Its key objectives are to identify and assess types and patterns of water use; to identify and assess key livelihood activities; and to critically assess community participation in water resources management in the sub-Basin. A questionnaire was administered to 293 households, a focus group discussion was held with twelve community representatives of six villages in the sub-Basin, six traditional leaders and five local government officers were interviewed as key informants, and informal discussions were held with three local farmers. Results from the study indicate low livelihood levels based on livestock and arable agriculture, high dependence on natural resources and low participation of communities in water management. The study concludes that a livelihood approach to integrated water resources management can help deal with environmental challenges and enhance community participation. / Environmental Sciences / Thesis (M.A. (Environmental Science))

Botswana is a water scarce country. Rainfall is highly variable, leading to limited surface and groundwater resources. Due to persistently dry conditions most rivers found in Botswana are ephemeral. The Boteti River sub-Basin is one of the numerous ephemeral river sub-Basins, in Botswana. Key environmental challenges, resulting from human activities, in the sub-Basin are: increased pressure on local resources due to overstocking, overgrazing and over-harvesting; reductions in wildlife numbers; denudation of vegetation and the resultant exposure of the soil to wind erosion. As a major step, to pilot implementation of river basin management in the ephemeral river basins in southern Africa, the Boteti River sub-Basin is one of the key areas identified for study under the Ephemeral River Basins in the Southern African Development Community SADC (ERBSADC) Project. This study was initiated, as part of the ERB-SADC project and its aim is to investigate the socio-economic status of the Boteti River sub-Basin and determine the potential for developing integrated management of water and land resources in the sub- Basin. Its key objectives are to identify and assess types and patterns of water use; to identify and assess key livelihood activities; and to critically assess community participation in water resources management in the sub-Basin. A questionnaire was administered to 293 households, a focus group discussion was held with twelve community representatives of six villages in the sub-Basin, six traditional leaders and five local government officers were interviewed as key informants, and informal discussions were held with three local farmers. Results from the study indicate low livelihood levels based on livestock and arable agriculture, high dependence on natural resources and low participation of communities in water management. The study concludes that a livelihood approach to integrated water resources management can help deal with environmental challenges and enhance community participation. / Environmental Sciences / Thesis (M.A. (Environmental Science))

Water quantity, availability and, particularly, quality of Brazilian freshwater is under progessive degradation due to Anthropocene\'s environmental changing conditions. Strategies of Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) are essential to mitigate these impacts. This Ph.D. thesis proposes a new model of water resources management, thereby integrating selfpurification and ecohydrologic processes to evaluate ecosystem services from watershed under change. In Chapter 2, this thesis examinates the payment for hydrologic cosystem services (Water-PES) in Brazilian Atlantic Forest and points ecohydrologic variables useful for assessing and further valuing hydrologic services. In Chapter 3, this thesis discusses proposals for freshwater monitoring plan which integrate quali-quantitative aspects for EbA and Water-PES projects. Therefore, in Chapter 4 experimental quali-quantative freshwater data from in-situ field observations are investigated according land-use/land-cover (LULC) in headwaters of water supply systems. In Chapter 5, through simulated impacts on freshwater yield from scenarios of LULC change, the grey water footprint (greyWF) is assessed, as well as environmental sustainability of sub-basins is depicted from a new ecohydrologic index for assessing hydrologic services. The methodology is performed using through field sampling and lab-analysing of physico-chemical, biologic and hydraulic variables in nested sub-basins draining to the Cantareira Water Supply System, in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais states, Brazil. These areas participate in the Water-PES projects Water Producer/PCJ and Water Conservator at headwaters of Piracicaba watershed, during recent severe drought conditions between years 2013-15. The greyWF is estimated from outputs of time series simulated through ecohydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Under assumption of continuity of Water-PES projects, and using the same series of hydrometorological records for a common period (2008-2014), freshwater quali-quantitative impacts are performed through three LULC scenarios: