A habilidade de prever mudanças morfológicas nas regiões costeiras é restringida pela falta de dados observacionais com suficiente resolução espacial e temporal. Com o desenvolvimento do sensoriamento remoto, esse problema pode ser minimizado, especialmente com o uso de câmeras de vídeo para o estudo de regiões costeiras. Os objetivos dessa tese são, através do uso de imagens de vídeo, (1) desenvolver um método robusto para extrair a localização da linha de costa; (2) analisar um conjunto de dados inéditos de 26 anos de imagens diárias; (3) caracterizar as escalas espaciais e temporais da variação da linha de costa em um local representativo, a praia de Duck, NC; (4) testar esse método em uma praia reflectiva e com cúspides, a praia de Massaguaçu localizada no litoral brasileiro; (5) descrever recentes observações de feições morfológicas de meso-escalas associadas a um canal de marés usando uma técnica óptica inovadora e documentar as taxas e padrões de migração dessas feições morfológicas em New River Inlet, NC. Um modelo foi desenvolvido, chamado ASLIM (Augmented ShoreLine Intensity Maxima) para extrair as posições da linha de costa baseado na intensidade máxima observada nas imagens de exposição (timex) através de um ajuste Gaussiano com um subsequente filtro Kalman filtro, este para reduzir incertezas e ruídos. O ASLIM quando comparado com dados do levantamentos batimétricos mostrou um boa correlação com coeficiente de 0.85, estatisticamente significativo). As ondas foram caracterizadas em termos da altura significativa e os componentes longitudinal e transversal do fluxo de energia da onda (Px e Py, respectivamente). Menos de 2\\% da altura da onda é explicada por escalas maiores do que um ano. 66\\% da variância foi explicada por períodos maiores do que o ciclo anual, apesar do fato das forçantes (ondas) serem dominadas por períodos curtos (menores que 20 dias). O primeiro modo da EOF para a variação da linha de costa contém 49\\% da variância e representou o movimento transversal da linha de costa. O segundo modo (26\\% da variância) está associado com a alternância de sinais de acresção em cada lado píer, enquanto que os modos mais altos (7\\% e 5.6\\%) descrevem os efeitos locais do píer. O píer apresentou uma influência significativa no comportamento da linha de costa, à qual estende-se a 500 metros ao norte e sul do píer, duas vezes mais do que os valores assumidos por estudos anteriores. O píer restringe o transporte longitudinal sazonal entre a parte sul (verão) e a parte norte (inverno), resultando em uma acumulação de sedimentos sazonalmente reversa no lado up-drift da deriva. Sinais de erosão foram encontrados ao lado down-drift do píer e que propagam-se 1200 m/ano para longe do píer. A linha de costa apresentou uma tendência à erosão apenas no lado norte do píer, esta erosão pode estar relacionada com a tendência de aumento do transporte longitudinal para o norte, que é bloqueado devido ao píer, gerando uma acumulação na parte sul do píer e erosão na parte norte. O método ASLIM também foi testado na Praia de Massaguaçu e mostrou ser uma valiosa ferramenta para investigar variabilidade da linha de costa. Nossas observações em New River Inlet (NC), revelaram um complexo de bancos de espraiamento e feições arenosas de meso-escalas que migraram em um padrão coerente horário onde nas regiões offshore migraram em direção contrária a desembocadura do rio enquanto que as feições na região próxima a costa, migraram em direção ao canal. Para quantificar de forma objetiva as taxas e padrões de migração um algoritmo foi desenvolvido (LLSA - Lagged Least Square Algorithm) usando sequências de imagens de exposição (timex). Esse método compara diferentes imagens que possuem diferentes intervalos de tempo, e encontra o intervalo (lag) onde essas imagens são similares. A taxa média de migração encontrada foi de 1.53 m/dia (com desvio padrão de 0.76 m/dia). 