Esta dissertação procura contribuir para literatura empírica sobre crescimento econômico restrito pelo balanço de pagamentos através da investigação de como a mudança estrutural, identificada como alterações na composição setorial das exportações e importações, afeta a intensidade da restrição externa. Para tanto, são realizados dois exercícios empíricos. O primeiro fornece evidências para a validade da Lei de Thirlwall Multissetorial para um conjunto de 90 países no período 1965-1999, baseando-se na análise do erro de previsão e do desvio médio absoluto, assim como na aplicação de um teste de regressão. No segundo, apresentam-se evidências de que o crescimento econômico brasileiro no período 1962-2006 foi compatível tanto com a Lei de Thirlwall quanto com a Lei de Thirlwall Multissetorial. As implicações da Lei de Thirlwall Multissetorial foram utilizadas, então, para explorar a relação entre estrutura produtiva, mudança estrutural e restrição externa por meio da análise da evolução das elasticidades-renda ponderadas das exportações e importações. Dadas a natureza setorial deste exercício empírico e sua possível conexão com a literatura historiográfica sobre o II Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento (1974-1979), os resultados do trabalho foram utilizados para avaliar a contribuição dos setores para a evolução das elasticidades-renda ponderadas das exportações e importações, subsidiando, assim, o debate existente acerca do ajustamento externo promovido entre 1974 e 1984. Os resultados sugerem que a interpretação de Castro (1985), mesmo quando avaliada sob uma métrica diferente daquela utilizada pelo autor, possui fundamento empírico. Porém, faz-se necessário ressaltar a qualificação de Fishlow (1986) de que a melhoria verificada na balança comercial nos anos 1983-1984 decorre em maior medida do comportamento das exportações do que das importações. / This dissertation aims to contribute to the empirical literature on balance-of-payments-constrained growth by investigating how structural change, identified with change in the sectoral composition of exports and/imports, affects the extent of the external constraint. This is done by two empirical exercises. The first one presents evidence in favor of the Multi-Sectoral Thirlwall Laws validity for a sample of 90 countries in the period 1965-1999, by analyzing the mean prediction error and the mean absolute deviation, as well as applying a regression test. In the second one, the evidence show that Brazilian economic growth in the period 1962-2006 was compatible with both Thirlwalls Law and Multi-Sectoral Thirlwalls Law. Multi-Sectoral Thirlwalls Law implications were, then, utilized to explore the relationship between productive structure, structural change and external constraint by analyzing the evolution of weighted income elasticities of exports and imports. Given the sectoral nature of this empirical exercise and its possible connection with the historical literature about the II National Development Plan (1974-1979), the results were used to evaluate the sectors contribution to the evolution of weighted income elasticities of exports and imports during the period. These findings provide additional support to the existing debate about the external adjustment promoted between 1974 and 1984. The results suggest that Castros (1985) interpretation has empirical support, even when evaluated using a different metric than the one used by the author. However, it is necessary to highlight Fishlows (1986) insight that the improvement verified in the trade balance in the years 1983-1984 came out to greater extent from exports behavior rather than from imports behavior.

