Le marché des véhicules électriques est animé par une dynamique très positive. Il s'agit cependant essentiellement d'un marché de niche. Il est donc légitime de s’interroger quant à son avenir.D'une part, cette dynamique est portée par de fortes préoccupations environnementales et bénéficie d'un large soutien des autorités publiques. Les constructeurs automobiles ont ces dernières années fortement investi dans cette technologie, les progrès technologiques sont rapides et offrent des perspectives intéressantes.D'autre part, des subventions conséquentes sont aujourd’hui nécessaires pour permettre aux véhicules électriques d’être compétitifs. Il est inévitable que ces subventions diminuent si le marché grandit. Deux mécanismes opposés sont donc en jeu et rendent incertain le développement du marché des véhicules électriques pour les années à venir.Notre recherche propose d'analyser ces mécanismes pour les véhicules utilitaires légers, et plus particulièrement pour le transport urbain de marchandises. Les besoins des entreprises de transport de marchandises sont évalués à travers une quarantaine d'entretiens, menés dans quatre pays européens et analysés à la lumière de la théorie de la diffusion de l'innovation. Ces entretiens mettent en évidence les obstacles opérationnels et économiques à l'utilisation de véhicules électriques, qui sont liés à la technologie elle-même mais aussi à sa nouveauté.Une approche quantitative complète cette étude. Elle s’appuie sur un modèle de prédiction de parts de marché, qui quantifie la façon dont les contraintes économiques et opérationnelles évoluent avec les développements technologiques. Ces contraintes sont mesurées par deux indicateurs: l'adéquation de l'autonomie du véhicule avec son usage et les comparaisons de coûts totaux de possession (TCO). Une originalité du modèle est qu’il traite le montant des subventions à l’achat d’un véhicule électrique comme une variable endogène, qui s’adapte dynamiquement aux évolutions du marché.Afin de compenser le manque de données disponibles sur les usages des véhicules utilitaires, un modèle statistique a été développé. Ce modèle permet d’exploiter au mieux les données d'une enquête sur les véhicules utilitaires légers en France, menée par le service de la donnée et des études statistiques (SDES) du Ministère de la Transition Écologique et Solidaire / Freight transport. The needs of freight transport companies are assessed through some forty interviews conducted in four European countries and analyzed in the light of innovation diffusion theory. These interviews highlight the operational and economic obstacles to the use of electric vehicles, which are linked to the technology itself but also to its novelty.A quantitative approach completes this study. It is based on a market share prediction model, which quantifies how economic and operational constraints evolve with technological developments. These constraints are measured by two indicators: the vehicle's range adequacy given its use and total cost of ownership (TCO) comparisons. An original feature of the model is that it treats the amount of subsidies for the purchase of an electric vehicle as an endogenous variable that dynamically adapts to market developments.In order to compensate for the lack of available data on commercial vehicle uses, a statistical model has been developed. This model makes the best use of data from a survey on light commercial vehicles in France, conducted by the statistical department of the Ministry of the Environment (SDES).These analyses confirm that the development of the electric vehicle market is not certain and that it is currently extremely dependent on public support. Even in scenarios of continued financial support from public administrations, exponential market growth is unlikely. Rather, the market will grow slowly for many years to come, the time for technology to overcome its8dependence on public financial support. For example, our reference scenario forecasts a 13% market share for electric vans in 2032