72\\% das taxas estimadas foram maiores que 1.0 m/dia, 31\\% foram maiores que 2 m/dia, e as taxas máximas encontradas foram 3.5 m/day, em 23 dias. As taxas de migração média longitudinais mostraram um nó em 110 metros da linha de costa que separa as feições que migram para longe do canal (offshore) e para a linha de costa. O padrão circular pareceu ser consistente com o fluxo residual esperado em um delta de maré vazante. Em conclusão, nossos resultados mostraram que o uso de câmeras de vídeo são uma ótima ferramenta para fornecer informações sobre a dinâmica de morfologias costeiras com alta resolução temporal e espacial, de curto à longo-prazo. / The ability to predict changes of the coastal morphology has been restricted by the lack of observational data in a sufficient spatial and temporal coverage. With the advent of remote sensing, the low spatial and temporal resolution could be overcome, especially with the development of video cameras to study nearshore environments. The goals of this thesis are, using remote sensing techniques, to (1) develop a robust method for extracting shoreline locations; (2) analyze a unique 16 and 26-year record of daily to hourly video images; (3) characterize the space-time scales of shoreline variability at a representative site at Duck, NC; (4) test this method at a reflective and cuspy beach at Massaguaçu Beach located at Brazilian coast; (5) describe recent observations of meso-scales morphology associated with tidal inlets using an innovative optical method and document rates and patterns of migration of these features at New River Inlet, NC. A model was developed, called ASLIM (Augmented ShoreLine Intensity Maxima) to extract the shoreline positions based on fitting the band of high light intensity in time exposure images to a local Gaussian fit with a subsequent Kalman filter to reduce noise and uncertainty. The ASLIM model showed good agreement with survey data (correlation coefficient of 0.85, significant at 95\\% confidence level). Wave forcing was characterized in terms of the significant wave height and the cross-shore and longshore components of wave energy flux. 66\\% of the shoreline variability was explained by periods longer than the annual cycle, despite the fact that wave forcing is dominated by shorter periods. The first EOF mode of shoreline variability contained 49\\% of the variance and represented the cross-shore movement (landward- seaward) of the shoreline. The second mode (26\\% of the variance) is associated with alternating accretion signals on either side of the pier, while the next two higher EOFs (7\\% and 5.6\\%) describe the local pier effects. The pier was found to have a significant influence on shoreline behavior that extends out to 500 meters, nearly twice the length scales assumed by previous studies. The pier restricts seasonal longshore transport from the south (summer) and north (winter) sides, resulting in a seasonally-reversing sediment accumulation on the up-drift side. Erosion signals on the down-drift side of the pier were found propagate away from the pier at 1200 m/year. A shoreline erosion trend that was found only on the north side of the pier may be related to the trend found in the alongshore transport, that it is increasing toward the north and is being blocked by the pier. The ASLIM method was also tested at Massaguaçu Beach and showed to be a valuable tool to investigate shoreline variability processes. Our observations, at New Rivet Inlet (NC), revealed a complex set of swash bars and meso-scale sand banks that migrated in a coherent clockwise pattern with movement in offshore regions being away from the inlet mouth while nearshore migration was back toward the inlet. To quantify migration rates and patterns objectively based on sequences of time exposure images, a Lagged Least Squares Algorithm (LLSA) was developed that found the vector migration rate for which the suite of lagged images were most similar, computed on a tile-by-tile basis. The mean migration rate was found to be 1.53 m/day (standard deviation of 0.76 m/day). 72\\% percent of estimated rates were greater than 1.0 m/day, 31\\% percent were larger than 2.0 m/day, and the maximum rate round was 3.5 m/day, averaged over 23 days. Alongshore averages of cross-shore migration rates showed a node at 110 m from the shoreline that separates migration away from the inlet (offshore) from migration toward the inlet near the shore. The circular pattern of migration appeared to be consistent with expected residual flow on an ebb delta. In conclusion, our results showed that the use of video cameras are a useful tool for providing information about the dynamics of coastal morphologies with a high temporal and spatial resolution, from short to long-term.

