This study uses high resolution satellite measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) and Special Sensor Mi¬crowave Imager (SSM/I) to investigate the variability of sea surface temperature (SST), surface wind velocity, water vapor, cloud liquid water and precipitation associated with westward moving tropical instability waves (TIWs) in the Atlantic Ocean from 1998 to 2005. On interannual scales, TIWs in the Pacific Ocean are strongest during the cold phase of El Ni¨ no Southern Oscillation (ENSO), when the cold tongue is most pronounced. The waves are weak during the warm phase of ENSO. A low-frequency Atlantic air-sea cou-pled mode influences the TIW activity in the Atlantic Ocean as ENSO does in the Pacific Ocean. The characteristics of TIWs are largely associated with the background oceano-graphic states. Coherent ocean-atmosphere patterns are shown in the Atlantic Ocean during eight years. Southeasterly trades strengthen and water vapor increases over warm SST anomalies associated with TIWs. The opposite is true over cold TIW SST anomalies. The cloud liquid water and rain response to the SST follows a very similar pattern, appearing to be roughly in phase with wind convergence and divergence in the central tropical Atlantic. The atmospheric response to the TIW SST anomalies extends north of the TIW active region, suggesting a remote response to the TIWs. The atmospheric response to the Atlantic TIWs shows interannual variability. In 1999, the rainfall response to the TIW SST anomalies is much larger than in other years, which is due to the southward movement of Atlantic ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone). When the Atlantic ITCZ moves south, it is more susceptible to TIW influence. One regional climate model and one global climate model are applied to study the mechanism of atmospheric response to the Atlantic TIWs with daily TMI satellite SST forcing. Both models successfully simulated the wind velocity, wind convergence and pre-cipitation as observed. While the satellite observations support the vertical mixing mech-anism for the surface wind response to TIWs, both models show the pressure gradient mechanism is dominant in the Atlantic.

No description available.

Interannual variation of Indian summer (June-September: JJAS) monsoon rainfall (ISMR) depends on its relative intensity during early (June-July: JJ; contribution 52%) and late (August-September: AS; contribution 49%) phases. Apart from variations in sea surface temperature (SST), the primary reasons behind the variability during JJ and AS can be very different due to change in climatic conditions on account of post-onset processes. Here, using a high resolution general circulation model with seasonally varying climatological SST, mechanisms those govern the intensity of rainfall during JJ and AS are investigated. There is no significant relation-ship between intensity of precipitation over Indian region in JJ and AS. Moreover, the factors determining early monsoon (JJ) precipitation are different than that for late monsoon (AS). In absence of interannual SST variation, pre-monsoon soil moisture do not play a significant role for the interannual variation of monsoon precipitation over India. A large scale oscillation of the ITCZ is noticed on interannual time scale spanning from around 60◦E to 150◦E that brings spatially coherent flood and drought over this region. Early monsoon precipitation has a larger dependency on spring snow depth over Eurasia and phase of the upper tropospheric Rossby wave in May. However, late monsoon precipitation over India is mainly governed by the intensity and time scale of the intraseasonally varying convective cloud bands. This study suggests that early monsoon (JJ) precipitation over Indian region is more correlated with pre-monsoon signatures of land-atmosphere parameters. However, in later parts after the onset (AS), the monsoon intensity is primarily driven by its internal dynamics and characteristics of intraseasonal oscillation.