by Man Ka Kit. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1994. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 67-76). / ABSTRACT --- p.3 / INTRODUCTION --- p.4 / Chapter PART I --- WHAT IS PREDICTION? --- p.7 / Chapter 1.1 --- Structure of Scientific Explanation： Covering-Law Model --- p.8 / Chapter 1.2 --- Prediction and Theory choice --- p.10 / Chapter 1.3 --- Prediction and Economic Methodology --- p.11 / Chapter 1.4 --- Conventional Wisdom --- p.12 / Chapter 1.41 --- Friedman's Methodology --- p.12 / Chapter 1.42 --- The Impact of Popper --- p.14 / Chapter 1.5 --- Unconventional Wisdom --- p.16 / Chapter 1.51 --- KUHN AND LAKATOS --- p.16 / Chapter 1.52 --- FEYERABEND THE ANARCHIST --- p.17 / Chapter 1.6 --- Conclusion for Part I --- p.18 / Chapter PART II --- MACROECONOMIC CONTROVERSY --- p.20 / Chapter 2.1 --- "lucas' Critique, the New Classical and the New Keynesian" --- p.20 / Chapter 2.2 --- The Role of Stabilization Policy --- p.22 / Chapter 2.3 --- Effectiveness of Monetary Policy --- p.24 / Chapter 2.4 --- effectiveness of fiscal policy --- p.25 / Chapter 2.5 --- Conclusion for Part II --- p.26 / Chapter PART III --- TESTING RICARDIAN EQUIVALENCE --- p.28 / Chapter 3.1 --- ricardian equivalence versus keynesian theory --- p.29 / Chapter 3:2 --- (unrealistic) assumptions behind ricardian proposition --- p.31 / Chapter 3.21 --- "INEFINTIE horizon, altruism, and intergeneration transfer" --- p.31 / Chapter 3.22 --- IMPERFECT CAPITAL MARKET --- p.34 / Chapter 3 23 --- DISTORTIONARY TAX --- p.35 / Chapter 3.24 --- "BOUNDED rationality, PERFECT FORESIGHT, AND RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS" --- p.36 / Chapter 3.3 --- Empirical Evidence --- p.37 / Chapter 3.31 --- CONSUMPTION FUNCTION STUDIES --- p.38 / Chapter 3 32 --- INTEREST RATE STUDIES --- p.43 / Chapter 3.4 --- technical problems： (unrealistic) assumptions behind the econometric models --- p.45 / Chapter 3.41 --- Specification and Data Generation Process --- p.45 / Chapter 3 42 --- IDENTIFICATION PROBLEM --- p.48 / Chapter 3 43 --- staggerjng of (NOT-well-established) hypotheses --- p.49 / Chapter 3.44 --- PROXIES FOR unobservables --- p.50 / Chapter 3.5 --- Conclusion for Part III --- p.51 / Chapter PART IV --- CONCLUSION --- p.53 / Chapter 4.1 --- Duhem-Quine Thesis --- p.53 / Chapter 4.2 --- The Austrians and Subjectivism --- p.55 / Chapter 4.3 --- hausman --- p.57 / Chapter 4.4 --- Friedman and Popper Revisited --- p.58 / Chapter 4.5 --- The Role of Prediction --- p.61 / EPILOGUE --- p.62 / Ricardian Equivalence Vs Approximate Equivalence： Some Reflections --- p.62 / Truth and Invariance --- p.63 / "Certitude, Simplicity, and Irrationality" --- p.65 / REFERENCES --- p.67

La théorie économique néoclassique a historiquement évolué autour du concept d’équilibre (partiel ou général), supposé stable à long terme et indépendant des fluctuations monétaires ou réelles autour de l’équilibre même. L’attention plus récente vers le principe de dépendance au sentier et, en particulier, l’émergence du concept d’hystérèse en économie, remet en cause les propriétés de ces équilibres, notamment en ce qui concerne l’unicité, la stabilité et l’indépendance par rapport aux fluctuations. La thèse se concentre sur le modèle dit d’hystérèse « véritable », qui a ses origines dans la physique. Loin de promouvoir une approche scientifique « dure » en l’économie, il s’agit d’analyser les conséquences des discontinuités d’investissement des entreprises sur les fluctuations et sur les trajectoires de long terme. A’ travers l’approche théorique Postkeynésienne et l’approche méthodologique multi-agents, la thèse développe un modèle qui est capable de générer des fluctuations non linéaires autour d’équilibres purement transitoires, c’est à dire qui s’établissent de manière endogène à partir des sentiers d’ajustement effectivement entrepris. Dans ce cadre analytique, on retrouve renforcées les implications Postkeynésiennes de l’inégalité dans la distribution du revenu, sur l’utilisation des capacités productives existantes et sur le taux de croissance de l’économie. De surcroit, les politiques économiques de relance dites keynésiennes regagnent une place centrale sur le court ainsi que sur le long terme. / The neoclassical theory developed historically around the concept of equilibrium (partial or general), by assuming its long run stability and independence from monetary and real fluctuations. The growing emphasis on path-dependence and, particularly, on the concept of hysteresis calls into question the traditional method, by rejecting the theoretical validity of the neoclassical equilibrium and its related properties of stability. This thesis focuses on the model of “genuine” hysteresis, which first developed in the field of physics and recently extended its application to economic phenomena. Far from suggesting an appropriation of the methods that are typical of “hard” sciences, the aim is to analyse the consequences of discontinuous and hysteretic investment decisions on business cycles and long run trajectories. By relying on the Post Keynesian theory of growth and distribution, and the multi-agent methodological approach, this thesis develops a macroeconomic theoretical model that is able to generate non-linear business cycles around transitory equilibria, which are fully endogenous and historically determined according to the specific adjustment path. This theoretical framework confirms and reinforces the traditional Post Keynesian implications of income inequalities on the degree of utilization of productive capacity and on long run growth. Moreover, expansionary demand policies regain a central role in driving the economy towards the full employment of productive resources.