A habilidade de prever mudanças morfológicas nas regiões costeiras é restringida pela falta de dados observacionais com suficiente resolução espacial e temporal. Com o desenvolvimento do sensoriamento remoto, esse problema pode ser minimizado, especialmente com o uso de câmeras de vídeo para o estudo de regiões costeiras. Os objetivos dessa tese são, através do uso de imagens de vídeo, (1) desenvolver um método robusto para extrair a localização da linha de costa; (2) analisar um conjunto de dados inéditos de 26 anos de imagens diárias; (3) caracterizar as escalas espaciais e temporais da variação da linha de costa em um local representativo, a praia de Duck, NC; (4) testar esse método em uma praia reflectiva e com cúspides, a praia de Massaguaçu localizada no litoral brasileiro; (5) descrever recentes observações de feições morfológicas de meso-escalas associadas a um canal de marés usando uma técnica óptica inovadora e documentar as taxas e padrões de migração dessas feições morfológicas em New River Inlet, NC. Um modelo foi desenvolvido, chamado ASLIM (Augmented ShoreLine Intensity Maxima) para extrair as posições da linha de costa baseado na intensidade máxima observada nas imagens de exposição (timex) através de um ajuste Gaussiano com um subsequente filtro Kalman filtro, este para reduzir incertezas e ruídos. O ASLIM quando comparado com dados do levantamentos batimétricos mostrou um boa correlação com coeficiente de 0.85, estatisticamente significativo). As ondas foram caracterizadas em termos da altura significativa e os componentes longitudinal e transversal do fluxo de energia da onda (Px e Py, respectivamente). Menos de 2\\% da altura da onda é explicada por escalas maiores do que um ano. 66\\% da variância foi explicada por períodos maiores do que o ciclo anual, apesar do fato das forçantes (ondas) serem dominadas por períodos curtos (menores que 20 dias). O primeiro modo da EOF para a variação da linha de costa contém 49\\% da variância e representou o movimento transversal da linha de costa. O segundo modo (26\\% da variância) está associado com a alternância de sinais de acresção em cada lado píer, enquanto que os modos mais altos (7\\% e 5.6\\%) descrevem os efeitos locais do píer. O píer apresentou uma influência significativa no comportamento da linha de costa, à qual estende-se a 500 metros ao norte e sul do píer, duas vezes mais do que os valores assumidos por estudos anteriores. O píer restringe o transporte longitudinal sazonal entre a parte sul (verão) e a parte norte (inverno), resultando em uma acumulação de sedimentos sazonalmente reversa no lado up-drift da deriva. Sinais de erosão foram encontrados ao lado down-drift do píer e que propagam-se 1200 m/ano para longe do píer. A linha de costa apresentou uma tendência à erosão apenas no lado norte do píer, esta erosão pode estar relacionada com a tendência de aumento do transporte longitudinal para o norte, que é bloqueado devido ao píer, gerando uma acumulação na parte sul do píer e erosão na parte norte. O método ASLIM também foi testado na Praia de Massaguaçu e mostrou ser uma valiosa ferramenta para investigar variabilidade da linha de costa. Nossas observações em New River Inlet (NC), revelaram um complexo de bancos de espraiamento e feições arenosas de meso-escalas que migraram em um padrão coerente horário onde nas regiões offshore migraram em direção contrária a desembocadura do rio enquanto que as feições na região próxima a costa, migraram em direção ao canal. Para quantificar de forma objetiva as taxas e padrões de migração um algoritmo foi desenvolvido (LLSA - Lagged Least Square Algorithm) usando sequências de imagens de exposição (timex). Esse método compara diferentes imagens que possuem diferentes intervalos de tempo, e encontra o intervalo (lag) onde essas imagens são similares. A taxa média de migração encontrada foi de 1.53 m/dia (com desvio padrão de 0.76 m/dia). 