past situation \"S1\" (year 1990), current situation \"S2\" (year 2010) and future situation \"S2+EbA\" (year 2035). From these scenarios, flow and load duration curves, mean water yields, greyWF and seasonal variabilities, were simulated. Through this research, continuous-monitoring Data Collecting Stations were installed in public-private partnership encompassing EESC/USP, ANA, CPRM, CEMADEN, SMA, TNC, WWF and local mayors. This continuous monitoring is addressed to increase the system resilience, based on better decision-making for water security, in strategic headwaters not only for water supply, but also for environmental conservation. This doctoral thesis brings contributions to a better comprehension of anthropic impacts on water resources and for strategies of EbA in front of progressive rates of losses of ecosystem services. This PhD. thesis was part of three research initiatives which partly granted activities: (1) Thematic Project FAPESP 2008/58161-1 \"Assessment of Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change in Brazil and Strategies for Adaptation Options\"; (2) \"INCLINE - INterdisciplinary CLimate INvEstigation Center\" (NapMC/USP Núcleo de Apoio às Pesquisas em Mudanças Climáticas) and (3) \"Água Brasil\" Project, Banco do Brasil Foundation, WWF Brazil, ANA & FIPAI/EESC-USP. / A quantidade, a disponibilidade e, em particular, a qualidade da água doce está em degradação progressiva devido às mudanças ambientais no Antropoceno. Estratégias de adaptação baseadas em ecossistemas (EbA) são essenciais para reduzir estes impactos. Propõe-se um novo modelo de gerenciamento de recursos hídricos que integre a pegada hídrica cinza e processos ecohidrológicos para avaliação dos serviços hidrológicos em bacias hidrográficas sob mudanças. As etapas da pesquisa são: Capítulo 2 – análise dos projetos de pagamentos por serviços ambientais de proteção às bacias hidrográficas na Mata Atlântica brasileira e, no contexto de EbA, indicação de variáveis ecohidrológicas úteis na quantificação e futura valoração dos serviços hidrológicos; Capítulo 3 – desenvolvimento de plano de monitoramento ecohidrológico que integra aspectos qualitativos e quantitativos dos recursos hídricos para projetos de EbA; Capítulo 4 – provisão de dados experimentais de qualidade e quantidade da água, além de observações in-situ, para investigação das influências das mudanças de uso e ocupação do solo nas cabeceiras de mananciais, estratégicos para o abastecimento público e a conservação ambiental; Capítulo 5 – estimativas da pegada hídrica cinza para nitrato, fósforo total e sedimentos a partir do monitoramento de variáveis quali-quantitativas em bacias com diferentes condições de uso e ocupação de solo. Foi realizada a instalação de três Plataformas de Coleta de Dados, por meio de parceria entre EESC, ANA, CPRM, CEMADEN, SMA, TNC e WWF, visando aumentar a resiliência do sistema, decorrente de futuro aprimoramento da gestão, para a segurança hídrica. A metodologia incluiu coletas em seis diferentes períodos, durante dois anos, e análises das variáveis condutividade elétrica, cor, DQO, DBO5,20, nitrato, nitrito, nitrogênio amoniacal, fosfato, pH, turbidez, sólidos totais, coliformes termotolerantes, Escherichia coli, medidas de vazões e velocidades médias em seções transversais. O método foi aplicado em microbacias participantes dos projetos Produtor de Água/PCJ e Conservador das Águas, dentre outras, com áreas de drenagem entre 7 e 1.000 km2, que contribuem para a bacia do rio Piracicaba (12.530 km2). Dados primários, medidos em recente período de severa estiagem no Sistema Cantareira (2013-14), foram integrados aos bancos de dados de órgãos gestores federais e estaduais. A produção de água foi maior em sub-bacias menos florestadas. Foi possível aprimorar a regionalização de cargas poluidoras por área de drenagem na região do Cantareira. A pegada hídrica cinza (WF) foi estimada a partir de simulações no modelo ecohidrológico Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Curvas de permanência de vazões e carga poluidora por área de drenagem foram elaboradas. Supondo-se a continuidade dos projetos \"Produtor de Água/PCJ\" e \"Conservador das Águas\", foram investigados os impactos de cenário futuro de uso do solo. Finalmente, foi desenvolvido novo índice ecohidrológico para quantificação dos serviços hidrológicos e avaliação a sustentabilidade das sub-bacias, a partir da pegada hídrica cinza composta. Assim, usando ferramentas de vanguarda tecnológica (SWAT e WF), a tese fornece subsídios para uma melhor compreensão dos impactos antropogênicos sobre os recursos hídricos e novas estratégias de adaptação baseada em ecossistemas, frente às progressivas taxas de perda de serviços ambientais. Esta tese esteve vinculada a três projetos de pesquisa, dos quais obteve apoio financeiro: (1) Projeto Temático FAPESP 2008/58161-1 \"Assessment of Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change in Brazil & Strategies for Adaptation Options\"; (2) \"INCLINE - INterdisciplinary CLimate INvEstigation Center\" (NapMC/USP) e (3) Projeto \"Água Brasil\", Fundação Banco do Brasil, WWF Brasil, ANA e FIPAI/EESC-USP.