A análise de uma população em longo prazo permite a identificação da ausência ou presença de variações nos padrões de ciclo de vida, de distribuição espaço-temporal e dinâmica populacional. O ciclo de vida do camarão sete-barbas Xiphopenaeus kroyeri foi investigado na Enseada de Ubatuba, litoral norte do Estado de São Paulo (23º25\' - 23º27\'S / 45º00\' - 45º03\' W) ao longo de um intervalo de treze anos. Amostras de material biológico, de água de fundo e de sedimento foram coletadas em quatro pontos de amostragem em três períodos de 12 meses cada: janeiro a dezembro de 1998, julho de 2006 a junho de 2007 e setembro de 2010 a agosto de 2011. Dados obtidos em 1999 foram incluídos para as análises de crescimento individual, de longevidade e de idade de maturação. Altas abundâncias de fêmeas maduras e de jovens foram respectivamente associadas a valores de temperatura da água de fundo acima e abaixo da média da região. Indivíduos adultos predominaram em pontos com variação temporal da composição granulométrica do sedimento enquanto que os jovens se estabeleceram naqueles em que o sedimento permaneceu fino entre os períodos. Em 1998, a abundância de jovens, o peso individual de machos e fêmeas de todas as categorias demográficas, a idade de maturação morfológica e fisiológica e a longevidade foram maiores do que nos outros períodos. Os parâmetros da função de crescimento de machos e fêmeas variaram entre os períodos, sem apresentarem uma tendência temporal clara. Os padrões anuais de reprodução e recrutamento foram bastante semelhantes entre os períodos. As alterações nos fatores ambientais provocadas por variações na dinâmica de massas de água, pela ocorrência de El Niño e alterações na intensidade de pesca foram consideradas como possíveis agentes relacionadas às variações nos padrões do ciclo de vida da espécie na região / Long-term studies on a population provide detection of the presence or absence of interannual variation in patterns of its life cycle, spatio-temporal distribution, and dynamics. This study investigate the population of the seabob shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri within a period of 13 years in Ubatuba Bay, northern coast of São Paulo state, Brazil (23º25\' - 23º27\'S / 45º00\' - 45º03\' W). Shrimp, bottom water and sediment samples were collected from four sampling sites during three 12-month periods: January-December 1998, July 2006-June 2007, and September 2010-August 2011. Monthly data collected in 1999 were included in growth, longevity and maturation age analyses. High abundance of mature females and juveniles were associated to the occurrence of temperature values below and above the region average, respectively. Adults predominated in sites that showed temporal variation of sediment texture while juveniles occurred in sites where sediment remained fine between the study periods. In the 1998 period values of juveniles were more abundant, individual weight of all demographic categories was higher, both morphological and physiological maturity was attained later and lifespan was longer than on the following periods. Growth function parameters of males and females varied between periods with no clear temporal trend. Monthly patterns of reproduction and recruitment were similar between the study periods. Changes in the environmental conditions caused by variations in the dynamics of the local water masses, occurrence of El Niño and fishery intensity were considered as possible factors related to the interannual variations in the life cycle pattern of X. kroyeri in the study region

Monthly δ18O and Sr/Ca records generated from modern and fossil corals from Southwestern Pacific Ocean sites in the Republic of Vanuatu are used to assess the differences in mean climate state, seasonality, and interannual variability between a glacial and interglacial period. The modern coral contains a well-defined annual signal in δ18O and Sr/Ca. The top 40 cm of the coral used in this study has a mean δ18O value of -4.99+/-0.13%VPDB (2σ) and a mean Sr/Ca value of 8.691+/-0.015mmol/mol (2σ). El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are characterized by positive δ18O and Sr/Ca anomalies, consistent with cooler temperatures and reduced rainfall that typifies ENSO at Vanuatu. The ~12cm long fossil coral is dated to 346 ka + 25, - 9, based on uranium-series analysis and stratigraphic forward modeling, indicating that the fossil coral grew during MIS10 - a glacial period. X-ray diffraction, petrographic inspection, SEM analysis, and geochemical considerations indicate excellent preservation. The mean δ18O value is enriched by 0.74%, and the mean Sr/Ca value is equivalent, compared to the modern coral. Mathematical modeling of Pleistocene mean SST and SSS results in temperature estimates up to ~2˚C warmer and salinity up to ~2 psu saltier than present-day conditions, if seawater Sr/Ca were 1-2% higher in MIS10. Our fossil coral data and modeling results preclude colder SST and lower SSS at Vanuatu during MIS10. Accurate estimates of past values of seawater Sr/Ca remain the largest obstacle to accurately reconstructing past tropical SST using pristine fossil corals. The fossil coral Sr/Ca annual range is similar to the modern range, indicating that seasonal SST ranges were similar, whereas the δ18O annual range is about half that of the modern coral, indicating weaker past seasonal salinity variations. The reduced seasonal SSS variations and increased SSTs near Vanuatu are interpreted as evidence that the SPCZ was displaced from its present location while the fossil coral lived. The geochemical response to El Niño events in the modern coral is observed twice in the fossil coral record, indicating that ENSO-like processes are not unique to interglacial time periods, but characterize the tropical Pacific at least back to MIS 10.

