In this study, we examine the time evolution of the relative contribution of sulfate aerosols and greenhouse gases to anthropogenic climate change. We use the new IPSL-CM4 coupled climate model for which the first indirect effect of sulfate aerosols has been calibrated using POLDER satellite data. For the recent historical period the sulfate aerosols play a key role on the temperature increase with a cooling effect of 0.5 K, to be compared to the 1.4 K warming due to greenhouse gas increase. In contrast, the projected temperature change for the 21st century is remarkably independent of the effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols for the SRES-A2 scenario. Those results are interpreted comparing the different radiative forcings, and can be extended to other scenarios. We also highlight that the first indirect effect of aerosol strongly depends on the land surface model by changing the cloud cover.

The indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols are expected to cause a significant radiative forcing of the Earth’s climate whose magnitude, however, is still uncertain. Most climate models use parameterizations for the aerosol indirect effects based on so-called ‘‘empirical relationships’’ which link the cloud droplet number concentration to the aerosol concentration. New satellite datasets such as those from the POLDER and MODIS instruments are well suited to evaluate and improve such parameterizations at a global scale. We derive statistical relationships of cloud-top droplet radius and aerosol index (or aerosol optical depth) from satellite retrievals and fit an empirical parameterization in a general circulation model to match the relationships. When applying the fitted parameterizations in the model, the simulated radiative forcing by the first aerosol indirect effect is reduced by 50% as compared to our baseline simulation (down to -0.3 and -0.4 Wm-2 when using MODIS and POLDER satellite data, respectively).

In their contribution to PNAS, Penner et al. (1) used a climate model to estimate the radiative forcing by the aerosol first indirect effect (cloud albedo effect) in two different ways: first, by deriving a statistical relationship between the logarithm of cloud droplet number concentration, ln Nc, and the logarithm of aerosol optical depth, ln AOD (or the logarithm of the aerosol index, ln AI) for present-day and preindustrial aerosol fields, a method that was applied earlier to satellite data (2), and, second, by computing the radiative flux perturbation between two simulations with and without anthropogenic aerosol sources. They find a radiative forcing that is a factor of 3 lower in the former approach than in the latter [as Penner et al. (1) correctly noted, only their “inline” results are useful for the comparison].

Realistic simulations of clouds are of uppermost importance for climate modelling using general circulation models. Satellite data are well suited to evaluate model parametrizations. In this study we use the Laboratoire de Me´te´orologie Dynamique general circulation model (LMDZ). We evaluate the current LMDZ cloud phase parametrization, in which the repartition of condensed cloud water between liquid and ice is a function of the local temperature. Three parameters are used to derive a relation between liquid cloud water content and temperature, two of which are not physically based. We use the POLDER-1 satellite data to infer more realistic parameters by establishing statistical relationships between cloud top thermodynamical phase and cloud top temperature, consistently in both satellite data and model results. We then perform a multitude of short model integrations and derive a best estimate for the lowest local temperature where liquid water can exist in a cloud (Tice = -32°C in our parametrization). The other parameter which describes the shape of the transition between ice and liquid water is also estimated. A longer simulation has then been performed with the new parameters, resulting in an improvement in the representation of the shortwave cloud radiative forcing.

Among anthropogenic perturbations of the Earth\''s atmosphere, greenhouse gases and aerosols are considered to have a major impact on the energy budget through their impact on radiative fluxes. We use three ensembles of simulations with the LMDZ general circulation model to investigate the radiative impacts of five species of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC-11 and CFC-12) and sulfate aerosols for the period 1930-1989. Since our focus is on the atmospheric changes in clouds and radiation from greenhouse gases and aerosols, we prescribed sea surface temperatures in these simulations. Besides the direct impact on radiation through the greenhouse effect and scattering of sunlight by aerosols, strong radiative impacts of both perturbations through changes in cloudiness are analysed. The increase in greenhouse gas concentration leads to a reduction of clouds at all atmospheric levels, thus decreasing the total greenhouse effect in the longwave spectrum and increasing absorption of solar radiation by reduction of cloud albedo. Increasing anthropogenic aerosol burden results in a decrease in high-level cloud cover through a cooling of the atmosphere, and an increase in the low-level cloud cover through the second aerosol indirect effect. The trend in low-level cloud lifetime due to aerosols is quantified to 0.5 min day-1 decade-1 for the simulation period. The different changes in high (decrease) and low-level (increase) cloudiness due to the response of cloud processes to aerosols impact shortwave radiation in a contrariwise manner, and the net effect is slightly positive. The total aerosol effect including also the aerosol direct and first indirect effects remains strongly negative.

Strategies to detect and attribute aerosol global impacts on clouds and climate from synergetic approaches involving modeling and observational evidence at different spatial and temporal scales.

Global climate change is considered to be one of the most serious concerns of humankind (United Nations, 1992; United Nations, 2002). Anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols impact considerably the energy balance of the Earth system, possibly provoking adverse effects on social, ecological, and economical equilibria. This is one of the main reasons why the understanding of the Earth’s climate system is of major importance. If better predictions of the response of the climate system to anthropogenic perturbations were available, political decisions against negative impacts could be taken, and social adaptations to changed climate conditions would be possible.

Variability and change of the Earth\''s climate are of fundamental importance to humankind. In particular anthropogenic climate change has been considered widely as one of the most urgent concerns for the society (United Nations, 1992, 2002). It is therefore vital to improve the understanding of the Earth\''s climate system and its variability.

Sachsen gehört zu den gewitter- und blitzreichsten Regionen Deutschlands. Durchschnittlich werden hier etwa 3,5 Blitze pro km² und Jahr gemessen (in Thüringen etwa 1,5 Blitze). Gewitter und Blitzaktivitäten bergen hohe Risiken für Umwelt und Gesellschaft. Bedeutend sind dabei die Stromstärke, die Anzahl der Blitze und Begleiterscheinungen wie Hagel, Windböen oder Starkregen. Die Studie umfasste eine grundlegenden Analyse der Blitzaktivitäten in Sachsen. Die Beobachtungsdaten seit 1999 belegen Trends zur Zunahme der Blitzhäufigkeit pro Tag und den Einfluss westlicher, südwestlicher und südlicher Anströmungen auf die Blitzaktivität. Für den Beobachtungszeitraum werden hohe jährliche Variabilitäten aufgezeigt. Offenkundige Zusammenhänge zwischen Blitzaktivität und Landnutzung bzw. Klimaparametern sind bisher nicht erkennbar. Für die Zukunft ist aber die Beeinflussung der Gewitterhäufigkeit durch die Erwärmung der Atmosphäre nicht auszuschließen.

Schnellwachsende Baumarten im Kurzumtrieb dienen der Produktion von Holz für eine energetische Nutzung. Weiterer Nutzen liegt in der Erosionsvermeidung, der Verbesserung des Landschaftsbildes, der Erzeugung unabhängiger Wärmeenergie, der Steigerung der Biodiversität sowie in Leistungen für Gesundheitsschutz und Klimaanpassung. Die Broschüre fasst den aktuellen Stand der Forschung zusammen und bietet zahlreiche Praxishinweise und Empfehlungen zur Etablierung von Kurzumtriebsplantagen (KUP), zu Pflege- und Schutzmaßnahmen sowie zur Ernte und der Verwertung des Holzes. Informiert wird auch über die Wirtschaftlichkeit von KUP und die rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen.