Cette thèse vise à identifier et évaluer les impacts biogéophysiques des changements d'usage des sols depuis les 150 dernières années jusqu'à la fin du XXIe siècle sur le climat en Afrique de l’Ouest à partir des modèles LUCID et des scénarios CMIP5 utilisés dans le contexte LUCID-CMIP5. Les analyses menées dans cette thèse se sont d'abord basées dans le Sahel et dans le Golfe de Guinée où les changements passés de la couverture terrestre sont supérieurs à 5%. Les simulations LUCID ont été d'abord évaluées dans cette thèse en comparant les précipitations et la température de l'air simulées par les modèles aux données d'observation. Les analyses ont montré que la moyenne et la variabilité inter-annuelle observées des précipitations et de la température sont respectivement sous-estimées et surestimées par la plupart des modèles de climat LUCID même si la température semble mieux simulée que les précipitations. Dans cette étude, les deux simulations actuelles forcées respectivement par une distribution actuelle et pré-industrielle de la couverture terrestre ont été comparées. Les résultats montrent qu'il n'y a pas de différence évidente entre ces deux simulations par rapport aux valeurs moyennes climatiques des précipitations et de la température dans les modèles comme si les changements de la couverture terrestre n'ont pas vraiment d'importance sur la représentation de ces variables. Dans le Golfe de Guinée, les analyses montrent que l'expansion des surfaces cultivées et des pâturages s'est effectuée au détriment d'une déforestation entraînant une diminution du LAI, une augmentation d'albédo et une diminution de la rugosité de surface. Les analyses montrent que les impacts historiques des changements d'occupation des sols sur le climat dans ces régions restent très petits par rapport aux changements induits par l'augmentation des gaz à effet de serre dans l’atmosphère. Le LAI simulé par les modèles de surface LUCID et leur relation avec le climat en Afrique de l'Ouest ont été évalués, les résultats montrent que les précipitations sont fortement et positivement corrélées à la densité de feuillage avec des valeurs supérieures ou égales à 0.8 dans les deux régions. La plupart des modèles de climat montrent que la corrélation entre le LAI et la température de l'air est positive dans le Sahel et négative dans le Golfe de Guinée et suggèrent que plus de LAI dans le golfe de Guinée conduit plus d'évapotranspiration et donc une surface plus froide, alors que dans le Sahel l'effet d'albédo de l'augmentation du LAI peut dominer et augmenter la température de surface.Dans un second temps, l'impact biophysique des changements futurs de la couverture terrestre sur le climat de surface du XXIe siècle a été évalué à l'aide des simulations spécifiques similaires aux scénarios RCP8.5 mais avec une végétation fixe en 2006. Les analyses révèlent qu'à l’échelle régionale, les impacts biophysiques des changements d'occupation des sols dans les scénarios ont été globalement faibles mais statistiquement significatifs au Sahel et en Afrique centrale où la déforestation est prescrite dans le futur (>10%), mais avec une large dispersion sur la réponse du climat résultant aux différentes paramétrisations de la surface terrestre dans les modèles de climat. / By climate models developed in the LUCID project and CMIP5 models used in the LUCID-CMIP5 projet, this thesis aims to identify and evaluate biogeophysical impacts of LULCC of the past 150 years and the end of XXIst century on surface climate in West Africa. Focusing analysis in two contrasted regions of West Africa: Sahel and Guinea where land cover change is above 5% since pre-industrial times, results reveal expansion of crops and pasture and deforestation in Guinea in all LUCID models. In this work, simulations of present-day rainfall and surface air temperature have been compared with observed datasets. Results show that the observed mean and inter-annual variability of rainfall are respectively underestimated and overestimated by most of the seven climate models. Overall surface air temperature is better simulated than precipitation.Two simulations of rainfall and surface air temperature, forced respectively with present-day and pre-industrial land cover distribution are also compared. Results show that there is no obvious/visible difference between the two simulations with respect to mean climatic values of both rainfall and temperature as if the changes in land cover did not really matter for the good representation of those variables. Finally, this thesis evaluates leaf area index (LAI) in the LUCID models and its relationships with surface climate. Observations reveal that precipitation is highly and positively correlated to foliage density with values larger or equal to 0.8 in both the Sahel and Guinea. Five out of seven models show positive correlations, but not as large as in the observations. However none of the models is able to capture a larger correlation between precipitation and LAI in Guinea than in the Sahel. Most of climate models show that correlation between LAI and surface air temperature is positive in the Sahel and