Water quantity, availability and, particularly, quality of Brazilian freshwater is under progessive degradation due to Anthropocene\'s environmental changing conditions. Strategies of Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) are essential to mitigate these impacts. This Ph.D. thesis proposes a new model of water resources management, thereby integrating selfpurification and ecohydrologic processes to evaluate ecosystem services from watershed under change. In Chapter 2, this thesis examinates the payment for hydrologic cosystem services (Water-PES) in Brazilian Atlantic Forest and points ecohydrologic variables useful for assessing and further valuing hydrologic services. In Chapter 3, this thesis discusses proposals for freshwater monitoring plan which integrate quali-quantitative aspects for EbA and Water-PES projects. Therefore, in Chapter 4 experimental quali-quantative freshwater data from in-situ field observations are investigated according land-use/land-cover (LULC) in headwaters of water supply systems. In Chapter 5, through simulated impacts on freshwater yield from scenarios of LULC change, the grey water footprint (greyWF) is assessed, as well as environmental sustainability of sub-basins is depicted from a new ecohydrologic index for assessing hydrologic services. The methodology is performed using through field sampling and lab-analysing of physico-chemical, biologic and hydraulic variables in nested sub-basins draining to the Cantareira Water Supply System, in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais states, Brazil. These areas participate in the Water-PES projects Water Producer/PCJ and Water Conservator at headwaters of Piracicaba watershed, during recent severe drought conditions between years 2013-15. The greyWF is estimated from outputs of time series simulated through ecohydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Under assumption of continuity of Water-PES projects, and using the same series of hydrometorological records for a common period (2008-2014), freshwater quali-quantitative impacts are performed through three LULC scenarios: past situation \"S1\" (year 1990), current situation \"S2\" (year 2010) and future situation \"S2+EbA\" (year 2035). From these scenarios, flow and load duration curves, mean water yields, greyWF and seasonal variabilities, were simulated. Through this research, continuous-monitoring Data Collecting Stations were installed in public-private partnership encompassing EESC/USP, ANA, CPRM, CEMADEN, SMA, TNC, WWF and local mayors. This continuous monitoring is addressed to increase the system resilience, based on better decision-making for water security, in strategic headwaters not only for water supply, but also for environmental conservation. This doctoral thesis brings contributions to a better comprehension of anthropic impacts on water resources and for strategies of EbA in front of progressive rates of losses of ecosystem services. This PhD. thesis was part of three research initiatives which partly granted activities: (1) Thematic Project FAPESP 2008/58161-1 \"Assessment of Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change in Brazil and Strategies for Adaptation Options\"; (2) \"INCLINE - INterdisciplinary CLimate INvEstigation Center\" (NapMC/USP Núcleo de Apoio às Pesquisas em Mudanças Climáticas) and (3) \"Água Brasil\" Project, Banco do Brasil Foundation, WWF Brazil, ANA & FIPAI/EESC-USP. / A quantidade, a disponibilidade e, em particular, a qualidade da água doce está em degradação progressiva devido às mudanças ambientais no Antropoceno. Estratégias de adaptação baseadas em ecossistemas (EbA) são essenciais para reduzir estes impactos. Propõe-se um novo modelo de gerenciamento de recursos hídricos que integre a pegada hídrica cinza e processos ecohidrológicos para avaliação dos serviços hidrológicos em bacias hidrográficas sob mudanças. As etapas da pesquisa são: Capítulo 2 – análise dos projetos de pagamentos por serviços ambientais de proteção às bacias hidrográficas na Mata Atlântica brasileira e, no contexto de EbA, indicação de variáveis ecohidrológicas úteis na quantificação e futura valoração dos serviços hidrológicos; Capítulo 3 – desenvolvimento de plano de monitoramento ecohidrológico que integra aspectos qualitativos e quantitativos dos recursos hídricos para projetos de EbA; Capítulo 4 – provisão de dados experimentais de qualidade e quantidade da água, além de observações in-situ, para investigação das influências das