This thesis explores the natural forces controlling variability of the tropospheric oxidants on interannual to glacial-interglacial time scales. The oxidants (primarily OH and ozone) determine the lifetime of many trace gases of human interest, including air pollutants and long-lived greenhouse gases such as methane. The oxidants respond to meteorological conditions, precursor emissions (natural and anthropogenic), and surface and overhead stratospheric boundary conditions, all of which have changed since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21ka). This dissertation first examines in mechanistic detail the effect of variability in the lightning source of nitrogen oxides \((NO_x)\) precursors on interannual variability (IAV) of the oxidants in the recent past. An optimized technique is presented to constrain the lightning \(NO_x\) source in the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (CTM) to time-varying satellite data from the Lightning Imaging Sensor. This constraint improves the ability of the CTM to reproduce observed IAV in 9-year (1998-2006) hindcasts of tropical ozone and OH. IAV in ozone and OH is more sensitive to lightning than to biomass burning, despite greater IAV in \(NO_x\) from the latter source. The sensitivity of OH to lightning reflects positive chemical feedbacks on ozone production, \(HO_x\) recycling, and loss frequencies. This dissertation next introduces an offline-coupled climate-biosphere-chemistry framework for determining oxidant levels at and since the LGM. Detailed simulations of tropospheric composition are performed by GEOS-Chem driven by meteorological fields from the GISS ModelE general circulation model, land cover from the BIOME4-TG global terrestrial equilibrium vegetation model, and fire emissions from the LMfire model. Time slice simulations are presented for the present day, preindustrial, and two different possible representations of the LGM climate. Sensitivity of the results to uncertainty in lightning and biomass burning emissions is tested. Though well-buffered, all simulations find net reduced oxidative capacities relative to the present day. The most important parameters for controlling tropospheric oxidants over glacial-interglacial periods are changes in overhead ozone, tropospheric \(H_2O\), and lightning. The results are discussed in the context of the ice-core record, particularly for methane. / Engineering and Applied Sciences

Atmospheric inversion has recently become an important tool in estimating CO2 sinks and sources albeit that the existing inversion results are often uncertain and differ considerably in terms of the spatiotemporal variations of the inverted carbon flux. More measurements combined with terrestrial ecosystem information are expected to improve the estimates of global surface carbon fluxes which are used to understand the relationships between variabilities of the terrestrial carbon cycle and anomalies of climatic factors. Inversions using more observations have often been hampered by the intense diurnal variations of CO2 concentrations at continental sites. Diurnal variations of the surface flux are included with atmospheric boundary dynamics in order to improve the atmospheric inversion accuracy. Modeling experiments conducted in this study show that inverse estimates of the carbon flux are more sensitive to the variation of the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics than to the diurnal variation in the surface flux. It is however generally better to consider both diurnal variations in the inversion than to consider only either of them. Forest carbon dynamics is closely related to stand age. This useful terrestrial ecosystem information has been used as an additional constraint to the atmospheric inversion. The inverse estimates with this constraint over North America exhibit an improved correlation with carbon sink estimates derived from eddy-covariance measurements and remotely-sensed data, indicating that the use of age information can improve the accuracy of atmospheric inversions. Terrestrial carbon uptake is found mainly in northern land, and a strong flux density is revealed in southeastern North America in an improved multi-year inversion from 2002 to 2007. The global interannual variability of the flux is dominated by terrestrial ecosystems. The interannual variabilities of regional terrestrial carbon cycles could be mostly explained by monthly anomalies of climatic conditions or short-time extreme meteorological events. Monthly anomalies of the inverted fluxes have been further analyzed against the monthly anomalies of temperature and precipitation to quantitatively assess the responses of the global terrestrial carbon cycle to climatic variabilities and to determine the dominant mechanisms controlling the variations of terrestrial carbon exchange.