negative in Guinea. It suggests that more LAI in Guinea will lead to more evapotranspiration and therefore cooler surface, while in the Sahel the albedo effect of increased LAI may dominate and increase surface temperature. Finally, analysis reveals that historical effects of land-use changes are not regionally significant among the seven climate models due to a small land-cover change prescribed in these regions compared to the changes induced by large scale forcing such as sea surface temperatures changes and CO2 concentration increase.Furthermore, biogeophysical impact of land-use change in the XXIst Century climate were evaluated using specific simulations similar to RCP8.5 scenarios but with a prescribed fixed land cover map on 2006. The analysis reveals, that in contrast of last 150 years, deforestation continues in the coming years in tropical region in scenarios resulting from the extension of the cultivated area reaching 15 million km2 in 2100 over tropical Africa. Regionally, the biogeophysical impacts of projected changes in land cover in RCP8.5 scenarios were generally small but statistically significant in the Sahel and Central Africa regions where deforestation is more than 10% with a wide dispersion of climate response due to differents parameterizations of land surface in climate models.

Human society releases greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere while providing housing, heat, mobility and industrial production. Man-made greenhouse gas emissions are the main causes of climate change, coming mainly from burning fossil fuels and land-use changes. Sustainably managed forests play an important role in climate change mitigation with the prospect of sustainably providing essential materials and services as part of a low-carbon economy, both through the substitution of fossil-intensive fuels and material and through their potential to capture and store carbon in the long-term perspective. The overall aim of this thesis was to develop a methodology under a life cycle perspective to assess the climate impact of the sustainable use of forest biomass in bioenergy and material systems. To perform this kind of analysis a methodological framework is needed to accurately compare the different biological and technological systems with the aim to minimize the net carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and hence the climate impact. In such a comparison, the complete energy supply chains from natural resources to energy end-use services has to be considered and are defined as the system boundaries. The results show that increasing biomass production through more intensive forest management or the usage of more productive tree species combined with substitution of non-wood products and fuels can significantly reduce global warming. The biggest single factor causing radiative forcing reduction was using timber to produce wood material to replace energy-intensive construction materials such as concrete and steel. Another very significant factor was replacing fossil fuels with forest residues from forest thinning, harvest, wood processing, and post-use wood products. The fossil fuel that was replaced by forest biomass affected the reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, with carbon-intensive coal being most beneficial to replace. Over the long term, an active and sustainable management of forests, including their use as a source for wood products and bioenergy allows the greatest potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The objective of this study was to analyze patterns, dynamics and processes of land-use/cover changes in the transboundary Mara River Basin in East Africa. We specifically focused on deforestation and expansion of agriculture in the watershed. The intensity analysis approach was used to analyze data from satellite imagery-derived land-use/cover maps. Results indicate that swap change accounted for more than 50% of the overall change, which shows a very dynamic landscape transformation. Transition from closed forest to open forest was found to be a dominant landscape change, as opposed to a random change. Similarly, transition from open forest to small-scale agriculture was also found to be a dominant transition. This suggests a trend (pathway) of deforestation from closed forest to small-scale agriculture, with open forest as a transitional land cover. The observed deforestation may be attributed to continuous encroachment and a series of excisions of the forest reserve. Transition from rangeland to mechanized agriculture was found to be a dominant land-use change, which was attributed to change in land tenure. These findings are crucial for designing strategies and integrated watershed management policies to arrest further deforestation in the forest reserves as well as to sustainably control expansion of agriculture.

The diploma thesis describes theoretical issues of land-use planning with applicable legislation, analyzes the current state of land-use planning documentation, evaluates development goals of village and proposes practical solution to their inclusion to the land-use plan.