72\\% das taxas estimadas foram maiores que 1.0 m/dia, 31\\% foram maiores que 2 m/dia, e as taxas máximas encontradas foram 3.5 m/day, em 23 dias. As taxas de migração média longitudinais mostraram um nó em 110 metros da linha de costa que separa as feições que migram para longe do canal (offshore) e para a linha de costa. O padrão circular pareceu ser consistente com o fluxo residual esperado em um delta de maré vazante. Em conclusão, nossos resultados mostraram que o uso de câmeras de vídeo são uma ótima ferramenta para fornecer informações sobre a dinâmica de morfologias costeiras com alta resolução temporal e espacial, de curto à longo-prazo. / The ability to predict changes of the coastal morphology has been restricted by the lack of observational data in a sufficient spatial and temporal coverage. With the advent of remote sensing, the low spatial and temporal resolution could be overcome, especially with the development of video cameras to study nearshore environments. The goals of this thesis are, using remote sensing techniques, to (1) develop a robust method for extracting shoreline locations; (2) analyze a unique 16 and 26-year record of daily to hourly video images; (3) characterize the space-time scales of shoreline variability at a representative site at Duck, NC; (4) test this method at a reflective and cuspy beach at Massaguaçu Beach located at Brazilian coast; (5) describe recent observations of meso-scales morphology associated with tidal inlets using an innovative optical method and document rates and patterns of migration of these features at New River Inlet, NC. A model was developed, called ASLIM (Augmented ShoreLine Intensity Maxima) to extract the shoreline positions based on fitting the band of high light intensity in time exposure images to a local Gaussian fit with a subsequent Kalman filter to reduce noise and uncertainty. The ASLIM model showed good agreement with survey data (correlation coefficient of 0.85, significant at 95\\% confidence level). Wave forcing was characterized in terms of the significant wave height and the cross-shore and longshore components of wave energy flux. 66\\% of the shoreline variability was explained by periods longer than the annual cycle, despite the fact that wave forcing is dominated by shorter periods. The first EOF mode of shoreline variability contained 49\\% of the variance and represented the cross-shore movement (landward- seaward) of the shoreline. The second mode (26\\% of the variance) is associated with alternating accretion signals on either side of the pier, while the next two higher EOFs (7\\% and 5.6\\%) describe the local pier effects. The pier was found to have a significant influence on shoreline behavior that extends out to 500 meters, nearly twice the length scales assumed by previous studies. The pier restricts seasonal longshore transport from the south (summer) and north (winter) sides, resulting in a seasonally-reversing sediment accumulation on the up-drift side. Erosion signals on the down-drift side of the pier were found propagate away from the pier at 1200 m/year. A shoreline erosion trend that was found only on the north side of the pier may be related to the trend found in the alongshore transport, that it is increasing toward the north and is being blocked by the pier. The ASLIM method was also tested at Massaguaçu Beach and showed to be a valuable tool to investigate shoreline variability processes. Our observations, at New Rivet Inlet (NC), revealed a complex set of swash bars and meso-scale sand banks that migrated in a coherent clockwise pattern with movement in offshore regions being away from the inlet mouth while nearshore migration was back toward the inlet. To quantify migration rates and patterns objectively based on sequences of time exposure images, a Lagged Least Squares Algorithm (LLSA) was developed that found the vector migration rate for which the suite of lagged images were most similar, computed on a tile-by-tile basis. The mean migration rate was found to be 1.53 m/day (standard deviation of 0.76 m/day). 72\\% percent of estimated rates were greater than 1.0 m/day, 31\\% percent were larger than 2.0 m/day, and the maximum rate round was 3.5 m/day, averaged over 23 days. Alongshore averages of cross-shore migration rates showed a node at 110 m from the shoreline that separates migration away from the inlet (offshore) from migration toward the inlet near the shore. The circular pattern of migration appeared to be consistent with expected residual flow on an ebb delta. In conclusion, our results showed that the use of video cameras are a useful tool for providing information about the dynamics of coastal morphologies with a high temporal and spatial resolution, from short to long-term.