Submitted by Adriana Alves Rodrigues (aalves@espm.br) on 2017-11-22T12:41:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ANA PAULA TEIXEIRA BALDINI.pdf: 3710864 bytes, checksum: 138420c4029a61f1d93cdc63b5865011 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Alves Rodrigues (aalves@espm.br) on 2017-11-22T12:42:00Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 ANA PAULA TEIXEIRA BALDINI.pdf: 3710864 bytes, checksum: 138420c4029a61f1d93cdc63b5865011 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ana Cristina Ropero (ana@espm.br) on 2017-11-22T13:00:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 ANA PAULA TEIXEIRA BALDINI.pdf: 3710864 bytes, checksum: 138420c4029a61f1d93cdc63b5865011 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-11-22T13:00:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ANA PAULA TEIXEIRA BALDINI.pdf: 3710864 bytes, checksum: 138420c4029a61f1d93cdc63b5865011 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-22 / Evaluate buying process from consumer behavior perspective is key to develop effective marketing strategies. Its importance grows as the involvement increases and decision process is perceived as riskier and more complex, especially in the search for information. In this scenario, this dissertation presents an involvement measurement for a specific category purchase: light commercial vehicles. The target is to present also the decision style that the consumer adopts in the buying process, through a scale that captures cognitive and emotional factors, known as Consumer Styles Inventory or CSI. It is also evaluated the importance of recommendations sources as they play an important role in this context, impacting not only the style adopted, but also the final choice. Therefore, it is presented four consumer clusters, according to the styles adopted. It was highlighted involvement and importance of recommendations source in the buying process for the four groups. These goals were achieved through a survey collected from 311 Brazilian buyers of light commercial vehicles. The results confirm the relationship between the constructs decision styles and involvement, as well identifies the most important recommendation sources on the buying process, according to the four clusters. Management implications are also presented based not only on the analysis and results from the survey but also in the experience of field interviews. Based on analysis and results, it is recommended improvements on the scale due low internal consistency of four CSI factors. Besides that, opportunities related to further exploratory studies and transversal analysis are presented as relevant for the light commercial vehicle buying process. / Avaliar o processo de compra sob a perspectiva do comportamento do consumidor é fundamental para traçar estratégias de marketing efetivas. A importância dessa compreensão cresce na medida em que aumenta o envolvimento na compra, ou seja, a decisão é percebida como mais arriscada e o processo, mais complexo, principalmente no tocante à busca de informações. Nesse sentido, essa dissertação apresenta o mensuramento do envolvimento em uma compra de categoria específica: veículos comerciais leves. Busca-se explicitar o estilo que o mesmo adota nesse processo de decisão, por meio de uma escala que captura fatores cognitivos e emocionais, conhecida como Consumer Styles Inventory, ou CSI. Sabe-se que as fontes de recomendações têm papel importante nesse processo, impactando não somente o estilo adotado, mas também a escolha final. Assim, adicionalmente associou-se os estilos do consumidor, ao envolvimento e às fontes de recomendações importantes no processo de compra. Esses objetivos foram atingidos por meio de pesquisa quantitativa com uma amostra de 311 respondentes brasileiros consumidores de veículos comerciais leves, que gerou quatro grupos distintos de consumidores. Os resultados confirmaram o relacionamento entre os construtos estilos decisórios e envolvimento, bem como identificaram as fontes de informação mais importantes no processo de compra, apresentando-os de maneira segmentada. A aplicabilidade gerencial da dissertação é discorrida, a partir da pesquisa quantitativa, bem como a partir da experiência de entrevistas presenciais. Baseando-se nas análises e resultados, sugerem-se melhorias da escala para a categoria de produto, devido a baixa consistência interna de quatro fatores do CSI. Além disso, oportunidades relacionadas a estudos exploratórios e transversais são apresentados como relevantes para o contexto de compra de veículos comerciais leves.