mudanças de uso e ocupação do solo nas cabeceiras de mananciais, estratégicos para o abastecimento público e a conservação ambiental; Capítulo 5 – estimativas da pegada hídrica cinza para nitrato, fósforo total e sedimentos a partir do monitoramento de variáveis quali-quantitativas em bacias com diferentes condições de uso e ocupação de solo. Foi realizada a instalação de três Plataformas de Coleta de Dados, por meio de parceria entre EESC, ANA, CPRM, CEMADEN, SMA, TNC e WWF, visando aumentar a resiliência do sistema, decorrente de futuro aprimoramento da gestão, para a segurança hídrica. A metodologia incluiu coletas em seis diferentes períodos, durante dois anos, e análises das variáveis condutividade elétrica, cor, DQO, DBO5,20, nitrato, nitrito, nitrogênio amoniacal, fosfato, pH, turbidez, sólidos totais, coliformes termotolerantes, Escherichia coli, medidas de vazões e velocidades médias em seções transversais. O método foi aplicado em microbacias participantes dos projetos Produtor de Água/PCJ e Conservador das Águas, dentre outras, com áreas de drenagem entre 7 e 1.000 km2, que contribuem para a bacia do rio Piracicaba (12.530 km2). Dados primários, medidos em recente período de severa estiagem no Sistema Cantareira (2013-14), foram integrados aos bancos de dados de órgãos gestores federais e estaduais. A produção de água foi maior em sub-bacias menos florestadas. Foi possível aprimorar a regionalização de cargas poluidoras por área de drenagem na região do Cantareira. A pegada hídrica cinza (WF) foi estimada a partir de simulações no modelo ecohidrológico Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Curvas de permanência de vazões e carga poluidora por área de drenagem foram elaboradas. Supondo-se a continuidade dos projetos \"Produtor de Água/PCJ\" e \"Conservador das Águas\", foram investigados os impactos de cenário futuro de uso do solo. Finalmente, foi desenvolvido novo índice ecohidrológico para quantificação dos serviços hidrológicos e avaliação a sustentabilidade das sub-bacias, a partir da pegada hídrica cinza composta. Assim, usando ferramentas de vanguarda tecnológica (SWAT e WF), a tese fornece subsídios para uma melhor compreensão dos impactos antropogênicos sobre os recursos hídricos e novas estratégias de adaptação baseada em ecossistemas, frente às progressivas taxas de perda de serviços ambientais. Esta tese esteve vinculada a três projetos de pesquisa, dos quais obteve apoio financeiro: (1) Projeto Temático FAPESP 2008/58161-1 \"Assessment of Impacts and Vulnerability to Climate Change in Brazil & Strategies for Adaptation Options\"; (2) \"INCLINE - INterdisciplinary CLimate INvEstigation Center\" (NapMC/USP) e (3) Projeto \"Água Brasil\", Fundação Banco do Brasil, WWF Brasil, ANA e FIPAI/EESC-USP.

Oregon is a state with great social and ecological diversity. Unfortunately however, Oregon's water-rich reputation is more rumor than reality. As with many Western states, Oregon struggles with water scarcity, especially during dry summer months. Recent efforts by the state to develop an integrated water resource strategy (IWRS) to manage present and future water demand in Oregon signifies the very real concern that water is no longer as abundant and available as it once was. With the predicted impacts of climate change and population growth, the already-strained water supply will unlikely sustain current water needs. Using a statewide mail survey of 1,537 Oregon residents (2010), a second survey of 390 water stakeholders (2011), and 12 semi-structured interviews conducted in 2010 and 2011 of stakeholders and elected officials this dissertation examined the role of sociodemographic attributes and environmental values pertaining to concern about Oregon’s water supply, climate change, water conservation behaviors, and prioritization of water use. Data analysis (regression analysis) revealed that to varying degrees gender, age, education, income, concern about water scarcity and belief in the New Ecological Paradigm (NEP) proved reliable predicators of concern about that water quantity is a problem, that Oregonians will be personally affected by water scarcity, and personal water conservation behaviors. The dissertation further applies the Institutional and Analysis Development (IAD) framework to the current efforts by the state to create and IWRS. Recommendations for successful application of the IWRS are discussed, specifically use of adaptive governance in basin and sub-basin planning efforts. / Graduation date: 2012