Atmospheric inversion has recently become an important tool in estimating CO2 sinks and sources albeit that the existing inversion results are often uncertain and differ considerably in terms of the spatiotemporal variations of the inverted carbon flux. More measurements combined with terrestrial ecosystem information are expected to improve the estimates of global surface carbon fluxes which are used to understand the relationships between variabilities of the terrestrial carbon cycle and anomalies of climatic factors. Inversions using more observations have often been hampered by the intense diurnal variations of CO2 concentrations at continental sites. Diurnal variations of the surface flux are included with atmospheric boundary dynamics in order to improve the atmospheric inversion accuracy. Modeling experiments conducted in this study show that inverse estimates of the carbon flux are more sensitive to the variation of the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics than to the diurnal variation in the surface flux. It is however generally better to consider both diurnal variations in the inversion than to consider only either of them. Forest carbon dynamics is closely related to stand age. This useful terrestrial ecosystem information has been used as an additional constraint to the atmospheric inversion. The inverse estimates with this constraint over North America exhibit an improved correlation with carbon sink estimates derived from eddy-covariance measurements and remotely-sensed data, indicating that the use of age information can improve the accuracy of atmospheric inversions. Terrestrial carbon uptake is found mainly in northern land, and a strong flux density is revealed in southeastern North America in an improved multi-year inversion from 2002 to 2007. The global interannual variability of the flux is dominated by terrestrial ecosystems. The interannual variabilities of regional terrestrial carbon cycles could be mostly explained by monthly anomalies of climatic conditions or short-time extreme meteorological events. Monthly anomalies of the inverted fluxes have been further analyzed against the monthly anomalies of temperature and precipitation to quantitatively assess the responses of the global terrestrial carbon cycle to climatic variabilities and to determine the dominant mechanisms controlling the variations of terrestrial carbon exchange.

abstract: Climate change will result not only in changes in the mean state of climate but also on changes in variability. However, most studies of the impact of climate change on ecosystems have focused on the effect of changes in the central tendency. The broadest objective of this thesis was to assess the effects of increased interannual precipitation variation on ecosystem functioning in grasslands. In order to address this objective, I used a combination of field experimentation and data synthesis. Precipitation manipulations on the field experiments were carried out using an automated rainfall manipulation system developed as part of this dissertation. Aboveground net primary production responses were monitored during five years. Increased precipitation coefficient of variation decreased primary production regardless of the effect of precipitation amount. Perennial-grass productivity significantly decreased while shrub productivity increased as a result of enhanced precipitation variance. Most interesting is that the effect of precipitation variability increased through time highlighting the existence of temporal lags in ecosystem response. Further, I investigated the effect of precipitation variation on functional diversity on the same experiment and found a positive response of diversity to increased interannual precipitation variance. Functional evenness showed a similar response resulting from large changes in plant-functional type relative abundance including decreased grass and increased shrub cover while functional richness showed non-significant response. Increased functional diversity ameliorated the direct negative effects of precipitation variation on ecosystem ANPP but did not control ecosystem stability where indirect effects through the dominant plant-functional type determined ecosystem stability. Analyses of 80 long-term data sets, where I aggregated annual productivity and precipitation data into five-year temporal windows, showed that precipitation variance had a significant effect on aboveground net primary production that is modulated by mean precipitation. Productivity increased with precipitation variation at sites where mean annual precipitation is less than 339 mm but decreased at sites where precipitation is higher than 339 mm. Mechanisms proposed to explain patterns include: differential ANPP response to precipitation among sites, contrasting legacy effects and soil water distribution. Finally, increased precipitation variance may impact global grasslands affecting plant-functional types in different ways that may lead to state changes, increased erosion and decreased stability that can in turn limit the services provided by these valuable ecosystems. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Biology 2014