Orientador: Edson Luís Piroli / Resumo: No processo de produção do espaço geográfico, o homem promove mudanças no uso da terra e, consequentemente, alterações no ciclo hidrológico, que dão origem a impactos ambientais negativos, tais como o aumento das taxas de erosão do solo, da exportação de sedimentos das bacias hidrográficas e do escoamento superficial, principalmente quando reduz ou elimina a cobertura vegetal. Tais impactos são observados na bacia do Ribeirão São Domingos, localizada no município de Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo – SP, que passou pelos processos de expansão urbana e intensificação da ocupação agrícola a partir da década de 1970. Nesse contexto, o objetivo desta tese foi analisar a influência das transformações ocorridas no uso da terra da referida bacia hidrográfica desde a década de 1960 e em cenários futuros de uso na configuração dos processos de erosão, aporte de sedimentos e escoamento superficial, por meio de modelagem, como subsídio ao ordenamento territorial urbano e rural. Para tanto, foi necessário: caracterizar os usos da terra passados e atuais; simular os cenários futuros; levantar, caracterizar e mapear os solos da área de estudo; ajustar a equação Intensidade-Duração-Frequência (IDF) para utilização nos estudos hidrológicos; realizar as modelagens de erosão e hidrológica; analisar os instrumentos de ordenamento territorial e parcelamento do solo do Plano Diretor do município e propor as alterações necessárias à redução do escoamento superficial e do perigo de inundação na bacia. A met... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: In the process of producing the geographical space, humans promote changes in land use and, consequently, changes in the hydrological cycle, which generate negative environmental impacts such as an increase in soil erosion rates, sediment yield and surface runoff at the watershed outlets, especially when the vegetal cover is reduced or eliminated. These impacts are observed in São Domingos stream watershed, located in the municipality of Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, in São Paulo state, which has undergone urban expansion and intensification of agricultural use since the 1970s. In this context, this thesis aims to analyze the influence of land use changes in this watershed, since the 1960s and in future use scenarios, in the configuration of erosion processes, sediment yield, and surface runoff by means of modeling, as a subsidy to the urban and rural land use planning. Aiming this objective, the following steps were necessary: to characterize the past and current land uses; to simulate future scenarios; to survey, characterize and map the soils of the study site; to adjust the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) equation to be used in hydrological studies; to perform erosion and hydrologic modeling; to analyze the land use planning and soil parceling instruments of the municipality’s master plan and to propose the necessary changes in order to reduce runoff and flood hazard in the watershed. The methodology was based on the production of land use maps for the years 1962, 1984, 200... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Doutor

Department of Geography amd Geo-Information Sciences / PhDGEO / This study set out to evaluate the extent of land use change, competition and conflict in Polokwane city and in selected land restitution areas of Limpopo province. The methods of data collection and analysis included document analysis, triangulation of quantitative and qualitative survey methods, use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) techniques and field observations. The restitution studies relied on information from the regional land claims commission regarding land dispossessions, land claims and post settlement activities which were analysed using content analysis. Land use maps and data from department of land affairs were obtained covering different time periods from 1994 to 2002 and GIS analysis was used to document land use change, competition and conflicts. A questionnaire survey involving a sample of 240 residents, 164 business people and 16 government officials was conducted and analysed quantitatively to establish perceptions and experiences with land use changes. In-depth interviews with key informants were also conducted and information analysed qualitatively. The researcher also engaged in extensive field observations in the city and surrounding land restitution areas. The study found that both Polokwane city and the surrounding land reform areas were characterised by rapid land use change, competing interests, conflict, disputes and tensions related to access, control and use of land resources historically and currently. Other key findings include the fact that the structure of Polokwane area is a result of apartheid planning. It has a distorted spatial pattern, the result of political factors that can be identified as: a legacy of apartheid; land use policy; competition among potential users; inadequate legislation and planning; low provisions for land use control and rezoning; land use speculation and lack of adequate public participation in the planning processes. Polokwane interaction with the rural areas is inadequate and does not support development of these areas leading to persistent service delivery issues. A management strategy is recommended with the following features: Capacity building, Conflict resolution, Stakeholders participation and Governance. Adequate land use control mechanism need to be put in place; public policies should minimise conflicts between alternative land development strategies; existing policies and procedures applicable to land management should be reviewed. An effective national land reform programme is required to drive development; public participation is key in all planning activities. Mediation is essential because it is a more efficient and less costly means of concluding land use conflicts. Polokwane needs to play a greater role in managing land use, changes, competition and conflicts both in the capital city and in the surrounding rural areas.