La question générale de cette recherche porte sur l’identification et l’analyse de la diversité des usages de systèmes techniques complexes, les Véhicule Utilitaires Légers (VUL), réalisés par un groupe hétérogène d’utilisateurs professionnels pour contribuer à une typologie des usages. Cette dernière est destinée à servir de ressource informationnelle pour les acteurs de la conception de ces véhicules. Ce travail s’articule autour de deux orientations.■ La première orientation vise l’analyse de la diversité des usages afin d’en faire ressortir des critères structurant. Pour cela, nous proposons une unité d’analyse transverse à l’ensemble des activités : les « usages situés d’un système multi-instrumenté (SMI) ». Nous les définissons comme l’ensemble des actions de l’utilisateur dirigées vers un but et servant une activité générale et située, impliquant tout ou une partie du SMI en tant que médiateur ou objet de l’activité. Un SMI représente le sous-système d’instruments construit par l’utilisateur à partir d’un système technique complexe.Les analyses s’appuient sur deux séries d’observations (exploratoires et systématiques outillées) auprès d’une diversité d’utilisateurs. Les résultats montrent qu’il existe des dimensions plus larges que les différents pôles de l’activité instrumentée influençant la réalisation des usages. En effet, l’utilisateur entretient des interrelations complexes avec les ressources de son action ; les caractéristiques de l’activité générale que les usages permettent et les caractéristiques de la situation au sein de laquelle ils sont réalisés. Il existe ainsi différents types d’usages en fonction de la place du SMI au sein de l’usage et de l’objet de l’usage.■ La seconde orientation poursuit un travail de réduction de la diversité des usages dans une perspective de catégorisation. Créer une catégorisation induit la définition d’une unité d’analyse qui sous-tend la construction des catégories et les variables permettant leur discrimination. Pour cela, nous proposons de mobiliser une seconde unité d’analyse, les « classes de situations d’usages d’un SMI », permettant de monter en généralisation à travers l’identification de variables structurant les usages.Mais la simple construction d’une catégorisation n’est pas suffisante au regard des caractéristiques des processus de conception de l’entreprise et des différents besoins informationnels de ses acteurs. Nous proposons donc un premier travail de compréhension de ces processus, des tâches des différents acteurs qui y contribuent et de leurs besoins informationnels associés en termes d’usages des utilisateurs finaux. Pour cela, une série d’entretiens semi-directifs a été menée auprès d’acteurs de la conception : 1) dont certaines tâches impliquent la prise en compte des usages des VUL ; 2) réalisant des activités distinctes à différentes périodes et/ou processus de conception. Les résultats offrent des lignes directrices pour contribuer à l’évolution de la typologie des usages.Ces différents travaux permettent de proposer différentes pistes de développement de la typologie des usages existante dans l’entreprise. Celles-ci couvrent deux dimensions : 1) les données fournies par la typologie et leur mode de présentation ; 2) la méthode de mise à jour de ces données. / The main purpose of this research is based on identifying and analysing the usages diversity of complex technical systems, Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV), carried out by heterogeneous professional users so as to contribute to a typology of usages. The aim of the typology is to serve as an informational resource for the actors of the design process. This work revolves around two directions. ■ The first direction focuses on the analysis of the usages diversity so as to be able to put to the fore the structuring criteria. To this end, we propose a transversal analysis unit to all the activities: “the situated usages of a multi instrumented system (MIS)”. We define them as all the user’s actions directed towards a specific goal that performs a general and situated activity, and involves all or part of the MIS as a mediator or object of the activity. The MIS represents the sub-instrumental system built from a complex technical system by the user. The analyses are based on two sets of observations (exploratory and systematic ones) among a variety of users. The results show that there are wider dimensions to the several poles of the instrumented activity influencing the realization of the usages. Indeed, the user is having complex interrelations with the resources of his action and with the characteristics of the global activity allowed by the usages and the characteristics of the situation under which they are produced. Therefore there are different types of usages depending on the SMI position within the usage and the object of the usage.■ The second direction aims at a reduction of the usages diversity purpose so as to achieve of categorization. Creating a categorization implies the need to define an analysis unit that underlies the construction of categories and variables allowing their discrimination. To this end, we propose to highlight a second analysis unit, “the usages situations’ classes of a SMI”, to enable further generalization through variables that structure the usages.But the sole conception of a categorization is not sufficient enough compared to the company’s design characteristics and to the various informative needs of its actors. As a consequence we propose a first task to apprehend the understanding of the processes involved as well as the different agents’ assignments which contribute to this understanding and to the informational needs in terms of final users’ usages they may require. In order to do so, a series of semi structured interviews were held with those involved in design: 1) some tasks imply the necessity to take into account LCV usages; 2) the performing of distinct activities at various set times and/or design processes. The results offer guidelines to contribute to the evolution of the typology of usages.These various works conducted enable us to propose different ways of developing the existing typology of usages in the company. They cover two dimensions: 1) the data provided by typology itself and one’s way to present it; 2) the methodology used to update the data.