As a result of climate change, the snowfall amounts may be reduced and hence the snow accumulation, which recharges the groundwater in spring. Groundwater significantly influences summer low flows and its deficiency may negatively affect the streamflow and reduce the water supply in snow- dominated regions. This thesis aimes to describe the influence of changes in snow water equivalent on the inter-annual variability of minimal discharges in warm season (April to September) in eleven mountain catchments of the Czech Republic. The aimes were to determine 1) the duration of snow effects on the minimum discharges after the snowmelt onset, 2) the effect of inter-annual changes of snow water equivalent on minimal discharges in the warm season and 3) the date of the summer lowflows and the trend of its shift within the year. The results are based on hydrological and climatological station data collected by Czech Hydrometeorological Institute between the years 1980 and 2014. Snow affected the summer low flows until June and in exceptional cases even until July in higher elevation catchments. The most significant change was recorded in Úpa catchment, which belongs to higher elevation catchments, the 10 % decrease of maximum snow water equivalent caused reductions in minimal discharge by 8.8 % and 6.8 % in...

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal.

With a volcanic origin, Lake Kivu is deep and meromictic, and shows a very particular limnology and some astonishing features. The data available on its limnology and phytoplanktic communities are limited, dispersed or outdated. This is the first deep, long term study (2002-2004) on limnology and phytoplankton ecology of Lake Kivu, combining different techniques: HPLC analysis of marker pigments, flow cytometry, light, epifluorescence and electron microscopy. Lake Kivu combines a relatively shallow euphotic layer (~18m) usually smaller than its mixed layer (20 – 60 m), and with a weak thermal gradient in the mixolimnion. With an annual average chlorophyll a in the mixed layer of 2.2 mg m-3 and low nutrient levels in the euphotic zone, the lake is clearly oligotrophic. Concerning its phytoplanktonic composition, the most common species were the pennate diatoms Nitzschia bacata Hust. and Fragilaria danica (Kütz.) Lange Bert., and the cyanobacteria Planktolyngbya limnetica (Lemm.) Komárková-Legnerová and Cronberg and Synechococcus sp. Diatoms were the dominant group in the lake, particularly during the dry season episodes of deep mixing. During the rainy season, the stratified water column, with high light and lower nutrient availability, favoured dominance of cyanobacteria. Phycoerythrin-rich phototrophic picoplankton and heterotrophic bacteria cell numbers were constantly high, with relatively subtle spatial, seasonal and vertical variations. In open lake waters, where allochthonous carbon inputs are most probably inconsequential, HNA heterotrophic bacteria abundance is strongly correlated with chlorophyll a. Recent investigations revealed an increasing methane production in the deep waters during the past three decades, leading to an accumulation of gas and the subsequent lowering of the energy required to trigger a devastating release of gasses. The role of primary producers and the probable changes on the export ratio of the organic matter into deep waters after the introduction of the planktivorous sardine from Lake Tanganyika Limnothrissa miodon, is discussed. The actual primary production, 0.71 g C m-2 d-1 (~ 260 g C m-2 y-1), doesn’t seem substantially different from some punctual measurements made in the past, which discards the hypothesis of anthropogenic eutrophication. We believe that the export ratio of organic matter into the deep waters was largely affected by biological changes that could explain part of the methane increase in the past 30 years in Lake Kivu.