A presente dissertação tem por objetivo discutir diferentes aspectos de um método de modelagem econômica conhecido por Modelos Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC). Essa classe de modelos tem como principais características a presença de matrizes que representam os balanços patrimoniais dos setores modelados, bem como os fluxos de transações e de fundos financeiros. A primeira etapa do trabalho consiste em analisar as origens dos modelos SFC, apresentando os trabalhos que precederam as primeiras formulações. Em seguida, é feito um survey completo da literatura SFC corrente. Essas duas etapas são realizadas através de uma revisão bibliográfica de artigos, working papers, teses e dissertações. A terceira etapa do trabalho consiste em discutir aspectos metodológicos da modelagem SFC, em especial a modelagem de equações comportamentais de expectativas. Por fim, um modelo SFC é elaborado com o objetivo de analisar o comportamento de uma economia sob quatro regimes fiscais diferentes: (i) balanço equilibrado; (ii) meta de gastos do governo como proporção do PIB; (iii) meta de déficit do governo como proporção do PIB; (iv) meta de dívida pública como proporção do PIB. O comportamento em estado estacionário desses regimes é analisado, bem como sua resiliência a choques. Entre as conclusões, percebeu-se que o segundo regime apresenta a maior taxa de crescimento no steady state, além de ser mais resiliente a choques negativos. / The general goal of this dissertation is to discuss different dimensions of a class of Post-Keynesian models known as Stock-Flow Consistent Models. The main features of these models are: (i) the presence of balance sheets matrices of the sectors to be modeled, guaranteeing the consistency in the economic stocks; (ii) the flow of funds matrix, that records the real and financial transactions of the economy. The first step of the work is to analyze the origins of the SFC models, presenting the works that preceded the first elaborations. Next to it, the current SFC literature is surveyed. These two steps are accomplished by means of a survey of the literature in academic journals, working papers, dissertations and thesis. The third step of the work is a discussion of methodological issues such as the role of expectations in the behavioral functions for consumption. Finally, the fourth step consists of elaborating a SFC model in order to analyze four fiscal policy regimes: (i) balanced budget, (ii) a target for government’s expenditures , (iii) a target for government deficit, and (iv) a target for government debt. The steady state behavior of each regime is analyzed, as well as its resilience to adverse shocks. The second regime is the one with the higher steady state growth rate and also is the more resilient to negative shocks.