There has been an increase in the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the last 3 decades. A large share of these emissions is produced by the transport sector. In 2010 alone, global transport accounted for 7 GtCO2 eq and approximately 23% of total energy-related CO2 emissions. In order for the decarbonisation of the transport sector, one of the most important strategies is to reduce the use of fossil fuels. Fossil fuel consumption can be reduced by rolling out more battery electric vehicles (BEVs) on public roads. This is one of the methods by which the concept of electromobility is promoted. In order to increase the share of EVs, many countries have implemented different policies that promote the electrification of the transport sector. With respect to freight transport, electric commercial vans are one of the feasible choices.  This Master thesis involves a quantitative study which focus on the “total cost of ownership” (TCO) of light commercial vehicles (LCVs). Two diesel vans currently used in Curitiba, Brazil were selected - the Sprinter van by Mercedes-Benz and the Master van by Renault. In addition, their electric counterparts were also chosen; in conjunction, a sensitivity analysis with respect to fuel prices and annual distance driven was conducted. The results showed that the TCO of the electric LCVs is around 1.6 to 1.7 times higher than their diesel versions. As far as the two van model types were concerned, the Mercedes-Benz Sprinter had a higher TCO than the Renault Master over the chosen vehicle lifetime for both the diesel and electric versions, with the difference around 7.5% for the diesel versions and approximately 13% for the electric versions.  Based on the results of the TCO study, possible economic policies and fiscal instruments were recommended with regards to light commercial freight transport for Curitiba. / Det har skett en ökning av koldioxidutsläppen (CO2) under de senaste 3 decennierna. En stor del av dessa utsläpp produceras av transportsektorn. Bara 2010 svarade, global transport för 7 GtCO2 ekvivalenter och cirka 23% av de totala energirelaterade koldioxidutsläppen. För att avkolning av transportsektorn är en av de viktigaste strategierna att minska användningen av fossila bränslen. Fossil bränsleförbrukning kan minskas genom att rulla ut fler elektriska fordon (EF) på allmänna vägar när det gäller transportsektorn i allmänhet. Detta är en av metoderna som begreppet elektromobilitet främjas. För att öka andelen elbilar har många länder genomfört olika policyer som främjar elektrifiering av transportsektorn. När det gäller godstransport, är elektriska kommersiella lastbilar och skåpbilar två av de möjliga valen.  Detta examensarbete involverar en kvantitativ studie som fokuserar på “totala ägandekostnaderna” (TÄK) för lätta nyttofordon. Två dieselbilar som för närvarande används i Curitiba, Brasilien valdes - Sprinter-skåpbilen från Mercedes-Benz och Master-skåpbilen av Renault. Dessutom valdes deras elektriska motsvarigheter; i samband med detta genomfördes en känslighetsanalys avseende bränslepriser och årlig körd distans. Resultaten visade att T för elektriska LCV är cirka 1.6 till 1.7 gånger högre än deras dieselversioner. När det gäller de två typerna av skåpbilar hade Mercedes-Benz Sprinter en högre TCO än Renault Master under den valda fordonstiden för både diesel - och elektriska versioner, med skillnaden cirka 7.5% för dieselversionerna och cirka 13% för de elektriska versionerna.  Baserat på resultaten av TCO-studien rekommenderades möjlig ekonomisk politik och finanspolitiska instrument när det gäller lätt kommersiell godstransport för Curitiba.