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Les bandes de fréquences utilisées conventionnellement pour les systèmes fixes de télécommunication par satellites (bandes C et Ku i.e. 4-15 GHz) sont congestionnées. Néanmoins, le marché des télécommunications civil et de défense accuse une demande de plus en plus importante en services multimédia haut-débit. Par conséquent, l'augmentation de la fréquence porteuse vers les bandes Ka et Q/V (20-40/50 GHz)est activement étudiée. Pour des fréquences supérieures à 5 GHz, la propagation des signaux radioélectriques souffre de l'atténuation troposphérique. Parmi les différents contributeurs à l'affaiblissement troposphérique total(atténuation, scintillation, dépolarisation, température de bruit du ciel), les précipitations jouent un rôle prépondérant. Pour compenser la détérioration des conditions de propagation, des techniques de compensation des affaiblissements (FMT: Fade Mitigation Technique) permettant d'adapter en temps réel les caractéristiques du système en fonction de l'état du canal de propagation doivent être employées. Une alternative à l'utilisation de séries temporelles expérimentales peu nombreuses est la génération de séries temporelles synthétiques d'atténuation due à la pluie et d'atténuation totale représentatives d'une liaison donnée.Le manuscrit est organisé autour de cinq articles. La première contribution est dédiée à la modélisation temporelle de l'affaiblissement troposphérique total. Le deuxième article porte sur des améliorations significatives du modèle de génération de séries temporelles d'atténuation due à la pluie recommandé par l'UITR.Les trois contributions suivantes constituent une analyse critique et une modélisation de la variabilité des statistiques du 1er ordre utilisées lors des tests des modèles de canal. La variance de l'estimateur statistique des distributions cumulatives complémentaires de l'atténuation due à la pluie et de l'intensité de précipitation est alors mise en évidence. Un modèle à application mondiale paramétré au moyen de données expérimentales est proposé. Celui-ci permet, d'une part, d'estimer les intervalles de confiance associés aux mesures de propagation et d'autre part, de quantifier le risque en termes de disponibilité annuelle associée à la prédiction d'une marge de propagation donnée. Cette approche est étendue aux variabilités des statistiques jointes. Elle permet alors une évaluation statistique de l'impact des techniques de diversité de site sur les performances systèmes, tant à microéchelle(quelques kms) qu'à macro-échelle (quelques centaines de kms). / Nowadays, C and Ku bands used for fixed SATCOM systems are totally congested. However, the demand of the end users for high data rate multimedia services is increasing. Consequently, the use of higher frequency bands (Ka: 20 GHz and Q/V 40/50 GHz) is under investigation. For frequencies higher than 5 GHz, radiowave propagation is strongly affected by tropospheric attenuation. Among the different contributors, rain is the most significant. To compensate the deterioration of the propagation channel, Fade Mitigation Techniques (FMT) are used. The lack of experimental data needed to optimize the real-time control loops of FMT leads tothe use of rain attenuation and total attenuation time series synthesizers. The manuscript is a compilation of five articles. The first contribution is dedicated to the temporal modelling of total impairments. The second article aims at providing significant improvements on the rain attenuation time series synthesizer recommended by ITU-R. The last three contributions are a critical analysis and a modelling of the variability observed on the 1st order statistics used to validate propagation channel models. The variance of the statistical estimator of the complementary cumulative distribution functions of rainfall rate and rain attenuation is highlighted. A worldwide model parameterized in compliance with propagation measurements is proposed. It allows the confidence intervals to be estimated and the risk on a required availability associated with a given propagation margin prediction to be quantified. This approach is extended to the variability of joint statistics. It allows the impact of site diversity techniques on system performances at small scale (few kms) and large scale (few hundred of kms) to be evaluated.