We generalize a simple New Keynesian model and show that a flattening of the Phillips curve reduces the size of fiscal multipliers at the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate. The factors behind the flatting are consistent with micro- and macroeconomic empirical evidence: it is a result of, not a higher level of price rigidity, but an increase in the degree of strategic complementarity in price-setting -- invoked by the assumption of a specific instead of an economy-wide labour market, and decreasing instead of constant-returns-to-scale. In normal times, the efficacy of fiscal policy and resulting multipliers tends to be small because negative wealth effects crowd out consumption, and because monetary policy endogenously reacts to fiscally-driven increases in inflation and output by raising rates, offsetting part of the stimulus. In times of a binding ZLB and a fixed nominal rate, an increase in (expected) inflation instead lowers the real rate, leading to larger fiscal multipliers. Conditional on being in a ZLB-environment, under a flatter Phillips curve, increases in expected inflation are lower, so that fiscal multipliers at the ZLB tend to be lower. Finally, we also discuss the role of solution methods in determining the size of fiscal multipliers. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

The relationships among the balance of payments and other macroeconomic variables in the Korean economy for the period 1961-85 are analyzed in this study. Theoretical studies on the effects of government policies on the economy and the balance of payments were conducted under both the Keynesian and monetary approaches. The Keynesian approach concentrates on the commodity and capital market adjustment factors and does not focus on the money market factors, whereas the monetary approach considers the balance of payments adjustments as a symptom of money market disequilibrium alone. The basic assumptions of those two approaches, taken seperately, are not fully relevant to the Korean economy, which has unemployed resources, a high proportion of non-traded goods to traded goods, and monetary effects of balance of payments changes. Therefore, a model combining monetary and real factors to explain the short-run behavior of Korea's balance of payments in a single framework is developed. The empirical results of the combined model show that its explanatory power is much higher than either of the two models taken separately. For balance of payments adjustment policy in Korea during the period 1961-85, fiscal and foreign exchange rate policy instruments were found to be very effective in the short-run, but monetary policy instruments were not.

<p>Two DSGE models are calibrated and simulated to investigate how the role of monetarypolicy differs between a closed and an open economy. The central bank conducts monetary policy according to a Taylor (1993) rule, reacting to inflation- and output deviations. Prices are sticky and there are habit components which slow down adjustment of consumption and exports. The models are subjected to shocks in the interest rate, inflation, technology and consumption. In most of the cases the shocks have a bigger and quicker affect on output and employment in the open economy. In connection with positive consumption- and interest rate shocks inflation is big and negative at first but gets positive already two quarters after the shock, due to effects in the exchange rate channel. In closed and open economies, a stronger reaction to output, than in the standard Taylor (1993) rule, decreases welfare losses dramatically.</p>

<p>This thesis consists of four self-contained essays.</p><p><b>Essay 1</b> compares the dynamic behaviour of an estimated New Keynesian sticky-price model with one-period delayed effects of monetary policy shocks to the dynamics of a structural vector autoregression model. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques on German pre-EMU data. The dynamics of the sticky-price model following either a demand shock or monetary policy shock are qualitatively and quantitatively comparable to those of the estimated structural VAR. When compared to the delayed-effects model, an alternative model with contemporaneous effects of monetary policy is rejected according to the posterior-odds ratio criterion.</p><p><b>Essay 2</b> addresses the transmission of exchange-rate variations in an estimated, small open-economy model. In contrast to the standard New Open Economy Macroeconomics framework, imported goods are treated here as material inputs to production. The resulting model structure is transparent and tractable while also able to account for imperfect pass through of exchange-rate shocks. The model is estimated with Bayesian methods on German data and the key finding is that a substantial depreciation of the nominal exchange rate leads to only modest effects on CPI inflation. An extended version of the model reveals that relatively small weight is placed on foreign consumption.</p><p><b>Essay 3</b> (with Annika Alexius) analyses the strong responses of long-term interest rates to shocks that are difficult to explain with standard macroeconomic models. Augmenting the standard model to include a time-varying equilibrium real interest rate generates forward rates that exhibit considerable movement at long horizons in response to movements of the policy-controlled short rate. In terms of coefficients from regressions of long-rate changes on short-rate movements, incorporating a time-varying natural rate explains a significant fraction of the excess sensitivity puzzle.</p><p><b>Essay 4</b> (with Pär Österholm) argues that the common finding of a large and significant coefficient on the lagged interest rate in Taylor rules may be the consequence of misspecification, specifically an omitted variables problem. Our Monte Carlo study shows that omitting relevant variables from the estimated Taylor rule can generate significant partial-adjustment coefficients, despite the data generating process containing no interest-rate smoothing. We further show that misspecification leads to considerable size distortions in two recently proposed tests to distinguish between interest-rate.</p>