FundaÃÃo Cearense de Apoio ao Desenvolvimento Cientifico e TecnolÃgico / FlutuaÃÃes temporais como as originadas de variaÃÃes sazonais e perturbaÃÃes climÃticas, possuem funÃÃo importante na manutenÃÃo da estrutura e da diversidade nas comunidades biÃticas. A HipÃtese do DistÃrbio IntermediÃrio explica que as caracterÃsticas gerais das comunidades e a dinÃmica das populaÃÃes, especialmente a riqueza de espÃcies, pode sofrer alteraÃÃes diante de distÃrbios nos ecossistemas. Ambientes aquÃticos estÃo sujeitos à variabilidade temporal elevada, como resultado de interaÃÃes entre parÃmetros fÃsicos, quÃmicos e biolÃgicos. Consequentemente, a composiÃÃo de espÃcies e abundÃncia relativa das populaÃÃes e comunidades està sujeita a rearranjos frequentes. Este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar as condiÃÃes trÃficas do reservatÃrio de General Sampaio, que està situado no estado do CearÃ, semiÃrido do Brasil. Utilizou o Ãndice de Estado TrÃfico (TSI) proposto por Toledo et al. (1983), e o relacionou à abundÃncia relativa, à dominÃncia de fitoplÃncton e à variaÃÃo anual da pluviosidade. Foram obtidos dados climÃticos, fÃsicos, para a transparÃncia do disco de Secchi, fÃsforo total, ortofosfato, nitrato, nitrito, amÃnia, nitrogÃnio total e clorofila a, em paralelo com a amostragem de fitoplÃncton para identificaÃÃo e cÃlculo de contagem do nÃmero de indivÃduos componentes das espÃcies. Houve variabilidade estacional das variÃveis que foram analisadas para os perÃodos climÃticos chuvoso e seco. CondiÃÃes trÃficas indicaram a presenÃa de condiÃÃes oligotrÃficas à eutrÃficas durante o perÃodo analisado. Esta variaÃÃo promoveu condiÃÃes favorÃveis para um padrÃo de dominÃncia do grupo Chlorophyceae, durante as estaÃÃes chuvosas, e de cianofÃceas durante as estaÃÃes secas. Assim, pode-se argumentar que estado trÃfico e abundÃncia relativa das espÃcies de fitoplÃncton estÃo relacionados com as flutuaÃÃes sazonais na hidrologia do sistema deste reservatÃrio, que reflete uma caracterÃstica exclusiva de regiÃes semiÃridas. / Temporal fluctuations as those derived from seasonal variations and disturbances, may have an important role in maintaining the structure and diversity of biota. The Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis states that the general characteristics of communities and population dynamics, especially the species richness may change the face of disturbances in ecosystems. Aquatic environments are subject to high temporal variability as a result of interactions between physical, chemical, and biological parameters. Consequently, species composition and relative abundance of populations and communities are subject to frequent rearrangements. This study aimed to evaluate the trophic conditions of the General Sampaio Reservoir, which is situated in the semiarid Cearà State of Brazil. We used the Trophic State Index (TSI) proposed by Toledo et al. (1983), and related it to species diversity, the relative abundance of phytoplankton and the variation of annual rainfall. We obtained climatic and physics data, Secchi disc transparency, total phosphorus, orthophosphate, nitrate, nitrite, ammonia, total nitrogen and chlorophyll a, in parallel to the sampling of phytoplankton for species identification and the calculation of the number counts. There was seasonal variability in the variables that were analyzed for the rainy versus dry climatic periods. Trophic conditions indicated the presence of oligotrophic to eutrophic conditions during the research in this reservoir. This variation facilitated favorable conditions for Chlorophyceae dominance during the rains periods, and for cyanobacteria dominance during the dry periods. Thus, it may be argued that the trophic state and relative abundance of phytoplankton is related to seasonal fluctuations in the hydrology of the reservoir system, which reflects a unique feature of semiarid regions.