Abstract Describing how and why species composition of ecological communities varies across spatial and temporal scales is a primary objective for ecological research. A key challenge is to distinguish changes in community composition resulting from external factors from the natural background variability. In this thesis I aimed to study: 1) the level of temporal variation in community composition of stream macroinvertebrates, 2) the role of different environmental factors to temporal variability, 3) the effect of temporal variability on bioassessment outcomes, and 4) comparability of different approaches to study community variability through time. A majority of the studied macroinvertebrate communities showed lower level of inter-annual variation, i.e. temporal turnover, than expected by chance. The observation of high community stability was further supported by the low level of inter-annual variation in taxonomic completeness (quotient of observed and expected number of species, O/E). Despite the low absolute variation in O/E, ecological status assessments varied annually. Thus the use of one year data may bias management decisions. Macroinvertebrate communities experienced similar dynamics across several spatial extents, from riffles within a stream to streams among regions, suggesting that large-scale extrinsic factors are the major driver of community dynamics. Especially climatically exceptional years may have a strong imprint on community variability. However, at the within-stream scale, coherence was lower than expected, indicating that community dynamics may be driven by different processes at different spatial extents. Stream macroinvertebrate community dynamics were strongly related to in-stream vegetation, temporal variability decreasing with increasing macrophyte cover. Importantly, the effect of in-stream vegetation on temporal turnover of macroinvertebrate communities was masked by the stochastic effect of habitat connectivity, suggesting that unless stochastic effects are controlled for, the role of deterministic processes may be obscured, thus affecting our ability to understand and predict community changes through time. In addition, different approaches to study temporal variability may disagree on estimates for the level of temporal turnover and factors explaining it – a fact that should be taken into account when planning and comparing studies. / Tiivistelmä Yksi ekologisen tutkimuksen keskeisistä tavoitteista on kuvata, miten ja miksi eliöyhteisöjen koostumus muuttuu paikasta ja ajankohdasta toiseen. On tärkeää pystyä erottamaan erilaisten ulkoisten tekijöiden aiheuttamat muutokset luonnollisesta taustavaihtelusta. Väitöskirjani tavoitteena oli selvittää 1) miten paljon virtavesien pohjaeläinyhteisöissä tapahtuu ajallista vaihtelua 2) mitkä ympäristötekijät vaikuttavat yhteisöjen ajalliseen vaihteluun 3) miten ajallinen vaihtelu vaikuttaa ympäristön tilan arviointiin ja 4) kuinka vertailukelpoisia ovat eri lähestymistavat ajallista vaihtelua tutkittaessa. Valtaosa tutkituista pohjaeläinyhteisöistä vaihteli vuosien välillä vähemmän kuin olisi sattumalta odotettavissa osoittaen varsin suurta ajallista pysyvyyttä. Käsitystä yhteisöjen pysyvyydestä tuki myös vähäinen vuosittainen vaihtelu ekologista tilaa kuvaavassa taksonomisessa eheydessä (=havaitun ja odotetun lajiston suhde O/E). Huolimatta näennäisen pienestä vaihtelusta O/E suhteessa paikkakohtaiset tilaluokka-arviot saattoivat vaihtua vuodesta toiseen. Yhden vuoden aineistoon perustuvat tilan arvioinnit voivat siis johtaa virheellisiin johtopäätöksiin. Pohjaeläinyhteisöjen ajallinen vaihtelu oli samankaltaista eri mittakaavoilla niin peräkkäisten koskipaikkojen kuin eri alueilla sijaitsevien purojen välillä. Suuren mittakaavan ympäristötekijät näyttävät siis säätelevän eliöyhteisöjen ajallista vaihtelua. Erityisesti ilmastotekijöiltään poikkeukselliset vuodet säätelevät eliöyhteisöjä, ja niiden vaikutus voi näkyä vielä useiden vuosien kuluttua. Vaihtelun samankaltaisuus peräkkäisten koskipaikkojen välillä oli kuitenkin odotettua pienempää. Yhteisöjä voivat siis säädellä osittain eri tekijät eri mittakaavoilla. Tutkittujen pohjaeläinyhteisöjen ajallisen vaihtelun voimakkuus liittyi erityisesti vesikasvillisuuden määrään: vaihtelu väheni kasvillisuuden lisääntyessä. Kasvillisuuden määrän vaikutus peittyi kuitenkin satunnaisten tekijöiden alle. Jos satunnaisia tekijöitä ei huomioida, deterministiset syy-seuraussuhteet voivat jäädä huomaamatta heikentäen mahdollisuuksiamme ymmärtää ja ennustaa eliöyhteisöjen vaihtelua. Lisäksi eri lähestymistavat ajallista vaihtelua tutkittaessa voivat johtaa erilaisiin arvioihin vaihtelun suuruudesta ja siihen vaikuttavista tekijöistä, mikä tulisi ottaa huomioon tutkimuksia suunnitellessa ja niiden tuloksia vertailtaessa.