Land-use changes impact the energy balance of the Earth system, and feedbacks in the Earth system can dampen or amplify this perturbation. We analyze here from satellite data the response of clouds and subsequently radiation to a change of land use for the example of deforestation in the Amazon Basin. In this region, the characteristics of different cloud types over two vegetation types (forest and crop-/grasslands) were calculated for a time period of five years by using satellite data from the instruments MODIS and CERES. The cloud types are defined according to height, optical thickness, and fraction of cloud cover. For calculating the radiative forcing caused by deforestation, the dependency of spatial and temporal averages for the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave radiation of the top of the atmosphere on vegetation types were determined as well. The results show distinct differences in cloud cover and radiative forcing over crop-/grasslands and forests for the two vegetation regimes, implying a potentially significant positive cloud feedback to deforestation.

The thesis was conducted to investigate soil fertility changes and assess the sustainability of agroecological management in different land-use systems of the southern Ecuadorian Andes using quantitative and qualitative methods. Ecuador still holds the highest deforestation rate of all Latin American countries which also has a large impact in the research area by forest conversion into agricultural land. Agricultural land-use systems in the research area are multifaceted due to heterogeneous biophysical and socio-economic conditions. To map this diversity, land-use systems were investigated in Yantzaza (low-external-input), El Tambo (irrigated cash crops) and San Lucas (integrated nutrient management). Yet, management effects on soil fertility have not been assessed systematically in Ecuadorian farming systems which hampers the evaluation whether agroecological management is sustainable. Therefore, the present study used a set of quantitative and qualitative approaches to assess soil fertility changes at plot and farm scale with a nutrient balance/chronosequence approach and local expert knowledge. Nutrient balances were modeled with Nutmon after adaptation of difficult-to-quantify flows to the local conditions facilitating area and land-use specific calculation. Soil nutrient balances in the research area were diverse and varied between −151 to 66 kg ha-1 a-1, −4 to 33 kg ha-1 a-1 and −346 to 39 kg ha-1 a-1 for NPK, respectively. The evaluation of socio-economic and soil fertility explanatory variables revealed that up to 70% of the balances’ variability could be explained. Land-uses with a strong market orientation such as annual crops in El Tambo received large amounts of external inputs which were often focused on mineral N fertilization causing strongly negative PK balances. In contrast, P balances were mainly positive after the application of organic fertilizers and nutrient recycling as was found in perennial crops of San Lucas. NP balances in annual crops of Yantzaza were most negative due to the low-external-input system with nonexistent fertilization as well as leaching and burning of crop residues. Highest soil nutrient stocks were found in land-uses benefiting from a surplus of within-farm flows. The quantification of soil nutrient stocks and their temporal changes were carried out with a chronosequence approach in Yantzaza. SOC stocks in annual/perennial crops and pastures decreased between 14% and 19% after forest conversion by slash-and-burn. Annual sites were abandoned not later than five years after forest conversion due to a shortage of available N and P closely linked to low-external-input management. Stocks for TN, TP, TS and exchangeable bases increased above forest level in perennial crops and pastures 6-20 years after forest conversion. Yet a strong decrease in SOC and soil nutrient stocks was found in oldest perennial and pasture sites compared to medium aged sites. This was traced back to adverse site processes such as the decay of clay humus complexes, leaching as well as poor pasture management. To assess sustainability of the agroecological management, a set of sustainability indicators was implemented including N balances, yearly N stock change and SOC stocks as well as total (TN) and available (PO4-P) soil nutrient stocks. Sustainability assessment took place based on individual land-uses and nutrients within each pilot study since soil fertility change did not show a consistent trend within one research area. Despite mainly negative soil nutrient balances, the impact on the yearly soil nutrient stock change was often negligible due to large soil nutrient pools. Annual and perennial crops of Yantzaza and pastures