Derivation and Estimation of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy This paper explores how well Swedish inflation is explained by a New Keynesian Phillips Curve. As the real driving variable in the Phillips Curve, a measure of firms' real marginal cost is compared to the traditional output gap. The results show that, with real marginal cost in the Phillips Curve equation, the point estimates generally have the expected positive sign, which is less frequently the case with the output gap. However, with both real marginal cost and the output gap, it is difficult to pin down a statistically significant relationship with inflation. Firm-Level Evidence of Shifts in the Supply of Credit This paper examines empirically whether firms are subject to shifts in credit supply over the business cycle. Shifts in the supply of credit are identified by exploring how firms substitute between commitment credit -- lines of credit -- and non-commitment credit. The results show that firms on average rely more on commitment credits when monetary policy is tight and when the financial health of banks is weaker. The results are consistent with a bank lending channel of monetary policy and with shifts in the supply of credit following deteriorations in banks' balance sheets. Lines of Credit and Investment: Firm-Level Evidence of Real Effects of the Financial Crisis This paper studies how the 2008 financial crisis affected corporate investment in Sweden through its effect on credit availability. The approach is to compare investments of firms before and after the onset of the crisis as a function of their ex ante sensitivity to a credit supply shock, controlling for fundamental determinants of investments. Sensitivity to a credit supply shock is measured as credit reserves, defined as unused credit on lines of credit. The results indicate that the decline in investment following the crisis was not exacerbated by a contraction in the supply of credit.

This thesis consists of four self-contained essays. <b>Essay 1</b> compares the dynamic behaviour of an estimated New Keynesian sticky-price model with one-period delayed effects of monetary policy shocks to the dynamics of a structural vector autoregression model. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques on German pre-EMU data. The dynamics of the sticky-price model following either a demand shock or monetary policy shock are qualitatively and quantitatively comparable to those of the estimated structural VAR. When compared to the delayed-effects model, an alternative model with contemporaneous effects of monetary policy is rejected according to the posterior-odds ratio criterion. <b>Essay 2</b> addresses the transmission of exchange-rate variations in an estimated, small open-economy model. In contrast to the standard New Open Economy Macroeconomics framework, imported goods are treated here as material inputs to production. The resulting model structure is transparent and tractable while also able to account for imperfect pass through of exchange-rate shocks. The model is estimated with Bayesian methods on German data and the key finding is that a substantial depreciation of the nominal exchange rate leads to only modest effects on CPI inflation. An extended version of the model reveals that relatively small weight is placed on foreign consumption. <b>Essay 3</b> (with Annika Alexius) analyses the strong responses of long-term interest rates to shocks that are difficult to explain with standard macroeconomic models. Augmenting the standard model to include a time-varying equilibrium real interest rate generates forward rates that exhibit considerable movement at long horizons in response to movements of the policy-controlled short rate. In terms of coefficients from regressions of long-rate changes on short-rate movements, incorporating a time-varying natural rate explains a significant fraction of the excess sensitivity puzzle. <b>Essay 4</b> (with Pär Österholm) argues that the common finding of a large and significant coefficient on the lagged interest rate in Taylor rules may be the consequence of misspecification, specifically an omitted variables problem. Our Monte Carlo study shows that omitting relevant variables from the estimated Taylor rule can generate significant partial-adjustment coefficients, despite the data generating process containing no interest-rate smoothing. We further show that misspecification leads to considerable size distortions in two recently proposed tests to distinguish between interest-rate.