Evaluer, maintenir et restaurer les conditions écologiques des rivières nécessitent des mesures du fonctionnement de leurs écosystèmes. De par leur complexité, notre compréhension de ces systèmes est imparfaite. La prise en compte des incertitudes et variabilités liées à leur évaluation est donc indispensable à la prise de décision des gestionnaires. En analysant des données nationales (~ 1654 sites), les objectifs principaux de cette thèse étaient de (1) tester certaines hypothèses intrinsèques aux bio-indicateurs et (2) d'étudier les incertitudes de l'évaluation écologique associées à la variabilité temporelle des bio-indicateurs et à la prédiction des conditions de référence. (1) Ce travail met en évidence (i) le rôle prépondérant des facteurs environnementaux naturels dans la structuration des communautés aquatiques en comparaison des facteurs anthropiques (définis à l'échelle du bassin versant, du corridor riparien et du tronçon), (ii) les réponses contrastées des communautés aquatiques aux pressions humaines (dégradations hydro-morphologiques et de la qualité de l'eau) et (iii) plus généralement, les forts impacts des barrages et de l'altération de la qualité de l'eau sur les communautés aquatiques. (2) Une méthode Bayésienne a été développée pour estimer les incertitudes liées à la prédiction des conditions de référence d'un indice piscicole (IPR+). Les incertitudes prédictives de l'IPR+ dépendent du site considéré mais aucune tendance claire n'a été observée. Par comparaison, la variabilité temporelle de l'IPR+ est plus faible et semble augmenter avec l'intensité des perturbations anthropiques. Les résultats de ce travail confirment l'avantage d'indices multi-métriques basés sur des traits fonctionnels par rapport à ceux relatifs à la composition taxonomique. Les sensibilités différentes des macrophytes, poissons, diatomées et macro-invertébrés aux pressions humaines soulignent leur complémentarité pour l'évaluation des écosystèmes fluviaux. Néanmoins, de futures recherches sont nécessaires à une meilleure compréhension des effets d'interactions entre types de pressions et entre pressions humaines et environnement. / Sensitive biological measures of ecosystem quality are needed to assess, maintain or restore the ecological conditions of rivers. Since our understanding of these complex systems is imperfect, river management requires recognizing variability and uncertainty of bio-assessment for decision-making. Based on the analysis of national data sets (~ 1654 sites), the main goals of this work were (1) to test some of the assumptions that shape bio-indicators and (2) address the temporal variability and the uncertainty associated to prediction of reference conditions.(1) This thesis highlights (i) the predominant role of physiographic factors in shaping biological communities in comparison to human pressures (defined at catchment, riparian corridor and reach scales), (ii) the differences in the responses of biological indicators to the different types of human pressures (water quality, hydrological, morphological degradations) and (iii) more generally, the greatest biological impacts of water quality alterations and impoundments. (2) A Bayesian method was developed to estimate the uncertainty associated with reference condition predictions of a fish-based bio-indicator (IPR+). IPR+ predictive uncertainty was site-dependent but showed no clear trend related to the environmental gradient. By comparison, IPR+ temporal variability was lower and sensitive to an increase of human pressure intensity. This work confirmed the advantages of multi-metric indexes based on functional metrics in comparison to compositional metrics. The different sensitivities of macrophytes, fish, diatoms and macroinvertebrates to human pressures emphasize their complementarity in assessing river ecosystems. Nevertheless, future research is needed to better understand the effects of interactions between pressures and between pressures and the environment.

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