of San Lucas exceeded the threshold value of 1% for yearly TN stock losses. Yet, only annual crops in Yantzaza, having the highest yearly TN stock losses of 4.9%, also showed severe TN and SOC losses between 15-25% below those of the forest reference area. Therefore, the present agroecological management of annuals in Yantzaza is not sustainable which was also indicated by the abandonment of these sites not later than 5 years after forest conversion due to soil fertility decline. Hence, it is proposed to install an integrated agricultural management in annual crops of Yantzaza using nutrient recycling and fertilization for the replenishment of soil nutrient stocks. Nutrient balance studies indicated an average N-fertilizer application of more than 200 kg ha-1 a-1 for annual crops in El Tambo and low SOC stocks in soils of the colluvial foot slopes. Therefore, a laboratory incubation experiment was conducted to investigate fertilization effects of urea and newly introduced guinea pig manure on the microbial activity in colluvial and eroded soils of El Tambo. While urea fertilization induced an acceleration of SOM mineralization, a combined fertilization (urea + GPM) increased the amount of microbial biomass and provided mineral nitrogen for immediate plant uptake. SOM stocks in colluvial soils were 40% below those of eroded soils which was partly due to the positive priming effect after urea fertilization. A participatory appraisal with local farmers resulted in the adaptation of the present harvest residue management aiming at SOM maintenance in colluvial soils. Yet, the calculation of the potential for SOM replenishment indicated that only the maize residue biomass had the potential to compensate for SOM mineralization losses. Therefore, it is recommended to support SOM replenishment by additional organic inputs since SOM has to be maintained in the long-term to enable agricultural productivity.

L'objectif initial de cette thèse est d'apporter une solution à ce problème en proposant, premièrement, une approche cognitive basée sur le paradigme appelé Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) pour représenter les processus de prise de décision des acteurs humains, et deuxièmement, une validation de cette approche dans le contexte d'un modèle complet de changement d'usage des sols dans lequel la plupart des facteurs cités ci-dessus sont également simulés. Le résultat de ce travail est une approche générique qui a été validée sur un modèle intégrant le changement d'usage des sols d'une région située dans le Delta du Mékong au Vietnam. Nos contributions principales sont les suivantes : Intégration d’une architecture BDI au sein d'une plateforme de modélisation à base d'agents (GAMA) ;Conception d’un cadre générique baptisé « Multi-Agent Based Land-Use Change » (MAB-LUC) permettant de modéliser et de simuler les changements d’usage des sols en prenant en compte les décisions des agriculteurs ;Proposition d’une solution permettant d’intégrer et d’évaluer les facteurs socio-économiques et environnementaux dans le cadre de la planification agraire et d’intégrer MAB-LUC dans le processus existant proposé par la FAO.Ce travail, au-delà du cas d’étude concernant le Delta du Mékong, a enfin été conçu de façon générique afin que la méthodologie utilisée puisse être généralisée à la modélisation de systèmes socio-écologiques où les facteurs humains doivent être représentés avec précision. / The initial goal of this thesis has been then to address this problem by proposing, on one hand, a cognitive approach based on the Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) paradigm to represent the decision-making processes of human actors in agent-based models and, on the second hand, a validation of this approach in a complete land-use change model in which most of the factors cited above have also been simulated.The outcome of this work is a generic approach, which has been validated in a complex integrated land-use change model of a small region of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. Our main contributions have been:The integration of the BDI architecture within an agent-based modeling platform (GAMA); The design of the Multi-Agent Based Land-Use Change (MAB-LUC) framework that can take into account the farmers’ decision-making in the land-use change processes;The proposal of a solution to assess the socio-economic and environmental factors in land-use planning and to integrate the MAB-LUC framework into the land-use planning process of. I conclude by showing that this work, designed in a generic fashion, can be reused and generalized for the modeling of complex socio-ecological systems where individual human factors need to be represented accurately.

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